Tbf, it speaks well of Jenrick that he's taken the shadow justice secretary role - which I'd have otherwise expected him to turn down.
Good on him.
Not so much for justice, though.
Perhaps he can spend some time learning about conflicts of interest, as judges have to.
It is an important brief: the justice system is one of the first key functions of the state and has, to both parties' shame, been abandoned for decades now.
Unless I’m reading Ralstons prediction wrong, he’s suggesting NV goes Harris by the thinnest of margins? That feels to me to essentially be a tossup prediction. It marries with my view that NV is going to be one of the closest states this cycle (together with Georgia) and the winner will barely scrape through in both.
Although the drift in those two has been in opposite directions. GA edging D over several cycles and NV edging R. I suspect we’ll see Washoe coming out bluer than the registration data imply.
On another point Trump’s campaign appear to be flooding the battlefield with junk polls, many from Atlas Intel. If their data are to be believed (they aren’t), they must have polled every swing state daily for the last few days.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
And just checking - they did not allocate the rest to "result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers ". I can't find a breakdown or detail anywhere.
I would guess Labour tried that wheeze on the basis that a lot of spending commitments made since July would have inevitably been made by Sunak had he stayed on.
And anyway 40 billion rise in taxes when Reeves denied any tax rises other than those announced just a few weeks before the election was inexcusable and a lie
We've been trying to run the country on the cheap for too long. Good public services, health care and decent pensions for the elderly need to be paid for. Our tax rates are still lower than most of our northern European peers (who, I might add, enjoy much better infrastructure, health care and other public services).
Oh, and Labour specified before the election which taxes would not rise (taxes on working people: Income Tax, VAT, NI), rather which taxes would rise. Anything they did not explicitly rule out has to be fair game.
NI was deceitful but it’s hard to disagree with your overall point. We want good services but too often want someone else to pay. Time to be realistic.
France apparently has the highest public spending as a proportion of GDP in Europe. And, well, you can tell. Their towns and cities, roads and railways put ours to shame. But, we also need to get better at spending the cash, great urban designers, road builders and railwaymen don’t grow on trees (except seemingly in France).
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
A lot of that looks implausibly one sided given the nature of the polling that's been seen on a knife's edge (but then the polls could be leaning all one way and still be MOE), with the 'nobody' really thinks she might win stuff (outside of a drubbing there will be some optimists), but I think the most interesting bit is whether the early voting emphasis has ended up hurting the Democrats or not.
But is the scale of registered Republicans voting early been devastating (assuming only a 'usual' number vote Democrat)? There's been a lot of talk about it being worryingly high for the Democrats in Nevada, but are the other states in a similar position?
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Nobody knows anything.
Addendum: Particularly if they are posting on Twitter.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
Woah, @rcs1000, are you saying Georgia is going to drop the early votes at 11am GMT on Nov 5th?
I CANT COUNT DAMNIT. I'M AN IDIOT.
It was 12pm here. In my head I though "5 hours to 5pm, and then another 10 hours to take it to the same time tomorrow."
I can teach you how to count. I’ve been counting lots of sheep, so I’ve got better at it.
Let’s start 1 to 10.
1 - 2 - 3 - 95 98 - NT - Me - 2000 - XP - Vista 7 - 8 - 10
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
In Chipping Norton, right on the main street, is a building that was for a long time a school, but then became a recording studio. All sorts of really unlikely and famous artists recorded there
If Ralston's explanation is correct, then there is going to be a lot of trouble in the States post-election.
HIs central thesis is that a lot of the independents are closet Democrats who have been registered by pro-Democrat organisations, and it will be those voters who will get Harris over the line in NV because the party machine will know who they are and what they need to do.
Unfortunately, it doesn't take a genius to work out how the Republicans - who have been claiming that illegal immigrants have been moved into swing states and registered as voters - will claim Harris has got in off the back of illegal immigrants voting.
Jesus, what a mess.
Hang on, NV goes narrowly Harris. That means a landslide, surely? So even if you are minded to blame Trump's loss on votes from illegals / uppity women, that's only NV and other narrow wins. What about the rest where she wins bigly?
It doesn't mean a landslide *surely*. It means one possibly? Biden won NV by 2.4% last time. If Harris only wins by 0.3% and you shift all the other states by 2% then Harris loses PA, WI, AZ and GA and Donald Trump is president. There are non-bonkers reasons to think that NV particularly tough for the Dems this time around compared to other swing states (population churn, inflation, performance with Latinos vs old white people etc) but it's the kind of speculation that often ends up wildly wrong.
Certainly he is a great anti-tipster. If you had taken the other side of his tipped trades last time, you’d have made a fortune. His tip for Trump to win Virginia was a classic of the genre.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Wow! That's a game changer. A Trump landslide. I will better accordingly. Much obliged.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Nobody knows anything.
We do know that Vickie Paladino is a Republican and Trump shill, who buys the 'stolen election' narrative of 2020 and is trying to set the same narrative up again by claiming the election results weren't what the early votes showed so there must have been fraud.
So I think we have more than a 'health warning' we have an 'ignore'.
