Fuel duty freeze saves the richest quintile 2.96x as much as the lowest quintile. If you want a cost-effective way to help poor people out with a tax cut, this ain't it.
A better metric would be fraction of disposable income spent on petrol.
A better policy would be to just give £3 billion to poor people. That's it's a higher proportion of their disposable income is a function of them being on low incomes - it's the same with everything else.
Yes, I noticed that. I know it's a 'model' but that doesn't feel right to me.
On reflection nor me!
The model doesn't have to be particularly wrong for the probability of a Harris pop vote win and electoral college loss to increase substantially. As good as 538 is it's still only a model.
I think they were talking about the exact opposite (H EC win, PV loss)
Something Eek spoke about a while ago. Seems to be gathering pace.
Now one in 10 people on Ferryhill, Durham, have been dumped up here by London councils. Landlords are happy but these people, often with extra needs, become a burden on our local council and council tax payers. If this is going to happen then surely the council cleansing these people should pay for their services via a cash transfer to the receiving council.
Fuel duty freeze saves the richest quintile 2.96x as much as the lowest quintile. If you want a cost-effective way to help poor people out with a tax cut, this ain't it.
A better metric would be fraction of disposable income spent on petrol.
A better policy would be to just give £3 billion to poor people. That's it's a higher proportion of their disposable income is a function of them being on low incomes - it's the same with everything else.
We were talking about taxes.
Do you accept now that fuel duty is one of the most regressive taxes taking a considerably higher share of poor people's incomes than wealthier people's incomes?
I'd love to know any other tax(es) that see the poorest paying such a higher percentage of income than the wealthiest do than fuel duty.
Tobacco duty is probably the only one that compares, and that at least is a choice and not something people need to buy to get to work.
In 2021 the LE results were in terms of NEV Lab 29%, Con 36%, LDs 17%. So those results from local by elections suggest both Labour and the Tories will lose county council seats next year with the LDs and Reform and Greens making gains (Reform are likely to stand more candidates than they have in local by elections too)
Yes, I noticed that. I know it's a 'model' but that doesn't feel right to me.
On reflection nor me!
The model doesn't have to be particularly wrong for the probability of a Harris pop vote win and electoral college loss to increase substantially. As good as 538 is it's still only a model.
I think they were talking about the exact opposite (H EC win, PV loss)
In 2021 the LE results were in terms of NEV Lab 29%, Con 36%, LDs 17%. So those results from local by elections suggest both Labour and the Tories will lose county council seats next year with the LDs and Reform and Greens making gains (Reform are likely to stand more candidates than they have in local by elections too)
Fuel duty freeze saves the richest quintile 2.96x as much as the lowest quintile. If you want a cost-effective way to help poor people out with a tax cut, this ain't it.
From someone leaning left it was a pretty crap budget. Crap, but not from the same perspective as that of the PB glitterati.
You could have bought 600,000 cars at £5k each and given them to poor families in rural areas for £3 billion. That's 10% of all car-less households in England and Wales.
The survey, conducted by the polling agency Gallup Korea, showed that the positive assessment of Yoon's performance fell 1 percentage point from the previous week, while his negative assessment reached an all-time high of 72 percent, up 2 percent from a week earlier...
Fuel duty freeze saves the richest quintile 2.96x as much as the lowest quintile. If you want a cost-effective way to help poor people out with a tax cut, this ain't it.
From someone leaning left it was a pretty crap budget. Crap, but not from the same perspective as that of the PB glitterati.
You could have bought 600,000 cars at £5k each and given them to poor families in rural areas for £3 billion. That's 10% of all car-less households in England and Wales.
That doesn't help the 25% of adults who do not have, or cannot have, a driving license.
That imo is why equality is a, or even the, core issue around making sure that there are realistic, safe, practical alternatives to motor vehicles everywhere,
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4964265-kamala-harris-ad-julia-roberts/ A Harris-Walz campaign ad voiced by actor Julia Roberts encourages women to vote for Vice President Harris in the presidential election, even if their husbands are backing former President Trump. The Roberts ad, put out by Vote Common Good, also alludes to abortion rights, which is seen as a pivotal issue in a race that has seen Trump with big polling leads among male voters and Harris with a large lead among female voters. “In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want. And no one will ever know,” Roberts says in the ad as a woman on screen meets up with her husband after casting her ballot for Harris. The voter winks at a fellow female voter as her husband asks if she made the “right choice.” Republicans have responded to the video with outrage, with some claiming that a wife lying about her vote is as bad as an affair. “If I found out Emma was going to the voting booth and pulling the lever for Harris, that’s the same thing as having an affair,” Fox News host (and confessed adulterer) Jesse Watters said on air Wednesday...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4964265-kamala-harris-ad-julia-roberts/ A Harris-Walz campaign ad voiced by actor Julia Roberts encourages women to vote for Vice President Harris in the presidential election, even if their husbands are backing former President Trump. The Roberts ad, put out by Vote Common Good, also alludes to abortion rights, which is seen as a pivotal issue in a race that has seen Trump with big polling leads among male voters and Harris with a large lead among female voters. “In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want. And no one will ever know,” Roberts says in the ad as a woman on screen meets up with her husband after casting her ballot for Harris. The voter winks at a fellow female voter as her husband asks if she made the “right choice.” Republicans have responded to the video with outrage, with some claiming that a wife lying about her vote is as bad as an affair. “If I found out Emma was going to the voting booth and pulling the lever for Harris, that’s the same thing as having an affair,” Fox News host (and confessed adulterer) Jesse Watters said on air Wednesday...
