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Spread betting on the White House race – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,617

    Glad to hear I'm not a total freak, even if a partial one.

    The problem is that if the robot becomes too human, we are back to square 1.
    You are then into Asimov's George Nine and George Ten, see “That Thou art Mindful of Him” (1974), who reason that they are more human then the humans, and therefore should rule.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,468
    edited October 2024
    kinabalu said:

    And bars/pubs. A lot of it goes on there. The black economy is vast. If Vice were an official industry sector it'd be one of the biggest.
    Bars / pubs are harder, because you actually have to order booze and the tax man has huge data on what such orders should generate in terms of revenue, wastage, etc. Barbers are perfect as the product is a service, with the only things you buy in is the odd bit of oil for the razer and the leccy.

    There was a Chinese takeaway chain that got busted a few years ago for laundering £30 million, but it was only because they didn't pay the VAT bill. The tax man then looked at the books and wasn't hard to find the amount of goods ordered didn't match the sales.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172
    MaxPB said:

    I heard lots of rumblings within the tech/AI industries last night at a trade event that companies are worried that Labour will trade away AI regulatory sovereignty to the EU in any negotiation over the goods border controls. They all said pretty much in unison that the EU is determined to bring the UK into their regulatory net because they understand the threat that having a huge innovator right on their border that isn't beholden to their terrible regulations. It seems mad that rather than fix their regulatory errors the approach is to force other countries to adopt the backwards rules also they don't have to deal with any competition.

    As it stands any European person or business interested in developing AI seriously hops over the channel or Irish sea to the UK and last night I spoke to a large European company that has basically told their existing AI dev team they have two options, redundancy or move to the UK to their existing base in Birmingham. Even speaking to the professionals from Europe they know it's bad, every single one of them sees how far EU countries are falling back right now and none of them have any answers beyond moving to the UK or US because they seem to recognise the EU isn't going to budge on the regulatory stance.
    The idea that the EU can avoid assimilation once the US and UK have fallen is touchingly naive,
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    Bars / pubs are harder, because you actually have to order booze and the tax man has huge data on what such orders should generate in terms of revenue, wastage, etc. Barbers are perfect as the product is a service, with the only things you buy in is the odd bit of oil for the razer and the leccy.
    Massage/beauty treatment places too. Anything which sells "services rendered" as the main product.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793
    edited October 2024
    Cookie said:

    My understanding is that one of the first problems to address was how you start a conversation. At first, people simply picked up the phone and listened and waited. Which given the lack of dialling tones wasn't much help for whoever was on the other end. Bell favoured answering with a jaunty "Ahoy!", but it didn't catch on. "Hello" wasn't really a greeting back then - it was more a rhetorical question, a "what's going on here then". It became common in the same way Italians answer the telephone with 'pronto!' ('ready!') I think we get its current sense as a greeting from its use in answering the telephone.
    When I was small the household telephone was normally answered with the last four digits of your phone number in order that the caller could confirm to himself that he had dialled the right number (or at least if there was an errorthat ithad been early on in his dialling.)
    Like this surely ...
  • Sandpit said:

    Whoops.
    A £1bn here, a £1bn there, soon adds up to some serious money.
  • Cookie said:

    I'm sure I will inadvertently manage it.
    I think I annoyed @Anabobazina yesterday, and her/his repetitive insistence that Sir Keir is a paragon of unparalleled virtue has demonstrated that she/he is in reality an AI bot from Labour Party Central Office. So it is definitely possible.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793
    edited October 2024

    Bars / pubs are harder, because you actually have to order booze and the tax man has huge data on what such orders should generate in terms of revenue, wastage, etc. Barbers are perfect as the product is a service, with the only things you buy in is the odd bit of oil for the razer and the leccy.

    There was a Chinese takeaway chain that got busted a few years ago for laundering £30 million, but it was only because they didn't pay the VAT bill. The tax man then looked at the books and wasn't hard to find the amount of goods ordered didn't match the sales.
    The demise of cash should hamper things a bit.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    I think I annoyed @Anabobazina yesterday, and her/his repetitive insistence that Sir Keir is a paragon of unparalleled virtue has demonstrated that she/he is in reality an AI bot from Labour Party Central Office. So it is definitely possible.
    That would explain his preference for electronic payment.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    MaxPB said:

    I heard lots of rumblings within the tech/AI industries last night at a trade event that companies are worried that Labour will trade away AI regulatory sovereignty to the EU in any negotiation over the goods border controls. They all said pretty much in unison that the EU is determined to bring the UK into their regulatory net because they understand the threat that having a huge innovator right on their border that isn't beholden to their terrible regulations. It seems mad that rather than fix their regulatory errors the approach is to force other countries to adopt the backwards rules also they don't have to deal with any competition.

    As it stands any European person or business interested in developing AI seriously hops over the channel or Irish sea to the UK and last night I spoke to a large European company that has basically told their existing AI dev team they have two options, redundancy or move to the UK to their existing base in Birmingham. Even speaking to the professionals from Europe they know it's bad, every single one of them sees how far EU countries are falling back right now and none of them have any answers beyond moving to the UK or US because they seem to recognise the EU isn't going to budge on the regulatory stance.
    Indeed. Our freedoms in this area are significant and increasingly precious

    And I bet this government is stupid enough to give them up in return for nada. Cf the Chagos
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,915
    edited October 2024
    MaxPB said:

    Massage/beauty treatment places too. Anything which sells "services rendered" as the main product.
    There are more "industrial" types too.

