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Time to parse and over analyse every comment – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    edited November 2024
    Sean_F said:

    I don’t believe anywhere close to 5% of Republicans will vote Harris.

    Why would they? Trump may be The Golgothan, but he still delivers the things that they believe in.

    Harris detests everything they believe in.
    Wikipedia claims 6% Republicans voted Biden last time, and 6% Democrats voted Trump based on exit polling. Party registration must lag a lot I guess.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

    Now I have no idea if that is right, or what number Harris will need to get, and relying on them as your ace in the hole is probably unwise, but she has definitely made a concerted push to appeal to the 10-15% of Republicans who are not full on MAGA Trump fans. If they can get a portion of those, it will be significant.
  • ToryJim said:

    That’s insane. If NH is moving that much then surely other states might be in play that have floated totally under the radar?
    How reliable is Dartmouth as a pollster? - and what does that imply for the blue wall?
  • Interesting article in the Telegraph about errors in the 2020 US census, which benefited the Democrats:

    "Feed these over- and undercounts through the system used to apportion electoral college votes, and analysis from the Heritage Foundation suggests that the results look something like this: Colorado was given one elector more than it should have received, Florida received two too few, Texas one too few, while Minnesota and Rhode Island each cling on to a vote they should have lost.

    Had the Census found just 26 fewer people in Minnesota, then the state would have missed out on an elector; it’s now believed that the population was overcounted by about 217,000. Similarly, Florida and Texas needed about 172,000 and 189,000 more residents respectively to each get an additional vote; they were undercounted by approximately 761,000 and 560,000 respectively.

    With polling for the election on a knife-edge, it’s not hard to draw out a scenario where this is enough to sway the overall result. Texas and Florida are expected to vote Republican; Minnesota, Colorado and Rhode Island Democrat, depriving Trump of three electoral college votes while handing three to Harris."
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    ToryJim said:

    That’s insane. If NH is moving that much then surely other states might be in play that have floated totally under the radar?
    If so, then the national polling is going to be a hilarious failure.

    (And it might well be. I lumped all my available funds on Harris today.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    edited November 2024
    ToryJim said:

    That’s insane. If NH is moving that much then surely other states might be in play that have floated totally under the radar?
    Could be people haven't solved the underestimating Trump's voteshare problem. Or places like Florida are in play, either one. Or its piling up in the safe areas.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Tomorrow's Times


    Love the hat.

    That guy got three years iirc.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003
    edited November 2024
    ToryJim said:

    That’s insane. If NH is moving that much then surely other states might be in play that have floated totally under the radar?
    Kamala is coming home!

    I see another £2.5 million has been placed on Trump on BF at 1.7. The previous £2 million was laid. Desperate. Harris is great value at 2.44
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,077
    Driver said:

    Unless she's merely piling up the votes in the safe states...
    New Hampshire isn't that safe for the Democrats ! It's no Conneticut or Massachussetts.
  • I can't be bothered to listen right now. He said he was doing four today.
    Trump is talking about trans boxers now, and musing about Tyson vs Kamala.

  • Jonathan Martin
    @jmart
    perhaps the most telling sign of the last 72 hours, even the biggest Democratic worrywarts are sounding optimistic


    Jonathan Martin
    @jmart
    ·
    6h
    Maybe most striking is the sense that GA or NC could be in reach. Was hard to find Dems two weeks ago who truly thought either was likely

    https://x.com/jmart/status/1853426079966400539
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    kle4 said:

    I will stand on a manifesto of doing 'something' about all problems and leave it at that.

    I'll win in a landslide.
    If only more politicians had the courage to stand on a platform of “things are mostly better than they ever have been, I won’t change very much”.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    Pulpstar said:

    Alaska's in trouble for Trump if that poll is accurate.
    LOL.
    Though I did put a cheeky £1 on Alaska, because you never know.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    edited November 2024

    Philly DA: "If you think it is time to fuck around with election..."

