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Trump’s women problem? – politicalbetting.com
Trump’s women problem? – politicalbetting.com
"Do you think Trump respects women?"No: 49%Yes: 38%Unsure: 13%YouGov / Oct 29, 2024 / n=1587
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"Do you think Trump respects women?"No: 49%Yes: 38%Unsure: 13%YouGov / Oct 29, 2024 / n=1587
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The interview (with Vance) is well worth watching. I listened to an hour yesterday (it is over 3 hours long). It is a very interesting discussion where he seems to just explain his personal views on a lot of contentious issues, which seems to align with the message of the Trump campaign, but would never in any other electoral context be possible. IE you could create an unlimited amount of 'evidence' demonstrating that he is 'transphobic' from the discussion, if that was your agenda; but it won't matter because the Trump campaign seems to defy all known political 'rules'. He comes across as being very assured of his views - his style is very much to invite you to agree with him, rather than reaching out to his opponents, again something that goes against all political norms.
The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.
We could be seeing a new dividing line in politics
I mean - seriously?
Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.
See:
Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/
Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.
Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.
U turn coming????
The thing that is truly mystifying is that, despite this, the public sector cannot recruit. For example, in my own field - planning, there is an abundance of jobs paying circa £30k that require no experience (although you have to go through training) and which cannot be filled despite multiple attempts.
But you know what? If someone says "please use the following pronoun for me", I'll say "yes, of course", because that is basic human courtesy.
ANYWAY.
I agree that is the Trump-Vance pitch. That the country is a mess and only they can sort it out.
In other words, they want to "Take America Back".
America has 300 million people and they all need to live together. That means letting people in cities have liberal policies on abortion and trans rights. And it means letting people in Utah have the opposite. And it means allowing people to vote with their feet in live in states which suit their worldview.
I've said it before, but the idea that there is some kind of victory where opposing voices are silenced is a complete chimera that can only end in civil war.
We all need to remember we need to live together. We need to remember that - even if we disagree with people - then they are still people with just as many rights as us.
Anyway. I need to go to bed.
Night all.
But he is also a man who rewards people who tell him what he wants to hear. He's fallen into the same trap as so many successful people of thinking himself so smart, that anyone who disagrees with him is an idiot.
Success fucks people up.
Look at Elon and Tesla.
Tesla in 2016 was a bonkers fractious company. Musk said one thing. The engineers another. They'd argue. Musk would threaten to write the code himself. Then he'd come groveling to an engineer a few hours later.
Tesla in 2024 is "Elon's way or the highway". You disagree with Elon now, and you're out of a job.
Describes both Musk and Trump and, sadly, a lot of people see that as clever.
And I thought Tesla overvalued as a company anyway.
A Hallowe’en parade including a “Kamala Harris” in slavery chains behind a “Trump” golf cart.
Expertise beats location.
A simple way to define the election:
Harris's DNC want to protect people's rights. The right to choose, the right to privacy, the right to exist
Trump's RNC want to remove people's rights. What they think is what all Americans should think, and if they don't they must be commie or psychotic.
The Trump offer truly is the Leopards' Eating Faces Party. They want to impose restrictions on what you do in your own home with your own body, but no no, they're actually only going to do that to the Bad People.
We will see how this plays out. I still think a Harris win, sadly followed by increasing protests, with a serious risk of those becoming violent & armed.
"“Farmers,” Clarkson said on the X social network, “I know that you have been shafted today. But please don’t despair. Just look after yourselves for five short years and this shower will be gone.”
Yet Clarkson himself – or rather the prospective beneficiaries of his estate – may be among those “shafted”. Clarkson has previously said that he bought his 126-hectare (312-acre), £4.25m farm, Diddly Squat, in order to avoid inheritance tax on his estate. In a 2021 interview with The Times Clarkson said that avoiding inheritance tax was “the critical thing” in his decision to buy the farm."
