Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Irish General Election Predictions [Part 2/2] Constituencies F – W – politicalbetting.com

124

Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967

    Many Democrat votes from 2020 stayed home? Likely young people?

    On 2020 dems are down 6,887,121

    Trump is up 2,655,662

    Votes cast 2020 158,427,986 65.8% turnout
    2024 155,803,701 63.7%

    It was actually a tight election.
    The GOP can be soundly beaten in both PV and EC next time, without transferring a single vote to Dems. They are electorally on thin ice.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,136
    Leon said:

    Just heard that one of my oldest and best friends is aiming to become a Tory MP in 2028-9!

    Completely out of the blue. But she could easily do it. Very clever, very shrewd, strategically smart, a gift for geting on with anyone, and a book of contacts to kill for

    Watch that space

    "Very clever, very shrewd, strategically smart, a gift for geting[sic] on with anyone"? Is she sure she's chosen the right party? :lol:
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,724

    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824

    Gas really needs to be the last resort though. We should only be burning gas when weather conditions are such that all other options - storage, demand management, etc - have reached their limit. Ideally the large power surplus at other times can then be used to extract CO2 from the atmosphere to acheive net zero emissions.
    Gas will naturally be run down as we add more renewables to the grid. Every time a panel gets added to the grid, it is essentially producing power in perpetuity.

    So, we need to stop worrying about natural gas (which is in the general scheme of things pretty unpolluting anyway), and make it as easy as possible for people to add new storage and renewables.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,316

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    Arguably not! Possibly retired or perhaps not in work.

    Utterly bonkers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824

    What gives you that understanding, do you have something to link to?
    https://www.thesun.ie/news/13977484/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    rcs1000 said:

    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,724
    malcolmg said:

    Why, England will steal it for sure and make us pay 3x to get any back.
    I should've clarified about the 16GW consumption - that's all energy consumption, including that from gas boilers, ICE cars and ferries.
  • This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    I'd characterise the foxes I would frequently encounter on the means streets of Islington as arrogant rather than sly. This is what happens when you don't hunt the buggers. That Birmingham pub should change its name to The Arrogant Fox, adorned with a sign depicting one attacking a baby.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-london-21420492
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824
    kenObi said:

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    Eventually, there will be so much solar capacity, that even on the darkest day of the year and even if it overcast all (the short) day, that 24 hours worth of UK electricity will be generated.

    It's the inevitable consequence of continued falling solar panel prices.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,163

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    They should change it temporarily to The PETA Pillock.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,321

    Full result:

    First Stage

    Lord Hague: 9,589
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 6,296
    Baroness Jan Royall: 3,599
    Lord Peter Mandelson: 2,940
    Rt Hon Dominic Grieve: 2,484 (eliminated and votes transferred)

    Second Stage

    Lord Hague: 10,472
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 6,915
    Baroness Jan Royall: 3,945
    Lord Peter Mandelson: 3,344 (eliminated and votes transferred)

    Third Stage

    Lord Hague: 11,766
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 7,727
    Baroness Jan Royall: 4,662 (eliminated and votes transferred)

    Final Stage

    Lord Hague: 12,609 (Elected)
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 11,006

    Mandy flopped somewhat. I think he has his hat in the ring for Ambassador to US
    though.
    The alumni actively voted against a current head of college being appointed, which I think was the right decision.

    FWIW I was actively canvassed by a former colleague of Hague’s on his behalf
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824

    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    Errrrrr.

    Did you mean to reply to another comment perhaps?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,163

    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    There to be "usefully impotent', in Patten's words.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    rcs1000 said:

    https://www.thesun.ie/news/13977484/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
    That’s not fitting the narrative of one term government due to incompetence. Who’s side are you on 😠
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,136

    Arguably not! Possibly retired or perhaps not in work.

    Utterly bonkers.
    On the other hand, PETA have got themselves on to the BBC website. That may, perhaps, have been the point.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,724
    Nigelb said:

    No, that makes sense.
    Increasingly so, even at our latitude and low levels of sunshine.

