3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I always go full daft with UK elections. Dawn or bust.
In this one I think I want to know how big a set of covers I need to hide under before retiring, but as it is likely to go on until January, it probably isn't worth a zombie day.
I’ll be behind the sofa for reports from Pennsylvania…
I asked my US colleagues today who was going to win (most of them are in PA)
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
You need to be online between 12am and 1am when FL and GA results start hitting the tapes.
Thanks. Which websites and tv channels should we watch,? I would like to get everything planned as I have a lot riding on this and a young family.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Someone I know does the signing at her concerts. I'm not quite sure how that works but it seems to be a career.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
Early to bed, early to rise is the sweet spot but how, pray tell, does one sleep when one is not tired?
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Presumably someone said "you'd have to pay me to listen to that crap" and someone took it literally...
If Ralston's explanation is correct, then there is going to be a lot of trouble in the States post-election.
HIs central thesis is that a lot of the independents are closet Democrats who have been registered by pro-Democrat organisations, and it will be those voters who will get Harris over the line in NV because the party machine will know who they are and what they need to do.
Unfortunately, it doesn't take a genius to work out how the Republicans - who have been claiming that illegal immigrants have been moved into swing states and registered as voters - will claim Harris has got in off the back of illegal immigrants voting.
Jesus, what a mess.
Your inflammatory patter expressed in faux polite syntax reminds me so much of a former poster called @MrEd. Are you him or an actual pollster?
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
Woah, @rcs1000, are you saying Georgia is going to drop the early votes at 11am GMT on Nov 5th?
A large drop of votes will land 1am GMT on the 6th. they've changed the laws on counting and it's likely to be all counted in Georgia by the time people wake up.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I’m planning on the first combined with an early night, I should be fine to work the next day.
I can't remember which podcast I was listening to, but they suggested by midnight tomorrow (UK time) you should get the overall gist.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
why do you persist in repeating such drivel
Labour made a choice: their choice was to raise taxes significantly to raise public sector pay, expand the size of the public sector, put more into the NHS and Education, and borrow a fair bit for capital investment, a good chunk of which is for CCUS. They are taxing business and the private sector significantly to pay for it and removing a lot of tax exemptions.
Now, you can agree with - and even admire - those choices, but they're over and above what would have been needed to close the literal fiscal hole and will come at the expense of lower growth in years to come as that tax and expansion crowds out private sector investment, and increases inflation.
That was a choice, and at odds with the platform they ran on to prioritise growth.
Fair assessment, imo.
What's scary is how little public spending went up, at least after the "sugar rush" over the next two years, despite those tax increases and increased borrowing.
Even more terrifying is that capital investment, as a share of spending, will actually be the same as it was in the last few years (Hunt planned to cut it significantly in the last budget).
I have this horrible feeling that we are going to go through at least 20 years of stagnation since the 2008 crash.
We won't, because this Government already has the necrotic stench of death about it. They're busy doing a greatest hits compilation of every shit authoritarian left wing idea ever conceived, and becoming increasingly reviled in the process. Following this, we will have a right wing Government that will fix the economy. 50 year Thatcher cycle.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
why do you persist in repeating such drivel
Labour made a choice: their choice was to raise taxes significantly to raise public sector pay, expand the size of the public sector, put more into the NHS and Education, and borrow a fair bit for capital investment, a good chunk of which is for CCUS. They are taxing business and the private sector significantly to pay for it and removing a lot of tax exemptions.
Now, you can agree with - and even admire - those choices, but they're over and above what would have been needed to close the literal fiscal hole and will come at the expense of lower growth in years to come as that tax and expansion crowds out private sector investment, and increases inflation.
That was a choice, and at odds with the platform they ran on to prioritise growth.
Fair assessment, imo.
What's scary is how little public spending went up, at least after the "sugar rush" over the next two years, despite those tax increases and increased borrowing.
Even more terrifying is that capital investment, as a share of spending, will actually be the same as it was in the last few years (Hunt planned to cut it significantly in the last budget).
I have this horrible feeling that we are going to go through at least 20 years of stagnation since the 2008 crash.
The issue is that, for all the talk of investment, the Labour Party is run by people who don’t want to spend (much) money on things other than the public sector pay & the NHS.
There seems to be no interest in actually changing the rest of the economy. Let alone, say, restructuring tax to promote productivity investment.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I always go full daft with UK elections. Dawn or bust.
In this one I think I want to know how big a set of covers I need to hide under before retiring, but as it is likely to go on until January, it probably isn't worth a zombie day.
