Georgia Supreme Court refuses to hear Republican appeal against Court ruling last week to "shoot down" seven new rules introduced by Republican controlled Election board.
Dem early voting is down in Arizona. The straw-clutching explanation is that Dems are returning to pre-Covid voting patterns and will turn out on the day.
The Dem data for 2020 does look like a huge outlier.
As previously mentioned, AZ statewide turnout is down (-4.2%). Largely in part to fewer lower Dem TO (-8.3%). Independents are down 4% while GOP voters are even.
It's very hard to draw definitive conclusions about this stuff, because 2020 was peak Covid.
Historically, older Republicans have been the main mail in voters.
But in 2020, the Republicans didn't vote by mail because Trump told them not to. This year, he's telling people to vote by mail. And Dems, presumably, are less likely to be locked up in their homes.
So, I'd be wary about drawing anything too conclusive.
One noticable thing is that there are about 125K less registered Dems in Nevada now compared to 2020. So even though the Dems are slightly ahead in terms of percentage or requested early forms returned (20% vs 18.7%), because there are 6 Republicans for every 5 Dems, the Republicans are ahead
"Great empires always fall, pushed by their own leaders. Just think of the role played in Britain’s decline by the Liberals who blundered into the First World War, permanently crippling the world’s dominant empire. Or the damage done to France by Napoleon III’s imperial blunders. Or the fumbling of autocrats in China, Russia and Germany in the last century.
The US, still the world’s only true empire, now confronts the reality of two unserious presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, each threatening its viability. Americans and the rest of what’s left of the liberal world have to hope that our intrinsic advantages in demography, finance, technology and resources will survive the presidencies of either of these awful candidates."
"Great empires always fall, pushed by their own leaders. Just think of the role played in Britain’s decline by the Liberals who blundered into the First World War, permanently crippling the world’s dominant empire. Or the damage done to France by Napoleon III’s imperial blunders. Or the fumbling of autocrats in China, Russia and Germany in the last century.
The US, still the world’s only true empire, now confronts the reality of two unserious presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, each threatening its viability. Americans and the rest of what’s left of the liberal world have to hope that our intrinsic advantages in demography, finance, technology and resources will survive the presidencies of either of these awful candidates."
"Great empires always fall, pushed by their own leaders. Just think of the role played in Britain’s decline by the Liberals who blundered into the First World War, permanently crippling the world’s dominant empire. Or the damage done to France by Napoleon III’s imperial blunders. Or the fumbling of autocrats in China, Russia and Germany in the last century.
The US, still the world’s only true empire, now confronts the reality of two unserious presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, each threatening its viability. Americans and the rest of what’s left of the liberal world have to hope that our intrinsic advantages in demography, finance, technology and resources will survive the presidencies of either of these awful candidates."
To be fair, he did attempt to overthrow a democratic election. Which is usually criminal behavior.
How come the legal process hasn't come for him?
1) It has but it's slow. Relatedly, 2) The Supreme Court isn't impartial, they've deliberately stalled then made up a bunch of weird restrictions on the evidence the prosecution is allowed to show the jury
To be fair, he did attempt to overthrow a democratic election. Which is usually criminal behavior.
How come the legal process hasn't come for him?
1) It has but it's slow. Relatedly, 2) The Supreme Court isn't impartial, they've deliberately stalled then made up a bunch of weird restrictions on the evidence the prosecution is allowed to show the jury
I’m on a Shinkansen from Kyoto to Tokyo
My god. Urban japan is fucking ugly. To a quite stupefying extent. How do you cope?
This is not a dig at Japan nor a taunt at you - merely an observation. Japanese towns and cities are hideously utilitarian and blighted by some of the most powerfully offensive architecture on earth
I guess the upsides - the food, the safety, the kind people, the still-lovely mountains - are a major compensation
Georgia Supreme Court refuses to hear Republican appeal against Court ruling last week to "shoot down" seven new rules introduced by Republican controlled Election board.
Which rather oddly serves up the chance to buy pottery from France.
Sorry, maybe not the best site to link, I was just looking for something with the vibe of the town not just pictures of pots.
It's such a great town. The thing about living in Japan is if you're in a city it's probably not that pretty, but if you're in the countryside it tends to be very closed and conservative and "this is a local shop for local people"-ish. But Mashiko has a much more open culture, based on people deciding they want to be potters and moving here in their 30s and 40s, and there are a bunch of people trying other stuff so it's not just pottery. It's just an incredible place to live, there's nowhere else like it in Japan (or the world I guess, since there's nowhere in the world like Japan)
"Great empires always fall, pushed by their own leaders. Just think of the role played in Britain’s decline by the Liberals who blundered into the First World War, permanently crippling the world’s dominant empire. Or the damage done to France by Napoleon III’s imperial blunders. Or the fumbling of autocrats in China, Russia and Germany in the last century.
