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Could this mean shy (young) Trumpers? – politicalbetting.com

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  • On a completely different topic, I recently saw an Arnold Palmer drink for sale, at a hotel in Greece.

    I expect. these will now always be associated with large hereditary endowments, to institutions, and businesses.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Shouldn't this have come out a couple of weeks ago ?
    Bit of a wasted effort now.

    James Cleverly spent £655 a head on in-flight catering for one-day trip to Rwanda
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/21/james-cleverly-spent-655-a-head-on-in-flight-catering-for-one-day-trip-to-rwanda
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,982
    Taz said:
    Worst news possible. Ministers "taking charge" is the death knell to any project.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    On a completely different topic, I recently saw an Arnold Palmer drink for sale, at a hotel in Greece.

    I expect. these will now always be associated with large hereditary endowments, to institutions, and businesses.

    I imagine it was very small, overpriced and forced on you whether you wanted it or not.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 67
    TimS said:

    I see it’s boys’ club this morning on PB.

    Meanwhile the enshittification of business travel exhibit B: Eurostar this morning to Paris in standard class. Long queues, virtually no free seats in the waiting area and a Pret coffee that was more like a hot milkshake than a cappuccino.

    Every day is boy's club on PB.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Oh my fucking god I found my old home

    I can see my old bedroom window. And the apartment block is exactly as crummy as I remember it

    Superb

    You remind me of the John Major PPB when he rediscovered Coldharbour Road from the back of a cab.

    I found that a little cringe too.
    I cannot fathom what it is about the post above that you object to.
    Have you seen the PPB to which I am alluding?
    Yes, I remember it.
    I just don't understand what you objected to about Leon's post.
    I wasn't objecting to anything. Merely commenting on the melodramatic similarity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    The CIA analyst who triggered Trump’s first impeachment asks: Was it worth it?
    The whistleblower’s lonely stand upended his career and put his life at risk. Now he’s speaking about it for the first time.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/20/cia-analyst-whistleblower-trump-impeachment-ukraine/
    ...He described his experience, which included death threats that upended his life and required the CIA to provide him with round-the-clock protection, in interviews over the past two months. The Washington Post is granting him anonymity because of the ongoing concerns for his safety and has confirmed his account with more than a half dozen former senior officials.

    His story mirrors those of dozens of other bureaucrats, diplomats, intelligence analysts, FBI agents, politicians and military officers who stood up to what they saw as efforts by Trump to subvert the country’s democracy. Some of these officials were fired or resigned in protest. Others sought to temper Trump’s demands without alienating him and, in the process, protect themselves and their institutions from retribution...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited October 21
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    It is really sad if it is true

    As you say, one of the great joys of london is - was - just nipping into the national gallery to look at maybe one single painting for five minutes - the Rokeby Venus or Whisteljacket

    If that is taken away from us by Tarquins with paint

    Fuck em
    London is great like that, with so many of the galleries and museums not enforcing entry charges so you can just walk around on a lunch break if you’re nearby.

    Having long queues for searches makes a big difference to the more causal visitor, and probably doesn’t solve the problem of small amounts of liquids (or powdered paint to be mixed with water) getting through carried on the person.

    Oh, and it also probably means that hundreds of genuine visitors are going to have to throw away a load of expensive toiletries and cosmetics every day, getting caught up in a system designed to keep a handful of well-known idiots from causing carnage.
  • FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Are they not getting laid because they are Trump supporters? Or are they Trump supporters because they are not getting laid?

    Probably both, which is how you get a doom loop.
    All very self comforting.

    But, despite what we might wish, large numbers of Trump voters are utterly normal. The idea that they are all nutty MAGA idiots is comforting, but wrong.


    Sky Marshal Tehat Meru: To fight the bug, we must understand the bug.
    They are low information voters (I use that term neutrally) who don't realise the consequences of voting for Trump, probably even after voting for him and not actually liking the consequences.
    Coming from a hapless fuckwit like you, who can’t even read an Amazon chart, that is ironic indeed

    Even when you have the information in front of your eyes, you are too stupid to understand it
    You do pick random, uninformed and actually quite stupid fights with people.
    Most dysfunctional people do that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    It is really sad if it is true

    As you say, one of the great joys of london is - was - just nipping into the national gallery to look at maybe one single painting for five minutes - the Rokeby Venus or Whisteljacket

    If that is taken away from us by Tarquins with paint

    Fuck em
    No actual statement from the NG, I see, just what some person on Twitter imagines to be the case.

    Blockbuster exhibition? And some other reason for security? Museums and galleries have always varied their security.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Nigelb said:

    The CIA analyst who triggered Trump’s first impeachment asks: Was it worth it?
    The whistleblower’s lonely stand upended his career and put his life at risk. Now he’s speaking about it for the first time.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/20/cia-analyst-whistleblower-trump-impeachment-ukraine/
    ...He described his experience, which included death threats that upended his life and required the CIA to provide him with round-the-clock protection, in interviews over the past two months. The Washington Post is granting him anonymity because of the ongoing concerns for his safety and has confirmed his account with more than a half dozen former senior officials.

    His story mirrors those of dozens of other bureaucrats, diplomats, intelligence analysts, FBI agents, politicians and military officers who stood up to what they saw as efforts by Trump to subvert the country’s democracy. Some of these officials were fired or resigned in protest. Others sought to temper Trump’s demands without alienating him and, in the process, protect themselves and their institutions from retribution...

    Hello weasel words.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    We still live in a high trust society.

    God, some political hacks are such drama queens. We were removing litter bins from London stations in the early 90s because the IRA were putting bombs in them, and holding football fans behind huge wire cages until Hillsborough. That wasn’t exactly high trust.

    The same hacks will be all for expanding stop and search, so long as it doesn’t affect them personally.
    Though Downing Street is still fenced off, with armed guards, despite this having originally been a temporary precaution against the IRA.
    The fact this has been the case for decades rather demonstrates the point that London wasn’t some security-free paradise right up until the point just stop oil arrived.
    Another piece of security theatre to join the rest, though.

    Museums used to be wander in, wander out.

    How long before its libraries etc? How long before it is something you really care about?
    Museums are something I do really care about. Our borders with the EU are another thing I care about - they used to be virtually wander in, wander out too. I think you’re misreading my point. It’s the golden age nonsense from hacks who don’t like JSO, who are trying to argue that this particular direct action group have transformed Britain from a freedom loving paradise to a security police state.
    Just for now, stores remain 'wander in, wander out' but the current spate of aggravated shop-lifting may put an end to that. I recall a corner store in a 'nice' part of Washington DC with an armed security guard on the door, paying close attention to everyone entering and leaving. That was in 1978.
    Back in the early 1990s, I knew a lady who worked at a school in Stepney Green. It was apparently the first state school to have 'security' measures for staff and pupils. ISTR it caused a little media comment at the time.

    Annoyingly, I cannot remember the school's name, or what the 'controversial' measures were. I'm guessing they were things we would not blink twice at nowdays.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    edited October 21
    More personal vendettas on here this morning than at a Plantagenet family reunion during the War of the Roses.
  • TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I see it’s boys’ club this morning on PB.

    Meanwhile the enshittification of business travel exhibit B: Eurostar this morning to Paris in standard class. Long queues, virtually no free seats in the waiting area and a Pret coffee that was more like a hot milkshake than a cappuccino.

    McDonalds win blind tasting of their coffee vs other chains, regularly.