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
I have had one go at early vote analysis. I'm assuming 5% of registered REPs vote DEM. This is the shy woman and Haley effect. I'm also assuming that 55% of Others break for DEM. This is the young and motivation effect. I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting. Both parties have been putting huge effort into GOTV early. The result is as follows: That is Kamala takes all swing states except Arizona and also takes IOWA.
NB. If 10% of registered REPS vote DEM and 60% of Others break for DEM, then she takes all the swing states plus Iowa, Florida and Ohio but not Texas.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Then Americans deserve all that is coming for them.
Which is about 6 months of Trump - the three and a half years of Vance with his Project 2025 in full swing.
Unless I’m reading Ralstons prediction wrong, he’s suggesting NV goes Harris by the thinnest of margins? That feels to me to essentially be a tossup prediction. It marries with my view that NV is going to be one of the closest states this cycle (together with Georgia) and the winner will barely scrape through in both.
Although the drift in those two has been in opposite directions. GA edging D over several cycles and NV edging R. I suspect we’ll see Washoe coming out bluer than the registration data imply.
On another point Trump’s campaign appear to be flooding the battlefield with junk polls, many from Atlas Intel. If their data are to be believed (they aren’t), they must have polled every swing state daily for the last few days.
Re your first paragraph yes - I think NV will go Trump and GA will go Harris. But both by the tiniest of margins. So that’s just a gut feel - in essence it’s a 50/50 prediction.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
Yes. That run on the pound hasn't happened yet. Maybe the next budget?
The PB Tories will certainly be breathlessly cheering it on, did you witness the unedifying spectacle over gilts yields? Embarrassing.
Yes, we should only mock Tories when their budgets are accused of crashing the economy. It's just not nice doing it to lovely Labour Chancellors is it petal?
I'm mildly disappointed with the budget. There will be some PB Tories who are deeply worried about the tax rises and borrowing (and fair enough).
But it's not Truss 2. Don't kid yourself.
I agree. With Reeves there's absolutely no possibility of the budget kick-starting the economy and generating more than the required receipts to cover the gap. In fact, in the event she still holds the position next year, she'll be back for more, because low and no growth won't cover her spending commitments.
Laughable some tried to laud it as sensible pain up front stuff.
She's put 40bn on tax, 30bn on borrowing and committed to spending it all immediately - she then pretends spending will fall in real terms for the rest of this parliament. So despite having gone hog wild on every tax opportunity left, she's going to have to go even harder next year to push the cliff edge back another year.
Leave aside that most of these taxes will raise far less than projected (and the projections already recognise they'll harm activity and decay), there's going to be a right fiscal mess by the next election, and they're setting their hopes on 1 more heave that a few extra % for the NHS will magically fix its productivity mess.
Certainly he is a great anti-tipster. If you had taken the other side of his tipped trades last time, you’d have made a fortune. His tip for Trump to win Virginia was a classic of the genre.
Wasn't there some tipster on her eclaiming in 2020 that the Democrats could win South Carolina and even Alaska?
I seem to recall there was. There was a lot of utter nonsense on here in 2020.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
Woah, @rcs1000, are you saying Georgia is going to drop the early votes at 11am GMT on Nov 5th?
I CANT COUNT DAMNIT. I'M AN IDIOT.
It was 12pm here. In my head I though "5 hours to 5pm, and then another 10 hours to take it to the same time tomorrow."
I can teach you how to count. I’ve been counting lots of sheep, so I’ve got better at it.
Let’s start 1 to 10.
1 - 2 - 3 - 95 98 - NT - Me - 2000 - XP - Vista 7 - 8 - 10
👩🎓
I think you are missing a few.
Surely Vista is worse than dropping the C-bomb on here, right?
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
Woah, @rcs1000, are you saying Georgia is going to drop the early votes at 11am GMT on Nov 5th?
I CANT COUNT DAMNIT. I'M AN IDIOT.
It was 12pm here. In my head I though "5 hours to 5pm, and then another 10 hours to take it to the same time tomorrow."
I can teach you how to count. I’ve been counting lots of sheep, so I’ve got better at it.
Let’s start 1 to 10.
1 - 2 - 3 - 95 98 - NT - Me - 2000 - XP - Vista 7 - 8 - 10
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
You need to be online between 12am and 1am when FL and GA results start hitting the tapes.
Thanks. Which websites and tv channels should we watch,? I would like to get everything planned as I have a lot riding on this and a young family.
Politicalbetting would be my recommendation.
Nothing will ever top 2016. IIRC Andy_JS had a spreadsheet that was very useful for looking at the incoming results and realising that Clinton was in trouble. We probably had a better idea on here of what was going on than almost anywhere else in the world.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
In Chipping Norton, right on the main street, is a building that was for a long time a school, but then became a recording studio. All sorts of really unlikely and famous artists recorded there
And so did Radiohead apparently
And now the building is a fucking dentists !!!
I’d hope there is at least a plaque outside.
There is
But no plaque inside.
There was a time, under a less benevolent regime, when a 'joke' like that would have demanded exile to ConHome for an extended period
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
And just checking - they did not allocate the rest to "result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers ". I can't find a breakdown or detail anywhere.
I would guess Labour tried that wheeze on the basis that a lot of spending commitments made since July would have inevitably been made by Sunak had he stayed on.
