Saw a graphic somewhere (so clearly a reliable source) that Georgia and North Carolina will be quicker to count than most swing states, so that will presumably affect the narrative on the night.
IIRC in 2020 NC looked better than expected for Trump early on, leading to some early worry he would win, but Biden swept the rest.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
If it's a really high turnout, it could still be less than that.
If this report isn't a fake, the Algerians and French knew she was biologically male before the Olympics.
That *if* is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Reduxx is a far right website with neo nazi ties.
It's not their work; they're reporting what a french journalist has said, based on a leaked document.
Have you looked at the rest of the website? Or the agenda of its editor? Its wikipedia page? Done even a cursory check on the agenda it might be setting forth?
Reduxx is a news site like Der Sturmer was a newspaper.
Piers Morgan has accepted the reports as genuine in the NY Post so it must be true. Right? A former editor of a national British newspaper surely cannot be accused of leaping to conclusions.
The Piers Morgan of the Daily Mirror who got sacked for publishing fake pictures of British soldiers abusing prisoners in Iraq, or a different one?
Honestly, I am against trans women competing in sports against cis women, but even the supposed "leaked report" is more of a Caster Semenya thing of a biological woman with a chromosome deformity than another supposed trans panic. Yet the likes of Reduxx peddle lies about trans people to dehumanise them in exactly the same way Der Sturmer published filth about the Jews.
If you want to go ahead and quote it as a legitimate source, given all that is already out there about its editor and their ties to actual neo nazis, well, fine. But that's on you.
It's certainly not a publication I would be quoting in the expectation that other people would accept it as an unbiased, fair and accurate source - https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Reduxx
Amusing that you regard Rational Wiki as a reliable source when it has its own clear political agenda. It is good on pseudo-science, conspiracy theories and the like, but thoroughly unreliable on some other subjects.
Farage enjoying himself in Florida and says the royals could learn from the Trumps.
'The British MP landed in Palm Beach, Florida, on Sunday evening after being invited by Trump to attend his election day party at his home Mar-a-Lago...
With the palm trees inevitably swaying in the breeze and sitting outside under the lights of a balmy November evening, Mr Farage feels at home in a town he has visited often....
“I was just asked [by Trump] ‘are you coming?’ and I said ‘yes please’. One of his right hand men reached out to me. It’s far better being here than in Washington. Everything’s right about this place. Look at it. Look how dreary Britain and Europe are compared to here.”...
On election day, he will be inside Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and club inside the huge ballroom where Trump will host a watch party for his family, closest aides and biggest donors. “It will be very tense,” said Mr Farage, adding: “The Trump family is an incredibly tight knit firm with huge loyalty to each other. The British Royal family could learn an awful lot from the Trumps.”.. He believes his friend has been wrongly maligned by the US establishment.
“They hate him in Washington. They’re snobs. They call him a lorry driver. They think he’s uncouth, vulgar. But they all forget he’s a New Yorker.
Nobody in Washington calls Trump a "lorry driver". Lorry is British English. I'd be willing to bet nobody in Washington has called him a truck driver either. A quick Google search of "Trump truck driver" reveals only stories about him almost falling over trying to climb into a garbage truck at a Wisconsin campaign event. People say lots of bad things about Trump, especially people who know him or have worked for him, but nobody thinks he is a lorry driver.
You could interpret those comments as him thinking he's got it in the bag.
Nobody knows anything.
Deeply philosophical but ultimately untrue. You need to murder all mathematicians first. Oh and @TOPPING - he sounds like he and the vines of the world might be in a cabal.
"Nobody knows anything" is not knowable as, if, impossibly, someone knew it, its truth would be blown out of the water by the fact of the someone knowing that "nobody knows anything", therefore knowing at least one thing, which is, as they say, repugnant to the intellect.
A prediction game that is, perhaps, a little easier. Though I'm not wholly convinced with the swing state averages being within about 2 points of each other...
For the 7 standard swing states, would anyone like to suggest with any confidence something of the form 'State X will definitely be more Blue/Red than State Y'
For instance, 'NV will definitely be more red than PA' (an example, not my opening bid)
You can even bring Iowa/others into play if you think they may get "wrong side" of the main seven.
Personally, I don't think anything is certain in the ordering of the seven, even if conventional wisdom does have some of them as more red/blue.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
Whilst voting is still going on?!
