Look luv, you can come up with these old school phrases as much as you like, it might be mental but it will just fall on deaf ears. It will be raining cats and dogs before they fix this, it works much better in third world countries.
Brain storming being offensive to people with epilepsy is another...
The thing is when you actually talk to people who are supposed offended by this, 99% aren't, never even entered their head it might be.
We’re only a few weeks away from the annual stories about “Muslims find ‘Christmas’ offensive”.
No they don’t, it’s the educated white liberal wokesters in HR at the council who find ‘Christmas’ offensive, and think you should too.
We'll get the debate over GMT v. BST and poppy fascism before that.
I think the Democrats are better, but they seem worse, because they don't have a compelling single story.
This is the modern problem of the Left throughout the West.
Reality - Whoever is in charge things are not going to be as good as it was for previous generations Fantasy - Things will be great if only we get rid of those boring realists
Reality would be a tough sell on its own, but when the billionaire class back the fantasists as an easy way to avoid any scrutiny the fantasists are going to win, not every time, but in general. Each time they do trust and faith in the system declines further once they inevitably fail.
I agree to a large extent, but, however. this manipulative plutocrat class, who generally are not interested in people's living conditions, and might back issues like Brexit, or Trump, for their own reasons, also seem to understand the importance of emotionally in politics much better.
If you're going to counter an extremely powerful group of emotional appeals offered by the right - security, identity, continuity, punishment, vengeance, local belonging, and much else - you're going to have to much better than the modern left is doing. You need to make *everyone*, across all social, cultural and ethnic barriers, *feel better* on themselves for adopting a more leftwing agenda. Material promises and hope are obviously am important part of that, but not all, I would say.
I'm not particularly left or right and see it more as a battle between realists and fantasists. Corbyn sold a nice fantasy too.
I think there is a lot that governments can do to make us happier and healthier and little they can do to make us richer (although they can make us poorer with bad choices). Not sure how to sell it as so much of politics is focused on finances and it is the easiest to measure.
I pretty much agree with this. Except (since I am on the left) I'd add "more equal" to your "happier and healthier" (indeed I think it's a prerequisite of those).
Personally I think life is a lot better for most people in the West than it used to be, but we have a tendency to look on the dark side. I don't understand why the elderly tend to be more right-wing - I don't feel the slightest urge to vote Tory or further right at age 74, and would cheerfully vote for higher taxes to finance more foreign aid. I do feel a sneaking sense of indifference - I'd be sorry to think that the human race died out in 100 years, but to some extent feel that younger generations can choose how they want to live. The exception is that the dice are clearly still very much loaded to people in countries that are relatively wealthy and at peace.
Have you ever considered that you're a bit weird?
I presume you're highly educated yet still voted Conservative, which makes you "weirder" than Nick based on voting patterns from GE 24.
"Young men should know that if you vote for Trump you’re basically never going to get laid."
A good reason to keep your vote secret.
There’s definitely plenty of young lady Trump fans on Twitter, even if they’re perhaps outnumbered irl by young lady Harris fans.
Do all the young lady Trump fans have account numbers with a lot of numbers at the end?
My favourite ever lady Trump was a peroxide blonde called Lindy something-or-other, on Twitter.
Her profile photo was of a young blonde in a Baywatch-styie, but holding a very large semi-automatic rifle. She did seem to be a real person, though, judging from the exchanges with Marjorie Taylor Greene that were on her page.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
I've seen more low level crime in the last year in London (presumably all unreported, certainly all unsolved) than I have in the last decade put together.
I've personally come close to being mowed down by people on ebikes twice this year, have had friends had their phones snatched out of their hands, know people who've been pickpocketed, had mates with girlfriends who've been followed home from the tube. Either my friends have had a particularly unlucky year or something is up. As a result I'm always on my guard now in a way I never used to be. A sense of low level menace I haven't felt on the streets in years, since before CCTV was widespread. And I don't think it's just London. See Taz the other day making a similar point about youths intimidating a village near him up north.
So even though stats for big ticket items like stabbing and shooting and breaking and entering might be down, no amount of being battered over the head with statistics is going to convince me that things are getting better. It's the low level stuff that changes your experience, your perception, and hence, how you vote.
Look luv, you can come up with these old school phrases as much as you like, it might be mental but it will just fall on deaf ears. It will be raining cats and dogs before they fix this, it works much better in third world countries.
Brain storming being offensive to people with epilepsy is another...
The thing is when you actually talk to people who are supposed offended by this, 99% aren't, never even entered their head it might be.
We’re only a few weeks away from the annual stories about “Muslims find ‘Christmas’ offensive”.
No they don’t, it’s the educated white liberal wokesters in HR at the council who find ‘Christmas’ offensive, and think you should too.
We'll get the debate over GMT v. BST and poppy fascism before that.
Only a week until the annual clocks debate. So looking forward to it all over again.
USA Today has Harris down to a 1% lead, I think that's a proper pollster in case anyone has been suspecting the right have been flooding the zone with dodgy polling that flatters Trump.
Seems like the polymarket whale dumping money on Trump was ahead of the game?
Rayner is expected to reduce right-to-buy discounts that offer council tenants up to 70 per cent off purchase prices, capped at £102,400, or £136,400 in London. Discounts are expected to be set closer to about 25 per cent. Rayner is likely to restrict the right to buy to people who have lived in their home for ten years, up from three, and she is considering scrapping it for newly-built homes.
I think the Democrats are better, but they seem worse, because they don't have a compelling single story.
This is the modern problem of the Left throughout the West.
Reality - Whoever is in charge things are not going to be as good as it was for previous generations Fantasy - Things will be great if only we get rid of those boring realists
Reality would be a tough sell on its own, but when the billionaire class back the fantasists as an easy way to avoid any scrutiny the fantasists are going to win, not every time, but in general. Each time they do trust and faith in the system declines further once they inevitably fail.
I agree to a large extent, but, however. this manipulative plutocrat class, who generally are not interested in people's living conditions, and might back issues like Brexit, or Trump, for their own reasons, also seem to understand the importance of emotionally in politics much better.
If you're going to counter an extremely powerful group of emotional appeals offered by the right - security, identity, continuity, punishment, vengeance, local belonging, and much else - you're going to have to much better than the modern left is doing. You need to make *everyone*, across all social, cultural and ethnic barriers, *feel better* on themselves for adopting a more leftwing agenda. Material promises and hope are obviously am important part of that, but not all, I would say.
I'm not particularly left or right and see it more as a battle between realists and fantasists. Corbyn sold a nice fantasy too.
I think there is a lot that governments can do to make us happier and healthier and little they can do to make us richer (although they can make us poorer with bad choices). Not sure how to sell it as so much of politics is focused on finances and it is the easiest to measure.
I pretty much agree with this. Except (since I am on the left) I'd add "more equal" to your "happier and healthier" (indeed I think it's a prerequisite of those).
Personally I think life is a lot better for most people in the West than it used to be, but we have a tendency to look on the dark side. I don't understand why the elderly tend to be more right-wing - I don't feel the slightest urge to vote Tory or further right at age 74, and would cheerfully vote for higher taxes to finance more foreign aid. I do feel a sneaking sense of indifference - I'd be sorry to think that the human race died out in 100 years, but to some extent feel that younger generations can choose how they want to live. The exception is that the dice are clearly still very much loaded to people in countries that are relatively wealthy and at peace.
Have you ever considered that you're a bit weird?
I presume you're highly educated yet still voted Conservative, which makes you "weirder" than Nick based on voting patterns from GE 24.
Not really. Lots of highly educated people vote Conservative.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
I've seen more low level crime in the last year in London (presumably all unreported, certainly all unsolved) than I have in the last decade put together.
I've personally come close to being mowed down by people on ebikes twice this year, have had friends had their phones snatched out of their hands, know people who've been pickpocketed, had mates with girlfriends who've been followed home from the tube. Either my friends have had a particularly unlucky year or something is up. As a result I'm always on my guard now in a way I never used to be. A sense of low level menace I haven't felt on the streets in years, since before CCTV was widespread. And I don't think it's just London. See Taz the other day making a similar point about youths intimidating a village near him up north.
So even though stats for big ticket items like stabbing and shooting and breaking and entering might be down, no amount of being battered over the head with statistics is going to convince me that things are getting better. It's the low level stuff that changes your experience, your perception, and hence, how you vote.
