Irish General Election Predictions [Part 2/2] Constituencies F – W – politicalbetting.com

MoonRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Maybe turnout is down in these states, or perhaps they're counting slowly, or both but currently:

% of 2 party turnout from last time:

88.99% CA
90.00% HI
92.44% NY
92.94% IL
92.94% OR
93.16% NJ
93.19% MA
93.48% MS
93.54% LA
93.85% DC
94.26% AK

Many Democrat votes from 2020 stayed home? Likely young people?

On 2020 dems are down 6,887,121

Trump is up 2,655,662

Votes cast 2020 158,427,986 65.8% turnout
2024 155,803,701 63.7%

It was actually a tight election.

The GOP can be soundly beaten in both PV and EC next time, without transferring a single vote to Dems. They are electorally on thin ice.

Leon said:

Just heard that one of my oldest and best friends is aiming to become a Tory MP in 2028-9!

Completely out of the blue. But she could easily do it. Very clever, very shrewd, strategically smart, a gift for geting on with anyone, and a book of contacts to kill for

Watch that space

"Very clever, very shrewd, strategically smart, a gift for geting[sic] on with anyone"? Is she sure she's chosen the right party?

FeersumEnjineeya said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kenObi said:

Taz said:

Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

A few more offshore wind turbines ?

Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.

We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority

Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.

Gas really needs to be the last resort though. We should only be burning gas when weather conditions are such that all other options - storage, demand management, etc - have reached their limit. Ideally the large power surplus at other times can then be used to extract CO2 from the atmosphere to acheive net zero emissions.

Gas will naturally be run down as we add more renewables to the grid. Every time a panel gets added to the grid, it is essentially producing power in perpetuity.

So, we need to stop worrying about natural gas (which is in the general scheme of things pretty unpolluting anyway), and make it as easy as possible for people to add new storage and renewables.

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

What gives you that understanding, do you have something to link to?

https://www.thesun.ie/news/13977484/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?

OldKingCole said:

This has appeared on the BBC website:

"An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

I'd characterise the foxes I would frequently encounter on the means streets of Islington as arrogant rather than sly. This is what happens when you don't hunt the buggers. That Birmingham pub should change its name to The Arrogant Fox, adorned with a sign depicting one attacking a baby.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-london-21420492

OldKingCole said:

This has appeared on the BBC website:

"An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

They should change it temporarily to The PETA Pillock.

Burgessian said:

bondegezou said:

Flatlander said:

If anyone is bothered...

"I am pleased to announce that our new Chancellor will be Lord Hague of Richmond, having achieved over 50% of the votes in the final stage of the election."

No dice for Mandelson in Oxford.

"in the final stage" -- so after transferring preferences?

Full result:

First Stage

Lord Hague: 9,589
Lady Elish Angiolini: 6,296
Baroness Jan Royall: 3,599
Lord Peter Mandelson: 2,940
Rt Hon Dominic Grieve: 2,484 (eliminated and votes transferred)

Second Stage

Lord Hague: 10,472
Lady Elish Angiolini: 6,915
Baroness Jan Royall: 3,945
Lord Peter Mandelson: 3,344 (eliminated and votes transferred)

Third Stage

Lord Hague: 11,766
Lady Elish Angiolini: 7,727
Baroness Jan Royall: 4,662 (eliminated and votes transferred)

Final Stage

Lord Hague: 12,609 (Elected)
Lady Elish Angiolini: 11,006

Mandy flopped somewhat. I think he has his hat in the ring for Ambassador to US
though.

The alumni actively voted against a current head of college being appointed, which I think was the right decision.

FWIW I was actively canvassed by a former colleague of Hague’s on his behalf

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?

There to be "usefully impotent', in Patten's words.

turbotubbs said:

OldKingCole said:

This has appeared on the BBC website:

"An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

Arguably not! Possibly retired or perhaps not in work.

Utterly bonkers.

On the other hand, PETA have got themselves on to the BBC website. That may, perhaps, have been the point.

rcs1000 said:

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?

Errrrrr.

Did you mean to reply to another comment perhaps?

Probably 🤦‍♀️

Or this might be your rapid fire quiz round.

Does LA have flies all year round, or do some hide in cracks for a bit anyway?

Is it true British Baked beans are far superior to US baked beans?

Birds of doom keep being washed up on California beaches, worried yet?

OldKingCole said:

This has appeared on the BBC website:

"An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

Don't tell them about Beatrix Potter. Keep them away from Jemima Puddleduck.

rcs1000 said:

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

What gives you that understanding, do you have something to link to?

https://www.thesun.ie/news/13977484/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Yet more evidence of people fleeing the UK under a Labour government!