Yep. CA often complains about this as it can suppress their turnout if they feel there is no point.
"Often" is a stretch. Especially since the last major example was in 1980, when Jimmy Carter conceded to Ronald Reagan while voting was ongoing in the Pacific time zone.
Note that it was NOT about exit polling or results (including tea leaves) in other states or even networks "calling" the election.
Further note it was NOT just Californicators who complained re: 1980, it was primarily congressional Democrats lead by Speaker Tip O'Neill.
That night, when he heard that Carter was preparing to concede, Tip called the White House to urge them to hold off until polls closed out West where number of close House races were up for grabs (and not just in CA). Jimmy's chief bottle-washer Hamilton Jordan refused.
Speaker O'Neill's comment - "You were assholes coming in, and you're still assholes going out."
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
Kamala has a path to victory that doesn't include Georgia or North Carolina, which is your scenario.
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
A prediction game that is, perhaps, a little easier. Though I'm not wholly convinced with the swing state averages being within about 2 points of each other...
For the 7 standard swing states, would anyone like to suggest with any confidence something of the form 'State X will definitely be more Blue/Red than State Y'
For instance, 'NV will definitely be more red than PA' (an example, not my opening bid)
You can even bring Iowa/others into play if you think they may get "wrong side" of the main seven.
Personally, I don't think anything is certain in the ordering of the seven, even if conventional wisdom does have some of them as more red/blue.
Farage enjoying himself in Florida and says the royals could learn from the Trumps.
'The British MP landed in Palm Beach, Florida, on Sunday evening after being invited by Trump to attend his election day party at his home Mar-a-Lago...
With the palm trees inevitably swaying in the breeze and sitting outside under the lights of a balmy November evening, Mr Farage feels at home in a town he has visited often....
“I was just asked [by Trump] ‘are you coming?’ and I said ‘yes please’. One of his right hand men reached out to me. It’s far better being here than in Washington. Everything’s right about this place. Look at it. Look how dreary Britain and Europe are compared to here.”...
On election day, he will be inside Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and club inside the huge ballroom where Trump will host a watch party for his family, closest aides and biggest donors. “It will be very tense,” said Mr Farage, adding: “The Trump family is an incredibly tight knit firm with huge loyalty to each other. The British Royal family could learn an awful lot from the Trumps.”.. He believes his friend has been wrongly maligned by the US establishment.
“They hate him in Washington. They’re snobs. They call him a lorry driver. They think he’s uncouth, vulgar. But they all forget he’s a New Yorker.
Nobody in Washington calls Trump a "lorry driver". Lorry is British English. I'd be willing to bet nobody in Washington has called him a truck driver either. A quick Google search of "Trump truck driver" reveals only stories about him almost falling over trying to climb into a garbage truck at a Wisconsin campaign event. People say lots of bad things about Trump, especially people who know him or have worked for him, but nobody thinks he is a lorry driver.
At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.
This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.
If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.
By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.
The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.
If it's a really high turnout, it could still be less than that.
Sure: but as Georgia posts polling data in real time, we'll have a pretty good idea.
Nancy Pelosi has admitted she still has not spoken to Joe Biden since her crucial intervention in July led to his decision to drop out of the presidential race, following a disastrously frail performance in a debate against Donald Trump.
A prediction game that is, perhaps, a little easier. Though I'm not wholly convinced with the swing state averages being within about 2 points of each other...
For the 7 standard swing states, would anyone like to suggest with any confidence something of the form 'State X will definitely be more Blue/Red than State Y'
For instance, 'NV will definitely be more red than PA' (an example, not my opening bid)
You can even bring Iowa/others into play if you think they may get "wrong side" of the main seven.
Personally, I don't think anything is certain in the ordering of the seven, even if conventional wisdom does have some of them as more red/blue.
A prediction game that is, perhaps, a little easier. Though I'm not wholly convinced with the swing state averages being within about 2 points of each other...
For the 7 standard swing states, would anyone like to suggest with any confidence something of the form 'State X will definitely be more Blue/Red than State Y'
For instance, 'NV will definitely be more red than PA' (an example, not my opening bid)
You can even bring Iowa/others into play if you think they may get "wrong side" of the main seven.
Personally, I don't think anything is certain in the ordering of the seven, even if conventional wisdom does have some of them as more red/blue.