If the Dems win is it quick and certain that abortion rules in the States will revert back to how they were? What is the mechanism?
In 2021 the LE results were in terms of NEV Lab 29%, Con 36%, LDs 17%. So those results from local by elections suggest both Labour and the Tories will lose county council seats next year with the LDs and Reform and Greens making gains (Reform are likely to stand more candidates than they have in local by elections too)
Fuel duty freeze saves the richest quintile 2.96x as much as the lowest quintile. If you want a cost-effective way to help poor people out with a tax cut, this ain't it.
From someone leaning left it was a pretty crap budget. Crap, but not from the same perspective as that of the PB glitterati.
You could have bought 600,000 cars at £5k each and given them to poor families in rural areas for £3 billion. That's 10% of all car-less households in England and Wales.
That doesn't help the 25% of adults who do not have, or cannot have, a driving license.
That imo is why equality is a, or even the, core issue around making sure that there are realistic, safe, practical alternatives to motor vehicles everywhere,
Round here the cost of driving lessons is one reason some people don't drive. £30 an hour is a lot when you are on £8.60 an hour...
Something Eek spoke about a while ago. Seems to be gathering pace.
Now one in 10 people on Ferryhill, Durham, have been dumped up here by London councils. Landlords are happy but these people, often with extra needs, become a burden on our local council and council tax payers. If this is going to happen then surely the council cleansing these people should pay for their services via a cash transfer to the receiving council.
Also it's Ferryhill - it's a very small town 10,000 with poor communication links - it's got an hourly bus service to Durham / Darlington and that's about it..
I’d guess the landlords of these properties will be happy. That one has a two year lease. Usually the council will make good any damage at the end of the tenancy too.
Ferryhill has seen better days. God knows what these people are supposed to do. My Stepdads niece took on a pub there a few years back with a mate. Didn’t last long.
In 2021 the LE results were in terms of NEV Lab 29%, Con 36%, LDs 17%. So those results from local by elections suggest both Labour and the Tories will lose county council seats next year with the LDs and Reform and Greens making gains (Reform are likely to stand more candidates than they have in local by elections too)
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4964265-kamala-harris-ad-julia-roberts/ A Harris-Walz campaign ad voiced by actor Julia Roberts encourages women to vote for Vice President Harris in the presidential election, even if their husbands are backing former President Trump. The Roberts ad, put out by Vote Common Good, also alludes to abortion rights, which is seen as a pivotal issue in a race that has seen Trump with big polling leads among male voters and Harris with a large lead among female voters. “In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want. And no one will ever know,” Roberts says in the ad as a woman on screen meets up with her husband after casting her ballot for Harris. The voter winks at a fellow female voter as her husband asks if she made the “right choice.” Republicans have responded to the video with outrage, with some claiming that a wife lying about her vote is as bad as an affair. “If I found out Emma was going to the voting booth and pulling the lever for Harris, that’s the same thing as having an affair,” Fox News host (and confessed adulterer) Jesse Watters said on air Wednesday...
If the Dems win is it quick and certain that abortion rules in the States will revert back to how they were? What is the mechanism?
No, it won't. Due to the overturn of Roe vs Wade by the Supreme Court, there is no federal level right to abortion. It's up to individual states.
Nor can it be restored in the foreseeable future.
States controlled by anti-abortion politicians (nearly all republicans) are currently trying to attack abortion in *other* states, via lawfare, however.
Fuel duty freeze saves the richest quintile 2.96x as much as the lowest quintile. If you want a cost-effective way to help poor people out with a tax cut, this ain't it.
From someone leaning left it was a pretty crap budget. Crap, but not from the same perspective as that of the PB glitterati.
You could have bought 600,000 cars at £5k each and given them to poor families in rural areas for £3 billion. That's 10% of all car-less households in England and Wales.
That doesn't help the 25% of adults who do not have, or cannot have, a driving license.
That imo is why equality is a, or even the, core issue around making sure that there are realistic, safe, practical alternatives to motor vehicles everywhere,
Absolutely. I'm just trying to help someone who can't see past the end of their bonnet why the policy is a misuse of funds, particularly when there are so many great long-term investment opportunities that could increase accessibility for poor people and those in rural areas.