I’ll be behind the sofa for reports from Pennsylvania…
I haven't physically done that since Doctor Who's "Empty Child".
It will be an all-nighter for me. Got the morning off work.
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Latest attempt did not work. Need to have both pages of open passport showing with no fingers in the way.
I'm going to lie on the floor with it on my chest.
And I'm back in. Phew!
“ Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. “
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
Woah, @rcs1000, are you saying Georgia is going to drop the early votes at 11am GMT on Nov 5th?
I CANT COUNT DAMNIT. I'M AN IDIOT.
It was 12pm here. In my head I though "5 hours to 5pm, and then another 10 hours to take it to the same time tomorrow."
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I’m planning on the first combined with an early night, I should be fine to work the next day.
I had booked the day off but I now need to be at a 0930 meeting. As I doubt I'll sleep if early data is positive for Trump I may look a bit rough at the meeting.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
29 hours (and 5 minutes) surely from when you wrote that?
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
You keep saying this, but I’ll believe it when I see it in votes, not polls.
Every single election, the GOP claim their share of the black vote is increasing but it stays resolutely low.
In 2020 Trump won the highest share of the black vote of any GOP candidate for president since Reagan in 1980, making gains especially with black men he has expanded on this year.
However Biden won the highest share of the white vote for any Democratic candidate since Obama in 2008 too, making gains especially with white women Harris has further expanded on
Whereas in Obama v Romney for example race was the biggest dividing line, this year in Harris v Trump the biggest dividing line is gender
“making gains especially with black men he has expanded on this year.”
You throw that out there as if it’s standard fact now, but have you evidence they are actually making the effort to vote for Trump?
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I always go full daft with UK elections. Dawn or bust.
In this one I think I want to know how big a set of covers I need to hide under before retiring, but as it is likely to go on until January, it probably isn't worth a zombie day.
I’ll be behind the sofa for reports from Pennsylvania…
I asked my US colleagues today who was going to win (most of them are in PA)
Only one was prepared to opine.
Trump, either narrowly or bigly.
In reality, they’ll have as much of a clue as we do.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I’m planning on the first combined with an early night, I should be fine to work the next day.
I can't remember which podcast I was listening to, but they suggested by midnight tomorrow (UK time) you should get the overall gist.
(Lawsuits / insurrection allowing)
The danger with that approach is you don’t, and end up staying up all night anyway.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
And just checking - they did not allocate the rest to "result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers ". I can't find a breakdown or detail anywhere.
I would guess Labour tried that wheeze on the basis that a lot of spending commitments made since July would have inevitably been made by Sunak had he stayed on.
And anyway 40 billion rise in taxes when Reeves denied any tax rises other than those announced just a few weeks before the election was inexcusable and a lie
We've been trying to run the country on the cheap for too long. Good public services, health care and decent pensions for the elderly need to be paid for. Our tax rates are still lower than most of our northern European peers (who, I might add, enjoy much better infrastructure, health care and other public services).
Oh, and Labour specified before the election which taxes would not rise (taxes on working people: Income Tax, VAT, NI), rather which taxes would rise. Anything they did not explicitly rule out has to be fair game.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
You keep saying this, but I’ll believe it when I see it in votes, not polls.
Every single election, the GOP claim their share of the black vote is increasing but it stays resolutely low.
In 2020 Trump won the highest share of the black vote of any GOP candidate for president since Reagan in 1980, making gains especially with black men he has expanded on this year.
However Biden won the highest share of the white vote for any Democratic candidate since Obama in 2008 too, making gains especially with white women Harris has further expanded on
I know you love polls so here’s some recent analysis..
From NBC which always overrates the Democrats national lead.
However even the 9% of Blacks for Trump they have is the same share Bush got when he won in 2000 and more than double the 4% of the black vote McCain got in 2008, more than the 6% of the black vote Romney got in 2012 and also more than the 8% of the black vote Trump got in 2016.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I always go full daft with UK elections. Dawn or bust.
In this one I think I want to know how big a set of covers I need to hide under before retiring, but as it is likely to go on until January, it probably isn't worth a zombie day.
I’ll be behind the sofa for reports from Pennsylvania…
I asked my US colleagues today who was going to win (most of them are in PA)
Only one was prepared to opine.
Trump, either narrowly or bigly.
In reality, they’ll have as much of a clue as we do.
They presumably will know how they voted
Unless it's rigged...