Farmers are not a special case. They should be taxed as everyone else is. They're not some great lifeblood of the nation, rather the reverse. They all got to stay at home whilst great wars were fought.
If this report isn't a fake, the Algerians and French knew she was biologically male before the Olympics.
That *if* is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Reduxx is a far right website with neo nazi ties.
It's not their work; they're reporting what a french journalist has said, based on a leaked document.
Have you looked at the rest of the website? Or the agenda of its editor? Its wikipedia page? Done even a cursory check on the agenda it might be setting forth?
Reduxx is a news site like Der Sturmer was a newspaper.
Piers Morgan has accepted the reports as genuine in the NY Post so it must be true. Right? A former editor of a national British newspaper surely cannot be accused of leaping to conclusions.
The Piers Morgan of the Daily Mirror who got sacked for publishing fake pictures of British soldiers abusing prisoners in Iraq, or a different one?
Honestly, I am against trans women competing in sports against cis women, but even the supposed "leaked report" is more of a Caster Semenya thing of a biological woman with a chromosome deformity than another supposed trans panic.
As I understand it, the condition in question affects biological males, not biological females:
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Technically, it doesn't really matter ine way or another what Labour supporters think. What matters is what maybe-Conservatives think. FWIW, I don't disagree with Stride's gloom.
One thing I never pay much attention to at elections is former members of one party supporting another party. Like the Bushes telling everyone not to vote for Trump in 2016.
Sorry to go off-topic, but I enjoyed the discussion about hyper-luxury, on the previous thread.
I *loved* my Naples junior suite @£240 a night. It’s a converted monastery, filled with art works and antiques. If I stayed somewhere that was £2,400 a night, it might well be better, but would it be 10X better?
But, perhaps it’s a case of don’t knock it till you’ve tried it? And as @TOPPING says, £240 a night would be unimaginable extravagance to 80% of the world’s people.
A prediction game that is, perhaps, a little easier. Though I'm not wholly convinced with the swing state averages being within about 2 points of each other...
For the 7 standard swing states, would anyone like to suggest with any confidence something of the form 'State X will definitely be more Blue/Red than State Y'
For instance, 'NV will definitely be more red than PA' (an example, not my opening bid)
You can even bring Iowa/others into play if you think they may get "wrong side" of the main seven.
Personally, I don't think anything is certain in the ordering of the seven, even if conventional wisdom does have some of them as more red/blue.
A prediction game that is, perhaps, a little easier. Though I'm not wholly convinced with the swing state averages being within about 2 points of each other...
For the 7 standard swing states, would anyone like to suggest with any confidence something of the form 'State X will definitely be more Blue/Red than State Y'
For instance, 'NV will definitely be more red than PA' (an example, not my opening bid)
You can even bring Iowa/others into play if you think they may get "wrong side" of the main seven.
Personally, I don't think anything is certain in the ordering of the seven, even if conventional wisdom does have some of them as more red/blue.
Dem MI>PA>NV>WI>GA>NC>AZ Rep
Dem MI>WI>GA>PA>NC>NV>AZ Rep
Dem WI>MI>GA>PA>NC>NV>AZ Rep
Wisconsin is most similar state to Iowa, so I am going to throw away the polling and call it the best State for the Dems.
The Conservatives have the pensioner vote wrapped up (freebies for all), farmers represent 1% of the population (and the IHT thing only affects squillionaire landowners), the poor and vulnerable either don't vote or or difficult to prise off Labour/Reform.
Labour are much more vulnerable on "working people" given the pass-through from employer NICs to employment and wages. If I was Badenoch I'd be hammering that home for the next 12 months at least.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
I was expecting something more refined than that from him. It’s just hyperbole. No argument.
The country is broke. Someone at least is trying to fix it. Complaining about every change reminds me of the Labours early days in opposition around 2010.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
If you want to upset anyone who isnt a current Tory voter youre turning into HYUFD. It is not just silly but completely the wrong tone. Tories need to show some contrition before swing voters will give their anger a moments thought.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Technically, it doesn't really matter ine way or another what Labour supporters think. What matters is what maybe-Conservatives think. FWIW, I don't disagree with Stride's gloom.
That is my point
Badenoch and the conservatives are targeting some Reform supporters but also conservatives who abstained or voted Labour in the GE
If Labour supporters are getting exercised by the Badenoch conservatives then it is working
I am pleased with the shadow cabinet and will rejoin the party and feel at last there is a way back from the Johnson Truss years
A prediction game that is, perhaps, a little easier. Though I'm not wholly convinced with the swing state averages being within about 2 points of each other...