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Taz said:

Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

A few more offshore wind turbines ?

Solar. Solar. Solar.

You think I'm joking, but panel prices have absolutely collapsed, and it's getting economic to put them up pretty much everywhere now.

And electric cars are the perfect complement to intermittent power generation, because they can soak up excess power produced by renewables thanks to their batteries.

No, that makes sense.
Increasingly so, even at our latitude and low levels of sunshine.

But the big wind projects will carry on for quite a while, as the two are complementary, and battery prices aren't cheap enough (nor production volumes high enough) to cover the intermittency gap.

Incidentally, there are some studies suggesting it will soon be most economic just to massively overbuild solar (like 5-10 times), to generate sufficient power even in winter, rather than trying to fill the most stubborn intermittency gaps with more than a day's worth of storage. /

That's pretty much 100% true. At a certain price of solar panel, it becomes the default option.

And it's amazing how few people have caught up with this yet.

And solar is still hugely under-used on domestic roofs, factories, car parks, pretty much everywhere.

Carnyx said:

bondegezou said:

Flatlander said:

If anyone is bothered...

"I am pleased to announce that our new Chancellor will be Lord Hague of Richmond, having achieved over 50% of the votes in the final stage of the election."

No dice for Mandelson in Oxford.

"in the final stage" -- so after transferring preferences?

Indeed. I wondered how Elish Angiolini did, being a Scots lawyer and former Solicitor General etc. at Holyrood, and on investigation she was coming very fast up the last straight behind Lord H when they passed the post.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2024-11-27-lord-hague-richmond-elected-new-chancellor-
oxford-university

The second to last was also a university president (on was Hugh’s and the other Somerville).

I voted against both on principle: the chancellor should be an outside not someone promoted from the executive. Basic governance requirement

Selebian said:

kjh said:

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?

It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.

Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions?

I might be one of the courses I suppose.

kjh said:

Selebian said:

kjh said:

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?

It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.

Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions?

I might be one of the courses I suppose.

Well don’t go all woke at the last minute. Remember we must maintain a bridge to the past, for stability, structure and purpose.

turbotubbs said:

rcs1000 said:

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?

Errrrrr.

Did you mean to reply to another comment perhaps?

As I always said, the best part of a cheese sandwich is the crust.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pygmy_hippopotamus

Selebian said:

kjh said:

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?

It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.

Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions?

We once googled 'personal chair' and a rather risque inflatable was offered, with some sort of spike that you are supposed to sit on...

Eabhal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kenObi said:

Taz said:

Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

A few more offshore wind turbines ?

Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.

We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority

Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.

Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby

Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

(And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).

70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

Unless it means 70GWh?

Malmesbury said:

Eabhal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kenObi said:

Taz said:

Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

A few more offshore wind turbines ?

Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.

We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority

Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.

Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby

Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

(And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).

70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

Unless it means 70GWh?

Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?

It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

I'm enjoying November.

I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

OldKingCole said:

This has appeared on the BBC website:

"An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

PETA have always been performative nutcases.

Selebian said:

Malmesbury said:

Eabhal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kenObi said:

Taz said:

Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

A few more offshore wind turbines ?

Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.

We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority

Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.

Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby

Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

(And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).

70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

Unless it means 70GWh?

Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?

That said, 70GW would be a lot, enough to cover current peak demand, I think? So 70GWh probably more likely and at lower max power?

Selebian said:

Malmesbury said:

Eabhal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kenObi said:

Taz said:

Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

A few more offshore wind turbines ?

Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.

We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority

Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.

Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby

Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

(And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).

70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

Unless it means 70GWh?

Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?

Correct. We have about 3GW of potential output from hydro at the moment, storage of 24GWh.

I think total storage (battery and hydro) in development is about 200GWh.

bondegezou said:

kjh said:

It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

I'm enjoying November.

I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.

Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.

kjh said:

Selebian said:

kjh said:

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?

It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.

Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions?

I might be one of the courses I suppose.

"The swan is excellent," said the Dean. "A fine bird and the widgeon gives it a certain gamin flavour."

France says Netanyahu has 'immunity' from ICC arrest warrants

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241127-france-says-netanyahu-has-immunity-from-icc-warrants

Carnyx said:

kjh said:

Selebian said:

kjh said:

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?

It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.

Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions?

I might be one of the courses I suppose.

"The swan is excellent," said the Dean. "A fine bird and the widgeon gives it a certain gamin flavour."

