OK, to summarise: urban are not turning out in the swing states. But of those that are turning out, they are predominately women. If those women prioritise immigration and inflation, they will win it for Trump. If those women prioritise abortion, they will win it for Kamela.
Any ideas, gang?
Except Nevada. In Nevada, it's the urban and suburban areas that are turning out, while rural is not.
Which is the exact opposite of what we'd expect given data on voting by party registration.
Sorry but that's the opposite of what Ralston has.
NV turnout per Ralston:
Clark 51.8% Washoe 53.4% Rurals 59.8%
Incidentally Ralston did an update at Mon 7.25pm PT - see link:
Interestingly 2020 was 5-0 to Biden, and 2016 was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1
A swing to Trump compared to last time, but of the six voters, four are GOP registered, so Harris can take consultation from Trump not even landing all the republicans.
Yes its a weird one, four of the six voters were registered as Republicans for the primary this year, with two indys. Nikki Haley won 6-0.
Interestingly 2020 was 5-0 to Biden, and 2016 was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1
2012 was a 5-5 tie and Obama ended up with a pretty decent win. I think it all goes to show that whilst this is a quaint tradition its prognosticating powers are slim to non-existent.
I was mildly alarmed today to learn that a structural engineer friend uses chatgpt to do his structural engineering calculations. Apparently the paid for version is better than the free version. But still.
Sorry, what??
I hope it isn't for anything more than a shed. And even then...
You’d be amazed how many otherwise intelligent professional people have come to treat LLM output as gospel. It really is rather worrying.
Treating is as gospel surely is good news*.
* I hope that least some people get this. My money is on @ydoethur and @StillWaters.
OK, to summarise: urban are not turning out in the swing states. But of those that are turning out, they are predominately women. If those women prioritise immigration and inflation, they will win it for Trump. If those women prioritise abortion, they will win it for Kamela.
Any ideas, gang?
Except Nevada. In Nevada, it's the urban and suburban areas that are turning out, while rural is not.
Which is the exact opposite of what we'd expect given data on voting by party registration.
Sorry but that's the opposite of what Ralston has.
NV turnout per Ralston:
Clark 51.8% Washoe 53.4% Rurals 59.8%
Incidentally Ralston did an update at Mon 7.25pm PT - see link:
The numbers may not be accurate, given they don't really match with Georgia either. But @viewcode is getting very excited about them.
WRT Georgia, the early vote gender split favours Harris. But the split by race seems to favour Trump, with white voters over 60% of the total. Do black voters there generally turn out on the day?
Interestingly 2020 was 5-0 to Biden, and 2016 was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1
2012 was a 5-5 tie and Obama ended up with a pretty decent win. I think it all goes to show that whilst this is a quaint tradition its prognosticating powers are slim to non-existent.
Oh of course, it’s just a funny and traditional anomaly to keep the media talking while nothing else is happening in the middle of the night.
OK, to summarise: urban are not turning out in the swing states. But of those that are turning out, they are predominately women. If those women prioritise immigration and inflation, they will win it for Trump. If those women prioritise abortion, they will win it for Kamela.
Any ideas, gang?
Except Nevada. In Nevada, it's the urban and suburban areas that are turning out, while rural is not.
Which is the exact opposite of what we'd expect given data on voting by party registration.
Sorry but that's the opposite of what Ralston has.
NV turnout per Ralston:
Clark 51.8% Washoe 53.4% Rurals 59.8%
Incidentally Ralston did an update at Mon 7.25pm PT - see link:
The numbers may not be accurate, given they don't really match with Georgia either. But @viewcode is getting very excited about them.
WRT Georgia, the early vote gender split favours Harris. But the split by race seems to favour Trump, with white voters over 60% of the total. Do black voters there generally turn out on the day?
The white vote in Georgia was 62% in 2022 and 60% in 2020, so I think that's largely in line. However, there's definitely some black underperformance relative to those years.
Interestingly 2020 was 5-0 to Biden, and 2016 was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1
A swing to Trump compared to last time, but of the six voters, four are GOP registered, so Harris can take consultation from Trump not even landing all the republicans.
Yes its a weird one, four of the six voters were registered as Republicans for the primary this year, with two indys. Nikki Haley won 6-0.
Republican Twitter has woken up to the gender bias. There’s lots of young lady conservatives telling the young men to make sure they vote today. At the last election there were 10m more women than men who voted.
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
My worry is that Trump has now infected his party such that even if he loses, the next Republican President (and there will be one) will still embolden Putin or his successor and trigger a global trade war.
We need him to not just lose, but lose so badly that the Democrats take the House and Senate on the coattails. And that seems inconceivable.
I know people might think I'm a broken record on this, but how do you see Putin taking Crimea and invading Donbas under Obama and then launching a full-scale invasion under Biden and conclude that Trump is the problem?
We've been over this before, but you don't seem to engage, preferring to just repeat your own rather simplistic opinion.
In my view, the following happened: Russia's military was in a parlous state in the 1990s. In the 2000s, Putin started a process of rebuilding both material and training.
This material and training was shown as being poor in the 2008 Georgia invasion (under, you should note, Republican George W Bush). They 'won', but it was not as easy as Putin's military leaders had claimed it would be. ISTR some of those leaders were soon not-leaders.
Then, after six more years, he launched the 2014 Ukraine invasion. He grabbed Crimea fairly easily, but the Ukrainian response and the 'separatist' (note: Russian) forces performed very poorly. More rebuilding was necessary.
In the meantime, he gave his forces the sort of 'training' he felt it needed in places like Syria. Real combat.
Then Covid happened. Putin retreats into a hovel deep within the Kremlin. The war is delayed.
In early 2021, Putin orders forces to start massing at the Ukrainian border. He believes his forces are in a much better state, both materially and in form of training, than seven years earlier. A year later he invades.
Note that none of this timing depends on who is president. The Russian forces were simply not in a position to launch the invasion between 2016 and 2020.