    But the big wind projects will carry on for quite a while, as the two are complementary, and battery prices aren't cheap enough (nor production volumes high enough) to cover the intermittency gap.

    Incidentally, there are some studies suggesting it will soon be most economic just to massively overbuild solar (like 5-10 times), to generate sufficient power even in winter, rather than trying to fill the most stubborn intermittency gaps with more than a day's worth of storage.
    Won't that cheap electricity during the summer induce massive consumer and industrial demand, so we'll always be chasing storage during the winter? There will always be a value in balancing output through the year.

    I'm thinking a bit how GPUs keep getting better, but the games keep getting better too.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    edited November 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    Errrrrr.

    Did you mean to reply to another comment perhaps?
    Probably 🤦‍♀️

    Or this might be your rapid fire quiz round.

    Does LA have flies all year round, or do some hide in cracks for a bit anyway?

    Is it true British Baked beans are far superior to US baked beans?

    Birds of doom keep being washed up on California beaches, worried yet?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,316

    I'd characterise the foxes I would frequently encounter on the means streets of Islington as arrogant rather than sly. This is what happens when you don't hunt the buggers. That Birmingham pub should change its name to The Arrogant Fox, adorned with a sign depicting one attacking a baby.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-london-21420492
    I'd go with the Lawyer in Wife's Kimono, with a sign of a fox being bludgeoned to death by said lawyer.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,644

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    Don't tell them about Beatrix Potter. Keep them away from Jemima Puddleduck.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,163
    rcs1000 said:

    That's pretty much 100% true. At a certain price of solar panel, it becomes the default option.

    And it's amazing how few people have caught up with this yet.
    That's because all of this stuff is coming from China; there's an instinctive reluctance to accept it, I think.
    Which is a bit silly considering it's all on top of a western technology base. We just lacked the political will to spend the money to build it fast.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,136
    rcs1000 said:

    https://www.thesun.ie/news/13977484/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
    Yet more evidence of people fleeing the UK under a Labour government!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,316
    rcs1000 said:

    Errrrrr.

    Did you mean to reply to another comment perhaps?
    As I always said, the best part of a cheese sandwich is the crust.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,421
    rcs1000 said:

    That's pretty much 100% true. At a certain price of solar panel, it becomes the default option.

    And it's amazing how few people have caught up with this yet.
    And solar is still hugely under-used on domestic roofs, factories, car parks, pretty much everywhere.
  • rcs1000 said:

    https://www.thesun.ie/news/13977484/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
    If that trend continues it should send a chill down the spin of every Tory and Reform supporter. If Sir Keir can portray himself as immigrant-basher-in-chief then his pasta sauce and Rachel's CV will matter not one jot.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,136
    kjh said:

    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,321
    Carnyx said:

    Indeed. I wondered how Elish Angiolini did, being a Scots lawyer and former Solicitor General etc. at Holyrood, and on investigation she was coming very fast up the last straight behind Lord H when they passed the post.

    https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2024-11-27-lord-hague-richmond-elected-new-chancellor-
    oxford-university
    The second to last was also a university president (on was Hugh’s and the other Somerville).

    I voted against both on principle: the chancellor should be an outside not someone promoted from the executive. Basic governance requirement
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,586

    If that trend continues it should send a chill down the spin of every Tory and Reform supporter. If Sir Keir can portray himself as immigrant-basher-in-chief then his pasta sauce and Rachel's CV will matter not one jot.
    Did the *UK* Sun actually report that? Yes, it did ... forget the pasta sauce, then.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/30977601/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,298
    Selebian said:

    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    I might be one of the courses I suppose.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,136
    Selebian said:

    On the other hand, PETA have got themselves on to the BBC website. That may, perhaps, have been the point.

