It's interesting looking at the Norwegian government wealth fund page with the latest numbers. It equates to around a quarter of a million pounds for each Norwegian (5.6 million people).
Starmer shows his political tin ear by appointing Gauke rather than any of the hundreds of Labour MPs angling for promotion.
Alternatively, Starmer shows his political acumen by appointing somebody associated with the party of law and order to seek consensus on our currently shambolic and ineffective sentencing policy.
This was more or less a certain outcome to anyone who followed the trial. And the jury took very little time over it.
A significant row is possible over the decision to prosecute in what was, in totality, a weak case once you looked at what both sides had to say.
Don't expect much serious analysis from anyone on Twitter.
For all the total fcukups at the Met over the years, that was very much not one of them having just been ‘treated’ to the video.
Serious questions to ask of the CPS for bringing the charges in the first place.
The car was known to have been involved in two armed incidents, and the armed police made themselves known in the usual manner before the suspect attempts to ram his way out of the roadblock. The policeman who took the shot would have been run over had he not done so.
You forget Chris Kaba was just a humble aspiring architect....I mean it standard for such people to try and ram their way out of a police stop.
I’m pretty sure the UK is the only country where “Armed Police” is a specific phrase.
Certainly it’s one of very few, and something that makes you quite proud to be British.
Britain is the only place with more than 6 million people where the police don't usually carry guns. I think Norway is the next most populous with 5.6 million, followed by New Zealand.
NZ would probably have been my best guess for somewhere with a similar system in place.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
I might come back to this later.
Where's Tice's supporting case for this man being a political prisoner eg the evidence demonstrating that his imprisonment was a political, rather than judicial, process?
Starmer shows his political tin ear by appointing Gauke rather than any of the hundreds of Labour MPs angling for promotion.
Alternatively, Starmer shows his political acumen by appointing somebody associated with the party of law and order to seek consensus on our currently shambolic and ineffective sentencing policy.
Outside of political anoraks, nobody knows who he is or what party he used to belong to and why he left it.
It might be that he thinks Gauke will do a good job, but it is a bit odd you have a big fanfare getting in a bloke who has lived and breathed this for topic years and then 3 months later say well we need to bring in somebody else to do a report on this.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
I might come back to this later.
Where's Tice's supporting case for this man being a political prisoner eg the evidence demonstrating that his imprisonment was a political, rather than judicial, process?
Starmer shows his political tin ear by appointing Gauke rather than any of the hundreds of Labour MPs angling for promotion.
It's odd that it seems that if you have a good education you're more likely to vote leftishly, and yet so few of Labour MPs seems to have actually got any educational achievements whatsoever.
If Gauke is available and cheap then he's likely Starmer's best option.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
I might come back to this later.
Where's Tice's supporting case for this man being a political prisoner eg the evidence demonstrating that his imprisonment was a political, rather than judicial, process?
The people involved in setting fire to things, and carrying out acts of violence should have gone to jail no doubt. But there were some very serious situations in which people went down for two years or more for being in the wrong place in the wrong time, which the same exact actions would have resulted in a "behave yourself and go home". Even idiots on facebook, short of the ones telling people to go and set things alight, a massive over reaction.
SSI - Appears that what's putting the Yes side in the lead, is strong support from voters in Chișinău, the capital (23.4% of national vote) and where Da = 56.0%
Small rudders turn large ships.
That's, so far, a higher margin on a higher turnout than the Referendum that created Welsh devolution and the Senedd .
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
I might come back to this later.
Where's Tice's supporting case for this man being a political prisoner eg the evidence demonstrating that his imprisonment was a political, rather than judicial, process?
I suppose in Tice's mind the man took part in an insurrection, and Starmer had him jailed to prevent his government being overthrown in the ensuing civil war. No other explanation for such language makes much sense.
SSI - Appears that what's putting the Yes side in the lead, is strong support from voters in Chișinău, the capital (23.4% of national vote) and where Da = 56.0%
Small rudders turn large ships.
That's, so far, a higher margin on a higher turnout than the Referendum that created Welsh devolution and the Senedd .