For the 7 standard swing states, would anyone like to suggest with any confidence something of the form 'State X will definitely be more Blue/Red than State Y'
For instance, 'NV will definitely be more red than PA' (an example, not my opening bid)
You can even bring Iowa/others into play if you think they may get "wrong side" of the main seven.
Personally, I don't think anything is certain in the ordering of the seven, even if conventional wisdom does have some of them as more red/blue.
Dem MI>PA>NV>WI>GA>NC>AZ Rep
Dem MI>WI>PA>GA>NV>NC>AZ Rep for me
I’d have NV and NC the other way round. And MI/WI tied.
Sorry to go off-topic, but I enjoyed the discussion about hyper-luxury, on the previous thread.
I *loved* my Naples junior suite @£240 a night. It’s a converted monastery, filled with art works and antiques. If I stayed somewhere that was £2,400 a night, it might well be better, but would it be 10X better?
But, perhaps it’s a case of don’t knock it till you’ve tried it? And as @TOPPING says, £240 a night would be unimaginable extravagance to 80% of the world’s people.
Perhaps my own favorite lodging, was a private room at a youth hostel in Paris, not far from Place de Republic.
Forget the price, but reasonable certainly describes it (maybe 30 euros?) Had to walk up four fights, but got a great view of Sacre Coeur. AND as it was February I could use the mini-balcony as a mini-fridge.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
If you want to upset anyone who isnt a current Tory voter youre turning into HYUFD. It is not just silly but completely the wrong tone. Tories need to show some contrition before swing voters will give their anger a moments thought.
The party needs to take on labour and regain many of its former supporters
I do not expect any Labour supporters on here to turn to the conservatives but there are many swing voters to be attracted to a new Badenoch led conservative party
If this report isn't a fake, the Algerians and French knew she was biologically male before the Olympics.
That *if* is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Reduxx is a far right website with neo nazi ties.
It's not their work; they're reporting what a french journalist has said, based on a leaked document.
Have you looked at the rest of the website? Or the agenda of its editor? Its wikipedia page? Done even a cursory check on the agenda it might be setting forth?
Reduxx is a news site like Der Sturmer was a newspaper.
Piers Morgan has accepted the reports as genuine in the NY Post so it must be true. Right? A former editor of a national British newspaper surely cannot be accused of leaping to conclusions.
The Piers Morgan of the Daily Mirror who got sacked for publishing fake pictures of British soldiers abusing prisoners in Iraq, or a different one?
Honestly, I am against trans women competing in sports against cis women, but even the supposed "leaked report" is more of a Caster Semenya thing of a biological woman with a chromosome deformity than another supposed trans panic. Yet the likes of Reduxx peddle lies about trans people to dehumanise them in exactly the same way Der Sturmer published filth about the Jews.
If you want to go ahead and quote it as a legitimate source, given all that is already out there about its editor and their ties to actual neo nazis, well, fine. But that's on you.
It's certainly not a publication I would be quoting in the expectation that other people would accept it as an unbiased, fair and accurate source - https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Reduxx
Amusing that you regard Rational Wiki as a reliable source when it has its own clear political agenda. It is good on pseudo-science, conspiracy theories and the like, but thoroughly unreliable on some other subjects.
Just click through to the sources. There are more of them on that site than on the wikipedia page, which is why I shared it (esp as wikipedia is more googlable). However the sources check out, and correlate with Wiki and other mainstream news reporting. They're just all conveniently in one place.
As I say, if you're willing to back the editor of a website who was sacked from their previous job for publishing - and refusing to retract - antisemitic garbage - well, that's on you.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Technically, it doesn't really matter ine way or another what Labour supporters think. What matters is what maybe-Conservatives think. FWIW, I don't disagree with Stride's gloom.
That is my point
Badenoch and the conservatives are targeting some Reform supporters but also conservatives who abstained or voted Labour in the GE
If Labour supporters are getting exercised by the Badenoch conservatives then it is working
I am pleased with the shadow cabinet and will rejoin the party and feel at last there is a way back from the Johnson Truss years
Good for you. On the basis of today it’s a long road back. Rabble rousing your core only gets you so far.
At some point your lot will have to deal with similar tough choices and take responsibility for theor bad choices that led us to this place.
