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Trump’s women problem? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Foxy said:

    Aren't a lot of the land owners limited companies now? Certainly seem so round my way.

    For example Parker Farms Ltd have 12 000 acres of East Leics.
    Yes, much more down south. Dyson is the big one I'm aware of. I'm in Scotland, which is much more owner occupied. It seems virtually impossible for a farmer to buy neighbouring land in the south of England when it comes up for sale, investment companies are usually in first

    What it will do is (finally) force the older generation to take proper tax advice and get the issue sorted out before they pop their clogs. There are still loopholes, for now
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502

    Full story here:

    https://today.yougov.com/society/articles/50845-women-and-politics-what-americans-think-about-the-2024-election

    This stood out for me:

    The share saying Trump respects women has increased slightly over time, especially among Republicans. In 2020, 29% said he respects women and in 2016, 26% said so. Among Republicans, the share saying he does rose to 71% from 65% in 2020 and 55% in 2016.

    Does staunch against trans matter more than the allegations? Or is it the kool-aid?

    Think of all the women who protested in favour of Khomeini, in 1979.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,533
    viewcode said:

    You didn't show The Picture of the ladies d'un certain age lusting after Trump intemperately.

    Aaaargh! Don't give him ideas...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,144
    edited November 2024
    Foxy said:

    A very poor harvest this year round my way.

    Between droughts, floods, wild fires and hurricanes are we finally going to start to take climate change seriously?
    It's still just weather. The problem is that even if the fires and floods are happening every single day, it will remain "weather" until central London is under 3 feet of water in a storm surge.

    The slow creep of climate change is why it is so dangerous. It usually takes something horrific and unusual, like a school shooting, for legislation to change in this country. We're going to need a very expensive pivot to adaptation in the next decade or so before the damage starts to get unbearable.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Sean_F said:

    Excellent. But, other excellent pollsters have given Trump the edge, in recent polls.
    The polling fieldwork includes fallout from the Trump hate rally and Biden’s garbage gaffe . We should have lots of new polls out today .
  • Scott_xP said:
    I doubt Brexit contributed to it as it was inevitable

    However, you do try to tie everything through your anti Brexit lens
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 245
    Fishing said:

    On topic, what about the converse?

    Why does Harris have such a man problem?

    We could write this as;

    "Why do so many man have a women problem"
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    Scott_xP said:
    The UK was always going to do what the US told them on Diego Garcia. Once the US decided it was just as happy paying basic rent to nominal owners Mauritius rather than the UK, if it paid the UK at all, and this would secure the base for the next hundred years, it was a done deal. The UK just had to accept the fait accompli and go through the pretence of negotiations with Mauritius. Brexit doesn't come into it
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105

    I doubt Brexit contributed to it

    You could maybe read the article that explains it
  • Scott_xP said:
    This isn't entirely surprising. The UK is quite isolated internationally. If Trump wins heaven help us.
    Perhaps if we just tell everyone that we used to colonise that they should be grateful to us that will win us a few more friends, eh.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    Full story here:

    https://today.yougov.com/society/articles/50845-women-and-politics-what-americans-think-about-the-2024-election

    This stood out for me:

    The share saying Trump respects women has increased slightly over time, especially among Republicans. In 2020, 29% said he respects women and in 2016, 26% said so. Among Republicans, the share saying he does rose to 71% from 65% in 2020 and 55% in 2016.

    Does staunch against trans matter more than the allegations? Or is it the kool-aid?

    It's something a bit like shifting baseline syndrome. Trump has been a major factor in the consciousness for more than nine years now and so he's helped to redefine what is normal for people. He has materially altered many people's views on what it means to say that one respects women.
  • kenObi said:

    We could write this as;

    "Why do so many man have a women problem"
    As the polling I posted earlier shows women also have a women problem.

    Do you personally hope that the United States elects a woman President of the United States in your lifetime?

    No

    Male 23%
    Female 22%
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,028
    edited November 2024
    Sandpit said:

    Seriously go private for that if you can. It makes a massive difference to quality of life, my mother-in-law did the same and she was overjoyed that she had better vision in her last years.
    The irony is that her optician said she will need it but best to go on the 18 month waiting list now so that she will have it before it becomes a necessity

    He also added in England it takes 6 weeks waiting but not sure how true that is
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited November 2024
    The final jobs report before the election is out later. Although voters seem reluctant to accept the economy has been doing well Harris will hope there’s no shocks there . Initially some thought it could show a net loss of jobs because of the Boeing strike, the hurricanes and an extended dockworkers strike.

    The latter being resolved quickly was a huge boost to the Harris campaign.

    On Wednesday the ADP employment numbers beat expectations so hopefully that will help with the non-farm payroll numbers .
  • I guess if you wanted to provide more relief for family farms that had been in the family for generations, you could provide £1m of relief per generation the farm has been in the family, perhaps capped at five generations.

