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Spread betting on the White House race – politicalbetting.com

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  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    So Sue Gray will be missing from todays Regional Conference because she is "taking a break".

    Understandable I guess given her unceremonious dumping last week but it begs the question will she actually end up doing the role ?

    Anyone want to guess she quietly ends up there but in a non-exec role, turning up for a couple of meetings a month but still with the full £170k salary?
    It's only Taxpayers money.

    Trebles all round
    Did we ever get to the bottom of what exactly 1,160 people do at Ofgem, as mentioned yesterday?

    I’m rapidly becoming of the opinion that there needs to be a zero-based Budget, and that whole departments should be torn up and either rebuilt from scratch or their functions transferred elsewhere.
    I posted two recent activities by OfGem yesterday, helping consumers get refunds and smoothing some forthcoming technical transitions. You can see plenty more here: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/news-and-views/press-releases
    As against that, here is Ofgem's response when British Gas tried to swindle somebody out of £2,500:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnee9e22klno

    The energy regulator Ofgem said it expected suppliers to "act compassionately", adding it had toughened up rules for companies to follow when dealing with people who were struggling to pay bills.

    That is not merely pointless verbiage, it is also irrelevant. That is not what was happening. The individual had repeatedly been sent fraudulent bills and threats for money he did not owe. That's a crime.

    Any regulator that didn't fine the company concerned within an inch of its worthless life is a worthless regulator.

    I still do not have the final bills on my father's account more than 18 months after it was closed. Their licence requires them to be issued after 6 weeks. I still don't have the payment they have been ordered to make by a court on the subject. Ofgem do not care. I have received bribes paid into my personal account using details BG had been ordered to delete, to get me to overlook crimes they have committed. Ofgem have made it clear they do not want to know.

    They spend most of their time putting out the energy price gap, but choose to explain it to us in such vague and studied terms it's very difficult to know what it means. Moreover, they whack up the standing charge (which we all have to pay) while controlling the price per unit (which is manageable with a few adjustments). A bonkers reversal of what they should be doing.

    They are as much use as a hole in the head. They are very nearly as bad as Ofwat. Get rid, and good riddance.
    Sounds very much like the Energy Ombudsman's remit, this, but you'd think OfGem would point you that way, if so.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,362
    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    So Sue Gray will be missing from todays Regional Conference because she is "taking a break".

    Understandable I guess given her unceremonious dumping last week but it begs the question will she actually end up doing the role ?

    Anyone want to guess she quietly ends up there but in a non-exec role, turning up for a couple of meetings a month but still with the full £170k salary?
    It's only Taxpayers money.

    Trebles all round
    Did we ever get to the bottom of what exactly 1,160 people do at Ofgem, as mentioned yesterday?

    I’m rapidly becoming of the opinion that there needs to be a zero-based Budget, and that whole departments should be torn up and either rebuilt from scratch or their functions transferred elsewhere.
    I feel like we need a new department to look into the running of other departments and quangos/regulators. Maybe call it the 'Department of Administrative Affairs' :wink:

    I do agree, as noted elsewhere, that it's not obvious why we need a specific ombudsman (moving away from OfGem now) for each industry. It would appear to be more efficient to either roll it into a general complaints arbitrator across a range of industries or to have the regulators also enforce their rules in specific cases, rather than just issue fines for firms being consistently on the naughty step.
    I was in the lunch queue at a corporate event and was talking to a senior manager of the public sector organisation I work for. She has been growing her team, who generate no revenue and just consume resources, at the expense of other teams who do. She was yet again complaining to me that she doesn't have enough resources. I said to her it is not really ultimately a question of resources but actually a question of attitude, and she looked at me in amazement, as if it was an idea she had not encountered before.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    So Sue Gray will be missing from todays Regional Conference because she is "taking a break".

    Understandable I guess given her unceremonious dumping last week but it begs the question will she actually end up doing the role ?

    Anyone want to guess she quietly ends up there but in a non-exec role, turning up for a couple of meetings a month but still with the full £170k salary?
    It's only Taxpayers money.

    Trebles all round
    Did we ever get to the bottom of what exactly 1,160 people do at Ofgem, as mentioned yesterday?

    I’m rapidly becoming of the opinion that there needs to be a zero-based Budget, and that whole departments should be torn up and either rebuilt from scratch or their functions transferred elsewhere.
    Perhaps but as always it won’t be as simple as “no unintended consequences”. People do rely on Ofgem to deal with complaints against energy suppliers and simply getting rid of them will likely make that process slower or more difficult which will be another example of British state infrastructure or services grinding to a halt.
    Ofgem does not investigate complaints against energy suppliers, as I found when I tried to get them to look into these constant false bills from British Gas. They sent a email claiming - falsely - that although they could investigate under GDPR laws they could not notify me of the outcome of any such investigation. What they really meant was, they had no intention of investigating.

    This is why energy companies can get away with what they do. Heck, even when it did investigate and found they were all keeping people waiting deliberately for an hour on the phone to force them to give up, it only put them all on 'notice to improve.' Which, I might add, they haven't.

    It is an utter waste of time and money. Put the energy firms under Trading Standards and things would change rapidly.

    When it comes to investigations of complaints, the Ombudsman does that, although again the energy companies make it as difficult as possible to refer them.
    https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/press-release/ovo-pay-ps237-million-customer-complaint-failures
    Show me a similar fine on British Gas for their repeated and blatantly wilful frauds and I'll concede your point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    So Sue Gray will be missing from todays Regional Conference because she is "taking a break".

    Understandable I guess given her unceremonious dumping last week but it begs the question will she actually end up doing the role ?

    Anyone want to guess she quietly ends up there but in a non-exec role, turning up for a couple of meetings a month but still with the full £170k salary?
    It's only Taxpayers money.

    Trebles all round
    Did we ever get to the bottom of what exactly 1,160 people do at Ofgem, as mentioned yesterday?

    I’m rapidly becoming of the opinion that there needs to be a zero-based Budget, and that whole departments should be torn up and either rebuilt from scratch or their functions transferred elsewhere.
    I posted two recent activities by OfGem yesterday, helping consumers get refunds and smoothing some forthcoming technical transitions. You can see plenty more here: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/news-and-views/press-releases
    As against that, here is Ofgem's response when British Gas tried to swindle somebody out of £2,500:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnee9e22klno

    The energy regulator Ofgem said it expected suppliers to "act compassionately", adding it had toughened up rules for companies to follow when dealing with people who were struggling to pay bills.

    That is not merely pointless verbiage, it is also irrelevant. That is not what was happening. The individual had repeatedly been sent fraudulent bills and threats for money he did not owe. That's a crime.

    Any regulator that didn't fine the company concerned within an inch of its worthless life is a worthless regulator.

    I still do not have the final bills on my father's account more than 18 months after it was closed. Their licence requires them to be issued after 6 weeks. I still don't have the payment they have been ordered to make by a court on the subject. Ofgem do not care. I have received bribes paid into my personal account using details BG had been ordered to delete, to get me to overlook crimes they have committed. Ofgem have made it clear they do not want to know.

    They spend most of their time putting out the energy price gap, but choose to explain it to us in such vague and studied terms it's very difficult to know what it means. Moreover, they whack up the standing charge (which we all have to pay) while controlling the price per unit (which is manageable with a few adjustments). A bonkers reversal of what they should be doing.