And anyway 40 billion rise in taxes when Reeves denied any tax rises other than those announced just a few weeks before the election was inexcusable and a lie
We've been trying to run the country on the cheap for too long. Good public services, health care and decent pensions for the elderly need to be paid for. Our tax rates are still lower than most of our northern European peers (who, I might add, enjoy much better infrastructure, health care and other public services).
Oh, and Labour specified before the election which taxes would not rise (taxes on working people: Income Tax, VAT, NI), rather which taxes would rise. Anything they did not explicitly rule out has to be fair game.
NI was deceitful but it’s hard to disagree with your overall point. We want good services but too often want someone else to pay. Time to be realistic.
France apparently has the highest public spending as a proportion of GDP in Europe. And, well, you can tell. Their towns and cities, roads and railways put ours to shame. But, we also need to get better at spending the cash, great urban designers, road builders and railwaymen don’t grow on trees (except seemingly in France).
There is bleating about the U.K. tax burden being the highest ever, but it was pointed out last week that that is pretty much the case across the developed world and is primarily a function of ageing societies. It’s not going to get better until we go all Logan’s Run (start at 75 and work down?)
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I always go full daft with UK elections. Dawn or bust.
In this one I think I want to know how big a set of covers I need to hide under before retiring, but as it is likely to go on until January, it probably isn't worth a zombie day.
I’ll be behind the sofa for reports from Pennsylvania…
I asked my US colleagues today who was going to win (most of them are in PA)
Only one was prepared to opine.
Trump, either narrowly or bigly.
In reality, they’ll have as much of a clue as we do.
There could well be an American David Herdson pounding the streets of Scranton, with a sense of how the election is going just starting to develop in his or her subconscious.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
In Chipping Norton, right on the main street, is a building that was for a long time a school, but then became a recording studio. All sorts of really unlikely and famous artists recorded there
And so did Radiohead apparently
And now the building is a fucking dentists !!!
Stopping any more Radiohead albums, one studio at a time...
Certainly he is a great anti-tipster. If you had taken the other side of his tipped trades last time, you’d have made a fortune. His tip for Trump to win Virginia was a classic of the genre.
Wasn't there some tipster on her eclaiming in 2020 that the Democrats could win South Carolina and even Alaska?
Of course, there are always people getting high on their own supply.
I've bet on Trump this cycle, and I've bet on Harris. A few days ago I thought Trump was the slight - but clear - favorite. Now I think the opposite.
The moment the Georgia early voting numbers drop tomorrow, we'll get a really good feel for whether the election will be either a blow out, or a tight run thing.
If Kamala isn't winning early votes in Georgia, it's all over for her. At the same time, if she's 5 points ahead with 75+% counted, then it's highly unlikely she will lose the State, and if she wins Georgia, I suspect she's probably won the Presidency.
Of course, it'll probably end up with Harris up 2.5%, so we'll have literally no idea, and need to stay up all night.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
A lot of that looks implausibly one sided given the nature of the polling that's been seen on a knife's edge (but then the polls could be leaning all one way and still be MOE), with the 'nobody' really thinks she might win stuff (outside of a drubbing there will be some optimists), but I think the most interesting bit is whether the early voting emphasis has ended up hurting the Democrats or not.
But is the scale of registered Republicans voting early been devastating (assuming only a 'usual' number vote Democrat)? There's been a lot of talk about it being worryingly high for the Democrats in Nevada, but are the other states in a similar position?
We all post horseshit sometimes, but the secondhand wishcasting of a MAGA councillor is different level horseshit really.
Interesting to see how John Oliver has urged people to vote Harris, as I've not watched him for awhile. He really seemed to hate Biden and so his 2020 urge was very 'we don't have any other option to beat, Trump, unfortunately'. I assumed he'd be happier with Harris then, but the video I've seen shared shows him just as reluctant and unhappy about having no other choice to beat Trump than her. It was shared as a 'brilliant take' on why he's voting Harris, but if there's very progressive people still wrestling that hard with the idea I find it far from encouraging. https://nitter.poast.org/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1853308493060518391#m
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Posted by a GOP council woman.
Do the final polls show anything else than if Harris wins it will be scraping home in Michigan and Pennsylvania and probably Wisconsin but clearly not counting on either?
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Wow! That's a game changer. A Trump landslide. I will better accordingly. Much obliged.
"A Democrat consultant friend in a swing state."
In other words, some guy.
No-one knows anything. It just tells you the Dems are a bit nervous and trying to drive turnout, just as Trump is overconfident.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
Woah, @rcs1000, are you saying Georgia is going to drop the early votes at 11am GMT on Nov 5th?
I CANT COUNT DAMNIT. I'M AN IDIOT.
It was 12pm here. In my head I though "5 hours to 5pm, and then another 10 hours to take it to the same time tomorrow."
I can teach you how to count. I’ve been counting lots of sheep, so I’ve got better at it.
Let’s start 1 to 10.
1 - 2 - 3 - 95 98 - NT - Me - 2000 - XP - Vista 7 - 8 - 10
👩🎓
I think you are missing a few.
Surely Vista is worse than dropping the C-bomb on here, right?
That platform still brings me out in hives.
