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Time to parse and over analyse every comment – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,126
edited November 4 in General
imageTime to parse and over analyse every comment – politicalbetting.com

V interesting change in language from Donald Trump as he speaks in North Carolina now. ‘It’s ours to lose. It’s ours to lose,’ he tells supporters. Never heard him acknowledging possibility of defeat before

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    First?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    edited November 4
    First, and I agree with Nigel!

    (Oh well 2nd)
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,946
    edited November 4
    I think Donald will be a bit too busy in court and maybe prison if he loses for too many games.

    Or is that wishful thinking?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,307
    You could interpret those comments as him thinking he's got it in the bag.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Some sensible comments from Farage though, albeit given how close it likely will be I can't see Trump conceding willingly.

    Difference from 2020 is he no longer has the powers of the Presidency behind him though, Biden still does and Harris as VP will announce the winner whereas that role was Pence's in 2020.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,873
    williamglenn said:

    You could interpret those comments as him thinking he's got it in the bag.

    Nobody knows anything.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    It's ours to lose surely means he thinks he's winning, n'est-ce pas?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited November 4
    Quite an effective and positive final ad from Trump though, almost Reaganesque.

    Harris' was also OK and sensibly included lowering costs of living and funding healthcare and prescription drugs not just bashing Trump

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1853448203762602264
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    williamglenn said:

    You could interpret those comments as him thinking he's got it in the bag.

    On balance I want Donald to win, but it seems like classic projection to me - like he's been told they're losing and it's seeped out.

    Of course, that doesn't mean he actually is. I'm not sure he's any the wiser than we are.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    williamglenn said:

    You could interpret those comments as him thinking he's got it in the bag.

    I think you might be wishcasting there. He is expressing the merest hint of doubt, which is unusual.

    Although I suspect out of the two of us you will be the most cheerful by the end of the week.p
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    Marie Le Conte in the Carolinas

    https://archive.is/6TieA
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    williamglenn said:

    You could interpret those comments as him thinking he's got it in the bag.

    On balance I want Donald to win, but it seems like classic projection to me - like he's been told they're losing and it's seeped out.

    Of course, that doesn't mean he actually is. I'm not sure he's any the wiser than we are.
    Sorry it's not projection, I don't know what it is. Freudian slip? Only it's not actually a slip because he hasn't said anything bad. You get what I mean.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    You could interpret those comments as him thinking he's got it in the bag.

    Nobody knows anything.
    Deeply philosophical but ultimately untrue. You need to murder all mathematicians first. Oh and @TOPPING - he sounds like he and the vines of the world might be in a cabal.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    HYUFD said:

    Quite an effective and positive final ad from Trump though, almost Reaganesque.

    Harris' was also OK and sensibly included lowering costs of living and funding healthcare and prescription drugs not just bashing Trump

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1853448203762602264

    The entirely, uniformly pro-Trump comments are either a sign that he’s winning this by a landslide, or a post-Musk algorithmic artefact.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    So it wasn't just sneaky Russian disinformation about Imane Khelif:

    https://reduxx.info/algerian-boxer-imane-khelif-has-xy-chromosomes-and-testicles-french-algerian-medical-report-admits/

    If this report isn't a fake, the Algerians and French knew she was biologically male before the Olympics.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    FPT via viewcode -

    IF you like looking (for hours on end?) at live webcams at King Co Elections (which processes & counts about 30% of total WA vote) then check out webcams of Whatcom Co Auditor in Bellingham WA, which is a far smaller operation:

    https://www.whatcomcounty.us/3490/Live-Webcams

    Note that Whatcom is perhaps the most politically-polarized county in WA, including lots of Libtard college students on one hand, and mega-MAGA-maniac Dutch-heritage dairy farmers on the other; also includes one of the few swing legislative districts in the state.

    Fearless prediction & betting tip: Dem incumbents will retain two state house seats in LD 42.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Badenoch gives Jenrick Shadow Justice Secretary, a significant role and makes use of his former career as a lawyer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1853494293752586293
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quite an effective and positive final ad from Trump though, almost Reaganesque.

    Harris' was also OK and sensibly included lowering costs of living and funding healthcare and prescription drugs not just bashing Trump

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1853448203762602264

    The entirely, uniformly pro-Trump comments are either a sign that he’s winning this by a landslide, or a post-Musk algorithmic artefact.
    They weren't entirely positive, I just scrolled down to comments 5 and 6 and both were pro Harris although Luntz was a former GOP pollster
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    @SamCoatesSky

    Small thing, but Team Badenoch hasn't actually actually confirmed Robert Jenrick's appointment to shadow justice yet

    Sure it's just a matter of time
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    carnforth said:

    So it wasn't just sneaky Russian disinformation about Imane Khelif:

    https://reduxx.info/algerian-boxer-imane-khelif-has-xy-chromosomes-and-testicles-french-algerian-medical-report-admits/

    If this report isn't a fake, the Algerians and French knew she was biologically male before the Olympics.

    So all you have to do now is get the Algerian govt to change the rules for the next Olympics
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    @DanTillotson

    I don't think this election is going to be as close as the 24-hr news networks would like. I would suggest that it's not going to be that close at all.