Tom Sharpe was a friend of mine's god father.

And in other news that may become more prominent:

"JUST NOW: After launching a shock offensive this morning, the Syrian opposition is just 5 miles away from entering Aleppo City.

They've barrelled through regime and Russian positions — taking over a dozen villages in Aleppo province."

https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1861784431951843476

Edit:
https://defence-blog.com/syrian-rebels-launch-major-offensive/

rcs1000 said:

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cicero said:

JosiasJessop said:

Cicero said:

Cookie said:

JosiasJessop said:

1 Russian Ruble now equals 0.0089 United States Dollar.

It's quite fun watching this.

Is this ACTUALLY the Ruble declining, or it the Dollar appreciating?

The Rouble is heading towards free fall. It is falling as fast against the Euro and other currencies too.

As someone else said, it's falling similarly against the Euro:
https://www.xe.com/en-gb/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=RUB&To=EUR

And interestingly, the Chinese Yuan:
https://www.xe.com/en-gb/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=RUB&To=CNY

Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Bank Rossii, was looking pretty grim a few days ago. Interest rates at 21% and set to rise further in December. Meanwhile massive and unsustainable hikes in military spending, the economy overheating and even more sanctions. It looks like they have run out of reserves to defend the currency.

If the RUR collapses against the Yuan then it could well be game over.

That is a real concern and what would you expect to follow that event ?

The Rouble falls apart and they can not pay the bills. China could step in to rescue, but that is quite a risky option.

I think a much bigger problem for Russia is the extent to which production and distribution of basic foodstuffs has been affected by the war. Putin's desire to shield the youth in St Petersberg and Moscow from conscription has meant that Russia has had to rely on the rural young, and that's having a significant impact on farm production. The prices of fresh vegetables have nearly doubled this year.

I don't think that's sustainable.

Yes, and that is not the only massive distortion in their economy, it is causing significant power distribution problems too.

Another raft of local by-elections tomorrow mainly caused by new MPs resigning their council seats. A fairly simple picture with Lab defences in Barking and Dagenham(x3), Enfield, Fife, Islington, Sheffield, and West Dunbartonshire; together with LD defences in South Gloucestershire and York. Once again no Con defences.

Cookie said:

Malmesbury said:

algarkirk said:

Jim_Miller said:

Related, very loosely, to the header: For some time I have been speculating that national flags with specific meanings -- for example, those of the US and the UK -- belong to nations that are proud of their history, while anonymous tri-colors belong to nations that aren't.

A well confirmed hypothesis, true beyond all doubt. At this moment there isn't a single thing in the whole of the last 3000 years of history that any Italian or French person could take the smallest bit of pride in.

Lots of colonialism and neo-colonialism, racism (see colonialism)....

Suggesting that there is anything to be proud of in that history makes you literally worse than that guy who is literally worse than Hitler.

Many tricolours do have specific meanings.
France: Liberty, equality, fraternity.
Germany: The colours of the army which fought against Napoleon
Belgium: Three of the 7(?) provinces which made up Belgium, I think? (What about the other four?)
Ireland: Catholics, Protestants and the hope that they can live in peace together.

I'm sure there are many more.

Blue is often used to represent the sea or the sky. Thus Ukraine is yellow for the grain and blue for the sky.

Kinell. 4pm. Stygian

rcs1000 said:

MikeL said:

Dems took the lead last night in CA House District 13 - after Reps had led all the way until now.

Current House position:

Reps 219, Dems 213

Three races still to call:

CA 13 - Dem leads by 182 votes (out of 208,000 total)
CA 45 - Dem leads by 613 votes (out of 315,000 total)
IA 1 - Rep leads by 798 votes (out of 413,000 total)

So if the leader wins in all three remaining races the final result will be:

Reps 220, Dems 215

Except, there are three Republicans who have either resigned (Matt Gaetz), or about to resign to take up roles in the administration (Michael Waltz and Elise Stefanik).

That means that the vote will be 217 vs 215 until the special elections happen. (The Florida 1st is not until April 1, for example.)

Just to add: it's not inconceivable that the New York 21st (Elisa Stefanik) could end up flipping. It's a 60:40 district, but if Democrats are fired up, and turnout is low, they stand a chance.

