Sorry to go off-topic, but I enjoyed the discussion about hyper-luxury, on the previous thread.
I *loved* my Naples junior suite @£240 a night. It’s a converted monastery, filled with art works and antiques. If I stayed somewhere that was £2,400 a night, it might well be better, but would it be 10X better?
But, perhaps it’s a case of don’t knock it till you’ve tried it? And as @TOPPING says, £240 a night would be unimaginable extravagance to 80% of the world’s people.
Perhaps my own favorite lodging, was a private room at a youth hostel in Paris, not far from Place de Republic.
Forget the price, but reasonable certainly describes it (maybe 30 euros?) Had to walk up four fights, but got a great view of Sacre Coeur. AND as it was February I could use the mini-balcony as a mini-fridge.
Je ne pouvais pas le battre avec un bâton!
I had three nights at a glorified guest house in Hope Cove, followed by three at the Harbour Hotel in Salcombe.
The food at the former was way better than the latter.
My best stays in recent years have pretty much all been in pubs. You can’t beat a good rural village gastropub with rooms for ambiance and coziness. I saw the weird love-in for Premier Inns on the PT. They are soulless and shit. The beds are usually okay but it’s hard to praise anywhere where the only sensible aim is to minimise one’s time there. Fine if they are in the centre of cities like Nottingham and Manchester that have good nightlife and food scenes. Otherwise, avoid.
Once stayed at a great gastro-pub just outside of Hebden Bridge. Knew as soon as I walked through the front door it was place for me, because of the wonderful smells coming from the kitchen!
Room was basic (no TV for example) but quite nice, for example could see deer from my window in the morning. And night before, spent pleasant evening at the bar (not generally my thing) chatting with oldtimer who spent most of his WWII service running a ENSA supper-club in Nairobi.
Next morning when I settled up, the landlord refused to charge me for the beer I'd drunk - admitted not much, but still above & beyond the call . . . esp. for a publican!
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Latest attempt did not work. Need to have both pages of open passport showing with no fingers in the way.
I'm going to lie on the floor with it on my chest.
Update: all that ID check was so that they could tell me they have closed my account. Nice one!
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
If you want to upset anyone who isnt a current Tory voter youre turning into HYUFD. It is not just silly but completely the wrong tone. Tories need to show some contrition before swing voters will give their anger a moments thought.
The party needs to take on labour and regain many of its former supporters
I do not expect any Labour supporters on here to turn to the conservatives but there are many swing voters to be attracted to a new Badenoch led conservative party
The kind of people you should be trying to attract are the likes of Nigelb and Stuartinromford, who are not fond of Labour at all, but even less fond of what the Tories have become. Along with younger voters than you will find on pb.
The hyperbolic and ridiculous criticism turns both groups off, and won't work with Reform voters either.
Contrition first, come up with a plan next and build slowly would be the right strategy.
I am perfectly content to leave it to Kemi and her team
So am I, but this is political discussion forum so you may come across political commentary.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
If you want to upset anyone who isnt a current Tory voter youre turning into HYUFD. It is not just silly but completely the wrong tone. Tories need to show some contrition before swing voters will give their anger a moments thought.
Forget contrition and self flagellation for voters who would never vote Conservative in a million years ie the Cameron strategy in 2010 which ended up failing to win a majority anyway. When he started to actually focus on voters who might actually vote Conservative not Guardian readers he won a majority in 2015.
As for swing voters they are disgusted and appalled by this useless Starmer government and its betrayals, hence on the latest BMG poll the Tories are even already ahead of Labour just months from the election. That was even before Labour's further betrayal of students today to add to its betrayal of farmers, business owners and pensioners
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Latest attempt did not work. Need to have both pages of open passport showing with no fingers in the way.
I'm going to lie on the floor with it on my chest.
Update: all that ID check was so that they could tell me they have closed my account. Nice one!
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
You're right, but I have a great fondness for that bloke on the internet that you mention.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Latest attempt did not work. Need to have both pages of open passport showing with no fingers in the way.
I'm going to lie on the floor with it on my chest.
Do these fancy phone cameras not have a timer and/or a remote trigger?