    The pub's defence should really be that they're named for the disgraced former defence secretary, not the animal :wink:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    kjh said:

    I might be one of the courses I suppose.
    Well don’t go all woke at the last minute. Remember we must maintain a bridge to the past, for stability, structure and purpose.

  • ‪Lewis Goodall‬ ‪@lewisgoodall.com‬
    ·
    54m
    Mishal Husain one of the very best broadcasters/interviewers the BBC has. Massive loss to the corporation.

    https://bsky.app/profile/lewisgoodall.com/post/3lbwrvbezhc23
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,617

    As I always said, the best part of a cheese sandwich is the crust.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pygmy_hippopotamus
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,163
    Eabhal said:

    Won't that cheap electricity during the summer induce massive consumer and industrial demand, so we'll always be chasing storage during the winter? There will always be a value in balancing output through the year.

    I'm thinking a bit how GPUs keep getting better, but the games keep getting better too.
    We haven't yet adjusted to the idea of power abundance.
    It's going to change an awful lot of things (though given the still real constraints on overall global panel manufacturing capacity, it will take a while).

    The UK is something of an outlier anyway - most of the world's population lives in areas better insolated. Some far better.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,316
    Selebian said:

    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    We once googled 'personal chair' and a rather risque inflatable was offered, with some sort of spike that you are supposed to sit on...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052
    This is an interesting research question: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304393219302004

    Basically, Trump being an inconsistent nutter who randomly said things hit Investment. “Trade policy uncertainty reduced U.S. investment by about 1.5% in 2018.”

    This will all happen again with Trump currently talking about introducing big tariffs in day 1.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,429
    Eabhal said:

    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,136

    We once googled 'personal chair' and a rather risque inflatable was offered, with some sort of spike that you are supposed to sit on...
    Oh! :open_mouth: I was thinking more of Granny Weatherwax being offered a chair by Ridcully.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,136

    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,956
    Nigelb said:

    She was the local candidate, having been Principal of St Hugh's for over a decade.
    So not a surprise she picked up a heap of third preferences. Hague's big lead on first preferences is a pretty strong endorsement for a Tory politician, in the wake of the last decade of government.
    But when he was politically active, was Hague incompetent? Was he corrupt and self-serving?

    It may be that Hague is not a proper Conservative..... We must consult HY......
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,298
    It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

    My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

    I'm enjoying November.

    I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,429
    Selebian said:

    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    Instantaneous load is pretty meaningless without storage “depth”

    Even at the grid smoothing time scale.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    PETA have always been performative nutcases.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,136
    Selebian said:

    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    That said, 70GW would be a lot, enough to cover current peak demand, I think? So 70GWh probably more likely and at lower max power?

  • ‪Lewis Goodall‬ ‪@lewisgoodall.com‬
    ·
    54m
    Mishal Husain one of the very best broadcasters/interviewers the BBC has. Massive loss to the corporation.

    https://bsky.app/profile/lewisgoodall.com/post/3lbwrvbezhc23

    Going to Bloomberg, apparently. Presumably for a higher salary and certainly for one that is confidential and isn't a political football.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,724
    Selebian said:

    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    Correct. We have about 3GW of potential output from hydro at the moment, storage of 24GWh.

    I think total storage (battery and hydro) in development is about 200GWh.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,298
    edited November 2024

    PETA have always been performative nutcases.
    Whoops post to the wrong post. Too much celebrating by me.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,298
    edited November 2024

    Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.
    Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.
  • PETA have always been performative nutcases.
    I was wondering whether the problem they have is with the ageist nature of the name or the suggestion that a fox could be deceitful? Or is it the combination?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,586
    edited November 2024
    kjh said:

    I might be one of the courses I suppose.
    "The swan is excellent," said the Dean. "A fine bird and the widgeon gives it a certain gamin flavour."
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967

    We once googled 'personal chair' and a rather risque inflatable was offered, with some sort of spike that you are supposed to sit on...
    Do you still have the link?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    Dems took the lead last night in CA House District 13 - after Reps had led all the way until now.