    We have the prison cells waiting

    https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1853499585332736428

    Oh please, Trump's never seen the inside of a cell and probably never will even if he loses again (with appeals and whatnot), so who is going in these cells?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    kle4 said:

    Interesting to see how John Oliver has urged people to vote Harris, as I've not watched him for awhile. He really seemed to hate Biden and so his 2020 urge was very 'we don't have any other option to beat, Trump, unfortunately'. I assumed he'd be happier with Harris then, but the video I've seen shared shows him just as reluctant and unhappy about having no other choice to beat Trump than her. It was shared as a 'brilliant take' on why he's voting Harris, but if there's very progressive people still wrestling that hard with the idea I find it far from encouraging.
    https://nitter.poast.org/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1853308493060518391#m

    My wife, who voted for Obama in Missouri in 2008, is very cynical about Biden and Harris, and doesn't particularly see a Harris victory as a good thing.

    I've been a big critic of lesser-evilism for many years, and there's a lot of things that the Democrats have done, or refused to do, that would make someone regard the Democrats as simply not good enough. My opinion of Trump is sufficiently negative that I think such views are reckless, but I do understand them.

    In many ways the Democrats and Republicans operate a cartel, locking out any other political party, so a one-party state might not superficially seem that different compared to the status quo.
  • True.

    1, 2, skip a few, 99, 100
    Meanwhile the elect are struggling to understand simple algebraic propositions like Sonoma + 1 = Sequoia.
  • Trump's slurring speech tonight is very pronounced.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192

    Interesting article in the Telegraph about errors in the 2020 US census, which benefited the Democrats:

    "Feed these over- and undercounts through the system used to apportion electoral college votes, and analysis from the Heritage Foundation suggests that the results look something like this: Colorado was given one elector more than it should have received, Florida received two too few, Texas one too few, while Minnesota and Rhode Island each cling on to a vote they should have lost.

    Had the Census found just 26 fewer people in Minnesota, then the state would have missed out on an elector; it’s now believed that the population was overcounted by about 217,000. Similarly, Florida and Texas needed about 172,000 and 189,000 more residents respectively to each get an additional vote; they were undercounted by approximately 761,000 and 560,000 respectively.

    With polling for the election on a knife-edge, it’s not hard to draw out a scenario where this is enough to sway the overall result. Texas and Florida are expected to vote Republican; Minnesota, Colorado and Rhode Island Democrat, depriving Trump of three electoral college votes while handing three to Harris."

    Not sure the Heritage Foundation is an entirely unbiased actor.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Obligatory health warning, but this is interesting:

    https://x.com/vickiefornyc/status/1853511569851982213

    Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.

    Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.

    Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.

    The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.

    The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.

    Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.

    Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.

    LOL. Says Vickie Paladino, MAGA Republican and frequent Fox News guest, who will tell you how the Dems are doing on the doorstep with no spin whatsoever
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,128
    edited November 2024
    All the evidence is Americans hate being told how to vote by foreigners, so it's a mystery why they continue to do it. Big egos maybe.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,456
    @rcs1000 says that nobody know anything, but that doesn’t include baby hippos. Moo Deng has predicted a Trump victory:

    https://x.com/nypost/status/1853502751646330896
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031
    ToryJim said:

    That’s insane. If NH is moving that much then surely other states might be in play that have floated totally under the radar?
    @dyedwoolie has called New Hampshire for Trump
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    Trump's slurring speech tonight is very pronounced.

    From too much BS to too much B and S?

  • Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    16m
    Kamala Harris is holding a rally in Pennsylvania at the same time as Trump and she's radiating a lot of confidence

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853548330418053394
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612
    Sean_F said:

    I don’t believe anywhere close to 5% of Republicans will vote Harris.

    Why would they? Trump may be The Golgothan, but he still delivers the things that they believe in.

    Harris detests everything they believe in.
    Biden got 6% of Republican vote in 2020. 5% is a very reasonable assumption.
    Some dems will go republican too though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    .
    kle4 said:

    Oh please, Trump's never seen the inside of a cell and probably never will even if he loses again (with appeals and whatnot), so who is going in these cells?
    Several hundred of the Jan 6ers, last time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031
    edited November 2024
    Sean_F said:

    I don’t believe anywhere close to 5% of Republicans will vote Harris.