    @mikeysmith

    I think you’re probably right. On the other hand, nobody at this point can (or is willing to) predict in which direction it’s going to be not close.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    FPT via viewcode -

    IF you like looking (for hours on end?) at live webcams at King Co Elections (which processes & counts about 30% of total WA vote) then check out webcams of Whatcom Co Auditor in Bellingham WA, which is a far smaller operation:

    https://www.whatcomcounty.us/3490/Live-Webcams

    Note that Whatcom is perhaps the most politically-polarized county in WA, including lots of Libtard college students on one hand, and mega-MAGA-maniac Dutch-heritage dairy farmers on the other; also includes one of the few swing legislative districts in the state.

    Fearless prediction & betting tip: Dem incumbents will retain two state house seats in LD 42.

    SSI. What’s your overall prediction for the Presidential?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    HYUFD said:

    Badenoch gives Jenrick Shadow Justice Secretary, a significant role and makes use of his former career as a lawyer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1853494293752586293

    Braverman Home Sec? :lol:
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    TimT said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    FPT via viewcode -

    IF you like looking (for hours on end?) at live webcams at King Co Elections (which processes & counts about 30% of total WA vote) then check out webcams of Whatcom Co Auditor in Bellingham WA, which is a far smaller operation:

    https://www.whatcomcounty.us/3490/Live-Webcams

    Note that Whatcom is perhaps the most politically-polarized county in WA, including lots of Libtard college students on one hand, and mega-MAGA-maniac Dutch-heritage dairy farmers on the other; also includes one of the few swing legislative districts in the state.

    Fearless prediction & betting tip: Dem incumbents will retain two state house seats in LD 42.

    SSI. What’s your overall prediction for the Presidential?
    Lots of yelling and shouting . . . plus more (in more ways than one) hot air to float about a billion blimps.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,707
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Badenoch gives Jenrick Shadow Justice Secretary, a significant role and makes use of his former career as a lawyer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1853494293752586293

    Braverman Home Sec? :lol:
    I doubt it. Unless there really is a lack of people wanting to serve.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    carnforth said:

    So it wasn't just sneaky Russian disinformation about Imane Khelif:

    https://reduxx.info/algerian-boxer-imane-khelif-has-xy-chromosomes-and-testicles-french-algerian-medical-report-admits/

    If this report isn't a fake, the Algerians and French knew she was biologically male before the Olympics.

    That *if* is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Reduxx is a far right website with neo nazi ties.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    edited November 4
    HYUFD said:

    Quite an effective and positive final ad from Trump though, almost Reaganesque.

    Harris' was also OK and sensibly included lowering costs of living and funding healthcare and prescription drugs not just bashing Trump

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1853448203762602264

    So Trump expects people to forget his hate filled campaign and fall for this warm and cuddly guff . Kamala is just joy personified and that smile is so endearing.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Badenoch gives Jenrick Shadow Justice Secretary, a significant role and makes use of his former career as a lawyer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1853494293752586293

    Braverman Home Sec? :lol:
    It'd be a great move if she didn't give Braverman a post. I have big doubts about Badenoch, but excluding Braverman would be a big plus.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    TimT said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    FPT via viewcode -

    IF you like looking (for hours on end?) at live webcams at King Co Elections (which processes & counts about 30% of total WA vote) then check out webcams of Whatcom Co Auditor in Bellingham WA, which is a far smaller operation:

    https://www.whatcomcounty.us/3490/Live-Webcams

    Note that Whatcom is perhaps the most politically-polarized county in WA, including lots of Libtard college students on one hand, and mega-MAGA-maniac Dutch-heritage dairy farmers on the other; also includes one of the few swing legislative districts in the state.

    Fearless prediction & betting tip: Dem incumbents will retain two state house seats in LD 42.

    SSI. What’s your overall prediction for the Presidential?
    Lots of yelling and shouting . . . plus more (in more ways than one) hot air to float about a billion blimps.
    LOL. That’s a prediction, and an easy one at that. Was hope more for your view on the Electoral College numbers …. Hey ho!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    edited November 4
    Scott_xP said:

    @DanTillotson

    I don't think this election is going to be as close as the 24-hr news networks would like. I would suggest that it's not going to be that close at all.

    @mikeysmith

    I think you’re probably right. On the other hand, nobody at this point can (or is willing to) predict in which direction it’s going to be not close.

    Yes, I think the swing states will swing together. I think Trump gets AZ, Harris gets the others which works out as Harris 308, Trump 230.

    image

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Starry said:

    Sexual assault, yet the Christians vote for him.
    Moves the embassy to Jerusalem and continually disparages Muslims yet he gets the thumbs up from some 'moslem' leaders.
    Calls Latinos criminals and rapists yet they vote for him in increasingly large numbers.
    Courts white supremacists, yet black men are a rising demographic.
    Tries to overthrow democracy, yet he's favoured to be elected president.

    The US is one bizarre nation.

    Not so bizarre. Many people don’t mind being abused if they think the abuser hates the people they hate.

    So, you had women supporting Khomeini in droves. Republicans supporting the IRA, even when they murdered relatives and extorted from their community. Dictatorships thrive on making people both victims and accomplices,
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky

    Small thing, but Team Badenoch hasn't actually actually confirmed Robert Jenrick's appointment to shadow justice yet

    Sure it's just a matter of time

    Guido has apparently
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DanTillotson

    I don't think this election is going to be as close as the 24-hr news networks would like. I would suggest that it's not going to be that close at all.