    The theory is that given reputation and expectations, they try harder. Starfucks & Prat can put any old swill in a cup and sell it.
    Starbucks is the worst. Burnt, bitter stuff which apparently is designed for those American 3 gallon buckets of hot milk they drink over there.

    But as noted last week, Costa - long the awfulest of all - actually served me a very decent cup of coffee at KX station.
    Did you report the Costa franchise to corporate for unauthorised modification of the product?
    Starbucks is overpriced poison.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    Almost all railways cost more than expected. What is now the WCML cost three times the estimate, mostly due to having to buy the land at vastly inflated prices but also due to engineering difficulties (e.g. Kilsby Tunnel).

    In this case, the real culprit seems to be chronic mismanagement with the chopping and changing of requirements and specs by the government, coupled with some shockingly badly drawn up contracts.

    Why or how this will be solved by direct government control is unclear to me. I would have thought it more likely to make matters considerably worse.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    Nigelb said:

    Shouldn't this have come out a couple of weeks ago ?
    Bit of a wasted effort now.

    James Cleverly spent £655 a head on in-flight catering for one-day trip to Rwanda
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/21/james-cleverly-spent-655-a-head-on-in-flight-catering-for-one-day-trip-to-rwanda

    That's a can of diet coke and a small packet of peanuts on most low cost airlines, isn't it?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    FF43 said:

    .

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Are they not getting laid because they are Trump supporters? Or are they Trump supporters because they are not getting laid?

    Probably both, which is how you get a doom loop.
    All very self comforting.

    But, despite what we might wish, large numbers of Trump voters are utterly normal. The idea that they are all nutty MAGA idiots is comforting, but wrong.


    Sky Marshal Tehat Meru: To fight the bug, we must understand the bug.
    They are low information voters (I use that term neutrally) who don't realise the consequences of voting for Trump, probably even after voting for him and not actually liking the consequences.
    Coming from a hapless fuckwit like you, who can’t even read an Amazon chart, that is ironic indeed

    Even when you have the information in front of your eyes, you are too stupid to understand it
    You do pick random, uninformed and actually quite stupid fights with people.
    No, I pick them with stupid people, like you
    I suppose we must all find comfort where we can. Shame it's all pretty unpleasant and boring for everyone else.
    Wait. I was making a cogent and relevant point not randomly attacking you for no reason

    You were accusing Trump voters of being low intelligence, low information voters. I was noting that all the evidence on here suggests you are not particularly intelligent (sorry, but that is the case) and as for “information”, even when you are given it, you are unable to correctly process it

    So I don’t see why you feel the right to mock and despise all Trump voters as “dumb”. Yet you go right ahead anyway. We see this embarrassing pattern all the time on PB
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I see it’s boys’ club this morning on PB.

    Meanwhile the enshittification of business travel exhibit B: Eurostar this morning to Paris in standard class. Long queues, virtually no free seats in the waiting area and a Pret coffee that was more like a hot milkshake than a cappuccino.

    McDonalds win blind tasting of their coffee vs other chains, regularly.

    The theory is that given reputation and expectations, they try harder. Starfucks & Prat can put any old swill in a cup and sell it.
    Starbucks is the worst. Burnt, bitter stuff which apparently is designed for those American 3 gallon buckets of hot milk they drink over there.

    But as noted last week, Costa - long the awfulest of all - actually served me a very decent cup of coffee at KX station.
    Did you report the Costa franchise to corporate for unauthorised modification of the product?
    Starbucks is overpriced poison.
    Ask for a Cortado -Costa's is generally good; Caffe Nero varies but can be OK if they remember to warm the glass.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    It’s politically easier to have the project approved with a much lower number than the actual cost, and then to up the price later once serious amounts of money have already been spent.

    Compounding this is government of ever-changing faces in management and ministerial roles, all of whom want to keep changing he scope of the project even when it’s well under way.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Oh my fucking god I found my old home

    I can see my old bedroom window. And the apartment block is exactly as crummy as I remember it

    Superb

    You remind me of the John Major PPB when he rediscovered Coldharbour Road from the back of a cab.

    I found that a little cringe too.
    Now you’re here I’ve been meaning to ask: can you give us some warning when you’re going to write a comment that is in some way insightful, funny, intelligent, witty, sagacious, deft, eloquent, clever or - in fact - in any way even remotely fucking interesting, as I’d like to be here for that once-in-a-lifetime, never-seen-before event?

    Thankyou
    Well being as I am waiting for your first post "that is in some way insightful, funny, intelligent, witty, sagacious, deft, eloquent, clever or - in fact - in any way even remotely fucking interesting", I don't see that I should follow any more rigorous rules.
    Ya see? You have to cut and paste my prose to make any kind of point. QED
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    It is really sad if it is true

    As you say, one of the great joys of london is - was - just nipping into the national gallery to look at maybe one single painting for five minutes - the Rokeby Venus or Whisteljacket

    If that is taken away from us by Tarquins with paint

    Fuck em
    But you have the constant consolation of AI art at your fingertips.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Oh my fucking god I found my old home

    I can see my old bedroom window. And the apartment block is exactly as crummy as I remember it

    Superb

    You remind me of the John Major PPB when he rediscovered Coldharbour Road from the back of a cab.

    I found that a little cringe too.
    Now you’re here I’ve been meaning to ask: can you give us some warning when you’re going to write a comment that is in some way insightful, funny, intelligent, witty, sagacious, deft, eloquent, clever or - in fact - in any way even remotely fucking interesting, as I’d like to be here for that once-in-a-lifetime, never-seen-before event?

    Thankyou
    Well being as I am waiting for your first post "that is in some way insightful, funny, intelligent, witty, sagacious, deft, eloquent, clever or - in fact - in any way even remotely fucking interesting", I don't see that I should follow any more rigorous rules.
    Ya see? You have to cut and paste my prose to make any kind of point. QED
    Have you ever read Hare's works on philosophical language?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    It is really sad if it is true

    As you say, one of the great joys of london is - was - just nipping into the national gallery to look at maybe one single painting for five minutes - the Rokeby Venus or Whisteljacket

    If that is taken away from us by Tarquins with paint

    Fuck em
    But you have the constant consolation of AI art at your fingertips.


    That's handy
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    Re shoplifting. Wore my new Down filled Gant jacket to the Rugby yesterday -first outing after having been bought a month ago in TKMaxx (at a third the Gant price). It still had a massive security tag on the cuff which amused everyone. I no longer have the receipt - off back to TK this morning with a print of my bank statement!
  • ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    Almost all railways cost more than expected. What is now the WCML cost three times the estimate, mostly due to having to buy the land at vastly inflated prices but also due to engineering difficulties (e.g. Kilsby Tunnel).

    In this case, the real culprit seems to be chronic mismanagement with the chopping and changing of requirements and specs by the government, coupled with some shockingly badly drawn up contracts.

    Why or how this will be solved by direct government control is unclear to me. I would have thought it more likely to make matters considerably worse.
    Plus. Cartel pricing and backhanders.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Lord Mandelson calls Wes Streeting 'courageous' as the role of Blairite New Labour torchbearer is clearly passed from David Miliband to Streeting
    "Michael Gove says personal attacks on ex-wife Sarah Vine hurt most in his career - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04v3yv053o
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited October 21
    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    All because of the same 4-5 twats...that have been arrested numerous times. They will just go to a different mueseum, so it doesn't really solve the problem.

    Its like all the barriers supermarkets have put in, it doesn't do anything to stop organised shoplighting gangs, as they know nobody will actually try and stop them.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,210

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I see it’s boys’ club this morning on PB.