And later in the same article:
"only 44% of the individuals who gained agricultural relief had received any trading income from agriculture at any point in the five years prior to death. It is “not the classic working farmers” who will bear the brunt of the changes, he argued. The change could help cool the rural property market because fewer people will buy a field as inheritance tax dodges"
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/01/farmers-shocked-budget-inheritance-tax-estates
So clearly this is a relief that has become a tax dodge for non-farmers. Whether this is the best solution to address the issue, I don't know.
The snag - and it is an insuperable snag - is that it was from sources *other* than growing/rearing food.
My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.
Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
There’s a lot of evidence of both turnout being higher among women than men, and of sex-based polarisation in the past few years, with women trending more left and men more right.
That’s not stopping the Republican women though, who are having fun with their get out the vote campaign aimed at men.
https://x.com/stclairashley/status/1851711203820867655
https://x.com/arynnewexler/status/1851731423046344956
https://x.com/ada_lluch/status/1851713837411475503
https://x.com/trhlofficial/status/1851861548781670622
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/30/cars/chinese-byd-net-revenue-beat-tesla-first-time-intl-hnk/index.html
Harris +6 among independents, -3 among white voters, +50 among black voters, +11 among women, -6 among men, 63% of those who already voted support her; Gen X, Z (and millenials), and Baby Boomers support her 53%, Silent Generation supports Trump 51%
50% of likely voters have already voted; 15% plan to vote early; 35% on election day.
Harris only -3 on who would handle immigration best; -1 on the economy; +18 on abortion.
There is usually a gap between men and women but in this election it is extreme and the obvious reason is that +18 on abortion for Harris. Its interesting that the economy, once Trump's strongest point, is now a draw. I am surprised that immigration is as close as that, I do not think that would be the case in more southern states.
Personally I find it hilarious that a policy Trump never seemed to believe in but which he delivered to his evangelical supporters may well cost him this election.
NBC/Marist
Pennsylvania
Harris 50
Trump 48
Michigan
Harris 51
Trump 48
Wisconsin
Harris 50
Trump 48
You talk about magical NHS and public sector efficiency gains but why can’t your SME make similar gains?
a) economic knowledge
b) logical thought
c) a perspective longer than a few news cycles
d) a lack of social envy
So you can see why the current government will never do it.
As has been discussed ad nauseam, it’s a big dilemma for Western nations when they want everyone to buy EVs, but the Chinese EVs are way cheaper than the locally-made cars.
Harris 50
Trump 48
On farmers and IHT: I think there's a legitimate fear over the threshold coming down (most likely by fiscal drag reducing the threshold in real terms year-on-year while the actual threshold remains the same). Farmers provide the most basic of essentials for society and are already subject to a huge amount of stress.
If there's concern over agricultural land as a tax dodge then I'd assess the scale of the problem.
Well. Personally I'd bin IHT altogether, and that would solve the problem comprehensively.
And I'd fully support that.
It doesn't, unfortunately.
Yougov polling last month:
Do you personally hope that the United States elects a woman President of the United States in your lifetime?
No 22%
Female voters No 22%!!!
Conservative ideology No 44%
"Moderate" ideology No 17%
On top of that ridiculous 22% there is another 22% unsure, only just over a half ever want to see any female President.
It is a massive handicap when 22% of the voters and 17% of swing voters don't want you as President simply down to your gender.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_O3e18LR.pdf#page=43
I have lived long enough now to know that tax cuts don’t drive jobs and “growth” but rather the windfall just gets pocketed as profits.
So the town dweller.
"I will protect women, whether they like it or not."
On a negative side the drama over Biden’s remarks continue , the official stenographer complained that the WH changed the official transcript to add the infamous apostrophe in a different place !
Luckily for Kamala Trumps women comments have had a lot of media attention . It really was a huge own goal .
You reap what you sow.
You'd think they'd learnt that growing up on a farm.
You reap what you sow.