    @mikeysmith

    I think you’re probably right. On the other hand, nobody at this point can (or is willing to) predict in which direction it’s going to be not close.

    Yes, I think the swing states will swing together. I think Trump gets AZ, Harris gets the others which works out as Harris 308, Trump 230.

    image

    I think he gets Nevada and Norrh Carolina.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,828
    It's interesting that for the most part Democrats have obviously been wary of appearing overconfident, whereas Trump usually expresses absurd levels of overconfidence (such as that he'd win California with an honest election).

    So while it likely means nothing it's understandable if people pick up on perceived changes like Denocrats talking more confidently now they're in the final stretch or Trump even hinting at possibility of defeat.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Sean_F said:

    Starry said:

    Sexual assault, yet the Christians vote for him.
    Moves the embassy to Jerusalem and continually disparages Muslims yet he gets the thumbs up from some 'moslem' leaders.
    Calls Latinos criminals and rapists yet they vote for him in increasingly large numbers.
    Courts white supremacists, yet black men are a rising demographic.
    Tries to overthrow democracy, yet he's favoured to be elected president.

    The US is one bizarre nation.

    Not so bizarre. Many people don’t mind being abused if they think the abuser hates the people they hate.

    So, you had women supporting Khomeini in droves. Republicans supporting the IRA, even when they murdered relatives and extorted from their community. Dictatorships thrive on making people both victims and accomplices,
    Complicity was Saddam’s greatest WMD
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    kyf_100 said:

    carnforth said:

    So it wasn't just sneaky Russian disinformation about Imane Khelif:

    https://reduxx.info/algerian-boxer-imane-khelif-has-xy-chromosomes-and-testicles-french-algerian-medical-report-admits/

    If this report isn't a fake, the Algerians and French knew she was biologically male before the Olympics.

    That *if* is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Reduxx is a far right website with neo nazi ties.
    It's not their work; they're reporting what a french journalist has said, based on a leaked document.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    edited November 4
    The interesting and challenging question for us Brits is why do we care so much about this election.

    The reason is that we’re vulnerable to the result. Perhaps more vulnerable than we an actually need to be.

    We do seem to bet the house on a good outcome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,828
    edited November 4
    Saw a graphic somewhere (so clearly a reliable source) that Georgia and North Carolina will be quicker to count than most swing states, so that will presumably affect the narrative on the night.

    IIRC in 2020 NC looked better than expected for Trump early on, leading to some early worry he would win, but Biden swept the rest.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky

    Small thing, but Team Badenoch hasn't actually actually confirmed Robert Jenrick's appointment to shadow justice yet

    Sure it's just a matter of time

    Guido has apparently
    Well that confirms everything.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,185
    kle4 said:

    It's interesting that for the most part Democrats have obviously been wary of appearing overconfident, whereas Trump usually expresses absurd levels of overconfidence (such as that he'd win California with an honest election).

    So while it likely means nothing it's understandable if people pick up on perceived changes like Denocrats talking more confidently now they're in the final stretch or Trump even hinting at possibility of defeat.

    I think also when you have an election that is publicly seen as a dead heat everyone is hyper attuned to every potential signal of what the campaigns might be seeing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,828
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DanTillotson

    I don't think this election is going to be as close as the 24-hr news networks would like. I would suggest that it's not going to be that close at all.

    @mikeysmith

    I think you’re probably right. On the other hand, nobody at this point can (or is willing to) predict in which direction it’s going to be not close.

    Yes, I think the swing states will swing together. I think Trump gets AZ, Harris gets the others which works out as Harris 308, Trump 230.

    image

    I think he gets Nevada and Norrh Carolina.
    Same here.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    Fun fact about Whatcom Co WA (mentioned below) is that it is one of the few places in USA with significant population of Sikhs in RURAL locations.

    This is because most have kinfolk a few miles to the north (of the 49th parallel) in British Columbia; same as with the county's Dutch-heritage residents (also mentioned below).

    Further note that the elected Whatcom Co Executive (who was reelected last year) is Satpal Sidhu.

    Yet another fun fact: infamous (almost) Pig War of 1859 between US and UK over ownership of San Juan Islands, was sparked when the Sheriff of Whatcom County arrested a British subject for killing a pig owned by an American citizen, because said pig ate up part of the Brit's garden.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pig_War_(1859)
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    carnforth said:

    kyf_100 said:

    carnforth said:

    So it wasn't just sneaky Russian disinformation about Imane Khelif:

    https://reduxx.info/algerian-boxer-imane-khelif-has-xy-chromosomes-and-testicles-french-algerian-medical-report-admits/

    If this report isn't a fake, the Algerians and French knew she was biologically male before the Olympics.

    That *if* is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Reduxx is a far right website with neo nazi ties.
    It's not their work; they're reporting what a french journalist has said, based on a leaked document.
    Have you looked at the rest of the website? Or the agenda of its editor? Its wikipedia page? Done even a cursory check on the agenda it might be setting forth?

    Reduxx is a news site like Der Sturmer was a newspaper.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DanTillotson

    I don't think this election is going to be as close as the 24-hr news networks would like. I would suggest that it's not going to be that close at all.