Or does this have to be done in-app?
I had this problem with a government ID check which didn't work properly on my phone. Had to trail in to a Post Office and they couldn't get their version to work either...
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
I was expecting something more refined than that from him. It’s just hyperbole. No argument.
The country is broke. Someone at least is trying to fix it. Complaining about every change reminds me of the Labours early days in opposition around 2010.
Yes, taking of “the fallen” in this context, just before Armistice day, is a bit crass. You can do better, Mel.
Keep an eye on PB for some better attack lines. I might contribute a few myself.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
The budget adds to borrowing and adds to borrowing costs. It’s a sleight of hand that tries to get the government credit for spending increases, while pinning the blame on businesses for wage freezes and cuts in investment.
Also the attack lines just don't work: you can only play the "black hole" line to the extent the tax rises are necessary to fill it, but it's clear the tax rises go way beyond that and they'd planned to spend that much in any event.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
You and pearl clutching
Nobody clutches more pearls than you when Starmer and his government comes under criticism, or even worse when cash is discussed
You are certainly one of the best pearl clutches on here, if you want to use that childish expression
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
The interesting and challenging question for us Brits is why do we care so much about this election.
The reason is that we’re vulnerable to the result. Perhaps more vulnerable than we an actually need to be.
We do seem to bet the house on a good outcome.
Ukraine and tariffs make it a big deal for us. If they were not in play, I would not be following it all as closely as I have been.
100% agree. Back when we used to live in precedented times I cared not one jot about the outcome of the U.S. election. Although I used to find it interesting in an abstract way.
Yes whether Clinton or Dole, or Bush or Dukakis or even Obama or Romney won really didn't make much difference to us, just a bit to US domestic policy.
Trump v Harris is different as it will have huge differences to the rest of the world too, from tariffs, to NATO, to containing Putin and supporting Ukraine to the Middle East and climate change etc
Would you still be inclined to vote Trump rather than Harris if you had a vote HY?
I said I would reluctantly vote Harris but GOP for Congress. If Haley was GOP nominee I would have voted for her
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
You and pearl clutching
Nobody clutches more pearls than you when Starmer and his government comes under criticism, or even worse when cash is discussed
You are certainly one of the best pearl clutches on here, if you want to use that childish expression
I don’t think you know what pearl clutching means!
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
If the Tories were smart they’d go all in now on young people especially students.
For at least the last two decades - including under the last Labour government, things have been getting worse and worse for young people.
Lack of affordable housing, inability to get on the property ladder, lack of jobs, lack of careers, lack of hope.
Labour by keeping the triple lock but whacking up employer's NI (hitting young people in the service industry the hardest) and tuition fees, have proven they're more of the same.
There is a real space for a centre right party that gets back to the basics of promising young working people if they work hard, save, get on in life and their careers, they will be able to afford a roof over their heads and to start a family, if that's what they want.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
If the Tories were smart they’d go all in now on young people especially students.
Students will be going Green after today, if the Tories won students they would be heading for a bigger landslide than Thatcher's in 1983 so it wouldn't matter anyway
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
You and pearl clutching
Nobody clutches more pearls than you when Starmer and his government comes under criticism, or even worse when cash is discussed
You are certainly one of the best pearl clutches on here, if you want to use that childish expression
I don’t think you know what pearl clutching means!
If the Tories were smart they’d go all in now on young people especially students.
For at least the last two decades - including under the last Labour government, things have been getting worse and worse for young people.
Lack of affordable housing, inability to get on the property ladder, lack of jobs, lack of careers, lack of hope.
Labour by keeping the triple lock but whacking up employer's NI (hitting young people in the service industry the hardest) and tuition fees, have proven they're more of the same.
There is a real space for a centre right party that gets back to the basics of promising young working people if they work hard, save, get on in life and their careers, they will be able to afford a roof over their heads and to start a family, if that's what they want.
If they did this and something on housing/planning they’d do well.
But it would also mean abandoning the culture wars and the obsession with trans people. That puts people off as they’d just like the Tories to leave them alone.
If the Tories were smart they’d go all in now on young people especially students.