    They are as much use as a hole in the head. They are very nearly as bad as Ofwat. Get rid, and good riddance.
    Sounds very much like the Energy Ombudsman's remit, this, but you'd think OfGem would point you that way, if so.
    You don't understand. The Ombudsman had already ordered the issuing of the bills. British Gas have ignored them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,487
    Nigelb said:

    Any guesses who said this ?

    "Now, I'm gonna make it real -- very quick it's gonna go. But to bring it to that level I guess I'll need a little more time but I won't have that time but I'm gonna have, I'm gonna hand it over to people. We're gonna make this country so strong."

    How’s about this?

    “So, I think it’s very important, as you have heard from so many incredible leaders, for us at every moment in time - and certainly this one - to see the moment in time in which we exist and are present, and to be able to contextualize it, to understand where we exist in the history and in the moment as it relates not only to the past but the future“
  • I’m off to Germany and on a totally unrelated point

    Naked lesbian nuns, sex and mutilation – hardcore opera that made German theatre-goers ill

    Audience members suffer nausea with 18 needing medical treatment after seeing performance that offended Catholics with its shocking imagery


    More than a dozen theatre-goers in Germany needed medical treatment after viewing a radical feminist opera which features naked nuns on rollerskates, a lascivious depiction of Jesus Christ and the grilling of human flesh.

    The “Sancta” opera, which has an age restriction of over-18s and numerous content warnings about sex and mutilation, proved to be too intense for some audience members at the Stuttgart opera house.

    According to the Stuttgarter Zeitung, a local newspaper, a total of 18 audience members came down with nausea, requiring first aid and even a doctor in some cases, while viewing the show.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/10/opera-naked-lesbian-nuns-sex-mutilation-germany/
  • PJHPJH Posts: 639
    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is every day sexism/misandry..

    Carol Vorderman: Starmer accepting free clothes would be understandable if he was a woman

    The Left-wing activist added that it was a ‘rookie error’ for the PM to accept £2,400 from Lord Alli to pay for glasses


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/10/carol-voderman-keir-starmer-free-glasses-woman-lord-alli/

    Presumably when Miss Vorderman was on TV 100 episodes at a time and never in the safe outfit twice, she had a rich friend lend a credit card to run down Kensington High St, and never used a wardrobe service to lend her 100 dresses billed to the production?
    Have you gone Leon on us ?
    Why do I always notice the typo about six minutes and 30 seconds after the post, and then why does someone always spot it?
    Only when it's mildly amusing.
    F*** no! When autocorrect inserts a rogue apostrophe the sky falls in on the poster.
    That's why I cut folk slack over its/it's these days. Butcher's, not so much.
    I repeatedly mix their and there up when posting even though I fully understand the difference. I don't know why. And the number of times I miss 'not' out of a post and post the complete opposite of what I want is frustrating (Did it yesterday).
    My phone always autoincorrects well to we'll and out to put, but never corrects obvious typos like ypu instead of you.

    I usually use the laptop even for WhatsApp as I find the phone so frustrating to use.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284

    25 days to bonfire night aka the American election.

    With the Proud Boys ensuring electoral order in knife-edge wards it should be free and fair.
  • Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is every day sexism/misandry..

    Carol Vorderman: Starmer accepting free clothes would be understandable if he was a woman

    The Left-wing activist added that it was a ‘rookie error’ for the PM to accept £2,400 from Lord Alli to pay for glasses


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/10/carol-voderman-keir-starmer-free-glasses-woman-lord-alli/

    Presumably when Miss Vorderman was on TV 100 episodes at a time and never in the safe outfit twice, she had a rich friend lend a credit card to run down Kensington High St, and never used a wardrobe service to lend her 100 dresses billed to the production?
    Have you gone Leon on us ?
    Why do I always notice the typo about six minutes and 30 seconds after the post, and then why does someone always spot it?
    Only when it's mildly amusing.
    Yes the problem with autocorrect is that it doesn’t just leave the typo, it almost always leaves a valid word in place of it, which can often make the problem worse! It would be better if the browser worked like a word processor, and left a red line under a word it didn’t recognise.
    Aha, time to give this a runout.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewziegler/autocorrect-fails-of-the-decade
    Some crackers on there.

    As for autocorrect one I found funny was someone message a friend who said they would meet them later after they had been out for a wank. Of course they meant walk. They'd wank inside you'd like to think.
    About 20 years ago I sent my Mum a text saying.

    ‘I’ll be coming home tonight’

    However autocorrect turned it in to

    ‘I’ll be coming good tonight’

    So my Mum replied with

    ‘What do you mean you’ll be coming good tonight?’

    I still have PTSD with that.
    Perhaps she thought/hoped all the time, money and care invested in your upbringing might be coming to fruition. Just think of it that way, better for your PTSD..
    It is just better for me to act like it never happened.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    edited October 11
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Any guesses who said this ?

    "Now, I'm gonna make it real -- very quick it's gonna go. But to bring it to that level I guess I'll need a little more time but I won't have that time but I'm gonna have, I'm gonna hand it over to people. We're gonna make this country so strong."

    How’s about this?

    “So, I think it’s very important, as you have heard from so many incredible leaders, for us at every moment in time - and certainly this one - to see the moment in time in which we exist and are present, and to be able to contextualize it, to understand where we exist in the history and in the moment as it relates not only to the past but the future“
    Dunno, but it's too coherent for Trump and maybe for Biden too. Harris? Clinton? Obama probably spoke a bit better.

    ETA: Googled now, Harris it was. So? It's typical fairly meaningless burble, presumably at some public event. But at least it doesn't sound like she was drunk or stoned. Harris seems pretty mediocre, to be frank but, well, perfectly acceptable under the circumstances :wink:
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,553
    Joe Root and Alastair Cook both reached 10k test run at the age of 31 years 157 days:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_players_who_have_scored_10,000_or_more_runs_in_Test_cricket
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    nico679 said:

    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    Sometimes you do really need to look at cross tabs .

    A quite extraordinary weighting from reg voters to likely voters occurs in the TIPP insights which had Harris 4 points up in Pennsylvania.

    After the weighting to likely voters Trump leads by 1 point .

    The Philadelphia reg vote went from being 134 respondents to 12 in likely voters !

    Her original margin in that county went from beating Trump 55 points to just 20 points !

    I’m becoming increasingly sceptical of the US polling. It’s in everyone’s interest to show it as a close race in the last few weeks, and I suspect that political organisations are commissioning several polls and then publishing only the one most favourable to their party or candidate.
    Agreed . There’s just too many biased polls , most of which come from GOP supporting companies . A lot depends on whether this election behaves like 2020 or 2022 .
    I think it’s right to have a healthy dose of scepticism with the state polling particularly. It hasn’t been particularly accurate in the last couple of elections (or even before that, IIRC, but I haven’t checked) and there’s just too many unknowns.

    Minor shifts each way don’t feel to me to be very illustrative. As a whole the only thing I’m taking from them is it’s going to be very close (which, duh, we’ve known would be the case for months).

    It comes down to turnout and enthusiasm. On the Harris side, we’ve got good approval ratings and healthy downballot races. On the Trump side we’ve got cost of living pressures and immigration.

    I see a Harris win as slightly more likely at this stage but it’s only slight.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,487
    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Any guesses who said this ?

