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The new divides – politicalbetting.com
The new divides – politicalbetting.com
We're getting our first @YouGovAmerica snap polls back with reactions to the election, and these demographic splits really tell a story: https://t.co/ATPGMbq2p5 pic.twitter.com/4uVeWPc8PC
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Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point
“I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.
The response?
"That will be the way we go forwards"
Watch for yourself.”
https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/1854434448764485959?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
The abortion thing appears to be a mirage. Astonishing pro-Trump figures for young women. Leapords, faces?
https://x.com/blader/status/1854366739511030065
This isn't old, angry, white guys on porches.
If the Democrats put forward someone more intriguing and the Republicans find a genuine Heir to Trump next time, the answer to that question may determine the electoral result.
Whether we like to accept it or not , the view that women are too powerful now and men feel de-masculated is out there .
On differing voting patterns, America's economic growth has been captured entirely by a few small sectors yet inflation for basic goods is a burden everyone has had to bear. People on the lower and middle parts of the income scale, especially on unskilled jobs, have seen prices rose by 25% and wages rise by 10% since 2020. For these people the option was to take a gamble on Trump or stick with Harris who said she would have done nothing differently to Biden. They gambled.
From this side of the pond I can discern why 52% of voters thought this was in their self interest. Add to this the fact that the GOP was not the incumbent president.
Abortion apart (and states deal with that for the moment, so it's different) I cannot discern what self interest especially brought out the vote for Harris. Was it clear to Americans what sort of renewed self interest she was standing on?
A momentous day yesterday when the world looked on in astonishment as Trump won a spectacular victory with untold consequences
Maybe it was a case, similar to Brexit, where ordinary people decided they had had enough and voted accordingly
Starmer is trying to put on a brave face but if he turns and looks at his back benches they are seething and rocky times loom ahead
My worry is Reeves has staked everything on the NHS, borrowed and taxed to the limit, and is now facing untold problems with defence spending, tariffs, and an inward looking US with nothing left in the fuel tank. To be fair she looked extremely worried at PMQs
The other problem for Starmer is the profile of Farage, 'grinning like a Cheshire cat' and who poses are real threat to Labour and the conservatives
Interesting days
The Republicans are interested in recruiting new supporters, whereas the Conservatives focused on keeping existing supporters happy.
Will the Liberal-Left modify its religion of identity politics as a result in response to this?
Absolutely not.
And thanks for that on wages.
Liberal overreach (and shit like you can't be "too Woke"; yes, I'm thinking of you Sandy Toskvig) might eventually end up reversing some of the liberal gains from the post 1960s that we'd hitherto all been totally aligned upon.
Well done. No, really: WELL DONE.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/298490/defense-spending-united-kingdom-uk/
Who benefits from lots of frustrated young male migrants flooding our cities? It’s not young women is it? Look at the appalling rape statistics in Sweden and Denmark
I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
So productivity in agriculture just went down. Yay.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d
In the twitter graphic 18-29 Thrilled+Happy is 60%/37% male/female and 65+ 55%/42%, from 30-65 there's only 2-3% difference.
So it is young men and old men.
The website also shows a racial divide, white T+H, hispanic slightly T+H, black D+D.
It was fairly efficiently distributed in a 50:50 country, but even Kamala, a dire token candidate anointed by the party machine, still won more than 200 EC votes. Republicans shouldn't get carried away. I can see people getting pretty sick of endless incompetence, psychodramas and megalomania over the next couple of years, and Trump is now a lame duck who can't run again and therefore may find it difficult to control his party especially in Congress and the states as those under him jockey for succession.
- internal units doing what external management consultancies, nearly always fuck up.
- they hire in individuals contractors if required to bulk out staffing during development etc.
- their job is streamlining process and systems.
- this is an ongoing, "couple of percent each year" kind of thing.
- no attempts to re-engineer the entire company in one go. Piece by piece. And it's like the old story of painting the bridge. It's never completed.
