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Trump’s women problem? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,179
edited November 10 in General
Trump’s women problem? – politicalbetting.com

"Do you think Trump respects women?"No: 49%Yes: 38%Unsure: 13%YouGov / Oct 29, 2024 / n=1587

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Comments

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    FPT
    Sandpit said:

    Joe Rogan and JD Vance. 6m views in 12 hours.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRyyTAs1XY8

    Looks like the Harris team are going to miss out on this opportunity, unless she turns up in Austin today. Rogan’s been quite clear that the door is open to her any time.

    Harris is not going to do it; the messaging can't be managed. It is too high risk.

    The interview (with Vance) is well worth watching. I listened to an hour yesterday (it is over 3 hours long). It is a very interesting discussion where he seems to just explain his personal views on a lot of contentious issues, which seems to align with the message of the Trump campaign, but would never in any other electoral context be possible. IE you could create an unlimited amount of 'evidence' demonstrating that he is 'transphobic' from the discussion, if that was your agenda; but it won't matter because the Trump campaign seems to defy all known political 'rules'. He comes across as being very assured of his views - his style is very much to invite you to agree with him, rather than reaching out to his opponents, again something that goes against all political norms.

    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,056
    It has been widely said that Trump accepts this analysis and is chasing young men (keep your mind above your navel).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    darkage said:

    FPT
    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.

    Does anyone actually believe Trump, who bankrupted his own business multiple times and spends his moments babbling inanely about sharks, is either competent or smart?

    I mean - seriously?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474

    It has been widely said that Trump accepts this analysis and is chasing young men (keep your mind above your navel).

    That's Vance, shurely?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478
    edited November 1
    The public sector is not all roses. For example, young doctors have to pay for their own exams to progress and are not exactly offered much support to progress. That would be unheard of in the professional private sector. Other examples are teachers buying food and stationary for their classes and being unable to expense.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,861
    edited November 1
    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????
  • The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Closing the mines was a good economic policy, so the Telegraph is saying Starmer/Reeves are the new Thatcher?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Ive noticed in the last two weeks or so people Im talking to go off on one when talking about the public sector. Usually comments on Im getting whacked with tax while that lot with their big pensions and salaries arent doing anything to earn it.

    We could be seeing a new dividing line in politics

    I have worked in the public sector for most of my career. With a few very rare exceptions my colleagues are severely deluded about how good their position is. As well as the defined benefit pensions the working conditions are unachievable in any other sector. The delusion is sustained by misinformation about the private sector and the 'large bonuses' that private sector workers apparently get.

    The thing that is truly mystifying is that, despite this, the public sector cannot recruit. For example, in my own field - planning, there is an abundance of jobs paying circa £30k that require no experience (although you have to go through training) and which cannot be filled despite multiple attempts.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,293
    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    FPT
    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.

    Does anyone actually believe Trump, who bankrupted his own business multiple times and spends his moments babbling inanely about sharks, is either competent or smart?

    I mean - seriously?
    I'm sure people believe it. People can believe all sorts of tosh when it suits them.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,817
    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    FPT
    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.

    Does anyone actually believe Trump, who bankrupted his own business multiple times and spends his moments babbling inanely about sharks, is either competent or smart?

    I mean - seriously?
    Trump is considered smart by people who don't know a lot of smart people. Unfortunately, many US voters fall into this category.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,209

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    IHT magically perturbs large numbers of people who will never be affected by it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,293

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,622

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    FPT
    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.

    Does anyone actually believe Trump, who bankrupted his own business multiple times and spends his moments babbling inanely about sharks, is either competent or smart?

    I mean - seriously?
    Trump is considered smart by people who don't know a lot of smart people. Unfortunately, many US voters fall into this category.
    Cunning. Bullying. Capable of spinning failure as success. Suckering people into giving him finance and other resource, largely by leveraging family wealth. Criminal convictions and/or ongoing proceedings that don't seem to have consequences. Given a platform by the media and anything they say is treated as important.

    Describes both Musk and Trump and, sadly, a lot of people see that as clever.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    FPT
    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.

    Does anyone actually believe Trump, who bankrupted his own business multiple times and spends his moments babbling inanely about sharks, is either competent or smart?

    I mean - seriously?
    Donald Trump is no idiot - or certainly was no idiot when he was younger.

    But he is also a man who rewards people who tell him what he wants to hear. He's fallen into the same trap as so many successful people of thinking himself so smart, that anyone who disagrees with him is an idiot.

    Success fucks people up.

    Look at Elon and Tesla.

    Tesla in 2016 was a bonkers fractious company. Musk said one thing. The engineers another. They'd argue. Musk would threaten to write the code himself. Then he'd come groveling to an engineer a few hours later.

    Tesla in 2024 is "Elon's way or the highway". You disagree with Elon now, and you're out of a job.

    That doesn't sound a good long-term prospect to me.

    And I thought Tesla overvalued as a company anyway.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
    The issue on tax is how people will behave. Townies have no idea of how people in the country think.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,209
    https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/kamala-harris-chains-pennsylvania-halloween-parade/

    A Hallowe’en parade including a “Kamala Harris” in slavery chains behind a “Trump” golf cart.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
    The issue on tax is how people will behave. Townies have no idea of how people in the country think.
    So what? It isn’t the governments job to handhold every failure to plan for the future
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,293

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
    The issue on tax is how people will behave. Townies have no idea of how people in the country think.
    So what? It isn’t the governments job to handhold every failure to plan for the future
    Well there gors the NHS.
  • Only a few days to go until the protests start.

    A simple way to define the election:
    Harris's DNC want to protect people's rights. The right to choose, the right to privacy, the right to exist
    Trump's RNC want to remove people's rights. What they think is what all Americans should think, and if they don't they must be commie or psychotic.

    The Trump offer truly is the Leopards' Eating Faces Party. They want to impose restrictions on what you do in your own home with your own body, but no no, they're actually only going to do that to the Bad People.

    We will see how this plays out. I still think a Harris win, sadly followed by increasing protests, with a serious risk of those becoming violent & armed.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
    The issue on tax is how people will behave. Townies have no idea of how people in the country think.
    So what? It isn’t the governments job to handhold every failure to plan for the future
    Well there gors the NHS.
    Are you really comparing socialised medicine to a farmers ability to pass on £1m worth of assets tax free to their kids?
  • The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
    The issue on tax is how people will behave. Townies have no idea of how people in the country think.
    Farmers aren't the brightest bulbs in the chandelier, I mean they thought Brexit would be a good idea despite all the evidence to the contrary.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Though I thought this interesting:

    "“Farmers,” Clarkson said on the X social network, “I know that you have been shafted today. But please don’t despair. Just look after yourselves for five short years and this shower will be gone.”