    The other thing is that, if the change does reduce the use of agricultural land as an IHT dodge, and reduces agricultural land prices, then the value of farms will fall and fewer will be above the £1m threshold than at present.

    Lower land prices is good for genuine farmers looking to expand their farm.
    That's a good point. Mr Clarkson seems to think that the cap will either be raised/abolished when (if) labour are voted out. I'm not sure it will be that simple.

    The key to getting land prices down will be to put off "investment" companies who don't farm it themselves. The growth in solar farms, to take one example may keep prices high, we will see.

    If you are a farmer with little or no borrowing, a land price crash is your friend
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,622
    edited November 2024
    Good morning everyone.

    The differential voting turnout of women vs men for early turnout in swing states is an encouragement.

    The one I want to see is a heavy reform of Presidential Pardons - preferably 99% complete removal, or transfer the role to the Chief Judge of the United States (if such exists), not the one who is head of the Supreme Court.

    To save itself the USA needs to take political whim and corruption out of some of these functions as far as possible.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,680
    Trump on Liz Cheney: “Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face.”
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    The irony is that her optician said she will need it but best to go on the 18 month waiting list now so that she will have it before it becomes a necessity

    He also added in England it takes 6 weeks waiting but not sure how true that is
    It's really not true. My mother has been told she needs a cataract operation, but she can't even get onto the waiting list. She moved back to London to be near the London hospitals in the belief that she would have less trouble with medical treatment, so I think she's a bit disappointed with how that has worked out for her.
  • Scott_xP said:

    You could maybe read the article that explains it
    As I said it was inevitable whether or not we were in the EU
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    nico679 said:

    The final jobs report before the election is out later. Although voters seem reluctant to accept the economy has been doing well Harris will hope there’s no shocks there . Initially some thought it could show a net loss of jobs because of the Boeing strike, the hurricanes and an extended dockworkers strike.

    On Wednesday the ADP employment numbers beat expectations so hopefully that will help with the non-farm payroll numbers .

    OTOH Rachel's cold is going to get worse if US non farm payroll is strong.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,505

    As the polling I posted earlier shows women also have a women problem.

    Do you personally hope that the United States elects a woman President of the United States in your lifetime?

    No

    Male 23%
    Female 22%
    That's a good point.

    I think the really interesting question isn't why so FEW women are voting for Trump, it's why so MANY are, given his personality and record on matters like abortion etc. Presumably they're not all ignorant masochists.
  • Trump on Liz Cheney: “Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face.”

    In a few days it is 50/50 he will be exempt from criminal prosecution for ordering her to be shot. Madness.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,234

    The irony is that her optician said she will need it but best to go on the 18 month waiting list now so that she will have it before it becomes a necessity

    He also added in England it takes 6 weeks waiting but not sure how true that is
    It is true. ISTCs do the majority of NHS cataract surgery in England now, with waits typically of a few weeks.

  • As I said it was inevitable whether or not we were in the EU
    Not what the Mauritians thought;

    The country's diplomatic efforts were spearheaded at the time by its gaffe-prone foreign secretary, and staunch Brexiteer, Boris Johnson.

    “Brexit dropped from the heavens, quite frankly,” Philippe Sands, a legal adviser to Mauritius in the Chagos case, told POLITICO. “There is no question that, but for Brexit and Boris Johnson, the resolution would have had less chance of reaching the General Assembly, or being adopted with such a large majority.”

    A spokesperson for Johnson dismissed that claim as “total rubbish.”
  • Fishing said:

    That's a good point.

    I think the really interesting question isn't why so FEW women are voting for Trump, it's why so MANY are, given his personality and record on matters like abortion etc. Presumably they're not all ignorant masochists.
    It's a culture/cult. People feel part of it. Us against them. The details don't really matter.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,622
    edited November 2024

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    I think if we are to see a wider reform of Inheritance Tax she will need to hold the line on this one.

    It's like the WFP - it is partly up there as a harbinger and a signal flag.

    Incidentally, was there anything on WFP in the Budget apart from the larger rise in State Pension at 4.2% vs 1.7% for the index inflation rate? That premium on the State Pension is worth more than the lost WFP payment for some, but will not head of the auto-complaints even if it refutes the claims - as the Official Opposition have nothing else to contribute.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,359
    There's an interesting angle to the GOP and women.

    Take Musk. He has said statements like: a billion people should be living in the USA. Immigration (of the wrong people) is bad. Our birth rate is too low!

    There is only one way to reconcile these statements: that he wants the birth rate in the USA to increase massively, and that can only be done by a diminution of women's rights. We are already seeing this with the GOP's attempts (sadly, some successful) to reduce access to abortions and contraception.