I was quite shocked to see that the Tesco Express in the town nearest to me has recently installed the full works of wrap around glass for the check out staff, barriers going in and out, and a permanent security guard...this is in an affluent areas in the country with historically very low levels of any crime.
The only time you used to see that sort of setup 15 years ago was really rough part of the country in a off licence.
That Australian Senator who shouted in the Parliament reminded me of one of those Karen's. Her retweeted picture of the King beheaded was quite offensive I thought.
Disgusting, Farage should do better and spend more money on bodyguards who dress better.
A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.
Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.
Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.
That Australian Senator who shouted in the Parliament reminded me of one of those Karen's. Her retweeted picture of the King beheaded was quite offensive I thought.
Disgusting, Farage should do better and spend more money on bodyguards who dress better.
A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.
Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.
Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.
There are big u-shaped tables here with little desk mics and black place markers saying “Royaume Uni”. But photography is annoyingly forbidden.
I once wasted five minutes in Soho looking for a pub called the Royaume Uni to meet my French friend. Eventually I worked out it was just something her French phone tagged on to the end and I should look a couple of lines higher up.
That Australian Senator who shouted in the Parliament reminded me of one of those Karen's. Her retweeted picture of the King beheaded was quite offensive I thought.
If he is found guilty, I fear a full downing of weapons from armed response police.
Finally, an effective vetting process.
If a jury considers what happened as murder then that's a strong indication that society does not agree with the action taken even in that context. If police officers resign based on that, then we've filtered out a bunch of people whose values or instincts don't align with society as a whole. That can only be a good thing, particularly when guns are involved.
That's not to say I would agree with a particular verdict.
Well, no, because they could just be preferring Republican type values and policies on things like tax and abortion. It's not my sort of politics but "stupid" isn't the word for it.
Trump's coalition (with some overlap) is Always-GOP plus the MAGA Cult plus a chunk of all those voters (many millions) who don't pay that much attention to politics.
"Always-GOP" is stupid
"My guy, right or wrong" is stupid
I am not disputing that there are voters who prefer Republican values, but the guy currently running on the GOP ticket doesn't hold them
Voting for Trump cos he wears a Red tie is by any and all definitions, stupid.
What my erstwhile boss would call "fucking retarded"
I'd be ok with "venal" or "reactionary" or "insular" but I don't think "stupid" is correct for the type of (non MAGA) GOP voter I'm referring to.
I think the Democrats are better, but they seem worse, because they don't have a compelling single story.
This is the modern problem of the Left throughout the West.
Reality - Whoever is in charge things are not going to be as good as it was for previous generations Fantasy - Things will be great if only we get rid of those boring realists
Reality would be a tough sell on its own, but when the billionaire class back the fantasists as an easy way to avoid any scrutiny the fantasists are going to win, not every time, but in general. Each time they do trust and faith in the system declines further once they inevitably fail.
I agree to a large extent, but, however. this manipulative plutocrat class, who generally are not interested in people's living conditions, and might back issues like Brexit, or Trump, for their own reasons, also seem to understand the importance of emotionally in politics much better.
If you're going to counter an extremely powerful group of emotional appeals offered by the right - security, identity, continuity, punishment, vengeance, local belonging, and much else - you're going to have to much better than the modern left is doing. You need to make *everyone*, across all social, cultural and ethnic barriers, *feel better* on themselves for adopting a more leftwing agenda. Material promises and hope are obviously am important part of that, but not all, I would say.
I'm not particularly left or right and see it more as a battle between realists and fantasists. Corbyn sold a nice fantasy too.
I think there is a lot that governments can do to make us happier and healthier and little they can do to make us richer (although they can make us poorer with bad choices). Not sure how to sell it as so much of politics is focused on finances and it is the easiest to measure.
I pretty much agree with this. Except (since I am on the left) I'd add "more equal" to your "happier and healthier" (indeed I think it's a prerequisite of those).
Personally I think life is a lot better for most people in the West than it used to be, but we have a tendency to look on the dark side. I don't understand why the elderly tend to be more right-wing - I don't feel the slightest urge to vote Tory or further right at age 74, and would cheerfully vote for higher taxes to finance more foreign aid. I do feel a sneaking sense of indifference - I'd be sorry to think that the human race died out in 100 years, but to some extent feel that younger generations can choose how they want to live. The exception is that the dice are clearly still very much loaded to people in countries that are relatively wealthy and at peace.
Have you ever considered that you're a bit weird?
I presume you're highly educated yet still voted Conservative, which makes you "weirder" than Nick based on voting patterns from GE 24.
Not really. Lots of highly educated people vote Conservative.
18% of people with a degree, compared with 20% aged over 70 for Labour.
This is a more interesting, non partisan analysis of the US urban problems. The likelihood of a Trump administration addressing these better than would Harris is, I would argue, considerably slimmer than he is.
Disgusting, Farage should do better and spend more money on bodyguards who dress better.
A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.
Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.
Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.
Suicide, apparently. Though judging from the sign he was holding naming Vanguard and Blackrock among other enemies of the people, we can't rule out a hitman from TSE's bank.
As in Chisinau, despite the apparent narrow win, as in Pittsburgh, outright sacks of cash reframing elections.
Trump 2.0 looks on. Don't know how many normatives will be broken, how much democracy will be curtailed, how fash things will get. Could be not much, a bit icky, a bit scary, could be a full on disaster for the democratic West. Trump 1.0 was probably just icky in the event, with Jan 6th a projectile vomit against the norms, but that doesn't mean that it wasn't just a steady Joe Root setup for a full on Ben Stokes assault.
It may not end up being much, but I too feel chicken licken about the other side.
Doomy too about the facing early Hitler with a gun dilemma. Leon challenges, if you think it's that bad, then why not support Trump / Musk assassination. Fair question with which to engage. Even if one is doomy about the future with Trump, trying pre-cognition on the exact nature of that (a) risks tipping over a democracy that may yet be repairable and has much legal avenue to run and (b) whilst this is in America's system just moves it on to the next guy.
No.
If the worst is to happen, it is to happen, if America needs to get Trump out of its system, if it needs in a decade to blank out the last decade and pretend it never happened, if Trump and his acolytes need to get all the way to their final bunker, so be it. If I or my kids are to die in democracy's rearguard, so be it, because the love for democracy is strong, will be strong.
It may not come to pass. But it may. And if it does, make sure there is plenty of space in the bunker for those who didn't repent.
I'm feeling pretty gloomy too at the moment about the result. Looks like Trump 2.0 is coming. Harris just isn't pulling ahead enough nationally to be likely to scrape through in swing states that are key. But more than that it is just feels like she is going to fall short.
The betting has it 60/40 Trump and I can't disagree with that based on how the polls are looking. But I'm not folding yet, not by a long chalk. A Harris win is still perfectly compatible with where we are.
If Kamala loses, it will be because of a combination of racism by whites and sexism by men. A double whammy. Nothing to do with Trump. Racism was tested by Obama and he won. Sexism was tested by H Clinton and she lost.
Racism and sexism are the unknowns. Apart from that, she has it in the bag. I'm sceptical of the betting for reasons we've discussed. I don't think the polling is being grossly distorted by GOP bias. I just think [hope] it is wrong as it was in 2016.
Gender is a bigger obstacle for her than race imo.
Disgusting, Farage should do better and spend more money on bodyguards who dress better.
A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.
Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.
Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
Suicide, apparently. Though judging from the sign he was holding naming Vanguard and Blackrock among other enemies of the people, we can't rule out a hitman from TSE's bank.
Did the global corrupt conspiracy extend to his educators?
Suicide, apparently. Though judging from the sign he was holding naming Vanguard and Blackrock among other enemies of the people, we can't rule out a hitman from TSE's bank.
Look luv, you can come up with these old school phrases as much as you like, it might be mental but it will just fall on deaf ears. It will be raining cats and dogs before they fix this, it works much better in third world countries.
Brain storming being offensive to people with epilepsy is another...
The thing is when you actually talk to people who are supposed offended by this, 99% aren't, never even entered their head it might be.
We’re only a few weeks away from the annual stories about “Muslims find ‘Christmas’ offensive”.
No they don’t, it’s the educated white liberal wokesters in HR at the council who find ‘Christmas’ offensive, and think you should too.
We'll get the debate over GMT v. BST and poppy fascism before that.