Those of us who lived through Longhorn (which never saw the light of day) laugh in the face of Vista.
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
I have had one go at early vote analysis. I'm assuming 5% of registered REPs vote DEM. This is the shy woman and Haley effect. I'm also assuming that 55% of Others break for DEM. This is the young and motivation effect. I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting. Both parties have been putting huge effort into GOTV early. The result is as follows: That is Kamala takes all swing states except Arizona and also takes IOWA.
NB. If 10% of registered REPS vote DEM and 60% of Others break for DEM, then she takes all the swing states plus Iowa, Florida and Ohio but not Texas.
Are you trying to forecast early voting or total voting - you talk like the latter, but your PA #s would need you to be insane to believe it.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
In Chipping Norton, right on the main street, is a building that was for a long time a school, but then became a recording studio. All sorts of really unlikely and famous artists recorded there
And so did Radiohead apparently
And now the building is a fucking dentists !!!
Stopping any more Radiohead albums, one studio at a time...
There's a joke in there somewhere about dentist's drills and Radiohead difficult fifth LP.
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
I have had one go at early vote analysis. I'm assuming 5% of registered REPs vote DEM. This is the shy woman and Haley effect. I'm also assuming that 55% of Others break for DEM. This is the young and motivation effect. I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting. Both parties have been putting huge effort into GOTV early. The result is as follows: That is Kamala takes all swing states except Arizona and also takes IOWA.
NB. If 10% of registered REPS vote DEM and 60% of Others break for DEM, then she takes all the swing states plus Iowa, Florida and Ohio but not Texas.
Tbf, it speaks well of Jenrick that he's taken the shadow justice secretary role - which I'd have otherwise expected him to turn down.
Good on him.
Not so much for justice, though.
Perhaps he can spend some time learning about conflicts of interest, as judges have to.
Not american judges, on the Supreme Court anyway.
But Justice is an important brief, and I'd think easier in opposition, you can basically say however well the government is doing it could be doing better, so a good gig to get.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Vickie Paladino (vickiefornyc) is a Republican, just saying.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
You need to be online between 12am and 1am when FL and GA results start hitting the tapes.
Thanks. Which websites and tv channels should we watch,? I would like to get everything planned as I have a lot riding on this and a young family.
Politicalbetting would be my recommendation.
Nothing will ever top 2016. IIRC Andy_JS had a spreadsheet that was very useful for looking at the incoming results and realising that Clinton was in trouble. We probably had a better idea on here of what was going on than almost anywhere else in the world.
Oh, 2016 was my second most profitable night of gambling ever. Only Brexit exceeded it in terms of sheer unadulterated easy money.
Does anyone know if Polymarket has an API? I'd love to hit those markets hard (and automatically) as the Georgia numbers start to be released.
In 2020 I was up all night, with a takeaway delivered at 1am. Good News - have just found a local* takeaway that will deliver at 1am. So maybe that's the plan. Fuel. Then the beautiful combination of caffeine and cake on Wednesday until I crash to bed early.
Work doesn't look too bad Wednesday. And then Thursday I start delivering my "its polling day" leaflet at 7am.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Wow! That's a game changer. A Trump landslide. I will better accordingly. Much obliged.
On the other hand Katy Perry came out for Harris a couple of hours ago.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
Woah, @rcs1000, are you saying Georgia is going to drop the early votes at 11am GMT on Nov 5th?
I CANT COUNT DAMNIT. I'M AN IDIOT.
It was 12pm here. In my head I though "5 hours to 5pm, and then another 10 hours to take it to the same time tomorrow."
I can teach you how to count. I’ve been counting lots of sheep, so I’ve got better at it.
Let’s start 1 to 10.
1 - 2 - 3 - 95 98 - NT - Me - 2000 - XP - Vista 7 - 8 - 10
👩🎓
I think you are missing a few.
Surely Vista is worse than dropping the C-bomb on here, right?
That platform still brings me out in hives.
Those of us who lived through Longhorn (which never saw the light of day) laugh in the face of Vista.
You just triggered a PTSD flashback. I had completely buried all memory of Longhorn, until now...
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
In Chipping Norton, right on the main street, is a building that was for a long time a school, but then became a recording studio. All sorts of really unlikely and famous artists recorded there
And so did Radiohead apparently
And now the building is a fucking dentists !!!
Stopping any more Radiohead albums, one studio at a time...
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
I have had one go at early vote analysis. I'm assuming 5% of registered REPs vote DEM. This is the shy woman and Haley effect. I'm also assuming that 55% of Others break for DEM. This is the young and motivation effect. I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting. Both parties have been putting huge effort into GOTV early. The result is as follows: That is Kamala takes all swing states except Arizona and also takes IOWA.
NB. If 10% of registered REPS vote DEM and 60% of Others break for DEM, then she takes all the swing states plus Iowa, Florida and Ohio but not Texas.
I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting.
This will categorically not be the case for PA. Early voting (By party analysis/affiliation) was stronger for the Democrats in PA in 2020 than it is now.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
In Chipping Norton, right on the main street, is a building that was for a long time a school, but then became a recording studio. All sorts of really unlikely and famous artists recorded there
And so did Radiohead apparently
And now the building is a fucking dentists !!!