Apparently the public sector is exempt from the recent NI rises; the row is about the grey area of GPs etc where public and private meet untidily.
My question for the experts is this: Is this separation of state and private sector for ordinary NI treatment a new departure?
If it is I think it opens a can of worms.
Hence Peter the Great’s toast to the Swedish officers he captured at Poltava, and invited to dine with him;
“To my teachers.”
The other thing is that, if the change does reduce the use of agricultural land as an IHT dodge, and reduces agricultural land prices, then the value of farms will fall and fewer will be above the £1m threshold than at present.
Lower land prices is good for genuine farmers looking to expand their farm.
As discussed in the context of the Trump podcast last week, Rogan’s audience skews male, young, and rural, is going to be more Republican than Democrat. Perhaps these two conversations will help get demogaphics that traditionally don’t vote, to the polls on Tuesday.
I agree that the Harris campaign don’t want to risk it, they’ve been very controlled about the interviews that have done. They offered Rogan the opportunity to come to them and do an hour, which he declined. He’s not a political interviewer, he just wants to talk to people.
Although as a broad rule it is Labour who have normally increased Employers NI
Saying that too many farmers hold onto land until they are no longer fit to work, this should force a rethink on that.
I'm not sure what will happen to investment companies trying to buy/lease land, but given the potential for carbon offsetting, I think they will continue to invest
Seems about as black and white an answer as 'does Boris Johnson respect the institution of marriage?'...
Between droughts, floods, wild fires and hurricanes are we finally going to start to take climate change seriously?
And not just women. The long list of enemies and illegals he will lock up / deport. The Puerto Rico “joke” in itself isn’t a big deal, but seems to have woken up voters of that heritage - and the wider Latino voter block - that Trump wants them out of the country. And not just the illegals. He will make you illegal.
It really, really isn't the fault of serious people who don't set out to cheat people that others do and they have willing buyers for their lies.
If you don't want the snake oil, folks, don't buy it.
For example Parker Farms Ltd have 12 000 acres of East Leics.
To suggest outcomes haven't improved seems particularly peverse.
In the early 1990's women with early breast cancer had a 15% chance of dying within 5 years.
Now ? Its about 5%
Cataract operations were once an in patient operation with a couple of nights stay.
Its now done in about 12 minutes and you are back home straight away.
Quality is better, its safer and there are less complications.
The age of people having the operations has dropped, and there are at least 5 times the number of operations per year.
Life expectancy of men has increased by about 7 years since 40 years ago.
Many cancers are a function of age. Prostate being a prime example.
We have worse outcomes than many comparable countries, but then we spend less.
Happy to admit I have no idea.
Mortgage renewal fixed rates are only going in one direction once current offers expire...
My experience was that you could bob a long just following process at a pedestrian rate and have a job for life, whilst never being hugely satisfied with your lot.
Whereas, those with talent and capability got all the work, and worked very long hours but were not rewarded for it. So usually left.
https://today.yougov.com/society/articles/50845-women-and-politics-what-americans-think-about-the-2024-election
This stood out for me:
The share saying Trump respects women has increased slightly over time, especially among Republicans. In 2020, 29% said he respects women and in 2016, 26% said so. Among Republicans, the share saying he does rose to 71% from 65% in 2020 and 55% in 2016.
Does staunch against trans matter more than the allegations? Or is it the kool-aid?
How Brexit helped Britain lose the Chagos Islands
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-britain-chagos-islands-uk-un-decolonization-us-military-base-mauritius/
In fact, one of the consquences, perhaps intended, of the budget is that working for a very small business or being self-employed looks relatively more attractive now compared with other sectors. That's a good thing, but I think those improvements should be extended to medium-sized private firms too.
Meanwhile, Biden called Trump supporters garbage and they all turned up to hallowe’en parties dressed in bin bags.
My wife needs a double cataract operation and has just been put on Wales NHS 18 month waiting list
Why does Harris have such a man problem?