    Too many people in the GOP see women as only baby-making machines.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,234

    It's really not true. My mother has been told she needs a cataract operation, but she can't even get onto the waiting list. She moved back to London to be near the London hospitals in the belief that she would have less trouble with medical treatment, so I think she's a bit disappointed with how that has worked out for her.
    As well as local ISTCS there are national chains like SpaMedica, NewMedica and CHEC doing NHS work. Google them, and if she meets eligibility criteria for NHS treatment she will be done and dusted in weeks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    edited November 2024

    Full story here:

    https://today.yougov.com/society/articles/50845-women-and-politics-what-americans-think-about-the-2024-election

    This stood out for me:

    The share saying Trump respects women has increased slightly over time, especially among Republicans. In 2020, 29% said he respects women and in 2016, 26% said so. Among Republicans, the share saying he does rose to 71% from 65% in 2020 and 55% in 2016.

    Does staunch against trans matter more than the allegations? Or is it the kool-aid?

    That could still be consistent with women who think he doesn't respect them leaving the Republican brand - and men thereby making up more of those left...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,680
    Sandpit said:

    What? A comedian made a joke at a rally. It’s a massive leap from that to Trump wants to deport anyone who’s in the county legally.

    Meanwhile, Biden called Trump supporters garbage and they all turned up to hallowe’en parties dressed in bin bags.
    Trump has talked about deporting people who are in the country legally: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/03/who-does-trump-plan-deport-who-trump-wants-deport/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,622
    Foxy said:

    It is true. ISTCs do the majority of NHS cataract surgery in England now, with waits typically of a few weeks.

    What's an ISTC?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Trump on Liz Cheney: “Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face.”

    That quote is way out of context.

    https://x.com/endwokeness/status/1852225094724018480

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-liz-cheney-war-hawk-guns-pointed-115383936

    Former President Donald Trump has launched another attack on former Rep. Liz Cheney, calling the Republican former Wyoming congresswoman a “war hawk” and suggesting she might not be as willing to send troops to fight if she had guns pointed at her
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,810
    dixiedean said:
    I can't help feeling he's done the least interesting bit of the Ringway.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,695
    Scott_xP said:

    You could maybe read the article that explains it
    It seems to explain mostly that he has a book to sell. Mmmmm. Clicks.

    The UK government could have ignored the UN decision forever, with few or no consequences.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,734
    edited November 2024
    MattW said:

    What's an ISTC?
    Independent Sector Treatment Centre

    They do things where it makes sense to do them on mass (Cataracts / Hip operations) or manage MRI systems.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_sector_treatment_centre

    Edit - better link https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/waiting-for-nhs-hospital-care-the-role-of-the-independent-sector
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Foxy said:

    As well as local ISTCS there are national chains like SpaMedica, NewMedica and CHEC doing NHS work. Google them, and if she meets eligibility criteria for NHS treatment she will be done and dusted in weeks.
    Thanks, I will look into it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    "farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father."

    Until the budget they didn't need to do much planning. When the time came, the farmer would get the farm.

    So the budget has given a growth boost - to people who setup trusts etc to get round inheritance tax.

    The sane approach to the issue of people using the land exemption to get out of inheritance tax, is to think on what is the dividing characteristic.

    1) People who use land for a few years as a tax haven.
    2) People who keep handing land down the generations.

    Seems to me, that the obvious point to tax, is when the money is withdrawn.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    The differential voting turnout of women vs men for early turnout in swing states is an encouragement.

    The one I want to see is a heavy reform of Presidential Pardons - preferably 99% complete removal, or transfer the role to the Chief Judge of the United States (if such exists), not the one who is head of the Supreme Court.

    To save itself the USA needs to take political whim and corruption out of some of these functions as far as possible.

    The Trump team will hope that men come out in force on Election Day otherwise it’s game over.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,234
    MattW said:

    What's an ISTC?
    Independent sector treatment centre.

    These are private companies specialising in daycase surgery for one off conditions on NHS patients. The specialise in low morbidity patients needing cataract surgery, orthopedic surgery, hand and foot surgery, etc.

    It does mean a rather distorted overall waiting list, with routine procedures in the fit patient waiting weeks, while the high risk patients wait a lot longer as needing inpatient care, and each being paid almost the same tariff.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,622
    edited November 2024
    Sandpit said:

    Seriously go private for that if you can. It makes a massive difference to quality of life, my mother-in-law did the same and she was overjoyed that she had better vision in her last years.
    My mum got her first one on the NHS after a short wait, and then had the other one done privately as the wait would be longer - perhaps due to reduced clinical need (I surmise).

    Both were done by the same surgeon :smiley: .