Just had lunch with a former colleague of mine who works at the Treasury. He was very glad when Labour took over as the last government hadn't gone anywhere for years but is now pretty horrified in an understated, civil servant kind of way about the Autumn Statement and the mess it is in. He says they're running round like headless chickens desperately trying to make the numbers add up, but the previous government used all the politically painless revenue raisers, so they're left choosing between the bad and the worse, especially given the extra spending commitments the government has made.
I'm sure we all guessed something like that was going on, but it's interesting to hear it confirmed by an inside source. Of course much of it may be last minute nerves. Still, too bad there aren't odds on how long it'll take before the Autumn Statement falls apart.
She would be well advised to delay until next year IMO.
I don't think she knows what she is doing.
I was speaking to a fellow financial professional yesterday and we were trying to figure out how limiting tax free cash from a pension raises tax revenue. As far as I can see it will reduce revenue because less taken out would equate to lower VAT on things purchased with the cash. My colleague seriously believes that they are working on the absurd assumption that tax will be raised from the sum withdrawn.
To be clear, if someone has a £1m pension fund (very rare outside of the public sector) and planned to draw £250,000 tax free cash and Reeves capped it at £100,000, he/she will draw £100,000 instead. He/she will NOT continue to draw £250,000 of which £100,000 will be tax-free and pay tax on £150,000.
“very rare outside of the public sector”: citation needed.
seemingly 1.1M people have £1m or more pension pot
Thanks. Do you have a split by private vs public sector?
I did not find definitive split , only this The NHS has Britain's top pension with every £1 saved worth more than £10 Private sector workers could receive as little as £3 for every £1 they pay in Traditionally, public sector wages were generally lower than in the private sector But public sector workers now earn more on average than those in private sector
Just had lunch with a former colleague of mine who works at the Treasury. He was very glad when Labour took over as the last government hadn't gone anywhere for years but is now pretty horrified in an understated, civil servant kind of way about the Autumn Statement and the mess it is in. He says they're running round like headless chickens desperately trying to make the numbers add up, but the previous government used all the politically painless revenue raisers, so they're left choosing between the bad and the worse, especially given the extra spending commitments the government has made.
I'm sure we all guessed something like that was going on, but it's interesting to hear it confirmed by an inside source. Of course much of it may be last minute nerves. Still, too bad there aren't odds on how long it'll take before the Autumn Statement falls apart.
She would be well advised to delay until next year IMO.
I don't think she knows what she is doing.
I was speaking to a fellow financial professional yesterday and we were trying to figure out how limiting tax free cash from a pension raises tax revenue. As far as I can see it will reduce revenue because less taken out would equate to lower VAT on things purchased with the cash. My colleague seriously believes that they are working on the absurd assumption that tax will be raised from the sum withdrawn.
To be clear, if someone has a £1m pension fund (very rare outside of the public sector) and planned to draw £250,000 tax free cash and Reeves capped it at £100,000, he/she will draw £100,000 instead. He/she will NOT continue to draw £250,000 of which £100,000 will be tax-free and pay tax on £150,000.
“very rare outside of the public sector”: citation needed.
seemingly 1.1M people have £1m or more pension pot
What's that, 1 in 50 of the adult non-retired population? No way is it as high as that.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
I might come back to this later.
Where's Tice's supporting case for this man being a political prisoner eg the evidence demonstrating that his imprisonment was a political, rather than judicial, process?
The people involved in setting fire to things, and carrying out acts of violence should have gone to jail no doubt. But there were some very serious situations in which people went down for two years or more for being in the wrong place in the wrong time, which the same exact actions would have resulted in a "behave yourself and go home". Even idiots on facebook, short of the ones telling people to go and set things alight, a massive over reaction.
This is what happens during riots though, as in 2011. You get a very tough sentence for criminal behaviour that ordinarily might be dealt with more leniently precisely because 'behave yourself and go home' has been ignored.
And with good reason, because even if you're not personally doing the worst things you're taking part in making the conditions that enable them to happen.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
I might come back to this later.