    Current House position:

    Reps 219, Dems 213

    Three races still to call:

    CA 13 - Dem leads by 182 votes (out of 208,000 total)
    CA 45 - Dem leads by 613 votes (out of 315,000 total)
    IA 1 - Rep leads by 798 votes (out of 413,000 total)

    So if the leader wins in all three remaining races the final result will be:

    Reps 220, Dems 215
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824
    Carnyx said:

    "The swan is excellent," said the Dean. "A fine bird and the widgeon gives it a certain gamin flavour."
    Tom Sharpe was a friend of mine's god father.
  • Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.
    I have one every 4 years !!!!

    So my 80th was only my 20th actual birthday, and it has caused confusion throughout my life, no more so then as a child when I had 2 as my Mother and Father couldn't agree a date

    My Mother said I was born in February, and my Father said not the 28th, so I had the 1st March as well !!!!!!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,858
    edited November 2024
    And in other news that may become more prominent:

    "JUST NOW: After launching a shock offensive this morning, the Syrian opposition is just 5 miles away from entering Aleppo City.

    They've barrelled through regime and Russian positions — taking over a dozen villages in Aleppo province."

    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1861784431951843476

    Edit:
    https://defence-blog.com/syrian-rebels-launch-major-offensive/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,400

    I'd characterise the foxes I would frequently encounter on the means streets of Islington as arrogant rather than sly. This is what happens when you don't hunt the buggers. That Birmingham pub should change its name to The Arrogant Fox, adorned with a sign depicting one attacking a baby.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-london-21420492
    Personally I would prefer to be referred to as a sly old fox.

    I leave baby eating to the PB Tories.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,285
    rcs1000 said:

    I think a much bigger problem for Russia is the extent to which production and distribution of basic foodstuffs has been affected by the war. Putin's desire to shield the youth in St Petersberg and Moscow from conscription has meant that Russia has had to rely on the rural young, and that's having a significant impact on farm production. The prices of fresh vegetables have nearly doubled this year.

    I don't think that's sustainable.
    Yes, and that is not the only massive distortion in their economy, it is causing significant power distribution problems too.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,316

    Do you still have the link?
    Naughty. Google it on your own device1
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,136
    Another raft of local by-elections tomorrow mainly caused by new MPs resigning their council seats. A fairly simple picture with Lab defences in Barking and Dagenham(x3), Enfield, Fife, Islington, Sheffield, and West Dunbartonshire; together with LD defences in South Gloucestershire and York. Once again no Con defences.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,316

    And in other news that may become more prominent:

    "JUST NOW: After launching a shock offensive this morning, the Syrian opposition is just 5 miles away from entering Aleppo City.

    They've barrelled through regime and Russian positions — taking over a dozen villages in Aleppo province."

    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1861784431951843476

    Operation 'Die Wacht Am Rhein" was pretty successful at the start too.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,136
    Cookie said:

    Many tricolours do have specific meanings.
    France: Liberty, equality, fraternity.
    Germany: The colours of the army which fought against Napoleon
    Belgium: Three of the 7(?) provinces which made up Belgium, I think? (What about the other four?)
    Ireland: Catholics, Protestants and the hope that they can live in peace together.

    I'm sure there are many more.
    Blue is often used to represent the sea or the sky. Thus Ukraine is yellow for the grain and blue for the sky.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,000

    And in other news that may become more prominent:

    "JUST NOW: After launching a shock offensive this morning, the Syrian opposition is just 5 miles away from entering Aleppo City.

    They've barrelled through regime and Russian positions — taking over a dozen villages in Aleppo province."

    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1861784431951843476

    Edit:
    https://defence-blog.com/syrian-rebels-launch-major-offensive/

    13 year old war !
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Kinell. 4pm. Stygian
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824
    MikeL said:

    Dems took the lead last night in CA House District 13 - after Reps had led all the way until now.