Fuel duty freeze saves the richest quintile 2.96x as much as the lowest quintile. If you want a cost-effective way to help poor people out with a tax cut, this ain't it.
From someone leaning left it was a pretty crap budget. Crap, but not from the same perspective as that of the PB glitterati.
You could have bought 600,000 cars at £5k each and given them to poor families in rural areas for £3 billion. That's 10% of all car-less households in England and Wales.
That doesn't help the 25% of adults who do not have, or cannot have, a driving license.
That imo is why equality is a, or even the, core issue around making sure that there are realistic, safe, practical alternatives to motor vehicles everywhere,
How many of those cannot have a license, e.g. on medical grounds? I've a lot of sympathy for them, but I would be surprised if it's as much as 1%.
The rest - their choice, it's a free world, why should we spend a fortune rather than just encouraging them to get licenses?
Probably be cheaper in a lot of cases to bin rural bus routes that mostly shift round fresh air and provide the genuinely unable to drive with taxis as required.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4964265-kamala-harris-ad-julia-roberts/ A Harris-Walz campaign ad voiced by actor Julia Roberts encourages women to vote for Vice President Harris in the presidential election, even if their husbands are backing former President Trump. The Roberts ad, put out by Vote Common Good, also alludes to abortion rights, which is seen as a pivotal issue in a race that has seen Trump with big polling leads among male voters and Harris with a large lead among female voters. “In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want. And no one will ever know,” Roberts says in the ad as a woman on screen meets up with her husband after casting her ballot for Harris. The voter winks at a fellow female voter as her husband asks if she made the “right choice.” Republicans have responded to the video with outrage, with some claiming that a wife lying about her vote is as bad as an affair. “If I found out Emma was going to the voting booth and pulling the lever for Harris, that’s the same thing as having an affair,” Fox News host (and confessed adulterer) Jesse Watters said on air Wednesday...
They're tight as a drum these MAGAs. Need to lighten up a bit. Get a SoH.
Something Eek spoke about a while ago. Seems to be gathering pace.
Now one in 10 people on Ferryhill, Durham, have been dumped up here by London councils. Landlords are happy but these people, often with extra needs, become a burden on our local council and council tax payers. If this is going to happen then surely the council cleansing these people should pay for their services via a cash transfer to the receiving council.
It's just an old mining town / village between Durham and Darlington - the old (original) A1 runs through a cutting that splits the town in 2.
I can think of far worse places to be in Durham than Ferryhill - but County Durham is the same everywhere outside of the large towns it's communities built around a pit that haven't seen much if any investment since the mines were closed down.
Huge day today anyway. 1st Nov is when I switch from frozen peas to mushy.
Me too. Received a fantastic job offer today.
I'm going to resign next week.
Piece of advice. Don't do a Shouting Resignation.
I knew a very stupid lady who did that. Complete with calling out management at her leaving do and all the rest.
A couple of years later she tried to get a job with another part of the same multinational company. And discovered that her internal HR file had had "Do not employ under any circumstance" added to it.
It's not worth it. Just walk to the door politely.
Huge day today anyway. 1st Nov is when I switch from frozen peas to mushy.
Is that when your freezer gets turned off?
Lol. No, it's my rite of passage into winter. Also switch lager for bitter. I like to have these rituals to give shape to things. It can all be a bit daunting otherwise.
Huge day today anyway. 1st Nov is when I switch from frozen peas to mushy.
Me too. Received a fantastic job offer today.
I'm going to resign next week.
Piece of advice. Don't do a Shouting Resignation.
I knew a very stupid lady who did that. Complete with calling out management at her leaving do and all the rest.
A couple of years later she tried to get a job with another part of the same multinational company. And discovered that her internal HR file had had "Do not employ under any circumstance" added to it.
It's not worth it. Just walk to the door politely.
Thanks, that's good advice.
And, yes, I will be professional. The reality is I'm angry about a few things but also wise enough to know that's never a good idea.
Re farming what happens if those inheriting land can’t raise the IHT liability ?
It’s not like property which would generally be easier to sell .
Farmland is easy enough to sell. Phone the local auctioneers, cash lands in the bank about a month later.
There are lots of reasons why this policy is bad, but this isn't one.
Scenario: Farm is valued at 10k/acre for inheritance tax purposes. Farm is lets say 300 acres, so the bill is £200k (We'll assume the lad owns all the equipment and/or it's all depreciated for the sake of argument). The old Farmer's son sticks 20 acres up for sale, and only gets 5k/acre. A bit extreme, but just putting it out there for the sake of argument... Does the farm now get revalued to 1.5 million so the 200k isn't due ?
If the land is sold in open auction that is the value. It is really a bad idea but totally expected. It will also trash other businesses where succession is important. My ex MP says the first suicide has happened, not sure if that is true. We really have a vile incompetent government with a vile incompetent Prime Minister. But we knew that.