Only a week until the annual clocks debate. So looking forward to it all over again.
I know this is responding to your entirely valid point in entirely the wrong way, but I’m really looking forward to the clocks going back. I’m finding it increasingly difficult to get up in the dark mornings; the first few weeks of November always comes a s a blessed relief. Granted come late November it’ll be just as dark but at least we’ve got a month’s reprise.
As in Chisinau, despite the apparent narrow win, as in Pittsburgh, outright sacks of cash reframing elections.
Trump 2.0 looks on. Don't know how many normatives will be broken, how much democracy will be curtailed, how fash things will get. Could be not much, a bit icky, a bit scary, could be a full on disaster for the democratic West. Trump 1.0 was probably just icky in the event, with Jan 6th a projectile vomit against the norms, but that doesn't mean that it wasn't just a steady Joe Root setup for a full on Ben Stokes assault.
It may not end up being much, but I too feel chicken licken about the other side.
Doomy too about the facing early Hitler with a gun dilemma. Leon challenges, if you think it's that bad, then why not support Trump / Musk assassination. Fair question with which to engage. Even if one is doomy about the future with Trump, trying pre-cognition on the exact nature of that (a) risks tipping over a democracy that may yet be repairable and has much legal avenue to run and (b) whilst this is in America's system just moves it on to the next guy.
No.
If the worst is to happen, it is to happen, if America needs to get Trump out of its system, if it needs in a decade to blank out the last decade and pretend it never happened, if Trump and his acolytes need to get all the way to their final bunker, so be it. If I or my kids are to die in democracy's rearguard, so be it, because the love for democracy is strong, will be strong.
It may not come to pass. But it may. And if it does, make sure there is plenty of space in the bunker for those who didn't repent.
I'm feeling pretty gloomy too at the moment about the result. Looks like Trump 2.0 is coming. Harris just isn't pulling ahead enough nationally to be likely to scrape through in swing states that are key. But more than that it is just feels like she is going to fall short.
The betting has it 60/40 Trump and I can't disagree with that based on how the polls are looking. But I'm not folding yet, not by a long chalk. A Harris win is still perfectly compatible with where we are.
Feeling nostalgic for the days when you were convinced Trump wouldn't be the nominee. Fifteen days to go and you've been worn down to, "A Harris win is still perfectly compatible with where we are."
Ouch.
Ah but it'll be nice being proved right in the end. All the better for the rocky path. Like getting the 3 pts with the late late winner.
I think the Democrats are better, but they seem worse, because they don't have a compelling single story.
This is the modern problem of the Left throughout the West.
Reality - Whoever is in charge things are not going to be as good as it was for previous generations Fantasy - Things will be great if only we get rid of those boring realists
Reality would be a tough sell on its own, but when the billionaire class back the fantasists as an easy way to avoid any scrutiny the fantasists are going to win, not every time, but in general. Each time they do trust and faith in the system declines further once they inevitably fail.
I agree to a large extent, but, however. this manipulative plutocrat class, who generally are not interested in people's living conditions, and might back issues like Brexit, or Trump, for their own reasons, also seem to understand the importance of emotionally in politics much better.
If you're going to counter an extremely powerful group of emotional appeals offered by the right - security, identity, continuity, punishment, vengeance, local belonging, and much else - you're going to have to much better than the modern left is doing. You need to make *everyone*, across all social, cultural and ethnic barriers, *feel better* on themselves for adopting a more leftwing agenda. Material promises and hope are obviously am important part of that, but not all, I would say.
I'm not particularly left or right and see it more as a battle between realists and fantasists. Corbyn sold a nice fantasy too.
I think there is a lot that governments can do to make us happier and healthier and little they can do to make us richer (although they can make us poorer with bad choices). Not sure how to sell it as so much of politics is focused on finances and it is the easiest to measure.
I pretty much agree with this. Except (since I am on the left) I'd add "more equal" to your "happier and healthier" (indeed I think it's a prerequisite of those).
Personally I think life is a lot better for most people in the West than it used to be, but we have a tendency to look on the dark side. I don't understand why the elderly tend to be more right-wing - I don't feel the slightest urge to vote Tory or further right at age 74, and would cheerfully vote for higher taxes to finance more foreign aid. I do feel a sneaking sense of indifference - I'd be sorry to think that the human race died out in 100 years, but to some extent feel that younger generations can choose how they want to live. The exception is that the dice are clearly still very much loaded to people in countries that are relatively wealthy and at peace.
Have you ever considered that you're a bit weird?
If he is, so am I. I more or less absolutely agree with Nick Palmer. In particular about our tendency to look on the dark side when we have a lot going for us.
If he is found guilty, I fear a full downing of weapons from armed response police.
Finally, an effective vetting process.
So you think vetting has never been effective ?
Wayne Couzens was a pretty big miss.
If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
I think the Democrats are better, but they seem worse, because they don't have a compelling single story.
This is the modern problem of the Left throughout the West.
Reality - Whoever is in charge things are not going to be as good as it was for previous generations Fantasy - Things will be great if only we get rid of those boring realists
Reality would be a tough sell on its own, but when the billionaire class back the fantasists as an easy way to avoid any scrutiny the fantasists are going to win, not every time, but in general. Each time they do trust and faith in the system declines further once they inevitably fail.
I agree to a large extent, but, however. this manipulative plutocrat class, who generally are not interested in people's living conditions, and might back issues like Brexit, or Trump, for their own reasons, also seem to understand the importance of emotionally in politics much better.
If you're going to counter an extremely powerful group of emotional appeals offered by the right - security, identity, continuity, punishment, vengeance, local belonging, and much else - you're going to have to much better than the modern left is doing. You need to make *everyone*, across all social, cultural and ethnic barriers, *feel better* on themselves for adopting a more leftwing agenda. Material promises and hope are obviously am important part of that, but not all, I would say.
I'm not particularly left or right and see it more as a battle between realists and fantasists. Corbyn sold a nice fantasy too.
I think there is a lot that governments can do to make us happier and healthier and little they can do to make us richer (although they can make us poorer with bad choices). Not sure how to sell it as so much of politics is focused on finances and it is the easiest to measure.
I pretty much agree with this. Except (since I am on the left) I'd add "more equal" to your "happier and healthier" (indeed I think it's a prerequisite of those).
Personally I think life is a lot better for most people in the West than it used to be, but we have a tendency to look on the dark side. I don't understand why the elderly tend to be more right-wing - I don't feel the slightest urge to vote Tory or further right at age 74, and would cheerfully vote for higher taxes to finance more foreign aid. I do feel a sneaking sense of indifference - I'd be sorry to think that the human race died out in 100 years, but to some extent feel that younger generations can choose how they want to live. The exception is that the dice are clearly still very much loaded to people in countries that are relatively wealthy and at peace.
Have you ever considered that you're a bit weird?
If he is, so am I. I more or less absolutely agree with Nick Palmer. In particular about our tendency to look on the dark side when we have a lot going for us.
Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.
God, some political hacks are such drama queens. We were removing litter bins from London stations in the early 90s because the IRA were putting bombs in them, and holding football fans behind huge wire cages until Hillsborough. That wasn’t exactly high trust.
The same hacks will be all for expanding stop and search, so long as it doesn’t affect them personally.
Though Downing Street is still fenced off, with armed guards, despite this having originally been a temporary precaution against the IRA.
Income tax was a temporary precaution against the French.
If he is found guilty, I fear a full downing of weapons from armed response police.
Finally, an effective vetting process.
So you think vetting has never been effective ?
Wayne Couzens was a pretty big miss.
If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
He wasn't fire arms officer was he? AFAIK, for the scandal amongst the MET, the firearm officers are never among them. The fact that we can pretty much recall every bad shooting over the course of 20+ years is testament to how that part of the MET seems to work very well.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
If he is found guilty, I fear a full downing of weapons from armed response police.
Finally, an effective vetting process.
So you think vetting has never been effective ?
Wayne Couzens was a pretty big miss.
If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
Couzens was missed by Kent Police in 2012. Nothing to do with the Met Firearms Unit.
I asked you why you think vetting has never been effective in that part of the Police force ?
If he is found guilty, I fear a full downing of weapons from armed response police.
Finally, an effective vetting process.
So you think vetting has never been effective ?
Wayne Couzens was a pretty big miss.