Where's Tice's supporting case for this man being a political prisoner eg the evidence demonstrating that his imprisonment was a political, rather than judicial, process?
I suppose in Tice's mind the man took part in an insurrection, and Starmer had him jailed to prevent his government being overthrown in the ensuing civil war. No other explanation for such language makes much sense.
Trump winning would turbo charge this sort of shit over here.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
I might come back to this later.
Where's Tice's supporting case for this man being a political prisoner eg the evidence demonstrating that his imprisonment was a political, rather than judicial, process?
I suppose in Tice's mind the man took part in an insurrection, and Starmer had him jailed to prevent his government being overthrown in the ensuing civil war. No other explanation for such language makes much sense.
Do political prisoners usually get banged up by non-judges loudly declaring that they're being banging them up for opposing the regime? Or do they usually get sentenced by judges in courts?
Starmer shows his political tin ear by appointing Gauke rather than any of the hundreds of Labour MPs angling for promotion.
It's odd that it seems that if you have a good education you're more likely to vote leftishly, and yet so few of Labour MPs seems to have actually got any educational achievements whatsoever.
If Gauke is available and cheap then he's likely Starmer's best option.
We'll have Thornberry back next.
A good education is enough to make it obvious that being a politician is a thankless, depressing and stressful career for the vast majority who attempt it.
Starmer shows his political tin ear by appointing Gauke rather than any of the hundreds of Labour MPs angling for promotion.
It's odd that it seems that if you have a good education you're more likely to vote leftishly, and yet so few of Labour MPs seems to have actually got any educational achievements whatsoever.
If Gauke is available and cheap then he's likely Starmer's best option.
“Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52% to 48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60% to 36%,”
Some rather interesting notes on productivity, that great British economic issue of the day, buried right at the bottom of that amusingly gloomy Tejegraph article on the Government's workers' rights policies.
"Officials found.. that there would be a small positive economic effect. Part of the costs would be offset by the beneficial effect of having more productive workers."
This was more or less a certain outcome to anyone who followed the trial. And the jury took very little time over it.
A significant row is possible over the decision to prosecute in what was, in totality, a weak case once you looked at what both sides had to say.
Don't expect much serious analysis from anyone on Twitter.
For all the total fcukups at the Met over the years, that was very much not one of them having just been ‘treated’ to the video.
Serious questions to ask of the CPS for bringing the charges in the first place.
The car was known to have been involved in two armed incidents, and the armed police made themselves known in the usual manner before the suspect attempts to ram his way out of the roadblock. The policeman who took the shot would have been run over had he not done so.
You forget Chris Kaba was just a humble aspiring architect....I mean it standard for such people to try and ram their way out of a police stop.
I’m pretty sure the UK is the only country where “Armed Police” is a specific phrase.
Certainly it’s one of very few, and something that makes you quite proud to be British.
Britain is the only place with more than 6 million people where the police don't usually carry guns. I think Norway is the next most populous with 5.6 million, followed by New Zealand.
NZ would probably have been my best guess for somewhere with a similar system in place.
Starmer shows his political tin ear by appointing Gauke rather than any of the hundreds of Labour MPs angling for promotion.
It's odd that it seems that if you have a good education you're more likely to vote leftishly, and yet so few of Labour MPs seems to have actually got any educational achievements whatsoever.
If Gauke is available and cheap then he's likely Starmer's best option.
We'll have Thornberry back next.
A good education is enough to make it obvious that being a politician is a thankless, depressing and stressful career for the vast majority who attempt it.
Goes without saying if you choose to run under Labour colours.
Joke aside though - it is a bit odd that the wise vote for the stupid, and the stupid for the wise. (Just to be clear I'm not suggesting anyone much is stupid, and I'm certainly not suggesting anyone-much is wise)
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
Do you blame Biden/Harris, too ?
Yes, they are totally responsible for delinquent youths in North East England
But Leon's point is perfectly reasonable, wherever it is happening.
People's lived experience and perception of crime is an issue and certainly some parts of the USA have seen stores closing due to crime.
Again with the "lived experience". Perhaps it is a useful term, after all.