The US, still the world’s only true empire, now confronts the reality of two unserious presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, each threatening its viability. Americans and the rest of what’s left of the liberal world have to hope that our intrinsic advantages in demography, finance, technology and resources will survive the presidencies of either of these awful candidates."
Kind of but Stoke is industrial pottery, Mashiko is handmade pots each crafted individually by hippies in their own style and sold directly to the buyers at the pottery festival.
Kind of but Stoke is industrial pottery, Mashiko is handmade pots each crafted individually by hippies in their own style and sold directly to the buyers at the pottery festival.
I was being rather flippant. Probably nearer to Totnes! Hippies in beautiful countryside.
Kind of but Stoke is industrial pottery, Mashiko is handmade pots each crafted individually by hippies in their own style and sold directly to the buyers at the pottery festival.
I was being rather flippant. Probably nearer to Totnes! Hippies in beautiful countryside.
My parents used to take me to Stoke on holiday, we used to love all the different colours of the canal water.
Kind of but Stoke is industrial pottery, Mashiko is handmade pots each crafted individually by hippies in their own style and sold directly to the buyers at the pottery festival.
I was being rather flippant. Probably nearer to Totnes! Hippies in beautiful countryside.
My parents used to take me to Stoke on holiday, we used to love all the different colours of the canal water.
You'd have loved Dhaka in Bangladesh - all the neon-coloured dies dropped straight into the rivers...
Kind of but Stoke is industrial pottery, Mashiko is handmade pots each crafted individually by hippies in their own style and sold directly to the buyers at the pottery festival.
I’m afraid you might have just given me an idea for my next travel piece
Expect me to turn up in your town in a few months
Also, having dissed urban Japan (and it is astonishingly ugly) I’ve just arrived in Tokyo for the first time in 30 years
Fuck me I forgot what a buzz it is. Great city. The energy
Kind of but Stoke is industrial pottery, Mashiko is handmade pots each crafted individually by hippies in their own style and sold directly to the buyers at the pottery festival.
I was being rather flippant. Probably nearer to Totnes! Hippies in beautiful countryside.
My parents used to take me to Stoke on holiday, we used to love all the different colours of the canal water.
You'd have loved Dhaka in Bangladesh - all the neon-coloured dies dropped straight into the rivers...
"Great empires always fall, pushed by their own leaders. Just think of the role played in Britain’s decline by the Liberals who blundered into the First World War, permanently crippling the world’s dominant empire. Or the damage done to France by Napoleon III’s imperial blunders. Or the fumbling of autocrats in China, Russia and Germany in the last century.
The US, still the world’s only true empire, now confronts the reality of two unserious presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, each threatening its viability. Americans and the rest of what’s left of the liberal world have to hope that our intrinsic advantages in demography, finance, technology and resources will survive the presidencies of either of these awful candidates."
Wow, Iain Dale saying three by elections after Kemi becomes LOTO. Sunak, Dowden and one other to go. Mordaunt, Shapps and Mogg to be parachuted in, short circuiting the mandatory candidate selection process.
No Jonathan Gullis?
Yes please! A few failed Tory retreads trying to blag their way into the Commons a mere few weeks after being chucked out. The Lib Dem leaflets practically write themselves. Shapps and JRM are toxic waste, and I'm sure the next leader of the Tories will relish Penny Mordaunt breathing down their neck.
Wow, Iain Dale saying three by elections after Kemi becomes LOTO. Sunak, Dowden and one other to go. Mordaunt, Shapps and Mogg to be parachuted in, short circuiting the mandatory candidate selection process.
No Jonathan Gullis?
I'd be amazed if any of these parachutes actually happens.
I'd be surprised if Rishi goes after he said he will serve a full term. This speculation comes after weekend stories that Reform had a big name lined up for Rishi's seat.
Big name? That's one with a lot of letters I assume? Farage, Anderson and Tice are already elected, that's it for public recognition.
Now it looks like Trump might win, Labour sending over 100 staff to campaign for Harris suddenly looks incredibly stupid. Bewilderingly stupid. We could alienate the global superpower and our closest and most important ally
Your posts are getting more desperate, are you expecting Trump to win now.
What is the appropriate response to Trump?
Even if one were to be bullish about Harris's chances, and give Trump only a small chance of victory - 1-in-5, perhaps - that's still a 20% chance of a wannabe fascist being elected. The real problem is that he can say these things openly and it has no effect on his level of support.