We seem to have a lot of press writing half baked incorrect stories to scare farmers.
It's been badly announced but I don't actually think there are many people at all who understand what the changes are yet alone the actual impact it has on people.
There is a story going around (no idea if it's true) on a supposed farmers' fb page describing a suicide which is getting everyone enraged.
I think farmers generally (can) have a very rough time and the suicide rate is very high. That said, governments of the past decades have prioritised mass market affordability of farm produce over farmers' well-being and it is difficult to argue that that has been the wrong policy.
Also it has long been known that buying agricultural land is a good tax avoidance wheeze but, a situation affecting 0.0n% of the farmers, still less of the population is not I believe good grounds for policy-making.
Removing a good tax avoidance wheeze is something that a sensible Government should be doing.
The suicide could be caused by a lot of things with this being the final one of a lot of straws. Farmer suicide is scarily high anyway as it's a lonely business that can feeling never ending..
Pity they don't go after the real tax dodgers or the British tax havens , bit too close to home for them.
Huge day today anyway. 1st Nov is when I switch from frozen peas to mushy.
Me too. Received a fantastic job offer today.
I'm going to resign next week.
Piece of advice. Don't do a Shouting Resignation.
I knew a very stupid lady who did that. Complete with calling out management at her leaving do and all the rest.
A couple of years later she tried to get a job with another part of the same multinational company. And discovered that her internal HR file had had "Do not employ under any circumstance" added to it.
It's not worth it. Just walk to the door politely.
Thanks, that's good advice.
And, yes, I will be professional. The reality is I'm angry about a few things but also wise enough to know that's never a good idea.
Revenge is a dish best *observed* cold and from a distance.
Huge day today anyway. 1st Nov is when I switch from frozen peas to mushy.
Me too. Received a fantastic job offer today.
I'm going to resign next week.
Piece of advice. Don't do a Shouting Resignation.
I knew a very stupid lady who did that. Complete with calling out management at her leaving do and all the rest.
A couple of years later she tried to get a job with another part of the same multinational company. And discovered that her internal HR file had had "Do not employ under any circumstance" added to it.
It's not worth it. Just walk to the door politely.
Not only that you never know when you’ll come across them again in your career. People move all the time.
Huge day today anyway. 1st Nov is when I switch from frozen peas to mushy.
Me too. Received a fantastic job offer today.
I'm going to resign next week.
Piece of advice. Don't do a Shouting Resignation.
I knew a very stupid lady who did that. Complete with calling out management at her leaving do and all the rest.
A couple of years later she tried to get a job with another part of the same multinational company. And discovered that her internal HR file had had "Do not employ under any circumstance" added to it.
It's not worth it. Just walk to the door politely.
Not only that you never know when you’ll come across them again in your career. People move all the time.
Exactly. If you don't waste your time making enemies.....
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4964265-kamala-harris-ad-julia-roberts/ A Harris-Walz campaign ad voiced by actor Julia Roberts encourages women to vote for Vice President Harris in the presidential election, even if their husbands are backing former President Trump. The Roberts ad, put out by Vote Common Good, also alludes to abortion rights, which is seen as a pivotal issue in a race that has seen Trump with big polling leads among male voters and Harris with a large lead among female voters. “In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want. And no one will ever know,” Roberts says in the ad as a woman on screen meets up with her husband after casting her ballot for Harris. The voter winks at a fellow female voter as her husband asks if she made the “right choice.” Republicans have responded to the video with outrage, with some claiming that a wife lying about her vote is as bad as an affair. “If I found out Emma was going to the voting booth and pulling the lever for Harris, that’s the same thing as having an affair,” Fox News host (and confessed adulterer) Jesse Watters said on air Wednesday...
My brain hurts even trying to imagine thinking that my partner had to vote the same way as me.
Huge day today anyway. 1st Nov is when I switch from frozen peas to mushy.
Me too. Received a fantastic job offer today.
I'm going to resign next week.
You're switching to mushy peas in celebration ??
Seriously, though, congrats. I know you've not been particularly happy in your job for quite some time.
Thanks. Yes, I hated it.
Good news then- hope it works out.
I know it's the squeaky wheels we hear from, but it does bother me how many people are made deeply fed up by their work. OK, if it were too much fun, it wouldn't be work and they wouldn't pay us to do it... But I'm sure that there's a better, less alienating, balance than the current one. Not sure I can describe it, or explain how to make it happen.
(Me, the main bit is fine, especially when management can't find my end of the corridor. One of the side bits is good, and the other project was ace until the last government nixed the funding for it.)