If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
He wasn't fire arms officer was he? AFAIK, for the scandal amongst the MET, the firearm officers are never among them. The fact that we can pretty much recall every bad shooting over the course of 20+ years is testament to how that part of the MET seems to work very well.
The armed response unit seems pretty good. I would not blame Police officers deciding the risk is not worth the reward and standing down.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
Disgusting, Farage should do better and spend more money on bodyguards who dress better.
A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.
Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.
Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.
Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in.
God, some political hacks are such drama queens. We were removing litter bins from London stations in the early 90s because the IRA were putting bombs in them, and holding football fans behind huge wire cages until Hillsborough. That wasn’t exactly high trust.
The same hacks will be all for expanding stop and search, so long as it doesn’t affect them personally.
Though Downing Street is still fenced off, with armed guards, despite this having originally been a temporary precaution against the IRA.
Income tax was a temporary precaution against the French.
Disgusting, Farage should do better and spend more money on bodyguards who dress better.
A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.
Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.
Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
Donald Trump's support does skew stupid, particularly in the MAGA ranks, you'd need to be a bit stupid yourself not to detect this. However large numbers of people who are not at all stupid will be voting for him. He'd have no chance if this weren't the case. Why is it the case? Because he's the GOP candidate. Much of his vote will come from people who always vote Republican.
The Venn diagram of "people who always vote Republican" regardless of who the candidate is and "stupid" is very nearly a perfect circle
I think your understanding of US politics is deficient.
To a UK centrist, what US voters should care about is abortion, abortion, abortion.
But, that's not how US voters see matters.
Your understanding of UK centrists is equally deficient. What they think US voters should care about the most is that one of the candidates is a demagogue who tried to stay in power after being voted out.
If he is found guilty, I fear a full downing of weapons from armed response police.
Finally, an effective vetting process.
So you think vetting has never been effective ?
Wayne Couzens was a pretty big miss.
If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
He wasn't fire arms officer was he? AFAIK, for the scandal amongst the MET, the firearm officers are never among them. The fact that we can pretty much recall every bad shooting over the course of 20+ years is testament to how that part of the MET seems to work very well.
The armed response unit seems pretty good. I would not blame Police officers deciding the risk is not worth the reward and standing down.
Wayne Couzens was a firearms officer with the Civil Nuclear Constabulary
He joined the Met as a firearms officer and then moved to the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection unit.
So vetting failed multiple times - and at multiple levels.
Suicide, apparently. Though judging from the sign he was holding naming Vanguard and Blackrock among other enemies of the people, we can't rule out a hitman from TSE's bank.
It took me a while to work out what he had against TV medics.
Donald Trump's support does skew stupid, particularly in the MAGA ranks, you'd need to be a bit stupid yourself not to detect this. However large numbers of people who are not at all stupid will be voting for him. He'd have no chance if this weren't the case. Why is it the case? Because he's the GOP candidate. Much of his vote will come from people who always vote Republican.
The Venn diagram of "people who always vote Republican" regardless of who the candidate is and "stupid" is very nearly a perfect circle
I think your understanding of US politics is deficient.
To a UK centrist, what US voters should care about is abortion, abortion, abortion.
But, that's not how US voters see matters.
Your understanding of UK centrists is equally deficient. What they think US voters should care about the most is that one of the candidates is a demagogue who tried to stay in power after being voted out.
OK, we all have blind spots... but it's an awfully big one.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
Do you blame Biden/Harris, too ?
Yes, they are totally responsible for delinquent youths in North East England
But Leon's point is perfectly reasonable, wherever it is happening.
People's lived experience and perception of crime is an issue and certainly some parts of the USA have seen stores closing due to crime.
If he is found guilty, I fear a full downing of weapons from armed response police.
Finally, an effective vetting process.
So you think vetting has never been effective ?
Wayne Couzens was a pretty big miss.
If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
Couzens was missed by Kent Police in 2012. Nothing to do with the Met Firearms Unit.
I asked you why you think vetting has never been effective in that part of the Police force ?
I didn't suggest that. The problem with a vetting process is that you're never going to catch everyone, but if they self-select then it makes it much easier.
If a jury finds the officer guilty of murder then you can't swivel out of it. It's common law, so you'd have to do something absurd like legislate to make it legal for police officers to do it.
If he is found guilty, I fear a full downing of weapons from armed response police.
Finally, an effective vetting process.
So you think vetting has never been effective ?
Wayne Couzens was a pretty big miss.
If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
He wasn't fire arms officer was he? AFAIK, for the scandal amongst the MET, the firearm officers are never among them. The fact that we can pretty much recall every bad shooting over the course of 20+ years is testament to how that part of the MET seems to work very well.
The armed response unit seems pretty good. I would not blame Police officers deciding the risk is not worth the reward and standing down.
Wayne Couzens was a firearms officer with the Civil Nuclear Constabulary
He joined the Met as a firearms officer and then moved to the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection unit.
So vetting failed multiple times - and at multiple levels.
I think that's a vetting failure at two places the Civil Nuclear Constabulary, and the Met when he transferred but even that initial transfer was probably a half baked check because he had been previously vetted by another police force..
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
Do you blame Biden/Harris, too ?
Yes, they are totally responsible for delinquent youths in North East England
But Leon's point is perfectly reasonable, wherever it is happening.
People's lived experience and perception of crime is an issue and certainly some parts of the USA have seen stores closing due to crime.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
So you'll be voting for the next far right demagogue you stumble across, will you? No, didn't think so.
His 'point' is garbage. America is a vast and complex country that has always had (and always will have) big problems. This has never before led to them electing somebody who doesn't respect their democracy and constitution as president. It wouldn't explain it now.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
So you'll be voting for the next far right demagogue you stumble across, will you? No, didn't think so.
His 'point' is garbage. America is a vast and complex country that has always had (and always will have) big problems. This has never before led to them electing somebody who doesn't respect their democracy and constitution as president. It wouldn't explain it now.
In the past, usually both parties tend to make vaguely positive noises about upholding the rule of law. Since 2020, the Dems have been caught up with the side which wants to abolish the law. Harris (and Biden) might not bear personal responsiblity for this. But the mad west coast cities which have decriminalised shoplifting and the defund the poluice movement have tainted the Dem brand. People value democracy. But actually people value safety more.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
Do you blame Biden/Harris, too ?
Yes, they are totally responsible for delinquent youths in North East England
But Leon's point is perfectly reasonable, wherever it is happening.
People's lived experience and perception of crime is an issue and certainly some parts of the USA have seen stores closing due to crime.
"Who Is Favored To Win Pennsylvania's 19 Electoral Votes? Trump wins 54 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Harris wins 46 times out of 100.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
So you'll be voting for the next far right demagogue you stumble across, will you? No, didn't think so.
His 'point' is garbage. America is a vast and complex country that has always had (and always will have) big problems. This has never before led to them electing somebody who doesn't respect their democracy and constitution as president. It wouldn't explain it now.
In the past, usually both parties tend to make vaguely positive noises about upholding the rule of law. Since 2020, the Dems have been caught up with the side which wants to abolish the law. Harris (and Biden) might not bear personal responsiblity for this. But the mad west coast cities which have decriminalised shoplifting and the defund the poluice movement have tainted the Dem brand. People value democracy. But actually people value safety more.
Alternatively some may consider the party that is led by a convicted felon who cheerleads rioters and murderers the party outside of law and order.
If he is found guilty, I fear a full downing of weapons from armed response police.
Finally, an effective vetting process.
So you think vetting has never been effective ?
Wayne Couzens was a pretty big miss.
If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
He wasn't fire arms officer was he? AFAIK, for the scandal amongst the MET, the firearm officers are never among them. The fact that we can pretty much recall every bad shooting over the course of 20+ years is testament to how that part of the MET seems to work very well.
The armed response unit seems pretty good. I would not blame Police officers deciding the risk is not worth the reward and standing down.
Wayne Couzens was a firearms officer with the Civil Nuclear Constabulary
He joined the Met as a firearms officer and then moved to the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection unit.
So vetting failed multiple times - and at multiple levels.
I think that's a vetting failure at two places the Civil Nuclear Constabulary, and the Met when he transferred but even that initial transfer was probably a half baked check because he had been previously vetted by another police force..
If I vetted an employee with a “half-baked” check, because a related bank had checked him a couple of years previously, I would be liable. According to the FSA.
