A bit of movement away from Trump on Betfair – politicalbetting.com

System · November 2024

A bit of movement away from Trump on Betfair – politicalbetting.com

Further evidence of Trump struggles, in the current count, from Indiana.Again – early data, lots of changes in vote method composition between 2020 and now, Indiana won’t decide the election, and so on. https://t.co/By6zvBEXb9

Read the full story here

Casino_Royale · November 2024

Oooh first.

FrancisUrquhart · November 2024

I wish CNN would give John King a lot more airtime. I don't care what the biased talking heads say.

kle4 · November 2024

biggles said:

show previous quotes
biggles said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Sagand said:

rottenborough said:

not_on_fire said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:
Indiana is Pence territory. Good work on the numbers notwithstanding I am not sure if any of it really carries over.
Really good shout - could just be unwind of a Mike Pence effect. And no sign of Trump running behind 2020 in Kentucky
No - look at Kentuky.

Wolf county as example - Trump off by 4 on 2020.
These are probably the early vote, the day of vote could be much more Republican.
They are more than early vote. Some of these counties are practically done:

Hamilton is a massive population with an 8% Harris swing, so if representative of Suburbs then Trump is toast.
Suburban women are the key it seems.
So have I. We can do this together!
Also, I just got back from the pub. Noting the 9am meeting, should I open the whisky? A question to the forum…

If your meeting at 9am is coincidentally with me, absolutely you can.

Andy_JS · November 2024

Haven't worked out which TV station is the best one to watch yet.

Pulpstar · November 2024

AP has called IN for Trump.

Artist · November 2024

Trump up in Florida?

Casino_Royale · November 2024

Does John Kerry actually age?

He looks the same as he did 20 years ago.

kle4 · November 2024

rcs1000 said:
Trump leading his 2020 vote share across the board in Florida, by the looks of it

Boo. What is it with Florida that has had it going more and more Red over time?

TheScreamingEagles · November 2024

Pulpstar said:
AP has called IN for Trump.

CNN haven't, but I've updated the header.

rcs1000 · November 2024

Artist said:
Trump up in Florida?

I'm trying to do a Florida sheet, and yes it looks like Trump is 1-3 points up in Florida.

Pulpstar · November 2024

AP has a Trump lead early in GA.

GIN1138 · November 2024

kle4 said:

show previous quotes
rcs1000 said:
Trump leading his 2020 vote share across the board in Florida, by the looks of it
Boo. What is it with Florida that has had it going more and more Red over time?

Old people retiring to the sunshine state?

numbertwelve · November 2024

kle4 said:

show previous quotes
rcs1000 said:
Trump leading his 2020 vote share across the board in Florida, by the looks of it
Boo. What is it with Florida that has had it going more and more Red over time?

Old people

RobD · November 2024

Trump wining independents in GA by 11pts, 54 to 43

TheWhiteRabbit · November 2024

Exit poll figures on NBC screen looked like Trump + 2 to me in Florida

TheScreamingEagles · November 2024

GIN1138 said:

show previous quotes
kle4 said:

rcs1000 said:
Trump leading his 2020 vote share across the board in Florida, by the looks of it
Boo. What is it with Florida that has had it going more and more Red over time?
Old people retiring to the sunshine state?

Plus a significant Jewish vote.

FrancisUrquhart · November 2024

GIN1138 said:

show previous quotes
kle4 said:

rcs1000 said:
Trump leading his 2020 vote share across the board in Florida, by the looks of it
Boo. What is it with Florida that has had it going more and more Red over time?
Old people retiring to the sunshine state?

Quite a lot of right leaning pro business types have fled high tax states....e.g. I believe a bloke called Jeff Bezhooosss or something like that who has a few quid moved his whole family there.

rcs1000 · November 2024

Florida sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qTRQ6mTjdopsupXqzlSBQn64wirTRHE9O4tKucDUJmc/edit?usp=sharing

More mixed picture, but Trump definitely outperforming 2020

Andy_JS · November 2024

Where can we see the state exit polls?

GarethoftheVale2 · November 2024

TheScreamingEagles said:

show previous quotes
GIN1138 said:

kle4 said:

rcs1000 said:
Trump leading his 2020 vote share across the board in Florida, by the looks of it
Boo. What is it with Florida that has had it going more and more Red over time?
Old people retiring to the sunshine state?
Plus a significant Jewish vote.