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4964265-kamala-harris-ad-julia-roberts/ A Harris-Walz campaign ad voiced by actor Julia Roberts encourages women to vote for Vice President Harris in the presidential election, even if their husbands are backing former President Trump. The Roberts ad, put out by Vote Common Good, also alludes to abortion rights, which is seen as a pivotal issue in a race that has seen Trump with big polling leads among male voters and Harris with a large lead among female voters. “In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want. And no one will ever know,” Roberts says in the ad as a woman on screen meets up with her husband after casting her ballot for Harris. The voter winks at a fellow female voter as her husband asks if she made the “right choice.” Republicans have responded to the video with outrage, with some claiming that a wife lying about her vote is as bad as an affair. “If I found out Emma was going to the voting booth and pulling the lever for Harris, that’s the same thing as having an affair,” Fox News host (and confessed adulterer) Jesse Watters said on air Wednesday...
If the Dems win is it quick and certain that abortion rules in the States will revert back to how they were? What is the mechanism?
No, it won't. Due to the overturn of Roe vs Wade by the Supreme Court, there is no federal level right to abortion. It's up to individual states.
Nor can it be restored in the foreseeable future.
States controlled by anti-abortion politicians (nearly all republicans) are currently trying to attack abortion in *other* states, via lawfare, however.
If Trump gets in, look to see that stuff spread.
I wonder how many Dem voters think if Harris wins it all changes back?
Fuel duty freeze saves the richest quintile 2.96x as much as the lowest quintile. If you want a cost-effective way to help poor people out with a tax cut, this ain't it.
Even if that were correct (it is not!) now change that to percentage of income. 🤦♂️
1/3rd in cash terms is a considerably higher percentage of a poor persons income than it is a wealthier person's income.
Progressive/regressive is as a percentage of income and so using your own data it is exceptionally regressive. VAT, income tax etc don't see the poorest pay 1/3rd of what the richest do.
However you didn't quote cost, you quoted mileage. Mileage is meaningless twaddle since the wealthier can afford zero-fuel or more fuel-efficient vehicles.
The other problem with this chart is that it misses the urban - rural split. The urban poor travel by public transport. The rural poor travel by car.
1. Anti-Trump GOPers are holding their nose and voting for Trump; 2. Low-propensity voters are coming out for Trump; 3. The GOTV operation by pro-GOP groups is exceptionally strong.
3 seems like a uniquely Arizona thing but I don't see why 1 + 2 should be. Which raises the questions whether both the appeal to 'moderate' Republicans is being wasted and the polls are missing low propensity voters.
On that point, when you read the article - and it is by someone with no agenda and who knows Arizona politics - this doesn't feel like a state that is tied, more one that Trump may win by several percentage points.
Fuel duty freeze saves the richest quintile 2.96x as much as the lowest quintile. If you want a cost-effective way to help poor people out with a tax cut, this ain't it.
Even if that were correct (it is not!) now change that to percentage of income. 🤦♂️
1/3rd in cash terms is a considerably higher percentage of a poor persons income than it is a wealthier person's income.
Progressive/regressive is as a percentage of income and so using your own data it is exceptionally regressive. VAT, income tax etc don't see the poorest pay 1/3rd of what the richest do.
However you didn't quote cost, you quoted mileage. Mileage is meaningless twaddle since the wealthier can afford zero-fuel or more fuel-efficient vehicles.
The other problem with this chart is that it misses the urban - rural split. The urban poor travel by public transport. The rural poor travel by car.
I'd be surprised if poor people in rural areas have higher mileage than richer people, mainly because car ownership is surprisingly low in rural areas. That might be balanced somewhat by WFH.
But yes, my ideal motoring policy would make it much cheaper for poor people in rural areas to buy and run a car. If the cut in fuel duty applied only to the fuel station in Kinlochbervie...
Fuel duty freeze saves the richest quintile 2.96x as much as the lowest quintile. If you want a cost-effective way to help poor people out with a tax cut, this ain't it.
Even if that were correct (it is not!) now change that to percentage of income. 🤦♂️
1/3rd in cash terms is a considerably higher percentage of a poor persons income than it is a wealthier person's income.
Progressive/regressive is as a percentage of income and so using your own data it is exceptionally regressive. VAT, income tax etc don't see the poorest pay 1/3rd of what the richest do.
However you didn't quote cost, you quoted mileage. Mileage is meaningless twaddle since the wealthier can afford zero-fuel or more fuel-efficient vehicles.
The other problem with this chart is that it misses the urban - rural split. The urban poor travel by public transport. The rural poor travel by car.
Only if they have a car - witness the discussion between me and Taz where Londoners are being dumped in Ferryhill or similar villages without a car because they've never needed one before.
At least Ferryhill is on the main bus route many villages where Londoners are being dumped aren't...
1. Anti-Trump GOPers are holding their nose and voting for Trump; 2. Low-propensity voters are coming out for Trump; 3. The GOTV operation by pro-GOP groups is exceptionally strong.
3 seems like a uniquely Arizona thing but I don't see why 1 + 2 should be. Which raises the questions whether both the appeal to 'moderate' Republicans is being wasted and the polls are missing low propensity voters.