    "Now, I'm gonna make it real -- very quick it's gonna go. But to bring it to that level I guess I'll need a little more time but I won't have that time but I'm gonna have, I'm gonna hand it over to people. We're gonna make this country so strong."

    How’s about this?

    “So, I think it’s very important, as you have heard from so many incredible leaders, for us at every moment in time - and certainly this one - to see the moment in time in which we exist and are present, and to be able to contextualize it, to understand where we exist in the history and in the moment as it relates not only to the past but the future“
    Dunno, but it's too coherent for Trump and maybe for Biden too. Harris? Clinton? Obama probably spoke a bit better.
    Nigel’s one is Trump and mine is Harris, neither exactly famous for speaking in sentences. Both are probably a lot better when spoken, rather than written down.

    Obama was a very good speaker, as was Bill Clinton. Biden wasn’t too bad when he was younger, but it’s sad to see him age so much in public.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    edited October 11
    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Any guesses who said this ?

    "Now, I'm gonna make it real -- very quick it's gonna go. But to bring it to that level I guess I'll need a little more time but I won't have that time but I'm gonna have, I'm gonna hand it over to people. We're gonna make this country so strong."

    How’s about this?

    “So, I think it’s very important, as you have heard from so many incredible leaders, for us at every moment in time - and certainly this one - to see the moment in time in which we exist and are present, and to be able to contextualize it, to understand where we exist in the history and in the moment as it relates not only to the past but the future“
    Dunno, but it's too coherent for Trump and maybe for Biden too. Harris? Clinton? Obama probably spoke a bit better.
    Nigel’s one is Trump and mine is Harris, neither exactly famous for speaking in sentences. Both are probably a lot better when spoken, rather than written down.

    Obama was a very good speaker, as was Bill Clinton. Biden wasn’t too bad when he was younger, but it’s sad to see him age so much in public.
    Yeah, sorry, I meant Hilary. Didn't think about Bill - he was also more polished (maybe Hilary was too, I don't really remember her unscripted speaking).

    And yes, Biden probably better too, back in the day.

    ETA: Nigel's was obviously Trump - or at least, I'd have been surprised if it wasn't. Whatever else you can say about him, he has a unique style!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,617
    edited October 11
    I think the reverse, if Trump wins it will be a big win in the Electoral College as he did in 2016. If Harris wins though it will be a narrow win in the Electoral College, for while she is polling worse than Biden did in 2020 in the rustbelt and Arizona she is polling better than Hillary was in 2016 in states like Georgia and North Carolina
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,465

    nico679 said:

    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    Sometimes you do really need to look at cross tabs .

    A quite extraordinary weighting from reg voters to likely voters occurs in the TIPP insights which had Harris 4 points up in Pennsylvania.

    After the weighting to likely voters Trump leads by 1 point .

    The Philadelphia reg vote went from being 134 respondents to 12 in likely voters !

    Her original margin in that county went from beating Trump 55 points to just 20 points !

    I’m becoming increasingly sceptical of the US polling. It’s in everyone’s interest to show it as a close race in the last few weeks, and I suspect that political organisations are commissioning several polls and then publishing only the one most favourable to their party or candidate.
    Agreed . There’s just too many biased polls , most of which come from GOP supporting companies . A lot depends on whether this election behaves like 2020 or 2022 .
    I think it’s right to have a healthy dose of scepticism with the state polling particularly. It hasn’t been particularly accurate in the last couple of elections (or even before that, IIRC, but I haven’t checked) and there’s just too many unknowns.

    Minor shifts each way don’t feel to me to be very illustrative. As a whole the only thing I’m taking from them is it’s going to be very close (which, duh, we’ve known would be the case for months).

    It comes down to turnout and enthusiasm. On the Harris side, we’ve got good approval ratings and healthy downballot races. On the Trump side we’ve got cost of living pressures and immigration.

    I see a Harris win as slightly more likely at this stage but it’s only slight.
    Harris has enthused women voters (helped by Republicans weaponising their health). The huge flaw in US polling is reliance on previous vote. Harris likely brings a significant cohort of young or previously unregistered women voters with her who are not appearing in these polls.

    And in one of the pro-Trump Pennsylvania polls, the cross-tabs had Trump getting 46% of African-Americans.

    Yeah, right...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    Ministers to consider scrapping short jail terms
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgx01wyprzo

    I find it interesting again that Timpson is basically invisible from this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,847
    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Sometimes you do really need to look at cross tabs .

    A quite extraordinary weighting from reg voters to likely voters occurs in the TIPP insights which had Harris 4 points up in Pennsylvania.

    After the weighting to likely voters Trump leads by 1 point .

    The Philadelphia reg vote went from being 134 respondents to 12 in likely voters !

    Her original margin in that county went from beating Trump 55 points to just 20 points !

    All that means, though, is that the pollster doesn't weight for likely voters. Trying then to reweight the poll is statistically dodgy; best simply to asterisk it.
    But they did weight , they had several screener questions. And those in Philadelphia were 75% likely to vote .
    The point stands, though
    You can't reweight subsamples to draw a different conclusion - if you do that, you're completely screwing any chance of the sample being representative. You can just asterisk the poll, and question its validity.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    darkage said:

    I was reading some comments on this website about crime in London, muggings etc. You can now see the crime reports at road level. There is obviously violence, theft and anti-social behaviour, a few reports a month in 'hotspots'; typically around council estates. However I am not persuaded 'things are getting worse' when compared with accounts of the 1980's/1990's when anti social behaviour was not even defined as a crime. The accounts in Iain Sinclairs books of his period house in Hackney being perpetually burgled come to mind and the dystopia of living in a new build in Hackney Wick enclosed by a motorway in the pre regeneration days. I just don't think this is something that still goes on.

    London was a far more dangerous place to live in the 1980s/ 90s than it is now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,847

    Nigelb said:

    Any guesses who said this ?

    "Now, I'm gonna make it real -- very quick it's gonna go. But to bring it to that level I guess I'll need a little more time but I won't have that time but I'm gonna have, I'm gonna hand it over to people. We're gonna make this country so strong."

    "I have more complaints on grocery. The word grocery. You know, it's sorta simple word, but it sorta means like everything you eat. The stomach is speaking. It always does. And, uh, I have more complaints about that. Bacon and things going up."
    Sounds like a severe case of gastric reflux.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,487
    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Any guesses who said this ?

    "Now, I'm gonna make it real -- very quick it's gonna go. But to bring it to that level I guess I'll need a little more time but I won't have that time but I'm gonna have, I'm gonna hand it over to people. We're gonna make this country so strong."

    How’s about this?

    “So, I think it’s very important, as you have heard from so many incredible leaders, for us at every moment in time - and certainly this one - to see the moment in time in which we exist and are present, and to be able to contextualize it, to understand where we exist in the history and in the moment as it relates not only to the past but the future“
    Dunno, but it's too coherent for Trump and maybe for Biden too. Harris? Clinton? Obama probably spoke a bit better.
    Nigel’s one is Trump and mine is Harris, neither exactly famous for speaking in sentences. Both are probably a lot better when spoken, rather than written down.

    Obama was a very good speaker, as was Bill Clinton. Biden wasn’t too bad when he was younger, but it’s sad to see him age so much in public.
    Yeah, sorry, I meant Hilary. Didn't think about Bill - he was also more polished (maybe Hilary was too, I don't really remember her unscripted speaking).