    Building sites where the contractor is coincidentally related to the site owner and gets paid significant amounts of money - but for some reason the place is never quite finished and the items in the fancy brochure like 'lakeside cabins' or 'fancy houses on a golf course' are never sold or completed. Eventually the site owner winds the project up but only after the contractor gets paid.

    The site is basically abandoned - leaving an eyesore - but never sold.

    Of course, I am not implying that there are any sites like this in the Flatlands...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 935
    Leon said:

    It provokes a trillion questions. eg Why on earth are we importing millions of migrants “to do the work” when in fact all the work will be done by robots? Even - especially - nursing and social care?

    It’s like importing millions of people to look after horses and carry sedan chairs in about 1895. It’s insane
    Nursing and social care generally require a level of empathy which I'd have thought will be difficult to program into a robot.
    Particularly with dementia patients, the difference between someone skilled (and lucky) enough to be able to form a rapport and someone who doesn't can be the patient being settled and content in a normal schedule versus them being unhappy, up all night disrupting everybody else and, worse case, angry and violent.
    It makes the difference between it being feasible to care for them at home and full-time residential care.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    How disingenuous of PB posters to claim Labour has inherited a grown rate of 2.5%. Hasn't there also been a downgrading of growth since Labour came to power for May and June?

    This golden legacy guff is utter nonsense. It was also widely accepted that Sunak went early because the economic KPIs were predicted to trend South.

    Now Labour's start has been painfully slow and there is not much to write home about yet, but claiming the "golden legacy" has been blown in 100 days, when Reeves hasn't done ANYTHING of note yet is just an enormous pair of hairy bollocks.

    PB Tories may be able to come back in a year or two and gloat, but bellyaching about policy that hasn't yet been announced is ludicrous.

    Please find a single post by any Tory voter on here that has used the phrase "golden legacy" in any serious sense.

    You've made up an argument that no one's making and then opposing it. I mean sure you can do that but you're only arguing against some figment of what you think people are saying, not what we're actually saying. It's part of your denial about how shit the current government is that you need to create a new Tory boogeyman to argue against because the truth of this government is causing buyer's remorse among a lot of people who don't want to admit it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,468
    edited October 2024
    kinabalu said:

    The demise of cash should will hamper things too.
    I don't think it will, at least not anytime soon. All legit businesses have already moved strongly away from cash e.g. pretty much every pub I have been in since COVID its card only or come on, please use your card, don't be a dick. Even those businesses who might in the past do something dodgy for a nudge nudge wink wink best price for cash absolutely won't touch it as too expensive to bank. e.g. No second hand car sales want anywhere near cash.

    But all these front businesses, its just factored in as the cost of washing the money.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    Dopermean said:

    Nursing and social care generally require a level of empathy which I'd have thought will be difficult to program into a robot.
    Particularly with dementia patients, the difference between someone skilled (and lucky) enough to be able to form a rapport and someone who doesn't can be the patient being settled and content in a normal schedule versus them being unhappy, up all night disrupting everybody else and, worse case, angry and violent.
    It makes the difference between it being feasible to care for them at home and full-time residential care.
    I’ve got to crack on and work, but I think this is too pessimistic

    But enough. To work!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Cookie said:

    My understanding is that one of the first problems to address was how you start a conversation. At first, people simply picked up the phone and listened and waited. Which given the lack of dialling tones wasn't much help for whoever was on the other end. Bell favoured answering with a jaunty "Ahoy!", but it didn't catch on. "Hello" wasn't really a greeting back then - it was more a rhetorical question, a "what's going on here then". It became common in the same way Italians answer the telephone with 'pronto!' ('ready!') I think we get its current sense as a greeting from its use in answering the telephone.
    When I was small the household telephone was normally answered with the last four digits of your phone number in order that the caller could confirm to himself that he had dialled the right number (or at least if there was an errorthat ithad been early on in his dialling.)
    Ah yes, I remember that convention. Greeting someone with a string of numbers. Quite odd if you think about it, given that the caller can soon tell if it's a wrong number by dint of who is on the other end of the line.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172
    edited October 2024

    A £1bn here, a £1bn there, soon adds up to some serious money.
    Ronald Reagan. Brilliant at summing up a point in a sentence.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 245

    Because although its expensive to put cash in the till of a car wash or barber, the UK authorities have shown little to no willingness or ability to investigate and once its through the till its all legit money here in the UK. Its basically risk free way of doing it.
    Car washes, nail bars may be full of modern slavery, illegal employment and tax evasion, but the idea that its meaningful money laundering is for the birds.

    The American Sweet shops in London, again aren't money laundering but tax evasion (business rates) and you'd have to suspect landlords (for it is they who would be liable if the shops are empty) turn a blind eye at best.

    474 Oxford Street (once a Vodafone shop) a couple of years ago had rates of £350k a year
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,468
    edited October 2024
    kenObi said:

    Car washes, nail bars may be full of modern slavery, illegal employment and tax evasion, but the idea that its meaningful money laundering is for the birds.

    The American Sweet shops in London, again aren't money laundering but tax evasion (business rates) and you'd have to suspect landlords (for it is they who would be liable if the shops are empty) turn a blind eye at best.