    Yet Clarkson himself – or rather the prospective beneficiaries of his estate – may be among those “shafted”. Clarkson has previously said that he bought his 126-hectare (312-acre), £4.25m farm, Diddly Squat, in order to avoid inheritance tax on his estate. In a 2021 interview with The Times Clarkson said that avoiding inheritance tax was “the critical thing” in his decision to buy the farm."

    And later in the same article:

    "only 44% of the individuals who gained agricultural relief had received any trading income from agriculture at any point in the five years prior to death. It is “not the classic working farmers” who will bear the brunt of the changes, he argued. The change could help cool the rural property market because fewer people will buy a field as inheritance tax dodges"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/01/farmers-shocked-budget-inheritance-tax-estates

    So clearly this is a relief that has become a tax dodge for non-farmers. Whether this is the best solution to address the issue, I don't know.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    Foxy said:

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Though I thought this interesting:

    "“Farmers,” Clarkson said on the X social network, “I know that you have been shafted today. But please don’t despair. Just look after yourselves for five short years and this shower will be gone.”

    Yet Clarkson himself – or rather the prospective beneficiaries of his estate – may be among those “shafted”. Clarkson has previously said that he bought his 126-hectare (312-acre), £4.25m farm, Diddly Squat, in order to avoid inheritance tax on his estate. In a 2021 interview with The Times Clarkson said that avoiding inheritance tax was “the critical thing” in his decision to buy the farm."

    And later in the same article:

    "only 44% of the individuals who gained agricultural relief had received any trading income from agriculture at any point in the five years prior to death. It is “not the classic working farmers” who will bear the brunt of the changes, he argued. The change could help cool the rural property market because fewer people will buy a field as inheritance tax dodges"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/01/farmers-shocked-budget-inheritance-tax-estates

    So clearly this is a relief that has become a tax dodge for non-farmers. Whether this is the best solution to address the issue, I don't know.
    There's a certain irony in that Clarkson is, of course, somebody who has managed to make the farm he bought as an investment insanely profitable.

    The snag - and it is an insuperable snag - is that it was from sources *other* than growing/rearing food.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
    The issue on tax is how people will behave. Townies have no idea of how people in the country think.
    So what? It isn’t the governments job to handhold every failure to plan for the future
    Well there gors the NHS.
    Are you really comparing socialised medicine to a farmers ability to pass on £1m worth of assets tax free to their kids?
    Of course you eaisied the issue of failing organisatuions and the NHS is currently a failure. Even the Health Secretary says so,
  • eekeek Posts: 28,433

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    Slight problem Dan Niedle leaves in rural Norfolk - he retired during Covid and posts about Tax as almost a hobby..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646
    From yesterday:

    There’s a lot of evidence of both turnout being higher among women than men, and of sex-based polarisation in the past few years, with women trending more left and men more right.

    That’s not stopping the Republican women though, who are having fun with their get out the vote campaign aimed at men.
    https://x.com/stclairashley/status/1851711203820867655
    https://x.com/arynnewexler/status/1851731423046344956
    https://x.com/ada_lluch/status/1851713837411475503
    https://x.com/trhlofficial/status/1851861548781670622
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478
    edited November 1

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment. Growth in this context just means you don’t want to pay more tax.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
    The issue on tax is how people will behave. Townies have no idea of how people in the country think.
    Farmers aren't the brightest bulbs in the chandelier, I mean they thought Brexit would be a good idea despite all the evidence to the contrary.
    Lola farmer would beat you hands down in a negotiation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    FPT
    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.

    Does anyone actually believe Trump, who bankrupted his own business multiple times and spends his moments babbling inanely about sharks, is either competent or smart?

    I mean - seriously?
    Donald Trump is no idiot - or certainly was no idiot when he was younger.

    But he is also a man who rewards people who tell him what he wants to hear. He's fallen into the same trap as so many successful people of thinking himself so smart, that anyone who disagrees with him is an idiot.

    Success fucks people up.

    Look at Elon and Tesla.

    Tesla in 2016 was a bonkers fractious company. Musk said one thing. The engineers another. They'd argue. Musk would threaten to write the code himself. Then he'd come groveling to an engineer a few hours later.

    Tesla in 2024 is "Elon's way or the highway". You disagree with Elon now, and you're out of a job.

    That doesn't sound a good long-term prospect to me.

    And I thought Tesla overvalued as a company anyway.
    This is the year that BYD beat Tesla for sales for the first time:

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/30/cars/chinese-byd-net-revenue-beat-tesla-first-time-intl-hnk/index.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    Maris poll just out good for Harris but it is worth looking at some of the detail: This is for Michigan where Harris is +3

    Harris +6 among independents, -3 among white voters, +50 among black voters, +11 among women, -6 among men, 63% of those who already voted support her; Gen X, Z (and millenials), and Baby Boomers support her 53%, Silent Generation supports Trump 51%

    50% of likely voters have already voted; 15% plan to vote early; 35% on election day.

    Harris only -3 on who would handle immigration best; -1 on the economy; +18 on abortion.

    There is usually a gap between men and women but in this election it is extreme and the obvious reason is that +18 on abortion for Harris. Its interesting that the economy, once Trump's strongest point, is now a draw. I am surprised that immigration is as close as that, I do not think that would be the case in more southern states.

    Personally I find it hilarious that a policy Trump never seemed to believe in but which he delivered to his evangelical supporters may well cost him this election.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,536

    Ive noticed in the last two weeks or so people Im talking to go off on one when talking about the public sector. Usually comments on Im getting whacked with tax while that lot with their big pensions and salaries arent doing anything to earn it.

    We could be seeing a new dividing line in politics

    Oddly enough this happened to me yesterday when I Was talking to one of the young engineers about the budget. Not happy.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Some US polls dropped overnight .

    NBC/Marist

    Pennsylvania

    Harris 50
    Trump 48

    Michigan

    Harris 51
    Trump 48

    Wisconsin

    Harris 50
    Trump 48
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
    The magical “cut spending” and “growth” which means fuck all without detailing what you’d cut and who and what the effects would be - exactly what you’re complaining about now in fact.