    @mikeysmith

    I think you’re probably right. On the other hand, nobody at this point can (or is willing to) predict in which direction it’s going to be not close.

    Yes, I think the swing states will swing together. I think Trump gets AZ, Harris gets the others which works out as Harris 308, Trump 230.

    image

    I think he gets Nevada and Norrh Carolina.
    Same here.
    If that happens it's 262 Trump 276 Harris. I'm sure that won't upset anybody
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,707
    Sean_F said:

    Starry said:

    Sexual assault, yet the Christians vote for him.
    Moves the embassy to Jerusalem and continually disparages Muslims yet he gets the thumbs up from some 'moslem' leaders.
    Calls Latinos criminals and rapists yet they vote for him in increasingly large numbers.
    Courts white supremacists, yet black men are a rising demographic.
    Tries to overthrow democracy, yet he's favoured to be elected president.

    The US is one bizarre nation.

    Not so bizarre. Many people don’t mind being abused if they think the abuser hates the people they hate.

    So, you had women supporting Khomeini in droves. Republicans supporting the IRA, even when they murdered relatives and extorted from their community. Dictatorships thrive on making people both victims and accomplices,
    It is in the United States.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky

    Small thing, but Team Badenoch hasn't actually actually confirmed Robert Jenrick's appointment to shadow justice yet

    Sure it's just a matter of time

    Guido has apparently
    Just need the Telegraph to confirm and then we know it's not true.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Over £2 million available to LAY Trump at 1.68 on Betfair Exchange.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    Jonathan said:

    The interesting and challenging question for us Brits is why do we care so much about this election.

    The reason is that we’re vulnerable to the result. Perhaps more vulnerable than we an actually need to be.

    We do seem to bet the house on a good outcome.

    Ukraine and tariffs make it a big deal for us. If they were not in play, I would not be following it all as closely as I have been.
  • novanova Posts: 690
    kle4 said:

    Saw a graphic somewhere (so clearly a reliable source) that Georgia and North Carolina will be quicker to count than most swing states, so that will presumably affect the narrative on the night.

    IIRC in 2020 NC looked better than expected for Trump early on, leading to some early worry he would win, but Biden swept the rest.

    Trump went ahead in the betting, and stayed there even when it would need some astonishing results for him to win. He even declared himself winner, well after he'd clearly lost.

    That was the easiest money I've ever made betting.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Omnium said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Badenoch gives Jenrick Shadow Justice Secretary, a significant role and makes use of his former career as a lawyer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1853494293752586293

    Braverman Home Sec? :lol:
    It'd be a great move if she didn't give Braverman a post. I have big doubts about Badenoch, but excluding Braverman would be a big plus.
    Oh, I'm not anticipating a role for Braverman.

    Naturally I don't agree, and frankly your lack of endorsement is another thing in her favour as far as I'm concerned.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Mel stride and Priti Patel are two rock solid appointments by Kemi Badenoch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Farage enjoying himself in Florida and says the royals could learn from the Trumps.

    'The British MP landed in Palm Beach, Florida, on Sunday evening after being invited by Trump to attend his election day party at his home Mar-a-Lago...

    With the palm trees inevitably swaying in the breeze and sitting outside under the lights of a balmy November evening, Mr Farage feels at home in a town he has visited often....

    “I was just asked [by Trump] ‘are you coming?’ and I said ‘yes please’. One of his right hand men reached out to me. It’s far better being here than in Washington. Everything’s right about this place. Look at it. Look how dreary Britain and Europe are compared to here.”...

    On election day, he will be inside Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and club inside the huge ballroom where Trump will host a watch party for his family, closest aides and biggest donors. “It will be very tense,” said Mr Farage, adding: “The Trump family is an incredibly tight knit firm with huge loyalty to each other. The British Royal family could learn an awful lot from the Trumps.”..
    He believes his friend has been wrongly maligned by the US establishment.

    “They hate him in Washington. They’re snobs. They call him a lorry driver. They think he’s uncouth, vulgar. But they all forget he’s a New Yorker.

    “The snobbery against him is just incredible. But politics is aligning. We are seeing it in Britain, across Europe and America. Centre-Right values are much more attuned to working class people than they are to the upper middle classes and the trump campaign symbolises that. It’s changing.”
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/11/04/nigel-farage-donald-trump-play-golf-if-kamala-harris-wins/
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    Jonathan said:

    The interesting and challenging question for us Brits is why do we care so much about this election.

    The reason is that we’re vulnerable to the result. Perhaps more vulnerable than we an actually need to be.

    We do seem to bet the house on a good outcome.

    Nato and the global economy are at risk. As is western democracy itself. So yeah, pretty important. More important than our own one was imo.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    "Who verifies BBC Verify? The disinformation unit has a record of failure
    David Rose and Archie Earle"

    https://unherd.com/2024/11/who-verifies-bbc-verify/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Jonathan said:

    Mel stride and Priti Patel are two rock solid appointments by Kemi Badenoch.

    Mel Stride is a bit lightweight (obviously not literally) for COTE, but I don't know who I'd have picked. Hunt might have been the best bet and he's ruled himself out.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,307
    Rory Stewart claims he has bet the maximum he was allowed to on Harris, in case anyone wants to offer him odds:

    https://x.com/rorystewartuk/status/1853327102864478705
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Jonathan said:

    Mel stride and Priti Patel are two rock solid appointments by Kemi Badenoch.