Republican Twitter has woken up to the gender bias. There’s lots of young lady conservatives telling the young men to make sure they vote today. At the last election there were 10m more women than men who voted.
Republican Twitter has woken up to the gender bias. There’s lots of young lady conservatives telling the young men to make sure they vote today. At the last election there were 10m more women than men who voted.
As I have spelt out in detail below for Georgia, women are killing this for Trump.
It's going to need a tsunami of Trump men to vote for him today. If those lines aren't dominated by men - it's over.
Republican Twitter has woken up to the gender bias. There’s lots of young lady conservatives telling the young men to make sure they vote today. At the last election there were 10m more women than men who voted.
As I have spelt out in detail below for Georgia, women are killing this for Trump.
It's going to need a tsunami of Trump men to vote for him today. If those lines aren't dominated by men - it's over.
Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:
"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
My worry is that Trump has now infected his party such that even if he loses, the next Republican President (and there will be one) will still embolden Putin or his successor and trigger a global trade war.
We need him to not just lose, but lose so badly that the Democrats take the House and Senate on the coattails. And that seems inconceivable.
I know people might think I'm a broken record on this, but how do you see Putin taking Crimea and invading Donbas under Obama and then launching a full-scale invasion under Biden and conclude that Trump is the problem?
We've been over this before, but you don't seem to engage, preferring to just repeat your own rather simplistic opinion.
In my view, the following happened: Russia's military was in a parlous state in the 1990s. In the 2000s, Putin started a process of rebuilding both material and training.
This material and training was shown as being poor in the 2008 Georgia invasion (under, you should note, Republican George W Bush). They 'won', but it was not as easy as Putin's military leaders had claimed it would be. ISTR some of those leaders were soon not-leaders.
Then, after six more years, he launched the 2014 Ukraine invasion. He grabbed Crimea fairly easily, but the Ukrainian response and the 'separatist' (note: Russian) forces performed very poorly. More rebuilding was necessary.
In the meantime, he gave his forces the sort of 'training' he felt it needed in places like Syria. Real combat.
Then Covid happened. Putin retreats into a hovel deep within the Kremlin. The war is delayed.
In early 2021, Putin orders forces to start massing at the Ukrainian border. He believes his forces are in a much better state, both materially and in form of training, than seven years earlier. A year later he invades.
Note that none of this timing depends on who is president. The Russian forces were simply not in a position to launch the invasion between 2016 and 2020.
You appear to be arguing against the thesis that Putin was "emboldened" by Trump.
OK, to summarise: urban are not turning out in the swing states. But of those that are turning out, they are predominately women. If those women prioritise immigration and inflation, they will win it for Trump. If those women prioritise abortion, they will win it for Kamela.
Any ideas, gang?
Except Nevada. In Nevada, it's the urban and suburban areas that are turning out, while rural is not.
Which is the exact opposite of what we'd expect given data on voting by party registration.
Sorry but that's the opposite of what Ralston has.
NV turnout per Ralston:
Clark 51.8% Washoe 53.4% Rurals 59.8%
Incidentally Ralston did an update at Mon 7.25pm PT - see link:
The numbers may not be accurate, given they don't really match with Georgia either. But @viewcode is getting very excited about them.
WRT Georgia, the early vote gender split favours Harris. But the split by race seems to favour Trump, with white voters over 60% of the total. Do black voters there generally turn out on the day?
Republican Twitter has woken up to the gender bias. There’s lots of young lady conservatives telling the young men to make sure they vote today. At the last election there were 10m more women than men who voted.
Yes, it was 52:48 last time.
Just to be clear, 52:48 does not equate to 10m more female voters in 2020.
Total vote in 2020 was 158m
So if it was 52:48 it would mean approx 6m more female voters.
F1: decided to very slightly modify my title situation with a hedge of 1.21 (laying on Betfair) on McLaren. They have a solid shot and are seen as favourites but comparing the points each team amassed in the last three races Ferrari do have a very credible shot at this. I'm still green either way and wouldn't want to change that, but Ferrari are 36 points behind, meaning they need 12 per race (and 1 in the sprint, if you like).
In the previous three race weekends they won 116 points to McLaren's 77. Big if, but if repeated then Ferrari would take the title.
Edited extra bit: worth noting there were two sprints in the last three races but just one in the final three.
Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:
"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
My worry is that Trump has now infected his party such that even if he loses, the next Republican President (and there will be one) will still embolden Putin or his successor and trigger a global trade war.
We need him to not just lose, but lose so badly that the Democrats take the House and Senate on the coattails. And that seems inconceivable.
I know people might think I'm a broken record on this, but how do you see Putin taking Crimea and invading Donbas under Obama and then launching a full-scale invasion under Biden and conclude that Trump is the problem?
We've been over this before, but you don't seem to engage, preferring to just repeat your own rather simplistic opinion.
In my view, the following happened: Russia's military was in a parlous state in the 1990s. In the 2000s, Putin started a process of rebuilding both material and training.
This material and training was shown as being poor in the 2008 Georgia invasion (under, you should note, Republican George W Bush). They 'won', but it was not as easy as Putin's military leaders had claimed it would be. ISTR some of those leaders were soon not-leaders.
Then, after six more years, he launched the 2014 Ukraine invasion. He grabbed Crimea fairly easily, but the Ukrainian response and the 'separatist' (note: Russian) forces performed very poorly. More rebuilding was necessary.
In the meantime, he gave his forces the sort of 'training' he felt it needed in places like Syria. Real combat.
Then Covid happened. Putin retreats into a hovel deep within the Kremlin. The war is delayed.
In early 2021, Putin orders forces to start massing at the Ukrainian border. He believes his forces are in a much better state, both materially and in form of training, than seven years earlier. A year later he invades.
Note that none of this timing depends on who is president. The Russian forces were simply not in a position to launch the invasion between 2016 and 2020.
You appear to be arguing against the thesis that Putin was "emboldened" by Trump.