- it needs massive buy in and support from top management.
This leads to real productivity improvements. For example, in one bank, they got SSO working for everything in a 2 year program. SSO = Single Sign On. This is when you login once - all the systems you use pick up on that login, so you only need one userid and password to access everything for your job.
Another was a bank that analysed their use of contractors - and turned all the "permanent contractors" into full time staff. Which meant pay rises for some positions, but ended up cheaper over a 5 year cycle.
This is grown up "cutting red tape".
I also wonder how if some of that is a rejection of Harris basically saying “vote for me, I am a woman” and almost taking those voters for granted.
Within 6 years I think all but a small handful of states will have legalised abortion up to 26 weeks or something similar. When 55-60% of voters want something, politicians will have to bend to their will.
The big problem is the very old farmer who won't live 7 years and relied, reasonably, on the present law WRT IHT. This needs attention in the legislation.
It is extremely likely that TwiX being owned by a right wing free speech advocate is what turned the election for Trump
So musk bought his chosen flavour of President, of the most powerful nation on earth, for $44 billion, meaning he will now make hundreds of billions as Trump showers him with contracts out of gratitude
That stupid Elon eh. Just a twit who inherited an emerald mine
It’s a false comparison. I have said continuously if you appeal to people like me they will vote for you. But you aren’t.
Until recently I worked in a public sector bureaucracy and I know there's loads of fat in public sector numbers if not staff costs.
Though the evidence suggests he doesn't shag anyone.
Ok.
Mate, he's not going to sperm donor you.
Theoretically, the armed forces, funded by the State, are part of the "bloated pampered public sector" so we end up with the tautology of wanting to cut public sector spending to increase public sector spending.
As a brave man once said, "let's get serious".
Local Government has lost a million jobs in the last decade - Councils of all particular stripes and none are on the cusp of bankruptcy. Some on here want to cut the civil service establishment (about half a million) by 50-90% (apart from those Conservativrds who want to throw civil servants in jail).
Let's get serious.
If you're griping about £10-£20 billion fine, gripe, but in the scheme of things, it's back of the sofa money. The Government spends just over £1,000 billion and still has a deficit of £130 billion (if you base that solely on what it spends versus what it gets in).
It's never just spending cuts or tax rises - it's a judicious mix of both. I thought Hunt's cutting of NI before the election absurd and unjustified but it was political and salting the earth for the new Government Ken Clarke, against whom Hunt is an irrelevance, didn't pander to the backbenches and cut taxes because he saw the bigger picture - handing the public finances and the economy on to the next Government in the best possible shape was his public duty.
Has Reeves got it right? Not really - she was far too timid in the Budget. If you want to get the deficit down and borrowing under control, then you have to be "tough". She should have raised Gambling Duty for example. The party's over - that same post-Covid splurge which killed off so many Governments round the world. Everyone who ends up paying more tax complains - human nature - but ultimately arguing that "someone else" (the wealthy, the public sector) has to do all the heavy lifting while you sail on unaffected isn't practical.
From a usability point of view it’s awful. Goes down every week, suggested Tweets have nothing to do with the post above, stupid name…
If your solution to a left wing echo chamber is to make it a right wing echo chamber, it’s not free speech you value but influencing people.
I can see three major reasons why the election went the way it did.
1. Media landscape change. TL:DR long-form podcasts rather than MSM interviews.
2. Social media change. TL:DR Musk buying Twitter and firing the moderators.
3. A gentleman by the name of Scott Presler, who led the Republican ground game in the swing states.
These are early days but I do share your hope for more youth and young policies
Also on a subject you are versed in, report today at just how bad 5G is across the country and in Mostyn Street in Llandudno ( the main street) Internet access within the shops is virtually zero
Edit: seems to have stopped doing it now so I'm going for glitch.
I think there’s an element of what you are saying. But I still think the unifier is the economy. Young people are not immune to this.