    474 Oxford Street (once a Vodafone shop) a couple of years ago had rates of £350k a year
    Quite the opposite. It is serious money in totality.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I think I annoyed @Anabobazina yesterday, and her/his repetitive insistence that Sir Keir is a paragon of unparalleled virtue has demonstrated that she/he is in reality an AI bot from Labour Party Central Office. So it is definitely possible.
    Your pisspoor posts and primary-school standard insults aren't capable of annoying me. You should consider yourself lucky that I even bothered to reply to you.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    Foss said:

    .

    If it's sub-sentient then it's not a slave.
    Yeah - imagine selling that to a jury of robots. And a robot judge.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    DavidL said:

    I will believe we are even getting past the starting post in the war on drugs the day such seizures have an impact on the street price. I have never seen any evidence that they do.
    Indeed. I find these self-congratulatory videos from the vice squad rather pathetic. All that time and money expended to take a tiny fraction of the commodities in a demand-led business. The futility seeps from every pore.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,394

    Yeah - imagine selling that to a jury of robots. And a robot judge.
    Do we get robot lawyers as well? Because that might almost be worth it...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    Quite the opposite. It is serious money in totality.
    Looking for a parking spot recently, I turned into a back street in a not-yet-gentrified part of North Manchester - I counted around 50vape shops, not one with any customers. Something rum tbere, surely...
    21 Harris St
    https://maps.app.goo.gl/177AghTPd8zuLjNj6?g_st=ac
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,468
    edited October 2024
    kenObi said:

    Car washes, nail bars may be full of modern slavery, illegal employment and tax evasion, but the idea that its meaningful money laundering is for the birds.

    The American Sweet shops in London, again aren't money laundering but tax evasion (business rates) and you'd have to suspect landlords (for it is they who would be liable if the shops are empty) turn a blind eye at best.

    474 Oxford Street (once a Vodafone shop) a couple of years ago had rates of £350k a year
    As reported by Private Eye, the American Sweet shops are yes doing the tax evasion on business rates, fiddling VAT, but also alleged that they laundering money from places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Its an absolute joke. Everybody knows these places, its all in plain sight, we can all name at least one in our local area. The barbers, nail bars, the Eastern European shops with no stock, the American Candy Stores (those are Iranian / Iraqi I believe).
    The nail bars around my way are always chockablock, such that it's very difficult to get an appointment, according to my wife.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172
    Cookie said:

    Looking for a parking spot recently, I turned into a back street in a not-yet-gentrified part of North Manchester - I counted around 50vape shops, not one with any customers. Something rum tbere, surely...
    21 Harris St
    https://maps.app.goo.gl/177AghTPd8zuLjNj6?g_st=ac
    Schools not out yet? A whole new generation hooked on nicotine.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,253

    Ah yes, I remember that convention. Greeting someone with a string of numbers. Quite odd if you think about it, given that the caller can soon tell if it's a wrong number by dint of who is on the other end of the line.
    Me too. My parents would answer with the full six digits (omitting the area code). I guess it made sense when they were small and people could answer the phone with, "Walmington 42", and the person on the other end would say "Oh, terribly sorry old chap, I meant to dial 43" (earlier it was maybe even a confirmation to the manual switchboard operator that they'd put the plug in the right hole?). But presented with six digits, you'll often realise after the first couple that you've gone wrong.

    We did go through a period of receiving a lot of orders for lunch etc, as our number was the same, except for two transposed digits, as a local pub. Problem was solved when the pub closed, perhaps due to the perceived grumpiness of the apparent landlady (my mum :lol:)

    Not sure when my parents stopped answering with a string of numbers, some time between 1990 and 2000 at a guess.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,413
    Foss said:

    In all honesty, I've not. That's something I'd prefer to turn down before it ends up like Talkie-Toaster.
    Won't be long before government regulations mandate a toaster (or any cooking appliance) that won't let you have toast(or whatever) because it's bad for your health. Not a long reach from that watch.

    Good afternoon, everybody.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156
    Leon said:

    As was the case with cars

    But the real money was in making cars for the masses. The model T Ford. There will be a model T Ford of house-bots
    People worry about the machines taking over, but the rich possessing armies of robot henchmen might be a more realistic concern.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    The nail bars around my way are always chockablock, such that it's very difficult to get an appointment, according to my wife.
    Yup, so stuffing an extra £20k per week in takings wouldn't be very difficult.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,468
    edited October 2024

    The nail bars around my way are always chockablock, such that it's very difficult to get an appointment, according to my wife.
    Of course there are legit businesses (and dodgy ones that get popular or using illegal bonded labour). I go to a Turkish barber that has been about for 20+ years, that is staffed by Turks and is always rammed because it is well established.

    But that isn't what we are talking about, we are talking about where on a high street you all of a sudden get 4-5 of these open, they isn't anywhere near enough business for them and they are constantly empty.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,617
    kenObi said:

    Car washes, nail bars may be full of modern slavery, illegal employment and tax evasion, but the idea that its meaningful money laundering is for the birds.

    The American Sweet shops in London, again aren't money laundering but tax evasion (business rates) and you'd have to suspect landlords (for it is they who would be liable if the shops are empty) turn a blind eye at best.