Anyway, reposting this, which no one seems to have read. It's a more sensible analysis of the urban problem in the US, and gives a better idea of how solutions might be thought about.
It's funny how "lived experience" is totally legitimate when it's people complaining about Haitians eating swans or something, but woke lefty nonsense when it's someone who has experienced discrimination or similar.
I actually think it's a useful phrase, particularly when trying to understand why people vote for Trump or Corbyn etc. For me, it's how irritated people are by cyclists going through red lights when the data is clear about how few do it, and how little danger they pose. You can point at spreadsheets or video analysis as much as you want but people are deeply influenced by their inherent biases and what they can see and hear in person.
A key element or a "lived experience" is not how it was at the time, but how you look back on it. I've had breakups where I was reasonably calm and resigned at the time, but weeks or even months later it starts to have a dreadful effect on me.
I agree with this.
There is also an element of anecdata... famously the David Herdson post on here predicting Corbyn was way closer in 2017 than the polls suggested, just by being out on the streets canvassing in the days before.
Often with statistics and large datasets, we're either collecting the wrong data (e.g. crime has fallen, but also more minor crimes are going unreported, thus creating the disconnect between experience and the stats). Or the data itself is being cherry picked to paint a narrative, e.g. being told inflation was super low for the last decade (but everyone feels poorer because of skyrocketing housing costs) or the economy is healthy because there's low unemployment (despite the fact that many of the jobs are zero hours or formerly well paid white collar professionals taking jobs far lower than their skill level to make ends meet).
Intuition matters. A lot.
As someone who has done a lot of market research, I tend to listen to the qual first and only then see what the data says. And if the two don't match, I don't just blindly accept the data over the 'lived experience'. I question the data.
I suppose my conclusion is the opposite - the data is often "right" but people's interpretation of it is different to what you'd expect.
So, there is pervasive sense of unlawfulness in Edinburgh despite all the stats showing the city is light years ahead of where it was in the 90s. That's down to how much more obvious the crime is - kids on e-bikes wearing balaclavas or causing havoc on the buses. Relatively harmless, yet people feel "under siege".
They assume their "lived" experience reflects society as a whole, even though broadly speaking things are significantly better for most.
Oh, I was agreeing with you - that the data is often right, especially when you're dealing with one or two people. "I've seen lots of crime this year, therefore crime must be up". Cognitive bias is the likely culprit.
Where it gets interesting is when you do a lot of qual with numerous people in different places and different walks of life. And they're all saying the same thing but the data doesn't support it.
That's when I start questioning the data. Often you find that either the data is either too narrow in what it's collecting, or it's not focused on the right thing. E.g. GDP is up massively in the last few years! Everyone must be richer. OK, but check how much people are spending as a portion of their income on housing over the same timeframe. Actually, people are poorer.
When people's "lived" experience is telling you one thing but the data is saying something else, it's a danger to just write off the qual as anecdata. Numbers don't always lie, but they don't always tell the full picture. Yet we have a bias towards trusting the data rather than the experiences.
Starmer shows his political tin ear by appointing Gauke rather than any of the hundreds of Labour MPs angling for promotion.
It's odd that it seems that if you have a good education you're more likely to vote leftishly, and yet so few of Labour MPs seems to have actually got any educational achievements whatsoever.
If Gauke is available and cheap then he's likely Starmer's best option.
Starmer shows his political tin ear by appointing Gauke rather than any of the hundreds of Labour MPs angling for promotion.
It's odd that it seems that if you have a good education you're more likely to vote leftishly, and yet so few of Labour MPs seems to have actually got any educational achievements whatsoever.
If Gauke is available and cheap then he's likely Starmer's best option.
We'll have Thornberry back next.
A good education is enough to make it obvious that being a politician is a thankless, depressing and stressful career for the vast majority who attempt it.
Goes without saying if you choose to run under Labour colours.
Joke aside though - it is a bit odd that the wise vote for the stupid, and the stupid for the wise. (Just to be clear I'm not suggesting anyone much is stupid, and I'm certainly not suggesting anyone-much is wise)
What about Morcombe? Where does he stand in all this?