On that point, when you read the article - and it is by someone with no agenda and who knows Arizona politics - this doesn't feel like a state that is tied, more one that Trump may win by several percentage points.
The jobs data won't move anything. Nor will the consequent market rally due to higher chance of rate cuts. It's locked down now and all about who votes.
AZ and NV are perhaps trending red. OTOH the rust belt states might be going the other way. An interesting point from the early/mail voting is on the gender split. Women are seriously outvoting men in most of the swing states but this is not the case in NV/AZ.
They are the 2 battleground states where I make Trump a fav to win.
A reminder: The US election is also for the House and Senate (And, literally thousands of state and local offices).
As of now, I think it likely that the Republicans will take control of the Senate, and that the odds slightly favor the Democrats taking control of the House. (For the record, I'm in favor of both.)
If both those things happen, whoever wins the presidency will be severely limited in how many of their promises they can keep.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4964265-kamala-harris-ad-julia-roberts/ A Harris-Walz campaign ad voiced by actor Julia Roberts encourages women to vote for Vice President Harris in the presidential election, even if their husbands are backing former President Trump. The Roberts ad, put out by Vote Common Good, also alludes to abortion rights, which is seen as a pivotal issue in a race that has seen Trump with big polling leads among male voters and Harris with a large lead among female voters. “In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want. And no one will ever know,” Roberts says in the ad as a woman on screen meets up with her husband after casting her ballot for Harris. The voter winks at a fellow female voter as her husband asks if she made the “right choice.” Republicans have responded to the video with outrage, with some claiming that a wife lying about her vote is as bad as an affair. “If I found out Emma was going to the voting booth and pulling the lever for Harris, that’s the same thing as having an affair,” Fox News host (and confessed adulterer) Jesse Watters said on air Wednesday...
What I find remarkable about this post is: a) Jesse Watters is married and b) it is to human/woman.
Fuel duty freeze saves the richest quintile 2.96x as much as the lowest quintile. If you want a cost-effective way to help poor people out with a tax cut, this ain't it.
From someone leaning left it was a pretty crap budget. Crap, but not from the same perspective as that of the PB glitterati.
You could have bought 600,000 cars at £5k each and given them to poor families in rural areas for £3 billion. That's 10% of all car-less households in England and Wales.
That doesn't help the 25% of adults who do not have, or cannot have, a driving license.
That imo is why equality is a, or even the, core issue around making sure that there are realistic, safe, practical alternatives to motor vehicles everywhere,
How many of those cannot have a license, e.g. on medical grounds? I've a lot of sympathy for them, but I would be surprised if it's as much as 1%.
The rest - their choice, it's a free world, why should we spend a fortune rather than just encouraging them to get licenses?
Probably be cheaper in a lot of cases to bin rural bus routes that mostly shift round fresh air and provide the genuinely unable to drive with taxis as required.
It's a lot more than 1% for medical reasons, I think, though I don't know where to get a researched total number. It would need to include people such as my former landlord in London who knew he had always had an eye condition that [prevented driving, and never tried to get one.
1% of population is 670K of people, or restrict it to age groups 18 and above and 1% is around 500k from 51million. Total drivers licences in issue are 41.5 million, so 1% of that 410k.
Drivers licences revoked for medical reasons in the decade 2014 to 2024 are 650k, so 65k per annum. And the total numbers of medically revoked licences will be several times that - depending how many get them back.
I think the bigger question is perhaps your focus on driving at the centre.
We have talked about people who cannot drive for medical reasons. But those who choose not to drive are equally lawful users of the public highway and have equal rights / privileges to those who choose to use a motor vehicle.
We have 41.5 million driving licences in issue, and that means we have 26 million people who do not have a driving licence who need equal consideration.
That 26 million comprise non-drivers for medical reasons, non-drivers by choice, non-drivers by circumstance eg can't afford to, almost everyone under 17, elderly for whatever reason, and any other categories.
That is just under 40% who need to be considered.
The fairly stark stats in the budgets are that there was about £7 billion of extra expenditure for vehicle drivers, and £100m for public highways users walking, wheeling or cycling. That is without looking at existing budgets.
Re farming what happens if those inheriting land can’t raise the IHT liability ?
It’s not like property which would generally be easier to sell .
Farmland is easy enough to sell. Phone the local auctioneers, cash lands in the bank about a month later.
There are lots of reasons why this policy is bad, but this isn't one.
Scenario: Farm is valued at 10k/acre for inheritance tax purposes. Farm is lets say 300 acres, so the bill is £200k (We'll assume the lad owns all the equipment and/or it's all depreciated for the sake of argument). The old Farmer's son sticks 20 acres up for sale, and only gets 5k/acre. A bit extreme, but just putting it out there for the sake of argument... Does the farm now get revalued to 1.5 million so the 200k isn't due ?