I don't think who was president in the US had much effect on Putin's thinking. The state and capabilities of his own military, along with internal politics, would have been the significant drivers for the 2022 invasion.
It appears that a lot of people think like this: 'Ann Selzer is a seasoned professional with a stellar record of predicting Iowa elections, but her result this time does not match with my amateur opinion gained from a perusal of the internet. The obvious conclusion is to discard her data and keep my opinion.'
I discarded my amateur opinion and kept her data. It may be wrong, but there are good solid reasons behind her result, which certainly seem to match early voting data elsewhere.
A big EC win can happen even when margins in individual states are small. We shall see.
Two postscripts: I would be delighted to be wrong about GA. And the numbers being posted on here are hopeful. Comparing early votes to 2020: umm, COVID election rules?
F1: decided to very slightly modify my title situation with a hedge of 1.21 (laying on Betfair) on McLaren. They have a solid shot and are seen as favourites but comparing the points each team amassed in the last three races Ferrari do have a very credible shot at this. I'm still green either way and wouldn't want to change that, but Ferrari are 36 points behind, meaning they need 12 per race (and 1 in the sprint, if you like).
In the previous three race weekends they won 116 points to McLaren's 77. Big if, but if repeated then Ferrari would take the title.
Last year Ferrari did well at Vegas and I expect they will do the same this year.
Qatar is interesting as I think the combination of Vegas than traveling half round the world followed by Qatar is going to be a killer for jet lag - within 5 days you need to shift your body clock 12 hours
Mr. eek, oh, aye. Having a three week break then three races on the bounce, including a shift from Nevada to Arabia, is special.
If Ferrari do very well at Vegas then my plan is to hedge the other way. But I think the Constructors' has been quite swingy. I backed/tipped Ferrari initially at 9.5, then they slumped to about 3.2 or so, now back out to over 5.
This may change, but Piastri's been off-form for the last few races. If that doesn't improve, this could be very close.
Morning. My calculation. Harris 302. Trump 236. My formula is being kept secret before someone asked how I got there! We will see how I did and I am sure I will be held to account if I am incorrect!
Republican Twitter has woken up to the gender bias. There’s lots of young lady conservatives telling the young men to make sure they vote today. At the last election there were 10m more women than men who voted.
Yes, it was 52:48 last time.
And in early voting in Georgia this time it is 56.0:43.8 - with 56% of the electorate having voted.
If 100% of Georgians were to vote, the split would have to be 60:40 to men to balance up on gender. But turnout last time was 66%. On that metric for turnout, if the remaining 10% still to vote were all men, it still can't level up.
We are building the biggest and broadest coalition in American Political History. This includes record-breaking numbers of Arab and Muslim Voters in Michigan who want PEACE. They know Kamala and her warmonger Cabinet will invade the Middle East, get millions of Muslims killed, and start World War III. VOTE TRUMP, AND BRING BACK PEACE!
Morning. My calculation. Harris 302. Trump 236. My formula is being kept secret before someone asked how I got there! We will see how I did and I am sure I will be held to account if I am incorrect!
I'll be the first to congratulate you if it is 302/236.
F1: decided to very slightly modify my title situation with a hedge of 1.21 (laying on Betfair) on McLaren. They have a solid shot and are seen as favourites but comparing the points each team amassed in the last three races Ferrari do have a very credible shot at this. I'm still green either way and wouldn't want to change that, but Ferrari are 36 points behind, meaning they need 12 per race (and 1 in the sprint, if you like).
In the previous three race weekends they won 116 points to McLaren's 77. Big if, but if repeated then Ferrari would take the title.
Last year Ferrari did well at Vegas and I expect they will do the same this year.
Qatar is interesting as I think the combination of Vegas than traveling half round the world followed by Qatar is going to be a killer for jet lag - within 5 days you need to shift your body clock 12 hours
Sandpit to Vegas is a 24 hour trip with 12 hours’ difference. Yes, it took me pretty much the whole week to recover, it’s horrible!
In their favour is that Vegas is a night race, so if they keep a sensible wake and sleep times it’s only about four hours. Vegas race is at my 10am (their 10pm Saturday).
Edit: Nope, Qatar is a night race too, so it’s about 9 hours they need to move.
Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:
"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."
Mr. eek, oh, aye. Having a three week break then three races on the bounce, including a shift from Nevada to Arabia, is special.
If Ferrari do very well at Vegas then my plan is to hedge the other way. But I think the Constructors' has been quite swingy. I backed/tipped Ferrari initially at 9.5, then they slumped to about 3.2 or so, now back out to over 5.
This may change, but Piastri's been off-form for the last few races. If that doesn't improve, this could be very close.
I was actually going to say that - take McLaren profits now because their odds will length at Vegas because Ferrari should do well there. A Ferrari 1,2 with McLaren 3rd and 6/7th would not surprise me at all
I'm not seeing anyway to get urban/rural splits out of that website. Or indeed, county level data to enable me to compare it to the releases from the Georgia SoS.
I also think a total of 3.8 million early votes across Pittsburg, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Reno, Phoenix, Milwaukee, Detroit, Madison, Charlotte, Raleigh and more seems laughably low, given that close to 1.5 million will come from Atlanta, and there are 5 million people in the Phoenix metropolitan area alone.
I think someone has linked to Target Smart and just made up some numbers.
Looking at Georgia (below), gives somewhat more plausible numbers:
Albeit it is worth remembering that Georgia is at 55% turnout already, not the 47% listed. So I'm not sure where TargetSmart gets its numbers from.
It's also pretty misleading to just compare Urban with Rural and miss out Suburban.
Nevertheless, assuming the numbers are directionally right, it is definitely not good news for the Democrats that Urban and Suburban are down, while Rural is up.
F1: decided to very slightly modify my title situation with a hedge of 1.21 (laying on Betfair) on McLaren. They have a solid shot and are seen as favourites but comparing the points each team amassed in the last three races Ferrari do have a very credible shot at this. I'm still green either way and wouldn't want to change that, but Ferrari are 36 points behind, meaning they need 12 per race (and 1 in the sprint, if you like).