    The public / private mix of work by clinicians may need some reform, since I think it is a hangover from 1948 or whenever. THAT would distract the BMA.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    eek said:

    Independent Sector Treatment Centre

    They do things where it makes sense to do them on mass (Cataracts / Hip operations) or manage MRI systems.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_sector_treatment_centre
    NHS needs to do loads more of this for routine operations.

    Expensive capital equipment such as MRI scanners should be working 24/7, with people offered the option of turning up in the middle of the night tomorrow rather than waiting weeks or months.
  • DoctorG said:

    That's a good point. Mr Clarkson seems to think that the cap will either be raised/abolished when (if) labour are voted out. I'm not sure it will be that simple.

    The key to getting land prices down will be to put off "investment" companies who don't farm it themselves. The growth in solar farms, to take one example may keep prices high, we will see.

    If you are a farmer with little or no borrowing, a land price crash is your friend
    Seems like only five minutes since farmers were complaining they couldn't afford to buy land as the price was being pumped up by City-types trying to avoid IHT.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    There are still things that could throw a curve ball into the last few days .

    What will Iran do ?

    Logic dictates that to retaliate now would help Trump , given Biden put pressure on Netenyahu to not attack oil or nuclear infrastructure it would seem counter -productive to help Trump given he would give the green light for that .
  • Full story here:

    https://today.yougov.com/society/articles/50845-women-and-politics-what-americans-think-about-the-2024-election

    This stood out for me:

    The share saying Trump respects women has increased slightly over time, especially among Republicans. In 2020, 29% said he respects women and in 2016, 26% said so. Among Republicans, the share saying he does rose to 71% from 65% in 2020 and 55% in 2016.

    Does staunch against trans matter more than the allegations? Or is it the kool-aid?

    Kool-aid.

    The only people that Trump respects are: Donald Trump and end of list.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,622
    Foxy said:

    It is true. ISTCs do the majority of NHS cataract surgery in England now, with waits typically of a few weeks.

    What's an ISTC?
    Foxy said:

    Independent sector treatment centre.

    These are private companies specialising in daycase surgery for one off conditions on NHS patients. The specialise in low morbidity patients needing cataract surgery, orthopedic surgery, hand and foot surgery, etc.

    It does mean a rather distorted overall waiting list, with routine procedures in the fit patient waiting weeks, while the high risk patients wait a lot longer as needing inpatient care, and each being paid almost the same tariff.
    Oh Noes. PRIVATISATION !!!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197
    Foxy said:

    As well as local ISTCS there are national chains like SpaMedica, NewMedica and CHEC doing NHS work. Google them, and if she meets eligibility criteria for NHS treatment she will be done and dusted in weeks.
    Which is interesting, since it shows another thing that doesn't get talked about. Different outcomes in the "NHS" depending on knowing how to "play the system".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,234
    edited November 2024
    Sandpit said:

    NHS needs to do loads more of this for routine operations.

    Expensive capital equipment such as MRI scanners should be working 24/7, with people offered the option of turning up in the middle of the night tomorrow rather than waiting weeks or months.
    Streeting plans further expansion, but it is pretty much limited to quick turnaround surgery in fit patients.

    Getting a quick MRI is no benefit if it's a 6 month wait to see a rheumatologist to discuss the findings. There are bottlenecks in the system to address, but it does tend to just shift the queue elsewhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,034
    If Harris does win it will be women, especially white graduate women, who do it for her
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197
    eek said:

    Independent Sector Treatment Centre

    They do things where it makes sense to do them on mass (Cataracts / Hip operations) or manage MRI systems.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_sector_treatment_centre

    Edit - better link https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/waiting-for-nhs-hospital-care-the-role-of-the-independent-sector
    @bigjohnowls will appear and accuse you of selling the NHS to the US medical giants....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197
    edited November 2024

    Kool-aid.

    The only people that Trump respects are: Donald Trump and end of list.
    Do we have any independent verification that Donald Trump respects Donald Trump?

    I have this idea that if he catches sight of himself in a mirror, he attacks own reflection with a golf club...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Foxy said:

    Streeting plans further expansion, but it is pretty much limited to quick turnaround surgery in fit patients.

    Getting a quick MRI is no benefit if it's a 6 month wait to see a rheumatologist to discuss the findings. There are bottlenecks in the system to address, but it does tend to just shift the queue elsewhere.
    It’s surely a personal benefit if you can get in a six month queue today, rather than a six month queue in two months’ time?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,034

    There's an interesting angle to the GOP and women.

    Take Musk. He has said statements like: a billion people should be living in the USA. Immigration (of the wrong people) is bad. Our birth rate is too low!

    There is only one way to reconcile these statements: that he wants the birth rate in the USA to increase massively, and that can only be done by a diminution of women's rights. We are already seeing this with the GOP's attempts (sadly, some successful) to reduce access to abortions and contraception.

    Too many people in the GOP see women as only baby-making machines.