    Patel is a loose cannon but Stride is a decent MP.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    SouthamObserver said:

    Jonathan said:

    The interesting and challenging question for us Brits is why do we care so much about this election.

    The reason is that we’re vulnerable to the result. Perhaps more vulnerable than we an actually need to be.

    We do seem to bet the house on a good outcome.

    Ukraine and tariffs make it a big deal for us. If they were not in play, I would not be following it all as closely as I have been.
    We should not have allowed us to be this vulnerable, although the demise of NATO would always be a big deal. It’s just a shame all our eggs are currently in that basket.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    edited November 4
    A prediction game that is, perhaps, a little easier. Though I'm not wholly convinced with the swing state averages being within about 2 points of each other...

    For the 7 standard swing states, would anyone like to suggest with any confidence something of the form 'State X will definitely be more Blue/Red than State Y'

    For instance, 'NV will definitely be more red than PA' (an example, not my opening bid)

    You can even bring Iowa/others into play if you think they may get "wrong side" of the main seven.

    Personally, I don't think anything is certain in the ordering of the seven, even if conventional wisdom does have some of them as more red/blue.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,825
    Jonathan said:

    The interesting and challenging question for us Brits is why do we care so much about this election.

    The reason is that we’re vulnerable to the result. Perhaps more vulnerable than we an actually need to be.

    We do seem to bet the house on a good outcome.

    Its not a bet, its inevitable.

    "If America sneezes, Europe catches a cold" - regardless of the choice of our own Governments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,828
    nova said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw a graphic somewhere (so clearly a reliable source) that Georgia and North Carolina will be quicker to count than most swing states, so that will presumably affect the narrative on the night.

    IIRC in 2020 NC looked better than expected for Trump early on, leading to some early worry he would win, but Biden swept the rest.

    Trump went ahead in the betting, and stayed there even when it would need some astonishing results for him to win. He even declared himself winner, well after he'd clearly lost.

    That was the easiest money I've ever made betting.
    I hope you get the dame opportunity.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    Jonathan said:

    The interesting and challenging question for us Brits is why do we care so much about this election.

    The reason is that we’re vulnerable to the result. Perhaps more vulnerable than we an actually need to be.

    We do seem to bet the house on a good outcome.

    A whole load of Russian nukes are targeted at us. We'll not just have orange, but positively glow-in-the-dark hair. Trump will get us killed. Maybe it's not him, maybe it's someone equally stupid, but allowing stupid people to rise to power is really not a good plan.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    It's ours to lose surely means he thinks he's winning, n'est-ce pas?

    In normal speech, that would be the common interpretation.

    In Trump speech, it is a very unusual choice of words and think betrays limited confidence.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    kle4 said:

    Saw a graphic somewhere (so clearly a reliable source) that Georgia and North Carolina will be quicker to count than most swing states, so that will presumably affect the narrative on the night.

    IIRC in 2020 NC looked better than expected for Trump early on, leading to some early worry he would win, but Biden swept the rest.

    Florida also reported quickly and looked good for DJT, until people started noticing that it was driven by the Cuban and South American counties and the white suburban counties were trending to Biden.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    Glasgow City Council axed IT staff forced to train Indian workers for jobs transfer
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/glasgow-city-council-axed-staff-34024092

    Sadly not unheard of in the tech game but you'd think the SNP would want Scottish jobs.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    williamglenn said:

    Rory Stewart claims he has bet the maximum he was allowed to on Harris, in case anyone wants to offer him odds:

    https://x.com/rorystewartuk/status/1853327102864478705

    He's so full of shit. There are no limits on Polymarket and there's definitely enough liquidity for him to bet everything he has.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Jonathan said:

    The interesting and challenging question for us Brits is why do we care so much about this election.

    The reason is that we’re vulnerable to the result. Perhaps more vulnerable than we an actually need to be.

    We do seem to bet the house on a good outcome.

    Ukraine and tariffs make it a big deal for us. If they were not in play, I would not be following it all as closely as I have been.
    We should not have allowed us to be this vulnerable, although the demise of NATO would always be a big deal. It’s just a shame all our eggs are currently in that basket.

    Oh, I totally agree. European leaders' failure to prepare for the return of Trump - which has been a very real possibility for at least two years - has been an abject abdication of responsibility.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Pro_Rata said:

    A prediction game that is, perhaps, a little easier. Though I'm not wholly convinced with the swing state averages being within about 2 points of each other...

    For the 7 standard swing states, would anyone like to suggest with any confidence something of the form 'State X will definitely be more Blue/Red than State Y'

    For instance, 'NV will definitely be more red than PA' (an example, not my opening bid)

    You can even bring Iowa/others into play if you think they may get "wrong side" of the main seven.

    Personally, I don't think anything is certain in the ordering of the seven, even if conventional wisdom does have some of them as more red/blue.

    Arizona is more red, I'm like 70% confident on that.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky

    Small thing, but Team Badenoch hasn't actually actually confirmed Robert Jenrick's appointment to shadow justice yet

    Sure it's just a matter of time

    Guido has apparently
    Is Guido still working for CCHQ?

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    You could interpret those comments as him thinking he's got it in the bag.