    Why would they? Trump may be The Golgothan, but he still delivers the things that they believe in.

    Harris detests everything they believe in.
    IIRC, the polling shows that about 3% of registered Democrats are voting Trump, and about 5% of registered Republicans are going for Harris. As there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, it is almost - but not quite - a wash.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    16m
    Kamala Harris is holding a rally in Pennsylvania at the same time as Trump and she's radiating a lot of confidence

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853548330418053394

    Political leaders had better be good at radiating confidence or they are in the wrong job!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,128
    Pulpstar said:

    OK Here's my spreadsheet for election night:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j3dyzsiucbbcCLH2jg3KtpcHTRkbgXoelDQ4ziysqsA/edit?usp=sharing

    I have tried to put a code in such that if I tick a box for Harris (Or Trump) then the other boxes are unchecked but it doesn't seem to be working.

    Thanks Pulpstar.
  • Sean_F said:

    I don’t believe anywhere close to 5% of Republicans will vote Harris.

    Why would they? Trump may be The Golgothan, but he still delivers the things that they believe in.

    Harris detests everything they believe in.
    There are still considerable number of voters in various places (Appalachia, other parts of the South, rust-belt counties) who are (still) registered Democrats but are also regular Republican voters esp. federally but increasing also state & local).

    ON THE FLIP SIDE there are also numbers of registered Republcans, in other areas, including most certainly in Pennsylvania, who have become disenchanted with GOP candidates, issue & etc., etc. For example, in suburban Philadelphia & Pittsburgh, but also in rural areas where locals have (and still mostly are) voting Republican since the (old) Party of Lincoln was led by Abe himself.

    So 5% of reg PA GOPers > Harris/Walz does NOT seem (to me) to be beyond the bounds of plausibility.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278

    @rcs1000 says that nobody know anything, but that doesn’t include baby hippos. Moo Deng has predicted a Trump victory:

    https://x.com/nypost/status/1853502751646330896

    Demons of the riverbanks, don't trust 'em.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Andy_JS said:

    All the evidence is Americans hate being told how to vote by foreigners, so it's a mystery why they continue to do it. Big egos maybe.

    Presumably, it's Farage you have in mind?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,457


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    16m
    Kamala Harris is holding a rally in Pennsylvania at the same time as Trump and she's radiating a lot of confidence

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853548330418053394

    They were setting up in front of the 'Rocky steps' earlier
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867

    My wife, who voted for Obama in Missouri in 2008, is very cynical about Biden and Harris, and doesn't particularly see a Harris victory as a good thing.

    I've been a big critic of lesser-evilism for many years, and there's a lot of things that the Democrats have done, or refused to do, that would make someone regard the Democrats as simply not good enough. My opinion of Trump is sufficiently negative that I think such views are reckless, but I do understand them.

    In many ways the Democrats and Republicans operate a cartel, locking out any other political party, so a one-party state might not superficially seem that different compared to the status quo.
    It’s the electoral system that does that.
    Like here too.
  • My wife, who voted for Obama in Missouri in 2008, is very cynical about Biden and Harris, and doesn't particularly see a Harris victory as a good thing.

    I've been a big critic of lesser-evilism for many years, and there's a lot of things that the Democrats have done, or refused to do, that would make someone regard the Democrats as simply not good enough. My opinion of Trump is sufficiently negative that I think such views are reckless, but I do understand them.

    In many ways the Democrats and Republicans operate a cartel, locking out any other political party, so a one-party state might not superficially seem that different compared to the status quo.
    I had a look at the Libertarians and Greens the other day. Neither looks like they want to compromise with the electorate at all.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031
    MikeL said:

    New Hampshire Dartmouth poll could of course be wrong - but even at very outer limits it implies move to Harris and it also gives a bit more credence to Iowa Selzer and the Kansas poll.