Plus Reps doing better with Hispanic voters in Miami

kle4 · November 2024

Old white men ruining things is a worry for me since I am hopefully destined to become one.

GarethoftheVale2 · November 2024

CNN exit poll reports a big swing in Independent voters in Georgia to Trump vs. 2020

FrancisUrquhart · November 2024

Trump seems to be doing well in Georgia, better than 4 years ago, particularly with independents.

Andy_JS · November 2024

Found the Georgia exit poll.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/georgia/general/president/0

Pulpstar · November 2024

Non college white 81 Trump - 19 Harris !

not_on_fire · November 2024

Hard to see Harris winning GA on those independent numbers

MikeL · November 2024

GA independents gone Biden +9 to Trump +11.

Surely that must mean Trump has won GA.

TheScreamingEagles · November 2024

Georgia independents

Trump 54%

Harris 43%

Biden won this group by 9%

So I reckon that's Georgia a Trump gain.

Casino_Royale · November 2024

RobD said:
Trump wining independents in GA by 11pts, 54 to 43

Ah shucks

SeaShantyIrish2 · November 2024

FPT - See previous reference to Gomer Pyle (as played on US TV by the late, great Jim Nabors.

Speaking of Indiana, Nabors was an icon in the great Hoosier State. Why? Because he used to sing "Back Home in Indiana" at the start of every Indianapolis 500 race

Jim Nabors - Back Home Again In Indiana (1988 Indianapolis 500)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OX43VZi7UKQ

rcs1000 · November 2024

Pulpstar said:
AP has a Trump lead early in GA.

Twiggs only reporting county so far, and looks bang in line with 2020 result.

Mortimer · November 2024

TheScreamingEagles said:
Georgia independents

Trump 54%

Harris 43%

Biden won this group by 9%

So I reckon that's Georgia a Trump gain.

Oooof, that Sunbelt really is going Red isn't it.

londonpubman · November 2024

CNN calls Indiana for GOP

Gallowgate · November 2024

TheScreamingEagles said:
Georgia independents

Trump 54%

Harris 43%

Biden won this group by 9%

So I reckon that's Georgia a Trump gain.

That’s a poll though not actual votes?

kle4 · November 2024

MikeL said:
GA independents gone Biden +9 to Trump +11.

Surely that must mean trump has won GA.

That's a heck of a switch if it holds up. That looks so bad if it is representative I'd be worried it is a trend elsewhere (Georgia was a challenge to hold onto regardless).

Pulpstar · November 2024

rcs1000 said:

show previous quotes
Pulpstar said:
AP has a Trump lead early in GA.
Twiggs only reporting county so far, and looks bang in line with 2020 result.

Harris is ahead there now.

FrancisUrquhart · November 2024

BRREEEEAKKKKKKINNNGGG NEWSSSSSSS....Trump predicted to win Indiana.

Leon · November 2024

Good morning from a bright cool autumnal Seoul

Looks like Korea is possibly the BEST place to watch this unfurl, time-wise, after all

Got a good 8 hours kip and now results just coming in…

My ideal result is a long long 24 hours where Trump looks like he’s winning, to scare the living shitz out of every Wokester on here. And around the world. But ultimately for Trump to lose, coz tho I love entertainment I don’t actually want him to win

The polar bear must be dealt with, first

rcs1000 · November 2024

Georgia looks decent for Harris based on very early numbers.

Pulpstar · November 2024

00:12 IN for Trump.

HYUFD · November 2024

Virginia less than 1% in

Trump 53% Harris 45%

GarethoftheVale2 · November 2024

Mortimer said:

show previous quotes
TheScreamingEagles said:
Georgia independents

Trump 54%

Harris 43%

Biden won this group by 9%

So I reckon that's Georgia a Trump gain.
Oooof, that Sunbelt really is going Red isn't it.

Worth keeping an eye on Virginia then too

FrancisUrquhart · November 2024

Gallowgate said:

show previous quotes
TheScreamingEagles said:
Georgia independents

Trump 54%

Harris 43%

Biden won this group by 9%

So I reckon that's Georgia a Trump gain.
That’s a poll though not actual votes?