Stopping any more Radiohead albums, one studio at a time...
There's a joke in there somewhere about dentist's drills and Radiohead difficult fifth LP.
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
I have had one go at early vote analysis. I'm assuming 5% of registered REPs vote DEM. This is the shy woman and Haley effect. I'm also assuming that 55% of Others break for DEM. This is the young and motivation effect. I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting. Both parties have been putting huge effort into GOTV early. The result is as follows: That is Kamala takes all swing states except Arizona and also takes IOWA.
NB. If 10% of registered REPS vote DEM and 60% of Others break for DEM, then she takes all the swing states plus Iowa, Florida and Ohio but not Texas.
Are you trying to forecast early voting or total voting - you talk like the latter, but your PA #s would need you to be insane to believe it.
I'm trying to forecast early voting but also assuming that total voting follows the same pattern for lack of reason to think otherwise, given the efforts of both parties to GOTV early.
I agree Pennsylvania looks odd. Is there any theory why the early turnout pattern in Pennsylvania should be different from the rest?
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Wow! That's a game changer. A Trump landslide. I will better accordingly. Much obliged.
"A Democrat consultant friend in a swing state."
In other words, some guy.
No-one knows anything. It just tells you the Dems are a bit nervous and trying to drive turnout, just as Trump is overconfident.
Unfortuanately, that's the charitable version of this. The other is that the "some guy" is just the voices in her head.
Trumpism does that to people. (And yes, different people on the left do the same... But DJT is the current master of the genre.)
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
In 2020 I was up all night, with a takeaway delivered at 1am. Good News - have just found a local* takeaway that will deliver at 1am. So maybe that's the plan. Fuel. Then the beautiful combination of caffeine and cake on Wednesday until I crash to bed early.
Work doesn't look too bad Wednesday. And then Thursday I start delivering my "its polling day" leaflet at 7am.
*local. Fraserburgh! 11 miles.
People on long motorway journeys sometimes pass the time counting Eddie Stobart trucks.
You can increase the level of difficulty by counting Gray Adams trailers instead.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Someone I know does the signing at her concerts. I'm not quite sure how that works but it seems to be a career.
She doesn’t even sign her own autographs?
I assumed it was a typo of singing.
Deaf people get to go to concerts too! What are you - disabilist?
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Vickie Paladino (vickiefornyc) is a Republican, just saying.
Surely you don't think that makes it at all implausible that someone well placed in the opposing party would tell her that and give her permission to post it all on Twitter?
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Vickie Paladino (vickiefornyc) is a Republican, just saying.
Surely you don't think that makes it at all implausible that someone well placed in the opposing party would tell her that and give her permission to post it all on Twitter?
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
I have had one go at early vote analysis. I'm assuming 5% of registered REPs vote DEM. This is the shy woman and Haley effect. I'm also assuming that 55% of Others break for DEM. This is the young and motivation effect. I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting. Both parties have been putting huge effort into GOTV early. The result is as follows: That is Kamala takes all swing states except Arizona and also takes IOWA.
NB. If 10% of registered REPS vote DEM and 60% of Others break for DEM, then she takes all the swing states plus Iowa, Florida and Ohio but not Texas.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Wow! That's a game changer. A Trump landslide. I will better accordingly. Much obliged.
"A Democrat consultant friend in a swing state."
In other words, some guy.
No-one knows anything. It just tells you the Dems are a bit nervous and trying to drive turnout, just as Trump is overconfident.
Let's be really specific "A Democrat consultant friend [of a Republican Congresswoman] in a swing state."
It's all bullshit.
No one knows anything.
The only facts we know are (a) early voting looks good for the Republicans in Nevada, because of both the Dem/Republican split and the male/female split, and (b) it looks good for the Democrats in Georgia, because female voters outnumber men by almost 30%.
BUT BOTH OF THOSE COULD COMPLETELY CHANGE IN THE NEXT 25 HOURS. We could see lots of female democrats vote in Nevada, and lots of male Republicans in Georgia.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
In Chipping Norton, right on the main street, is a building that was for a long time a school, but then became a recording studio. All sorts of really unlikely and famous artists recorded there
And so did Radiohead apparently
And now the building is a fucking dentists !!!
Stopping any more Radiohead albums, one studio at a time...
There's a joke in there somewhere about dentist's drills and Radiohead difficult fifth LP.
There last album was an amalgam, but could win a mercury award.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Wow! That's a game changer. A Trump landslide. I will better accordingly. Much obliged.
On the other hand Katy Perry came out for Harris a couple of hours ago.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
In Chipping Norton, right on the main street, is a building that was for a long time a school, but then became a recording studio. All sorts of really unlikely and famous artists recorded there
And so did Radiohead apparently
And now the building is a fucking dentists !!!
I’d hope there is at least a plaque outside.
There is
But no plaque inside.
There was a time, under a less benevolent regime, when a 'joke' like that would have demanded exile to ConHome for an extended period
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
I’d be surprised if this Democratic consultant is anything more than a figment of the imagination of this individual. Very much appears like they are doing what they accuse the Dems of doing and pushing out a motivational story.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Wow! That's a game changer. A Trump landslide. I will better accordingly. Much obliged.