In the previous three race weekends they won 116 points to McLaren's 77. Big if, but if repeated then Ferrari would take the title.
Last year Ferrari did well at Vegas and I expect they will do the same this year.
Qatar is interesting as I think the combination of Vegas than traveling half round the world followed by Qatar is going to be a killer for jet lag - within 5 days you need to shift your body clock 12 hours
Sandpit to Vegas is a 24 hour trip with 12 hours’ difference. Yes, it took me pretty much the whole week to recover, it’s horrible!
In their favour is that Vegas is a night race, so if they keep a sensible wake and sleep times it’s only about four hours. Vegas race is at my 10am (their 10pm Saturday).
Edit: Nope, Qatar is a night race too, so it’s about 9 hours they need to move.
I did go and check race times to see how awful that change in location was going to be - and it’s going to be absolutely awful.
It’s also 10 hours, Vegas is 6am uk time, Qatar 4pm
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
It’s indexed linked now though so future increases won’t need to be announced in the same way.
What annoys me is that it doesn’t fix anything but it matches the Labour approach of vague fix that solves the immediate crisis but doesn’t solve any part of the actual issue.
I was mildly alarmed today to learn that a structural engineer friend uses chatgpt to do his structural engineering calculations. Apparently the paid for version is better than the free version. But still.
Sorry, what??
I hope it isn't for anything more than a shed. And even then...
You’d be amazed how many otherwise intelligent professional people have come to treat LLM output as gospel. It really is rather worrying.
I did worry that would happen. Part of the problem is people calling it "AI" when it's nothing of the sort.
The next Grenfell-style disaster could well end up being due to someone using a LLM to do something out isn't capable of doing, and not checking the results.
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
Think of it as the policy equivalent of an out of office email. They will hope they it's just enough to avoid a collapse while they work out what to do long-term.
Why they didn't come to office with a long-term plan ready to go, I don't know.
@Steven_Swinford Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday
Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
Think of it as the policy equivalent of an out of office email. They will hope they it's just enough to avoid a collapse while they work out what to do long-term.
Why they didn't come to office with a long-term plan ready to go, I don't know.
Starmer appears to have done almost none of the work expected when in Opposition.
We may have thought that his empty campaign would see him over the line as being better than the alternative, but he actually had nothing to bring forward. He just wants to be in power for the sake of being in power, no vision about how he wishes to move the country forward.
I was mildly alarmed today to learn that a structural engineer friend uses chatgpt to do his structural engineering calculations. Apparently the paid for version is better than the free version. But still.
Sorry, what??
I hope it isn't for anything more than a shed. And even then...
You’d be amazed how many otherwise intelligent professional people have come to treat LLM output as gospel. It really is rather worrying.
I did worry that would happen. Part of the problem is people calling it "AI" when it's nothing of the sort.
The next Grenfell-style disaster could well end up being due to someone using a LLM to do something out isn't capable of doing, and not checking the results.
It’s now extremely rare for ChatGPT to get “basic maths wrong”. In fact it is increasingly rare for these things to get anything wrong - tho of course it still happens
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
Think of it as the policy equivalent of an out of office email. They will hope they it's just enough to avoid a collapse while they work out what to do long-term.
Why they didn't come to office with a long-term plan ready to go, I don't know.
Starmer appears to have done almost none of the work expected when in Opposition.
We may have thought that his empty campaign would see him over the line as being better than the alternative, but he actually had nothing to bring forward. He just wants to be in power for the sake of being in power, no vision about how he wishes to move the country forward.
Alternatively he’s taking a pragmatic conservative approach. Lots of small things that add up, but do not create disruption. Sometimes Starmer comes across as the first conservative PM we’ve had in years,
@Steven_Swinford Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday
Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines
@Steven_Swinford Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday
Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines
I was mildly alarmed today to learn that a structural engineer friend uses chatgpt to do his structural engineering calculations. Apparently the paid for version is better than the free version. But still.
Sorry, what??
I hope it isn't for anything more than a shed. And even then...
You’d be amazed how many otherwise intelligent professional people have come to treat LLM output as gospel. It really is rather worrying.
I did worry that would happen. Part of the problem is people calling it "AI" when it's nothing of the sort.
The next Grenfell-style disaster could well end up being due to someone using a LLM to do something out isn't capable of doing, and not checking the results.
The real problem is people treating results that are generated by electronic systems as Gospel, even when they are garbage (eg the Post Office).
If a result seems intuitively wrong, investigate it.
@Steven_Swinford Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday
Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines
Gee, I wonder who could have leaked that?
So petty. Such a Mickey Mouse act.
Disney’s lawyers want a word
Thank goodness you caught the apostrophe error. My back's sore enough today without wincing.
I was mildly alarmed today to learn that a structural engineer friend uses chatgpt to do his structural engineering calculations. Apparently the paid for version is better than the free version. But still.
Sorry, what??
I hope it isn't for anything more than a shed. And even then...
You’d be amazed how many otherwise intelligent professional people have come to treat LLM output as gospel. It really is rather worrying.
I did worry that would happen. Part of the problem is people calling it "AI" when it's nothing of the sort.
The next Grenfell-style disaster could well end up being due to someone using a LLM to do something out isn't capable of doing, and not checking the results.
As I've said many times before, the threat from the current AI technology is not it deciding to take over the world, but idiots taking what the AI outputs as gospel and doing it, without using their own intelligence or common sense.
Sadly, as the 'computer says no' jokes show, people frequently do exactly this.
I was mildly alarmed today to learn that a structural engineer friend uses chatgpt to do his structural engineering calculations. Apparently the paid for version is better than the free version. But still.
Sorry, what??
I hope it isn't for anything more than a shed. And even then...
You’d be amazed how many otherwise intelligent professional people have come to treat LLM output as gospel. It really is rather worrying.
I did worry that would happen. Part of the problem is people calling it "AI" when it's nothing of the sort.