    Meanwhile the enshittification of business travel exhibit B: Eurostar this morning to Paris in standard class. Long queues, virtually no free seats in the waiting area and a Pret coffee that was more like a hot milkshake than a cappuccino.

    McDonalds win blind tasting of their coffee vs other chains, regularly.

    The theory is that given reputation and expectations, they try harder. Starfucks & Prat can put any old swill in a cup and sell it.
    Starbucks is the worst. Burnt, bitter stuff which apparently is designed for those American 3 gallon buckets of hot milk they drink over there.

    But as noted last week, Costa - long the awfulest of all - actually served me a very decent cup of coffee at KX station.
    Did you report the Costa franchise to corporate for unauthorised modification of the product?
    Starbucks is overpriced poison.
    I think Nero's is the best of the high street chains. Although, as ever, you are better off finding a small business that prides itself on sourcing its coffee
  • HYUFD said:

    Lord Mandelson calls Wes Streeting 'courageous' as the role of Blairite New Labour torchbearer is clearly passed from David Miliband to Streeting
    "Michael Gove says personal attacks on ex-wife Sarah Vine hurt most in his career - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04v3yv053o

    Gove. I wonder he is planning. Nasty man.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    Almost all railways cost more than expected. What is now the WCML cost three times the estimate, mostly due to having to buy the land at vastly inflated prices but also due to engineering difficulties (e.g. Kilsby Tunnel).

    In this case, the real culprit seems to be chronic mismanagement with the chopping and changing of requirements and specs by the government, coupled with some shockingly badly drawn up contracts.

    Why or how this will be solved by direct government control is unclear to me. I would have thought it more likely to make matters considerably worse.
    IANAE, but it seems to me the biggest problem with HS2 was risk allocation. The government wanted so much of the project's risks put on the contractors, it raised the price massively.

    There is some sense in this, especially if you look at the litigation mess over the Misguided Bus here in Cambridge. But you can go too far in shoving the risk onto the contractors.
  • HYUFD said:

    Lord Mandelson calls Wes Streeting 'courageous' as the role of Blairite New Labour torchbearer is clearly passed from David Miliband to Streeting
    "Michael Gove says personal attacks on ex-wife Sarah Vine hurt most in his career - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04v3yv053o

    Gove. I wonder he is planning. Nasty man.
    Mandy. A man who likes to be heard and respected.
  • More personal vendettas on here this morning than at a Plantagenet family reunion during the War of the Roses.

    Good morning

    Popped in after being with family this weekend, and it is really rather unpleasant reading some of the invective

    Is it really necessary ?
  • HYUFD said:

    Lord Mandelson calls Wes Streeting 'courageous' as the role of Blairite New Labour torchbearer is clearly passed from David Miliband to Streeting
    "Michael Gove says personal attacks on ex-wife Sarah Vine hurt most in his career - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04v3yv053o

    Gove. I wonder he is planning. Nasty man.
    Mandy. A man who likes to be heard and respected.
    Gove could start a new political party.
  • A lot of Trump voters are uneducated.

    On the other hand, some are just understandably seeking that emotionally, rather than intellectually, coherent narrative. The left should be able to provide that, but it can't.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578
    Icarus said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I see it’s boys’ club this morning on PB.

    Meanwhile the enshittification of business travel exhibit B: Eurostar this morning to Paris in standard class. Long queues, virtually no free seats in the waiting area and a Pret coffee that was more like a hot milkshake than a cappuccino.

    McDonalds win blind tasting of their coffee vs other chains, regularly.

    The theory is that given reputation and expectations, they try harder. Starfucks & Prat can put any old swill in a cup and sell it.
    Starbucks is the worst. Burnt, bitter stuff which apparently is designed for those American 3 gallon buckets of hot milk they drink over there.

    But as noted last week, Costa - long the awfulest of all - actually served me a very decent cup of coffee at KX station.
    Did you report the Costa franchise to corporate for unauthorised modification of the product?
    Starbucks is overpriced poison.
    Ask for a Cortado -Costa's is generally good; Caffe Nero varies but can be OK if they remember to warm the glass.
    The depressing thing about getting our own bean to cup machine and sourcing top notch beans roasted just the way we like them is that drinking coffee out is forever a little bit lacking.

    Oh well, at least Waitrose still stock good Brie.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    It’s politically easier to have the project approved with a much lower number than the actual cost, and then to up the price later once serious amounts of money have already been spent.

    Compounding this is government of ever-changing faces in management and ministerial roles, all of whom want to keep changing he scope of the project even when it’s well under way.
    There is no reward for bringing a project in under budget.
  • A lot of Trump voters are uneducated.

    On the other hand, some are just understandably seeking that emotionally, rather than intellectually, coherent narrative. The left should be able to provide that, but it can't.

    Because they refuse to make America great again!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    Almost all railways cost more than expected. What is now the WCML cost three times the estimate, mostly due to having to buy the land at vastly inflated prices but also due to engineering difficulties (e.g. Kilsby Tunnel).

    In this case, the real culprit seems to be chronic mismanagement with the chopping and changing of requirements and specs by the government, coupled with some shockingly badly drawn up contracts.

    Why or how this will be solved by direct government control is unclear to me. I would have thought it more likely to make matters considerably worse.
    IANAE, but it seems to me the biggest problem with HS2 was risk allocation. The government wanted so much of the project's risks put on the contractors, it raised the price massively.

    There is some sense in this, especially if you look at the litigation mess over the Misguided Bus here in Cambridge. But you can go too far in shoving the risk onto the contractors.
    That and the Cheryl Gillan tunnels.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    It’s politically easier to have the project approved with a much lower number than the actual cost, and then to up the price later once serious amounts of money have already been spent.

    Compounding this is government of ever-changing faces in management and ministerial roles, all of whom want to keep changing he scope of the project even when it’s well under way.
    Thirdly - the Government no longer employs anyone who has the skills to supervise the project so issues are not picked up early enough....

    I'm saying that as I have an interview for a contract today that is literally sanity check what our delivery partners are implementing because we don't trust them and we don't have the expertise in house.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited October 21

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I see it’s boys’ club this morning on PB.

    Meanwhile the enshittification of business travel exhibit B: Eurostar this morning to Paris in standard class. Long queues, virtually no free seats in the waiting area and a Pret coffee that was more like a hot milkshake than a cappuccino.

    McDonalds win blind tasting of their coffee vs other chains, regularly.

    The theory is that given reputation and expectations, they try harder. Starfucks & Prat can put any old swill in a cup and sell it.
    Starbucks is the worst. Burnt, bitter stuff which apparently is designed for those American 3 gallon buckets of hot milk they drink over there.

    But as noted last week, Costa - long the awfulest of all - actually served me a very decent cup of coffee at KX station.
    Did you report the Costa franchise to corporate for unauthorised modification of the product?
    Starbucks is overpriced poison.
    I think Nero's is the best of the high street chains. Although, as ever, you are better off finding a small business that prides itself on sourcing its coffee
    The big chains are all expensive but generally OK though usually too hot. A bad cup is not down to the coffee IMO. Their high turnovers means that, at least, the beans are unlikely to be stale. A bad cup is more likely down to the maker I'd say, particularly a tendency to overheat the milk. In some other countries a further challenge is UHT milk - which is disgusting.
  • A lot of Trump voters are uneducated.

    On the other hand, some are just understandably seeking that emotionally, rather than intellectually, coherent narrative. The left should be able to provide that, but it can't.