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
The budget adds to borrowing and adds to borrowing costs. It’s a sleight of hand that tries to get the government credit for spending increases, while pinning the blame on businesses for wage freezes and cuts in investment.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
I was expecting something more refined than that from him. It’s just hyperbole. No argument.
The country is broke. Someone at least is trying to fix it. Complaining about every change reminds me of the Labours early days in opposition around 2010.
Yes, taking of “the fallen” in this context, just before Armistice day, is a bit crass. You can do better, Mel.
Keep an eye on PB for some better attack lines. I might contribute a few myself.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
The budget adds to borrowing and adds to borrowing costs. It’s a sleight of hand that tries to get the government credit for spending increases, while pinning the blame on businesses for wage freezes and cuts in investment.
Sorry to go off-topic, but I enjoyed the discussion about hyper-luxury, on the previous thread.
I *loved* my Naples junior suite @£240 a night. It’s a converted monastery, filled with art works and antiques. If I stayed somewhere that was £2,400 a night, it might well be better, but would it be 10X better?
But, perhaps it’s a case of don’t knock it till you’ve tried it? And as @TOPPING says, £240 a night would be unimaginable extravagance to 80% of the world’s people.
Perhaps my own favorite lodging, was a private room at a youth hostel in Paris, not far from Place de Republic.
Forget the price, but reasonable certainly describes it (maybe 30 euros?) Had to walk up four fights, but got a great view of Sacre Coeur. AND as it was February I could use the mini-balcony as a mini-fridge.
Je ne pouvais pas le battre avec un bâton!
I had three nights at a glorified guest house in Hope Cove, followed by three at the Harbour Hotel in Salcombe.
The food at the former was way better than the latter.
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Wait til you get to stage 2!
Last time I played twister I broke my partner's wrist.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
I was expecting something more refined than that from him. It’s just hyperbole. No argument.
The country is broke. Someone at least is trying to fix it. Complaining about every change reminds me of the Labours early days in opposition around 2010.
Yes, taking of “the fallen” in this context, just before Armistice day, is a bit crass. You can do better, Mel.
Keep an eye on PB for some better attack lines. I might contribute a few myself.
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Wait til you get to stage 2!
Does that involving patting one’s head and rubbing one’s belly simultaneously?
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Reeves' budget was a better fist of things than I think any current Tory MP might manage. And anyway, for the first time ever, Labour actually told us what they're doing.
The budget adds to borrowing and adds to borrowing costs. It’s a sleight of hand that tries to get the government credit for spending increases, while pinning the blame on businesses for wage freezes and cuts in investment.
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Ask, do they require that from Musko? AND if you can bet on that!
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
They are actually checking if you have any friends.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
If you want to upset anyone who isnt a current Tory voter youre turning into HYUFD. It is not just silly but completely the wrong tone. Tories need to show some contrition before swing voters will give their anger a moments thought.
The party needs to take on labour and regain many of its former supporters
I do not expect any Labour supporters on here to turn to the conservatives but there are many swing voters to be attracted to a new Badenoch led conservative party
The kind of people you should be trying to attract are the likes of Nigelb and Stuartinromford, who are not fond of Labour at all, but even less fond of what the Tories have become. Along with younger voters than you will find on pb.
The hyperbolic and ridiculous criticism turns both groups off, and won't work with Reform voters either.
Contrition first, come up with a plan next and build slowly would be the right strategy.
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Latest attempt did not work. Need to have both pages of open passport showing with no fingers in the way.
I'm going to lie on the floor with it on my chest.
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Wait til you get to stage 2!
Last time I played twister I broke my partner's wrist.
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Wait til you get to stage 2!
Last time I played twister I broke my partner's wrist.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
Seems fair enough. It's politics; and it's not as though Labour did not say similar things when they were in opposition.
What was interesting, for me, was that it included 'working people'. I can see Labour's messy 'definition' of 'working person' to be a gift that keeps in giving for the opposition.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
I was expecting something more refined than that from him. It’s just hyperbole. No argument.
The country is broke. Someone at least is trying to fix it. Complaining about every change reminds me of the Labours early days in opposition around 2010.
Yes, taking of “the fallen” in this context, just before Armistice day, is a bit crass. You can do better, Mel.
Keep an eye on PB for some better attack lines. I might contribute a few myself.
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
They are actually checking if you have any friends.