Students will be going Green after today, if the Tories won students they would be heading for a bigger landslide than Thatcher's in 1983 so it wouldn't matter anyway
They won’t be going Green. You know nothing.
They will be going to won’t vote.
Trust me, if your lot offered something they’d hoover up the next generation.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
And just checking - they did not allocate the rest to "result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers ". I can't find a breakdown or detail anywhere.
I would guess Labour tried that wheeze on the basis that a lot of spending commitments made since July would have inevitably been made by Sunak had he stayed on.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
why do you persist in repeating such drivel
Labour made a choice: their choice was to raise taxes significantly to raise public sector pay, expand the size of the public sector, put more into the NHS and Education, and borrow a fair bit for capital investment, a good chunk of which is for CCUS. They are taxing business and the private sector significantly to pay for it and removing a lot of tax exemptions.
Now, you can agree with - and even admire - those choices, but they're over and above what would have been needed to close the literal fiscal hole and will come at the expense of lower growth in years to come as that tax and expansion crowds out private sector investment, and increases inflation.
That was a choice, and at odds with the platform they ran on to prioritise growth.
If the Tories were smart they’d go all in now on young people especially students.
For at least the last two decades - including under the last Labour government, things have been getting worse and worse for young people.
Lack of affordable housing, inability to get on the property ladder, lack of jobs, lack of careers, lack of hope.
Labour by keeping the triple lock but whacking up employer's NI (hitting young people in the service industry the hardest) and tuition fees, have proven they're more of the same.
There is a real space for a centre right party that gets back to the basics of promising young working people if they work hard, save, get on in life and their careers, they will be able to afford a roof over their heads and to start a family, if that's what they want.
If they did this and something on housing/planning they’d do well.
But it would also mean abandoning the culture wars and the obsession with trans people. That puts people off as they’d just like the Tories to leave them alone.
I rarely comment on trans but I do understand it is distressing for those affected and we should live and let live
I’ve followed Ralston through several cycles and he likes to build the suspense a bit.
There are good reasons why his model behaved rather shonkily this year, the nature and scale of unaffiliated voters was different, and probably skews more D than Jon R has been admitting. He’s not really admitted that till now. But now he has and he’s tipped it to Harris. I think she’ll beat his margin.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
And just checking - they did not allocate the rest to "result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers ". I can't find a breakdown or detail anywhere.
I would guess Labour tried that wheeze on the basis that a lot of spending commitments made since July would have inevitably been made by Sunak had he stayed on.
And anyway 40 billion rise in taxes when Reeves denied any tax rises other than those announced just a few weeks before the election was inexcusable and a lie
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
You keep saying this, but I’ll believe it when I see it in votes, not polls.
Every single election, the GOP claim their share of the black vote is increasing but it stays resolutely low.
If Ralston's explanation is correct, then there is going to be a lot of trouble in the States post-election.
HIs central thesis is that a lot of the independents are closet Democrats who have been registered by pro-Democrat organisations, and it will be those voters who will get Harris over the line in NV because the party machine will know who they are and what they need to do.
Unfortunately, it doesn't take a genius to work out how the Republicans - who have been claiming that illegal immigrants have been moved into swing states and registered as voters - will claim Harris has got in off the back of illegal immigrants voting.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
That is what I said about the 9 billion
No - there is an important difference. If you disclose an "unbudgeted" £9 billion, the OBR can include it in their assessment of the sustainability of the public finances.
That is the whole point of the OBR. Concealing information, or not asking for their assessment at all (like Truss) undermines confidence and can lead to the kind of disaster we saw in 2022.
What would you think if Reeves had concealed £9 billion of upcoming spending this time round?
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
That is what I said about the 9 billion
No - there is an important difference. If you disclose an "unbudgeted" £9 billion, the OBR can include it in their assessment of the sustainability of the public finances.
That is the whole point of the OBR. Concealing information, or not asking for their assessment at all (like Truss) undermines confidence and can lead to the kind of disaster we saw in 2022.
What would you think if Reeves had concealed £9 billion of upcoming spending this time round?
She concealed 40 billion of tax rises and huge increase in borrowing !!!!!!