    474 Oxford Street (once a Vodafone shop) a couple of years ago had rates of £350k a year
    I went to a Hand Car Wash the other day, as I need to be able to see the little scrape I did on my gatepost to think about a repair.

    They looked at it (usually parked under lime trees so washes are a bit futile in the insect months), and added 50% to the price :smile: .
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189

    Quite the opposite. It is serious money in totality.
    Quite. See "Layering".

    You need a pyramid of smallish transactions to present a nice, reasonable story as to where the money comes from. Most such networks are money laundering *and* tax evasion *and* illegal employment *and* etc rolled into one.

    Would be fun to see my idea for wiping them out implemented.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,617

    Blow to No 10's investment summit as port giant pulls £1bn announcement over P&O row

    The government's Investment Summit has suffered a major blow after ports and logistics giant DP World pulled a scheduled announcement of a £1bn investment in its London Gateway container port, following criticism by members of Sir Keir Starmer's cabinet.

    Sky News understands the Dubai-based company's investment was due to be a centrepiece of Monday's event, which is intended to showcase Britain's appeal to investors and will be attended by the prime minister and Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

    DP World's investment in the port is now under review however, following criticism by Transport Secretary Louise Haigh and Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner of its subsidiary P&O Ferries.

    https://news.sky.com/story/blow-to-no-10s-investment-summit-as-port-giant-pulls-1bn-announcement-over-pando-row-13231876

    On the plus side Lou Haigh got likes and retweets on social media.

    Nice to see the grown ups are back in charge.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    Ah yes, I remember that convention. Greeting someone with a string of numbers. Quite odd if you think about it, given that the caller can soon tell if it's a wrong number by dint of who is on the other end of the line.
    I suppose it was that you had to say something - and if you said '5305' your caller would instantly know whether he had got the end of your number wrong or right. Saying "hello" and leaving your caller to deduce whether that was a voice he expected or not was slightly less helpful. And saying "hello Cookie speaking" was giving away too much information.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    Of course there are legit businesses (and dodgy ones that get popular), I go to a Turkish barber that has been about for 20+ years, that is staffed by Turks and is always rammed because it is well established. But that isn't what we are talking about, we are talking about where on a high street you all of a sudden get 4-5 of these open, they isn't anywhere near enough business for them and they are constantly empty.
    Busy ones are the easiest ones to hide money in though, you can quite quickly push in pretty big cash sums into a handful of already busy companies and you've got £10-12m going in across 6-8 busy shops, the silent directors draw the cleaned dividends and invest the money into legit enterprises.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    Foss said:

    Do we get robot lawyers as well? Because that might almost be worth it...
    more like - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0FmHXkWusM
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    Cookie said:

    I suppose it was that you had to say something - and if you said '5305' your caller would instantly know whether he had got the end of your number wrong or right. Saying "hello" and leaving your caller to deduce whether that was a voice he expected or not was slightly less helpful. And saying "hello Cookie speaking" was giving away too much information.
    Think of it as a handshake protocol with a checksum.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,468
    edited October 2024
    MaxPB said:

    Busy ones are the easiest ones to hide money in though, you can quite quickly push in pretty big cash sums into a handful of already busy companies and you've got £10-12m going in across 6-8 busy shops, the silent directors draw the cleaned dividends and invest the money into legit enterprises.
    Absolutely and I am sure that has been going on for years. But in past 4-5 years we have seen explosion of these cash businesses that everybody knows are 100% dodgy taking up rents on distressed high streets. I presume because there is no enforcement anywhere, its just a no brainer, £50k to open a shitty shop, put some fresh off the boat from Albanian to sit around and funnel through £100k's a year, rinse and repeat.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kenObi said:

    Car washes, nail bars may be full of modern slavery, illegal employment and tax evasion, but the idea that its meaningful money laundering is for the birds.

    The American Sweet shops in London, again aren't money laundering but tax evasion (business rates) and you'd have to suspect landlords (for it is they who would be liable if the shops are empty) turn a blind eye at best.

    474 Oxford Street (once a Vodafone shop) a couple of years ago had rates of £350k a year
    One dares not even mention 788–790 Finchley Road...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798
    DavidL said:

    Schools not out yet? A whole new generation hooked on nicotine.
    That street would be enough to supply tge habit of the whole of Greater Manchester.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,468
    edited October 2024

    One dares not even mention 788–790 Finchley Road...
    Shhhhhh...that's all the illuminati and shit bruv...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Of course there are legit businesses (and dodgy ones that get popular or using illegal bonded labour). I go to a Turkish barber that has been about for 20+ years, that is staffed by Turks and is always rammed because it is well established.

    But that isn't what we are talking about, we are talking about where on a high street you all of a sudden get 4-5 of these open, they isn't anywhere near enough business for them and they are constantly empty.
    I was necessarily saying they were all legit – just that they are popular with the womenfolk around here – see @MaxPB 's point above. Fast cash businesses like the beauty industry are perfect for laundering as you have said.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624
    MattW said:

    Interestingly mixed reply from the Transport Minister to a PQ on cycling for children. Pokes the dead Tory bear, and broadens it to include 'drivers'. We await detail.

    Wera Hobhouse
    “Road safety is one of the main reasons why young people do not cycle. This is particularly true for cities like Bath where historic infrastructure makes it very difficult. What will the government do to help young cyclists particularly to make it safer, and make roads safer in Bath?”