Kent police failed CNC failed Met failed Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection failed (among other things, he didn’t do 2 years in the regular Met first)
He needed to be vetted by all of them. Properly. Someone Else’s Problem is the excuse of the professionally incompetent.
I think the Democrats are better, but they seem worse, because they don't have a compelling single story.
This is the modern problem of the Left throughout the West.
Reality - Whoever is in charge things are not going to be as good as it was for previous generations Fantasy - Things will be great if only we get rid of those boring realists
Reality would be a tough sell on its own, but when the billionaire class back the fantasists as an easy way to avoid any scrutiny the fantasists are going to win, not every time, but in general. Each time they do trust and faith in the system declines further once they inevitably fail.
I agree to a large extent, but, however. this manipulative plutocrat class, who generally are not interested in people's living conditions, and might back issues like Brexit, or Trump, for their own reasons, also seem to understand the importance of emotionally in politics much better.
If you're going to counter an extremely powerful group of emotional appeals offered by the right - security, identity, continuity, punishment, vengeance, local belonging, and much else - you're going to have to much better than the modern left is doing. You need to make *everyone*, across all social, cultural and ethnic barriers, *feel better* on themselves for adopting a more leftwing agenda. Material promises and hope are obviously am important part of that, but not all, I would say.
I'm not particularly left or right and see it more as a battle between realists and fantasists. Corbyn sold a nice fantasy too.
I think there is a lot that governments can do to make us happier and healthier and little they can do to make us richer (although they can make us poorer with bad choices). Not sure how to sell it as so much of politics is focused on finances and it is the easiest to measure.
I pretty much agree with this. Except (since I am on the left) I'd add "more equal" to your "happier and healthier" (indeed I think it's a prerequisite of those).
Personally I think life is a lot better for most people in the West than it used to be, but we have a tendency to look on the dark side. I don't understand why the elderly tend to be more right-wing - I don't feel the slightest urge to vote Tory or further right at age 74, and would cheerfully vote for higher taxes to finance more foreign aid. I do feel a sneaking sense of indifference - I'd be sorry to think that the human race died out in 100 years, but to some extent feel that younger generations can choose how they want to live. The exception is that the dice are clearly still very much loaded to people in countries that are relatively wealthy and at peace.
Have you ever considered that you're a bit weird?
If he is, so am I. I more or less absolutely agree with Nick Palmer. In particular about our tendency to look on the dark side when we have a lot going for us.
I think this site tends to attract 3 kinds of people: people who are more left-wing than average, people who are more right-wing than average, and election/psephology/statistics anoraks. It has a deficit of swing voters.
Donald Trump's support does skew stupid, particularly in the MAGA ranks, you'd need to be a bit stupid yourself not to detect this. However large numbers of people who are not at all stupid will be voting for him. He'd have no chance if this weren't the case. Why is it the case? Because he's the GOP candidate. Much of his vote will come from people who always vote Republican.
The Venn diagram of "people who always vote Republican" regardless of who the candidate is and "stupid" is very nearly a perfect circle
I think your understanding of US politics is deficient.
To a UK centrist, what US voters should care about is abortion, abortion, abortion.
But, that's not how US voters see matters.
Your understanding of UK centrists is equally deficient. What they think US voters should care about the most is that one of the candidates is a demagogue who tried to stay in power after being voted out.
I think the Democrats are better, but they seem worse, because they don't have a compelling single story.
This is the modern problem of the Left throughout the West.
Reality - Whoever is in charge things are not going to be as good as it was for previous generations Fantasy - Things will be great if only we get rid of those boring realists
Reality would be a tough sell on its own, but when the billionaire class back the fantasists as an easy way to avoid any scrutiny the fantasists are going to win, not every time, but in general. Each time they do trust and faith in the system declines further once they inevitably fail.
I agree to a large extent, but, however. this manipulative plutocrat class, who generally are not interested in people's living conditions, and might back issues like Brexit, or Trump, for their own reasons, also seem to understand the importance of emotionally in politics much better.
If you're going to counter an extremely powerful group of emotional appeals offered by the right - security, identity, continuity, punishment, vengeance, local belonging, and much else - you're going to have to much better than the modern left is doing. You need to make *everyone*, across all social, cultural and ethnic barriers, *feel better* on themselves for adopting a more leftwing agenda. Material promises and hope are obviously am important part of that, but not all, I would say.
I'm not particularly left or right and see it more as a battle between realists and fantasists. Corbyn sold a nice fantasy too.
I think there is a lot that governments can do to make us happier and healthier and little they can do to make us richer (although they can make us poorer with bad choices). Not sure how to sell it as so much of politics is focused on finances and it is the easiest to measure.
I pretty much agree with this. Except (since I am on the left) I'd add "more equal" to your "happier and healthier" (indeed I think it's a prerequisite of those).
Personally I think life is a lot better for most people in the West than it used to be, but we have a tendency to look on the dark side. I don't understand why the elderly tend to be more right-wing - I don't feel the slightest urge to vote Tory or further right at age 74, and would cheerfully vote for higher taxes to finance more foreign aid. I do feel a sneaking sense of indifference - I'd be sorry to think that the human race died out in 100 years, but to some extent feel that younger generations can choose how they want to live. The exception is that the dice are clearly still very much loaded to people in countries that are relatively wealthy and at peace.
Have you ever considered that you're a bit weird?
If he is, so am I. I more or less absolutely agree with Nick Palmer. In particular about our tendency to look on the dark side when we have a lot going for us.
I think this site tends to attract 3 kinds of people: people who are more left-wing than average, people who are more right-wing than average, and election/psephology/statistics anoraks. It has a deficit of swing voters.
It's male, older, and a bit aspergy- probably because it's focused on the betting.
I'd say it's also more socially liberal and republican (small r) than the population at large.
Never read enough about this. But it seems a very large number of French actively and enthusiastically collaborated with the Germans during WWII, including betraying allied PoWs and generally aiding and abetting their racial policies.
Donald Trump's support does skew stupid, particularly in the MAGA ranks, you'd need to be a bit stupid yourself not to detect this. However large numbers of people who are not at all stupid will be voting for him. He'd have no chance if this weren't the case. Why is it the case? Because he's the GOP candidate. Much of his vote will come from people who always vote Republican.
The Venn diagram of "people who always vote Republican" regardless of who the candidate is and "stupid" is very nearly a perfect circle
I think your understanding of US politics is deficient.
To a UK centrist, what US voters should care about is abortion, abortion, abortion.
But, that's not how US voters see matters.
Your understanding of UK centrists is equally deficient. What they think US voters should care about the most is that one of the candidates is a demagogue who tried to stay in power after being voted out.
But, if they don't, who cares?
Your analysis is entirely irrelevant.
Merely correcting Sean's misconception about UK centrists.
Who cares about WH24? We all do on 2 fronts:
We want to work out value bets. We want America to elect or avoid electing Trump (depending on our politics and brain chemistry).
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
Do you blame Biden/Harris, too ?
Yes, they are totally responsible for delinquent youths in North East England
But Leon's point is perfectly reasonable, wherever it is happening.
People's lived experience and perception of crime is an issue and certainly some parts of the USA have seen stores closing due to crime.
Again with the "lived experience". Perhaps it is a useful term, after all.
Anyway, reposting this, which no one seems to have read. It's a more sensible analysis of the urban problem in the US, and gives a better idea of how solutions might be thought about.
Never read enough about this. But it seems a very large number of French actively and enthusiastically collaborated with the Germans during WWII, including betraying allied PoWs and generally aiding and abetting their racial policies.
What caused this?
The clericalist and rural right.in France never really accepted the Revolution, and some in France were seduced by the idea of a shared Nordic heritage.
Something similar may have happened in parts of the U.K., part particularly in relation to parts of the country who felt the closest Nordic or Germanic connections.
Sounds like a bargain at double the price, this is further proof that society values lawyers.
Elite lawyers raise fees 40pc to £449 per hour amid ballooning costs
PwC survey shows firms are increasing number of billable hours amid rebound in deal-making
Britain’s biggest law firms are charging their clients 40pc more an hour compared to five years ago as they pass on higher costs to customers, a new report has found.
According to PwC’s annual law firm survey published on Monday, the 10 largest UK-headquartered firms by revenue raised fees to £449 per hour in 2024 – up from £321 in 2019.