    Because they refuse to make America great again!
    FDR had the skills for this, as did Democrats even in the Jimmy Carter era.

    I don't know how they're going to find them again so easily, now.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Are they not getting laid because they are Trump supporters? Or are they Trump supporters because they are not getting laid?

    Probably both, which is how you get a doom loop.
    All very self comforting.

    But, despite what we might wish, large numbers of Trump voters are utterly normal. The idea that they are all nutty MAGA idiots is comforting, but wrong.


    Sky Marshal Tehat Meru: To fight the bug, we must understand the bug.
    They are low information voters (I use that term neutrally) who don't realise the consequences of voting for Trump, probably even after voting for him and not actually liking the consequences.
    Coming from a hapless fuckwit like you, who can’t even read an Amazon chart, that is ironic indeed

    Even when you have the information in front of your eyes, you are too stupid to understand it
    You do pick random, uninformed and actually quite stupid fights with people.
    No, I pick them with stupid people, like you
    I suppose we must all find comfort where we can. Shame it's all pretty unpleasant and boring for everyone else.
    Wait. I was making a cogent and relevant point not randomly attacking you for no reason

    You were accusing Trump voters of being low intelligence, low information voters. I was noting that all the evidence on here suggests you are not particularly intelligent (sorry, but that is the case) and as for “information”, even when you are given it, you are unable to correctly process it

    So I don’t see why you feel the right to mock and despise all Trump voters as “dumb”. Yet you go right ahead anyway. We see this embarrassing pattern all the time on PB
    You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,502

    Question for the hive mind.

    I’m on the tube. The chap sitting next to me is blithely writing a Government policy document on the budget.

    What should I do?

    Was thinking of trying to sell him on replacing Council Tax with a per person tax. Any others?

    Draw his attention to rules on confidentiality? (Spoilsport, I know)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    It is really sad if it is true

    As you say, one of the great joys of london is - was - just nipping into the national gallery to look at maybe one single painting for five minutes - the Rokeby Venus or Whisteljacket

    If that is taken away from us by Tarquins with paint

    Fuck em
    No actual statement from the NG, I see, just what some person on Twitter imagines to be the case.

    Blockbuster exhibition? And some other reason for security? Museums and galleries have always varied their security.
    I would be genuinely interested in which art gallery/exhibition PBers last attended. I assume from their regular fits of the vapours over security glass & soup that they’re enthusiastic art lovers.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    That is because the National Gallery, 40 years ago, resisted the government's call for museums and galleries to charge for admission.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,946

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    That is because the National Gallery, 40 years ago, resisted the government's call for museums and galleries to charge for admission.
    I've always found the National Portrait Gallery just around the corner less crowded and more interesting.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Were is @Dura_Ace?

    I've not noticed a post for a while but I can't check his activity as he has a private profile.
  • A lot of Trump voters are uneducated.

    On the other hand, some are just understandably seeking that emotionally, rather than intellectually, coherent narrative. The left should be able to provide that, but it can't.

    Because they refuse to make America great again!
    FDR had the skills for this, as did Democrats even in the Jimmy Carter era.

    I don't know how they're going to find them again so easily, now.
    FDR was good. Carter not a great president.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    It is really sad if it is true

    As you say, one of the great joys of london is - was - just nipping into the national gallery to look at maybe one single painting for five minutes - the Rokeby Venus or Whisteljacket

    If that is taken away from us by Tarquins with paint

    Fuck em
    No actual statement from the NG, I see, just what some person on Twitter imagines to be the case.

    Blockbuster exhibition? And some other reason for security? Museums and galleries have always varied their security.
    I would be genuinely interested in which art gallery/exhibition PBers last attended. I assume from their regular fits of the vapours over security glass & soup that they’re enthusiastic art lovers.
    Used to wander into the National Gallery a fair bit, when waiting to meet people in the area.

    Was last there 2 weeks ago.

    It’s quite amusing to hear people claiming that nothing has changed. It has. Rather telling, really.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    His McDonald’s stunt was clever and effective. The Trump campaign has reduced the Dems to spluttering “but but but the McDonalds was actually closed and the security services vetted everyone” - well yeah seeing as he’s a presidential candidate who was nearly killed by two different assassins in the last few weeks
    Yeah. Fair comment. Unfortunately.

    I really have a sense of foreboding. Horrifically Trump may win.

    What is so maddening is that the Dems have, after the experience with Hillary, ended up giving us Kamala. FFS.

    All, the same, fingers crossed. But it really shouldn't be like this.
  • Stocky said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I see it’s boys’ club this morning on PB.

    Meanwhile the enshittification of business travel exhibit B: Eurostar this morning to Paris in standard class. Long queues, virtually no free seats in the waiting area and a Pret coffee that was more like a hot milkshake than a cappuccino.

    McDonalds win blind tasting of their coffee vs other chains, regularly.

    The theory is that given reputation and expectations, they try harder. Starfucks & Prat can put any old swill in a cup and sell it.
    Starbucks is the worst. Burnt, bitter stuff which apparently is designed for those American 3 gallon buckets of hot milk they drink over there.

    But as noted last week, Costa - long the awfulest of all - actually served me a very decent cup of coffee at KX station.
    Did you report the Costa franchise to corporate for unauthorised modification of the product?
    Starbucks is overpriced poison.
    I think Nero's is the best of the high street chains. Although, as ever, you are better off finding a small business that prides itself on sourcing its coffee
    The big chains are all expensive but generally OK though usually too hot. A bad cup is not down to the coffee IMO. Their high turnovers means that, at least, the beans are unlikely to be stale. A bad cup is more likely down to the maker I'd say, particularly a tendency to overheat the milk. In some other countries a further challenge is UHT milk - which is disgusting.
    Nero definitely.
  • Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    His McDonald’s stunt was clever and effective. The Trump campaign has reduced the Dems to spluttering “but but but the McDonalds was actually closed and the security services vetted everyone” - well yeah seeing as he’s a presidential candidate who was nearly killed by two different assassins in the last few weeks
    Yeah. Fair comment. Unfortunately.

    I really have a sense of foreboding. Horrifically Trump may win.

    What is so maddening is that the Dems have, after the experience with Hillary, ended up giving us Kamala. FFS.

    All, the same, fingers crossed. But it really shouldn't be like this.
    It seems to be. Not sure that it really is like this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Are they not getting laid because they are Trump supporters? Or are they Trump supporters because they are not getting laid?

    Probably both, which is how you get a doom loop.
    All very self comforting.

    But, despite what we might wish, large numbers of Trump voters are utterly normal. The idea that they are all nutty MAGA idiots is comforting, but wrong.


    Sky Marshal Tehat Meru: To fight the bug, we must understand the bug.
    They are low information voters (I use that term neutrally) who don't realise the consequences of voting for Trump, probably even after voting for him and not actually liking the consequences.
    Coming from a hapless fuckwit like you, who can’t even read an Amazon chart, that is ironic indeed

    Even when you have the information in front of your eyes, you are too stupid to understand it
    You do pick random, uninformed and actually quite stupid fights with people.
    No, I pick them with stupid people, like you
    I suppose we must all find comfort where we can. Shame it's all pretty unpleasant and boring for everyone else.
    Wait. I was making a cogent and relevant point not randomly attacking you for no reason

    You were accusing Trump voters of being low intelligence, low information voters. I was noting that all the evidence on here suggests you are not particularly intelligent (sorry, but that is the case) and as for “information”, even when you are given it, you are unable to correctly process it

    So I don’t see why you feel the right to mock and despise all Trump voters as “dumb”. Yet you go right ahead anyway. We see this embarrassing pattern all the time on PB
    You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
    Another idiotic post. Have you ever travelled in America? Recently? Trump got 75 MILLION votes last time

    You’re dismissing seventy five million people in the most powerful nation on earth as “low information fools that know nothing about politics and don’t care and can’t even understand consequences”

    This asinine bollocks becomes infuriating. You say this gormless embarassing shit because you’re an unthinking cretin but it probably makes you feel good and superior. That’s it. And that’s me being charitable
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    It’s politically easier to have the project approved with a much lower number than the actual cost, and then to up the price later once serious amounts of money have already been spent.