Somewhat dystopian BBC News advert framing itself as leading the fight against disinformation:

https://www.bbccreative.co.uk/project/bbc-news-trust-is-earned-2/

Labour List has just updated its list of Labour MP declared positions on Assisted Dying. It is now:

For 83
Against 52

(Approx two thirds undecided or unknown)

https://labourlist.org/2024/11/assisted-dying-bill-labour-mps-kim-leadbeater/

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jeremy Moody the secretary and adviser to the CAAV said the measures will in fact hit 2,500 farmers each year, five times the Treasury’s estimates.

While the Government has insisted that this analysis incorporates claims for both BPR and APR combined, Mr Moody said it has approached the calculation in the wrong way.

The Treasury analysis was based on how many estates claimed APR and then claimed BPR, but this has “completely missed” the people who are farmers but only claim BPR, Mr Moody said.

The Treasury and the BBC’s analysis has therefore missed people who own the land but do not own the farmhouse (such as those in farming partnerships), people who only have tenanted businesses and therefore do not own land or buildings, and farmers who are shareholders in family companies.

Over a generation, Mr Moody said 75,000 farms will be affected by the changes.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/27/tractor-tax-hits-five-times-more-farmers-reeves-claims/

Not surprising the BBC Verify matches the Treasury, as the Treasury policy is taken from work of the same individual who BBC Verified used.

The Treasury then was only out by a factor of 5, which is actually quite good for government guesses.

I remember the Home Office forecasting that 13,000 East Europeans would come when we allowed them to work here, and four or five million came, so a factor of three or four hundred.

Is that the all time record miss on an important matter?

rcs1000 said:

Carnyx said:

kjh said:

Selebian said:

kjh said:

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

bondegezou said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.

The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.

The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.

I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.

My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.

But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?

It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.

Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions?

I might be one of the courses I suppose.

"The swan is excellent," said the Dean. "A fine bird and the widgeon gives it a certain gamin flavour."

Tom Sharpe was a friend of mine's god father.

The college is Peterhouse and I keep having to think before saying it to ensure I don't say Porterhouse. If I drop that clanger on the night I might end up as one of the dishes.

OldKingCole said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

kjh said:

bondegezou said:

kjh said:

It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

I'm enjoying November.

I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.

Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.

I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!

Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.

In Simone de Buevoir's autobiography she wrote something like

At 35, I felt essentially the same as I did at 25

At 45, the same as 35. And at 55, the same as 45.

It was only at 65 that I felt noticably different to how I was a decade before.

I'm glad that 85 is the new 65.

Of course, she smoked like a chimney too.

Malmesbury said:

Selebian said:

Malmesbury said:

Eabhal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kenObi said:

Taz said:

Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

A few more offshore wind turbines ?

Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.

We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority

Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.

Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby

Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

(And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).

70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

Unless it means 70GWh?

Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?

Instantaneous load is pretty meaningless without storage “depth”

Even at the grid smoothing time scale.

Aren't we at the pont now where it makes sense to just put panels on every roof instead of tiles since they're cheaper or at least equivalent in cost? I know when I recently re-roofed the solar panels weren't any more expensive than tiles per m2. But you'd also need to add in battery storage etc which adds to the cost since export rates are so poor.

Eabhal said:

Malmesbury said:

Eabhal said:

Selebian said:

Malmesbury said:

Eabhal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kenObi said:

Taz said:

Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

A few more offshore wind turbines ?

Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.

We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority

Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.

Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby

Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

(And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).

70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

Unless it means 70GWh?

Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?

Correct. We have about 3GW of potential output from hydro at the moment, storage of 24GWh.

I think total storage (battery and hydro) in development is about 200GWh.

Which is about 5 hours of grid usage, IIRC.

More like 10, after taking into account nuclear and max imports from Europe.

If you consider we are going to treble our wind power, weakest extended period over the past year is equivalent to about 10GW, so that would give us 19 hours.

But in that scenario, we'd have fired up the gas to tide us over.

Whole new business models will no doubt emerge to take advantage of cheap electricity for most of the time in return for being prepared to shut down when supplies are tight. I'm sure demand management will play at least as big a role as storage in the future.

linto said:

Malmesbury said:

Selebian said:

Malmesbury said:

Eabhal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kenObi said:

Taz said:

Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

A few more offshore wind turbines ?

Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.

We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority

Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.

Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby

Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

(And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).

70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

Unless it means 70GWh?

Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?

Instantaneous load is pretty meaningless without storage “depth”

Even at the grid smoothing time scale.

Aren't we at the pont now where it makes sense to just put panels on every roof instead of tiles since they're cheaper or at least equivalent in cost? I know when I recently re-roofed the solar panels weren't any more expensive than tiles per m2. But you'd also need to add in battery storage etc which adds to the cost since export rates are so poor.