Yes, the Exit poll.

Andy_JS · November 2024

HYUFD said:
Virginia less than 1% in

Trump 53% Harris 45%

The most Democratic part of Virginia almost always come in at the end.

kle4 · November 2024

When I see the words 'Trump doing better than in 2020' I'm just baffled. I know that's due to echo chamber effect, but when I see his weird rambling speeches it's incredible that people who did not vote for him before go 'Yes, I want some more of that!'

HYUFD · November 2024

Georgia 3% in

Harris 51%
Trump 48%

numbertwelve · November 2024

HYUFD said:
Virginia less than 1% in

Trump 53% Harris 45%

For context, Virginia always reports GOP leaning areas first

Pulpstar · November 2024

Don't look now, @Viewcode but Trump is ahead in Virginia (He always was going to be at this stage and will be for a while yet)

FrancisUrquhart · November 2024

kle4 said:
When I see the words 'Trump doing better than in 2020' I'm just baffled. I know that's due to echo chamber effect, but when I see his weird rambling speeches it's incredible that people who did not vote for him before go 'Yes, I want some more of that!'

Its the economy. If you don't have a lot of assets, the inflation is an absolute killer especially rent and food.

RobD · November 2024

kle4 said:
When I see the words 'Trump doing better than in 2020' I'm just baffled. I know that's due to echo chamber effect, but when I see his weird rambling speeches it's incredible that people who did not vote for him before go 'Yes, I want some more of that!'

Mad, isn’t it?

Ratters · November 2024

FrancisUrquhart said:

show previous quotes
Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Georgia independents

Trump 54%

Harris 43%

Biden won this group by 9%

So I reckon that's Georgia a Trump gain.
That’s a poll though not actual votes?
Yes, the Exit poll.

I'm not sure US exit polls have the same reputation as UK ones have...

not_on_fire · November 2024

Harris leading Douglas County GA 66-34 with 75% counted. 2020 result was Biden 62, Trump 37

Pulpstar · November 2024

Andy_JS said:

show previous quotes
HYUFD said:
Virginia less than 1% in

Trump 53% Harris 45%
The most Democratic part of Virginia almost always come in at the end.

It's going to get worse before it gets better there for Harris.

HYUFD · November 2024

Florida 41% in

Trump 52%
Harris 47%

Leon · November 2024

kle4 said:
When I see the words 'Trump doing better than in 2020' I'm just baffled. I know that's due to echo chamber effect, but when I see his weird rambling speeches it's incredible that people who did not vote for him before go 'Yes, I want some more of that!'

Because the Democrats are seen as WORSE

By this point, the inability to grasp this can only be ascribed to stupidity. But I shall be kind, and ascribe it to you being very very tired (and I do sympathise)

not_on_fire · November 2024

numbertwelve said:

show previous quotes
HYUFD said:
Virginia less than 1% in

Trump 53% Harris 45%
For context, Virginia always reports GOP leaning areas first

Yes, I remember in 2016 a lot of people were getting excited that it was going to go Red but came through for Clinton in the end

rcs1000 · November 2024

Whatever the exit poll says, the early Georgia returns look good for Harris. She's tracking 3 percent ahead of Biden in 2020, with the caveat that she needs to be, because early voting will be more favorable to her.

SeaShantyIrish2 · November 2024

Perhaps stating the obvious (at least to yours truly) but tad early to become toooooo categoric, at least until NYT or networks call the race that is, based on WAY better analysis than done by me - or thee.

Cookie · November 2024

kle4 said:
When I see the words 'Trump doing better than in 2020' I'm just baffled. I know that's due to echo chamber effect, but when I see his weird rambling speeches it's incredible that people who did not vote for him before go 'Yes, I want some more of that!'

Simple: Voters fear Harris 2024 more than they feared Biden 2020.

Andy_JS · November 2024

Have they really counted 42% of the Florida vote already?

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?election-data-id=2024-PG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false

GarethoftheVale2 · November 2024

kle4 said:
When I see the words 'Trump doing better than in 2020' I'm just baffled. I know that's due to echo chamber effect, but when I see his weird rambling speeches it's incredible that people who did not vote for him before go 'Yes, I want some more of that!'