    Current House position:

    Reps 219, Dems 213

    Three races still to call:

    CA 13 - Dem leads by 182 votes (out of 208,000 total)
    CA 45 - Dem leads by 613 votes (out of 315,000 total)
    IA 1 - Rep leads by 798 votes (out of 413,000 total)

    So if the leader wins in all three remaining races the final result will be:

    Reps 220, Dems 215

    Except, there are three Republicans who have either resigned (Matt Gaetz), or about to resign to take up roles in the administration (Michael Waltz and Elise Stefanik).

    That means that the vote will be 217 vs 215 until the special elections happen. (The Florida 1st is not until April 1, for example.)

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824
    rcs1000 said:

    Except, there are three Republicans who have either resigned (Matt Gaetz), or about to resign to take up roles in the administration (Michael Waltz and Elise Stefanik).

    That means that the vote will be 217 vs 215 until the special elections happen. (The Florida 1st is not until April 1, for example.)

    Just to add: it's not inconceivable that the New York 21st (Elisa Stefanik) could end up flipping. It's a 60:40 district, but if Democrats are fired up, and turnout is low, they stand a chance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,947
    edited November 2024
    Jeremy Moody the secretary and adviser to the CAAV said the measures will in fact hit 2,500 farmers each year, five times the Treasury’s estimates.

    While the Government has insisted that this analysis incorporates claims for both BPR and APR combined, Mr Moody said it has approached the calculation in the wrong way.

    The Treasury analysis was based on how many estates claimed APR and then claimed BPR, but this has “completely missed” the people who are farmers but only claim BPR, Mr Moody said.

    The Treasury and the BBC’s analysis has therefore missed people who own the land but do not own the farmhouse (such as those in farming partnerships), people who only have tenanted businesses and therefore do not own land or buildings, and farmers who are shareholders in family companies.

    Over a generation, Mr Moody said 75,000 farms will be affected by the changes.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/27/tractor-tax-hits-five-times-more-farmers-reeves-claims/

    Not surprising the BBC Verify matches the Treasury, as the Treasury policy is taken from work of the same individual who BBC Verified used.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,118
    Somewhat dystopian BBC News advert framing itself as leading the fight against disinformation:

    https://www.bbccreative.co.uk/project/bbc-news-trust-is-earned-2/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,429
    Eabhal said:

    Correct. We have about 3GW of potential output from hydro at the moment, storage of 24GWh.

    I think total storage (battery and hydro) in development is about 200GWh.
    Which is about 5 hours of grid usage, IIRC.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    Labour List has just updated its list of Labour MP declared positions on Assisted Dying. It is now:

    For 83
    Against 52

    (Approx two thirds undecided or unknown)

    https://labourlist.org/2024/11/assisted-dying-bill-labour-mps-kim-leadbeater/
  • kjh said:

    Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.
    I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
    My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,394
    edited November 2024

    Jeremy Moody the secretary and adviser to the CAAV said the measures will in fact hit 2,500 farmers each year, five times the Treasury’s estimates.

    While the Government has insisted that this analysis incorporates claims for both BPR and APR combined, Mr Moody said it has approached the calculation in the wrong way.

    The Treasury analysis was based on how many estates claimed APR and then claimed BPR, but this has “completely missed” the people who are farmers but only claim BPR, Mr Moody said.

    The Treasury and the BBC’s analysis has therefore missed people who own the land but do not own the farmhouse (such as those in farming partnerships), people who only have tenanted businesses and therefore do not own land or buildings, and farmers who are shareholders in family companies.

    Over a generation, Mr Moody said 75,000 farms will be affected by the changes.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/27/tractor-tax-hits-five-times-more-farmers-reeves-claims/

    Not surprising the BBC Verify matches the Treasury, as the Treasury policy is taken from work of the same individual who BBC Verified used.

    The Treasury then was only out by a factor of 5, which is actually quite good for government guesses.

    I remember the Home Office forecasting that 13,000 East Europeans would come when we allowed them to work here, and four or five million came, so a factor of three or four hundred.