    Nobody knows anything.
    Deeply philosophical but ultimately untrue. You need to murder all mathematicians first. Oh and @TOPPING - he sounds like he and the vines of the world might be in a cabal.
    "Nobody knows anything" is not knowable as, if, impossibly, someone knew it, its truth would be blown out of the water by the fact of the someone knowing that "nobody knows anything", therefore knowing at least one thing, which is, as they say, repugnant to the intellect.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    kyf_100 said:

    carnforth said:

    kyf_100 said:

    carnforth said:

    So it wasn't just sneaky Russian disinformation about Imane Khelif:

    https://reduxx.info/algerian-boxer-imane-khelif-has-xy-chromosomes-and-testicles-french-algerian-medical-report-admits/

    If this report isn't a fake, the Algerians and French knew she was biologically male before the Olympics.

    That *if* is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Reduxx is a far right website with neo nazi ties.
    It's not their work; they're reporting what a french journalist has said, based on a leaked document.
    Have you looked at the rest of the website? Or the agenda of its editor? Its wikipedia page? Done even a cursory check on the agenda it might be setting forth?

    Reduxx is a news site like Der Sturmer was a newspaper.
    Piers Morgan has accepted the reports as genuine in the NY Post so it must be true. Right? A former editor of a national British newspaper surely cannot be accused of leaping to conclusions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,828
    HYUFD said:

    Farage enjoying himself in Florida and says the royals could learn from the Trumps.

    'The British MP landed in Palm Beach, Florida, on Sunday evening after being invited by Trump to attend his election day party at his home Mar-a-Lago...

    With the palm trees inevitably swaying in the breeze and sitting outside under the lights of a balmy November evening, Mr Farage feels at home in a town he has visited often....

    “I was just asked [by Trump] ‘are you coming?’ and I said ‘yes please’. One of his right hand men reached out to me. It’s far better being here than in Washington. Everything’s right about this place. Look at it. Look how dreary Britain and Europe are compared to here.”...

    On election day, he will be inside Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and club inside the huge ballroom where Trump will host a watch party for his family, closest aides and biggest donors. “It will be very tense,” said Mr Farage, adding: “The Trump family is an incredibly tight knit firm with huge loyalty to each other. The British Royal family could learn an awful lot from the Trumps.”..
    He believes his friend has been wrongly maligned by the US establishment.

    “They hate him in Washington. They’re snobs. They call him a lorry driver. They think he’s uncouth, vulgar. But they all forget he’s a New Yorker.

    “The snobbery against him is just incredible. But politics is aligning. We are seeing it in Britain, across Europe and America. Centre-Right values are much more attuned to working class people than they are to the upper middle classes and the trump campaign symbolises that. It’s changing.”
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/11/04/nigel-farage-donald-trump-play-golf-if-kamala-harris-wins/

    He is uncouth and vulgar. People may like that about him or think it does not matter but there's no 'they think' about it.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Glasgow City Council axed IT staff forced to train Indian workers for jobs transfer
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/glasgow-city-council-axed-staff-34024092

    Sadly not unheard of in the tech game but you'd think the SNP would want Scottish jobs.

    Done that
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    kle4 said:

    Saw a graphic somewhere (so clearly a reliable source) that Georgia and North Carolina will be quicker to count than most swing states, so that will presumably affect the narrative on the night.

    IIRC in 2020 NC looked better than expected for Trump early on, leading to some early worry he would win, but Biden swept the rest.

    Yes, I recall seeing Raffensperger somewhere saying that all early votes would be announced at 8pm. If so, that could tells us almost there and then if Harris has won the night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,828
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky

    Small thing, but Team Badenoch hasn't actually actually confirmed Robert Jenrick's appointment to shadow justice yet

    Sure it's just a matter of time

    Guido has apparently
    Is Guido still working for CCHQ?

    He's a Faragist, not an establishment Conservative.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    Last POTUS to make 2nd run for re-election AFTER being denied re-election on first attempt, was Grover Cleveland.

    Who(m) like Donald Trump
    > married a much younger woman after a very non-standard relationship.
    > dependent on votes from overt racists.
    > with respect to foriegn policy more "isolationist" than "imperialist" (for example, GC opposed annexation of Hawaii.

    Big diference: Cleveland was famed for his political integrity, which not even Don Jr. would claim for Trump!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    LostPassword said:

    kyf_100 said:

    carnforth said:

    kyf_100 said:

    carnforth said:

    So it wasn't just sneaky Russian disinformation about Imane Khelif:

    https://reduxx.info/algerian-boxer-imane-khelif-has-xy-chromosomes-and-testicles-french-algerian-medical-report-admits/

    If this report isn't a fake, the Algerians and French knew she was biologically male before the Olympics.

    That *if* is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Reduxx is a far right website with neo nazi ties.
    It's not their work; they're reporting what a french journalist has said, based on a leaked document.
    Have you looked at the rest of the website? Or the agenda of its editor? Its wikipedia page? Done even a cursory check on the agenda it might be setting forth?

    Reduxx is a news site like Der Sturmer was a newspaper.
    Piers Morgan has accepted the reports as genuine in the NY Post so it must be true. Right? A former editor of a national British newspaper surely cannot be accused of leaping to conclusions.
    It's not like Piers Morgan has experience with faked documents... 😃😃😃
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Pro_Rata said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Glasgow City Council axed IT staff forced to train Indian workers for jobs transfer
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/glasgow-city-council-axed-staff-34024092

    Sadly not unheard of in the tech game but you'd think the SNP would want Scottish jobs.