The next Grenfell-style disaster could well end up being due to someone using a LLM to do something out isn't capable of doing, and not checking the results.
It’s now extremely rare for ChatGPT to get “basic maths wrong”. In fact it is increasingly rare for these things to get anything wrong - tho of course it still happens
Anyway. Good day everyone
Seems a bit quiet. Nothing happening today?
Happened to me just last week. I used it to trawl for some info about my dog’s medical condition, and it came up with recommendations based on the precise opposite of the cause. As soon as I pointed out it had things all wrong, it agreed and came up with a reverse set of recommendations.
GPT is very easy to fool into an error if you are trying - on this occasion I actually just wanted info, but it was dangerously wrong.
It looked more likely at the weekend than it does today, after the three coalition leaders met last night. The only way the government will be brought down is if the FDP split from the coalition but this would be a suicidal move for Lindner and his party. They have been consistently under the 5% hurdle and bringing down the government is hardly going to be a vote winner for them.
I was mildly alarmed today to learn that a structural engineer friend uses chatgpt to do his structural engineering calculations. Apparently the paid for version is better than the free version. But still.
Sorry, what??
I hope it isn't for anything more than a shed. And even then...
You’d be amazed how many otherwise intelligent professional people have come to treat LLM output as gospel. It really is rather worrying.
I did worry that would happen. Part of the problem is people calling it "AI" when it's nothing of the sort.
The next Grenfell-style disaster could well end up being due to someone using a LLM to do something out isn't capable of doing, and not checking the results.
As I've said many times before, the threat from the current AI technology is not it deciding to take over the world, but idiots taking what the AI outputs as gospel and doing it, without using their own intelligence or common sense.
Sadly, as the 'computer says no' jokes show, people frequently do exactly this.
@Steven_Swinford Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday
Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
It’s indexed linked now though so future increases won’t need to be announced in the same way.
What annoys me is that it doesn’t fix anything but it matches the Labour approach of vague fix that solves the immediate crisis but doesn’t solve any part of the actual issue.
Process State thinking - another regulation, rule or some more pages of reports and the problem seems to go away for a bit.
I was mildly alarmed today to learn that a structural engineer friend uses chatgpt to do his structural engineering calculations. Apparently the paid for version is better than the free version. But still.
Sorry, what??
I hope it isn't for anything more than a shed. And even then...
You’d be amazed how many otherwise intelligent professional people have come to treat LLM output as gospel. It really is rather worrying.
I did worry that would happen. Part of the problem is people calling it "AI" when it's nothing of the sort.
The next Grenfell-style disaster could well end up being due to someone using a LLM to do something out isn't capable of doing, and not checking the results.
As I've said many times before, the threat from the current AI technology is not it deciding to take over the world, but idiots taking what the AI outputs as gospel and doing it, without using their own intelligence or common sense.
Sadly, as the 'computer says no' jokes show, people frequently do exactly this.
Are rallies for the faithful really the best use of a presidential candidates time?
In the UK we'd do a mix of interviews, soapboxes, meet the voters and battlebus stuff across a variety of constituencies.
Yes, it's quite a contrast to British campaigning. You never see Harris pointing at potholes, or Trump in a white coat staring at test tubes in a lab somewhere. Neither pulling pints either.
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
Think of it as the policy equivalent of an out of office email. They will hope they it's just enough to avoid a collapse while they work out what to do long-term.
Why they didn't come to office with a long-term plan ready to go, I don't know.
Starmer appears to have done almost none of the work expected when in Opposition.
We may have thought that his empty campaign would see him over the line as being better than the alternative, but he actually had nothing to bring forward. He just wants to be in power for the sake of being in power, no vision about how he wishes to move the country forward.
No, he does have an agenda - it's doing his bit to get us back into the EU. Sadly (for him) he'll poison that well too, as everything he touches turns into a binfire.
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
It’s indexed linked now though so future increases won’t need to be announced in the same way.
What annoys me is that it doesn’t fix anything but it matches the Labour approach of vague fix that solves the immediate crisis but doesn’t solve any part of the actual issue.
Process State thinking - another regulation, rule or some more pages of reports and the problem seems to go away for a bit.
"that solves the immediate crisis"
I don't think they have solved the immediate crisis. Unis are in deficit by 10s millions £. This is tinkering.
She’s not supporting him. She said a few vague words once in the interests of party unity. And then shut up
She out out a lengthy statement of support yesterday.
Haley yesterday: “No politician gets everything right. For those of us clear-eyed enough to see Mr. Trump’s flaws and honest enough to acknowledge them, the question is whether we’re better off with his policies or his opponent’s. On taxes, spending, inflation, immigration, energy and national security, the candidates are miles apart. And Mr. Trump is clearly the better choice.”
Are rallies for the faithful really the best use of a presidential candidates time?
In the UK we'd do a mix of interviews, soapboxes, meet the voters and battlebus stuff across a variety of constituencies.
Yes, it's quite a contrast to British campaigning. You never see Harris pointing at potholes, or Trump in a white coat staring at test tubes in a lab somewhere. Neither pulling pints either.
Are rallies for the faithful really the best use of a presidential candidates time?
In the UK we'd do a mix of interviews, soapboxes, meet the voters and battlebus stuff across a variety of constituencies.
Yes, it's quite a contrast to British campaigning. You never see Harris pointing at potholes, or Trump in a white coat staring at test tubes in a lab somewhere. Neither pulling pints either.
There is nevertheless a lot of door knocking and knocking up (not that they call it that), and leaflet delivery hung on door handles in the manner of a 'do not disturb' sign, as there aren't any letterboxes and they're not allowed to use the USPS mailboxes.
@Steven_Swinford Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday
Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines
@Steven_Swinford Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday
Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
Think of it as the policy equivalent of an out of office email. They will hope they it's just enough to avoid a collapse while they work out what to do long-term.
Why they didn't come to office with a long-term plan ready to go, I don't know.
Starmer appears to have done almost none of the work expected when in Opposition.