Extraordinary intervention from Donald Trump’s own former Chief of Staff John Kelly. The fmr general says Trump meets the definition of a fascist, would govern like a dictator and has no understanding of the Constitution or the concept of rule of law.
Kelly says Trump would not want to be pictured with amputee veterans saying that “it wouldn’t look good for me.”
Kelly confirms Trump spoke positively of Hitler as president.
“He commented more than once that, ‘You know, Hitler did some good things, too.”
Kelly says Trump has no understanding of the constitution or American history, uniquely among all holders of the office.
He did not understand that Kelly and other officials took oaths to the constitution which superseded personal loyalty to him.
“He and I talked about it — it was a new concept for him, I guess is the best way to put it, and I don’t think it’s one he ever totally accepted.”
Your posts are getting more desperate, are you expecting Trump to win now.
What is the appropriate response to Trump?
Even if one were to be bullish about Harris's chances, and give Trump only a small chance of victory - 1-in-5, perhaps - that's still a 20% chance of a wannabe fascist being elected. The real problem is that he can say these things openly and it has no effect on his level of support.
Trumps a narcissist he just goes for grabbing headlines. The Dems feed his hunger by bigging him up, Like a two year old having a tantrum you just ignore it until he quietens down.
Now it looks like Trump might win, Labour sending over 100 staff to campaign for Harris suddenly looks incredibly stupid. Bewilderingly stupid. We could alienate the global superpower and our closest and most important ally
The dafter thing is HMG has now lost the moral high ground when complaining about electoral interference. Worried about Putin ? Well we do it too and quite overtly.
Your posts are getting more desperate, are you expecting Trump to win now.
What is the appropriate response to Trump?
Even if one were to be bullish about Harris's chances, and give Trump only a small chance of victory - 1-in-5, perhaps - that's still a 20% chance of a wannabe fascist being elected. The real problem is that he can say these things openly and it has no effect on his level of support.
Trumps a narcissist he just goes for grabbing headlines. The Dems feed his hunger by bigging him up, Like a two year old having a tantrum you just ignore it until he quietens down.
Your posts are getting more desperate, are you expecting Trump to win now.
What is the appropriate response to Trump?
Even if one were to be bullish about Harris's chances, and give Trump only a small chance of victory - 1-in-5, perhaps - that's still a 20% chance of a wannabe fascist being elected. The real problem is that he can say these things openly and it has no effect on his level of support.
I think it’s because Europeans and Latin Americans had personal experience of living under fascism (ie not “just” fighting in WW2) and they understand what it means and how to spot it
Kind of but Stoke is industrial pottery, Mashiko is handmade pots each crafted individually by hippies in their own style and sold directly to the buyers at the pottery festival.
I was being rather flippant. Probably nearer to Totnes! Hippies in beautiful countryside.
My parents used to take me to Stoke on holiday, we used to love all the different colours of the canal water.
You'd have loved Dhaka in Bangladesh - all the neon-coloured dies dropped straight into the rivers...
Extraordinary intervention from Donald Trump’s own former Chief of Staff John Kelly. The fmr general says Trump meets the definition of a fascist, would govern like a dictator and has no understanding of the Constitution or the concept of rule of law.
Kelly says Trump would not want to be pictured with amputee veterans saying that “it wouldn’t look good for me.”
Kelly confirms Trump spoke positively of Hitler as president.
“He commented more than once that, ‘You know, Hitler did some good things, too.”
Kelly says Trump has no understanding of the constitution or American history, uniquely among all holders of the office.
He did not understand that Kelly and other officials took oaths to the constitution which superseded personal loyalty to him.
“He and I talked about it — it was a new concept for him, I guess is the best way to put it, and I don’t think it’s one he ever totally accepted.”
Now it looks like Trump might win, Labour sending over 100 staff to campaign for Harris suddenly looks incredibly stupid. Bewilderingly stupid. We could alienate the global superpower and our closest and most important ally
Every presidential election has had campaigners going from all UK political parties. The Conservatives have travelled in the past and supported both Democrats and Republicans. That would make every party every time idiotic. The biggest surprise is, that like other stuff, you only just became aware of it.
Now it looks like Trump might win, Labour sending over 100 staff to campaign for Harris suddenly looks incredibly stupid. Bewilderingly stupid. We could alienate the global superpower and our closest and most important ally
Every presidential election has had campaigners going from all UK political parties. The Conservatives have travelled in the past and supported both Democrats and Republicans. That would make every party every time idiotic. The biggest surprise is, that like other stuff, you only just became aware of it.