    And yes, Biden probably better too, back in the day.

    ETA: Nigel's was obviously Trump - or at least, I'd have been surprised if it wasn't. Whatever else you can say about him, he has a unique style!
    Hillary was okay as a speaker, but like Kamala she was always more comfortable when reading a speech than in interviews or going off-script. Last week Hillary did an interview where she said that it if social media companies don’t aggressively censor content then “we lose total control”. Whoops. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/10/06/hillary_clinton_if_social_media_platforms_dont_have_to_moderate_content_we_lose_total_control.html

    Trump’s quotes always look a lot worse when written down than when spoken. He rambles as if talking to himself but it usually comes across as funny on video.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937
    @IGcom

    Tesla stock drops more than 6% all-sessions on IG platform as the market reacts to the #Robotaxi event

    $TSLA

    https://x.com/IGcom/status/1844655560718971048
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,465
    HYUFD said:

    I think the reverse, if Trump wins it will be a big win in the Electoral College as he did in 2016. If Harris wins though it will be a narrow win in the Electoral College, for while she is polling worse than Biden did in 2020 in the rustbelt and Arizona she is polling better than Hillary was in 2016 in states like Georgia and North Carolina

    Polling in the US is to bolster the bread and circuses entertainment value. It is not about accurate assessment of the voters' intentions. It's to reinforce the narrative of "Oooooh - look how close it is! Keep watching...."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,487
    edited October 11

    darkage said:

    I was reading some comments on this website about crime in London, muggings etc. You can now see the crime reports at road level. There is obviously violence, theft and anti-social behaviour, a few reports a month in 'hotspots'; typically around council estates. However I am not persuaded 'things are getting worse' when compared with accounts of the 1980's/1990's when anti social behaviour was not even defined as a crime. The accounts in Iain Sinclairs books of his period house in Hackney being perpetually burgled come to mind and the dystopia of living in a new build in Hackney Wick enclosed by a motorway in the pre regeneration days. I just don't think this is something that still goes on.

    London was a far more dangerous place to live in the 1980s/ 90s than it is now.
    The difference now is that regular people and business are the target of crime, rather than it being confined to certain areas.

    When the gangs stop fighting each other over drugs, and start stealing phones and watches on the nice streets, and aggressively shoplifting, then regular people start to notice.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    nico679 said:

    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    Sometimes you do really need to look at cross tabs .

    A quite extraordinary weighting from reg voters to likely voters occurs in the TIPP insights which had Harris 4 points up in Pennsylvania.

    After the weighting to likely voters Trump leads by 1 point .

    The Philadelphia reg vote went from being 134 respondents to 12 in likely voters !

    Her original margin in that county went from beating Trump 55 points to just 20 points !

    I’m becoming increasingly sceptical of the US polling. It’s in everyone’s interest to show it as a close race in the last few weeks, and I suspect that political organisations are commissioning several polls and then publishing only the one most favourable to their party or candidate.
    Agreed . There’s just too many biased polls , most of which come from GOP supporting companies . A lot depends on whether this election behaves like 2020 or 2022 .
    I think it’s right to have a healthy dose of scepticism with the state polling particularly. It hasn’t been particularly accurate in the last couple of elections (or even before that, IIRC, but I haven’t checked) and there’s just too many unknowns.

    Minor shifts each way don’t feel to me to be very illustrative. As a whole the only thing I’m taking from them is it’s going to be very close (which, duh, we’ve known would be the case for months).

    It comes down to turnout and enthusiasm. On the Harris side, we’ve got good approval ratings and healthy downballot races. On the Trump side we’ve got cost of living pressures and immigration.

    I see a Harris win as slightly more likely at this stage but it’s only slight.
    Harris has enthused women voters (helped by Republicans weaponising their health). The huge flaw in US polling is reliance on previous vote. Harris likely brings a significant cohort of young or previously unregistered women voters with her who are not appearing in these polls.

    And in one of the pro-Trump Pennsylvania polls, the cross-tabs had Trump getting 46% of African-Americans.

    Yeah, right...
    Being convicted of sexual assault doesn't seem to me a way of improving your appeal to women voters.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    Bookmakers have the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, who died in an Arctic penal colony in February, as one of the favourites to win this year’s award, but that cannot happen because no one can receive the prize posthumously.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/oct/11/nobel-peace-prize-2024-winner-live-updates

    Seems a bit of a flaw in the T&Cs, somebody giving their life for a cause can't get it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,955

    Ministers to consider scrapping short jail terms
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgx01wyprzo

    I find it interesting again that Timpson is basically invisible from this.

    At a random guess - he isn't sufficiently plugged into the Whitehall machine or the Labour party machine.

    In addition, being an outsider with actual, practical and proven experience in the domain, his ideas are probably unacceptable to the system.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    edited October 11
    Morning all :)

    Not sure if this has been quoted but there's a Techne poll out this morning in the Independent:

    Labour 29% (-2)
    Conservative 24% (+1)
    Reform 19% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats 12% (nc)
    Greens 7% (nc)
    Others 9% (nc)

    Again, not much movement and a mixed bag from last night's local council by-elections with good and bad news for all parties in all honesty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,617

    I’m off to Germany and on a totally unrelated point

    Naked lesbian nuns, sex and mutilation – hardcore opera that made German theatre-goers ill

    Audience members suffer nausea with 18 needing medical treatment after seeing performance that offended Catholics with its shocking imagery


    More than a dozen theatre-goers in Germany needed medical treatment after viewing a radical feminist opera which features naked nuns on rollerskates, a lascivious depiction of Jesus Christ and the grilling of human flesh.

    The “Sancta” opera, which has an age restriction of over-18s and numerous content warnings about sex and mutilation, proved to be too intense for some audience members at the Stuttgart opera house.

    According to the Stuttgarter Zeitung, a local newspaper, a total of 18 audience members came down with nausea, requiring first aid and even a doctor in some cases, while viewing the show.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/10/opera-naked-lesbian-nuns-sex-mutilation-germany/

    An opera of little artistic merit just made to shock. They certainly wouldn't do it with Muhammad as the playwright and cast would have to go into hiding.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    I was reading some comments on this website about crime in London, muggings etc. You can now see the crime reports at road level. There is obviously violence, theft and anti-social behaviour, a few reports a month in 'hotspots'; typically around council estates. However I am not persuaded 'things are getting worse' when compared with accounts of the 1980's/1990's when anti social behaviour was not even defined as a crime. The accounts in Iain Sinclairs books of his period house in Hackney being perpetually burgled come to mind and the dystopia of living in a new build in Hackney Wick enclosed by a motorway in the pre regeneration days. I just don't think this is something that still goes on.

    London was a far more dangerous place to live in the 1980s/ 90s than it is now.
    The difference now is that regular people and business are the target of crime, rather than it being confined to certain areas.

    When the gangs stop fighting each other over drugs, and start stealing phones and watches on the nice streets, and aggressively shoplifting, then regular people start to notice.
    Yes, so crime still happens in London. But the transformation of areas like Bermondsey, Southwark, Hackney, Brixton, Kings X is just extraordinary. No way would you have wanted to be out and about in those places after dark in the 1980s.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    edited October 11

    Ministers to consider scrapping short jail terms
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgx01wyprzo

    I find it interesting again that Timpson is basically invisible from this.