On the other hand Katy Perry came out for Harris a couple of hours ago.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Vickie Paladino (vickiefornyc) is a Republican, just saying.
Surely you don't think that makes it at all implausible that someone well placed in the opposing party would tell her that and give her permission to post it all on Twitter?
The odd thing would be why give them permission to repeat 'some' of what they discussed? The bits they repeat are absolutely devastating if true, and a complete bombshell as, apparently, message discipline has been pretty high despite these apparently obvious truths. So permission was given to repeat it, so their GOP friend would get plaudits when proven right, but not to repeat other stuff?
Of course it could all end up correct, as a wide man said no one knows anything, but the recounting is a little odd.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I always go full daft with UK elections. Dawn or bust.
In this one I think I want to know how big a set of covers I need to hide under before retiring, but as it is likely to go on until January, it probably isn't worth a zombie day.
I’ll be behind the sofa for reports from Pennsylvania…
I asked my US colleagues today who was going to win (most of them are in PA)
Only one was prepared to opine.
Trump, either narrowly or bigly.
In reality, they’ll have as much of a clue as we do.
There could well be an American David Herdson pounding the streets of Scranton, with a sense of how the election is going just starting to develop in his or her subconscious.
Haha, yes. GE 2017 - they don't make them like that any more.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Wow! That's a game changer. A Trump landslide. I will better accordingly. Much obliged.
On the other hand Katy Perry came out for Harris a couple of hours ago.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Then Americans deserve all that is coming for them.
I've never in my life seen one side so confident (Republicans) and one side so full of utter doom (Democrats) in what is objectively pretty much a coin toss.
You’ve never followed a close election the Democrats are involved in before ?
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
She’s a republican who was removed from the mental health committee for being homophobic.
How many Democratic consultants do you think would share that insight with her?
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
I have had one go at early vote analysis. I'm assuming 5% of registered REPs vote DEM. This is the shy woman and Haley effect. I'm also assuming that 55% of Others break for DEM. This is the young and motivation effect. I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting. Both parties have been putting huge effort into GOTV early. The result is as follows: That is Kamala takes all swing states except Arizona and also takes IOWA.
NB. If 10% of registered REPS vote DEM and 60% of Others break for DEM, then she takes all the swing states plus Iowa, Florida and Ohio but not Texas.
I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting.
This will categorically not be the case for PA. Early voting (By party analysis/affiliation) was stronger for the Democrats in PA in 2020 than it is now.
In 2020 Trump was discouraging his supporters from mail in voting so you'd expect DEMs to be much further ahead in early voting in 2020. It distorted the pattern.
Yes, I very much believe that Vicky-random-GOP-er was speaking with some Democratic guy who told her all was lost and she could tell everyone about it on X in the scoop of the century.
I cannot conceive why Vicky might want to get something out on the eve of polls to persuade Democratic voters the game is up and it’s not worth bothering. Nope.
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
I have had one go at early vote analysis. I'm assuming 5% of registered REPs vote DEM. This is the shy woman and Haley effect. I'm also assuming that 55% of Others break for DEM. This is the young and motivation effect. I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting. Both parties have been putting huge effort into GOTV early. The result is as follows: That is Kamala takes all swing states except Arizona and also takes IOWA.
NB. If 10% of registered REPS vote DEM and 60% of Others break for DEM, then she takes all the swing states plus Iowa, Florida and Ohio but not Texas.
I don’t believe anywhere close to 5% of Republicans will vote Harris.
Why would they? Trump may be The Golgothan, but he still delivers the things that they believe in.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
She’s a republican who was removed from the mental health committee for being homophobic.
How many Democratic consultants do you think would share that insight with her?
A very Machiavellian one who wanted to confuse the fuck out of her?
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
You need to be online between 12am and 1am when FL and GA results start hitting the tapes.
Thanks. Which websites and tv channels should we watch,? I would like to get everything planned as I have a lot riding on this and a young family.
Politicalbetting would be my recommendation.
CNN & Fox will be my go-to's - try to watch US & not UK coverage if you can imho.
Despite their normal political bias, Fox’s election night coverage rivals that of CNN. I’d recommend watching either or both, choose a site like NY Times to get details number results, and have the conversation here on PB
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
Woah, @rcs1000, are you saying Georgia is going to drop the early votes at 11am GMT on Nov 5th?
I CANT COUNT DAMNIT. I'M AN IDIOT.
It was 12pm here. In my head I though "5 hours to 5pm, and then another 10 hours to take it to the same time tomorrow."
I can teach you how to count. I’ve been counting lots of sheep, so I’ve got better at it.
Let’s start 1 to 10.
1 - 2 - 3 - 95 98 - NT - Me - 2000 - XP - Vista 7 - 8 - 10
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Wow! That's a game changer. A Trump landslide. I will better accordingly. Much obliged.
On the other hand Katy Perry came out for Harris a couple of hours ago.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
I read things like this from both sides at nearly every election.
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
I have had one go at early vote analysis. I'm assuming 5% of registered REPs vote DEM. This is the shy woman and Haley effect. I'm also assuming that 55% of Others break for DEM. This is the young and motivation effect. I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting. Both parties have been putting huge effort into GOTV early. The result is as follows: That is Kamala takes all swing states except Arizona and also takes IOWA.