We may have thought that his empty campaign would see him over the line as being better than the alternative, but he actually had nothing to bring forward. He just wants to be in power for the sake of being in power, no vision about how he wishes to move the country forward.
No, he does have an agenda - it's doing his bit to get us back into the EU. Sadly (for him) he'll poison that well too, as everything he touches turns into a binfire.
Re Georgia, and the view that more women out is a positive for Harris. It is worth remembering that Georgia was the site of a particularly high-profile case of an illegal immigrant killing a female student and one that generated a lot of anger.
It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.
@Steven_Swinford Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday
Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
It’s indexed linked now though so future increases won’t need to be announced in the same way.
What annoys me is that it doesn’t fix anything but it matches the Labour approach of vague fix that solves the immediate crisis but doesn’t solve any part of the actual issue.
Process State thinking - another regulation, rule or some more pages of reports and the problem seems to go away for a bit.
"that solves the immediate crisis"
I don't think they have solved the immediate crisis. Unis are in deficit by 10s millions £. This is tinkering.
It solves the immediate the Government needs to do something bit.
And as I commented yesterday I don’t think the department of education has a clue as to the scale of the crisis in higher education or any idea what the root causes are. So it recommends more of the same and leaves universities to it.
The extra money here doesn’t even pay the new employer NI costs as far as I can work out
I was mildly alarmed today to learn that a structural engineer friend uses chatgpt to do his structural engineering calculations. Apparently the paid for version is better than the free version. But still.
Sorry, what??
I hope it isn't for anything more than a shed. And even then...
You’d be amazed how many otherwise intelligent professional people have come to treat LLM output as gospel. It really is rather worrying.
I did worry that would happen. Part of the problem is people calling it "AI" when it's nothing of the sort.
The next Grenfell-style disaster could well end up being due to someone using a LLM to do something out isn't capable of doing, and not checking the results.
It’s now extremely rare for ChatGPT to get “basic maths wrong”. In fact it is increasingly rare for these things to get anything wrong - tho of course it still happens
Anyway. Good day everyone
Seems a bit quiet. Nothing happening today?
I checked recently and it told me that "raspberry" contains two r's.
As a language model it's very impressive and turns out very plausible copy, although I find the bouncy demeanor they've given it annoying, but for anything factual it is worse than useless.
Are rallies for the faithful really the best use of a presidential candidates time?
In the UK we'd do a mix of interviews, soapboxes, meet the voters and battlebus stuff across a variety of constituencies.
Yes, it's quite a contrast to British campaigning. You never see Harris pointing at potholes, or Trump in a white coat staring at test tubes in a lab somewhere. Neither pulling pints either.
Pretending to work in MaccieDs or on a bin lorry?
Both notable for being a deviation from the usual style.
Are rallies for the faithful really the best use of a presidential candidates time?
In the UK we'd do a mix of interviews, soapboxes, meet the voters and battlebus stuff across a variety of constituencies.
Yes, it's quite a contrast to British campaigning. You never see Harris pointing at potholes, or Trump in a white coat staring at test tubes in a lab somewhere. Neither pulling pints either.
There is nevertheless a lot of door knocking and knocking up (not that they call it that), and leaflet delivery hung on door handles in the manner of a 'do not disturb' sign, as there aren't any letterboxes and they're not allowed to use the USPS mailboxes.
That presumably is the point of the rallies, to fire up the faithful and get them door knocking.
She’s not supporting him. She said a few vague words once in the interests of party unity. And then shut up
She out out a lengthy statement of support yesterday.
Haley yesterday: “No politician gets everything right. For those of us clear-eyed enough to see Mr. Trump’s flaws and honest enough to acknowledge them, the question is whether we’re better off with his policies or his opponent’s. On taxes, spending, inflation, immigration, energy and national security, the candidates are miles apart. And Mr. Trump is clearly the better choice.”
Basically those are the tick boxes she needs to tick to stand a chance in 2028 - and she’s ticked those boxes so will be able to stand in 2028
Re Georgia, and the view that more women out is a positive for Harris. It is worth remembering that Georgia was the site of a particularly high-profile case of an illegal immigrant killing a female student and one that generated a lot of anger.
It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.
@Steven_Swinford Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday
Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines
Gee, I wonder who could have leaked that?
So petty. Such a Mickey Mouse act.
No doubt that shortly there will be a cover up.
If he’d won the leadership I wonder how much of this he’d have got. I don’t think the story was that well known outside political circles. Could have been fun.
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
It’s indexed linked now though so future increases won’t need to be announced in the same way.
What annoys me is that it doesn’t fix anything but it matches the Labour approach of vague fix that solves the immediate crisis but doesn’t solve any part of the actual issue.
Process State thinking - another regulation, rule or some more pages of reports and the problem seems to go away for a bit.
"that solves the immediate crisis"
I don't think they have solved the immediate crisis. Unis are in deficit by 10s millions £. This is tinkering.
Kick the can 6 inches. Some people say that is a long way.
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
Think of it as the policy equivalent of an out of office email. They will hope they it's just enough to avoid a collapse while they work out what to do long-term.
Why they didn't come to office with a long-term plan ready to go, I don't know.
Starmer appears to have done almost none of the work expected when in Opposition.
We may have thought that his empty campaign would see him over the line as being better than the alternative, but he actually had nothing to bring forward. He just wants to be in power for the sake of being in power, no vision about how he wishes to move the country forward.
Alternatively he’s taking a pragmatic conservative approach. Lots of small things that add up, but do not create disruption. Sometimes Starmer comes across as the first conservative PM we’ve had in years,
Small "c"? You're probably correct. Not surprising you get a pass from the media if you're a radical right wing govt but any sign of radical policy from the left and there's hysterical fear mongering. A slow, cautious start from Starmer and Reeves has left the media frothing at the mouth trying to stir up dissent about ending the favourite tax avoidance schemes of multi-millionaires. I'd have preferred a bit of hope and better Comms but even if it's just competent administration, sweeping up the mess and gradual improvement that's a massive improvement over the alternative.