    At a random guess - he isn't sufficiently plugged into the Whitehall machine or the Labour party machine.

    In addition, being an outsider with actual, practical and proven experience in the domain, his ideas are probably unacceptable to the system.
    I don't know what is going. Perhaps he is just happy working away in the background. The government made such a big deal about convincing him to join them, but it seems whenever the government have something to say on this topic, he is the invisible man or somebody else is being given the job.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722

    Ministers to consider scrapping short jail terms
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgx01wyprzo

    I find it interesting again that Timpson is basically invisible from this.

    They'd do better investigating why sentences are so much longer than they used to be.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 466
    Taz said:

    Italians furious at Israeli "intentional" targetting of their bases in Lebanon

    "After speaking with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant and the Israeli ambassador to Italy earlier in the day, Crosetto reiterated that the Italian government does not believe the justification that the attack was a mistake or an accident. Italy therefore demands “real explanations as quickly as possible.”

    As Ansa reported, UNIFIL's interpretation of the Israeli attack on the UN mission's bases, according to senior security sources familiar with the Middle East dossier, is that it was aimed at "forcing its withdrawal" to avoid having "unwanted witnesses" to Tel Aviv's military "future plans" in Lebanon."


    https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/italy-strongly-condemns-israeli-strikes-in-lebanon-targeting-italian-bases/

    One excellent reason, among several, to vote for Harris over the Trumpdozer is that the Republicans are far more likely to allow Israel a free hand in the middle east to do what they want and fuck the consequences. As can be seen from Mike Pompeo's recent comments on Social Media.

    After you've driven out / killed the journalists, medics, and humanitarian aid workers then what you're left with is the UN peacekeepers
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,847
    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Any guesses who said this ?

    "Now, I'm gonna make it real -- very quick it's gonna go. But to bring it to that level I guess I'll need a little more time but I won't have that time but I'm gonna have, I'm gonna hand it over to people. We're gonna make this country so strong."

    How’s about this?

    “So, I think it’s very important, as you have heard from so many incredible leaders, for us at every moment in time - and certainly this one - to see the moment in time in which we exist and are present, and to be able to contextualize it, to understand where we exist in the history and in the moment as it relates not only to the past but the future“
    Dunno, but it's too coherent for Trump and maybe for Biden too. Harris? Clinton? Obama probably spoke a bit better.
    Nigel’s one is Trump and mine is Harris, neither exactly famous for speaking in sentences. Both are probably a lot better when spoken, rather than written down..
    Sure.
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1844450445739123123
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    darkage said:

    I was reading some comments on this website about crime in London, muggings etc. You can now see the crime reports at road level. There is obviously violence, theft and anti-social behaviour, a few reports a month in 'hotspots'; typically around council estates. However I am not persuaded 'things are getting worse' when compared with accounts of the 1980's/1990's when anti social behaviour was not even defined as a crime. The accounts in Iain Sinclairs books of his period house in Hackney being perpetually burgled come to mind and the dystopia of living in a new build in Hackney Wick enclosed by a motorway in the pre regeneration days. I just don't think this is something that still goes on.

    Yes, broadly.

    The correlation between crime and drugs is absolutely clear. Mrs Stodge attends the Neighbourhood Watch meeting in our part of Newham and the local sergeant who attends says they know when a new drug den has opened when the levels of petty crime in the surrounding streets spike. This is usually thefts from cars, mobile phone theft, pickpocketing, rarely anything violent.

    The main locus of this anti-social crime is the High Street (as you might expect) where there is unfortunately a lot of pickpocketing, dipping (going into people's bags to take wallets or phones) and shoplifting. The local tradespeople are understandably angry and frustrated and the Greggs has moved all its sandwiches out of the front of the shop while the larger stores such as Lidl and Poundland employ security staff though what they can actually do I'm not sure.

    I've lived in London most of my life (so far). You learn rudiments of personal security and awareness. The one thing you don't do is walk down the street waving your Iphone 16 to all and sundry.

    Petty crime will I suspect always exist - there will always be people bad enough or desperate enough to steal. I do think the drug culture is a big part of it but this is another of those issues which defies simplistic solutions.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    nico679 said:

    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    Sometimes you do really need to look at cross tabs .

    A quite extraordinary weighting from reg voters to likely voters occurs in the TIPP insights which had Harris 4 points up in Pennsylvania.

    After the weighting to likely voters Trump leads by 1 point .

    The Philadelphia reg vote went from being 134 respondents to 12 in likely voters !

    Her original margin in that county went from beating Trump 55 points to just 20 points !

    I’m becoming increasingly sceptical of the US polling. It’s in everyone’s interest to show it as a close race in the last few weeks, and I suspect that political organisations are commissioning several polls and then publishing only the one most favourable to their party or candidate.
    Agreed . There’s just too many biased polls , most of which come from GOP supporting companies . A lot depends on whether this election behaves like 2020 or 2022 .
    I think it’s right to have a healthy dose of scepticism with the state polling particularly. It hasn’t been particularly accurate in the last couple of elections (or even before that, IIRC, but I haven’t checked) and there’s just too many unknowns.

    Minor shifts each way don’t feel to me to be very illustrative. As a whole the only thing I’m taking from them is it’s going to be very close (which, duh, we’ve known would be the case for months).

    It comes down to turnout and enthusiasm. On the Harris side, we’ve got good approval ratings and healthy downballot races. On the Trump side we’ve got cost of living pressures and immigration.

    I see a Harris win as slightly more likely at this stage but it’s only slight.
    Harris has enthused women voters (helped by Republicans weaponising their health). The huge flaw in US polling is reliance on previous vote. Harris likely brings a significant cohort of young or previously unregistered women voters with her who are not appearing in these polls.

    And in one of the pro-Trump Pennsylvania polls, the cross-tabs had Trump getting 46% of African-Americans.

    Yeah, right...
    I agree - the key thing here though is getting those voters to the polls. I think that helps her in Nevada and Arizona as I believe these are the states with referendums on the abortion topic.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,487

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    I was reading some comments on this website about crime in London, muggings etc. You can now see the crime reports at road level. There is obviously violence, theft and anti-social behaviour, a few reports a month in 'hotspots'; typically around council estates. However I am not persuaded 'things are getting worse' when compared with accounts of the 1980's/1990's when anti social behaviour was not even defined as a crime. The accounts in Iain Sinclairs books of his period house in Hackney being perpetually burgled come to mind and the dystopia of living in a new build in Hackney Wick enclosed by a motorway in the pre regeneration days. I just don't think this is something that still goes on.

    London was a far more dangerous place to live in the 1980s/ 90s than it is now.
    The difference now is that regular people and business are the target of crime, rather than it being confined to certain areas.

    When the gangs stop fighting each other over drugs, and start stealing phones and watches on the nice streets, and aggressively shoplifting, then regular people start to notice.
    Yes, so crime still happens in London. But the transformation of areas like Bermondsey, Southwark, Hackney, Brixton, Kings X is just extraordinary. No way would you have wanted to be out and about in those places after dark in the 1980s.
    Yes there were a lot of no-go areas in the ‘90s when I first started going to London. Always arrive at KX on the Tube was one rule I remember, because outside the station was not a nice place.