    Louise Haigh
    “I’m grateful to her for raising that point and it sits at the heart of our ambition to develop the new road safety strategy.”

    “The previous government pursued poisonous culture wars against road users of all descriptions. We are determined to take back streets for pedestrians, cyclists, and drivers. And that will be at the heart of our new ambition for the road safety strategy.”


    Video: https://x.com/Wera_Hobhouse/status/1844325754236014812

    Hobhouse is being disingenuous there - people don't cycle in Bath because its monstrous hilly. And besides, many, many do cycle here.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Cookie said:

    I suppose it was that you had to say something - and if you said '5305' your caller would instantly know whether he had got the end of your number wrong or right. Saying "hello" and leaving your caller to deduce whether that was a voice he expected or not was slightly less helpful. And saying "hello Cookie speaking" was giving away too much information.
    Hmm. I always wondered what proportion of callers even knew and remembered the number they had called. Presumably many, even most, immediately forgot it as soon as they entered it, hence the convention was useless as checking mechanism?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    edited October 2024
    Taz said:

    On the plus side Lou Haigh got likes and retweets on social media.

    Nice to see the grown ups are back in charge.
    lol. This government is quite spectacularly inept. It is like a bunch of retarded clowns - many of them missing limbs - trying to operate a power station
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Shhhhhh...that's all the illuminati and shit bruv...
    :D What happened to @hunchman – single-handedly responsible for making an otherwise nondescript part of northwest London infamous (for reasons that nobody could quote pin down)!
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 245
    MaxPB said:

    Yup, so stuffing an extra £20k per week in takings wouldn't be very difficult.
    So adding VAT to the cost of money laundering ?
    At this rate we are getting 50p back in the £


    You think that with the cracking of Encochat and the huge number of prosecutions in the last few years that the NCA just accept an extra £1m a year going through a nail bar.
    Or accept as legitimate American Candy 'profits' while they simultaneously defraund Westminster council of tens of millions a year.

    It's delusional

    If you want to know where the money goes, look at Southern Spain (historically), Rathkeale in Ireland for travellers, Dubai & UAE, Turkey and Montenegro for property and boats.

    Or Hawala banking and shunting gold about.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,512
    Tommy Vietor
    @TVietor08
    ·
    25m
    NYT on how Elon Musk is trying to buy the election for Trump:
    - Spending $140-180MM on Trump super PAC
    - Twitter coordinating with the Trump camp to throttle links to leaked campaign documents
    - Musk rallying other billionaires to support Trump
    - Musk temporarily moving to PA

    https://x.com/TVietor08/status/1844726236875997248
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624
    kinabalu said:

    Like this surely ...
    My parents also used to start with the name of the village and then the last 6 digits. No idea why, they just did.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    WTF with the bureaucracy to get an International Driving Permit. You need a PASSPORT PHOTO
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    As reported by Private Eye, the American Sweet shops are yes doing the tax evasion on business rates, fiddling VAT, but also alleged that they laundering money from places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran.
    What they do have advertised for sale is mostly not allowed to be imported to the UK in the first place.

    Trading Standards should have them all shut down within a week.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    kenObi said:

    So adding VAT to the cost of money laundering ?
    At this rate we are getting 50p back in the £


    You think that with the cracking of Encochat and the huge number of prosecutions in the last few years that the NCA just accept an extra £1m a year going through a nail bar.
    Or accept as legitimate American Candy 'profits' while they simultaneously defraund Westminster council of tens of millions a year.

    It's delusional

    If you want to know where the money goes, look at Southern Spain (historically), Rathkeale in Ireland for travellers, Dubai & UAE, Turkey and Montenegro for property and boats.

    Or Hawala banking and shunting gold about.
    Why do you think the government doesn't do anything to shut these businesses down? The treasury gets to keep 30-50% of the money.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,468
    edited October 2024
    I don't know if it was the robots or the humans (or even the Illuminati), but Amazon have lost my package....
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,413

    My parents also used to start with the name of the village and then the last 6 digits. No idea why, they just did.
    Before STD codes, exchanges were known by location. I worked in a London office where the phone number was Temple Bar xxxxx.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156

    Hmm. I always wondered what proportion of callers even knew and remembered the number they had called. Presumably many, even most, immediately forgot it as soon as they entered it, hence the convention was useless as checking mechanism?
    People used to be a lot better at remembering phone numbers when they weren't all stored in a phone, and when you had to turn the dial on a rotary phone to dial them.

    Nowadays people would struggle to remember their own - unless they've been regularly typing it into girls' phones they've just met.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,098

    Nowadays people would struggle to remember their own - unless they've been regularly typing it into girls' phones they've just met.

    Don't they just mate smartwatches now?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,468
    edited October 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    Don't they just mate smartwatches now?
    In Iceland, all the kids have an app that if they bump with somebody elses phone it tells them if they are too closely related to be doing any mating....
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    Hmm. I always wondered what proportion of callers even knew and remembered the number they had called. Presumably many, even most, immediately forgot it as soon as they entered it, hence the convention was useless as checking mechanism?
    I don't think that's right. People used to know other people's phone numbers. Hell, I can still remember the phone numbers of most of my friends' parents from school - or of the houses they lived in in the early 90s, at any rate, along with half a dozen other landlines from the Stockport area of the time. Whereas the number of current numbers I know is exactly four: my own, my wife's, my parents landline and, at a push, my own landline.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,472
    Afternoon all :)

    Round here, it's barber shop (not as in the quartets, "hello my baby, hello my honey, hello my ragtime gal").