    You talk about magical NHS and public sector efficiency gains but why can’t your SME make similar gains?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    Taz said:

    Ive noticed in the last two weeks or so people Im talking to go off on one when talking about the public sector. Usually comments on Im getting whacked with tax while that lot with their big pensions and salaries arent doing anything to earn it.

    We could be seeing a new dividing line in politics

    Oddly enough this happened to me yesterday when I Was talking to one of the young engineers about the budget. Not happy.
    THe thing that hits me is people just volunteer the opinions you dont need to prompt them
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,452
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    FPT
    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.

    Does anyone actually believe Trump, who bankrupted his own business multiple times and spends his moments babbling inanely about sharks, is either competent or smart?

    I mean - seriously?
    Donald Trump is no idiot - or certainly was no idiot when he was younger.

    But he is also a man who rewards people who tell him what he wants to hear. He's fallen into the same trap as so many successful people of thinking himself so smart, that anyone who disagrees with him is an idiot.

    Success fucks people up.

    Look at Elon and Tesla.

    Tesla in 2016 was a bonkers fractious company. Musk said one thing. The engineers another. They'd argue. Musk would threaten to write the code himself. Then he'd come groveling to an engineer a few hours later.

    Tesla in 2024 is "Elon's way or the highway". You disagree with Elon now, and you're out of a job.

    And that attitude, essentially, is what Trump's GOP wants to bring to politics.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,861
    nico679 said:

    Some US polls dropped overnight .

    NBC/Marist

    Pennsylvania

    Harris 50
    Trump 48

    Michigan

    Harris 51
    Trump 48

    Wisconsin

    Harris 50
    Trump 48

    Looks like we have found Trump's ceiling!!!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,074

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
    But doing that requires:

    a) economic knowledge
    b) logical thought
    c) a perspective longer than a few news cycles
    d) a lack of social envy

    So you can see why the current government will never do it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    FPT
    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.

    Does anyone actually believe Trump, who bankrupted his own business multiple times and spends his moments babbling inanely about sharks, is either competent or smart?

    I mean - seriously?
    Donald Trump is no idiot - or certainly was no idiot when he was younger.

    But he is also a man who rewards people who tell him what he wants to hear. He's fallen into the same trap as so many successful people of thinking himself so smart, that anyone who disagrees with him is an idiot.

    Success fucks people up.

    Look at Elon and Tesla.

    Tesla in 2016 was a bonkers fractious company. Musk said one thing. The engineers another. They'd argue. Musk would threaten to write the code himself. Then he'd come groveling to an engineer a few hours later.

    Tesla in 2024 is "Elon's way or the highway". You disagree with Elon now, and you're out of a job.

    That doesn't sound a good long-term prospect to me.

    And I thought Tesla overvalued as a company anyway.
    This is the year that BYD beat Tesla for sales for the first time:

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/30/cars/chinese-byd-net-revenue-beat-tesla-first-time-intl-hnk/index.html
    In my part of the world the Chinese cars are absolutely everywhere, and it’s all happened in the last two years. They’re good enough for most people who just want transport, and are about 20% cheaper than the Korean cars.

    As has been discussed ad nauseam, it’s a big dilemma for Western nations when they want everyone to buy EVs, but the Chinese EVs are way cheaper than the locally-made cars.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478
    Fishing said:

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
    But doing that requires:

    a) economic knowledge
    b) logical thought
    c) a perspective longer than a few news cycles
    d) a lack of social envy

    So you can see why the current government will never do it.
    The irony
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    There was also a SoCal poll which is a GOP biased pollster and even that showed a lead for Harris in Pennsylvania.

    Harris 50
    Trump 48
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    edited November 1

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
    The magical “cut spending” and “growth” which means fuck all without detailing what you’d cut and who and what the effects would be - exactly what you’re complaining about now in fact.

    You talk about magical NHS and public sector efficiency gains but why can’t your SME make similar gains?
    Our SME does it every year. It' why our VAPE is on the up. It will probably take us a couple of years to claw this back. The NHS will simply swallow the money as its productivity falls over the next 5 years.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    Good morning, everyone.

    On farmers and IHT: I think there's a legitimate fear over the threshold coming down (most likely by fiscal drag reducing the threshold in real terms year-on-year while the actual threshold remains the same). Farmers provide the most basic of essentials for society and are already subject to a huge amount of stress.

    If there's concern over agricultural land as a tax dodge then I'd assess the scale of the problem.

    Well. Personally I'd bin IHT altogether, and that would solve the problem comprehensively.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
    The magical “cut spending” and “growth” which means fuck all without detailing what you’d cut and who and what the effects would be - exactly what you’re complaining about now in fact.

    You talk about magical NHS and public sector efficiency gains but why can’t your SME make similar gains?
    Our SME does it every year. It' why our VAPE is on the up. It will probably take us a couple of years to claw this back. The NHS will simply swallow the money as it productivity falls over the next 5 years.
    Or NHS outcomes might improve, GP service might be better, new hospitals and facilities might be built, including in rural areas. Who knows?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,452

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment. Growth in this context just means you don’t want to pay more tax.
    That might be a fair argument, if the budget contained genuine growth measures.
    And I'd fully support that.

    It doesn't, unfortunately.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,915
    Trump does have a women problem but Harris has a related voter problem too.

    Yougov polling last month:

    Do you personally hope that the United States elects a woman President of the United States in your lifetime?

    No 22%
    Female voters No 22%!!!
    Conservative ideology No 44%
    "Moderate" ideology No 17%

    On top of that ridiculous 22% there is another 22% unsure, only just over a half ever want to see any female President.

    It is a massive handicap when 22% of the voters and 17% of swing voters don't want you as President simply down to your gender.

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_O3e18LR.pdf#page=43
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478
    Nigelb said:

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment. Growth in this context just means you don’t want to pay more tax.
    That might be a fair argument, if the budget contained genuine growth measures.
    And I'd fully support that.

    It doesn't, unfortunately.
    That’s your opinion. In my view investment in education healthcare and infrastructure is a driver for growth.

    I have lived long enough now to know that tax cuts don’t drive jobs and “growth” but rather the windfall just gets pocketed as profits.
  • The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    The one who doesn't have a vested interest.

    So the town dweller.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,452

    Only a few days to go until the protests start.