NB. If 10% of registered REPS vote DEM and 60% of Others break for DEM, then she takes all the swing states plus Iowa, Florida and Ohio but not Texas.
PA is at 64% for Harris and WI at 57%? Well, it's a view
PS well done though for doing the work and coming out with a view.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
You need to be online between 12am and 1am when FL and GA results start hitting the tapes.
Thanks. Which websites and tv channels should we watch,? I would like to get everything planned as I have a lot riding on this and a young family.
Politicalbetting would be my recommendation.
CNN & Fox will be my go-to's - try to watch US & not UK coverage if you can imho.
Despite their normal political bias, Fox’s election night coverage rivals that of CNN. I’d recommend watching either or both, choose a site like NY Times to get details number results, and have the conversation here on PB
Yes - Fox were the first to call Arizona for Biden in 2020, much to Trump's fury.
For my money CNN is possibly the best English language election coverage in the world, although I think ABC Australia, CBC Canada and Sky UK are also all pretty good.
Re time, remember that USA "fell back" an hour (most places) this weekend, due to switch from Daylight > Standard time.
As did we. I hope you had a big enough cupboard in which to save your daylight.
I'm a morning person . . . an EARLY-morning person. Get up at 5am the walk a ways to get a paper, coffee and a ham biscuit (American) for breakfast at 6am. Try to be in bed by approx 9pm.
So looking forward (eventually) to more light in the early morning . . . and earlier sundown no problemo for me, myself & I.
I'm running the Iran team, which is full, but there are quite a few spaces left on other teams. Essentially it runs non-stop from 10am to 5pm, with turns once an hour - it's unofficially known that the international rivalries being simulated will be spiced up by the arrival of aliens with unknown intentions. It's basically competitive role-playing fun.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
She’s a republican who was removed from the mental health committee for being homophobic.
How many Democratic consultants do you think would share that insight with her?
The ones who double up as Albanian taxi-drivers? They are notoriously garrulous.
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
I have had one go at early vote analysis. I'm assuming 5% of registered REPs vote DEM. This is the shy woman and Haley effect. I'm also assuming that 55% of Others break for DEM. This is the young and motivation effect. I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting. Both parties have been putting huge effort into GOTV early. The result is as follows: That is Kamala takes all swing states except Arizona and also takes IOWA.
NB. If 10% of registered REPS vote DEM and 60% of Others break for DEM, then she takes all the swing states plus Iowa, Florida and Ohio but not Texas.
I don’t believe anywhere close to 5% of Republicans will vote Harris.
Why would they? Trump may be The Golgothan, but he still delivers the things that they believe in.
Harris detests everything they believe in.
These are registered Republicans not all MAGAs. They include Cheney Romney Bush type people. Also wives of MAGA husbands. I'm assuming 95% of registered Republicans vote for Trump. I think that's on the high side.
But we are both guessing as we pass the time waiting for 1am on Wednesday morning.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
She’s a republican who was removed from the mental health committee for being homophobic.
How many Democratic consultants do you think would share that insight with her?
"Not a single Democrat I speak with believes that Vice President Kamala Harris will win on Tuesday."
One of the points I have made for a while now and which has never really been discussed, is that there are a lot of high profile Democrat names - Shapiro, Whitmer, Newsom et al - who have a lot to lose from a Harris win as it would mean they effectively couldn't stand for a Presidential run in 2028. However, if Harris is defeated, not only does that obstacle go away but they can effectively start their campaigns from next week/
New Hampshire Dartmouth poll could of course be wrong - but even at very outer limits it implies move to Harris and it also gives a bit more credence to Iowa Selzer and the Kansas poll.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
She’s a republican who was removed from the mental health committee for being homophobic.
How many Democratic consultants do you think would share that insight with her?
Comments
It is an important brief: the justice system is one of the first key functions of the state and has, to both parties' shame, been abandoned for decades now.
On another point Trump’s campaign appear to be flooding the battlefield with junk polls, many from Atlas Intel. If their data are to be believed (they aren’t), they must have polled every swing state daily for the last few days.
I hope Michael Caine is commanding the flying platoon again this time.
But is the scale of registered Republicans voting early been devastating (assuming only a 'usual' number vote Democrat)? There's been a lot of talk about it being worryingly high for the Democrats in Nevada, but are the other states in a similar position?
So I think we have more than a 'health warning' we have an 'ignore'.
I'm assuming 5% of registered REPs vote DEM. This is the shy woman and Haley effect.
I'm also assuming that 55% of Others break for DEM. This is the young and motivation effect.
I'm also assuming that the on the day voting follows a similar pattern to the early day voting. Both parties have been putting huge effort into GOTV early.
The result is as follows:
That is Kamala takes all swing states except Arizona and also takes IOWA.
NB. If 10% of registered REPS vote DEM and 60% of Others break for DEM, then she takes all the swing states plus Iowa, Florida and Ohio but not Texas.
I don’t believe the outcome will hinge on either.