Starmer shows his political tin ear by appointing Gauke rather than any of the hundreds of Labour MPs angling for promotion.
It's odd that it seems that if you have a good education you're more likely to vote leftishly, and yet so few of Labour MPs seems to have actually got any educational achievements whatsoever.
If Gauke is available and cheap then he's likely Starmer's best option.
We'll have Thornberry back next.
A good education is enough to make it obvious that being a politician is a thankless, depressing and stressful career for the vast majority who attempt it.
Goes without saying if you choose to run under Labour colours.
Joke aside though - it is a bit odd that the wise vote for the stupid, and the stupid for the wise. (Just to be clear I'm not suggesting anyone much is stupid, and I'm certainly not suggesting anyone-much is wise)
What about Morcombe? Where does he stand in all this?
He drives slowly as he likes to sell his ice-creams.
Starmer shows his political tin ear by appointing Gauke rather than any of the hundreds of Labour MPs angling for promotion.
It's odd that it seems that if you have a good education you're more likely to vote leftishly, and yet so few of Labour MPs seems to have actually got any educational achievements whatsoever.
If Gauke is available and cheap then he's likely Starmer's best option.
Some rather interesting notes on productivity, that great British economic issue of the day, buried right at the bottom of that amusingly gloomy Tejegraph article on the Government's workers' rights policies.
"Officials found.. that there would be a small positive economic effect. Part of the costs would be offset by the beneficial effect of having more productive workers."
It's the French experience. Regulations kills jobs disproportionately at the bottom end. So average productivity goes up, but more unemployment.
On the Kaba case - I remember being somewhat surprised at the time that there was a murder charge based on media reports. Doesn't murder require pre-meditation? Wouldn't manslaughter have been a more obvious charge in this case?
Murder does not require premeditation in the sense of planning. It requires an intent to kill or cause GBH. The officer in this case would have had such an intent; his defence to murder (justified killing) would also have been a defence to manslaughter.
Some rather interesting notes on productivity, that great British economic issue of the day, buried right at the bottom of that amusingly gloomy Tejegraph article on the Government's workers' rights policies.
"Officials found.. that there would be a small positive economic effect. Part of the costs would be offset by the beneficial effect of having more productive workers."
It's the French experience. Regulations kills jobs disproportionately at the bottom end. So average productivity goes up, but more unemployment.
French employment law is way worse for employers than Labour proposals...
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
You can see the next problem coming along.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
You can see the next problem coming along.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
What about the Lab councillor who called for throat-slitting?
Starmer shows his political tin ear by appointing Gauke rather than any of the hundreds of Labour MPs angling for promotion.
What happened to Timpson?
He is the proper invisible man.
I wonder if Timpson, when approached, accepted the position as an honour, or perhaps as a duty. Maybe in depth reviews are really not his bag. I see that, following this appointment, he stepped down as chief executive officer of Timpson and chair of the Prison Reform Trust. Maybe there is a conflict of interest given his strong views on the subject? It is strange.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
BTW, WRT the rentacrowd reaction, lots of stuff about no justice and all that, but in what I have seen (I give up the will to live after a bit) they are very reluctant to state what they must actually mean, which is that the jury got it wrong because they are biased. In fact the word 'jury' rarely if ever pops up.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
You can see the next problem coming along.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
How quickly people forget. Even the owners of this very site were briefly scared by the long arm of the law into threatening expulsion of members. Not for inciting violence or racial hatred, but for what would otherwise count as normal civic discussion in a free society.
But then again our new prime minister thought it was dangerous and reckless to allow citizens to show their faces uncovered even after the vaccine programme. And half the people here fully agreed.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
You can see the next problem coming along.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
What about the Lab councillor who called for throat-slitting?
That's a poor argument because he's been remanded for trial.