    Now, let's be fair - you can keep your Babylon 5 references, only @stodge can bring Tin Pan Alley lyrics to a Friday afternoon.

    Anyway, the barber shops - all for men (there's a surprise) seem to proliferate replacing the betting shops, bakeries etc. At this rate East Ham will be destitute but the men will be well groomed.

  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    Cookie said:

    I don't think that's right. People used to know other people's phone numbers. Hell, I can still remember the phone numbers of most of my friends' parents from school - or of the houses they lived in in the early 90s, at any rate, along with half a dozen other landlines from the Stockport area of the time. Whereas the number of current numbers I know is exactly four: my own, my wife's, my parents landline and, at a push, my own landline.
    I still remember the number for my parents in law - the first 4 digits are still the code for most station gates on the ECML
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,468
    edited October 2024
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/11/inside-bbc-secret-plans-become-streaming-superpower-iplayer/

    I wonder how that will work given ITVX show ads and also has a subscription tier to get rid of them?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Tommy Vietor
    @TVietor08
    ·
    25m
    NYT on how Elon Musk is trying to buy the election for Trump:
    - Spending $140-180MM on Trump super PAC
    - Twitter coordinating with the Trump camp to throttle links to leaked campaign documents
    - Musk rallying other billionaires to support Trump
    - Musk temporarily moving to PA

    https://x.com/TVietor08/status/1844726236875997248

    Can you imagine the GOP furore if the situation was reversed. It always seems to be right wing nutjobs buying up media to try and force their world view onto others .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    edited October 2024
    Fabrizio, Lee and Associates

    Wisconsin Trump 48% Harris 48%

    Michigan Harris 49% Trump 47%

    Pennsylvania Trump 47% Harris 46%

    Georgia Harris 48% Trump 46%

    North Carolina Harris 47% Trump 47%

    Nevada Trump 49% Harris 43%

    Arizona Harris 48% Trump 46%
    https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-harris-swing-state-poll-october-2024-c3ca9414
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,259
    HYUFD said:

    Fabrizio, Lee and Associates

    Wisconsin Trump 48% Harris 48%

    Michigan Harris 49% Trump 47%

    Pennsylvania Trump 47% Harris 46%

    Georgia Harris 48% Trump 46%

    North Carolina Harris 47% Trump 47%

    Nevada Trump 49% Harris 43%

    Arizona Harris 48% Trump 46%
    https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-harris-swing-state-poll-october-2024-c3ca9414

    I'm beginning to not believe the state polls. Anybody remember UKGE2015, where everybody was convinced it'll be a tie and...it just wasn't? Or USMidterms2022, where everybody was convinced it'll be Trump wave and...it just wasn't? Or UKGE2024, where everybody was convinced there would be a massive Labour lead (in votes) and...it just wasn't?

    Somebody suggest something better than state polls for states. Next five minutes will be fine. Chop, chop. :smile:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited October 2024
    Cookie said:

    I don't think that's right. People used to know other people's phone numbers. Hell, I can still remember the phone numbers of most of my friends' parents from school - or of the houses they lived in in the early 90s, at any rate, along with half a dozen other landlines from the Stockport area of the time. Whereas the number of current numbers I know is exactly four: my own, my wife's, my parents landline and, at a push, my own landline.
    You have a landline? Weirdo!! :)
  • eek said:

    I still remember the number for my parents in law - the first 4 digits are still the code for most station gates on the ECML
    I must have been about seven when we got our first phone. I wonder what happens now if you ring Amherst 0806?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    edited October 2024
    nico679 said:

    Can you imagine the GOP furore if the situation was reversed. It always seems to be right wing nutjobs buying up media to try and force their world view onto others .
    It was reversed, previously. Facebook and Twitter conspired with the Biden admin to suppress the Lab Leak theory as it was deemed to benefit Trump. Zuckerberg has admitted this, and now regrets it

    "Mark Zuckerberg says White House ‘pressured’ Facebook to censor Covid-19 content

    Meta boss regrets bowing to government power and says he would not make the same choices today"

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/27/mark-zuckerberg-says-white-house-pressured-facebook-to-censor-covid-19-content

    "Zuckerberg also said that Facebook “temporarily demoted” a story about the contents of a laptop owned by Hunter Biden, the president’s son, after a warning from the FBI that Russia was preparing a disinformation campaign against the Bidens.

    Zuckerberg wrote that it has since become clear that the story was not disinformation, and “in retrospect, we shouldn’t have demoted the story”."
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Leon said:

    It was reversed, previously. Facebook and Twitter conspired with the Biden admin to suppress the Lab Leak theory as it was deemed to benefit Trump. Zuckerberg has admitted this, and now regrets it

    "Mark Zuckerberg says White House ‘pressured’ Facebook to censor Covid-19 content

    Meta boss regrets bowing to government power and says he would not make the same choices today"

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/27/mark-zuckerberg-says-white-house-pressured-facebook-to-censor-covid-19-content

    "Zuckerberg also said that Facebook “temporarily demoted” a story about the contents of a laptop owned by Hunter Biden, the president’s son, after a warning from the FBI that Russia was preparing a disinformation campaign against the Bidens.