If the land is sold in open auction that is the value. It is really a bad idea but totally expected. It will also trash other businesses where succession is important. My ex MP says the first suicide has happened, not sure if that is true. We really have a vile incompetent government with a vile incompetent Prime Minister. But we knew that.
We seem to have a lot of press writing half baked incorrect stories to scare farmers.
It's been badly announced but I don't actually think there are many people at all who understand what the changes are yet alone the actual impact it has on people.
There is a story going around (no idea if it's true) on a supposed farmers' fb page describing a suicide which is getting everyone enraged.
I think farmers generally (can) have a very rough time and the suicide rate is very high. That said, governments of the past decades have prioritised mass market affordability of farm produce over farmers' well-being and it is difficult to argue that that has been the wrong policy.
Also it has long been known that buying agricultural land is a good tax avoidance wheeze but, a situation affecting 0.0n% of the farmers, still less of the population is not I believe good grounds for policy-making.
Removing a good tax avoidance wheeze is something that a sensible Government should be doing.
The suicide could be caused by a lot of things with this being the final one of a lot of straws. Farmer suicide is scarily high anyway as it's a lonely business that can feeling never ending..
I don't doubt but it is getting everyone agitated. Plus ISAs are a good tax avoidance wheeze.
An ISA is not tax avoidance.
“Tax avoidance is bending the rules of the tax system to gain a tax advantage, that parliament never intended.” (HMRC, 2015)
"It involves operating within the letter, but not the spirit, of the law".
So in other words it is perfectly legal and this description is designed a) to give The State more power over you at their sole discretion and whim; and b) scare you. Which latter it appears to have done.
Or an understandable reaction by the revenue to rich people's accountants regularly taking the piss.
Nothing in that link (which both Mighty Alex and I used) says anything about it not being legal.
By "do not work" I presume they mean they aren't tax avoidance but are, rather, illegal.
You've clearly not followed all those stories about tax advisers who sold tax avoidance schemes as 'perfectly legal', only for their clients to loses court cases against HMRC... and have to repay millions ?
The guidance was intended to prevent more such embarrassments. Accountants (reputable ones, at least) now tend to run such schemes by the revenue, before marketing them to innocent punters.
Tax avoidance is legal; tax evasion is illegal. Sometimes it is not clear which a particular scheme is because it's pushing the line on something where the law is unclear or open to interpretation. That lack of clarity does not imply legality.
The HMRC website is saying that some schemes are legal but not "within the spirit of the law". Whatever tf that means, legally.
It means they're currently legal but HMRC would prefer it if they weren't, so may well be targets for future legislation and regulation.
Comments
Maybe I should forget trying to get a mortgage and just spend my deposit on this:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/154171832
Do you accept now that fuel duty is one of the most regressive taxes taking a considerably higher share of poor people's incomes than wealthier people's incomes?
I'd love to know any other tax(es) that see the poorest paying such a higher percentage of income than the wealthiest do than fuel duty.
Tobacco duty is probably the only one that compares, and that at least is a choice and not something people need to buy to get to work.
OK lets vote for them.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=385452
..President Yoon Suk Yeol's approval rating slid to 19 percent, marking its lowest level since he took office in May 2022, a poll showed Friday.
The survey, conducted by the polling agency Gallup Korea, showed that the positive assessment of Yoon's performance fell 1 percentage point from the previous week, while his negative assessment reached an all-time high of 72 percent, up 2 percent from a week earlier...
That imo is why equality is a, or even the, core issue around making sure that there are realistic, safe, practical alternatives to motor vehicles everywhere,
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4964265-kamala-harris-ad-julia-roberts/
A Harris-Walz campaign ad voiced by actor Julia Roberts encourages women to vote for Vice President Harris in the presidential election, even if their husbands are backing former President Trump.
The Roberts ad, put out by Vote Common Good, also alludes to abortion rights, which is seen as a pivotal issue in a race that has seen Trump with big polling leads among male voters and Harris with a large lead among female voters.
“In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want. And no one will ever know,” Roberts says in the ad as a woman on screen meets up with her husband after casting her ballot for Harris.
The voter winks at a fellow female voter as her husband asks if she made the “right choice.”
Republicans have responded to the video with outrage, with some claiming that a wife lying about her vote is as bad as an affair.
“If I found out Emma was going to the voting booth and pulling the lever for Harris, that’s the same thing as having an affair,” Fox News host (and confessed adulterer) Jesse Watters said on air Wednesday...
I'm going to resign next week.
Seriously, though, congrats. I know you've not been particularly happy in your job for quite some time.
UK based or abroad?
Going Oopmarket.
Ferryhill has seen better days. God knows what these people are supposed to do. My Stepdads niece took on a pub there a few years back with a mate. Didn’t last long.
Good luck on your new position. Will you need the services of an overpaid Aslef driver or a Dreamliner pilot to get there?