    It gives credence to the idea that Harris outperforming in very white States, suggesting that Wisconsin might be safer for her than the odds suggest.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,298

    In 2020 I was up all night, with a takeaway delivered at 1am. Good News - have just found a local* takeaway that will deliver at 1am. So maybe that's the plan. Fuel. Then the beautiful combination of caffeine and cake on Wednesday until I crash to bed early.

    Work doesn't look too bad Wednesday. And then Thursday I start delivering my "its polling day" leaflet at 7am.

    *local. Fraserburgh! 11 miles.

    If you are ever going to stay up all night to follow the results of an election then this has to be the one. I honestly believe that is the most important election of my lifetime. America, and thus the West, is at a crossroads. If Trump is re-elected I believe we will be on a very different path than if Harris wins.
    kle4 said:

    Political leaders had better be good at radiating confidence or they are in the wrong job!
    I'm pretty sure Hilary Clinton was radiating like the bloomin' Sun itself back in 2016. It didn't help.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031

    FYI, from the Hill yesterday:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2024/11/03/the_two_decisions_that_crushed_harris_campaign_634841.html

    Note the line:

    "Not a single Democrat I speak with believes that Vice President Kamala Harris will win on Tuesday."

    One of the points I have made for a while now and which has never really been discussed, is that there are a lot of high profile Democrat names - Shapiro, Whitmer, Newsom et al - who have a lot to lose from a Harris win as it would mean they effectively couldn't stand for a Presidential run in 2028. However, if Harris is defeated, not only does that obstacle go away but they can effectively start their campaigns from next week/
    Sure, but that's true of every ambitious politician of every party each electoral cycle.
  • kle4 said:

    Political leaders had better be good at radiating confidence or they are in the wrong job!
    We're getting close enough to the election that normies start to obsess about it the same way that we do all the time and the market supplies a flood of shit-that-doesn't-mean-anything for them to consume.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    Jon Ralston.

    I see this tweet is getting decent engagement. As you all know, I turned off mentions long ago. But I am sure it is all love…
    https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1853535375526092831
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Several hundred of the Jan 6ers, last time.
    It's always the footsoldiers who get it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,945

    And Vance has just visited I think?? :lol:
    Cause and effect
  • trukattrukat Posts: 47
    edited November 2024

    How reliable is Dartmouth as a pollster? - and what does that imply for the blue wall?
    deleted
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    rcs1000 said:

    @dyedwoolie has called New Hampshire for Trump
    Ah that’s right, I knew someone had
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,331

    There are still considerable number of voters in various places (Appalachia, other parts of the South, rust-belt counties) who are (still) registered Democrats but are also regular Republican voters esp. federally but increasing also state & local).

    ON THE FLIP SIDE there are also numbers of registered Republcans, in other areas, including most certainly in Pennsylvania, who have become disenchanted with GOP candidates, issue & etc., etc. For example, in suburban Philadelphia & Pittsburgh, but also in rural areas where locals have (and still mostly are) voting Republican since the (old) Party of Lincoln was led by Abe himself.

    So 5% of reg PA GOPers > Harris/Walz does NOT seem (to me) to be beyond the bounds of plausibility.
    Yes, but it’s not a *net* figure.

    If I understand @Barnesian right, it’s one way traffic.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003
    Pulpstar said:

    OK Here's my spreadsheet for election night:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j3dyzsiucbbcCLH2jg3KtpcHTRkbgXoelDQ4ziysqsA/edit?usp=sharing

    I have tried to put a code in such that if I tick a box for Harris (Or Trump) then the other boxes are unchecked but it doesn't seem to be working.

    Very good. Many thanks. I'll have that open tomorrow night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    edited November 2024

    We're getting close enough to the election that normies start to obsess about it the same way that we do all the time and the market supplies a flood of shit-that-doesn't-mean-anything for them to consume.
    Pah, election normies are the worst. Do they even regularly talk about swingback? I don't even want to know.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    rcs1000 said:

    Sure, but that's true of every ambitious politician of every party each electoral cycle.
    Not a single … implies one of two things: the person has an agenda, or doesn’t really talk to a lot of people.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited November 2024
    TimT said:

    Despite their normal political bias, Fox’s election night coverage rivals that of CNN. I’d recommend watching either or both, choose a site like NY Times to get details number results, and have the conversation here on PB
    Would agree with FOX ENight, have zero clue re: CNN because don't have cable and they don't broadcast.