    Zuckerberg wrote that it has since become clear that the story was not disinformation, and “in retrospect, we shouldn’t have demoted the story”."
    That’s small scale compared to what Musk is doing now .
  • You have a landline? Weirdo!! :)
    I know who the weirdo is here and it's not @Cookie

    Many millions of people still have landlines and just like cash you have such an intolerance and insulting attitude to anything that confronts your views


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,256

    I know who the weirdo is here and it's not @Cookie

    Many millions of people still have landlines and just like cash you have such an intolerance and insulting attitude to anything that confronts your views


    Rubbish!

    We are all weirdos here. Although some more than others.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,253

    I know who the weirdo is here and it's not @Cookie

    Many millions of people still have landlines and just like cash you have such an intolerance and insulting attitude to anything that confronts your views


    Under half of households at present, I believe (still millions, of course).

    We lost ours a couple of years back, formally (got a broadband contract where the telephone service was an optional extra, rather than bundled). We hadn't had a phone connected to it for several years before that, though.

    So, "weirdo" is unfair (and clearly not meant seriously) but we'd have to go with something like "non-conformist".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    viewcode said:

    I'm beginning to not believe the state polls. Anybody remember UKGE2015, where everybody was convinced it'll be a tie and...it just wasn't? Or USMidterms2022, where everybody was convinced it'll be Trump wave and...it just wasn't? Or UKGE2024, where everybody was convinced there would be a massive Labour lead (in votes) and...it just wasn't?

    Somebody suggest something better than state polls for states. Next five minutes will be fine. Chop, chop. :smile:
    Cameron was always well ahead on preferred PM in 2015 and would comfortably have won a presidential election on the polling.

    Labour to be fair did get a 10% lead on votes in 2024 too
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,617
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Round here, it's barber shop (not as in the quartets, "hello my baby, hello my honey, hello my ragtime gal").

    Now, let's be fair - you can keep your Babylon 5 references, only @stodge can bring Tin Pan Alley lyrics to a Friday afternoon.

    Anyway, the barber shops - all for men (there's a surprise) seem to proliferate replacing the betting shops, bakeries etc. At this rate East Ham will be destitute but the men will be well groomed.

    There's a niche business opportunity for armpit grooming for ladies of a Teutonic persuasion.

    (Awaits links ...)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I know who the weirdo is here and it's not @Cookie

    Many millions of people still have landlines and just like cash you have such an intolerance and insulting attitude to anything that confronts your views


    Oh give over, I was very obviously just pulling his leg.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,538

    Rubbish!

    We are all weirdos here. Although some more than others.
    I would wear the weirdo tag with pride, if it didn't allign me with J D Vance...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Selebian said:

    Under half of households at present, I believe (still millions, of course).

    We lost ours a couple of years back, formally (got a broadband contract where the telephone service was an optional extra, rather than bundled). We hadn't had a phone connected to it for several years before that, though.

    So, "weirdo" is unfair (and clearly not meant seriously) but we'd have to go with something like "non-conformist".
    Strictly speaking I myself have a landline as it is part of a cable TV/broadband bundle that is impossible to remove. I have had it for years, never had a handset plugged into it and don't know the number. I suspect there are many like me who are notionally on the records as landline owners but have never used the bloody thing. They are completely pointless.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,617
    edited October 2024
    DavidL said:

    The Asimov I Robot and Caves of Steel series in particular. Although I am not nearly as confident as Asimov was about being able to make the 3 laws of robotics central to the creation of AI:
    A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
    A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
    A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law
    Asimov was an atheist of the "Nuance: Not a Lot" variety; subtlety was not really a thing for him. In my mental sketch of him, his rather basic core principles tended to be a bit of a cage for him when he tried to speculate.

    Arthur C Clarke was imo altogether more interesting philosophically.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,259
    HYUFD said:

    Cameron was always well ahead on preferred PM in 2015 and would comfortably have won a presidential election on the polling.

    Labour to be fair did get a 10% lead on votes in 2024 too
    ...but the predicted Labour lead was 13-20%. :(
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,617

    You have a landline? Weirdo!! :)
    On PB, shouldn't that be wierdo? To rhyme with Kier, Doh !
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    nico679 said:

    That’s small scale compared to what Musk is doing now .
    Small scale? Suppressing the real origin of a pandemic which killed 20 million people and decimated the global economy and damaged billions of human lives?
  • Rubbish!

    We are all weirdos here. Although some more than others.
    Maybe deal with facts

    Just under 20.9 million households in UK have an active landline, 74% of all households
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,512
    They're blowing it big time...


    Keiran Pedley
    @keiranpedley

    New @IpsosUK Political Pulse makes difficult reading for Labour as eyes turn to the budget. Quick 🧵

    1/ When we look across the first '100 days' we can see a clear negative shift in favourability towards the Labour Party. Similar numbers to others now.

    https://ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-and-starmer-approval-ratings-continue-drop-government-nears-100-days-power
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,538
    MattW said:

    There's a niche business opportunity for armpit grooming for ladies of a Teutonic persuasion.

    (Awaits links ...)
    Please, no.