    Is that the all time record miss on an important matter?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,244

    I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
    My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!
    Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,298
    rcs1000 said:

    Tom Sharpe was a friend of mine's god father.
    The college is Peterhouse and I keep having to think before saying it to ensure I don't say Porterhouse. If I drop that clanger on the night I might end up as one of the dishes.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,244
    kjh said:

    The college is Peterhouse and I keep having to think before saying it to ensure I don't say Porterhouse. If I drop that clanger on the night I might end up as one of the dishes.
    Sounds like a great present.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,724

    Which is about 5 hours of grid usage, IIRC.
    More like 10, after taking into account nuclear and max imports from Europe.

    If you consider we are going to treble our wind power, weakest extended period over the past year is equivalent to about 10GW, so that would give us 19 hours.

    But in that scenario, we'd have fired up the gas to tide us over.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824

    Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.
    In Simone de Buevoir's autobiography she wrote something like

    At 35, I felt essentially the same as I did at 25

    At 45, the same as 35. And at 55, the same as 45.

    It was only at 65 that I felt noticably different to how I was a decade before.

    I'm glad that 85 is the new 65.

    Of course, she smoked like a chimney too.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,681
    Reform claiming that they are closing in on 100k members.

    https://www.reformparty.uk/join

    How are the Tories doing?
  • lintolinto Posts: 43

    Instantaneous load is pretty meaningless without storage “depth”

    Even at the grid smoothing time scale.
    Aren't we at the pont now where it makes sense to just put panels on every roof instead of tiles since they're cheaper or at least equivalent in cost? I know when I recently re-roofed the solar panels weren't any more expensive than tiles per m2. But you'd also need to add in battery storage etc which adds to the cost since export rates are so poor.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,947
    edited November 2024
    So it seems like the treasury / academic at Warwick university* has fundamentally misunderstood the structure of the farming business and as a result smaller scale tax dodgers and mega corps are unaffected, genuine farmers are in the firing line.

    * given his previous musings, it might be more deliberate than accidental, as very much thinks the state should own the means of production.
  • Eabhal said:

    More like 10, after taking into account nuclear and max imports from Europe.

    If you consider we are going to treble our wind power, weakest extended period over the past year is equivalent to about 10GW, so that would give us 19 hours.

    But in that scenario, we'd have fired up the gas to tide us over.
    Whole new business models will no doubt emerge to take advantage of cheap electricity for most of the time in return for being prepared to shut down when supplies are tight. I'm sure demand management will play at least as big a role as storage in the future.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824
    linto said:

    Aren't we at the pont now where it makes sense to just put panels on every roof instead of tiles since they're cheaper or at least equivalent in cost? I know when I recently re-roofed the solar panels weren't any more expensive than tiles per m2. But you'd also need to add in battery storage etc which adds to the cost since export rates are so poor.
    For residentials, we're closing in, but we're not there yet. (We're - say - about 3 years away.)

    If you're building a factory or a supermarket, mind, then you're probably there in all but the most northerly parts of the UK.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,852
    edited November 2024
    linto said:

    Aren't we at the pont now where it makes sense to just put panels on every roof instead of tiles since they're cheaper or at least equivalent in cost? I know when I recently re-roofed the solar panels weren't any more expensive than tiles per m2. But you'd also need to add in battery storage etc which adds to the cost since export rates are so poor.
    They appear to be no more expensive than fence panels. Something wrong there, surely.
  • They have approaching 12000 since end of July.

    Early instant impact of spending a fraction of the exorbitant amount wasted of Rwanda vanity project in to more focus on processing claims.

    They have specialist experienced teams working on oldest claims and newer newly recruited teams working on newer arrivals.

    Working the pipeline at both ends.

    Commonsense in any business very rare when Politicians are involved.

    A very clear example that when Starmer says he has run huge departments that he has and can walk the walk and not just talk.