These firms also increased the number of billable hours that all lawyers, from trainee to partner, charged clients amid a rebound in deal-making and an active litigation market.
The rise in hourly rates has helped the elite group grow fee income by a record 11.6pc and absorb higher inflationary costs by passing them on to clients.
This includes higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition from US rivals in London, forcing UK law firms to hike salaries to attract and retain talent.
The talent war has seen Britain’s largest law firms, known as the “magic circle”, raise salaries this year for newly qualified solicitors to £150,000 – up 20pc from the prior year.
Disgusting, Farage should do better and spend more money on bodyguards who dress better.
A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.
Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.
Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.
Thank you, viewcode. That's better. Trump lead HALVED in the space of 24 hours.
You have to watch that Williamglenn.
Margin of error on that poll is undoubtedly greater than 1%. Probably a lot greater.
So a 1% change is, essentially, noise.
As I've been saying since the Harristeria on here and across the liberal media, Trump had time to recover ground from her - and he seems to have done it.
PA, WI and MI all feeling, to me, likely to go Red - you heard it here first...!
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
So you'll be voting for the next far right demagogue you stumble across, will you? No, didn't think so.
His 'point' is garbage. America is a vast and complex country that has always had (and always will have) big problems. This has never before led to them electing somebody who doesn't respect their democracy and constitution as president. It wouldn't explain it now.
In the past, usually both parties tend to make vaguely positive noises about upholding the rule of law. Since 2020, the Dems have been caught up with the side which wants to abolish the law. Harris (and Biden) might not bear personal responsiblity for this. But the mad west coast cities which have decriminalised shoplifting and the defund the poluice movement have tainted the Dem brand. People value democracy. But actually people value safety more.
Trump himself probably knows best what is driving his support. That's why he demonises migrants. He's relentless on that. It's the core of his pitch.
"They are dirty and dangerous and I will protect you from them."
"In San Francisco, for instance, it’s illegal not to compost your food scraps. But you can smoke meth outside a playground and suffer little more than glares from passersby. In California, college students are required by law to obtain repeated, vocal permission from their partners for a sexual encounter to be deemed not rape. But pimps can openly sex traffic minors on city streets in broad daylight, and the police can do little about it. All of these disparate approaches to perceived social problems are regarded as “progressive”."
Sounds like a bargain at double the price, this is further proof that society values lawyers.
Elite lawyers raise fees 40pc to £449 per hour amid ballooning costs
PwC survey shows firms are increasing number of billable hours amid rebound in deal-making
Britain’s biggest law firms are charging their clients 40pc more an hour compared to five years ago as they pass on higher costs to customers, a new report has found.
According to PwC’s annual law firm survey published on Monday, the 10 largest UK-headquartered firms by revenue raised fees to £449 per hour in 2024 – up from £321 in 2019.
These firms also increased the number of billable hours that all lawyers, from trainee to partner, charged clients amid a rebound in deal-making and an active litigation market.
The rise in hourly rates has helped the elite group grow fee income by a record 11.6pc and absorb higher inflationary costs by passing them on to clients.
This includes higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition from US rivals in London, forcing UK law firms to hike salaries to attract and retain talent.
The talent war has seen Britain’s largest law firms, known as the “magic circle”, raise salaries this year for newly qualified solicitors to £150,000 – up 20pc from the prior year.
Sounds like a bargain at double the price, this is further proof that society values lawyers.
Elite lawyers raise fees 40pc to £449 per hour amid ballooning costs
PwC survey shows firms are increasing number of billable hours amid rebound in deal-making
Britain’s biggest law firms are charging their clients 40pc more an hour compared to five years ago as they pass on higher costs to customers, a new report has found.
According to PwC’s annual law firm survey published on Monday, the 10 largest UK-headquartered firms by revenue raised fees to £449 per hour in 2024 – up from £321 in 2019.
These firms also increased the number of billable hours that all lawyers, from trainee to partner, charged clients amid a rebound in deal-making and an active litigation market.
The rise in hourly rates has helped the elite group grow fee income by a record 11.6pc and absorb higher inflationary costs by passing them on to clients.
This includes higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition from US rivals in London, forcing UK law firms to hike salaries to attract and retain talent.
The talent war has seen Britain’s largest law firms, known as the “magic circle”, raise salaries this year for newly qualified solicitors to £150,000 – up 20pc from the prior year.
Thank you, viewcode. That's better. Trump lead HALVED in the space of 24 hours.
You have to watch that Williamglenn.
Margin of error on that poll is undoubtedly greater than 1%. Probably a lot greater.
So a 1% change is, essentially, noise.
As I've been saying since the Harristeria on here and across the liberal media, Trump had time to recover ground from her - and he seems to have done it.
PA, WI and MI all feeling, to me, likely to go Red - you heard it here first...!
As in Chisinau, despite the apparent narrow win, as in Pittsburgh, outright sacks of cash reframing elections.
Trump 2.0 looks on. Don't know how many normatives will be broken, how much democracy will be curtailed, how fash things will get. Could be not much, a bit icky, a bit scary, could be a full on disaster for the democratic West. Trump 1.0 was probably just icky in the event, with Jan 6th a projectile vomit against the norms, but that doesn't mean that it wasn't just a steady Joe Root setup for a full on Ben Stokes assault.
It may not end up being much, but I too feel chicken licken about the other side.
Doomy too about the facing early Hitler with a gun dilemma. Leon challenges, if you think it's that bad, then why not support Trump / Musk assassination. Fair question with which to engage. Even if one is doomy about the future with Trump, trying pre-cognition on the exact nature of that (a) risks tipping over a democracy that may yet be repairable and has much legal avenue to run and (b) whilst this is in America's system just moves it on to the next guy.
No.
If the worst is to happen, it is to happen, if America needs to get Trump out of its system, if it needs in a decade to blank out the last decade and pretend it never happened, if Trump and his acolytes need to get all the way to their final bunker, so be it. If I or my kids are to die in democracy's rearguard, so be it, because the love for democracy is strong, will be strong.
It may not come to pass. But it may. And if it does, make sure there is plenty of space in the bunker for those who didn't repent.
I'm feeling pretty gloomy too at the moment about the result. Looks like Trump 2.0 is coming. Harris just isn't pulling ahead enough nationally to be likely to scrape through in swing states that are key. But more than that it is just feels like she is going to fall short.
The betting has it 60/40 Trump and I can't disagree with that based on how the polls are looking. But I'm not folding yet, not by a long chalk. A Harris win is still perfectly compatible with where we are.
If Kamala loses, it will be because of a combination of racism by whites and sexism by men. A double whammy. Nothing to do with Trump. Racism was tested by Obama and he won. Sexism was tested by H Clinton and she lost.
Racism and sexism are the unknowns. Apart from that, she has it in the bag. I'm sceptical of the betting for reasons we've discussed. I don't think the polling is being grossly distorted by GOP bias. I just think [hope] it is wrong as it was in 2016.
Gender is a bigger obstacle for her than race imo.
Sounds like a bargain at double the price, this is further proof that society values lawyers.
Elite lawyers raise fees 40pc to £449 per hour amid ballooning costs
PwC survey shows firms are increasing number of billable hours amid rebound in deal-making
Britain’s biggest law firms are charging their clients 40pc more an hour compared to five years ago as they pass on higher costs to customers, a new report has found.
According to PwC’s annual law firm survey published on Monday, the 10 largest UK-headquartered firms by revenue raised fees to £449 per hour in 2024 – up from £321 in 2019.
These firms also increased the number of billable hours that all lawyers, from trainee to partner, charged clients amid a rebound in deal-making and an active litigation market.
The rise in hourly rates has helped the elite group grow fee income by a record 11.6pc and absorb higher inflationary costs by passing them on to clients.
This includes higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition from US rivals in London, forcing UK law firms to hike salaries to attract and retain talent.
The talent war has seen Britain’s largest law firms, known as the “magic circle”, raise salaries this year for newly qualified solicitors to £150,000 – up 20pc from the prior year.
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
Do you blame Biden/Harris, too ?
Yes, they are totally responsible for delinquent youths in North East England
But Leon's point is perfectly reasonable, wherever it is happening.
People's lived experience and perception of crime is an issue and certainly some parts of the USA have seen stores closing due to crime.
Again with the "lived experience". Perhaps it is a useful term, after all.