So much data on all these voters, yet it still takes so damn long to count the actual votes!
Happy US Election Day everyone!
We'll know the result for Florida within two hours of polls closing. Georgia, unless it's very close, likewise.
Florida could be useful since if Trump wins it by less than 5% he's probably going to lose the election overall.
Whichever way it goes, I'd be surprised if this election remains on a knife edge for very long after the polls have closed.
I don't think it'll be an easy win for any candidate either.
I think I'm saying the opposite. Whoever wins, I doubt the final result will be close.
Depends what you mean by close. Trump could win all 7 swing states, while still losing the popular vote, and only winning the tipping point state by 1%. That would be a fairly comfortable win in terms of Electoral College numbers, and one state (Nevada) better than he did in 2016. But a election where the winner loses the popular vote, and a half per cent national swing would give it to the other candidate - I'd still call that close!
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
It’s indexed linked now though so future increases won’t need to be announced in the same way.
What annoys me is that it doesn’t fix anything but it matches the Labour approach of vague fix that solves the immediate crisis but doesn’t solve any part of the actual issue.
Process State thinking - another regulation, rule or some more pages of reports and the problem seems to go away for a bit.
"that solves the immediate crisis"
I don't think they have solved the immediate crisis. Unis are in deficit by 10s millions £. This is tinkering.
Kick the can 6 inches. Some people say that is a long way.
Get people used to incremental annual changes. That’s a lot easier than one big leap, which would get everyone out on the streets.
Also why I think it was a mistake not to unfreeze fuel duty and reverse the 5p cut, or indeed go halfway on that. Get voters used to the idea certain things go up with inflation.
RCP average now +0.1 Harris. The polls have the race as a toss up. Evens the pair. The betting is almost 60:40 in Trump's favour. Harris almost 2.5 when the polls have her at 2.0. You could make 25% on your money if you backed Harris at 2.5 and were able to lay her back at 2.0. Will this prove to be the biggest Political Betting value opportunity ever? Huge liquidity available.
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
It’s indexed linked now though so future increases won’t need to be announced in the same way.
What annoys me is that it doesn’t fix anything but it matches the Labour approach of vague fix that solves the immediate crisis but doesn’t solve any part of the actual issue.
Process State thinking - another regulation, rule or some more pages of reports and the problem seems to go away for a bit.
"that solves the immediate crisis"
I don't think they have solved the immediate crisis. Unis are in deficit by 10s millions £. This is tinkering.
It solves the immediate the Government needs to do something bit.
And as I commented yesterday I don’t think the department of education has a clue as to the scale of the crisis in higher education or any idea what the root causes are. So it recommends more of the same and leaves universities to it.
The extra money here doesn’t even pay the new employer NI costs as far as I can work out
And it's a lagging receipt. I can't help thinking the last Government killed the sector with its overseas student dependents stunt. Although what Johnsonian/ Trussian/Sunakian* Tory wouldn't hanker after the days of Universities exclusively available to the elite 7%.
I don’t understand why Labour have announced this paltry increase in university tuition fees (3%). All that negative publicity for what is a small change that will do little to solve the funding problems the sector faces.
It’s indexed linked now though so future increases won’t need to be announced in the same way.
What annoys me is that it doesn’t fix anything but it matches the Labour approach of vague fix that solves the immediate crisis but doesn’t solve any part of the actual issue.
Are rallies for the faithful really the best use of a presidential candidates time?
In the UK we'd do a mix of interviews, soapboxes, meet the voters and battlebus stuff across a variety of constituencies.
Yes, it's quite a contrast to British campaigning. You never see Harris pointing at potholes, or Trump in a white coat staring at test tubes in a lab somewhere. Neither pulling pints either.
There is nevertheless a lot of door knocking and knocking up (not that they call it that), and leaflet delivery hung on door handles in the manner of a 'do not disturb' sign, as there aren't any letterboxes and they're not allowed to use the USPS mailboxes.
What's the rationale behind no use of USPS mailboxes?
That sounds very strange.
Are they allowed to use it if they send the leaflet through the post?
Comments
The numbers may not be accurate, given they don't really match with Georgia either. But @viewcode is getting very excited about them.
https://apnews.com/article/dixville-notch-primary-voting-new-hampshire-tuesday-0f7f420054403510364469ad52255270
Congress: Dem 4, Rep 2
Governor: Dem 1, Rep 5
If that continues nationally - clear Harris victory nothing to worry about
Total now 78.6m - almost precisely 50% of 2020 total vote.
Gender split remains Women 53, Men 44, Unknown 3.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
Everyone expected Starmer to become PM. And he did. He won. But relative to expectations? Arguably Farage did better - he finally became an MP…
It's published. We ran 80,000 simulations tonight. Harris won in 40,012."
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1853673781350260902
In my view, the following happened:
Russia's military was in a parlous state in the 1990s. In the 2000s, Putin started a process of rebuilding both material and training.
This material and training was shown as being poor in the 2008 Georgia invasion (under, you should note, Republican George W Bush). They 'won', but it was not as easy as Putin's military leaders had claimed it would be. ISTR some of those leaders were soon not-leaders.
Then, after six more years, he launched the 2014 Ukraine invasion. He grabbed Crimea fairly easily, but the Ukrainian response and the 'separatist' (note: Russian) forces performed very poorly. More rebuilding was necessary.
In the meantime, he gave his forces the sort of 'training' he felt it needed in places like Syria. Real combat.
Then Covid happened. Putin retreats into a hovel deep within the Kremlin. The war is delayed.
In early 2021, Putin orders forces to start massing at the Ukrainian border. He believes his forces are in a much better state, both materially and in form of training, than seven years earlier. A year later he invades.
Note that none of this timing depends on who is president. The Russian forces were simply not in a position to launch the invasion between 2016 and 2020.