    The Vatican would not disagree with much of that either and Vance is a conservative Roman Catholic
  • Trump on Liz Cheney: “Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face.”

    She's already much of her life curtailed bu threats and intimidation.

    What a danger to democracy he is.
  • Kool-aid.

    The only people that Trump respects are: Donald Trump and end of list.
    I know what you mean, but (talking through my pastoral tutor hat) I wonder if part of DJT's problem is that he doesn't respect himself.

    We need people who are never at peace with themselves or the world, because that's what drives progress. But Trump's continual running after the glittering prizes, the inability to process that he was a loser in 2020, the mockery of others... They don't speak to me of a man who can cope with seeing himself exactly the size he is.

    See also Musk and all the other rich weirdoes around Trump's campaign.

    Like I said, the world needs people like that. But probably not many and probably not with too much actual power.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197
    a
    Sandpit said:

    It’s surely a personal benefit if you can get in a six month queue today, rather than a six month queue in two months’ time?
    "If something takes 10 years, the best time was to start 10 years ago. The second best time was 9 years and 364 days ago..."
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,675
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    The differential voting turnout of women vs men for early turnout in swing states is an encouragement.

    The one I want to see is a heavy reform of Presidential Pardons - preferably 99% complete removal, or transfer the role to the Chief Judge of the United States (if such exists), not the one who is head of the Supreme Court.

    To save itself the USA needs to take political whim and corruption out of some of these functions as far as possible.

    Is the differential turnout significantly different from previous elections? (genuine question - not sure where to look)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,622
    edited November 2024
    FPT: Not quite the same but "Hmmmm" comparison:
    IanB2 said:

    The US has over three million prisoners, and the proportion of the population incarcerated rises above 10% for younger black men. And it’s an industry, producing almost all military and first responder uniforms, most numberplates, and even about 25% of US office furniture, all for ‘wages’ of a few cents an hour..
    The peak slave population in the USA was approximately 3,953,760 * in 1860.
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7716878/

    * Yes, they took a slave census.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited November 2024

    a

    "If something takes 10 years, the best time was to start 10 years ago. The second best time was 9 years and 364 days ago..."
    HS2
    Heathrow’s third runway*
    Stonehenge Tunnel
    A9 dualling
    Hinckley Point

    * I still laugh my head off that Dubai Airport’s Terminal 3 was completed in less time than Heathrow T5’s planning inquiry. Same project scope, new buildings on an existing airfield site plus a couple of access roads. Some countries talk about doing stuff, while other countries actually do stuff.
  • Sandpit said:

    That quote is way out of context.

    https://x.com/endwokeness/status/1852225094724018480

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-liz-cheney-war-hawk-guns-pointed-115383936

    Former President Donald Trump has launched another attack on former Rep. Liz Cheney, calling the Republican former Wyoming congresswoman a “war hawk” and suggesting she might not be as willing to send troops to fight if she had guns pointed at her
    Business as usual. On a different not Vice isca really good film. About Cheney during the Bush presidency. Well worth it!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,169
    edited November 2024
    The Conservative leadership voting closed last night and in unrelated news, this morning has seen money for Jenrick, although Kemi is still long odds on.

    Kemi 1.22 (was 1.16 earlier this morning)
    Bob J 5.2 (was 6)

    ETA note it is not a very liquid market. Presumably most layers have withdrawn, remembering the party's recently-acquired reputation for insider trading.
  • Foxy said:

    Streeting plans further expansion, but it is pretty much limited to quick turnaround surgery in fit patients.

    Getting a quick MRI is no benefit if it's a 6 month wait to see a rheumatologist to discuss the findings. There are bottlenecks in the system to address, but it does tend to just shift the queue elsewhere.
    I disagree. Last summer my mother went into Kings Mill for pancreatitis. They worked out pretty quickly that it wasn't any of the really bad causes but for obvious reasons wanted to know what was causing it. They had to keep her in for a couple of days uintil the blood markers showed the epiosode was over but wanted to have an MRI to check for gall stones as the Ultrasound had not been clear. They would not send her home because it would have taken weeks to get her the MRi if she was out of hospital.

    So she waited in hospital, taking up a bed that others could have been using (and which was certainly needed) for an additional 4 days until they could get her the MRI. And she was not the only one. All because they had only one team capable of running the MRI who were already working a 14 hour days and a 7 day week.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    edited November 2024

    As the polling I posted earlier shows women also have a women problem.

    Do you personally hope that the United States elects a woman President of the United States in your lifetime?

    No

    Male 23%
    Female 22%
    As with all these questions it depends how the interviewee interprets them. Although the question is quite clear, how many of them thought 'Kamala Harris' as they heard the question and if they are Trump supporters a net 22 - 23% is not really that high.