Sorry to go off-topic, but I enjoyed the discussion about hyper-luxury, on the previous thread.
I *loved* my Naples junior suite @£240 a night. It’s a converted monastery, filled with art works and antiques. If I stayed somewhere that was £2,400 a night, it might well be better, but would it be 10X better?
But, perhaps it’s a case of don’t knock it till you’ve tried it? And as @TOPPING says, £240 a night would be unimaginable extravagance to 80% of the world’s people.
Perhaps my own favorite lodging, was a private room at a youth hostel in Paris, not far from Place de Republic.
Forget the price, but reasonable certainly describes it (maybe 30 euros?) Had to walk up four fights, but got a great view of Sacre Coeur. AND as it was February I could use the mini-balcony as a mini-fridge.
Je ne pouvais pas le battre avec un bâton!
I had three nights at a glorified guest house in Hope Cove, followed by three at the Harbour Hotel in Salcombe.
The food at the former was way better than the latter.
One of my favourite meals in S Korea was a bowl of jjajangmyeon at a motorway service station.
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Ask, do they require that from Musko? AND if you can bet on that!
They don't allow exchange bets from the US and wouldn't trust Musk to follow the rules even if he could open an account from elsewhere.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
If you want to upset anyone who isnt a current Tory voter youre turning into HYUFD. It is not just silly but completely the wrong tone. Tories need to show some contrition before swing voters will give their anger a moments thought.
The party needs to take on labour and regain many of its former supporters
I do not expect any Labour supporters on here to turn to the conservatives but there are many swing voters to be attracted to a new Badenoch led conservative party
The kind of people you should be trying to attract are the likes of Nigelb and Stuartinromford, who are not fond of Labour at all, but even less fond of what the Tories have become. Along with younger voters than you will find on pb.
The hyperbolic and ridiculous criticism turns both groups off, and won't work with Reform voters either.
Contrition first, come up with a plan next and build slowly would be the right strategy.
I am perfectly content to leave it to Kemi and her team
Betfair are making me do an ID check where I have to hold piece of paper with today's date with one hand, my passport with the other and take a selfie at the same time.
Difficult.
Latest attempt did not work. Need to have both pages of open passport showing with no fingers in the way.
I'm going to lie on the floor with it on my chest.
So you don't have a friend or family member who you trust with your phone . . . even in the same room?
Sorry to go off-topic, but I enjoyed the discussion about hyper-luxury, on the previous thread.
I *loved* my Naples junior suite @£240 a night. It’s a converted monastery, filled with art works and antiques. If I stayed somewhere that was £2,400 a night, it might well be better, but would it be 10X better?
But, perhaps it’s a case of don’t knock it till you’ve tried it? And as @TOPPING says, £240 a night would be unimaginable extravagance to 80% of the world’s people.
Perhaps my own favorite lodging, was a private room at a youth hostel in Paris, not far from Place de Republic.
Forget the price, but reasonable certainly describes it (maybe 30 euros?) Had to walk up four fights, but got a great view of Sacre Coeur. AND as it was February I could use the mini-balcony as a mini-fridge.
Je ne pouvais pas le battre avec un bâton!
I had three nights at a glorified guest house in Hope Cove, followed by three at the Harbour Hotel in Salcombe.
The food at the former was way better than the latter.
My best stays in recent years have pretty much all been in pubs. You can’t beat a good rural village gastropub with rooms for ambiance and coziness. I saw the weird love-in for Premier Inns on the PT. They are soulless and shit. The beds are usually okay but it’s hard to praise anywhere where the only sensible aim is to minimise one’s time there. Fine if they are in the centre of cities like Nottingham and Manchester that have good nightlife and food scenes. Otherwise, avoid.
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
If you want to upset anyone who isnt a current Tory voter youre turning into HYUFD. It is not just silly but completely the wrong tone. Tories need to show some contrition before swing voters will give their anger a moments thought.
The party needs to take on labour and regain many of its former supporters
I do not expect any Labour supporters on here to turn to the conservatives but there are many swing voters to be attracted to a new Badenoch led conservative party
The kind of people you should be trying to attract are the likes of Nigelb and Stuartinromford, who are not fond of Labour at all, but even less fond of what the Tories have become. Along with younger voters than you will find on pb.
The hyperbolic and ridiculous criticism turns both groups off, and won't work with Reform voters either.