    Done that
    Got to say if the wages being quoted are the ones being paid in India - I wish the council luck because by God they are going to need it.

    Anyone half decent in India now costs decent money because they know their value...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited November 4
    rcs1000 said:

    At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.

    This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.

    If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.

    By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.

    The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.

    I think Trump will win Georgia and NC win or lose the EC now, it is the upper Midwest and PA that will decide it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,828
    rcs1000 said:

    At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.

    Whilst voting is still going on?!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,873
    rcs1000 said:

    At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.

    This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.

    If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.

    By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.

    The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.

    Just so everyone knows, on election day, Georgia will be releasing real time data on who has voted. So we can get a good feel for the extent to which Trump is closing the gender gap there.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,909
    SouthamObserver said:

    Jonathan said:

    The interesting and challenging question for us Brits is why do we care so much about this election.

    The reason is that we’re vulnerable to the result. Perhaps more vulnerable than we an actually need to be.

    We do seem to bet the house on a good outcome.

    Ukraine and tariffs make it a big deal for us. If they were not in play, I would not be following it all as closely as I have been.
    100% agree. Back when we used to live in precedented times I cared not one jot about the outcome of the U.S. election. Although I used to find it interesting in an abstract way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,828
    EPG said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw a graphic somewhere (so clearly a reliable source) that Georgia and North Carolina will be quicker to count than most swing states, so that will presumably affect the narrative on the night.

    IIRC in 2020 NC looked better than expected for Trump early on, leading to some early worry he would win, but Biden swept the rest.

    Florida also reported quickly and looked good for DJT, until people started noticing that it was driven by the Cuban and South American counties and the white suburban counties were trending to Biden.
    So there's a decent chance people will lose their shit at very early news, Trump will declare victory, but Harris could still be in with a good shout. Opportunity there perhaps.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,825
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.

    Whilst voting is still going on?!
    That's past close of polls in GA isn't it? I think their polls close at 7pm ET, which is I believe midnight UK time.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    edmundintokyo said:

    williamglenn said:

    Rory Stewart claims he has bet the maximum he was allowed to on Harris, in case anyone wants to offer him odds:

    https://x.com/rorystewartuk/status/1853327102864478705

    He's so full of shit. There are no limits on Polymarket and there's definitely enough liquidity for him to bet everything he has.
    However, if you bet over the counter they have to phone up if your winnings are over £120, and if you use a FOBT a flag goes off if your bet hits £500.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.

    Whilst voting is still going on?!
    Yep. CA often complains about this as it can suppress their turnout if they feel there is no point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,828
    TimT said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.

    Whilst voting is still going on?!
    Yep. CA often complains about this as it can suppress their turnout if they feel there is no point.
    Time for a single timezone, USA, like China.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    LostPassword said:

    kyf_100 said:

    carnforth said:

    kyf_100 said:

    carnforth said:

    So it wasn't just sneaky Russian disinformation about Imane Khelif:

    https://reduxx.info/algerian-boxer-imane-khelif-has-xy-chromosomes-and-testicles-french-algerian-medical-report-admits/

    If this report isn't a fake, the Algerians and French knew she was biologically male before the Olympics.

    That *if* is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Reduxx is a far right website with neo nazi ties.
    It's not their work; they're reporting what a french journalist has said, based on a leaked document.
    Have you looked at the rest of the website? Or the agenda of its editor? Its wikipedia page? Done even a cursory check on the agenda it might be setting forth?

    Reduxx is a news site like Der Sturmer was a newspaper.
    Piers Morgan has accepted the reports as genuine in the NY Post so it must be true. Right? A former editor of a national British newspaper surely cannot be accused of leaping to conclusions.
    The Piers Morgan of the Daily Mirror who got sacked for publishing fake pictures of British soldiers abusing prisoners in Iraq, or a different one?

    Honestly, I am against trans women competing in sports against cis women, but even the supposed "leaked report" is more of a Caster Semenya thing of a biological woman with a chromosome deformity than another supposed trans panic. Yet the likes of Reduxx peddle lies about trans people to dehumanise them in exactly the same way Der Sturmer published filth about the Jews.

    If you want to go ahead and quote it as a legitimate source, given all that is already out there about its editor and their ties to actual neo nazis, well, fine. But that's on you.

    It's certainly not a publication I would be quoting in the expectation that other people would accept it as an unbiased, fair and accurate source - https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Reduxx
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    edmundintokyo said:

    williamglenn said:

    Rory Stewart claims he has bet the maximum he was allowed to on Harris, in case anyone wants to offer him odds:

    https://x.com/rorystewartuk/status/1853327102864478705

    He's so full of shit. There are no limits on Polymarket and there's definitely enough liquidity for him to bet everything he has.
    That's one way of dealing with the IHT problem.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    At 1am Wednesday morning UK time (5pm here in California), Georgia will release the complete results of all the early voting.

    This early voting will probably account for at least three quarters of the total number of votes cast in the State.

    If Trump is leading when these results are released, then he will win the State of Georgia, and - I think - it is highly likely that he will win North Carolina and the election.