    Compounding this is government of ever-changing faces in management and ministerial roles, all of whom want to keep changing he scope of the project even when it’s well under way.
    There is no reward for bringing a project in under budget.
    I remember the Wembley stadium redevelopment, where the FA screwed the contractor to the ground and let them deal with anything unexpected that came up during construction.

    The primary contractor underestimated the time and cost involved in the build, and the FA were very careful not to creep the scope even as the project ran late.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wembley_Stadium

    That should be a model for public sector building procurement, even if it results in a different set of problems.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    His McDonald’s stunt was clever and effective. The Trump campaign has reduced the Dems to spluttering “but but but the McDonalds was actually closed and the security services vetted everyone” - well yeah seeing as he’s a presidential candidate who was nearly killed by two different assassins in the last few weeks
    Yeah. Fair comment. Unfortunately.

    I really have a sense of foreboding. Horrifically Trump may win.

    What is so maddening is that the Dems have, after the experience with Hillary, ended up giving us Kamala. FFS.

    All, the same, fingers crossed. But it really shouldn't be like this.
    Yes, if Trump wins, the ululating from righties blaming libs for a moral defective being elected under the righty banner will be deafening.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,946
    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    Almost all railways cost more than expected. What is now the WCML cost three times the estimate, mostly due to having to buy the land at vastly inflated prices but also due to engineering difficulties (e.g. Kilsby Tunnel).

    In this case, the real culprit seems to be chronic mismanagement with the chopping and changing of requirements and specs by the government, coupled with some shockingly badly drawn up contracts.

    Why or how this will be solved by direct government control is unclear to me. I would have thought it more likely to make matters considerably worse.
    Get with the times.

    This is Labour Britain.

    More government is the cure for all our problems, even when the government caused them in the first place.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    It is really sad if it is true

    As you say, one of the great joys of london is - was - just nipping into the national gallery to look at maybe one single painting for five minutes - the Rokeby Venus or Whisteljacket

    If that is taken away from us by Tarquins with paint

    Fuck em
    No actual statement from the NG, I see, just what some person on Twitter imagines to be the case.

    Blockbuster exhibition? And some other reason for security? Museums and galleries have always varied their security.
    I would be genuinely interested in which art gallery/exhibition PBers last attended. I assume from their regular fits of the vapours over security glass & soup that they’re enthusiastic art lovers.
    I visit them all the time. It’s part of my job
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    Almost all railways cost more than expected. What is now the WCML cost three times the estimate, mostly due to having to buy the land at vastly inflated prices but also due to engineering difficulties (e.g. Kilsby Tunnel).

    In this case, the real culprit seems to be chronic mismanagement with the chopping and changing of requirements and specs by the government, coupled with some shockingly badly drawn up contracts.

    Why or how this will be solved by direct government control is unclear to me. I would have thought it more likely to make matters considerably worse.
    IANAE, but it seems to me the biggest problem with HS2 was risk allocation. The government wanted so much of the project's risks put on the contractors, it raised the price massively.

    There is some sense in this, especially if you look at the litigation mess over the Misguided Bus here in Cambridge. But you can go too far in shoving the risk onto the contractors.
    That and the Cheryl Gillan tunnels.
    I think the amount of tunnelling went up from 20km to 60km for phase 1, between the initial budgeting and the current plan.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,502

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Mandelson calls Wes Streeting 'courageous' as the role of Blairite New Labour torchbearer is clearly passed from David Miliband to Streeting
    "Michael Gove says personal attacks on ex-wife Sarah Vine hurt most in his career - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04v3yv053o

    Gove. I wonder he is planning. Nasty man.
    He's interesting, because it's hard to predict what he'll say next. Not that many politicians who you can say that about.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    Almost all railways cost more than expected. What is now the WCML cost three times the estimate, mostly due to having to buy the land at vastly inflated prices but also due to engineering difficulties (e.g. Kilsby Tunnel).

    In this case, the real culprit seems to be chronic mismanagement with the chopping and changing of requirements and specs by the government, coupled with some shockingly badly drawn up contracts.

    Why or how this will be solved by direct government control is unclear to me. I would have thought it more likely to make matters considerably worse.
    IANAE, but it seems to me the biggest problem with HS2 was risk allocation. The government wanted so much of the project's risks put on the contractors, it raised the price massively.

    There is some sense in this, especially if you look at the litigation mess over the Misguided Bus here in Cambridge. But you can go too far in shoving the risk onto the contractors.
    That and the Cheryl Gillan tunnels.
    I think the amount of tunnelling went up from 20km to 60km for phase 1, between the initial budgeting and the current plan.
    The funniest thing about the tunnels is that they've made the disruption far worse than what would have happened with the original plan...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Stocky said:

    Were is @Dura_Ace?

    I've not noticed a post for a while but I can't check his activity as he has a private profile.

    He was off somewhere doing some teaching or learning...
  • HYUFD said:

    Lord Mandelson calls Wes Streeting 'courageous' as the role of Blairite New Labour torchbearer is clearly passed from David Miliband to Streeting
    "Michael Gove says personal attacks on ex-wife Sarah Vine hurt most in his career - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04v3yv053o

    Gove. I wonder he is planning. Nasty man.
    He's interesting, because it's hard to predict what he'll say next. Not that many politicians who you can say that about.
    Definitely. I agree with that.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    Were is @Dura_Ace?

    I've not noticed a post for a while but I can't check his activity as he has a private profile.

    He was off somewhere doing some teaching or learning...
    Immersing himself in Arabic somewhere in the Middle East (Egypt?) Istr?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    Were is @Dura_Ace?

    I've not noticed a post for a while but I can't check his activity as he has a private profile.

    He was off somewhere doing some teaching or learning...
    IIRC he said he was going to Saudi for a few months. Somewhere this website’s title probably doesn’t get past the local internet censors.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    On topic, being young and right wing was never an issue for me wrt dating. Most girls didn't care very much about it and as long as you're not a dickhead on the first date and start espousing the dangers of high tax or quoting Milton Friedman etc... then it doesn't even come into conversation. My wife was an active member of the Swiss leftist party when we met, we're married with two kids now. People who let politics prevent them from forming personal relationships are sad and deserve to be lonely.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Mandelson calls Wes Streeting 'courageous' as the role of Blairite New Labour torchbearer is clearly passed from David Miliband to Streeting
    "Michael Gove says personal attacks on ex-wife Sarah Vine hurt most in his career - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04v3yv053o

    Gove. I wonder he is planning. Nasty man.
    He's interesting, because it's hard to predict what he'll say next. Not that many politicians who you can say that about.
    See, for example, his coming out for Kamala;

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/jacob-heilbrunn/why-michael-gove-supporting-kamala-harris-213283

    Possibly of interest to anyone with a new boss to suck up to.