    A simple way to define the election:
    Harris's DNC want to protect people's rights. The right to choose, the right to privacy, the right to exist
    Trump's RNC want to remove people's rights. What they think is what all Americans should think, and if they don't they must be commie or psychotic.

    The Trump offer truly is the Leopards' Eating Faces Party. They want to impose restrictions on what you do in your own home with your own body, but no no, they're actually only going to do that to the Bad People.

    We will see how this plays out. I still think a Harris win, sadly followed by increasing protests, with a serious risk of those becoming violent & armed.

    Trump:
    "I will protect women, whether they like it or not."
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited November 1

    nico679 said:

    Some US polls dropped overnight .

    NBC/Marist

    Pennsylvania

    Harris 50
    Trump 48

    Michigan

    Harris 51
    Trump 48

    Wisconsin

    Harris 50
    Trump 48

    Looks like we have found Trump's ceiling!!!
    Hopefully !

    On a negative side the drama over Biden’s remarks continue , the official stenographer complained that the WH changed the official transcript to add the infamous apostrophe in a different place !

    Luckily for Kamala Trumps women comments have had a lot of media attention . It really was a huge own goal .
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
    The magical “cut spending” and “growth” which means fuck all without detailing what you’d cut and who and what the effects would be - exactly what you’re complaining about now in fact.

    You talk about magical NHS and public sector efficiency gains but why can’t your SME make similar gains?
    Our SME does it every year. It' why our VAPE is on the up. It will probably take us a couple of years to claw this back. The NHS will simply swallow the money as it productivity falls over the next 5 years.
    Or NHS outcomes might improve, GP service might be better, new hospitals and facilities might be built, including in rural areas. Who knows?
    The triumph of hope over experience. Good luck with hat,

  • kenObikenObi Posts: 186

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
    The issue on tax is how people will behave. Townies have no idea of how people in the country think.
    Farmers aren't the brightest bulbs in the chandelier, I mean they thought Brexit would be a good idea despite all the evidence to the contrary.
    Lola farmer would beat you hands down in a negotiation.
    Yet the majority voted Brexit.

    You reap what you sow.

    You'd think they'd learnt that growing up on a farm.

    You reap what you sow.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,670
    A story from the budget now around is on the theme of NI (employers) differences in treatment for public and private sectors.

    Apparently the public sector is exempt from the recent NI rises; the row is about the grey area of GPs etc where public and private meet untidily.

    My question for the experts is this: Is this separation of state and private sector for ordinary NI treatment a new departure?

    If it is I think it opens a can of worms.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,405
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    FPT
    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.

    Does anyone actually believe Trump, who bankrupted his own business multiple times and spends his moments babbling inanely about sharks, is either competent or smart?

    I mean - seriously?
    Donald Trump is no idiot - or certainly was no idiot when he was younger.

    But he is also a man who rewards people who tell him what he wants to hear. He's fallen into the same trap as so many successful people of thinking himself so smart, that anyone who disagrees with him is an idiot.

    Success fucks people up.

    Look at Elon and Tesla.

    Tesla in 2016 was a bonkers fractious company. Musk said one thing. The engineers another. They'd argue. Musk would threaten to write the code himself. Then he'd come groveling to an engineer a few hours later.

    Tesla in 2024 is "Elon's way or the highway". You disagree with Elon now, and you're out of a job.

    Adversity is a much better teacher than success.

    Hence Peter the Great’s toast to the Swedish officers he captured at Poltava, and invited to dine with him;

    “To my teachers.”
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,847

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
    The issue on tax is how people will behave. Townies have no idea of how people in the country think.
    Farmers aren't the brightest bulbs in the chandelier, I mean they thought Brexit would be a good idea despite all the evidence to the contrary.
    Lola farmer would beat you hands down in a negotiation.
    Emm I think farmers and supermarkets might disagree with that by all reports. Supermarkets having them over a barrel comes to mind.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607
    Foxy said:

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Though I thought this interesting:

    "“Farmers,” Clarkson said on the X social network, “I know that you have been shafted today. But please don’t despair. Just look after yourselves for five short years and this shower will be gone.”

    Yet Clarkson himself – or rather the prospective beneficiaries of his estate – may be among those “shafted”. Clarkson has previously said that he bought his 126-hectare (312-acre), £4.25m farm, Diddly Squat, in order to avoid inheritance tax on his estate. In a 2021 interview with The Times Clarkson said that avoiding inheritance tax was “the critical thing” in his decision to buy the farm."

    And later in the same article:

    "only 44% of the individuals who gained agricultural relief had received any trading income from agriculture at any point in the five years prior to death. It is “not the classic working farmers” who will bear the brunt of the changes, he argued. The change could help cool the rural property market because fewer people will buy a field as inheritance tax dodges"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/01/farmers-shocked-budget-inheritance-tax-estates

    So clearly this is a relief that has become a tax dodge for non-farmers. Whether this is the best solution to address the issue, I don't know.
    I guess if you wanted to provide more relief for family farms that had been in the family for generations, you could provide £1m of relief per generation the farm has been in the family, perhaps capped at five generations.

    The other thing is that, if the change does reduce the use of agricultural land as an IHT dodge, and reduces agricultural land prices, then the value of farms will fall and fewer will be above the £1m threshold than at present.

    Lower land prices is good for genuine farmers looking to expand their farm.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Nigelb said:

    Only a few days to go until the protests start.

    A simple way to define the election:
    Harris's DNC want to protect people's rights. The right to choose, the right to privacy, the right to exist
    Trump's RNC want to remove people's rights. What they think is what all Americans should think, and if they don't they must be commie or psychotic.

    The Trump offer truly is the Leopards' Eating Faces Party. They want to impose restrictions on what you do in your own home with your own body, but no no, they're actually only going to do that to the Bad People.

    We will see how this plays out. I still think a Harris win, sadly followed by increasing protests, with a serious risk of those becoming violent & armed.

    Trump:
    "I will protect women, whether they like it or not."
    Apparently the Hollywood Access tape is getting re-newed attention now . I really think the Harris campaign should use that and then add on Trumps comments .

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,915
    edited November 1
    algarkirk said:

    A story from the budget now around is on the theme of NI (employers) differences in treatment for public and private sectors.

    Apparently the public sector is exempt from the recent NI rises; the row is about the grey area of GPs etc where public and private meet untidily.