She's put 40bn on tax, 30bn on borrowing and committed to spending it all immediately - she then pretends spending will fall in real terms for the rest of this parliament. So despite having gone hog wild on every tax opportunity left, she's going to have to go even harder next year to push the cliff edge back another year.
Leave aside that most of these taxes will raise far less than projected (and the projections already recognise they'll harm activity and decay), there's going to be a right fiscal mess by the next election, and they're setting their hopes on 1 more heave that a few extra % for the NHS will magically fix its productivity mess.
That platform still brings me out in hives.
3
3.11
3.11 for workgroups
95
And I'm not kidding.
(Romeo is UTC+5; Juliet is Local time)
I've bet on Trump this cycle, and I've bet on Harris. A few days ago I thought Trump was the slight - but clear - favorite. Now I think the opposite.
The moment the Georgia early voting numbers drop tomorrow, we'll get a really good feel for whether the election will be either a blow out, or a tight run thing.
If Kamala isn't winning early votes in Georgia, it's all over for her. At the same time, if she's 5 points ahead with 75+% counted, then it's highly unlikely she will lose the State, and if she wins Georgia, I suspect she's probably won the Presidency.
Of course, it'll probably end up with Harris up 2.5%, so we'll have literally no idea, and need to stay up all night.
But hey ho.
https://nitter.poast.org/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1853308493060518391#m
Do the final polls show anything else than if Harris wins it will be scraping home in Michigan and Pennsylvania and probably Wisconsin but clearly not counting on either?
In other words, some guy.
No-one knows anything. It just tells you the Dems are a bit nervous and trying to drive turnout, just as Trump is overconfident.
Hilarious🤣
But Justice is an important brief, and I'd think easier in opposition, you can basically say however well the government is doing it could be doing better, so a good gig to get.
Does anyone know if Polymarket has an API? I'd love to hit those markets hard (and automatically) as the Georgia numbers start to be released.
Work doesn't look too bad Wednesday. And then Thursday I start delivering my "its polling day" leaflet at 7am.
*local. Fraserburgh! 11 miles.
This will categorically not be the case for PA. Early voting (By party analysis/affiliation) was stronger for the Democrats in PA in 2020 than it is now.
I agree Pennsylvania looks odd. Is there any theory why the early turnout pattern in Pennsylvania should be different from the rest?
Trumpism does that to people. (And yes, different people on the left do the same... But DJT is the current master of the genre.)
You can increase the level of difficulty by counting Gray Adams trailers instead.
Mistyped: - is next to +
Romeo is indeed UTC-5
(Yes, I did see your sarcasm!)
It's all bullshit.
No one knows anything.
The only facts we know are (a) early voting looks good for the Republicans in Nevada, because of both the Dem/Republican split and the male/female split, and (b) it looks good for the Democrats in Georgia, because female voters outnumber men by almost 30%.
BUT BOTH OF THOSE COULD COMPLETELY CHANGE IN THE NEXT 25 HOURS. We could see lots of female democrats vote in Nevada, and lots of male Republicans in Georgia.
We just don't know.
@Nigel_Farage
Just landed in America with @GBNEWS
A Trump win will make the world a safer place. 🇺🇸
====
Everyone happy in Clacton tonight?
Is that what sent MexicanPete over the edge?
But worth noting the Gender split is still:
Women 53, Men 44, Unknown 3
Of course it could all end up correct, as a wide man said no one knows anything, but the recounting is a little odd.
To coin a phrase.
How many Democratic consultants do you think would share that insight with her?
I cannot conceive why Vicky might want to get something out on the eve of polls to persuade Democratic voters the game is up and it’s not worth bothering. Nope.
Why would they? Trump may be The Golgothan, but he still delivers the things that they believe in.
Harris detests everything they believe in.
1, 2, skip a few, 99, 100
We have the prison cells waiting
https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1853499585332736428
Harris 62, Trump 34
(2020 - Biden 53, Trump 45)
Has to be encouraging for Harris - it's an absolutely massive swing.
Having JD Vance canvass me would make me vote Dem too.
PS well done though for doing the work and coming out with a view.
For my money CNN is possibly the best English language election coverage in the world, although I think ABC Australia, CBC Canada and Sky UK are also all pretty good.
So looking forward (eventually) to more light in the early morning . . . and earlier sundown no problemo for me, myself & I.
https://www.verylargehugegames.com/tickets
I'm running the Iran team, which is full, but there are quite a few spaces left on other teams. Essentially it runs non-stop from 10am to 5pm, with turns once an hour - it's unofficially known that the international rivalries being simulated will be spiced up by the arrival of aliens with unknown intentions. It's basically competitive role-playing fun.
But we are both guessing as we pass the time waiting for 1am on Wednesday morning.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2024/11/03/the_two_decisions_that_crushed_harris_campaign_634841.html
Note the line:
"Not a single Democrat I speak with believes that Vice President Kamala Harris will win on Tuesday."
One of the points I have made for a while now and which has never really been discussed, is that there are a lot of high profile Democrat names - Shapiro, Whitmer, Newsom et al - who have a lot to lose from a Harris win as it would mean they effectively couldn't stand for a Presidential run in 2028. However, if Harris is defeated, not only does that obstacle go away but they can effectively start their campaigns from next week/