    But on this, I reckon he's right. Even if you think that Trump has accurately diagnosed the problem, why the hell would anyone trust him to provide the solution? We have seen versions of this movie many times before and we know how it tends to end.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    It’s politically easier to have the project approved with a much lower number than the actual cost, and then to up the price later once serious amounts of money have already been spent.

    Compounding this is government of ever-changing faces in management and ministerial roles, all of whom want to keep changing he scope of the project even when it’s well under way.
    There is no reward for bringing a project in under budget.
    I remember the Wembley stadium redevelopment, where the FA screwed the contractor to the ground and let them deal with anything unexpected that came up during construction.

    The primary contractor underestimated the time and cost involved in the build, and the FA were very careful not to creep the scope even as the project ran late.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wembley_Stadium

    That should be a model for public sector building procurement, even if it results in a different set of problems.
    It's sorta like the RAAC issue. When you design a building or structure, you build it to a design life. Building it to last much longer than that design life can be very expensive, so you tend to design 'down' to that life. (*)

    Imagine a structure that has a 60-year design life (quite long for a building...).

    But what if the structure needs unplanned works after 40 years? Who pays? One approach is to say the client (in this case the government) takes on that cost, which is a risk. Another approach is to say the contractor needs to take on that risk. And as the contractor may not still be around in 40 years, it makes the structure or building stronger than it needs to be, just in case, and insures it against future costs.

    As I said, the Cambridge Misguided bus is an example of where problems within a few years of opening led to mahoosively expensive and long court battles.

    https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2023/06/13/bam-nuttall-settles-cambridge-busway-dispute/

    I don't know what the answer is; place more risk on the contractor, the client takes more risk, or we pay lawyers to sort it out later.

    (*) That does not mean it will automatically need replacing or renewing after that time; just that is the time after which you can expect to need to spend lots of money on it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    It is really sad if it is true

    As you say, one of the great joys of london is - was - just nipping into the national gallery to look at maybe one single painting for five minutes - the Rokeby Venus or Whisteljacket

    If that is taken away from us by Tarquins with paint

    Fuck em
    No actual statement from the NG, I see, just what some person on Twitter imagines to be the case.

    Blockbuster exhibition? And some other reason for security? Museums and galleries have always varied their security.
    I would be genuinely interested in which art gallery/exhibition PBers last attended. I assume from their regular fits of the vapours over security glass & soup that they’re enthusiastic art lovers.
    I went to see the Brian Lalor Retrospective at the Uillinn.

    We were going to wander around the Crawford before it closed for refurbishment, but the cafe inside was gone already, we were hungry, and we didn't make it back to the gallery that day.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 928
    You are reading too many opinion polls, suggest we all take a week out from them.
    Most are giving out confusing messages, best just ignore them, there r will be surprises on Election day due to shifting demographics in individual states.
  • eek said:

    Stocky said:

    Were is @Dura_Ace?

    I've not noticed a post for a while but I can't check his activity as he has a private profile.

    He was off somewhere doing some teaching or learning...
    Immersing himself in Arabic somewhere in the Middle East (Egypt?) Istr?
    I have only travelled to a few countries in the Middle East so my experience is limited. I recommend this book I just read about the region. Arabia by Levison Wood. Some of you may have read it. It is very insightful and a lot of fun!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:
    Is there any general set of reasons for the regular massive cost increase of public projects as they go along?

    Two particular puzzles: Isn't there considerable expertise available in accurately costing things?

    And isn't it politically cleverer to slightly overestimate so that tax payer funded things often turn out 'under budget'.
    It’s politically easier to have the project approved with a much lower number than the actual cost, and then to up the price later once serious amounts of money have already been spent.

    Compounding this is government of ever-changing faces in management and ministerial roles, all of whom want to keep changing he scope of the project even when it’s well under way.
    There is no reward for bringing a project in under budget.
    I remember the Wembley stadium redevelopment, where the FA screwed the contractor to the ground and let them deal with anything unexpected that came up during construction.

    The primary contractor underestimated the time and cost involved in the build, and the FA were very careful not to creep the scope even as the project ran late.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wembley_Stadium

    That should be a model for public sector building procurement, even if it results in a different set of problems.
    It's sorta like the RAAC issue. When you design a building or structure, you build it to a design life. Building it to last much longer than that design life can be very expensive, so you tend to design 'down' to that life. (*)

    Imagine a structure that has a 60-year design life (quite long for a building...).

    But what if the structure needs unplanned works after 40 years? Who pays? One approach is to say the client (in this case the government) takes on that cost, which is a risk. Another approach is to say the contractor needs to take on that risk. And as the contractor may not still be around in 40 years, it makes the structure or building stronger than it needs to be, just in case, and insures it against future costs.

    As I said, the Cambridge Misguided bus is an example of where problems within a few years of opening led to mahoosively expensive and long court battles.

    https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2023/06/13/bam-nuttall-settles-cambridge-busway-dispute/

    I don't know what the answer is; place more risk on the contractor, the client takes more risk, or we pay lawyers to sort it out later.

    (*) That does not mean it will automatically need replacing or renewing after that time; just that is the time after which you can expect to need to spend lots of money on it.
    Ultimately the client always pays- either by fixing things when they break or upfront by paying more for the initial project.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    Stocky said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I see it’s boys’ club this morning on PB.

    Meanwhile the enshittification of business travel exhibit B: Eurostar this morning to Paris in standard class. Long queues, virtually no free seats in the waiting area and a Pret coffee that was more like a hot milkshake than a cappuccino.

    McDonalds win blind tasting of their coffee vs other chains, regularly.

    The theory is that given reputation and expectations, they try harder. Starfucks & Prat can put any old swill in a cup and sell it.
    Starbucks is the worst. Burnt, bitter stuff which apparently is designed for those American 3 gallon buckets of hot milk they drink over there.

    But as noted last week, Costa - long the awfulest of all - actually served me a very decent cup of coffee at KX station.
    Did you report the Costa franchise to corporate for unauthorised modification of the product?
    Starbucks is overpriced poison.
    I think Nero's is the best of the high street chains. Although, as ever, you are better off finding a small business that prides itself on sourcing its coffee
    The big chains are all expensive but generally OK though usually too hot. A bad cup is not down to the coffee IMO. Their high turnovers means that, at least, the beans are unlikely to be stale. A bad cup is more likely down to the maker I'd say, particularly a tendency to overheat the milk. In some other countries a further challenge is UHT milk - which is disgusting.
    Probably part of the coffee problem is due to people asking for exotic variants with which they are unfamiliar and then not liking the slightly odd flavour, whereas McDonalds basically sells a cup of coffee. You see the same with tea where Earl Grey and lapsang souchong sound posh but are acquired tastes.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 499
    edited October 21
    FF43 said:

    You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.

    The characteristics that best predict low voter information, all of which have more effect than partisan affiliation, are being (1) young, (2) poorly-educated, (3) female, (4) low income, and (5) non-white. The only one of these characteristics where the Republicans have a lead is poorly-educated (51-45 among voters without a batchelor's degree); all the others are majority Democrat. Young voters (the biggest determinant of low voter information) split 66-34; female voters 51-44; low income voters 58-36; non-white voters from 61-35 (Hispanic) to 83-12 (black)
  • theakes said:

    You are reading too many opinion polls, suggest we all take a week out from them.
    Most are giving out confusing messages, best just ignore them, there r will be surprises on Election day due to shifting demographics in individual states.