    My question for the experts is this: Is this separation of state and private sector for ordinary NI treatment a new departure?

    If it is I think it opens a can of worms.

    I don't think it is exempt, merely that the state paying itself is a circular transaction. But a particular school or health trust still has to pay the NI out of whatever budget it has so is facing an increase. So exempt at the government level is kind of true de facto but not wholly accurate, but it is not true at the organisational level either de facto or literally.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646
    darkage said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Rogan and JD Vance. 6m views in 12 hours.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRyyTAs1XY8

    Looks like the Harris team are going to miss out on this opportunity, unless she turns up in Austin today. Rogan’s been quite clear that the door is open to her any time.

    Harris is not going to do it; the messaging can't be managed. It is too high risk.

    The interview (with Vance) is well worth watching. I listened to an hour yesterday (it is over 3 hours long). It is a very interesting discussion where he seems to just explain his personal views on a lot of contentious issues, which seems to align with the message of the Trump campaign, but would never in any other electoral context be possible. IE you could create an unlimited amount of 'evidence' demonstrating that he is 'transphobic' from the discussion, if that was your agenda; but it won't matter because the Trump campaign seems to defy all known political 'rules'. He comes across as being very assured of his views - his style is very much to invite you to agree with him, rather than reaching out to his opponents, again something that goes against all political norms.

    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.
    I’ve seen a few clips, will watch the whole thing later. Having seen his podcast last week with Theo Von, I actually like Vance even though I don’t particularly like Trump. Anyone talking about ‘transphopia’ is already voting Harris.

    As discussed in the context of the Trump podcast last week, Rogan’s audience skews male, young, and rural, is going to be more Republican than Democrat. Perhaps these two conversations will help get demogaphics that traditionally don’t vote, to the polls on Tuesday.

    I agree that the Harris campaign don’t want to risk it, they’ve been very controlled about the interviews that have done. They offered Rogan the opportunity to come to them and do an hour, which he declined. He’s not a political interviewer, he just wants to talk to people.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 186
    algarkirk said:

    A story from the budget now around is on the theme of NI (employers) differences in treatment for public and private sectors.

    Apparently the public sector is exempt from the recent NI rises; the row is about the grey area of GPs etc where public and private meet untidily.

    My question for the experts is this: Is this separation of state and private sector for ordinary NI treatment a new departure?

    If it is I think it opens a can of worms.

    No its not a new departure.
    Although as a broad rule it is Labour who have normally increased Employers NI

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    kenObi said:

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
    The issue on tax is how people will behave. Townies have no idea of how people in the country think.
    Farmers aren't the brightest bulbs in the chandelier, I mean they thought Brexit would be a good idea despite all the evidence to the contrary.
    Lola farmer would beat you hands down in a negotiation.
    Yet the majority voted Brexit.

    You reap what you sow.

    You'd think they'd learnt that growing up on a farm.

    You reap what you sow.
    In recent years, they've not been able to reap anything because of all the fecking rain.
  • DavidL said:

    Maris poll just out good for Harris but it is worth looking at some of the detail: This is for Michigan where Harris is +3

    Harris +6 among independents, -3 among white voters, +50 among black voters, +11 among women, -6 among men, 63% of those who already voted support her; Gen X, Z (and millenials), and Baby Boomers support her 53%, Silent Generation supports Trump 51%

    50% of likely voters have already voted; 15% plan to vote early; 35% on election day.

    Harris only -3 on who would handle immigration best; -1 on the economy; +18 on abortion.

    There is usually a gap between men and women but in this election it is extreme and the obvious reason is that +18 on abortion for Harris. Its interesting that the economy, once Trump's strongest point, is now a draw. I am surprised that immigration is as close as that, I do not think that would be the case in more southern states.

    Personally I find it hilarious that a policy Trump never seemed to believe in but which he delivered to his evangelical supporters may well cost him this election.

    He will not win in Michigan.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 49

    Good morning, everyone.

    On farmers and IHT: I think there's a legitimate fear over the threshold coming down (most likely by fiscal drag reducing the threshold in real terms year-on-year while the actual threshold remains the same). Farmers provide the most basic of essentials for society and are already subject to a huge amount of stress.

    If there's concern over agricultural land as a tax dodge then I'd assess the scale of the problem.

    Well. Personally I'd bin IHT altogether, and that would solve the problem comprehensively.

    I think the shock is not that a limit on IHT relief has come in, but how low it is. Most decent land in England trades well over 11k/acre. There's also great disparity between the per acre price of land in the home counties, and an upland farm in say, Caithness or Argyll. It doesn't take a large farm to get to £1 million. The big tax advantages will be if you are married, it effectively doubles the £1 mill untaxed threshold. Selling off fields for housing/solar panels is one option, but reduction in size would make many farms unsurvivable.

    Saying that too many farmers hold onto land until they are no longer fit to work, this should force a rethink on that.

    I'm not sure what will happen to investment companies trying to buy/lease land, but given the potential for carbon offsetting, I think they will continue to invest
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,209
    I'm hoping women have a Trump problem.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809
    algarkirk said:

    A story from the budget now around is on the theme of NI (employers) differences in treatment for public and private sectors.

    Apparently the public sector is exempt from the recent NI rises; the row is about the grey area of GPs etc where public and private meet untidily.

    My question for the experts is this: Is this separation of state and private sector for ordinary NI treatment a new departure?

    If it is I think it opens a can of worms.

    All employers public and private will pay the NIC increase. Indeed it will absorb a substantial amount of the budgeted rises in spending, so those headline figures on money for councils, Social Care etc are misleading.
  • mwadams said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    FPT
    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.

    Does anyone actually believe Trump, who bankrupted his own business multiple times and spends his moments babbling inanely about sharks, is either competent or smart?

    I mean - seriously?
    Trump is considered smart by people who don't know a lot of smart people. Unfortunately, many US voters fall into this category.
    Cunning. Bullying. Capable of spinning failure as success. Suckering people into giving him finance and other resource, largely by leveraging family wealth. Criminal convictions and/or ongoing proceedings that don't seem to have consequences. Given a platform by the media and anything they say is treated as important.

    Describes both Musk and Trump and, sadly, a lot of people see that as clever.
    They think they are clever. They con people who want to be conned.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,045
    Nigelb said:

    Only a few days to go until the protests start.