If you want some distraction from the US election, RTÉ have published a podcast series on all 43 constituencies for the next election to the Dail - expected to take place on Friday 29th November.
It's a wonderful insight into the extremely local nature of a lot of Irish politics, the rivalries between and within parties, and the nuts and bolts of an STV election.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
29 hours (and 5 minutes) surely from when you wrote that?
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
You keep saying this, but I’ll believe it when I see it in votes, not polls.
Every single election, the GOP claim their share of the black vote is increasing but it stays resolutely low.
In 2020 Trump won the highest share of the black vote of any GOP candidate for president since Reagan in 1980, making gains especially with black men he has expanded on this year.
However Biden won the highest share of the white vote for any Democratic candidate since Obama in 2008 too, making gains especially with white women Harris has further expanded on
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
That is what I said about the 9 billion
No - there is an important difference. If you disclose an "unbudgeted" £9 billion, the OBR can include it in their assessment of the sustainability of the public finances.
That is the whole point of the OBR. Concealing information, or not asking for their assessment at all (like Truss) undermines confidence and can lead to the kind of disaster we saw in 2022.
What would you think if Reeves had concealed £9 billion of upcoming spending this time round?
She concealed 40 billion of tax rises and huge increase in borrowing !!!!!!
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
Yes. That run on the pound hasn't happened yet. Maybe the next budget?
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Latest attempt did not work. Need to have both pages of open passport showing with no fingers in the way.
I'm going to lie on the floor with it on my chest.
If Ralston's explanation is correct, then there is going to be a lot of trouble in the States post-election.
HIs central thesis is that a lot of the independents are closet Democrats who have been registered by pro-Democrat organisations, and it will be those voters who will get Harris over the line in NV because the party machine will know who they are and what they need to do.
Unfortunately, it doesn't take a genius to work out how the Republicans - who have been claiming that illegal immigrants have been moved into swing states and registered as voters - will claim Harris has got in off the back of illegal immigrants voting.
Jesus, what a mess.
I think Ralston is wrong in NV, for exactly the same reason that I think Georgia looks Democratic: male - female split.
In Nevada, male early voters outnumber female ones. Unless that switches on election day, I don't see how Harris wins it. You need to see at least 51% (and probably more like 52%) for her to be in with a shot in NV.
(And this is nothing to do with abortion, this is simply that - almost irrespective of country - women are more communitarian than men, and therefore vote to the left of them.)
My suggestion for the conservatives is the following:
Lay before Parliament interim planning orders allowing councils to grant themselves planning permission for temporary planning permission of up to 3 years for temporary prefabricated housing on open land, ie parks, playing fields, with only very limited rules, IE no risk from flooding, due to the 'housing emergency', ie 1 in 50 people in London being housed in temporary housing, and council's going bankrupt under these costs, many of them labour councils.
This will drive the labour party crazy because the civil service/blob will tell them its not possible and the bureaucracy has to prevail but it will take another year until we can analyse the consultation responses to the last consultation and consult again on the detailed measures that require further scrutiny by the committee before the affirmative resolution instrument can be laid before parliament and actually it could all be more effectively resolved through a 'presumption' in 'new guidance' that will streamline the existing system instead, but actually we need impact assessments of the fire risk assessments and the newts and the derogations from the habitats regulations must be fully considered etc etc....
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Technically, it doesn't really matter ine way or another what Labour supporters think. What matters is what maybe-Conservatives think. FWIW, I don't disagree with Stride's gloom.
The words are powerful. He's not an amazing speaker and didn't quite do them justice, but that is the spirit.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
You need to be online between 12am and 1am when FL and GA results start hitting the tapes.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
29 hours (and 5 minutes) surely from when you wrote that?
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I’m planning on the first combined with an early night, I should be fine to work the next day.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
Yes. That run on the pound hasn't happened yet. Maybe the next budget?
The PB Tories will certainly be breathlessly cheering it on, did you witness the unedifying spectacle over gilts yields? Embarrassing.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I always go full daft with UK elections. Dawn or bust.
In this one I think I want to know how big a set of covers I need to hide under before retiring, but as it is likely to go on until January, it probably isn't worth a zombie day.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
Doesn't matter what you plan or what anyone thinks - you're inevitably going to stumble into option three along with the rest of us!