    So for a percentage it may not have been an objection to a woman but an objection to a Democrat woman and I know that wasn't the question.
  • Sandpit said:

    HS2
    Heathrow’s third runway*
    Stonehenge Tunnel
    A9 dualling
    Hinckley Point

    * I still laugh my head off that Dubai Airport’s Terminal 3 was completed in less time than Heathrow T5’s planning inquiry. Same project scope, new buildings on an existing airfield site plus a couple of access roads. Some countries talk about doing stuff, while other countries actually do stuff.
    Exactly. Look how quickly China put in its train and road network.
  • I genuinly don't understand what Dan Neidle is saying.

    The average farm in the UK is 85 hectares - 210 acres. Agricultural land averages around £10K an acre. That is £2.1 million in lland value alone. Before you take into account a few hundred thousand on equipment, buildings, livestock etc.

    Most family farms wuld be caught by a £1 million cap. They are asset rich and cash poor because that is the nature of the business. It is a fecking ridiculous idea.
    That average is the mean average distorted by very large holdings.

    The median average is much lower.

    According to DEFRA 59% of English farms have less than 50 hectares.

    See Figure 1.4: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/agricultural-facts-england-regional-profiles/agricultural-facts-summary#:~:text=The average English farm size,vary considerably across England's regions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197
    MattW said:

    FPT: Not quite the same but "Hmmmm" comparison:


    The peak slave population in the USA was approximately 3,953,760 * in 1860.
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7716878/

    * Yes, they took a slave census.
    Well, obviously they need a slave census. Otherwise, how could you do the whole "2/3rds" thing.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,034

    Farmers aren't the brightest bulbs in the chandelier, I mean they thought Brexit would be a good idea despite all the evidence to the contrary.
    Not all of them, the NFU opposed Brexit as did Clarkson and most voters voted for Brexit anyway.

    Though if you are a farmer exporting asparagus to Australia Brexit may be beneficial
  • I genuinly don't understand what Dan Neidle is saying.

    The average farm in the UK is 85 hectares - 210 acres. Agricultural land averages around £10K an acre. That is £2.1 million in lland value alone. Before you take into account a few hundred thousand on equipment, buildings, livestock etc.

    Most family farms wuld be caught by a £1 million cap. They are asset rich and cash poor because that is the nature of the business. It is a fecking ridiculous idea.
    Yes, they will be forced to sell up and pocket their million+ quid. My heart bleeds.
  • Sandpit said:

    HS2
    Heathrow’s third runway*
    Stonehenge Tunnel
    A9 dualling
    Hinckley Point

    * I still laugh my head off that Dubai Airport’s Terminal 3 was completed in less time than Heathrow T5’s planning inquiry. Same project scope, new buildings on an existing airfield site plus a couple of access roads. Some countries talk about doing stuff, while other countries actually do stuff.
    How many properties did they have to destroy to build it and how many fucks did they give about the people concerned.

    I am afraid holding up a desert despot (with the trappings of elections but nothing else) as an exmple to follow is not exactly a compelling argument.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,734
    Sandpit said:

    HS2
    Heathrow’s third runway*
    Stonehenge Tunnel
    A9 dualling
    Hinckley Point

    * I still laugh my head off that Dubai Airport’s Terminal 3 was completed in less time than Heathrow T5’s planning inquiry. Same project scope, new buildings on an existing airfield site plus a couple of access roads. Some countries talk about doing stuff, while other countries actually do stuff.
    That's the thing - strategic project known location just get on building it.

    HS2 is a variation of that - let's adopt the French approach - it needs to go from here to here with these constraints. Here are your options - you as a local authority have 4 months to pick the one you want and we will implement it...

    Hinckley point is however completely insane - we trust the Koreans / French so let them use the existing proven design... Got to say it's why I like the mini reactors - here is a known design we can repeat multiple times...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I disagree. Last summer my mother went into Kings Mill for pancreatitis. They worked out pretty quickly that it wasn't any of the really bad causes but for obvious reasons wanted to know what was causing it. They had to keep her in for a couple of days uintil the blood markers showed the epiosode was over but wanted to have an MRI to check for gall stones as the Ultrasound had not been clear. They would not send her home because it would have taken weeks to get her the MRi if she was out of hospital.

    So she waited in hospital, taking up a bed that others could have been using (and which was certainly needed) for an additional 4 days until they could get her the MRI. And she was not the only one. All because they had only one team capable of running the MRI who were already working a 14 hour days and a 7 day week.
    That’s nuts, what do a couple of MRI operators cost, compared to the cost of keeping beds occupied for days because people are waiting for scans?
  • Seems like only five minutes since farmers were complaining they couldn't afford to buy land as the price was being pumped up by City-types trying to avoid IHT.