    I had a job for a couple of days in Brixton in around 2003, and the customer (a pub) insisted I left by 7pm rather than staying until the end of the night as was scheduled. Not sure what it’s like now, as I haven’t been back there since!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,617

    Ministers to consider scrapping short jail terms
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgx01wyprzo

    I find it interesting again that Timpson is basically invisible from this.

    Gauke it seems may lead on this with Timpson focused on expanding community sentences
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    edited October 11
    MaxPB said:

    Someone in I know in the energy industry was at drinks last night and he seems wholly unimpressed with the GB Energy scheme. He said it looks and sounds like a rehash of PFI with projects being build by the private sector and then purchased over 30-50 year periods by the state. What is it with Labour and PFI, they absolutely torched the finances last time with huge current spending required to fund all of these schemes and they just don't seem to have learned any lessons from it.

    Some of us have been saying this for ages. The whole sovereign growth fund is just massive centralises PFI, it isn't as some might think from the name Norway or Saudi style wealth fund.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    I was reading some comments on this website about crime in London, muggings etc. You can now see the crime reports at road level. There is obviously violence, theft and anti-social behaviour, a few reports a month in 'hotspots'; typically around council estates. However I am not persuaded 'things are getting worse' when compared with accounts of the 1980's/1990's when anti social behaviour was not even defined as a crime. The accounts in Iain Sinclairs books of his period house in Hackney being perpetually burgled come to mind and the dystopia of living in a new build in Hackney Wick enclosed by a motorway in the pre regeneration days. I just don't think this is something that still goes on.

    London was a far more dangerous place to live in the 1980s/ 90s than it is now.
    The difference now is that regular people and business are the target of crime, rather than it being confined to certain areas.

    When the gangs stop fighting each other over drugs, and start stealing phones and watches on the nice streets, and aggressively shoplifting, then regular people start to notice.
    Yes and that happens now in Newham and people do notice and when Stephen Timms attended the Neighbourhood Watch meeting also attended by Mrs Stodge, the meeting made sure he was aware as well.

    As to whether East Ham has "nice" streets, that's a different matter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,617
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Not sure if this has been quoted but there's a Techne poll out this morning in the Independent:

    Labour 29% (-2)
    Conservative 24% (+1)
    Reform 19% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats 12% (nc)
    Greens 7% (nc)
    Others 9% (nc)

    Again, not much movement and a mixed bag from last night's local council by-elections with good and bad news for all parties in all honesty.

    Main swing from the general election again Labour to Reform
  • PJH said:

    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is every day sexism/misandry..

    Carol Vorderman: Starmer accepting free clothes would be understandable if he was a woman

    The Left-wing activist added that it was a ‘rookie error’ for the PM to accept £2,400 from Lord Alli to pay for glasses


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/10/carol-voderman-keir-starmer-free-glasses-woman-lord-alli/

    Presumably when Miss Vorderman was on TV 100 episodes at a time and never in the safe outfit twice, she had a rich friend lend a credit card to run down Kensington High St, and never used a wardrobe service to lend her 100 dresses billed to the production?
    Have you gone Leon on us ?
    Why do I always notice the typo about six minutes and 30 seconds after the post, and then why does someone always spot it?
    Only when it's mildly amusing.
    F*** no! When autocorrect inserts a rogue apostrophe the sky falls in on the poster.
    That's why I cut folk slack over its/it's these days. Butcher's, not so much.
    I repeatedly mix their and there up when posting even though I fully understand the difference. I don't know why. And the number of times I miss 'not' out of a post and post the complete opposite of what I want is frustrating (Did it yesterday).
    My phone always autoincorrects well to we'll and out to put, but never corrects obvious typos like ypu instead of you.

    I usually use the laptop even for WhatsApp as I find the phone so frustrating to use.
    I think they may be reducing the utility of autocorrect in the short term to upsell AI enabled kit in the longer term
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    Robert Jenrick has insisted he would not backtrack on his policy positions and return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground if he becomes leader.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,617
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    So Sue Gray will be missing from todays Regional Conference because she is "taking a break".

    Understandable I guess given her unceremonious dumping last week but it begs the question will she actually end up doing the role ?

    Anyone want to guess she quietly ends up there but in a non-exec role, turning up for a couple of meetings a month but still with the full £170k salary?
    It's only Taxpayers money.

    Trebles all round
    Did we ever get to the bottom of what exactly 1,160 people do at Ofgem, as mentioned yesterday?

    I’m rapidly becoming of the opinion that there needs to be a zero-based Budget, and that whole departments should be torn up and either rebuilt from scratch or their functions transferred elsewhere.
    Perhaps but as always it won’t be as simple as “no unintended consequences”. People do rely on Ofgem to deal with complaints against energy suppliers and simply getting rid of them will likely make that process slower or more difficult which will be another example of British state infrastructure or services grinding to a halt.
    Ofgem does not investigate complaints against energy suppliers, as I found when I tried to get them to look into these constant false bills from British Gas. They sent a email claiming - falsely - that although they could investigate under GDPR laws they could not notify me of the outcome of any such investigation. What they really meant was, they had no intention of investigating.

    This is why energy companies can get away with what they do. Heck, even when it did investigate and found they were all keeping people waiting deliberately for an hour on the phone to force them to give up, it only put them all on 'notice to improve.' Which, I might add, they haven't.

    It is an utter waste of time and money. Put the energy firms under Trading Standards and things would change rapidly.

    When it comes to investigations of complaints, the Ombudsman does that, although again the energy companies make it as difficult as possible to refer them.
    Trading Standards is just an arm of local government
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,174

    Robert Jenrick has insisted he would not backtrack on his policy positions and return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground if he becomes leader.

    Do you believe him?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,487

    MaxPB said:

    Someone in I know in the energy industry was at drinks last night and he seems wholly unimpressed with the GB Energy scheme. He said it looks and sounds like a rehash of PFI with projects being build by the private sector and then purchased over 30-50 year periods by the state. What is it with Labour and PFI, they absolutely torched the finances last time with huge current spending required to fund all of these schemes and they just don't seem to have learned any lessons from it.

    Some of us have been saying this for ages. The whole sovereign growth fund is just massive centralises PFI, it isn't as some might think from the name Norway or Saudi style wealth fund.
    Hasn’t pretty much every country with serious O&G revenues not ring-fenced the taxes, except for the UK and US?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,847
    MaxPB said:

    Someone in I know in the energy industry was at drinks last night and he seems wholly unimpressed with the GB Energy scheme. He said it looks and sounds like a rehash of PFI with projects being build by the private sector and then purchased over 30-50 year periods by the state. What is it with Labour and PFI, they absolutely torched the finances last time with huge current spending required to fund all of these schemes and they just don't seem to have learned any lessons from it.

    That is disturbing.
    It would have been far better just to insist on the state having a percentage stake in (for example) the wind farms being financed. At least then some of the profits would stay in the UK economy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/10/green-energy-firms-promise-more-than-24bn-of-private-investment-in-britian
    ..The single largest investment set out ahead of the investment meeting was by the owner of Scottish Power, Spain’s Iberdrola, which has promised to double its planned investments in the UK’s clean energy ambitions to reach £24bn over the next four years.

    Europe’s largest electricity company set out plans last year to invest £12bn in the UK before 2028 to rewire Britain’s ageing power grids, and build new renewable energy projects. But on Thursday it added a further £12bn to the investment plan over the same period after winning a government contract to build a new multibillion-pound offshore windfarm and agreeing to buy Electricity North West for just over £4bn...