Anyway, reposting this, which no one seems to have read. It's a more sensible analysis of the urban problem in the US, and gives a better idea of how solutions might be thought about.
It's funny how "lived experience" is totally legitimate when it's people complaining about Haitians eating swans or something, but woke lefty nonsense when it's someone who has experienced discrimination or similar.
I actually think it's a useful phrase, particularly when trying to understand why people vote for Trump or Corbyn etc. For me, it's how irritated people are by cyclists going through red lights when the data is clear about how few do it, and how little danger they pose. You can point at spreadsheets or video analysis as much as you want but people are deeply influenced by their inherent biases and what they can see and hear in person.
A key element or a "lived experience" is not how it was at the time, but how you look back on it. I've had breakups where I was reasonably calm and resigned at the time, but weeks or even months later it starts to have a dreadful effect on me.
As in Chisinau, despite the apparent narrow win, as in Pittsburgh, outright sacks of cash reframing elections.
Trump 2.0 looks on. Don't know how many normatives will be broken, how much democracy will be curtailed, how fash things will get. Could be not much, a bit icky, a bit scary, could be a full on disaster for the democratic West. Trump 1.0 was probably just icky in the event, with Jan 6th a projectile vomit against the norms, but that doesn't mean that it wasn't just a steady Joe Root setup for a full on Ben Stokes assault.
It may not end up being much, but I too feel chicken licken about the other side.
Doomy too about the facing early Hitler with a gun dilemma. Leon challenges, if you think it's that bad, then why not support Trump / Musk assassination. Fair question with which to engage. Even if one is doomy about the future with Trump, trying pre-cognition on the exact nature of that (a) risks tipping over a democracy that may yet be repairable and has much legal avenue to run and (b) whilst this is in America's system just moves it on to the next guy.
No.
If the worst is to happen, it is to happen, if America needs to get Trump out of its system, if it needs in a decade to blank out the last decade and pretend it never happened, if Trump and his acolytes need to get all the way to their final bunker, so be it. If I or my kids are to die in democracy's rearguard, so be it, because the love for democracy is strong, will be strong.
It may not come to pass. But it may. And if it does, make sure there is plenty of space in the bunker for those who didn't repent.
I'm feeling pretty gloomy too at the moment about the result. Looks like Trump 2.0 is coming. Harris just isn't pulling ahead enough nationally to be likely to scrape through in swing states that are key. But more than that it is just feels like she is going to fall short.
The betting has it 60/40 Trump and I can't disagree with that based on how the polls are looking. But I'm not folding yet, not by a long chalk. A Harris win is still perfectly compatible with where we are.
If Kamala loses, it will be because of a combination of racism by whites and sexism by men. A double whammy. Nothing to do with Trump. Racism was tested by Obama and he won. Sexism was tested by H Clinton and she lost.
Racism and sexism are the unknowns. Apart from that, she has it in the bag. I'm sceptical of the betting for reasons we've discussed. I don't think the polling is being grossly distorted by GOP bias. I just think [hope] it is wrong as it was in 2016.
Gender is a bigger obstacle for her than race imo.
"In San Francisco, for instance, it’s illegal not to compost your food scraps. But you can smoke meth outside a playground and suffer little more than glares from passersby. In California, college students are required by law to obtain repeated, vocal permission from their partners for a sexual encounter to be deemed not rape. But pimps can openly sex traffic minors on city streets in broad daylight, and the police can do little about it. All of these disparate approaches to perceived social problems are regarded as “progressive”."
This reminds me of the way in which romantic sex, and eroticism generally, is beginning to disappear from mainstreamn American television altogether, while the country has a vast and brutalised porn culture.
This is some sort of dangerously hypocritical, ultra-puritan model that we really don' want to be importing here, but we are.
"In San Francisco, for instance, it’s illegal not to compost your food scraps. But you can smoke meth outside a playground and suffer little more than glares from passersby. In California, college students are required by law to obtain repeated, vocal permission from their partners for a sexual encounter to be deemed not rape. But pimps can openly sex traffic minors on city streets in broad daylight, and the police can do little about it. All of these disparate approaches to perceived social problems are regarded as “progressive”."
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
You weren't making a cogent and relevant point but this one's OK, so I'll engage. These voters are low information because they are not interested in politics hence why I said I was using the term neutrally. They don't understand the consequence of their vote because of that lack of information and interest. I didn't say they were dumb and to be clear I don't think they are.
lol indeed. PB’s “analysis” of this election is quite pitifully poor and simplistic and biased - with some noble exceptions
Lots and lots and lots of intelligent, aware, high information American voters are going to vote for Trump, even tho they are unhappily cognisant of his multiple flaws
Why? Because, as one despairing educated American put it to me on my last visit “incredibly, the Democrats are even worse”
Genuine question - why did your "despairing educated American" think the Democrats are even worse?
Wokeness, anti whiteness, defund police idiocy, crime, migration, collapsing democrat cities, all the wars under Biden
Crime has fallen under Biden. 'Defund police' isn't a thing. The cities aren't 'collapsing'. The U.S. government has no control over either Putin or Hamas. I'll give you half a point on immigration - but note the Congressional GOP has repeatedly sabotaged Democratic efforts to legislate.
Crime has worsened under Biden in part and in places Defund police was definitely a thing You forgot the "mostly peaceful" BLM riots You ignore Wokeness, anti whiteness and the Trans Black LGBTQIAAA+ DEI horror show Immigration is a disaster Democrat cities like Frisco are a fucking trainwreck Biden was seen as weak, Putin invaded
It's easy to say crime has fallen when theft and drug dealing has been decriminalised.
Crime hasn't fallen, the police just don't record it any longer. Speak to any American about it and suggest to them that crime is falling because the official statistics say so and they'll laugh you out of the room.
The FBI just revised their crime statistics for 2022, such that violent crime was actually up 4% rather than down 2% as originally recorded. They missed 1,600 murders from the original stats.
And that's up 4% even after bug chunks of the west coast stopped recording theft under $500 and drug dealing, but yes "crime is down". Like fuck is crime down, it's worse than ever and I think one of the major drivers of Trump doing well. People yearn for safe streets and parcels not being stolen from their doorsteps again.
Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting
This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
"gonna" ... lol.
That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
So you'll be voting for the next far right demagogue you stumble across, will you? No, didn't think so.
His 'point' is garbage. America is a vast and complex country that has always had (and always will have) big problems. This has never before led to them electing somebody who doesn't respect their democracy and constitution as president. It wouldn't explain it now.
In the past, usually both parties tend to make vaguely positive noises about upholding the rule of law. Since 2020, the Dems have been caught up with the side which wants to abolish the law. Harris (and Biden) might not bear personal responsiblity for this. But the mad west coast cities which have decriminalised shoplifting and the defund the poluice movement have tainted the Dem brand. People value democracy. But actually people value safety more.
Trump himself probably knows best what is driving his support. That's why he demonises migrants. He's relentless on that. It's the core of his pitch.
"They are dirty and dangerous and I will protect you from them."
It's nothing new but he's a skilled practitioner.
They're considerably less 'dangerous' than the born citizens' population, statistically.
And his language goes well beyond that. It's not dissimilar to the language used by Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines, pre Rwandan genocide.
Sounds like a bargain at double the price, this is further proof that society values lawyers.
Elite lawyers raise fees 40pc to £449 per hour amid ballooning costs
PwC survey shows firms are increasing number of billable hours amid rebound in deal-making
Britain’s biggest law firms are charging their clients 40pc more an hour compared to five years ago as they pass on higher costs to customers, a new report has found.
According to PwC’s annual law firm survey published on Monday, the 10 largest UK-headquartered firms by revenue raised fees to £449 per hour in 2024 – up from £321 in 2019.
These firms also increased the number of billable hours that all lawyers, from trainee to partner, charged clients amid a rebound in deal-making and an active litigation market.
The rise in hourly rates has helped the elite group grow fee income by a record 11.6pc and absorb higher inflationary costs by passing them on to clients.
This includes higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition from US rivals in London, forcing UK law firms to hike salaries to attract and retain talent.
The talent war has seen Britain’s largest law firms, known as the “magic circle”, raise salaries this year for newly qualified solicitors to £150,000 – up 20pc from the prior year.
"higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition"
Mmm. Works that way, does it, when it's not doctors or train drivers?