Interestingly enough, a couple of them expressed concern about postal votes and chain of custody
If Ralston's explanation is correct, then there is going to be a lot of trouble in the States post-election.
HIs central thesis is that a lot of the independents are closet Democrats who have been registered by pro-Democrat organisations, and it will be those voters who will get Harris over the line in NV because the party machine will know who they are and what they need to do.
Unfortunately, it doesn't take a genius to work out how the Republicans - who have been claiming that illegal immigrants have been moved into swing states and registered as voters - will claim Harris has got in off the back of illegal immigrants voting.
Jesus, what a mess.
I think Ralston is wrong in NV, for exactly the same reason that I think Georgia looks Democratic: male - female split.
In Nevada, male early voters outnumber female ones. Unless that switches on election day, I don't see how Harris wins it. You need to see at least 51% (and probably more like 52%) for her to be in with a shot in NV.
(And this is nothing to do with abortion, this is simply that - almost irrespective of country - women are more communitarian than men, and therefore vote to the left of them.)
Isn’t a courageous person who calls Ralston wrong?
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
why do you persist in repeating such drivel
Labour made a choice: their choice was to raise taxes significantly to raise public sector pay, expand the size of the public sector, put more into the NHS and Education, and borrow a fair bit for capital investment, a good chunk of which is for CCUS. They are taxing business and the private sector significantly to pay for it and removing a lot of tax exemptions.
Now, you can agree with - and even admire - those choices, but they're over and above what would have been needed to close the literal fiscal hole and will come at the expense of lower growth in years to come as that tax and expansion crowds out private sector investment, and increases inflation.
That was a choice, and at odds with the platform they ran on to prioritise growth.
Fair assessment, imo.
What's scary is how little public spending went up, at least after the "sugar rush" over the next two years, despite those tax increases and increased borrowing.
Even more terrifying is that capital investment, as a share of spending, will actually be the same as it was in the last few years (Hunt planned to cut it significantly in the last budget).
I have this horrible feeling that we are going to go through at least 20 years of stagnation since the 2008 crash.
The issue is that, for all the talk of investment, the Labour Party is run by people who don’t want to spend (much) money on things other than the public sector pay & the NHS.
There seems to be no interest in actually changing the rest of the economy. Let alone, say, restructuring tax to promote productivity investment.
The budget could have done one of two things - big shift to capital investment or a "brave" set of reforms like NICs/IT, Council Tax, State Pension, motoring taxation. It did neither - but I think they have one more chance at the next one.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
Yes. That run on the pound hasn't happened yet. Maybe the next budget?
The PB Tories will certainly be breathlessly cheering it on, did you witness the unedifying spectacle over gilts yields? Embarrassing.
Yes, we should only mock Tories when their budgets are accused of crashing the economy. It's just not nice doing it to lovely Labour Chancellors is it petal?
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
And just checking - they did not allocate the rest to "result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers ". I can't find a breakdown or detail anywhere.
I would guess Labour tried that wheeze on the basis that a lot of spending commitments made since July would have inevitably been made by Sunak had he stayed on.
And anyway 40 billion rise in taxes when Reeves denied any tax rises other than those announced just a few weeks before the election was inexcusable and a lie
I've not heard much commentary about the £2.20 per 10ml tax on vape liquid. Like it or loathe it - that seems kind of brutal for a product still being dished out by medics to get people off regular ciggies. That's a 40-50% tax hike ontop of the existing VAT.
If Ralston's explanation is correct, then there is going to be a lot of trouble in the States post-election.
HIs central thesis is that a lot of the independents are closet Democrats who have been registered by pro-Democrat organisations, and it will be those voters who will get Harris over the line in NV because the party machine will know who they are and what they need to do.
Unfortunately, it doesn't take a genius to work out how the Republicans - who have been claiming that illegal immigrants have been moved into swing states and registered as voters - will claim Harris has got in off the back of illegal immigrants voting.
Jesus, what a mess.
Hang on, NV goes narrowly Harris. That means a landslide, surely? So even if you are minded to blame Trump's loss on votes from illegals / uppity women, that's only NV and other narrow wins. What about the rest where she wins bigly?
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I’m planning on the first combined with an early night, I should be fine to work the next day.
I can't remember which podcast I was listening to, but they suggested by midnight tomorrow (UK time) you should get the overall gist.
(Lawsuits / insurrection allowing)
The danger with that approach is you don’t, and end up staying up all night anyway.