    When it comes to election-night broadcasts, miss the days of my misspent youth, when we'd flip the dial between CBS (Walter Chronkite), NBC (Huntley/Brinkley then John Chancellor) and ABC (Harry Reasoner/Howard K. Smith.

    Here's a sample featuring Uncle Walter from ENight 1968; begins with start of national broadcast with 2% of votes reporting:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aS8b0u84bK0&list=PL3Cgj4wX8fdXsbNgyejR1dyi_HNXxjibc
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,457
    I don't know if it's the makeup. or the lighting, or the camera, but he looks like shit

    https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1853554254507868462

    literally
  • Andy_JS said:

    Thanks Pulpstar.
    Yes great work, many thanks!
  • Keir Starmer wants to restore pre-Brexit security arrangements with the EU to allow Britain to take charge of cross-border criminal operations in Europe:

    https://x.com/matt_dathan/status/1853536476312842525

    Good.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    All Radiohead albums are difficult.
    ...to stop listening to.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,757
    Andy_JS said:

    All the evidence is Americans hate being told how to vote by foreigners, so it's a mystery why they continue to do it. Big egos maybe.

    Russians or Britons?

    We will find out soon enough.
  • kle4 said:

    Pah, election normies are the worst. Do they even regularly talk about swingback? I don't even want to know.
    How's about robust discussion of Portland OR first-ever RCV election for mayor and (new) city council?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    Foxy said:

    Russians or Britons?

    We will find out soon enough.
    Or indeed South Africans...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278

    How's about robust discussion of Portland OR first-ever RCV election for mayor and (new) city council?
    I love places updating their voting systems!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,457
    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: Elon Musk’s $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes can proceed, a Pennsylvania judge has said
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: Elon Musk’s $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes can proceed, a Pennsylvania judge has said

    I'm curious what isn't acceptable?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,927
    Andy_JS said:

    Turnout went up by 22 million between 2016 and 2020 from 136 to 158 million. Is it unlikely that sort of increase will happen again?

    I would say not. Trump is so incredibly polarising that it drives both sides to exceptional turnouts. I may have found the single way in which he is good for democracy. Gosh.
  • Sean_F said:

    Yes, but it’s not a *net* figure.

    If I understand @Barnesian right, it’s one way traffic.
    Whether or not you understand B, I sure am not understanding you, or at least think not.

    IF (hypothetically) 5% of registered Republicans in the great Keystone State vote for Harris, then (hypothetically) 5% (or whatever) of reg Dems might be voting for Trump.

    Either and/or (esp) both a big deal.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    All Radiohead albums are difficult.
    ...to stop listening to.

    Someone was on here tipping NH for Trump the other day (can’t remember who). That poll is a massive outlier surely?
    Yes. I count three recent massive outlier polls in Harris's favour in recent days. Iowa, Kansas, New Hampshire.

    How many outliers make a trend?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kle4 said:

    Pah, election normies are the worst. Do they even regularly talk about swingback? I don't even want to know.
    Imagine having Normies involved in a Guess Boris’ Weight competition. That would be an embarrassing spectacle. One shudders at the thought.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    A potential "first" that somehow isn't mentioned:

    —GOP has had two prez from California, Nixon + Reagan

    —Its first-ever prez nominee was from Calif, Fremont

    —But America's most populous (and best) state has never had a Dem nominee for prez. Until now. We'll see tomorrow.

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1853554769752637607

    Harris is the first Dem nominee from anywhere west of Johnson City, Texas
    https://x.com/InnoventionsB/status/1853556116724314260

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031
    Personal view:

    Dartmouth and Seltzer are overcounting Democrats, because they aren't using past vote weighting and are struggling to reach certain kinds of voter. NYTimes/Siena has a similar issue, but has attempted to correct for it.