They appear to be no more expensive than fence panels. Something wrong there, surely.

OldKingCole said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

kjh said:

bondegezou said:

kjh said:

It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

I'm enjoying November.

I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.

Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.

I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!

Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.

Unfortunately, it can go wrong a lot earlier than that...

OldKingCole said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

kjh said:

bondegezou said:

kjh said:

It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

I'm enjoying November.

I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.

Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.

I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!

Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.

And me !!!!!

Though the medics have done a good job so far for me

viewcode said:

OldKingCole said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

kjh said:

bondegezou said:

kjh said:

It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

I'm enjoying November.

I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.

Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.

I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!

Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.

Unfortunately, it can go wrong a lot earlier than that...

Tell me about it...

rcs1000 said:

OldKingCole said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

kjh said:

bondegezou said:

kjh said:

It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

I'm enjoying November.

I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.

Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.

I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!

Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.

In Simone de Buevoir's autobiography she wrote something like

At 35, I felt essentially the same as I did at 25

At 45, the same as 35. And at 55, the same as 45.

It was only at 65 that I felt noticably different to how I was a decade before.

I'm glad that 85 is the new 65.

Of course, she smoked like a chimney too.

You look radically different between 5 and 15, and between 15 and 25. But from 25 to 55 you look about the same. But then you "go over" and you look radically different between 55 and 65. And it's all downhill from there. Between 25 and 55 you just need exercise, skincare, dentistry, a good diet, possibly dye. But from 55 onwards you need plastic surgery to look like the same person, and a lot of it as you continue to age.

JosiasJessop said:

Malmesbury said:

LostPassword said:

biggles said:

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

Good morning. Thanks to the Daily Mail I now know that it is Labour's fault that the EV sales mandates set by the Tories are unachievable.

There is something distasteful about legislation which fines manufacturers because their customers want, or don't want, to buy particular numbers of a lawful product.

The trouble is the alternative is some sort of taxation on ICE cars (an effective subsidy for EVs), which most voters would be extremely pissed about. Hence the tax rise on employer NICs rather than income tax, and the incoherent freezing of fuel duty.

I think the work needs to be done on why people are resistant to move to EVs. Needs a proper survey but speaking for myself:

1) Nice ones aren’t cheap, especially vs. nearly new normal cars - Gvt can help by subsidising if we want to increase take up.

2) I am nervous of second hand batteries. More so than of engines. I might need educating.

3) I am not convinced the recharging infrastructure is in place and don’t want to wait to recharge. Gvt can fix this.

4) I like powerful cars that go vroom. Gvt cannot fix this.

Because of number 4 I am unlikely to switch in my lifetime. And I’m only 40.

I think that's a good list.

The government cut subsidy too early.

On the second-hand batteries I would like to see a standard battery test that could be done and could form the basis of an insurance-backed guarantee. I think that would create confidence in second-hand battery electric car sales.

On the recharging infrastructure this is exactly like home insulation. Governments love to talk about doing it and it never seems to happen in the volume required to make a difference. It's so frustrating because it's so obvious.

On the vroom, from what I've heard the pickup and acceleration on electric cars can be impressive. Give a good one a test drive and you might surprise yourself and be won over. I've heard from a few people who were sceptical but we're strong converts after direct experience.

The acceleration on most modern electric cars is devastating.

This is a function of having a flat torque curve - max torque is available from zero.

And, to get decent range, regenerative brakes. That is, the motor runs in reverse to put leccy back in the battery. This requires a powerful motor and the ability for the electronics to handle a big current going in/out of the battery.

This is why a number of electric 4 door saloons are 4 second cars.

At this point, someone often asks if using a smaller motor would increase range or decrease power usage. The answer is “not really” - electric motors are a fraction of the weight of ICE engines. Making them a bit smaller has next to no effect on overall weight.

Acceleration is the most effing pointless metric in cars; almost all cars nowadays have an acceleration that is perfectly acceptable for everyday use. Those who obsess about acceleration tend to be rather (ahem) silly.

(I was saying this before the advent of electric cars, ever since my brother bought one of the first Lotus Elise's.... )

This is true. A couple of years ago we inherited my mother-in-laws VW Passat. All I knew about Passats before that was the Zoe Williams review that complained about how sluggishly they accelerated. So imagine my surprise when I found that the acceleration was actually much faster than on our previous car, a Skoda Octavia, which I had honestly always enjoyed legitimately flooring it when on a slip road and getting up to speed to join a motorway.

But for someone who chooses cars on the basis of the vroom potential it will be relevant.