It's the cost of living. CNN had a small business owner on who said he didn't love Trump but he was doing better than Trump was President than now.

Pulpstar · November 2024

not_on_fire said:
Harris leading Douglas County GA 66-34 with 75% counted. 2020 result was Biden 62, Trump 37

Isn't the mail counted first in GA though, some redshift expected (On a county by county basis) there overnight ?

not_on_fire · November 2024

Andy_JS said:
Have they really counted 42% of the Florida vote already?

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?election-data-id=2024-PG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false

Electronic voting machines can count very quickly

Leon · November 2024

Also, kudos to the Legendary Sultan of the PB Spreadsheet, @Andy_JS

In the PB New Year’s Honours, he is surely due the Order of OGH

kle4 · November 2024

Leon said:

show previous quotes
kle4 said:
When I see the words 'Trump doing better than in 2020' I'm just baffled. I know that's due to echo chamber effect, but when I see his weird rambling speeches it's incredible that people who did not vote for him before go 'Yes, I want some more of that!'
Because the Democrats are seen as WORSE

By this point, the inability to grasp this can only be ascribed to stupidity. But I shall be kind, and ascribe it to you being very very tired (and I do sympathise)

I appreciate your forebearance.

Benpointer · November 2024

Georgia - Exit poll good for Trump, early results good for Harris. What a muddle!

Gallowgate · November 2024

Pulpstar said:

show previous quotes
not_on_fire said:
Harris leading Douglas County GA 66-34 with 75% counted. 2020 result was Biden 62, Trump 37
Isn't the mail counted first in GA though, some redshift expected (On a county by county basis) there overnight ?

Republicans have been voting by mail this time so likely to be less pronounced

numbertwelve · November 2024

HYUFD said:
Florida 41% in

Trump 52%
Harris 47%

Now that interests me. Is that just a symptom of more GOP areas reporting later? That feels closer than expected…

HYUFD · November 2024

Vermont 1% in

Harris 75% Trump 21%

Pulpstar · November 2024

Andy_JS said:
Have they really counted 42% of the Florida vote already?

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?election-data-id=2024-PG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false

Yes. Florida has an excellent election system now after their humiliation in 2000.

kle4 · November 2024

not_on_fire said:

show previous quotes
Andy_JS said:
Have they really counted 42% of the Florida vote already?

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?election-data-id=2024-PG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Electronic voting machines can count very quickly

When they aren't being run by Venezuela Democrat operatives.

FrancisUrquhart · November 2024

NBC and Fox News now have live YouTube streams if you fancy a change from CNN. As do David Pakman (left) and Daily Wire (right).

rcs1000 · November 2024

Pulpstar said:

show previous quotes
not_on_fire said:
Harris leading Douglas County GA 66-34 with 75% counted. 2020 result was Biden 62, Trump 37
Isn't the mail counted first in GA though, some redshift expected (On a county by county basis) there overnight ?

That's right. Harris needs to be 3 points ahead when early votes are all counted.

And that's pretty much where she is.

Georgia is on a knife edge.

Andy_JS · November 2024

not_on_fire said:

show previous quotes
Andy_JS said:
Have they really counted 42% of the Florida vote already?

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?election-data-id=2024-PG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Electronic voting machines can count very quickly

I know they're supposed to, but often they seem to take a long time.

Drutt · November 2024

RCS moving the thin BF Georgia market...

kle4 · November 2024

Pulpstar said:

show previous quotes
Andy_JS said:
Have they really counted 42% of the Florida vote already?

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?election-data-id=2024-PG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Yes. Florida has an excellent election system now after their humiliation in 2000.

You mean politicians learned from a cock up and implemented effective changes? Remarkable occurence!

Gallowgate · November 2024

HYUFD said:
Vermont 1% in

Harris 75% Trump 21%

No offence but this is less than useful

Andy_JS · November 2024

rcs1000 said:
Whatever the exit poll says, the early Georgia returns look good for Harris. She's tracking 3 percent ahead of Biden in 2020, with the caveat that she needs to be, because early voting will be more favorable to her.