The idiocy is making it seem official by putting out a tweet offering to sort accommodation
Still not as bad as Major sharing intelligence on Clinton
Your posts are getting more desperate, are you expecting Trump to win now.
What is the appropriate response to Trump?
Even if one were to be bullish about Harris's chances, and give Trump only a small chance of victory - 1-in-5, perhaps - that's still a 20% chance of a wannabe fascist being elected. The real problem is that he can say these things openly and it has no effect on his level of support.
Trumps a narcissist he just goes for grabbing headlines. The Dems feed his hunger by bigging him up, Like a two year old having a tantrum you just ignore it until he quietens down.
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
That’s before Trumps Hitler love-in !
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
Trump’s supporters will love it.
They want to “drain the swamp, imprison the swamp, and in some cases, execute the swamp.”
Now it looks like Trump might win, Labour sending over 100 staff to campaign for Harris suddenly looks incredibly stupid. Bewilderingly stupid. We could alienate the global superpower and our closest and most important ally
Every presidential election has had campaigners going from all UK political parties. The Conservatives have travelled in the past and supported both Democrats and Republicans. That would make every party every time idiotic. The biggest surprise is, that like other stuff, you only just became aware of it.
Of course they’ve done this
What makes this new is the overt quasi official status of it and the boasting about it and - worst of all - the utter dumbness of doing it with a volatile character like Trump. Who WILL take revenge
Labour are a bunch of kids. Stupid kids at that. Absolutely fucking stupid cretins
Now it looks like Trump might win, Labour sending over 100 staff to campaign for Harris suddenly looks incredibly stupid. Bewilderingly stupid. We could alienate the global superpower and our closest and most important ally
Every presidential election has had campaigners going from all UK political parties. The Conservatives have travelled in the past and supported both Democrats and Republicans. That would make every party every time idiotic. The biggest surprise is, that like other stuff, you only just became aware of it.
Of course they’ve done this
What makes this new is the overt quasi official status of it and the boasting about it and - worst of all - the utter dumbness of doing it with a volatile character like Trump. Who WILL take revenge
Labour are a bunch of kids. Stupid kids at that. Absolutely fucking stupid cretins
The only thing that is slightly different is that an email was forwarded on to a newspaper. Beyond that this story is the same as every election since at least the 80s with some people travelling to help out political friends in other english speaking countries - the US / Canada / UK / Australia all use the same experts to help win elections..
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
That’s before Trumps Hitler love-in !
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
Trump’s supporters will love it.
They want to “drain the swamp, imprison the swamp, and in some cases, execute the swamp.”
Now it looks like Trump might win, Labour sending over 100 staff to campaign for Harris suddenly looks incredibly stupid. Bewilderingly stupid. We could alienate the global superpower and our closest and most important ally
Every presidential election has had campaigners going from all UK political parties. The Conservatives have travelled in the past and supported both Democrats and Republicans. That would make every party every time idiotic. The biggest surprise is, that like other stuff, you only just became aware of it.
Of course they’ve done this
What makes this new is the overt quasi official status of it and the boasting about it and - worst of all - the utter dumbness of doing it with a volatile character like Trump. Who WILL take revenge
Labour are a bunch of kids. Stupid kids at that. Absolutely fucking stupid cretins
Labour are a bunch of sixth-formers playing a politics.
I think Starmer is one person Trump could easily get the better of in any negotiation.
Now it looks like Trump might win, Labour sending over 100 staff to campaign for Harris suddenly looks incredibly stupid. Bewilderingly stupid. We could alienate the global superpower and our closest and most important ally
"Great empires always fall, pushed by their own leaders. Just think of the role played in Britain’s decline by the Liberals who blundered into the First World War, permanently crippling the world’s dominant empire. Or the damage done to France by Napoleon III’s imperial blunders. Or the fumbling of autocrats in China, Russia and Germany in the last century.
The US, still the world’s only true empire, now confronts the reality of two unserious presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, each threatening its viability. Americans and the rest of what’s left of the liberal world have to hope that our intrinsic advantages in demography, finance, technology and resources will survive the presidencies of either of these awful candidates."
Highly disingenuous analysis. You choose Trump because you are willing to enable despotic dictatorship. Harris offers the liberal alternative. If you don't choose her it's because you don't want a liberal world.
"Great empires always fall, pushed by their own leaders. Just think of the role played in Britain’s decline by the Liberals who blundered into the First World War, permanently crippling the world’s dominant empire. Or the damage done to France by Napoleon III’s imperial blunders. Or the fumbling of autocrats in China, Russia and Germany in the last century.