The danger is just thinking "Well, just one more glass then I'll call it a night". I see you, Brexit Night. I see you.... Blurrily...
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
Yes. That run on the pound hasn't happened yet. Maybe the next budget?
The PB Tories will certainly be breathlessly cheering it on, did you witness the unedifying spectacle over gilts yields? Embarrassing.
Yes, we should only mock Tories when their budgets are accused of crashing the economy. It's just not nice doing it to lovely Labour Chancellors is it petal?
I'm mildly disappointed with the budget. There will be some PB Tories who are deeply worried about the tax rises and borrowing (and fair enough).
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
Midnight in NYC is 5am in the UK. It will still be 11pm on the west coast when the sun rises over London. Unless you have bets to place as the first results are announced it would be absurd to stay up.
I'm going to enforce a switch off on my devices tomorrow evening so I don't get sucked in, and see what the state of play is the next morning. I wouldn't be surprised if the result was still in doubt on Wednesday evening, so there's not much to stay up for.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
You need to be online between 12am and 1am when FL and GA results start hitting the tapes.
Thanks. Which websites and tv channels should we watch,? I would like to get everything planned as I have a lot riding on this and a young family.
Politicalbetting would be my recommendation.
CNN & Fox will be my go-to's - try to watch US & not UK coverage if you can imho.
Here is what I would be looking for from the Tories and I think I can offer a decent insight into the 20-35 bracket too.
Something on housing
Something on tuition fees
An end to the culture wars
Ending the triple lock
That will win a lot of voters.
Absolutely agree on housing. The situation we have now is crazy, and generationally unfair for sure. I don’t know how it is solved short of deporting 4 million people or somehow building more new houses each year than have ever been built in a single year and doing so for a decade. But something has to change.
If you don’t have tuition fees but aspire to have 50% of kids attend Uni something needs to be in place to pay for it. It may be that you go for less students, less Unis or both but a decision would need making.
I don’t think you can end the culture wars. At one end are ultra progressive types who drive change forwards, at the other the ultra conservatives (in the linguistic sense, not the party) who resist. Over time norms change and we move on. What you can do is not make fighting battles over it front and centre of your political being.
The triple lock originated at a time when the government pension had stagnated and was needed but perhaps it’s time is done.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
I see it as akin to modern art. If you can get away with some of the rubbish that gets put on and make money doing it, fair play. Who needs talent for creating art such as painting, sculpture or other crafts when you can recreate your messed up bed from 10 years ago and sell a story about it?
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
Yes. That run on the pound hasn't happened yet. Maybe the next budget?
The PB Tories will certainly be breathlessly cheering it on, did you witness the unedifying spectacle over gilts yields? Embarrassing.
Yes, we should only mock Tories when their budgets are accused of crashing the economy. It's just not nice doing it to lovely Labour Chancellors is it petal?
I'm mildly disappointed with the budget. There will be some PB Tories who are deeply worried about the tax rises and borrowing (and fair enough).
But it's not Truss 2. Don't kid yourself.
I agree. With Reeves there's absolutely no possibility of the budget kick-starting the economy and generating more than the required receipts to cover the gap. In fact, in the event she still holds the position next year, she'll be back for more, because low and no growth won't cover her spending commitments.
NBC early vote page has only added 439k votes since last night.
Would have expected a big increase today - do we think they'll do a big update later showing a big increase all in one go?
Despite issuing his forecast, Ralston hasn't updated his early vote blog since yesterday afternoon. He was expecting a large amount of mail votes to come in today - would be good if he could provide an update.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I’m planning on the first combined with an early night, I should be fine to work the next day.
I can't remember which podcast I was listening to, but they suggested by midnight tomorrow (UK time) you should get the overall gist.
(Lawsuits / insurrection allowing)
The danger with that approach is you don’t, and end up staying up all night anyway.
The danger is just thinking "Well, just one more glass then I'll call it a night". I see you, Brexit Night. I see you.... Blurrily...
The trouble is it's Tuesday. That's a good thing about our elections on Thursdays. You can have a late one and then drift blurrily through Friday and into the weekend. Tuesday requires a reasonably early night.
If Ralston's explanation is correct, then there is going to be a lot of trouble in the States post-election.
HIs central thesis is that a lot of the independents are closet Democrats who have been registered by pro-Democrat organisations, and it will be those voters who will get Harris over the line in NV because the party machine will know who they are and what they need to do.
Unfortunately, it doesn't take a genius to work out how the Republicans - who have been claiming that illegal immigrants have been moved into swing states and registered as voters - will claim Harris has got in off the back of illegal immigrants voting.