Contrition first, come up with a plan next and build slowly would be the right strategy.
I am perfectly content to leave it to Kemi and her team
So am I, but this is political discussion forum so you may come across political commentary.
Sorry to go off-topic, but I enjoyed the discussion about hyper-luxury, on the previous thread.
I *loved* my Naples junior suite @£240 a night. It’s a converted monastery, filled with art works and antiques. If I stayed somewhere that was £2,400 a night, it might well be better, but would it be 10X better?
But, perhaps it’s a case of don’t knock it till you’ve tried it? And as @TOPPING says, £240 a night would be unimaginable extravagance to 80% of the world’s people.
Perhaps my own favorite lodging, was a private room at a youth hostel in Paris, not far from Place de Republic.
Forget the price, but reasonable certainly describes it (maybe 30 euros?) Had to walk up four fights, but got a great view of Sacre Coeur. AND as it was February I could use the mini-balcony as a mini-fridge.
Je ne pouvais pas le battre avec un bâton!
I had three nights at a glorified guest house in Hope Cove, followed by three at the Harbour Hotel in Salcombe.
The food at the former was way better than the latter.
My best stays in recent years have pretty much all been in pubs. You can’t beat a good rural village gastropub with rooms for ambiance and coziness. I saw the weird love-in for Premier Inns on the PT. They are soulless and shit. The beds are usually okay but it’s hard to praise anywhere where the only sensible aim is to minimise one’s time there. Fine if they are in the centre of cities like Nottingham and Manchester that have good nightlife and food scenes. Otherwise, avoid.
Premier Inns are great if you are bicycle touring and need somewhere to stay in a city. Blanket policy not to be arseholes about it and the last place even washed our bikes off!
Rubbish. Sick of the hyperbole. It’s completely unnecessary.
If it is upsetting Labour supporters it is working
Nah. It just a bit disappointing . I thought he was a grown up.
He launched a full on attack on Reeves budget which is entirely justified
Really?
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
The real mess was covid and the war in Ukraine costing over 500 billion and high inflation
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
So £9bn was budgeted by the Conservatives and the other £13bn wasn’t budgeted by them and I still think that lack of budgeting was why Rishi went in July and didn’t wait
Comments
Sadly that goes for the current BBC US correspondent Sarah Smith, too.
(I won't even bother with J Webb.)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-will-we-know-who-won-2024-election/
Would it be wise to try another insurrection a couple of weeks before he's due to be sentenced?
@atrupar
·
10m
Liz Cheney: "Women are gonna save the day in this election."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853510502078366133
Well I never.
Whatever next?
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1853509034827018595?t=K9yu5fnxLe3Mj52wRn1EnQ&s=19
I humbly predict that Time magazine's person of the year will be 'young american women'
Note that it was NOT about exit polling or results (including tea leaves) in other states or even networks "calling" the election.
Further note it was NOT just Californicators who complained re: 1980, it was primarily congressional Democrats lead by Speaker Tip O'Neill.
That night, when he heard that Carter was preparing to concede, Tip called the White House to urge them to hold off until polls closed out West where number of close House races were up for grabs (and not just in CA). Jimmy's chief bottle-washer Hamilton Jordan refused.
Speaker O'Neill's comment - "You were assholes coming in, and you're still assholes going out."
Still: given there is definite correlation between the States, you would probably want to see Harris +2 or so when the early votes drop. (That is: Trump likely to win Georgia, but the margin looking very narrow.)
PB punters: if my reading of the consequences of the male/female early voting split in Georgia is correct, them the odds for the State are likely to change *very* quickly in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Even Harris +1 (which I would argue would be pretty negative for her) will likely see the Democrat price move in sharply.
People who bet and know about chance may wish to weigh in on Elon’s lawyer’s claim here.
No way would I have NV as more Democrat than WI.
Nancy Pelosi has admitted she still has not spoken to Joe Biden since her crucial intervention in July led to his decision to drop out of the presidential race, following a disastrously frail performance in a debate against Donald Trump.
So very old american women!!!
Maybe he'll grow into the job.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
Is that five years or ten years?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/5α-Reductase_2_deficiency
But as the page notes, such people are often mistake for, and raised as, girls, at least to begin with.
You're right that this has nothing to do with "Trans".
And won.
His lawyers may be more useless than Womble Bond Dickinson but he has a knack of getting the results he wants.