    On the other hand, most other pollsters have shifted to past vote weighting. Given how unpopular Biden is, this means fewer people will have reported actually voting for him than did. This - and this is Nate Cohn's view - could lead to Democrat voters being undercounted.
  • Does anyone else on here think this is the most important election of their lifetime?
  • Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: Elon Musk’s $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes can proceed, a Pennsylvania judge has said

    The judge could have waited a day.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278

    Does anyone else on here think this is the most important election of their lifetime?

    Yes. Who the US President is matters a lot, and having one who doesn't accept losing has a toxic effect on the most powerful country in the world.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,457

    Does anyone else on here think this is the most important election of their lifetime?

    Only if he wins
  • Does anyone else on here think this is the most important election of their lifetime?

    not really
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031

    Harris to win Wisconsin by more than 4% at 5/1 with Skybet is VALUE imho

    If only Skybet hadn't closed my account.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Sean_F said:

    I don’t believe anywhere close to 5% of Republicans will vote Harris.

    Why would they? Trump may be The Golgothan, but he still delivers the things that they believe in.

    Harris detests everything they believe in.
    You don’t really believe that do you?

    For one thing as a party leader, Trump is a loser. He is not popular in America - his leadership has got the the Republicans stuck below a low glass ceiling that’s got Trump written on it. This change election will be a bonus win for the Dems - the only country in the world who didn’t vote out its government after cost of living crisis, and it’s solely down to how poorly Trump has campaigned in recent weeks - boorish, off message, and making threat to democracy a voter concern. He has dropped the ball on the economy in recent weeks.

    Secondly, when he won, it’s such a shambolic administration it doesn’t deliver. What are you pointing to as great delivery last time? Managing legal and illegal immigration? Nope. Managing Covid? Nope? Afghanistan? Nope. Managing the economy? Nope. Dodgy judges, tax cuts for the rich, and over turning roe v Wade? Yes to that legacy. You are telling us every single one of the GOP tribes wanted the overturning of Roe v Wade, and some of the restrictive abortion laws now out there?

    Times up for Trump. It’s not the dems beating him as we speak - it’s the party he stole taking ownership and control of their future back. They are out there now, snorkelling.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,927

    Does anyone else on here think this is the most important election of their lifetime?

    Yes. More parochially 2010 was a very important result for the UK. But in world terms I can't think of anything close.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031
    26 hours until the first polls close in the US.
  • kle4 said:

    I'm curious what isn't acceptable?
    Something the Democrats do?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,005
    Sean_F said:

    I don’t believe anywhere close to 5% of Republicans will vote Harris.

    Why would they? Trump may be The Golgothan, but he still delivers the things that they believe in.

    Harris detests everything they believe in.
    Don't know if it'll be 5%, that or higher but counteracted by Dem switchers. But it's fairly well established that there's a certain type of old school Republican - particularly women - who'd vote GOP in most circumstances but loathe and fear Trump 2. In a way they didn't Trump 1 because then they thought he could be controlled and things like removing Roe v Wade and Jan 6th were scaremongering. They may not be keen on Harris either, but she has been quite clever in offering them a seat at the table. Whether that is enough I'll guess we'll see.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,311

    Does anyone else on here think this is the most important election of their lifetime?

    Some of those hereditary peer by-elections are surely contenders.
  • not really
    What would you say was?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,945

    Obligatory health warning, but this is interesting:

    https://x.com/vickiefornyc/status/1853511569851982213

    Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.

    Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.

    Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.

    The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.

    The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.

    Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.

    Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.

    Guys, I love you all to bits but this sounds plausible and matches Nevada. Can somebody provide rebuttal that doesn't revolve around her characteristics?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    I'd like to see a breakdown for England, Wales, and NI.

    https://nitter.poast.org/PolitlcsUK/status/1853497154674868435#m
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited November 2024

    What would you say was?
    errrm - brexit probably . Trump is not exactly an unknown quantity - His first term was actually pretty steady for the world (as a non american I dont really care about internal US stuff) only world stuff- If anything he may be more stable for the world given he did not enter any wars in his first term (very unusual for a US president)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031
    viewcode said:

    Guys, I love you all to bits but this sounds plausible and matches Nevada. Can somebody provide rebuttal that doesn't revolve around her characteristics?
    Why does it need rebuttal?