Jesus, what a mess.
Hang on, NV goes narrowly Harris. That means a landslide, surely? So even if you are minded to blame Trump's loss on votes from illegals / uppity women, that's only NV and other narrow wins. What about the rest where she wins bigly?
Trump didn't win Nevada in 2016 or 2020 despite coming close.
If it's within 0.3%, we probably won't have a final result for days or weeks and there will be a lot of legal wrangling as Trump will probably start well ahead and slowly get caught.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Indeed. And she has landed her budget pretty well, impressive for a first time out under massive pressure to deliver. Labour will be happy with how things have gone, and will likely shrug off the weird chuntering of ‘Mel Stride’ and the perennial pearl-clutching of BigG Wales, the bloke on the internet.
Yes. That run on the pound hasn't happened yet. Maybe the next budget?
The PB Tories will certainly be breathlessly cheering it on, did you witness the unedifying spectacle over gilts yields? Embarrassing.
Yes, we should only mock Tories when their budgets are accused of crashing the economy. It's just not nice doing it to lovely Labour Chancellors is it petal?
Here is what I would be looking for from the Tories and I think I can offer a decent insight into the 20-35 bracket too.
Something on housing
Something on tuition fees
An end to the culture wars
Ending the triple lock
That will win a lot of voters.
Absolutely agree on housing. The situation we have now is crazy, and generationally unfair for sure. I don’t know how it is solved short of deporting 4 million people or somehow building more new houses each year than have ever been built in a single year and doing so for a decade. But something has to change.
If you don’t have tuition fees but aspire to have 50% of kids attend Uni something needs to be in place to pay for it. It may be that you go for less students, less Unis or both but a decision would need making.
I don’t think you can end the culture wars. At one end are ultra progressive types who drive change forwards, at the other the ultra conservatives (in the linguistic sense, not the party) who resist. Over time norms change and we move on. What you can do is not make fighting battles over it front and centre of your political being.
The triple lock originated at a time when the government pension had stagnated and was needed but perhaps it’s time is done.
The suggestion up thread to hang the Process State around Starmer’s shoulders, like a cloak, is an interesting one.
I would say that he has no belief in reducing process. And will discover that it is impossible to increase house building without tackling that.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Someone I know does the signing at her concerts. I'm not quite sure how that works but it seems to be a career.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Someone I know does the signing at her concerts. I'm not quite sure how that works but it seems to be a career.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
In Chipping Norton, right on the main street, is a building that was for a long time a school, but then became a recording studio. All sorts of really unlikely and famous artists recorded there
The two singles votes in Nebraska and Maine could make the difference.
Exciting!
I think was Nebraska where the GOP wanted to change to winner takes all just before the election but they couldn't get all the necessary voted to try.
Yes - as HYUFD has said, if she holds PA, WI, MI, Omaha, and loses the other swing states, it's 270-268.
So would literally potentially come down to one person - ie one Dem "faithless elector" throws it to the House where Trump would likely win.
Given virtually every Democratic state in that scenario would have a Democratic governor who now has to sign off on that state's EC results before they are sent to Congress thanks to the new 2022 law, the notion of faithless electors is largely irrelevant. Harris as VP would declare herself the winner based on the state governor's signature of all their state's EC votes being given for her
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
Not necessarily.
Given nationally Trump has gained with Blacks but lost with white voters compared to 2020 you could even see Trump win nationally, Georgia and NC and still lose the Midwest and rustbelt swing states
It's possible, sure, but I personally will be watching the Georgia drop in... checks... just 15 hours time.
Woah, @rcs1000, are you saying Georgia is going to drop the early votes at 11am GMT on Nov 5th?
I CANT COUNT DAMNIT. I'M AN IDIOT.
It was 12pm here. In my head I though "5 hours to 5pm, and then another 10 hours to take it to the same time tomorrow."
I can teach you how to count. I’ve been counting lots of sheep, so I’ve got better at it.
Let’s start 1 to 10.
1 - 2 - 3 - 95 98 - NT - Me - 2000 - XP - Vista 7 - 8 - 10
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
No - According to the OBR the 9 billion was not budgeted, and the rest was a result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers
You really need to stop misquoting the OBR. That's the second time you have done that.
The £9 billion was spending pressures that the Treasury (Hunt) did not disclose, as they should have done, to the OBR. That meant that their March forecast could not accurately reflect the fiscal position.