I would expect he will get a very stiff sentence. Indeed, his arrest was one of the funnier moments during the riots as the two-tier meme was shown to be completely false, much to the chagrin of some PBers.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. The most amusing outcome but highly unlikely. About a 5% chance.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
I'm sure I saw figures earlier today that showed pollsters are discounting recently arrived voters as their lack of previous voting in that State pushed them into the unlikely to vote category. Given that recent arrivals are likely to be coming from Democrat leaning states that may means the polling is underestimating Democrat votes.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
On my rolling averages, Trump is 2% ahead in Arizona and North Carolina. For all the others (except Florida) there isn't even a half percent between them. Knife edge, excluding differential turnout.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
You can see the next problem coming along.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
What about the Lab councillor who called for throat-slitting?
My point exactly. That isn't shouty trolling. I don't know that case or the context or the outcome, but calling for throat slitting and inciting an enraged crowd bent on such things is a mega serious offence.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
You can see the next problem coming along.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
How quickly people forget. Even the owners of this very site were briefly scared by the long arm of the law into threatening expulsion of members. Not for inciting violence or racial hatred, but for what would otherwise count as normal civic discussion in a free society.
But then again our new prime minister thought it was dangerous and reckless to allow citizens to show their faces uncovered even after the vaccine programme. And half the people here fully agreed.
That entirely misrepresents what OGH's acolyte warned us about.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
You can see the next problem coming along.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
How quickly people forget. Even the owners of this very site were briefly scared by the long arm of the law into threatening expulsion of members. Not for inciting violence or racial hatred, but for what would otherwise count as normal civic discussion in a free society.
But then again our new prime minister thought it was dangerous and reckless to allow citizens to show their faces uncovered even after the vaccine programme. And half the people here fully agreed.
That entirely misrepresents what OGH's acolyte warned us about.
I think it was more a Harbinger of Noom. Little did we listen.
There’s a toddler babbling away on the Eurostar and its parents keep shushing it, presumably out of fear of it irritating fellow passengers. The parental shushing is 100x more annoying than the rather cute babbling, which included a rendition of let it go.
Some rather interesting notes on productivity, that great British economic issue of the day, buried right at the bottom of that amusingly gloomy Tejegraph article on the Government's workers' rights policies.
"Officials found.. that there would be a small positive economic effect. Part of the costs would be offset by the beneficial effect of having more productive workers."
It's the French experience. Regulations kills jobs disproportionately at the bottom end. So average productivity goes up, but more unemployment.
French employment law is way worse for employers than Labour proposals...
The same thing happens in a number of European countries - job protection is great for existing workers at large companies. But you end up with 2 tier employment - I know/work with people who come here, despite Brexit, because of lack of prospects at home.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
Did he eat a Big Mac or a Quarter pounder?
Kamala needs to hit back hard with a visit to cheesecake factory.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
Did he eat a Big Mac or a Quarter pounder?
Kamala needs to hit back hard with a visit to cheesecake factory.
There’s a toddler babbling away on the Eurostar and its parents keep shushing it, presumably out of fear of it irritating fellow passengers. The parental shushing is 100x more annoying than the rather cute babbling, which included a rendition of let it go.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
Did he eat a Big Mac or a Quarter pounder?
Kamala needs to hit back hard with a visit to cheesecake factory.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
If that does happen then it will be one of the biggest misses by the intelligentsia in history.
And lots of posters on here will have egg on their faces.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
You can see the next problem coming along.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
How quickly people forget. Even the owners of this very site were briefly scared by the long arm of the law into threatening expulsion of members. Not for inciting violence or racial hatred, but for what would otherwise count as normal civic discussion in a free society.
But then again our new prime minister thought it was dangerous and reckless to allow citizens to show their faces uncovered even after the vaccine programme. And half the people here fully agreed.
That entirely misrepresents what OGH's acolyte warned us about.
On those numbers, Trump gets a minimum of 280, even assuming no Michigan and Pennsylvania
With that said, it shows the exact opposite of the numbers posted a day or two ago, which had Harris outperforming in the sunbelt, and Trump in the rust belt. And it also shows Florida as dramatically closer than the NYTimes Siena poll that came out last week
And, of course, if you tip all of the elections just one point to the - errr - left, then the election pivots to the Dems.