They focus on inclusion, but not DEI as a creed - which comes with its own tenets.
Nor can it be restored in the foreseeable future.
States controlled by anti-abortion politicians (nearly all republicans) are currently trying to attack abortion in *other* states, via lawfare, however.
If Trump gets in, look to see that stuff spread.
The rest - their choice, it's a free world, why should we spend a fortune rather than just encouraging them to get licenses?
Probably be cheaper in a lot of cases to bin rural bus routes that mostly shift round fresh air and provide the genuinely unable to drive with taxis as required.
I can think of far worse places to be in Durham than Ferryhill - but County Durham is the same everywhere outside of the large towns it's communities built around a pit that haven't seen much if any investment since the mines were closed down.
I knew a very stupid lady who did that. Complete with calling out management at her leaving do and all the rest.
A couple of years later she tried to get a job with another part of the same multinational company. And discovered that her internal HR file had had "Do not employ under any circumstance" added to it.
It's not worth it. Just walk to the door politely.
I’m retiring shortly. Hate where I work now. Didn’t used to hate it. Change is good.
And, yes, I will be professional. The reality is I'm angry about a few things but also wise enough to know that's never a good idea.
The battle at the baseball ground
https://x.com/1968tv/status/1852242191642505530?s=61
I know it's the squeaky wheels we hear from, but it does bother me how many people are made deeply fed up by their work. OK, if it were too much fun, it wouldn't be work and they wouldn't pay us to do it... But I'm sure that there's a better, less alienating, balance than the current one. Not sure I can describe it, or explain how to make it happen.
(Me, the main bit is fine, especially when management can't find my end of the corridor. One of the side bits is good, and the other project was ace until the last government nixed the funding for it.)
https://x.com/edwest/status/1852338110324998211?s=61
I only listen to a couple.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/why-arizona-is-looking-trumpier-in-2024/ar-AA1ti6mL?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Now, there are a couple of reasons given namely:
1. Anti-Trump GOPers are holding their nose and voting for Trump;
2. Low-propensity voters are coming out for Trump;
3. The GOTV operation by pro-GOP groups is exceptionally strong.
3 seems like a uniquely Arizona thing but I don't see why 1 + 2 should be. Which raises the questions whether both the appeal to 'moderate' Republicans is being wasted and the polls are missing low propensity voters.
On that point, when you read the article - and it is by someone with no agenda and who knows Arizona politics - this doesn't feel like a state that is tied, more one that Trump may win by several percentage points.
DYOR
PS and FYI - US jobs data looks very weak for Sep so poor timing: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/us-jobs-report-october-2024.html
Franny Lee was one tough cookie.
NEW THREAD
👀 BREAKING: This ad, when tested, moves under-30-men by 2+ points away from Donald Trump.
That’s HUGE MOVEMENT!
Please share widely!
Guys don’t want to be controlled either. #MAGAInYourSheets
https://x.com/NickKnudsenUS/status/1852025474228113904
But yes, my ideal motoring policy would make it much cheaper for poor people in rural areas to buy and run a car. If the cut in fuel duty applied only to the fuel station in Kinlochbervie...
At least Ferryhill is on the main bus route many villages where Londoners are being dumped aren't...
AZ and NV are perhaps trending red. OTOH the rust belt states might be going the other way. An interesting point from the early/mail voting is on the gender split. Women are seriously outvoting men in most of the swing states but this is not the case in NV/AZ.
They are the 2 battleground states where I make Trump a fav to win.
As of now, I think it likely that the Republicans will take control of the Senate, and that the odds slightly favor the Democrats taking control of the House. (For the record, I'm in favor of both.)
If both those things happen, whoever wins the presidency will be severely limited in how many of their promises they can keep.
a) Jesse Watters is married and b) it is to human/woman.
1% of population is 670K of people, or restrict it to age groups 18 and above and 1% is around 500k from 51million. Total drivers licences in issue are 41.5 million, so 1% of that 410k.
Drivers licences revoked for medical reasons in the decade 2014 to 2024 are 650k, so 65k per annum. And the total numbers of medically revoked licences will be several times that - depending how many get them back.
I think the bigger question is perhaps your focus on driving at the centre.
We have talked about people who cannot drive for medical reasons. But those who choose not to drive are equally lawful users of the public highway and have equal rights / privileges to those who choose to use a motor vehicle.
We have 41.5 million driving licences in issue, and that means we have 26 million people who do not have a driving licence who need equal consideration.
That 26 million comprise non-drivers for medical reasons, non-drivers by choice, non-drivers by circumstance eg can't afford to, almost everyone under 17, elderly for whatever reason, and any other categories.
That is just under 40% who need to be considered.
The fairly stark stats in the budgets are that there was about £7 billion of extra expenditure for vehicle drivers, and £100m for public highways users walking, wheeling or cycling. That is without looking at existing budgets.