And just checking - they did not allocate the rest to "result of the above inflation pay rises to doctors and train drivers ". I can't find a breakdown or detail anywhere.
I would guess Labour tried that wheeze on the basis that a lot of spending commitments made since July would have inevitably been made by Sunak had he stayed on.
And anyway 40 billion rise in taxes when Reeves denied any tax rises other than those announced just a few weeks before the election was inexcusable and a lie
We've been trying to run the country on the cheap for too long. Good public services, health care and decent pensions for the elderly need to be paid for. Our tax rates are still lower than most of our northern European peers (who, I might add, enjoy much better infrastructure, health care and other public services).
Oh, and Labour specified before the election which taxes would not rise (taxes on working people: Income Tax, VAT, NI), rather which taxes would rise. Anything they did not explicitly rule out has to be fair game.
NI was deceitful but it’s hard to disagree with your overall point. We want good services but too often want someone else to pay. Time to be realistic.
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
I love how absurdly divergent in scale counties can be. On that 538 tool only two counties in Nevada had a majority vote for Democrats in 2020, but those counties account for something like 85+% of the population as they include Las Vegas and Nevada.
Looking at the 10 largest counties in the US (Clark County - Vegas - is 11) by county and county seat, the only one I've never even heard of is number 10, presumably because it is part of the greater LA area..
Los Angeles County (Los Angeles) Cook County (Chicago) Harris County (Houston) Maricopa County (Phoenix) San Diego County (San Diego) Orange County (Santa Ana) Miami-Dade County (Miami) Dallas County (Dallas) Kings County (Brooklyn, NY) RIverside County (Riverside)
Certainly he is a great anti-tipster. If you had taken the other side of his tipped trades last time, you’d have made a fortune. His tip for Trump to win Virginia was a classic of the genre.
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
In Chipping Norton, right on the main street, is a building that was for a long time a school, but then became a recording studio. All sorts of really unlikely and famous artists recorded there
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
Midnight in NYC is 5am in the UK. It will still be 11pm on the west coast when the sun rises over London. Unless you have bets to place as the first results are announced it would be absurd to stay up.
I'm going to enforce a switch off on my devices tomorrow evening so I don't get sucked in, and see what the state of play is the next morning. I wouldn't be surprised if the result was still in doubt on Wednesday evening, so there's not much to stay up for.
That’s kinda my view, but the EV numbers from GA (0100 GMT) might be worth staying up for.
Certainly he is a great anti-tipster. If you had taken the other side of his tipped trades last time, you’d have made a fortune. His tip for Trump to win Virginia was a classic of the genre.
Wasn't there some tipster on her eclaiming in 2020 that the Democrats could win South Carolina and even Alaska?
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Someone I know does the signing at her concerts. I'm not quite sure how that works but it seems to be a career.
She doesn’t even sign her own autographs?
I assumed it was a typo of singing.
Ha, no. Signing for the deaf.
I suppose you could go to experience the atmosphere whilst not being able to hear anything, but it does seem a little odd.
Maybe not as odd as actually wanting to listen, though.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I’m planning on the first combined with an early night, I should be fine to work the next day.
I can't remember which podcast I was listening to, but they suggested by midnight tomorrow (UK time) you should get the overall gist.
(Lawsuits / insurrection allowing)
The danger with that approach is you don’t, and end up staying up all night anyway.
The danger is just thinking "Well, just one more glass then I'll call it a night". I see you, Brexit Night. I see you.... Blurrily...
The trouble is it's Tuesday. That's a good thing about our elections on Thursdays. You can have a late one and then drift blurrily through Friday and into the weekend. Tuesday requires a reasonably early night.
Yeah Tuesdays really are crap nights for elections.
I humbly predict that Time magazine's person of the year will be 'young american women'
It ought to be shared by Gisèle Pelicot and that young Iranian women protesting in her underwear about Iranian morality laws and now apparently taken to a mental hospital by the Iranian authorities. God help her.
Unless I’m reading Ralstons prediction wrong, he’s suggesting NV goes Harris by the thinnest of margins? That feels to me to essentially be a tossup prediction. It marries with my view that NV is going to be one of the closest states this cycle (together with Georgia) and the winner will barely scrape through in both.
The two singles votes in Nebraska and Maine could make the difference.
Exciting!
I think was Nebraska where the GOP wanted to change to winner takes all just before the election but they couldn't get all the necessary voted to try.
Yes - as HYUFD has said, if she holds PA, WI, MI, Omaha, and loses the other swing states, it's 270-268.