    A simple way to define the election:
    Harris's DNC want to protect people's rights. The right to choose, the right to privacy, the right to exist
    Trump's RNC want to remove people's rights. What they think is what all Americans should think, and if they don't they must be commie or psychotic.

    The Trump offer truly is the Leopards' Eating Faces Party. They want to impose restrictions on what you do in your own home with your own body, but no no, they're actually only going to do that to the Bad People.

    We will see how this plays out. I still think a Harris win, sadly followed by increasing protests, with a serious risk of those becoming violent & armed.

    Trump:
    "I will protect women, whether they like it or not."
    ‘Honey, I’m gonna give you a damn good protecting’
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 49
    Foxy said:

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Though I thought this interesting:

    "“Farmers,” Clarkson said on the X social network, “I know that you have been shafted today. But please don’t despair. Just look after yourselves for five short years and this shower will be gone.”

    Yet Clarkson himself – or rather the prospective beneficiaries of his estate – may be among those “shafted”. Clarkson has previously said that he bought his 126-hectare (312-acre), £4.25m farm, Diddly Squat, in order to avoid inheritance tax on his estate. In a 2021 interview with The Times Clarkson said that avoiding inheritance tax was “the critical thing” in his decision to buy the farm."

    And later in the same article:

    "only 44% of the individuals who gained agricultural relief had received any trading income from agriculture at any point in the five years prior to death. It is “not the classic working farmers” who will bear the brunt of the changes, he argued. The change could help cool the rural property market because fewer people will buy a field as inheritance tax dodges"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/01/farmers-shocked-budget-inheritance-tax-estates

    So clearly this is a relief that has become a tax dodge for non-farmers. Whether this is the best solution to address the issue, I don't know.
    It's going to be interesting what the big estates do. They've used trusts as one means to keep themselves intact, interesting that the Government hint at closing loopholes over the next few years. Big consequences for tenant farmers if an estate is forcibly sold
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,045
    nico679 said:

    Some US polls dropped overnight .

    NBC/Marist

    Pennsylvania

    Harris 50
    Trump 48

    Michigan

    Harris 51
    Trump 48

    Wisconsin

    Harris 50
    Trump 48

    I’ve not being keeping up, where are Marist on the credibility scale for US pollsters?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,078
    What percentage of the 38% who thinks Trump respects women are men who don't respect women themselves?

    Seems about as black and white an answer as 'does Boris Johnson respect the institution of marriage?'...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809
    ydoethur said:

    kenObi said:

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    A farmer isn’t necessarily an expert on tax policy
    The issue on tax is how people will behave. Townies have no idea of how people in the country think.
    Farmers aren't the brightest bulbs in the chandelier, I mean they thought Brexit would be a good idea despite all the evidence to the contrary.
    Lola farmer would beat you hands down in a negotiation.
    Yet the majority voted Brexit.

    You reap what you sow.

    You'd think they'd learnt that growing up on a farm.

    You reap what you sow.
    In recent years, they've not been able to reap anything because of all the fecking rain.
    A very poor harvest this year round my way.

    Between droughts, floods, wild fires and hurricanes are we finally going to start to take climate change seriously?
  • Nigelb said:

    Only a few days to go until the protests start.

    A simple way to define the election:
    Harris's DNC want to protect people's rights. The right to choose, the right to privacy, the right to exist
    Trump's RNC want to remove people's rights. What they think is what all Americans should think, and if they don't they must be commie or psychotic.

    The Trump offer truly is the Leopards' Eating Faces Party. They want to impose restrictions on what you do in your own home with your own body, but no no, they're actually only going to do that to the Bad People.

    We will see how this plays out. I still think a Harris win, sadly followed by increasing protests, with a serious risk of those becoming violent & armed.

    Trump:
    "I will protect women, whether they like it or not."
    I have made the comparison to the fictional Gilead for ages. Trump and the GOP seem determined to create parts of it for real.

    And not just women. The long list of enemies and illegals he will lock up / deport. The Puerto Rico “joke” in itself isn’t a big deal, but seems to have woken up voters of that heritage - and the wider Latino voter block - that Trump wants them out of the country. And not just the illegals. He will make you illegal.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,209
    darkage said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Rogan and JD Vance. 6m views in 12 hours.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRyyTAs1XY8

    Looks like the Harris team are going to miss out on this opportunity, unless she turns up in Austin today. Rogan’s been quite clear that the door is open to her any time.

    Harris is not going to do it; the messaging can't be managed. It is too high risk.

    The interview (with Vance) is well worth watching. I listened to an hour yesterday (it is over 3 hours long). It is a very interesting discussion where he seems to just explain his personal views on a lot of contentious issues, which seems to align with the message of the Trump campaign, but would never in any other electoral context be possible. IE you could create an unlimited amount of 'evidence' demonstrating that he is 'transphobic' from the discussion, if that was your agenda; but it won't matter because the Trump campaign seems to defy all known political 'rules'. He comes across as being very assured of his views - his style is very much to invite you to agree with him, rather than reaching out to his opponents, again something that goes against all political norms.

    The essential appeal of Trump, Vance and their supporters like Musk is that the country is in a mess, they are competent and smart, and they will sort it out. Against this you have a clown show which is what the 'establishment' has descended to, in the form of the democrats. The victory of the former, if it happens, will be largely due to the failings and failures of the latter.
    I see these rationales and just want to scream "personal responsibility".

    It really, really isn't the fault of serious people who don't set out to cheat people that others do and they have willing buyers for their lies.

    If you don't want the snake oil, folks, don't buy it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,847
    Talk of putting earmuffs on dogs for bonfire night. Our dog would have a field day with that. Would be in bits within minutes. Fortunately he is not frightened by bangs although he does think there is someone at the door and goes and barks at it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,915
    Ratters said:

    What percentage of the 38% who thinks Trump respects women are men who don't respect women themselves?

    Seems about as black and white an answer as 'does Boris Johnson respect the institution of marriage?'...

    That is most unfair, he respects women so much he even owned Miss Universe to show off their amazing talents.
  • Trump will loose in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Arizona? I am not convinced he win there. I can't put my finger on why. He may well loose that state as well.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,775

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Plenty of farmers will be turning to "townie" accountants to work out exactly how these changes affect them. Division of labour and all that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809
    DoctorG said:

    Foxy said:

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Though I thought this interesting:

    "“Farmers,” Clarkson said on the X social network, “I know that you have been shafted today. But please don’t despair. Just look after yourselves for five short years and this shower will be gone.”