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
why do you persist in repeating such drivel
Labour made a choice: their choice was to raise taxes significantly to raise public sector pay, expand the size of the public sector, put more into the NHS and Education, and borrow a fair bit for capital investment, a good chunk of which is for CCUS. They are taxing business and the private sector significantly to pay for it and removing a lot of tax exemptions.
Now, you can agree with - and even admire - those choices, but they're over and above what would have been needed to close the literal fiscal hole and will come at the expense of lower growth in years to come as that tax and expansion crowds out private sector investment, and increases inflation.
That was a choice, and at odds with the platform they ran on to prioritise growth.
Fair assessment, imo.
What's scary is how little public spending went up, at least after the "sugar rush" over the next two years, despite those tax increases and increased borrowing.
Even more terrifying is that capital investment, as a share of spending, will actually be the same as it was in the last few years (Hunt planned to cut it significantly in the last budget).
I have this horrible feeling that we are going to go through at least 20 years of stagnation since the 2008 crash.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
You keep saying this, but I’ll believe it when I see it in votes, not polls.
Every single election, the GOP claim their share of the black vote is increasing but it stays resolutely low.
In 2020 Trump won the highest share of the black vote of any GOP candidate for president since Reagan in 1980, making gains especially with black men he has expanded on this year.
However Biden won the highest share of the white vote for any Democratic candidate since Obama in 2008 too, making gains especially with white women Harris has further expanded on
Whereas in Obama v Romney for example race was the biggest dividing line, this year in Harris v Trump the biggest dividing line is gender
If Ralston's explanation is correct, then there is going to be a lot of trouble in the States post-election.
HIs central thesis is that a lot of the independents are closet Democrats who have been registered by pro-Democrat organisations, and it will be those voters who will get Harris over the line in NV because the party machine will know who they are and what they need to do.
Unfortunately, it doesn't take a genius to work out how the Republicans - who have been claiming that illegal immigrants have been moved into swing states and registered as voters - will claim Harris has got in off the back of illegal immigrants voting.
Jesus, what a mess.
Your inflammatory patter expressed in faux polite syntax reminds me so much of a former poster called @MrEd. Are you him or an actual pollster?
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
29 hours (and 5 minutes) surely from when you wrote that?
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I’m having an early afternoon nap and will go for your middle option . There’s no way I could sleep and get up at 4am as I just couldn’t miss the early results . I think we’ll know in the early hours what’s going to happen .
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
You need to be online between 12am and 1am when FL and GA results start hitting the tapes.
early nap, up for midnight, another nap at 13:30 up at 4:30 off to work at 6:00....
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
The fans aren't paying except with their eyeballs - the suppliers give those things away as a marketing expense.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
29 hours (and 5 minutes) surely from when you wrote that?
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
Woah, @rcs1000, are you saying Georgia is going to drop the early votes at 11am GMT on Nov 5th?
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I always go full daft with UK elections. Dawn or bust.
In this one I think I want to know how big a set of covers I need to hide under before retiring, but as it is likely to go on until January, it probably isn't worth a zombie day.
I’ll be behind the sofa for reports from Pennsylvania…
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
You keep saying this, but I’ll believe it when I see it in votes, not polls.
Every single election, the GOP claim their share of the black vote is increasing but it stays resolutely low.
In 2020 Trump won the highest share of the black vote of any GOP candidate for president since Reagan in 1980, making gains especially with black men he has expanded on this year.
However Biden won the highest share of the white vote for any Democratic candidate since Obama in 2008 too, making gains especially with white women Harris has further expanded on
I know you love polls so here’s some recent analysis..
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
You need to be online between 12am and 1am when FL and GA results start hitting the tapes.
Thanks. Which websites and tv channels should we watch,? I would like to get everything planned as I have a lot riding on this and a young family.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
Woah, @rcs1000, are you saying Georgia is going to drop the early votes at 11am GMT on Nov 5th?
I CANT COUNT DAMNIT. I'M AN IDIOT.
It was 12pm here. In my head I though "5 hours to 5pm, and then another 10 hours to take it to the same time tomorrow."