So would literally potentially come down to one person - ie one Dem "faithless elector" throws it to the House where Trump would likely win.
Given virtually every Democratic state in that scenario would have a Democratic governor who now has to sign off on that state's EC results before they are sent to Congress thanks to the new 2022 law, the notion of faithless electors is largely irrelevant. Harris as VP would declare herself the winner based on the state governor's signature of all their state's EC votes being given for her
Is that right though?
Would electors in certain states still have agency as it were?
You have to admire people who set up a YouTube channel and eventually manage to get their fans to pay for their first-class plane travel and luxury hotels as they continue to make videos of their travels all over the world.
There are a few Taylor Swift fans who have managed to create a career out of listening to her music and attending her shows.
Nice work if you can get it...
Sounds like horrific work.
Could be worse. Imagine if Radiohead were still touring…
In Chipping Norton, right on the main street, is a building that was for a long time a school, but then became a recording studio. All sorts of really unlikely and famous artists recorded there
Unless I’m reading Ralstons prediction wrong, he’s suggesting NV goes Harris by the thinnest of margins? That feels to me to essentially be a tossup prediction. It marries with my view that NV is going to be one of the closest states this cycle (together with Georgia) and the winner will barely scrape through in both.
If Harris wins Pennsylvania Nevada is irrelevant almost certainly.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Then Americans deserve all that is coming for them.
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
I’m planning on the first combined with an early night, I should be fine to work the next day.
I can't remember which podcast I was listening to, but they suggested by midnight tomorrow (UK time) you should get the overall gist.
(Lawsuits / insurrection allowing)
The danger with that approach is you don’t, and end up staying up all night anyway.
The danger is just thinking "Well, just one more glass then I'll call it a night". I see you, Brexit Night. I see you.... Blurrily...
The trouble is it's Tuesday. That's a good thing about our elections on Thursdays. You can have a late one and then drift blurrily through Friday and into the weekend. Tuesday requires a reasonably early night.
My Wednesday morning consists of being in meetings where I have no input and won't be asked for any opinions. Praise be for pointless meetings, that's what I say!
3 options for tomorrow: Go to bed early and get up at maybe 4am Stay up late and go to bed in the early hours hoping there is a landslide Don't go to bed at all and be a zombie Wednesday afternoon
The latter option is daft. Thoughts?
Early to bed, early to rise is the sweet spot but how, pray tell, does one sleep when one is not tired?
Well you have to get up early tomorrow, so that you are tired enough to go to sleep early tomorrow.
Imagine that you have flown to Istanbul, and you have changed timezone.
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
Do Americans talk about things being brisk?
One of them is heading to the polling place at 6am so that when it opens at 7 he will be near the front of the line, so I guess...
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Then Americans deserve all that is coming for them.
I've never in my life seen one side so confident (Republicans) and one side so full of utter doom (Democrats) in what is objectively pretty much a coin toss.
The two singles votes in Nebraska and Maine could make the difference.
Exciting!
I think was Nebraska where the GOP wanted to change to winner takes all just before the election but they couldn't get all the necessary voted to try.
Yes - as HYUFD has said, if she holds PA, WI, MI, Omaha, and loses the other swing states, it's 270-268.
So would literally potentially come down to one person - ie one Dem "faithless elector" throws it to the House where Trump would likely win.
Given virtually every Democratic state in that scenario would have a Democratic governor who now has to sign off on that state's EC results before they are sent to Congress thanks to the new 2022 law, the notion of faithless electors is largely irrelevant. Harris as VP would declare herself the winner based on the state governor's signature of all their state's EC votes being given for her
Is that right though?
Would electors in certain states still have agency as it were?
No, it is the governor who now sends the state's Electors list and the votes the voters gave for them to the VP.
Legally therefore a faithless elector is now virtually impossible as the Governor of the state if the same as the winning party will automatically sign off all his party's electors for the winning candidate.
Given all electors are also committed party loyalists the notion of faithless electors was near dead anyway
Comments
Only one was prepared to opine.
Trump, either narrowly or bigly.
I'll win in a landslide.
I know there is only 24 hours to save the NHS, so which way should I vote tomorrow?