    Not just city types; a lot of 'our' land has been acquired by foreigners - an inevitable consequence of a perpetual balance of payments deficit. There are nations, not universally regarded as fascist dictatorships, who restrict foreign ownership of land because it's regarded as too important to buy and sell like bags of flour. But we, of course, are forever open for business. I have no qualms about foreign billionaires owning skyscrapers in the London docks but I'm less keen on them hoovering up the better half of Worcestershire just because it's there.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,734
    Sandpit said:

    That’s nuts, what do a couple of MRI operators cost, compared to the cost of keeping beds occupied for days because people are waiting for scans?
    As with many things - we don't train the people up and treat them like shite so there isn't the people willing to do the work at the best of times let alone the anti-social hours.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197
    a

    Yes, they will be forced to sell up and pocket their million+ quid. My heart bleeds.
    Well, either lots of farms will be bought up by companies (continuing the trend). Or quite a few lawyers will get rich building trusts etc.

    In either case the flow of tax money will rapidly cease.
  • That average is the mean average distorted by very large holdings.

    The median average is much lower.

    According to DEFRA 59% of English farms have less than 50 hectares.

    See Figure 1.4: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/agricultural-facts-england-regional-profiles/agricultural-facts-summary#:~:text=The average English farm size,vary considerably across England's regions.
    50 hectares is just over 120 acres, so assuming £10k per acre that means 59% are less than £1.2M: most more than £1M could still be correct, particularly when buildings etc are taken into account.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,416

    So what? It isn’t the governments job to handhold every failure to plan for the future
    WASPIS say hello.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • What a stupid fucking response. The whole point being we want farms to continue as viable businesses. We need farms and farmers. Unless of course you are one of those fuckwits who think the food in supermarkets is miraculously created out of thin air.
    Of course it isn't created out of thin air, there's a whole global supply chain.

    We should get our food from whomever is best placed to supply it. If British farmers, then great. If French, Spanish, Argentinian, American, Australian or anywhere else then great too.
  • That average is the mean average distorted by very large holdings.

    The median average is much lower.

    According to DEFRA 59% of English farms have less than 50 hectares.

    See Figure 1.4: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/agricultural-facts-england-regional-profiles/agricultural-facts-summary#:~:text=The average English farm size,vary considerably across England's regions.
    50 hectares is still 125ish acres. So still well over £1 million in land value alone without everything else.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197

    50 hectares is just over 120 acres, so assuming £10k per acre that means 59% are less than £1.2M: most more than £1M could still be correct, particularly when buildings etc are taken into account.
    Farm machinery is also quite expensive.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,179

    Not just city types; a lot of 'our' land has been acquired by foreigners - an inevitable consequence of a perpetual balance of payments deficit. There are nations, not universally regarded as fascist dictatorships, who restrict foreign ownership of land because it's regarded as too important to buy and sell like bags of flour. But we, of course, are forever open for business. I have no qualms about foreign billionaires owning skyscrapers in the London docks but I'm less keen on them hoovering up the better half of Worcestershire just because it's there.
    You should have a look at the Highlands. So many of the shooting estates in foreign ownership. But, as you say, this is the price we pay for buying more than we make.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,812

    The magical “cut spending” and “growth” which means fuck all without detailing what you’d cut and who and what the effects would be - exactly what you’re complaining about now in fact.

    You talk about magical NHS and public sector efficiency gains but why can’t your SME make similar gains?
    Most people here who think we should cut spending have repeatedly listed things we'd cut spending on. It's like listing Brexit freedoms we could benefit from, it just doesn't go into PB centrist brain. The next post they make will still be 'what are these mythical brexit freedoms???'.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197
    Sandpit said:

    That’s nuts, what do a couple of MRI operators cost, compared to the cost of keeping beds occupied for days because people are waiting for scans?
    Politician : If we hire two more nurses, I am Saving the NHS (everyone loves a nurse). If we hire two more MRI technicians, I won't be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,034

    I guess if you wanted to provide more relief for family farms that had been in the family for generations, you could provide £1m of relief per generation the farm has been in the family, perhaps capped at five generations.

    The other thing is that, if the change does reduce the use of agricultural land as an IHT dodge, and reduces agricultural land prices, then the value of farms will fall and fewer will be above the £1m threshold than at present.

    Lower land prices is good for genuine farmers looking to expand their farm.
    Yes you could easily amend the IHT rules so that there is an exemption for family farms that rises per generation in the family which would be far more sensible
  • Sandpit said:

    That’s nuts, what do a couple of MRI operators cost, compared to the cost of keeping beds occupied for days because people are waiting for scans?
    Yep. And there is another MRI scanner at Newark which doesn't get used that often as they don't have the staff for it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,622
    edited November 2024

    Is the differential turnout significantly different from previous elections? (genuine question - not sure where to look)
    That's my impression from a short Midas Touch video, which tend to be tough to find as their video feed is a firehose.