    Yet Clarkson himself – or rather the prospective beneficiaries of his estate – may be among those “shafted”. Clarkson has previously said that he bought his 126-hectare (312-acre), £4.25m farm, Diddly Squat, in order to avoid inheritance tax on his estate. In a 2021 interview with The Times Clarkson said that avoiding inheritance tax was “the critical thing” in his decision to buy the farm."

    And later in the same article:

    "only 44% of the individuals who gained agricultural relief had received any trading income from agriculture at any point in the five years prior to death. It is “not the classic working farmers” who will bear the brunt of the changes, he argued. The change could help cool the rural property market because fewer people will buy a field as inheritance tax dodges"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/01/farmers-shocked-budget-inheritance-tax-estates

    So clearly this is a relief that has become a tax dodge for non-farmers. Whether this is the best solution to address the issue, I don't know.
    It's going to be interesting what the big estates do. They've used trusts as one means to keep themselves intact, interesting that the Government hint at closing loopholes over the next few years. Big consequences for tenant farmers if an estate is forcibly sold
    Aren't a lot of the land owners limited companies now? Certainly seem so round my way.

    For example Parker Farms Ltd have 12 000 acres of East Leics.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 186

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
    The magical “cut spending” and “growth” which means fuck all without detailing what you’d cut and who and what the effects would be - exactly what you’re complaining about now in fact.

    You talk about magical NHS and public sector efficiency gains but why can’t your SME make similar gains?
    Our SME does it every year. It' why our VAPE is on the up. It will probably take us a couple of years to claw this back. The NHS will simply swallow the money as it productivity falls over the next 5 years.
    Or NHS outcomes might improve, GP service might be better, new hospitals and facilities might be built, including in rural areas. Who knows?
    The triumph of hope over experience. Good luck with hat,

    The demands on the NHS have grown massively.

    To suggest outcomes haven't improved seems particularly peverse.

    In the early 1990's women with early breast cancer had a 15% chance of dying within 5 years.

    Now ? Its about 5%

    Cataract operations were once an in patient operation with a couple of nights stay.
    Its now done in about 12 minutes and you are back home straight away.
    Quality is better, its safer and there are less complications.
    The age of people having the operations has dropped, and there are at least 5 times the number of operations per year.

    Life expectancy of men has increased by about 7 years since 40 years ago.
    Many cancers are a function of age. Prostate being a prime example.

    We have worse outcomes than many comparable countries, but then we spend less.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,915
    How do people (think they) know which states Trump and Harris are going to win when the polls are all in the margin of error and its going to be a nightmare of an election to poll accurately? And that is before any counting and legal shenanigans.

    Happy to admit I have no idea.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,078
    Incidentally, 5-year gilt yields are now 0.8% higher than their mid-September lows. And around 0.5% higher than they have been most of the last 3 months.

    Mortgage renewal fixed rates are only going in one direction once current offers expire...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,557
    darkage said:

    Ive noticed in the last two weeks or so people Im talking to go off on one when talking about the public sector. Usually comments on Im getting whacked with tax while that lot with their big pensions and salaries arent doing anything to earn it.

    We could be seeing a new dividing line in politics

    I have worked in the public sector for most of my career. With a few very rare exceptions my colleagues are severely deluded about how good their position is. As well as the defined benefit pensions the working conditions are unachievable in any other sector. The delusion is sustained by misinformation about the private sector and the 'large bonuses' that private sector workers apparently get.

    The thing that is truly mystifying is that, despite this, the public sector cannot recruit. For example, in my own field - planning, there is an abundance of jobs paying circa £30k that require no experience (although you have to go through training) and which cannot be filled despite multiple attempts.
    I recognise this.

    My experience was that you could bob a long just following process at a pedestrian rate and have a job for life, whilst never being hugely satisfied with your lot.

    Whereas, those with talent and capability got all the work, and worked very long hours but were not rewarded for it. So usually left.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,293
    Full story here:

    https://today.yougov.com/society/articles/50845-women-and-politics-what-americans-think-about-the-2024-election

    This stood out for me:

    The share saying Trump respects women has increased slightly over time, especially among Republicans. In 2020, 29% said he respects women and in 2016, 26% said so. Among Republicans, the share saying he does rose to 71% from 65% in 2020 and 55% in 2016.

    Does staunch against trans matter more than the allegations? Or is it the kool-aid?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    edited November 1
    kenObi said:

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
    The magical “cut spending” and “growth” which means fuck all without detailing what you’d cut and who and what the effects would be - exactly what you’re complaining about now in fact.

    You talk about magical NHS and public sector efficiency gains but why can’t your SME make similar gains?
    Our SME does it every year. It' why our VAPE is on the up. It will probably take us a couple of years to claw this back. The NHS will simply swallow the money as it productivity falls over the next 5 years.
    Or NHS outcomes might improve, GP service might be better, new hospitals and facilities might be built, including in rural areas. Who knows?
    The triumph of hope over experience. Good luck with hat,

    The demands on the NHS have grown massively.

    To suggest outcomes haven't improved seems particularly peverse.

    In the early 1990's women with early breast cancer had a 15% chance of dying within 5 years.

    Now ? Its about 5%

    Cataract operations were once an in patient operation with a couple of nights stay.
    Its now done in about 12 minutes and you are back home straight away.
    Quality is better, its safer and there are less complications.
    The age of people having the operations has dropped, and there are at least 5 times the number of operations per year.

    Life expectancy of men has increased by about 7 years since 40 years ago.
    Many cancers are a function of age. Prostate being a prime example.

    We have worse outcomes than many comparable countries, but then we spend less.
    Productivity has gone backwards start there.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,775
    edited November 1

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
    The magical “cut spending” and “growth” which means fuck all without detailing what you’d cut and who and what the effects would be - exactly what you’re complaining about now in fact.

    You talk about magical NHS and public sector efficiency gains but why can’t your SME make similar gains?
    The cult of the small business is at least as bad as that of the NHS. There is the assumption by politicians that these people are the smartest and most knowledgable in the country, but according to their own mantra anyone smart would be mad not to work in the public sector given the salaries and pensions.