    A PM with genuine managerial experience. Boring and bland maybe, lacking charisma probably but rolling his sleeves up and getting things done.
    The interminable strikes have stopped too, which must be helping to get things done.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755

    Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.
    Unfortunately, it can go wrong a lot earlier than that... :(
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    Leon said:

    Kinell. 4pm. Stygian

    Norman tore a strip off the back page of the Sun, turned it into shape of a stick, and twirled the stick around in his right ear. “Over there -“ he gestured, with his left flapper, “there’s a book - Magical Britain by Rob Wildwood. Take a look.”
    “Where, exactly?” You asked, rising onto elbows, but seeing only that bare wall coughing had come through all last night.
    “You know where it is.” Norman smirked, eyeballing and sniffing his stick before transferring it into his left ear. “If it keeps you quiet for the rest of the week, it’ll be a proper blessing.”
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,759
    edited November 2024

    Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.
    And me !!!!!

    Though the medics have done a good job so far for me

  • ‪Lewis Goodall‬ ‪@lewisgoodall.com‬
    ·
    54m
    Mishal Husain one of the very best broadcasters/interviewers the BBC has. Massive loss to the corporation.

    https://bsky.app/profile/lewisgoodall.com/post/3lbwrvbezhc23

    Oh God, the last bulwark against Today becoming a chummy, lower middle-brow smugfest, gone.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,858
    viewcode said:

    Unfortunately, it can go wrong a lot earlier than that... :(
    Tell me about it... :(
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824

    They appear to be no more expensive than fence panels. Something wrong there, surely.
    Making solar cells is not complex or - when done at scale - particularly expensive.

    The issue right now is that the other costs (installation and inverters) have not come down at the same rate as panels. That is changing.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755
    edited November 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    In Simone de Buevoir's autobiography she wrote something like

    At 35, I felt essentially the same as I did at 25

    At 45, the same as 35. And at 55, the same as 45.

    It was only at 65 that I felt noticably different to how I was a decade before.

    I'm glad that 85 is the new 65.

    Of course, she smoked like a chimney too.
    You look radically different between 5 and 15, and between 15 and 25. But from 25 to 55 you look about the same. But then you "go over" and you look radically different between 55 and 65. And it's all downhill from there. Between 25 and 55 you just need exercise, skincare, dentistry, a good diet, possibly dye. But from 55 onwards you need plastic surgery to look like the same person, and a lot of it as you continue to age.
  • The interminable strikes have stopped too, which must be helping to get things done.
    Of course if your mantra is pragmatic conciliation as opposed to a bone headed refusal to converse with anybody who doesn't 100% agree with you, it can deliver prompt and eye-catching results.

    Happier workers deliver increased productivity.

    Not rocket science to people experienced in running large bodies.

    Clearly something lacking for those whose life experience is Eton, Oxford, intern, straight in to House of Commons.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    edited November 2024

    Acceleration is the most effing pointless metric in cars; almost all cars nowadays have an acceleration that is perfectly acceptable for everyday use. Those who obsess about acceleration tend to be rather (ahem) silly.

    (I was saying this before the advent of electric cars, ever since my brother bought one of the first Lotus Elise's.... ;) )
    This is true. A couple of years ago we inherited my mother-in-laws VW Passat. All I knew about Passats before that was the Zoe Williams review that complained about how sluggishly they accelerated. So imagine my surprise when I found that the acceleration was actually much faster than on our previous car, a Skoda Octavia, which I had honestly always enjoyed legitimately flooring it when on a slip road and getting up to speed to join a motorway.

    But for someone who chooses cars on the basis of the vroom potential it will be relevant.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,505
    RobD said:

    Actually, I think the vast majority will leave.
    Yes - for comparison, the equivalent figure in the UK is generally around 5% or lower for most non-EEA visa types.

    (The main exception being High Value / Tier 1 visa holders, only 85-ish% of whom are recorded as leaving on time - though most will have had permission to overstay, being in the process of changing to a different visa type or getting Indefinite Leave to Remain)
This discussion has been closed.