I don't know what the margin of error is with these exit polls.

kle4 · November 2024

numbertwelve said:

show previous quotes
HYUFD said:
Florida 41% in

Trump 52%
Harris 47%
Now that interests me. Is that just a symptom of more GOP areas reporting later? That feels closer than expected…

I can never remember which states the early vote is likely to be GOP leaning or Dem leaning, or if it might switch around from election to election if they switch up the order of counting. Makes it very hard to follow.

Pulpstar · November 2024

HYUFD said:
Vermont 1% in

Harris 75% Trump 21%

Vermont is one of the few places where rural areas are Democrat.

Benpointer · November 2024

numbertwelve said:

show previous quotes
HYUFD said:
Florida 41% in

Trump 52%
Harris 47%
Now that interests me. Is that just a symptom of more GOP areas reporting later? That feels closer than expected…

It's bang in line with @Andy_JS's projection spreadie, just saying.

Nigelb · November 2024

Ratters said:

show previous quotes
FrancisUrquhart said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Georgia independents

Trump 54%

Harris 43%

Biden won this group by 9%

So I reckon that's Georgia a Trump gain.
That’s a poll though not actual votes?
Yes, the Exit poll.
I'm not sure US exit polls have the same reputation as UK ones have...

They do not.
And ours can be misleading enough.

Anabobazina · November 2024

I’ve probably missed this but where are people seeing live results?

Pulpstar · November 2024

rcs1000 said:

show previous quotes
Pulpstar said:

not_on_fire said:
Harris leading Douglas County GA 66-34 with 75% counted. 2020 result was Biden 62, Trump 37
Isn't the mail counted first in GA though, some redshift expected (On a county by county basis) there overnight ?
That's right. Harris needs to be 3 points ahead when early votes are all counted.

And that's pretty much where she is.

Georgia is on a knife edge.

And on queue, Trump goes ahead.

MikeL · November 2024

FL:

Zero counted in Miami Dade or Palm Beach.

Broward 67%

MarqueeMark · November 2024

Rockdale County Georgia - 10% better for Harris than 2020.

williamglenn · November 2024

Benpointer said:
Georgia - Exit poll good for Trump, early results good for Harris. What a muddle!

I'd trust the exit poll more than the early results. It's quite common to see the early results point one way and for it to end up going decisively in the other direction when the last 30-40% are counted.

Andy_JS · November 2024

Is it possible to bet on Harris winning without PA? Might be worth a small flutter.

Casino_Royale · November 2024

Pulpstar said:

show previous quotes
HYUFD said:
Vermont 1% in

Harris 75% Trump 21%
Vermont is one of the few places where rural areas are Democrat.

Always wondered why New England is so Liberal.

Except New Hampshire.

Pulpstar · November 2024

Anabobazina said:
I’ve probably missed this but where are people seeing live results?

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/georgia/?r=0

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-indiana-president.html

GarethoftheVale2 · November 2024

Has any US county completed yet?

kle4 · November 2024

I can't wait for that moment when a really important state just seems to get stuck on reporting 67.2% or whatever, whilst everyone goes nuts around them.

Andy_JS · November 2024

Extraordinary if Russia is behind bomb threats on polling stations in Georgia.

rcs1000 · November 2024

MikeL said:
FL:

Zero counted in Miami Dade or Palm Beach.

Broward 67%

Miami-Dade is coming in for Trump. He's won Florida by 7-8. Which is bang in the middle of the "very close run election" range.

williamglenn · November 2024

Andy_JS said:
Extraordinary if Russia is behind bomb threats on polling stations in Georgia.

Does Putin know it's not that Georgia?

FrancisUrquhart · November 2024

BREAKKKKKKING NEWS....Exit poll says North Carolina votes proper pissed with way things are going, economy most important issue.

Pulpstar · November 2024

MikeL said:
FL:

Zero counted in Miami Dade or Palm Beach.

Broward 67%

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/florida/?r=0

Trump 90k ahead in Miami. It'll be a MAHOOSIVE swing from Clinton's result there.

Leon · November 2024

CNN close to calling the whole dang thing for Trump, because Georgia independents

Casino_Royale · November 2024

Andy_JS said:
Is it possible to bet on Harris winning without PA? Might be worth a small flutter.

I think Sky has a bet for Harris to win NC and Trump to take PA at 4/1

Might be a good proxy

RobD · November 2024

There’s an alternative to the NY Times needle here, below the map:

https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/

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