    By contrast, if Harris five points or more ahead, then I don't see how Trump wins Georgia. He would need to win by 20+ points on the day, and that's a hell of a mountain to climb.

    The tipping point is probably Harris +3%. If she's ahead by more than that, she should be favorite to take Georgia. If less, then Trump should be.

    Just so everyone knows, on election day, Georgia will be releasing real time data on who has voted. So we can get a good feel for the extent to which Trump is closing the gender gap there.
    Say what you like about US elections but the level of transparency is impressive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    biggles said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Jonathan said:

    The interesting and challenging question for us Brits is why do we care so much about this election.

    The reason is that we’re vulnerable to the result. Perhaps more vulnerable than we an actually need to be.

    We do seem to bet the house on a good outcome.

    Ukraine and tariffs make it a big deal for us. If they were not in play, I would not be following it all as closely as I have been.
    100% agree. Back when we used to live in precedented times I cared not one jot about the outcome of the U.S. election. Although I used to find it interesting in an abstract way.
    Yes whether Clinton or Dole, or Bush or Dukakis or even Obama or Romney won really didn't make much difference to us, just a bit to US domestic policy.

    Trump v Harris is different as it will have huge differences to the rest of the world too, from tariffs, to NATO, to containing Putin and supporting Ukraine to the Middle East and climate change etc
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,909
    Jonathan said:

    The photo on the front page of BBC News looks like a wedding with caption “I Do” missing.

    Dunno. I reckon she’s getting ready for a swift knee in the groin.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    edmundintokyo said:

    williamglenn said:

    Rory Stewart claims he has bet the maximum he was allowed to on Harris, in case anyone wants to offer him odds:

    https://x.com/rorystewartuk/status/1853327102864478705

    He's so full of shit. There are no limits on Polymarket and there's definitely enough liquidity for him to bet everything he has.
    The days you could just deposit £100k into Betfair no questions asked are long gone. Savings dont count so he would have to show earnings well over £300k, not sure how much. No idea what his income his either, maybe its enough.

    Polymarket is open to abuse, and any transactions in and out of crypto are liable for CGT.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    kle4 said:

    Saw a graphic somewhere (so clearly a reliable source) that Georgia and North Carolina will be quicker to count than most swing states, so that will presumably affect the narrative on the night.

    IIRC in 2020 NC looked better than expected for Trump early on, leading to some early worry he would win, but Biden swept the rest.

    New York Times ($) - When to Expect Results in Each State on Election Night, and Beyond
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/results-timing-presidential-race-calls.html
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    HYUFD said:

    Farage enjoying himself in Florida and says the royals could learn from the Trumps.

    'The British MP landed in Palm Beach, Florida, on Sunday evening after being invited by Trump to attend his election day party at his home Mar-a-Lago...

    With the palm trees inevitably swaying in the breeze and sitting outside under the lights of a balmy November evening, Mr Farage feels at home in a town he has visited often....

    “I was just asked [by Trump] ‘are you coming?’ and I said ‘yes please’. One of his right hand men reached out to me. It’s far better being here than in Washington. Everything’s right about this place. Look at it. Look how dreary Britain and Europe are compared to here.”...

    On election day, he will be inside Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and club inside the huge ballroom where Trump will host a watch party for his family, closest aides and biggest donors. “It will be very tense,” said Mr Farage, adding: “The Trump family is an incredibly tight knit firm with huge loyalty to each other. The British Royal family could learn an awful lot from the Trumps.”..
    He believes his friend has been wrongly maligned by the US establishment.

    “They hate him in Washington. They’re snobs. They call him a lorry driver. They think he’s uncouth, vulgar. But they all forget he’s a New Yorker.

    “The snobbery against him is just incredible. But politics is aligning. We are seeing it in Britain, across Europe and America. Centre-Right values are much more attuned to working class people than they are to the upper middle classes and the trump campaign symbolises that. It’s changing.”
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/11/04/nigel-farage-donald-trump-play-golf-if-kamala-harris-wins/

    Nobody in Washington calls Trump a "lorry driver". Lorry is British English. I'd be willing to bet nobody in Washington has called him a truck driver either. A quick Google search of "Trump truck driver" reveals only stories about him almost falling over trying to climb into a garbage truck at a Wisconsin campaign event. People say lots of bad things about Trump, especially people who know him or have worked for him, but nobody thinks he is a lorry driver.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,577
    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Jonathan said:

    The interesting and challenging question for us Brits is why do we care so much about this election.

    The reason is that we’re vulnerable to the result. Perhaps more vulnerable than we an actually need to be.

    We do seem to bet the house on a good outcome.

    Ukraine and tariffs make it a big deal for us. If they were not in play, I would not be following it all as closely as I have been.
    100% agree. Back when we used to live in precedented times I cared not one jot about the outcome of the U.S. election. Although I used to find it interesting in an abstract way.
    Yes whether Clinton or Dole, or Bush or Dukakis or even Obama or Romney won really didn't make much difference to us, just a bit to US domestic policy.

    Trump v Harris is different as it will have huge differences to the rest of the world too, from tariffs, to NATO, to containing Putin and supporting Ukraine to the Middle East and climate change etc
    Would you still be inclined to vote Trump rather than Harris if you had a vote HY?
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