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
why do you persist in repeating such drivel
Labour made a choice: their choice was to raise taxes significantly to raise public sector pay, expand the size of the public sector, put more into the NHS and Education, and borrow a fair bit for capital investment, a good chunk of which is for CCUS. They are taxing business and the private sector significantly to pay for it and removing a lot of tax exemptions.
Now, you can agree with - and even admire - those choices, but they're over and above what would have been needed to close the literal fiscal hole and will come at the expense of lower growth in years to come as that tax and expansion crowds out private sector investment, and increases inflation.
That was a choice, and at odds with the platform they ran on to prioritise growth.
Fair assessment, imo.
What's scary is how little public spending went up, at least after the "sugar rush" over the next two years, despite those tax increases and increased borrowing.
Even more terrifying is that capital investment, as a share of spending, will actually be the same as it was in the last few years (Hunt planned to cut it significantly in the last budget).
I have this horrible feeling that we are going to go through at least 20 years of stagnation since the 2008 crash.
But then! Then! After a mere 20 years! We shall all experience the glorious uplands so long promised!...
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I always go full daft with UK elections. Dawn or bust.
In this one I think I want to know how big a set of covers I need to hide under before retiring, but as it is likely to go on until January, it probably isn't worth a zombie day.
I’ll be behind the sofa for reports from Pennsylvania…
I haven't physically done that since Doctor Who's "Empty Child".
It will be an all-nighter for me. Got the morning off work.
Comments
Room was basic (no TV for example) but quite nice, for example could see deer from my window in the morning. And night before, spent pleasant evening at the bar (not generally my thing) chatting with oldtimer who spent most of his WWII service running a ENSA supper-club in Nairobi.
Next morning when I settled up, the landlord refused to charge me for the beer I'd drunk - admitted not much, but still above & beyond the call . . . esp. for a publican!
(It’s a squeaker.)
CLOWN, you’re predicting Kamala
I just unfollowed and will NEVER be taking you seriously again
https://x.com/JToscanoCA/status/1853524546546020597
As for swing voters they are disgusted and appalled by this useless Starmer government and its betrayals, hence on the latest BMG poll the Tories are even already ahead of Labour just months from the election. That was even before Labour's further betrayal of students today to add to its betrayal of farmers, business owners and pensioners
@RalstonReports
"It’s going to be very, very close. Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent."
https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1853524980459598007
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
Or does this have to be done in-app?
I had this problem with a government ID check which didn't work properly on my phone. Had to trail in to a Post Office and they couldn't get their version to work either...
Never again.
You and pearl clutching
Nobody clutches more pearls than you when Starmer and his government comes under criticism, or even worse when cash is discussed
You are certainly one of the best pearl clutches on here, if you want to use that childish expression
Ralston calls NV for Harris by 0.3pts.
Something on housing
Something on tuition fees
An end to the culture wars
Ending the triple lock
That will win a lot of voters.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
Lack of affordable housing, inability to get on the property ladder, lack of jobs, lack of careers, lack of hope.
Labour by keeping the triple lock but whacking up employer's NI (hitting young people in the service industry the hardest) and tuition fees, have proven they're more of the same.
There is a real space for a centre right party that gets back to the basics of promising young working people if they work hard, save, get on in life and their careers, they will be able to afford a roof over their heads and to start a family, if that's what they want.
But it would also mean abandoning the culture wars and the obsession with trans people. That puts people off as they’d just like the Tories to leave them alone.
They will be going to won’t vote.
Trust me, if your lot offered something they’d hoover up the next generation.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions
I would guess Labour tried that wheeze on the basis that a lot of spending commitments made since July would have inevitably been made by Sunak had he stayed on.
Now, you can agree with - and even admire - those choices, but they're over and above what would have been needed to close the literal fiscal hole and will come at the expense of lower growth in years to come as that tax and expansion crowds out private sector investment, and increases inflation.
That was a choice, and at odds with the platform they ran on to prioritise growth.
There are good reasons why his model behaved rather shonkily this year, the nature and scale of unaffiliated voters was different, and probably skews more D than Jon R has been admitting. He’s not really admitted that till now. But now he has and he’s tipped it to Harris. I think she’ll beat his margin.