Private sector always does.
Mysteriously this law of supply and demand and scarcity doesn't quite seem to apply to social care workers and people who cut leeks in huge wintry fields.
A woman who threw a McDonald's milkshake over Reform UK leader Nigel Farage during the general election campaign has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.
Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, from Clacton, had previously denied the charge, and will be sentenced at Westminster Magistrates' Court in December.
Comments
something-or-other, on Twitter.
Her profile photo was of a young blonde in a Baywatch-styie, but holding a very large semi-automatic rifle. She did seem to be a real person, though, judging from the exchanges with Marjorie Taylor Greene that were on her page.
I've personally come close to being mowed down by people on ebikes twice this year, have had friends had their phones snatched out of their hands, know people who've been pickpocketed, had mates with girlfriends who've been followed home from the tube. Either my friends have had a particularly unlucky year or something is up. As a result I'm always on my guard now in a way I never used to be. A sense of low level menace I haven't felt on the streets in years, since before CCTV was widespread. And I don't think it's just London. See Taz the other day making a similar point about youths intimidating a village near him up north.
So even though stats for big ticket items like stabbing and shooting and breaking and entering might be down, no amount of being battered over the head with statistics is going to convince me that things are getting better. It's the low level stuff that changes your experience, your perception, and hence, how you vote.
It is interesting how the press frames this and the picture they always use of him. Happy and smiling. Butter wouldn't melt.
Mind you I think if it is a not guilty then there will be a reaction too from people who have convinced themselves he was murdered.
Seems like the polymarket whale dumping money on Trump was ahead of the game?
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/21/harris-trump-tied-battle-latino-black-voters/75682566007/
Much better to keep them dependent on the state like modern-day serfs. That way they'll continue to vote Labour forever.
The only time you used to see that sort of setup 15 years ago was really rough part of the country in a off licence.
A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.
Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.
Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/21/farage-milkshake-thrower-victoria-thomas-bowen-guilty-plea/
https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1848120954985250905
Like Musk even cares.
If a jury considers what happened as murder then that's a strong indication that society does not agree with the action taken even in that context. If police officers resign based on that, then we've filtered out a bunch of people whose values or instincts don't align with society as a whole. That can only be a good thing, particularly when guns are involved.
That's not to say I would agree with a particular verdict.
#New General election Tracking poll
🔴 Trump 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris 47%
Oct 16 - 🔵 Harris +4
Tipp #A+ - 1254 LV - 10/20
The likelihood of a Trump administration addressing these better than would Harris is, I would argue, considerably slimmer than he is.
Facing multiple crises, how can cities survive?
https://thehill.com/future-america/future-of-cities/4934050-cities-crises-climate-finances-housing/
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/rioter-dies-in-prison-peter-lynch-southport-riots/
Suicide, apparently. Though judging from the sign he was holding naming Vanguard and Blackrock among other enemies of the people, we can't rule out a hitman from TSE's bank.
They think it's Moldova. It Chișinău!
Though WEF.
Nov 6th. The Big Binary. Elation or Despair?
If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election
less than 20% of degree educated people voted Conservative in '24, vs 40% Labour, 22% of those with household income of 70k+ vs 40% Labour.
AI’s Hardware Problem, Asianometry, YouTube, 16 mins. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tmGKTNW8DQ
I asked you why you think vetting has never been effective in that part of the Police force ?
Dear God.
Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.
Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking-poll-day-8-trump-leads-harris-48-47/
Or perhaps the fieldwork was from before.
He joined the Met as a firearms officer and then moved to the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection unit.
So vetting failed multiple times - and at multiple levels.
Our fate is in the hands of a chancellor who had her credit card suspended"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/britain-hands-chancellor-credit-card-suspended/
But Leon's point is perfectly reasonable, wherever it is happening.
People's lived experience and perception of crime is an issue and certainly some parts of the USA have seen stores closing due to crime.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/26/business/target-retail-theft-store-closures/index.html
If a jury finds the officer guilty of murder then you can't swivel out of it. It's common law, so you'd have to do something absurd like legislate to make it legal for police officers to do it.
His 'point' is garbage. America is a vast and complex country that has always had (and always will have) big problems. This has never before led to them electing somebody who doesn't respect their democracy and constitution as president. It wouldn't explain it now.
People value democracy. But actually people value safety more.
Trump wins 54 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Harris wins 46 times out of 100.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
Kent police failed
CNC failed
Met failed
Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection failed (among other things, he didn’t do 2 years in the regular Met first)
He needed to be vetted by all of them. Properly. Someone Else’s Problem is the excuse of the professionally incompetent.
You have to watch that Williamglenn.
Your analysis is entirely irrelevant.
I'd say it's also more socially liberal and republican (small r) than the population at large.
Never read enough about this. But it seems a very large number of French actively and enthusiastically collaborated with the Germans during WWII, including betraying allied PoWs and generally aiding and abetting their racial policies.
What caused this?
Who cares about WH24? We all do on 2 fronts:
We want to work out value bets. We want America to elect or avoid electing Trump (depending on our politics and brain chemistry).
Perhaps it is a useful term, after all.
Anyway, reposting this, which no one seems to have read.
It's a more sensible analysis of the urban problem in the US, and gives a better idea of how solutions might be thought about.
Facing multiple crises, how can cities survive?
https://thehill.com/future-america/future-of-cities/4934050-cities-crises-climate-finances-housing/
Something similar may have happened in parts of the U.K., part particularly in relation to parts of the country who felt the closest Nordic or Germanic connections.
Elite lawyers raise fees 40pc to £449 per hour amid ballooning costs
PwC survey shows firms are increasing number of billable hours amid rebound in deal-making
Britain’s biggest law firms are charging their clients 40pc more an hour compared to five years ago as they pass on higher costs to customers, a new report has found.
According to PwC’s annual law firm survey published on Monday, the 10 largest UK-headquartered firms by revenue raised fees to £449 per hour in 2024 – up from £321 in 2019.
These firms also increased the number of billable hours that all lawyers, from trainee to partner, charged clients amid a rebound in deal-making and an active litigation market.
The rise in hourly rates has helped the elite group grow fee income by a record 11.6pc and absorb higher inflationary costs by passing them on to clients.
This includes higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition from US rivals in London, forcing UK law firms to hike salaries to attract and retain talent.
The talent war has seen Britain’s largest law firms, known as the “magic circle”, raise salaries this year for newly qualified solicitors to £150,000 – up 20pc from the prior year.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/21/elite-lawyers-raise-fees-40pc-amid-ballooning-costs/
So a 1% change is, essentially, noise.
PA, WI and MI all feeling, to me, likely to go Red - you heard it here first...!
"They are dirty and dangerous and I will protect you from them."
It's nothing new but he's a skilled practitioner.
"In San Francisco, for instance, it’s illegal not to compost your food scraps. But you can smoke meth outside a playground and suffer little more than glares from passersby. In California, college students are required by law to obtain repeated, vocal permission from their partners for a sexual encounter to be deemed not rape. But pimps can openly sex traffic minors on city streets in broad daylight, and the police can do little about it. All of these disparate approaches to perceived social problems are regarded as “progressive”."
https://unherd.com/2024/10/californias-woes-were-born-in-england/
Mmm. Works that way, does it, when it's not doctors or train drivers?
Kamala is for “they/them”, not for you.
https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1847984248092762622
I actually think it's a useful phrase, particularly when trying to understand why people vote for Trump or Corbyn etc. For me, it's how irritated people are by cyclists going through red lights when the data is clear about how few do it, and how little danger they pose. You can point at spreadsheets or video analysis as much as you want but people are deeply influenced by their inherent biases and what they can see and hear in person.
A key element or a "lived experience" is not how it was at the time, but how you look back on it. I've had breakups where I was reasonably calm and resigned at the time, but weeks or even months later it starts to have a dreadful effect on me.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1848349656738066753
This is some sort of dangerously hypocritical, ultra-puritan model that we really don' want to be importing here, but we are.
And his language goes well beyond that. It's not dissimilar to the language used by Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines, pre Rwandan genocide.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd7x17ljpzgo
A woman who threw a McDonald's milkshake over Reform UK leader Nigel Farage during the general election campaign has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.
Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, from Clacton, had previously denied the charge, and will be sentenced at Westminster Magistrates' Court in December.