    Deep link to the relevant segment:
    https://youtu.be/PU_cCxAlh1s?t=101

    There's more if you scrub either way.

    If you go and look, there's a Politico analysis of early voter turnout.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    How many properties did they have to destroy to build it and how many fucks did they give about the people concerned.

    I am afraid holding up a desert despot (with the trappings of elections but nothing else) as an exmple to follow is not exactly a compelling argument.
    Except that all they were doing is building more buildings on an existing airfield, plus a couple of access roads. No properties destroyed.

    The UK’s longest ever planning enquiry was into building a new building on an existing airfield site, plus a couple of access roads. https://cms-lawnow.com/en/ealerts/1998/04/the-heathrow-terminal-5-inquiry-why-it-has-taken-so-long-and-the-importance-of-a-fifth-terminal
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,812
    edited November 2024
    viewcode said:

    Down with Proctivity!
    Up with proctology! (ouch)

    But Alanbrooke is right, NHS productivity is DOA.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,257
    edited November 2024

    What a stupid fucking response. The whole point being we want farms to continue as viable businesses. We need farms and farmers. Unless of course you are one of those fuckwits who think the food in supermarkets is miraculously created out of thin air.
    Technically, most of the mass of plants (and, therefore, by extension, ultimately animals) is created out of (normal density) air, is it not? :wink:

    Plus some rain of course.
  • Most people here who think we should cut spending have repeatedly listed things we'd cut spending on. It's like listing Brexit freedoms we could benefit from, it just doesn't go into PB centrist brain. The next post they make will still be 'what are these mythical brexit freedoms???'.
    Exactly, you've told everybody what they are and you're not going to waste energy by doing it again....


    Perhaps you could link to the previous post?
  • There's an interesting angle to the GOP and women.

    Take Musk. He has said statements like: a billion people should be living in the USA. Immigration (of the wrong people) is bad. Our birth rate is too low!

    There is only one way to reconcile these statements: that he wants the birth rate in the USA to increase massively, and that can only be done by a diminution of women's rights. We are already seeing this with the GOP's attempts (sadly, some successful) to reduce access to abortions and contraception.

    Too many people in the GOP see women as only baby-making machines.

    Musk taps into a near-bottomless well of misogyny in the tech bro culture. It's really quite chilling.
  • .

    50 hectares is still 125ish acres. So still well over £1 million in land value alone without everything else.
    Going on the absolute upper limit of that range, most won't be at the upper limit.

    And based on an average price that may be distorted by the same thing (I'm not sure on that) if it's a mean average then farmland with housing premiums on it that get sold will massively be distorting the average since housing adds 00s to the price of land given our completely broken planning system.

    Or we could look at the real data that actually gets recorded rather than multiplying mean averages together to pretend that's an average. As Neidle did.
  • Sandpit said:

    That quote is way out of context.

    https://x.com/endwokeness/status/1852225094724018480

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-liz-cheney-war-hawk-guns-pointed-115383936

    Former President Donald Trump has launched another attack on former Rep. Liz Cheney, calling the Republican former Wyoming congresswoman a “war hawk” and suggesting she might not be as willing to send troops to fight if she had guns pointed at her
    Great that Bone Spurs Don is so protective of the 'suckers' and 'losers' in uniform.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,761
    edited November 2024

    What a stupid fucking response. The whole point being we want farms to continue as viable businesses. We need farms and farmers. Unless of course you are one of those fuckwits who think the food in supermarkets is miraculously created out of thin air.
    Do you think the farmland is just going to vanish into thin air after it is sold? Of course not. It will still be farmed by somebody, and very likely in a more productive fashion.

    In the area where I grew up, on the edge of the city, the big local landowner has grown incredibly rich by selling chunks of his land for development. He spends his time down the local pub or jetting around the world. His son has spent his whole life racing and crashing cars. AKAIK, he has never done a day's work in his life, with his lifestyle funded by dad's cash and a bumper inheritance of farmland to look forward to. Meanwhile, most of the land is barely used, with just the odd field let out for grazing now and then. Why bother, when its value just keeps going up and junior will inherit the lot?
  • Selebian said:

    Technically, most of the mass of plants (and, therefore, by extension, ultimately animals) is created out of (normal density) air, is it not? :wink:

    Plus some rain of course.
    Don’t forget sunlight; easily done in the UK of course…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,034

    Of course it isn't created out of thin air, there's a whole global supply chain.

    We should get our food from whomever is best placed to supply it. If British farmers, then great. If French, Spanish, Argentinian, American, Australian or anywhere else then great too.
    Given higher import costs of food from Europe given Brexit and the Ukraine war not a good idea and meat from the Americas and Australia is often heavily chemical filled and less good quality than ours
This discussion has been closed.