Every single election, the GOP claim their share of the black vote is increasing but it stays resolutely low.
That year the non-DoR vote was 2.3% including above.
https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1853524385694699922
HIs central thesis is that a lot of the independents are closet Democrats who have been registered by pro-Democrat organisations, and it will be those voters who will get Harris over the line in NV because the party machine will know who they are and what they need to do.
Unfortunately, it doesn't take a genius to work out how the Republicans - who have been claiming that illegal immigrants have been moved into swing states and registered as voters - will claim Harris has got in off the back of illegal immigrants voting.
Jesus, what a mess.
That is the whole point of the OBR. Concealing information, or not asking for their assessment at all (like Truss) undermines confidence and can lead to the kind of disaster we saw in 2022.
What would you think if Reeves had concealed £9 billion of upcoming spending this time round?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy46iOwWQiE
It's a wonderful insight into the extremely local nature of a lot of Irish politics, the rivalries between and within parties, and the nuts and bolts of an STV election.
https://www.rte.ie/radio/podcasts/series/41642-know-your-constituency/
However Biden won the highest share of the white vote for any Democratic candidate since Obama in 2008 too, making gains especially with white women Harris has further expanded on
From you (and me) - yes.
Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am
Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide
Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
In Nevada, male early voters outnumber female ones. Unless that switches on election day, I don't see how Harris wins it. You need to see at least 51% (and probably more like 52%) for her to be in with a shot in NV.
(And this is nothing to do with abortion, this is simply that - almost irrespective of country - women are more communitarian than men, and therefore vote to the left of them.)
Lay before Parliament interim planning orders allowing councils to grant themselves planning permission for temporary planning permission of up to 3 years for temporary prefabricated housing on open land, ie parks, playing fields, with only very limited rules, IE no risk from flooding, due to the 'housing emergency', ie 1 in 50 people in London being housed in temporary housing, and council's going bankrupt under these costs, many of them labour councils.
This will drive the labour party crazy because the civil service/blob will tell them its not possible and the bureaucracy has to prevail but it will take another year until we can analyse the consultation responses to the last consultation and consult again on the detailed measures that require further scrutiny by the committee before the affirmative resolution instrument can be laid before parliament and actually it could all be more effectively resolved through a 'presumption' in 'new guidance' that will streamline the existing system instead, but actually we need impact assessments of the fire risk assessments and the newts and the derogations from the habitats regulations must be fully considered etc etc....
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions
I just can't count.
@proqmatic
omfg, Trump is not coming out for his Raleigh, NC rally because there are so many empty seats 😭😭😭
https://x.com/proqmatic/status/1853462171616674077
In this one I think I want to know how big a set of covers I need to hide under before retiring, but as it is likely to go on until January, it probably isn't worth a zombie day.
What's scary is how little public spending went up, at least after the "sugar rush" over the next two years, despite those tax increases and increased borrowing.
Even more terrifying is that capital investment, as a share of spending, will actually be the same as it was in the last few years (Hunt planned to cut it significantly in the last budget).
I have this horrible feeling that we are going to go through at least 20 years of stagnation since the 2008 crash.
Interesting last national Marist poll suggests Harris + 4 points nationally…
Majority voters already voted…
Intriguing cross breaks… by gender & education
Top issues, 31% “preservation of democracy”… 25% inflation… 19% immigration.. 10% abortion
https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1853522615190630438
Worth watching over next 48 hours… the :DJT Trump media stock price… slumped 40% as Iowa poll came in then up 15% today…
https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1853521260191662139
OR THE WORLD??
Nice work if you can get it...
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-support-black-voter-plunges-new-poll-shows-1979300
I think was Nebraska where the GOP wanted to change to winner takes all just before the election but they couldn't get all the necessary voted to try.
It was 12pm here. In my head I though "5 hours to 5pm, and then another 10 hours to take it to the same time tomorrow."
...
... right?
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1853513324962455951?t=Z3SyFceQTogg4x98RyEeNA&s=19
It will be an all-nighter for me. Got the morning off work.