FWIW, I don't disagree with Stride's gloom.
I *loved* my Naples junior suite @£240 a night. It’s a converted monastery, filled with art works and antiques. If I stayed somewhere that was £2,400 a night, it might well be better, but would it be 10X better?
But, perhaps it’s a case of don’t knock it till you’ve tried it? And as @TOPPING says, £240 a night would be unimaginable extravagance to 80% of the world’s people.
Wisconsin is most similar state to Iowa, so I am going to throw away the polling and call it the best State for the Dems.
Meaning that American women of certain age have personal memories of when most abortions were illegal in most of USA.
Back a half-century ago, they were either too young to vote or young enough so most were less-than-frequent voters.
Today they are older and wiser . . . and are overwelmingly likely to actually vote in elections . . . especiall THIS election.
The Conservatives have the pensioner vote wrapped up (freebies for all), farmers represent 1% of the population (and the IHT thing only affects squillionaire landowners), the poor and vulnerable either don't vote or or difficult to prise off Labour/Reform.
Labour are much more vulnerable on "working people" given the pass-through from employer NICs to employment and wages. If I was Badenoch I'd be hammering that home for the next 12 months at least.
The country is broke. Someone at least is trying to fix it. Complaining about every change reminds me of the Labours early days in opposition around 2010.
Note I think Harris will win Maine-02
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFjxcg4q6TU
I'd have said the Budget was an unpleasant but necessary attempt to pull something out of the wreckage left by her predecessor.
And if you're not prepared to accept that from me, remember that the head of the sainted OBR said it would be generous to describe Hunt's spending plans as a work of fiction.
https://www.civilserviceworld.com/news/article/obr-calling-government-spending-plans-a-fiction-is-generous
Because the truth is that these Conservatives, unlike Major and Clarke, actively created a mess. And a Conservative party that does that doesn't deserve support.
Does it?
Badenoch and the conservatives are targeting some Reform supporters but also conservatives who abstained or voted Labour in the GE
If Labour supporters are getting exercised by the Badenoch conservatives then it is working
I am pleased with the shadow cabinet and will rejoin the party and feel at last there is a way back from the Johnson Truss years
And MI/WI tied.
Forget the price, but reasonable certainly describes it (maybe 30 euros?) Had to walk up four fights, but got a great view of Sacre Coeur. AND as it was February I could use the mini-balcony as a mini-fridge.
Je ne pouvais pas le battre avec un bâton!
I do not expect any Labour supporters on here to turn to the conservatives but there are many swing voters to be attracted to a new Badenoch led conservative party
There was a lot which went along with the abortion issue, of course.
OTOH, some will remember their youth fondly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Slatz
As I say, if you're willing to back the editor of a website who was sacked from their previous job for publishing - and refusing to retract - antisemitic garbage - well, that's on you.
At some point your lot will have to deal with similar tough choices and take responsibility for theor bad choices that led us to this place.
But not today.
Difficult.
And the OBR rejected Reeves claim of 22 billion black hole, confirming just 9 billion was the conservatives but the rest was a result of public sector wage increases
You can do better, Mel.
Keep an eye on PB for some better attack lines.
I might contribute a few myself.
Note that ME CD02, was the locale for yet another "war" between United States and the British Empire:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aroostook_War
(Note it's pronouced "Ah-RISS-took".)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aroostook_County,_Maine
But it’s a bit of a stretch goal.
I’ve resisted the temptation of dreaming about Florida or Texas (though I’ve put a few quid on Cruz losing, just on principle).
The food at the former was way better than the latter.
The hyperbolic and ridiculous criticism turns both groups off, and won't work with Reform voters either.
Contrition first, come up with a plan next and build slowly would be the right strategy.
I'm going to lie on the floor with it on my chest.
What was interesting, for me, was that it included 'working people'. I can see Labour's messy 'definition' of 'working person' to be a gift that keeps in giving for the opposition.
Possibly even a stumble.
I'm afraid his analysis isn't worth a bean, but if he's put his money where his mouth is then good on him.
Net Favorable Opinion of (X) among LGBT+ men:
Harris: +59%
Walz: +45%
Vance: -51%
Trump: -54%
Data For Progress / Nov 1, 2024 / n=544
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1853515674099777760
(Though there’s probably a bit of snorkelling on the GOP side…)
Good on him.
So was limited to about £5.50.