    On balance these investments are probably good for the country - but it would be far better for the UK if a lot more of the capital being invested (and profits flowing from that investment) stayed in the UK.

    As it is, we're going to spend £20 odd billion on subsidising a scheme to make fossil fuels more expensive (carbon capture). That is effectively burning the money.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    edited October 11

    Robert Jenrick has insisted he would not backtrack on his policy positions and return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground if he becomes leader.

    Do you believe him?
    Are you suggesting he might be doing a Starmer? Play to the home team during the leadership election then spend 4 years moving to the centre? Is Bobby J smart enough to pull that off?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Not sure if this has been quoted but there's a Techne poll out this morning in the Independent:

    Labour 29% (-2)
    Conservative 24% (+1)
    Reform 19% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats 12% (nc)
    Greens 7% (nc)
    Others 9% (nc)

    Again, not much movement and a mixed bag from last night's local council by-elections with good and bad news for all parties in all honesty.

    Main swing from the general election again Labour to Reform
    Yes, about 5% overall and last night's results suggested Reform can pick up votes (though not as yet seats) in areas where there is less activity.

    Some good results for the Conservatives overnight but some less good - at the moment, it seems whoever can get the anti-Labour vote on their side can squeeze the votes of other parties as well.

    I have to say some better Conservative performances in Surrey though holding Addlestone and winning Hersham Village is hardly a sign of a party set to regain 10 Downing Street but it's better than going backwards.

    It may well be defending County Council seats won't be as bad as might have been the case but the fact remains where the Conservatives are now compared with where they were in 2021 suggests there will be losses but we're a long way from May (the month, not the former Prime Minister).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,617

    Taz said:

    Congratulations @JohnO

    Yup.

    First Tory gain from the Lib Dems since the election IIRC.

    Clearly it was our lunch last week wot won it.
    Yes well done JohnO on your by election gain from the LDs.

    It seems that where the Liberal Democrats now control the council as in Elmbridge the Tories can now start to make some gains from them locally on a protest vote
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,847
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Someone in I know in the energy industry was at drinks last night and he seems wholly unimpressed with the GB Energy scheme. He said it looks and sounds like a rehash of PFI with projects being build by the private sector and then purchased over 30-50 year periods by the state. What is it with Labour and PFI, they absolutely torched the finances last time with huge current spending required to fund all of these schemes and they just don't seem to have learned any lessons from it.

    Some of us have been saying this for ages. The whole sovereign growth fund is just massive centralises PFI, it isn't as some might think from the name Norway or Saudi style wealth fund.
    Hasn’t pretty much every country with serious O&G revenues not ring-fenced the taxes, except for the UK and US?
    Another legacy of Mrs. T.
    As I keep reminding PB, many of our long term policy mistakes, and more intractable problems, have their genesis in the 1980s.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    I’m off to Germany and on a totally unrelated point

    Naked lesbian nuns, sex and mutilation – hardcore opera that made German theatre-goers ill

    Audience members suffer nausea with 18 needing medical treatment after seeing performance that offended Catholics with its shocking imagery


    More than a dozen theatre-goers in Germany needed medical treatment after viewing a radical feminist opera which features naked nuns on rollerskates, a lascivious depiction of Jesus Christ and the grilling of human flesh.

    The “Sancta” opera, which has an age restriction of over-18s and numerous content warnings about sex and mutilation, proved to be too intense for some audience members at the Stuttgart opera house.

    According to the Stuttgarter Zeitung, a local newspaper, a total of 18 audience members came down with nausea, requiring first aid and even a doctor in some cases, while viewing the show.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/10/opera-naked-lesbian-nuns-sex-mutilation-germany/

    You can't buy publicity like that. Bet it's now booked out for weeks.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    edited October 11
    I wouldn't get too excited yet, the ONS says the broader trend is still a slowing economy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937

    Robert Jenrick has insisted he would not backtrack on his policy positions and return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground if he becomes leader.

    Punctuation is important

    That sentence suggests he would not return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground

    Is that the intent?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,190
    MaxPB said:

    Someone in I know in the energy industry was at drinks last night and he seems wholly unimpressed with the GB Energy scheme. He said it looks and sounds like a rehash of PFI with projects being build by the private sector and then purchased over 30-50 year periods by the state. What is it with Labour and PFI, they absolutely torched the finances last time with huge current spending required to fund all of these schemes and they just don't seem to have learned any lessons from it.

    Splurge money now and it's future governments which face the consequences.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    Scott_xP said:

    Robert Jenrick has insisted he would not backtrack on his policy positions and return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground if he becomes leader.

    Punctuation is important

    That sentence suggests he would not return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground

    Is that the intent?
    "I won’t return Tories to the centre, insists Jenrick"
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Economy growing.

    Leading the polls by 5pts despite doing unpopular (but necessary) stuff.

    Parliamentary majority of 158.


    Sir Keir should enjoy his Friday night dinner.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,465

    Economy growing.

    Leading the polls by 5pts despite doing unpopular (but necessary) stuff.

    Parliamentary majority of 158.


    Sir Keir should enjoy his Friday night dinner.

    A mile wide, and an inch deep - that ice is cracking...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,465
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Congratulations @JohnO

    Yup.

    First Tory gain from the Lib Dems since the election IIRC.

    Clearly it was our lunch last week wot won it.
    Yes well done JohnO on your by election gain from the LDs.

    It seems that where the Liberal Democrats now control the council as in Elmbridge the Tories can now start to make some gains from them locally on a protest vote
    The new party leader should make JohnO the head of the LibDem take-down effort!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    I wouldn't get too excited yet, the ONS says the broader trend is still a slowing economy.
    Stop talking Britain down! :D

    Good numbers on manufacturing too. Let's hope Rachel puts some good pro-growth policies in her budget, like fixing cliff-edges in the income tax system.

    The production sector – which includes manufacturing – returned to growth with a rise in output of 0.5%, after a fall of 0.7% in July. Construction activity also rebounded from a fall of 0.4% a month earlier with an expansion of the same rate in August.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Economy growing.

    Leading the polls by 5pts despite doing unpopular (but necessary) stuff.

    Parliamentary majority of 158.


    Sir Keir should enjoy his Friday night dinner.

    A mile wide, and an inch deep - that ice is cracking...
    Great to see the economy returning to growth under Rachel!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,571

    Economy growing.

    Leading the polls by 5pts despite doing unpopular (but necessary) stuff.

    Parliamentary majority of 158.


    Sir Keir should enjoy his Friday night dinner.

    A mile wide, and an inch deep - that ice is cracking...
    Great to see the economy returning to growth under Rachel!
    That majority is a bit lower than when he started the 100 day march into government.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,174

    Robert Jenrick has insisted he would not backtrack on his policy positions and return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground if he becomes leader.

    Do you believe him?
    Are you suggesting he might be doing a Starmer? Play to the home team during the leadership election then spend 4 years moving to the centre? Is Bobby J smart enough to pull that off?
    I think he'd sell his own granny for another whiff of power. Whereas Badenoch is, for better or worse, more like Corbyn, saying what they believe and have believed since their late teenagerdom.

    The problem with Jenrick is much more about the tawdry way he does politics. And that will be much harder for him to fix, and would catapult Starmer back to being Mr Relatively Clean.