I hold by my previous assertion that the Dems will do better in the sun belt than the rust belt. I think the Democrats will manage to squeeze out victories in Arizona and Nevada (where demographic shifts have been in their favour). Conversely, I think they are likely to underperform in Pennsylvania and Michigan, although they may well hang on in Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, Georgia and North Carolina are becoming bluer by the day... probably not enough for Harris this time around, but it's entirely possible that she wins them.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
You can see the next problem coming along.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
What about the Lab councillor who called for throat-slitting?
My point exactly. That isn't shouty trolling. I don't know that case or the context or the outcome, but calling for throat slitting and inciting an enraged crowd bent on such things is a mega serious offence.
I don’t personally think that “calling for” anything should be a police matter. But then I’m an extreme liberal on this and don’t think we should have any “conspiracy to commit” offences since they mean you haven’t actually done anything.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
Ronald Reagan won 49 out of 50 states.
I'm happy to offer you good odds on such an outcome if you'd like.
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
You can see the next problem coming along.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
How quickly people forget. Even the owners of this very site were briefly scared by the long arm of the law into threatening expulsion of members. Not for inciting violence or racial hatred, but for what would otherwise count as normal civic discussion in a free society.
But then again our new prime minister thought it was dangerous and reckless to allow citizens to show their faces uncovered even after the vaccine programme. And half the people here fully agreed.
That entirely misrepresents what OGH's acolyte warned us about.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
If that does happen then it will be one of the biggest misses by the intelligentsia in history.
And lots of posters on here will have egg on their faces.
On those numbers, Trump gets a minimum of 280, even assuming no Michigan and Pennsylvania
With that said, it shows the exact opposite of the numbers posted a day or two ago, which had Harris outperforming in the sunbelt, and Trump in the rust belt. And it also shows Florida as dramatically closer than the NYTimes Siena poll that came out last week
And, of course, if you tip all of the elections just one point to the - errr - left, then the election pivots to the Dems.
I hold by my previous assertion that the Dems will do better in the sun belt than the rust belt. I think the Democrats will manage to squeeze out victories in Arizona and Nevada (where demographic shifts have been in their favour). Conversely, I think they are likely to underperform in Pennsylvania and Michigan, although they may well hang on in Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, Georgia and North Carolina are becoming bluer by the day... probably not enough for Harris this time around, but it's entirely possible that she wins them.
I am with you on most of this. Trump may well get Florida though. Arizona. You believe Harris will win there?
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
Did he eat a Big Mac or a Quarter pounder?
Kamala needs to hit back hard with a visit to cheesecake factory.
Or Kentucky Fried Chicken.
Taco Bell - the winners of the Resteraunt Wars.
What is your boggle, citizen? How may we ProtectServe you?
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
Ronald Reagan won 49 out of 50 states.
I'm happy to offer you good odds on such an outcome if you'd like.
A very close election this one! No Landslide bets!
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
You can see the next problem coming along.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
What about the Lab councillor who called for throat-slitting?
My point exactly. That isn't shouty trolling. I don't know that case or the context or the outcome, but calling for throat slitting and inciting an enraged crowd bent on such things is a mega serious offence.
I don’t personally think that “calling for” anything should be a police matter. But then I’m an extreme liberal on this and don’t think we should have any “conspiracy to commit” offences since they mean you haven’t actually done anything.
Incitement to criminal activity has been a crime since law and order moved beyond mob violence.
Interesting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.
Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.
It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.
After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.
Comments
Where's Tice's supporting case for this man being a political prisoner eg the evidence demonstrating that his imprisonment was a political, rather than judicial, process?
It might be that he thinks Gauke will do a good job, but it is a bit odd you have a big fanfare getting in a bloke who has lived and breathed this for topic years and then 3 months later say well we need to bring in somebody else to do a report on this.
If Gauke is available and cheap then he's likely Starmer's best option.
We'll have Thornberry back next.
That's, so far, a higher margin on a higher turnout than the Referendum that created Welsh devolution and the Senedd
That was 50.3% over 49.7% on a turnout of 50.22%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Welsh_devolution_referendum
The NHS has Britain's top pension with every £1 saved worth more than £10
Private sector workers could receive as little as £3 for every £1 they pay in
Traditionally, public sector wages were generally lower than in the private sector
But public sector workers now earn more on average than those in private sector
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/topdecilepensionwealthingreatbritainover1million
And with good reason, because even if you're not personally doing the worst things you're taking part in making the conditions that enable them to happen.