The US, still the world’s only true empire, now confronts the reality of two unserious presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, each threatening its viability. Americans and the rest of what’s left of the liberal world have to hope that our intrinsic advantages in demography, finance, technology and resources will survive the presidencies of either of these awful candidates."
Comments
Can you think of anyone better qualified for a lengthy stretch?
Very good news indeed.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/harris-trump-presidential-election-live-updates-rcna176306
https://www.upliftcampaigns.com/2024azearly
The US, still the world’s only true empire, now confronts the reality of two unserious presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, each threatening its viability. Americans and the rest of what’s left of the liberal world have to hope that our intrinsic advantages in demography, finance, technology and resources will survive the presidencies of either of these awful candidates."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/10/18/can-the-west-survive-four-years-of-harris-or-trump/
https://consequence.net/2024/10/insane-clown-posse-violent-j-kamala-harris/
2) The Supreme Court isn't impartial, they've deliberately stalled then made up a bunch of weird restrictions on the evidence the prosecution is allowed to show the jury
My god. Urban japan is fucking ugly. To a quite stupefying extent. How do you cope?
This is not a dig at Japan nor a taunt at you - merely an observation. Japanese towns and cities are hideously utilitarian and blighted by some of the most powerfully offensive architecture on earth
I guess the upsides - the food, the safety, the kind people, the still-lovely mountains - are a major compensation
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/harris-trump-presidential-election-live-updates-rcna176306/rcrd60827
It's such a great town. The thing about living in Japan is if you're in a city it's probably not that pretty, but if you're in the countryside it tends to be very closed and conservative and "this is a local shop for local people"-ish. But Mashiko has a much more open culture, based on people deciding they want to be potters and moving here in their 30s and 40s, and there are a bunch of people trying other stuff so it's not just pottery. It's just an incredible place to live, there's nowhere else like it in Japan (or the world I guess, since there's nowhere in the world like Japan)
Expect me to turn up in your town in a few months
Also, having dissed urban Japan (and it is astonishingly ugly) I’ve just arrived in Tokyo for the first time in 30 years
Fuck me I forgot what a buzz it is. Great city. The energy
A few failed Tory retreads trying to blag their way into the Commons a mere few weeks after being chucked out. The Lib Dem leaflets practically write themselves. Shapps and JRM are toxic waste, and I'm sure the next leader of the Tories will relish Penny Mordaunt breathing down their neck.
“I need the kind of generals that Hitler had,” Trump said. “People who were totally loyal to him, that follow orders.”
https://x.com/YAppelbaum/status/1848813605703086452
Now it looks like Trump might win, Labour sending over 100 staff to campaign for Harris suddenly looks incredibly stupid. Bewilderingly stupid. We could alienate the global superpower and our closest and most important ally
Fucking idiots
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/23/keir-starmer-donald-trump-labour-election-interference-claim
Even if one were to be bullish about Harris's chances, and give Trump only a small chance of victory - 1-in-5, perhaps - that's still a 20% chance of a wannabe fascist being elected. The real problem is that he can say these things openly and it has no effect on his level of support.
Extraordinary intervention from Donald Trump’s own former Chief of Staff John Kelly. The fmr general says Trump meets the definition of a fascist, would govern like a dictator and has no understanding of the Constitution or the concept of rule of law.
Kelly says Trump would not want to be pictured with amputee veterans saying that “it wouldn’t look good for me.”
Kelly confirms Trump spoke positively of Hitler as president.
“He commented more than once that, ‘You know, Hitler did some good things, too.”
Kelly says Trump has no understanding of the constitution or American history, uniquely among all holders of the office.
He did not understand that Kelly and other officials took oaths to the constitution which superseded personal loyalty to him.
“He and I talked about it — it was a new concept for him, I guess is the best way to put it, and I don’t think it’s one he ever totally accepted.”
https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1848969742943432830
Did you see my message about pancreatic cancer?
NEW THREAD
Still not as bad as Major sharing intelligence on Clinton
They want to “drain the swamp, imprison the swamp, and in some cases, execute the swamp.”
What makes this new is the overt quasi official status of it and the boasting about it and - worst of all - the utter dumbness of doing it with a volatile character like Trump. Who WILL take revenge
Labour are a bunch of kids. Stupid kids at that. Absolutely fucking stupid cretins
I think Starmer is one person Trump could easily get the better of in any negotiation.
Essentially, they boil down to: are you a good chap/chapess, and will we get on? The CV and qualification happens well before.
2nd/3rd/final interviews all the same so various people can all corroborate that.