    I agree with you. Timeout and see the state of play in one week to ten days.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    It is really sad if it is true

    As you say, one of the great joys of london is - was - just nipping into the national gallery to look at maybe one single painting for five minutes - the Rokeby Venus or Whisteljacket

    If that is taken away from us by Tarquins with paint

    Fuck em
    No actual statement from the NG, I see, just what some person on Twitter imagines to be the case.

    Blockbuster exhibition? And some other reason for security? Museums and galleries have always varied their security.
    I would be genuinely interested in which art gallery/exhibition PBers last attended. I assume from their regular fits of the vapours over security glass & soup that they’re enthusiastic art lovers.
    I went to see the Brian Lalor Retrospective at the Uillinn.

    We were going to wander around the Crawford before it closed for refurbishment, but the cafe inside was gone already, we were hungry, and we didn't make it back to the gallery that day.
    The Burrell Collection in Glasgow (Southside) is fantastic. Well worth the effort of getting to it. They hosted a Degas exhibition I went to, a year or two back.

    I consider "fits of vapours" an appropriate response to twonks compromising the pleasures of gallery-cruising.
  • FossFoss Posts: 991
    edited October 21

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.

    Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society.

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1847976667316203639

    Sad. My London days ended 40 years ago and one of the many delights was to be able to go into the National Gallery regularly and often just for a short time at some point in a working day.
    It is really sad if it is true

    As you say, one of the great joys of london is - was - just nipping into the national gallery to look at maybe one single painting for five minutes - the Rokeby Venus or Whisteljacket

    If that is taken away from us by Tarquins with paint

    Fuck em
    No actual statement from the NG, I see, just what some person on Twitter imagines to be the case.

    Blockbuster exhibition? And some other reason for security? Museums and galleries have always varied their security.
    I would be genuinely interested in which art gallery/exhibition PBers last attended. I assume from their regular fits of the vapours over security glass & soup that they’re enthusiastic art lovers.
    The big-name galleries will be able to afford the security, the smaller ones won't. So no more touring Monets in York or Hepworths in Wakefield.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    MaxPB said:

    On topic, being young and right wing was never an issue for me wrt dating. Most girls didn't care very much about it and as long as you're not a dickhead on the first date and start espousing the dangers of high tax or quoting Milton Friedman etc... then it doesn't even come into conversation. My wife was an active member of the Swiss leftist party when we met, we're married with two kids now. People who let politics prevent them from forming personal relationships are sad and deserve to be lonely.

    In my youth meeting girls was a common reason for young men to join the Young Conservatives.
    I went once, but really didn't fancy any of the talent on offer. Stuck to the Students Union.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    MaxPB said:

    On topic, being young and right wing was never an issue for me wrt dating. Most girls didn't care very much about it and as long as you're not a dickhead on the first date and start espousing the dangers of high tax or quoting Milton Friedman etc... then it doesn't even come into conversation. My wife was an active member of the Swiss leftist party when we met, we're married with two kids now. People who let politics prevent them from forming personal relationships are sad and deserve to be lonely.

    Question of degree though.

    As long as there's some common ground, there's somewhere a relationship can grow. From this distance, America's problem seems to be the complete lack of common ground.

    Centrists are pompous, boring and terrible at explaining stuff, let alone telling convincing stories. There, I've said it- happy now? But they are also essential at holding societies together.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited October 21
    MaxPB said:

    On topic, being young and right wing was never an issue for me wrt dating. Most girls didn't care very much about it and as long as you're not a dickhead on the first date and start espousing the dangers of high tax or quoting Milton Friedman etc... then it doesn't even come into conversation. My wife was an active member of the Swiss leftist party when we met, we're married with two kids now. People who let politics prevent them from forming personal relationships are sad and deserve to be lonely.

    If you are a rich, high earning good looking rightwinger yes I suspect you do rather better with getting a date than a low income, spotty rightwinger living in their mother's basement
  • MaxPB said:

    On topic, being young and right wing was never an issue for me wrt dating. Most girls didn't care very much about it and as long as you're not a dickhead on the first date and start espousing the dangers of high tax or quoting Milton Friedman etc... then it doesn't even come into conversation. My wife was an active member of the Swiss leftist party when we met, we're married with two kids now. People who let politics prevent them from forming personal relationships are sad and deserve to be lonely.

    I agree with you and leave out religion as well!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,502
    MaxPB said:

    On topic, being young and right wing was never an issue for me wrt dating. Most girls didn't care very much about it and as long as you're not a dickhead on the first date and start espousing the dangers of high tax or quoting Milton Friedman etc... then it doesn't even come into conversation. My wife was an active member of the Swiss leftist party when we met, we're married with two kids now. People who let politics prevent them from forming personal relationships are sad and deserve to be lonely.

    Agreed, within reason - as you say, the exception is if it dominates the early conversation. In general politics is either not that important to people (in which case who cares) or deep and complex (in which case it's something to discuss with interest at a later date). I just shy away from people who have strong but uninformed views which they thrust on you at the first opportunity.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    edited October 21
    EU Yes lead expanding a bit, now up to 9,152 votes (50.30% to 49.70%). 20,000 or so outstanding. I guess we're not going to have to learn the Moldovan for hanging chad after all?
    https://bsky.app/profile/borlingon.bsky.social/post/3l6z52skndu24
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    Stocky said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I see it’s boys’ club this morning on PB.

    Meanwhile the enshittification of business travel exhibit B: Eurostar this morning to Paris in standard class. Long queues, virtually no free seats in the waiting area and a Pret coffee that was more like a hot milkshake than a cappuccino.

    McDonalds win blind tasting of their coffee vs other chains, regularly.

    The theory is that given reputation and expectations, they try harder. Starfucks & Prat can put any old swill in a cup and sell it.
    Starbucks is the worst. Burnt, bitter stuff which apparently is designed for those American 3 gallon buckets of hot milk they drink over there.

    But as noted last week, Costa - long the awfulest of all - actually served me a very decent cup of coffee at KX station.
    Did you report the Costa franchise to corporate for unauthorised modification of the product?
    Starbucks is overpriced poison.
    I think Nero's is the best of the high street chains. Although, as ever, you are better off finding a small business that prides itself on sourcing its coffee
    The big chains are all expensive but generally OK though usually too hot. A bad cup is not down to the coffee IMO. Their high turnovers means that, at least, the beans are unlikely to be stale. A bad cup is more likely down to the maker I'd say, particularly a tendency to overheat the milk. In some other countries a further challenge is UHT milk - which is disgusting.
    Probably part of the coffee problem is due to people asking for exotic variants with which they are unfamiliar and then not liking the slightly odd flavour, whereas McDonalds basically sells a cup of coffee. You see the same with tea where Earl Grey and lapsang souchong sound posh but are acquired tastes.
    Drinking it without milk helps. I gave up on milk-in-coffee many years ago and appreciate coffee much more.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    FF43 said:

    You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.

    The characteristics that best predict low voter information, all of which have more effect than partisan affiliation, are being (1) young, (2) poorly-educated, (3) female, (4) low income, and (5) non-white. The only one of these characteristics where the Republicans have a lead is poorly-educated (51-45 among voters without a batchelor's degree); all the others are majority Democrat. Young voters (the biggest determinant of low voter information) split 66-34; female voters 51-44; low income voters 58-36; non-white voters from 61-35 (Hispanic) to 83-12 (black)
    lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions

    Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws

    Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
  • FossFoss Posts: 991

    EU Yes lead expanding a bit, now up to 9,152 votes (50.30% to 49.70%). 20,000 or so outstanding. I guess we're not going to have to learn the Moldovan for hanging chad after all?
    https://bsky.app/profile/borlingon.bsky.social/post/3l6z52skndu24

    What's the Moldovan for cursed ratio?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    Nigelb said:

    Something to note, now that we've established that the GOP-aligned pollsters are not actually responsible for the tightening poll numbers: a lot of this comes from Trump consolidating his vote, even as Harris' stays steady...