We won’t know for 18 hours or so but I suspect it’s going to be a clear Harris win - and I wasn’t saying that yesterday
It's going to need a tsunami of Trump men to vote for him today. If those lines aren't dominated by men - it's over.
Oh dear, how sad, nevermind.
"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."
https://www.inquirer.com/news/early-voting-women-seniors-pennsylvania-20241101.html
A 13% split. If we again take the last ABC split of women voters favouring Harris by 11%, that is another huge firewall banked by Harris.
It is about gender.
Total vote in 2020 was 158m
So if it was 52:48 it would mean approx 6m more female voters.
F1: decided to very slightly modify my title situation with a hedge of 1.21 (laying on Betfair) on McLaren. They have a solid shot and are seen as favourites but comparing the points each team amassed in the last three races Ferrari do have a very credible shot at this. I'm still green either way and wouldn't want to change that, but Ferrari are 36 points behind, meaning they need 12 per race (and 1 in the sprint, if you like).
In the previous three race weekends they won 116 points to McLaren's 77. Big if, but if repeated then Ferrari would take the title.
Edited extra bit: worth noting there were two sprints in the last three races but just one in the final three.
Gender split of 56:43 is correct.
This election may well be different.
It appears that a lot of people think like this: 'Ann Selzer is a seasoned professional with a stellar record of predicting Iowa elections, but her result this time does not match with my amateur opinion gained from a perusal of the internet. The obvious conclusion is to discard her data and keep my opinion.'
I discarded my amateur opinion and kept her data. It may be wrong, but there are good solid reasons behind her result, which certainly seem to match early voting data elsewhere.
A big EC win can happen even when margins in individual states are small. We shall see.
Two postscripts:
I would be delighted to be wrong about GA. And the numbers being posted on here are hopeful.
Comparing early votes to 2020: umm, COVID election rules?
Qatar is interesting as I think the combination of Vegas than traveling half round the world followed by Qatar is going to be a killer for jet lag - within 5 days you need to shift your body clock 12 hours
If Ferrari do very well at Vegas then my plan is to hedge the other way. But I think the Constructors' has been quite swingy. I backed/tipped Ferrari initially at 9.5, then they slumped to about 3.2 or so, now back out to over 5.
This may change, but Piastri's been off-form for the last few races. If that doesn't improve, this could be very close.
If 100% of Georgians were to vote, the split would have to be 60:40 to men to balance up on gender. But turnout last time was 66%. On that metric for turnout, if the remaining 10% still to vote were all men, it still can't level up.
As positive as the remain campaign
In their favour is that Vegas is a night race, so if they keep a sensible wake and sleep times it’s only about four hours. Vegas race is at my 10am (their 10pm Saturday).
Edit: Nope, Qatar is a night race too, so it’s about 9 hours they need to move.
And horrible for Trump.
A Ferrari 1,2 with McLaren 3rd and 6/7th would not surprise me at all
https://x.com/AnandWrites/status/1853671093183053975
It’s also 10 hours, Vegas is 6am uk time, Qatar 4pm
Looks like Germany could be heading for an election.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/german-government-descends-into-crisis-mode/ar-AA1tufFD?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=a6ce32bfd1134468a84b07b282b848de&ei=24
What annoys me is that it doesn’t fix anything but it matches the Labour approach of vague fix that solves the immediate crisis but doesn’t solve any part of the actual issue.
The next Grenfell-style disaster could well end up being due to someone using a LLM to do something out isn't capable of doing, and not checking the results.
Why they didn't come to office with a long-term plan ready to go, I don't know.
@Steven_Swinford
Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday
Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines
We may have thought that his empty campaign would see him over the line as being better than the alternative, but he actually had nothing to bring forward. He just wants to be in power for the sake of being in power, no vision about how he wishes to move the country forward.
Anyway. Good day everyone
Seems a bit quiet. Nothing happening today?
So petty. Such a Mickey Mouse act.
If a result seems intuitively wrong, investigate it.
Sadly, as the 'computer says no' jokes show, people frequently do exactly this.
GPT is very easy to fool into an error if you are trying - on this occasion I actually just wanted info, but it was dangerously wrong.
https://x.com/mhartl/status/1851397372884172868
I don't think they have solved the immediate crisis. Unis are in deficit by 10s millions £. This is tinkering.
“No politician gets everything right. For those of us clear-eyed enough to see Mr. Trump’s flaws and honest enough to acknowledge them, the question is whether we’re better off with his policies or his opponent’s. On taxes, spending, inflation, immigration, energy and national security, the candidates are miles apart. And Mr. Trump is clearly the better choice.”
Taiwan’s TSMC Arizona fab to begin 4 nm production in December
https://taiwannews.com.tw/news/5964282
It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/will-laken-rileys-murder-tip-georgia
And as I commented yesterday I don’t think the department of education has a clue as to the scale of the crisis in higher education or any idea what the root causes are. So it recommends more of the same and leaves universities to it.
The extra money here doesn’t even pay the new employer NI costs as far as I can work out
As a language model it's very impressive and turns out very plausible copy, although I find the bouncy demeanor they've given it annoying, but for anything factual it is worse than useless.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czxrnw5qrprt
Caveat Emptor: You may be right.
(Wes Streeting on Today if I heard it correctly.)
Not surprising you get a pass from the media if you're a radical right wing govt but any sign of radical policy from the left and there's hysterical fear mongering.
A slow, cautious start from Starmer and Reeves has left the media frothing at the mouth trying to stir up dissent about ending the favourite tax avoidance schemes of multi-millionaires.
I'd have preferred a bit of hope and better Comms but even if it's just competent administration, sweeping up the mess and gradual improvement that's a massive improvement over the alternative.
NEW THREAD
Also why I think it was a mistake not to unfreeze fuel duty and reverse the 5p cut, or indeed go halfway on that. Get voters used to the idea certain things go up with inflation.
* Badenochian is going to cause me problems!
That sounds very strange.
Are they allowed to use it if they send the leaflet through the post?
Only in the USA.