    It's from a Republican Congresswoman. Is it likely that she has a Democrat consultant friend who told her that it was OK for her to share the view that Democrats think they're doomed?

    Remember: nobody knows anything.
  • errrm - brexit probably
    That was a referendum not an election...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440

    She doesn’t even sign her own autographs?
    I assumed it was a typo of singing.

    Ha, no. Signing for the deaf.

    I suppose you could go to experience the atmosphere whilst not being able to hear anything, but it does seem a little odd.

    Maybe not as odd as actually wanting to listen, though.
    Well quite. Sounds like a positive boon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,128
    Google's automatic AI information is making mistakes.

    I typed "Maryland 2016 population". It answered: "The population of Maryland in 2016 was 616,958 in the city of Baltimore."

    That figure certainly isn't the population of Maryland in 2016, and looks more like the figure for Baltimore itself.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003
    trukat said:
    62% say Harris and 33% say Trump

    But only 30% consider themselves to be a Democrat, 31% a Republican and 39% Other. So Other break massively for Democrat.

    In my analysis I was assuming that only 55% of Other break for Democrat.

    I've got a feeling ...
  • Trump has his crowd behind him holding 'Women for Trump' signs.

    He's rattled.
  • DavidL said:

    I would say not. Trump is so incredibly polarising that it drives both sides to exceptional turnouts. I may have found the single way in which he is good for democracy. Gosh.
    Re: "exceptional turnout" well, we shall see.

    Note that negative campaigning is more likely, in USA anyway, to DEPRESS turnout esp. among infrequent voters. It's more effective (when it works) at persuading folks who are frequent voters or have already decided to vote, including for reasons having little to do with POTUS race - say on ballot measure(s).

    Like I keep saying, Trump and his fellow MAGA-maggots are trying to boost turnout among some groups (such as young male fellow thugs) while supressing it among others (such sensitive/disgusted women young & old).
  • That was a referendum not an election...
    The 2019 election was effectively the brexit election
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    edited November 2024
    viewcode said:

    Guys, I love you all to bits but this sounds plausible and matches Nevada. Can somebody provide rebuttal that doesn't revolve around her characteristics?
    That it seems to suggest the Democrats have no chance, and know it, in every swing state (merely 'hoping' they win Michigan).

    The possibility of one side or the other sweeping all the swing states has been raised as possible, but the idea that it is a well know fact among Democrat consultants such that no one genuinely thinks they can win any of them does not strike me as very plausible. Even if it happens I don't buy that 'nobody' thinks they might win even a single one.

    I discount nothing, but the presented story is not very plausible in itself - notably I responded with no knowledge of who the person was and judged it on its own merits, accepting the possibility it was right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    rcs1000 said:

    26 hours until the first polls close in the US.

    They close at 2mins past the hour ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    Google's automatic AI information is making mistakes.

    I typed "Maryland 2016 population". It answered: "The population of Maryland in 2016 was 616,958 in the city of Baltimore."

    That figure certainly isn't the population of Maryland in 2016, and looks more like the figure for Baltimore itself.

    The difference with you and the AI true believers is that you are capable of using your own judgement as a check and balance on the drivel it chucks out daily.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,225
    The better Secretary of State sites can be fun to look at when they are counting the votes. (In 2004, I called Ohio for Bush with that data before any of the networks did. I saw that there were still many votes to be counted from the exurbs, where he was strong.)
  • Why in the country that invented drive-in fastfood do you still have to queue for hours to vote??

    Bizarro.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,457

    Trump has his crowd behind him holding 'Women for Trump' signs.

    He's rattled.

    zoom in on every single person in the background earlier

    https://x.com/RobDenBleyker/status/1853484519254376931
  • Nigelb said:

    They close at 2mins past the hour ?
    25 hours I think? Don't part of Indiana & Kentucky close at 6pm local 11pm UK?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
This discussion has been closed.