As I keep saying, if the Tories offer something on the economy and don’t overdo the “anti w” stuff which really does turn people off (Trump has found a balance here somehow, to his credit), young people will vote for them. That should be a big worry for SKS.
Marginally true if you add both together, however only just marginally true compared to old men, and breaking it down further tilts it much more towards old men being the happiest at the result.
Only 18% of young men are thrilled with his victory compared with 40% of old men. Which doesn't match the meme of young males being passionate Trump supporters, it seems like old men are the more passionate ones.
You heard it here, first.
Government is made up of hundreds and thousands of line items of spending. The reality is that there is waste in there - defunct programmes that stagger on, the crud that builds up around any organisation, whatever. Without access to that data it’s impossible so say “cut X or Y” in any meaningful way.
https://x.com/realkidpoker/status/1854282870594142327
You conspired to block Bernie.
You discarded and defamed @TulsiGabbard
You didn’t invite @elonmusk to a summit on electric vehicles?
You blocked @RobertKennedyJr and others from having any path to make their cause in a primary.
You embraced wokeism and identity politics, demonizing the evil, white cisgender male population, extra scorn for those who have attained financial wealth.
You further insult them by telling them that they didn’t vote for Kamala because they are racist and mysogonist.
You then anointed the most unpopular VP of all time and tried to gaslight us into thinking she is the next coming because Meg Stallion shook her ass on stage to get the vote out because…. “Joy”
What exactly did you expect would happen?
These are your sins. Will you learn from them? Or continue to repeat them?
America has spoken, and they are not buying what the @DNC is selling.
Wake up call.
In an entirely unrelated question, is the PM a farmer or a lawyer?
I hate smoking but I am not sure making it an underground industry is going to help.
Strict regulation on vapes I support but again the cat is so far out the bag we need to get people off it. Why do I feel a ban for that is coming at some point too.
BUT it would be interesting to see which polls were actually closer - these 'who are your neighbours voting for' or the traditional 'who are you voting for', before we get too excited. Given that the normal polls were overall not far off, it sounds like they were maybe closer, if the 'neighbour' poll was 'mind blowing to the favour Trump' as the article claims.
It could be a clue to which direction the polls are more likely to be out in, rather than being closer to the actual result? Or it could just mean Democrat voters are more pessimistic...
The price for this was the marginal loss of support by enough people in real personal difficulty, for whom the facile optimism may have felt actually insulting, with few gains among people who usually vote Republican. If Harris had set out a distinctive agenda, it might have worked better, but at the price of alienating some Biden supporters. It's not obvious that it would have worked.
What is apparent is that merely having lots of money and well-known names endorsing you doesn't deliver success, even if your opponent isn't especially popular. I think that a few distinctive economic policies benefiting people in difficulty would have been worth the risk - but I'm judging after the event.
I’m a woman is not a reason. She needed to offer something on the economy. She didn’t.
We can already say, from the anorak's point of view, that the next POTUS election (if Trump allows one of course) is going to be fascinating; as is the next four years.
Trump won because it is possible to see an upside to Trump from the voters' point of view. Not so with Harris.
The idea anyone should expect a woman to vote as she's told by her husband, or the same way, is sickening.
Nobody would expect a man to vote as his wife tells him to.
He’s achieved his purpose. He’s got Trump elected and he’s rolling back Wokeness
$44bn is a total bargain compared to all the power and money he will now accrue
I actually think in 2020 Biden seemed to move away from the more left wing approach and ran closer to the centre. It’s not that Harris actually ran to the left, she didn’t run as anything!
Biden brought seemingly some more Trump inclined voters with him. Harris said bye bye to them.
What else gets index linked to more than inflation, annually?
It should be either inflation, or wages, and stick with it whichever it is. Not a plus, not the highest, one or the other and that's it.
She thought she was Starmer, actually she was Sunak.
(Not actually)