    You can see that when Harris came in the race, she consolidated Democrats and Dem-leaning independents really quickly. Trump managed to pull a few GOP-leaning stragglers to his side as the election nears, and I'd guess that this is a lot of what's driving this.

    https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1848253567934640308

    Without the Musk wall...

    https://nitter.poast.org/lxeagle17/status/1848253567934640308#m
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    His McDonald’s stunt was clever and effective. The Trump campaign has reduced the Dems to spluttering “but but but the McDonalds was actually closed and the security services vetted everyone” - well yeah seeing as he’s a presidential candidate who was nearly killed by two different assassins in the last few weeks
    Yeah. Fair comment. Unfortunately.

    I really have a sense of foreboding. Horrifically Trump may win.

    What is so maddening is that the Dems have, after the experience with Hillary, ended up giving us Kamala. FFS.

    All, the same, fingers crossed. But it really shouldn't be like this.
    Yes, if Trump wins, the ululating from righties blaming libs for a moral defective being elected under the righty banner will be deafening.
    Yes, it's as self-servingly dishonest as everything else recently emanating from that side of US politics.

    I prefer this take.

    I've always disagreed with the "Democrats are fumbling the election" angle. It's not their race to fumble.

    And it's Trump's *third time*. Voters have agency, and it's a conscious choice they're making. They've seen his presidency. If he wins, it would mean they want it back.

    https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1848181289393721465
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    MaxPB said:

    On topic, being young and right wing was never an issue for me wrt dating. Most girls didn't care very much about it and as long as you're not a dickhead on the first date and start espousing the dangers of high tax or quoting Milton Friedman etc... then it doesn't even come into conversation. My wife was an active member of the Swiss leftist party when we met, we're married with two kids now. People who let politics prevent them from forming personal relationships are sad and deserve to be lonely.

    I don't think that party affiliation should be a factor, but there are elements of personal character - generosity, optimism, responsibility, morality, etc - that are to a certain degree correlated with it, which I think would be difficult to get past.

    One of the things that I've appreciated about PB.com over the years is that, even though I disagree with mostly everyone most of the time, when you look a bit closer there's often more agreement there than at first sight.

    But the differences can be quite fundamental.
  • MaxPB said:

    On topic, being young and right wing was never an issue for me wrt dating. Most girls didn't care very much about it and as long as you're not a dickhead on the first date and start espousing the dangers of high tax or quoting Milton Friedman etc... then it doesn't even come into conversation. My wife was an active member of the Swiss leftist party when we met, we're married with two kids now. People who let politics prevent them from forming personal relationships are sad and deserve to be lonely.

    Agreed, within reason - as you say, the exception is if it dominates the early conversation. In general politics is either not that important to people (in which case who cares) or deep and complex (in which case it's something to discuss with interest at a later date). I just shy away from people who have strong but uninformed views which they thrust on you at the first opportunity.
    Those sort of people have lots of unresolved issues in their personality which in many cases they are scared to address or fail to accept the issues exist at all.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 67
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.

    The characteristics that best predict low voter information, all of which have more effect than partisan affiliation, are being (1) young, (2) poorly-educated, (3) female, (4) low income, and (5) non-white. The only one of these characteristics where the Republicans have a lead is poorly-educated (51-45 among voters without a batchelor's degree); all the others are majority Democrat. Young voters (the biggest determinant of low voter information) split 66-34; female voters 51-44; low income voters 58-36; non-white voters from 61-35 (Hispanic) to 83-12 (black)
    lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions

    Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws

    Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
    Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
  • I think the Democrats are better, but they seem worse, because they don't have a compelling single story.

    This is the modern problem of the Left throughout the West.
  • MaxPB said:

    On topic, being young and right wing was never an issue for me wrt dating. Most girls didn't care very much about it and as long as you're not a dickhead on the first date and start espousing the dangers of high tax or quoting Milton Friedman etc... then it doesn't even come into conversation. My wife was an active member of the Swiss leftist party when we met, we're married with two kids now. People who let politics prevent them from forming personal relationships are sad and deserve to be lonely.

    Agreed, within reason - as you say, the exception is if it dominates the early conversation. In general politics is either not that important to people (in which case who cares) or deep and complex (in which case it's something to discuss with interest at a later date). I just shy away from people who have strong but uninformed views which they thrust on you at the first opportunity.
    Those sort of people have lots of unresolved issues in their personality which in many cases they are scared to address or fail to accept the issues exist at all.
    And let's face it they come across as overly intense and boring in some cases.
  • HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    On topic, being young and right wing was never an issue for me wrt dating. Most girls didn't care very much about it and as long as you're not a dickhead on the first date and start espousing the dangers of high tax or quoting Milton Friedman etc... then it doesn't even come into conversation. My wife was an active member of the Swiss leftist party when we met, we're married with two kids now. People who let politics prevent them from forming personal relationships are sad and deserve to be lonely.

    If you are a rich, high earning good looking rightwinger yes I suspect you do rather better with getting a date than a low income, spotty rightwinger living in their mother's basement
    Natural selection!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    AnthonyT said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.

    The characteristics that best predict low voter information, all of which have more effect than partisan affiliation, are being (1) young, (2) poorly-educated, (3) female, (4) low income, and (5) non-white. The only one of these characteristics where the Republicans have a lead is poorly-educated (51-45 among voters without a batchelor's degree); all the others are majority Democrat. Young voters (the biggest determinant of low voter information) split 66-34; female voters 51-44; low income voters 58-36; non-white voters from 61-35 (Hispanic) to 83-12 (black)
    lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions

    Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws

    Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
    Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
    Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    AnthonyT said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.

    The characteristics that best predict low voter information, all of which have more effect than partisan affiliation, are being (1) young, (2) poorly-educated, (3) female, (4) low income, and (5) non-white. The only one of these characteristics where the Republicans have a lead is poorly-educated (51-45 among voters without a batchelor's degree); all the others are majority Democrat. Young voters (the biggest determinant of low voter information) split 66-34; female voters 51-44; low income voters 58-36; non-white voters from 61-35 (Hispanic) to 83-12 (black)
    lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions

    Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws

    Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
    Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
    As an example, didn't you see the Harris Tweet last week?

    https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1845993766441644386

    Incidentally, can someone confirm that 'and others' has been added to the first on the list? Not sure this was on the original.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    I think the Democrats are better, but they seem worse, because they don't have a compelling single story.

    This is the modern problem of the Left throughout the West.

    Much easier to tell a compelling story if you're prepared to make stuff up.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 67
    Leon said:

    AnthonyT said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.

    The characteristics that best predict low voter information, all of which have more effect than partisan affiliation, are being (1) young, (2) poorly-educated, (3) female, (4) low income, and (5) non-white. The only one of these characteristics where the Republicans have a lead is poorly-educated (51-45 among voters without a batchelor's degree); all the others are majority Democrat. Young voters (the biggest determinant of low voter information) split 66-34; female voters 51-44; low income voters 58-36; non-white voters from 61-35 (Hispanic) to 83-12 (black)
    lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions

    Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws

    Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
    Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
    Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
    Thanks.
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