(Lawsuits / insurrection allowing)
https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2024/11/01/georgia-record-early-voting-could-mean-earlier-results-election-night/
There seems to be no interest in actually changing the rest of the economy. Let alone, say, restructuring tax to promote productivity investment.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-benchmarks/
You throw that out there as if it’s standard fact now, but have you evidence they are actually making the effort to vote for Trump?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CREcow0cR8c
Oh, and Labour specified before the election which taxes would not rise (taxes on working people: Income Tax, VAT, NI), rather which taxes would rise. Anything they did not explicitly rule out has to be fair game.
Ralston has been bigging up Republican chances for days, and I can’t see his workings here.
Your analysis for Georgia is spot on, IMHO.
So now, it’s all down to the Triarii (ie Pennsylvania).
However even the 9% of Blacks for Trump they have is the same share Bush got when he won in 2000 and more than double the 4% of the black vote McCain got in 2008, more than the 6% of the black vote Romney got in 2012 and also more than the 8% of the black vote Trump got in 2016.
Don't forget Trump's gains with Hispanic men too
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-gains-with-hispanic-men-harris-up-with-white-women-reutersipsos-polls-show-2024-10-25/
Unless it's rigged...
Interestingly enough, a couple of them expressed concern about postal votes and chain of custody
As long as the others don't also move 2% towards Trump it'll be fine though!
But it's not Truss 2. Don't kid yourself.
I'm going to enforce a switch off on my devices tomorrow evening so I don't get sucked in, and see what the state of play is the next morning. I wouldn't be surprised if the result was still in doubt on Wednesday evening, so there's not much to stay up for.
If you don’t have tuition fees but aspire to have 50% of kids attend Uni something needs to be in place to pay for it. It may be that you go for less students, less Unis or both but a decision would need making.
I don’t think you can end the culture wars. At one end are ultra progressive types who drive change forwards, at the other the ultra conservatives (in the linguistic sense, not the party) who resist. Over time norms change and we move on. What you can do is not make fighting battles over it front and centre of your political being.
The triple lock originated at a time when the government pension had stagnated and was needed but perhaps it’s time is done.
It’s pretty clear now that this is being designed for Trump to wave around and help his stop the steal narrative .
We’re supposed to believe that they can produce close to 30 polls in under a week .
Would have expected a big increase today - do we think they'll do a big update later showing a big increase all in one go?
Despite issuing his forecast, Ralston hasn't updated his early vote blog since yesterday afternoon. He was expecting a large amount of mail votes to come in today - would be good if he could provide an update.
UTC is a standard reference time that just happens to be the same as GMT.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24697644.john-curtice-delivers-verdict-labours-drop-support/
If it's within 0.3%, we probably won't have a final result for days or weeks and there will be a lot of legal wrangling as Trump will probably start well ahead and slowly get caught.
I would say that he has no belief in reducing process. And will discover that it is impossible to increase house building without tackling that.
📊 Final National poll: HarrisX/Forbes
2-WAY
🟦 Harris: 51% (+2)
🟥 Trump: 49%
FULL FIELD
🟦 Harris: 49% (+1)
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
• Already voted: Harris +17
• Battlegrounds: Harris +1 (full field)
• Men: Trump +10
• Women: Harris +10
——
10/30-1/1 | Likely voters
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1853522911539404948
So would literally potentially come down to one person - ie one Dem "faithless elector" throws it to the House where Trump would likely win.
And so did Radiohead apparently
And now the building is a fucking dentists !!!
Let’s start 1 to 10.
1 - 2 - 3 - 95
98 - NT - Me - 2000 - XP - Vista
7 - 8 - 10
👩🎓
He must be improving slightly.
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
Looking at the 10 largest counties in the US (Clark County - Vegas - is 11) by county and county seat, the only one I've never even heard of is number 10, presumably because it is part of the greater LA area..
Los Angeles County (Los Angeles)
Cook County (Chicago)
Harris County (Houston)
Maricopa County (Phoenix)
San Diego County (San Diego)
Orange County (Santa Ana)
Miami-Dade County (Miami)
Dallas County (Dallas)
Kings County (Brooklyn, NY)
RIverside County (Riverside)
https://x.com/vickiefornyc/status/1853511569851982213
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
I suppose you could go to experience the atmosphere whilst not being able to hear anything, but it does seem a little odd.
Maybe not as odd as actually wanting to listen, though.
Both are showing real courage.
Would electors in certain states still have agency as it were?
Imagine that you have flown to Istanbul, and you have changed timezone.
Legally therefore a faithless elector is now virtually impossible as the Governor of the state if the same as the winning party will automatically sign off all his party's electors for the winning candidate.
Given all electors are also committed party loyalists the notion of faithless electors was near dead anyway