Reason #272 for why it would be mortifying.
https://x.com/campbellclaret/status/1848391075162927157
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/c99v9vd7r53o
The new stupid party
“Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52% to 48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60% to 36%,”
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-tracking-national-poll-harris-49-trump-48/
"Officials found.. that there would be a small positive economic effect. Part of the costs would be offset by the beneficial effect of having more productive workers."
Joke aside though - it is a bit odd that the wise vote for the stupid, and the stupid for the wise. (Just to be clear I'm not suggesting anyone much is stupid, and I'm certainly not suggesting anyone-much is wise)
Where it gets interesting is when you do a lot of qual with numerous people in different places and different walks of life. And they're all saying the same thing but the data doesn't support it.
That's when I start questioning the data. Often you find that either the data is either too narrow in what it's collecting, or it's not focused on the right thing. E.g. GDP is up massively in the last few years! Everyone must be richer. OK, but check how much people are spending as a portion of their income on housing over the same timeframe. Actually, people are poorer.
When people's "lived" experience is telling you one thing but the data is saying something else, it's a danger to just write off the qual as anecdata. Numbers don't always lie, but they don't always tell the full picture. Yet we have a bias towards trusting the data rather than the experiences.
It’s an interesting take
https://x.com/mayoroflondon/status/1848406535564623958?s=61
With Cook as captain obvs
Lamb, Mustard, Onions, Salt and Pepper are the ones I can think of off the top of my head..
But Labours approach in the UK is all about bossing the citizen about.
@Politics_Polls
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1h
#NEW
@RedfieldWilton
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@Telegraph
Poll:
Arizona: Trump +3
North Carolina: Trump +3
Nevada: Trump +1
Georgia: Trump +1
Florida: Trump +4
Michigan: Tied
Pennsylvania: Tied
Wisconsin: Harris +1
When you add in differential turnout, still a knife edge for the whole election.
To help prepare - Alastair Cook and Mark Butcher.
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
BTW, WRT the rentacrowd reaction, lots of stuff about no justice and all that, but in what I have seen (I give up the will to live after a bit) they are very reluctant to state what they must actually mean, which is that the jury got it wrong because they are biased. In fact the word 'jury' rarely if ever pops up.
But then again our new prime minister thought it was dangerous and reckless to allow citizens to show their faces uncovered even after the vaccine programme. And half the people here fully agreed.
I would expect he will get a very stiff sentence. Indeed, his arrest was one of the funnier moments during the riots as the two-tier meme was shown to be completely false, much to the chagrin of some PBers.
For all the others (except Florida) there isn't even a half percent between them. Knife edge, excluding differential turnout.
As for starting business…..
And lots of posters on here will have egg on their faces.
Question - Mamesbury, I keep getting mistaken for a racist? How can I fix this?
Don’t set immigrants on fire. Don’t advocate setting immigrants on fire.
What, not even a little one?
Especially not small immigrants, no
But….
No buts. You have to go cold turkey on the whole thing.
With that said, it shows the exact opposite of the numbers posted a day or two ago, which had Harris outperforming in the sunbelt, and Trump in the rust belt. And it also shows Florida as dramatically closer than the NYTimes Siena poll that came out last week
And, of course, if you tip all of the elections just one point to the - errr - left, then the election pivots to the Dems.
I hold by my previous assertion that the Dems will do better in the sun belt than the rust belt. I think the Democrats will manage to squeeze out victories in Arizona and Nevada (where demographic shifts have been in their favour). Conversely, I think they are likely to underperform in Pennsylvania and Michigan, although they may well hang on in Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, Georgia and North Carolina are becoming bluer by the day... probably not enough for Harris this time around, but it's entirely possible that she wins them.
I'm happy to offer you good odds on such an outcome if you'd like.
What is your boggle, citizen? How may we ProtectServe you?