    In fact, one of the consquences, perhaps intended, of the budget is that working for a very small business or being self-employed looks relatively more attractive now compared with other sectors. That's a good thing, but I think those improvements should be extended to medium-sized private firms too.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,176
    You didn't show The Picture of the ladies d'un certain age lusting after Trump intemperately.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646
    edited November 1

    Nigelb said:

    Only a few days to go until the protests start.

    A simple way to define the election:
    Harris's DNC want to protect people's rights. The right to choose, the right to privacy, the right to exist
    Trump's RNC want to remove people's rights. What they think is what all Americans should think, and if they don't they must be commie or psychotic.

    The Trump offer truly is the Leopards' Eating Faces Party. They want to impose restrictions on what you do in your own home with your own body, but no no, they're actually only going to do that to the Bad People.

    We will see how this plays out. I still think a Harris win, sadly followed by increasing protests, with a serious risk of those becoming violent & armed.

    Trump:
    "I will protect women, whether they like it or not."
    I have made the comparison to the fictional Gilead for ages. Trump and the GOP seem determined to create parts of it for real.

    And not just women. The long list of enemies and illegals he will lock up / deport. The Puerto Rico “joke” in itself isn’t a big deal, but seems to have woken up voters of that heritage - and the wider Latino voter block - that Trump wants them out of the country. And not just the illegals. He will make you illegal.
    What? A comedian made a joke at a rally. It’s a massive leap from that to Trump wants to deport anyone who’s in the county legally.

    Meanwhile, Biden called Trump supporters garbage and they all turned up to hallowe’en parties dressed in bin bags.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    nico679 said:

    Some US polls dropped overnight .

    NBC/Marist

    Pennsylvania

    Harris 50
    Trump 48

    Michigan

    Harris 51
    Trump 48

    Wisconsin

    Harris 50
    Trump 48

    I’ve not being keeping up, where are Marist on the credibility scale for US pollsters?
    It’s number 6 on the 538 poll ratings . So it was a very closely watched poll release .
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,176

    kenObi said:

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
    The magical “cut spending” and “growth” which means fuck all without detailing what you’d cut and who and what the effects would be - exactly what you’re complaining about now in fact.

    You talk about magical NHS and public sector efficiency gains but why can’t your SME make similar gains?
    Our SME does it every year. It' why our VAPE is on the up. It will probably take us a couple of years to claw this back. The NHS will simply swallow the money as it productivity falls over the next 5 years.
    Or NHS outcomes might improve, GP service might be better, new hospitals and facilities might be built, including in rural areas. Who knows?
    The triumph of hope over experience. Good luck with hat,

    The demands on the NHS have grown massively.

    To suggest outcomes haven't improved seems particularly peverse.

    In the early 1990's women with early breast cancer had a 15% chance of dying within 5 years.

    Now ? Its about 5%

    Cataract operations were once an in patient operation with a couple of nights stay.
    Its now done in about 12 minutes and you are back home straight away.
    Quality is better, its safer and there are less complications.
    The age of people having the operations has dropped, and there are at least 5 times the number of operations per year.

    Life expectancy of men has increased by about 7 years since 40 years ago.
    Many cancers are a function of age. Prostate being a prime example.

    We have worse outcomes than many comparable countries, but then we spend less.
    Proctivity has gone backwards start there.
    Down with Proctivity!
  • kenObi said:

    The mess with farmers and IHT is going to be one to watch. On one hand you have tax expert Dan Neidle saying 'what's the fuss?', very few farms will be included if you look at the tax stats, and then the farmers themselves saying it is a friggin' disaster.

    Telegraph has as ever gone totally toton on this this morning.

    See:

    Why Labour’s Budget is a ‘closure of the mines’ moment for British farming
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/31/labours-budget-is-a-closure-of-the-mines-moment-farmers/

    Yet the main example quoted is a farmer who farms the land still owned by his very aging father. They don't seem to have thought through inheritance and now they do.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls seems to have weighed in and warned that the politics of this are looking bad for Reeves.

    U turn coming????

    Who to believe on tax... A tax expert or someone who makes TV shows?
    Who to believe a farmer or a town dweller ?
    If the farmer knows about farming and the townie knows about tax, then the townie.

    Expertise beats location.
    Nonsense, the question on raising tax is how people will behave. You change the tax regime and people will act differently and often in ways that cant be predicted.

    My SME manufacturing co estimates the NI raid will cost us £200k next year. As a result we wont be raising salaries as much and will probably look at a couple of layoffs.

    Growrth ? Not on Labours agenda,
    I don’t know if you’ve heard but we have a massive budget deficit and a dire need for infrastructure investment.
    Yes, which is why we should cut current spending and divert funds to infrastructure. Reform taxes alone and we'll not kill off growth.
    The magical “cut spending” and “growth” which means fuck all without detailing what you’d cut and who and what the effects would be - exactly what you’re complaining about now in fact.

    You talk about magical NHS and public sector efficiency gains but why can’t your SME make similar gains?
    Our SME does it every year. It' why our VAPE is on the up. It will probably take us a couple of years to claw this back. The NHS will simply swallow the money as it productivity falls over the next 5 years.
    Or NHS outcomes might improve, GP service might be better, new hospitals and facilities might be built, including in rural areas. Who knows?
    The triumph of hope over experience. Good luck with hat,

    The demands on the NHS have grown massively.

    To suggest outcomes haven't improved seems particularly peverse.

    In the early 1990's women with early breast cancer had a 15% chance of dying within 5 years.

    Now ? Its about 5%

    Cataract operations were once an in patient operation with a couple of nights stay.
    Its now done in about 12 minutes and you are back home straight away.
    Quality is better, its safer and there are less complications.
    The age of people having the operations has dropped, and there are at least 5 times the number of operations per year.

    Life expectancy of men has increased by about 7 years since 40 years ago.
    Many cancers are a function of age. Prostate being a prime example.

    We have worse outcomes than many comparable countries, but then we spend less.
    Good morning

    My wife needs a double cataract operation and has just been put on Wales NHS 18 month waiting list
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,405

    nico679 said:

    Some US polls dropped overnight .

    NBC/Marist

    Pennsylvania

    Harris 50
    Trump 48

    Michigan

    Harris 51
    Trump 48

    Wisconsin

    Harris 50
    Trump 48

    I’ve not being keeping up, where are Marist on the credibility scale for US pollsters?
    Excellent. But, other excellent pollsters have given Trump the edge, in recent polls.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,074
    On topic, what about the converse?

    Why does Harris have such a man problem?
This discussion has been closed.