    The under-arm Euro-Growler was likely a major reason for Brexit. How could you lock yourselves into ever-closer union with people who do THAT?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    They're blowing it big time...


    Keiran Pedley
    @keiranpedley

    New @IpsosUK Political Pulse makes difficult reading for Labour as eyes turn to the budget. Quick 🧵

    1/ When we look across the first '100 days' we can see a clear negative shift in favourability towards the Labour Party. Similar numbers to others now.

    https://ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-and-starmer-approval-ratings-continue-drop-government-nears-100-days-power

    Absolutely dire, BJO being vindicated in real time.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    Strictly speaking I myself have a landline as it is part of a cable TV/broadband bundle that is impossible to remove. I have had it for years, never had a handset plugged into it and don't know the number. I suspect there are many like me who are notionally on the records as landline owners but have never used the bloody thing. They are completely pointless.
    Yes, me too. I know the number because I'm periodically required to provide it on forms for things, normally things where I interact with the public sector. But I don't use it. The handset doesn't work. Occasionally the cleaner* does something with it that makes it beep every ten minutes.

    *Can never really refer to having a cleaner without a flash of shame, even on an anonymous internet board.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    edited October 2024
    I think Reeves is going to be basically boxed in to an ultra-cautious budget, there's just not the room for tax increases without hitting the big money ones (Which Labour ruled out at the GE) and gilt market yields heading north are going to throttle any extra borrowing potential.
    Add in Labour's wheezes apparently not raising much money (VAT schools, Non doms). It's going to go down like a cup of cold sick whatever she does in all honesty.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Cookie said:

    Yes, me too. I know the number because I'm periodically required to provide it on forms for things, normally things where I interact with the public sector. But I don't use it. The handset doesn't work. Occasionally the cleaner* does something with it that makes it beep every ten minutes.

    *Can never really refer to having a cleaner without a flash of shame, even on an anonymous internet board.
    You can just put your mobile number in online forms for home phone, duplicating it as required.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,413

    Strictly speaking I myself have a landline as it is part of a cable TV/broadband bundle that is impossible to remove. I have had it for years, never had a handset plugged into it and don't know the number. I suspect there are many like me who are notionally on the records as landline owners but have never used the bloody thing. They are completely pointless.
    I have a landline as it's needed for the care alarm. Also useful as all mobile signals are very weak where I live.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    .

    Tommy Vietor
    @TVietor08
    ·
    25m
    NYT on how Elon Musk is trying to buy the election for Trump:
    - Spending $140-180MM on Trump super PAC
    - Twitter coordinating with the Trump camp to throttle links to leaked campaign documents
    - Musk rallying other billionaires to support Trump
    - Musk temporarily moving to PA

    https://x.com/TVietor08/status/1844726236875997248

    That was the point of the Supreme Court Citizens United decision - to remove limits on the extremely wealthy putting a very heavy thumb on the scales of democracy.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Maybe deal with facts

    Just under 20.9 million households in UK have an active landline, 74% of all households
    A better survey might ask: "Have you used a landline to make or receive a phone call from home in the last year?"

    It won't be 21 million yeses, I can assure you...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    You can just put your mobile number in online forms for home phone, duplicating it as required.
    I'm sure I've had online forms which requiremeto provide an 0161... number. Possibly the local leisure centre, or the council for a missed bin collection, or one of the kids' schools. I can remember it with a bit of thought, though obviously its a pointless detail because it doesn't work (though I recently unearthed YEARS of answering machine messages, including some potentially quite important, like being offered a job...)
    Anyway, I knew you were cheerfully pulling my leg!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,259
    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely dire, BJO being vindicated in real time.
    I thought before the election he was right. Ditto StatsForLefties. The latter's prediction was prescient.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Cookie said:

    I'm sure I've had online forms which requiremeto provide an 0161... number. Possibly the local leisure centre, or the council for a missed bin collection, or one of the kids' schools. I can remember it with a bit of thought, though obviously its a pointless detail because it doesn't work (though I recently unearthed YEARS of answering machine messages, including some potentially quite important, like being offered a job...)
    Anyway, I knew you were cheerfully pulling my leg!
    Nah, none of them require a landline in reality. You can just use your mobile number.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    MaxPB said:

    Busy ones are the easiest ones to hide money in though, you can quite quickly push in pretty big cash sums into a handful of already busy companies and you've got £10-12m going in across 6-8 busy shops, the silent directors draw the cleaned dividends and invest the money into legit enterprises.
    The amount some PBers know about money laundering is not reassuring.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    ....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    viewcode said:

    I thought before the election he was right. Ditto StatsForLefties. The latter's prediction was prescient.
    He was right in what way? That Sir Keir wasn't going to get a majority... oh.
  • A better survey might ask: "Have you used a landline to make or receive a phone call from home in the last year?"

    It won't be 21 million yeses, I can assure you...
    I do not have a problem with that and we have a digital BT landline but we never use it nor record it on forms

    It is purely there for emergency use and our son in Vancouver uses it to call us, as it is apparently cheap for him and of course we do not get charged for incoming calls
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    Sandpit said:

    What they do have advertised for sale is mostly not allowed to be imported to the UK in the first place.

    Trading Standards should have them all shut down within a week.
    But trading standards have near zero budgets to do anything afters years of austerity slashed local government funding.
This discussion has been closed.