    (Whoever wins will have a somewhat freer hand if the fifteen percent threshold is doubled. Though it does mean that a VONC, once called, is much more likely to succeed.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,487
    edited October 11
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Someone in I know in the energy industry was at drinks last night and he seems wholly unimpressed with the GB Energy scheme. He said it looks and sounds like a rehash of PFI with projects being build by the private sector and then purchased over 30-50 year periods by the state. What is it with Labour and PFI, they absolutely torched the finances last time with huge current spending required to fund all of these schemes and they just don't seem to have learned any lessons from it.

    That is disturbing.
    It would have been far better just to insist on the state having a percentage stake in (for example) the wind farms being financed. At least then some of the profits would stay in the UK economy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/10/green-energy-firms-promise-more-than-24bn-of-private-investment-in-britian
    ..The single largest investment set out ahead of the investment meeting was by the owner of Scottish Power, Spain’s Iberdrola, which has promised to double its planned investments in the UK’s clean energy ambitions to reach £24bn over the next four years.

    Europe’s largest electricity company set out plans last year to invest £12bn in the UK before 2028 to rewire Britain’s ageing power grids, and build new renewable energy projects. But on Thursday it added a further £12bn to the investment plan over the same period after winning a government contract to build a new multibillion-pound offshore windfarm and agreeing to buy Electricity North West for just over £4bn...


    On balance these investments are probably good for the country - but it would be far better for the UK if a lot more of the capital being invested (and profits flowing from that investment) stayed in the UK.

    As it is, we're going to spend £20 odd billion on subsidising a scheme to make fossil fuels more expensive (carbon capture). That is effectively burning the money.
    Don’t worry, once CGT goes up to 40% there will be no more FDI, and only Brits will want to invest in British infrastructure. The State might have little choice but to fund Ed Miliband’s dreams.

    How that works with the balance of payments deficit is anyone’s guess, but Ms Reeves knows best!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Economy growing.

    Leading the polls by 5pts despite doing unpopular (but necessary) stuff.

    Parliamentary majority of 158.


    Sir Keir should enjoy his Friday night dinner.

    A mile wide, and an inch deep - that ice is cracking...
    Great to see the economy returning to growth under Rachel!
    That majority is a bit lower than when he started the 100 day march into government.
    He'll just have to grub along with a majority of 158.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,571
    Scott_xP said:

    Robert Jenrick has insisted he would not backtrack on his policy positions and return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground if he becomes leader.

    Punctuation is important

    That sentence suggests he would not return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground

    Is that the intent?
    "nor" is an underrated word these days.

    I suspect he is not telling the truth and he is planning a Starmer once elected thanks to rightwing membership. But no way of knowing.

    He wont be leader by next GE anyway frankly.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited October 11

    Robert Jenrick has insisted he would not backtrack on his policy positions and return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground if he becomes leader.

    Do you believe him?
    Are you suggesting he might be doing a Starmer? Play to the home team during the leadership election then spend 4 years moving to the centre? Is Bobby J smart enough to pull that off?
    I think he'd sell his own granny for another whiff of power. Whereas Badenoch is, for better or worse, more like Corbyn, saying what they believe and have believed since their late teenagerdom.

    The problem with Jenrick is much more about the tawdry way he does politics. And that will be much harder for him to fix, and would catapult Starmer back to being Mr Relatively Clean.

    (Whoever wins will have a somewhat freer hand if the fifteen percent threshold is doubled. Though it does mean that a VONC, once called, is much more likely to succeed.)
    Is the plan to make it 30%? That's still only 34 MPs ––– fewer than voted for Gentleman Jim in the final round...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Congratulations @JohnO

    Yup.

    First Tory gain from the Lib Dems since the election IIRC.

    Clearly it was our lunch last week wot won it.
    Yes well done JohnO on your by election gain from the LDs.

    It seems that where the Liberal Democrats now control the council as in Elmbridge the Tories can now start to make some gains from them locally on a protest vote
    Yes, well done, @JohnO.

    Last night's results were a mixed bag overall but that was a decent result for the Conservatives without question.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,036

    Scott_xP said:

    Robert Jenrick has insisted he would not backtrack on his policy positions and return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground if he becomes leader.

    Punctuation is important

    That sentence suggests he would not return the Conservative Party to the political centre ground

    Is that the intent?
    "I won’t return Tories to the centre, insists Jenrick"
    Well saying anything else would kill his chances.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,211

    I’m off to Germany and on a totally unrelated point

    Naked lesbian nuns, sex and mutilation – hardcore opera that made German theatre-goers ill

    Audience members suffer nausea with 18 needing medical treatment after seeing performance that offended Catholics with its shocking imagery


    More than a dozen theatre-goers in Germany needed medical treatment after viewing a radical feminist opera which features naked nuns on rollerskates, a lascivious depiction of Jesus Christ and the grilling of human flesh.

    The “Sancta” opera, which has an age restriction of over-18s and numerous content warnings about sex and mutilation, proved to be too intense for some audience members at the Stuttgart opera house.

    According to the Stuttgarter Zeitung, a local newspaper, a total of 18 audience members came down with nausea, requiring first aid and even a doctor in some cases, while viewing the show.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/10/opera-naked-lesbian-nuns-sex-mutilation-germany/

    You could pen a similar entertainment about the nuns of Godstow Abbey and their infatuation with fair Rosamund Clifford. The Bishop of Lincoln enters in the final act and every boos as he puts a stop to it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    Iran 🇮🇷 suspects that the IRGC officer who interrogated Esmail Qaani (Head of IRGC Quds Forces) on suspicion of being an Israeli 🇮🇱 agent, and caused him to suffer a heart attack, is the real Israeli agent. He is now being interrogated by another IRGC officer.

    https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1844525865310326964
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937
    @GdnPolitics

    Robert Jenrick makes pitch to Tory centre with Cleverly frontbench offer
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,937

    Iran 🇮🇷 suspects that the IRGC officer who interrogated Esmail Qaani (Head of IRGC Quds Forces) on suspicion of being an Israeli 🇮🇱 agent, and caused him to suffer a heart attack, is the real Israeli agent. He is now being interrogated by another IRGC officer.

    https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1844525865310326964

    inserts jpg of spidermen pointing at each other
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    Scott_xP said:

    Iran 🇮🇷 suspects that the IRGC officer who interrogated Esmail Qaani (Head of IRGC Quds Forces) on suspicion of being an Israeli 🇮🇱 agent, and caused him to suffer a heart attack, is the real Israeli agent. He is now being interrogated by another IRGC officer.

    https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1844525865310326964

    inserts jpg of spidermen pointing at each other
    Sure WebP is the better format for spidermen? :wink:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722
    edited October 11

    MaxPB said:

    Someone in I know in the energy industry was at drinks last night and he seems wholly unimpressed with the GB Energy scheme. He said it looks and sounds like a rehash of PFI with projects being build by the private sector and then purchased over 30-50 year periods by the state. What is it with Labour and PFI, they absolutely torched the finances last time with huge current spending required to fund all of these schemes and they just don't seem to have learned any lessons from it.

    Some of us have been saying this for ages. The whole sovereign growth fund is just massive centralises PFI, it isn't as some might think from the name Norway or Saudi style wealth fund.
    There has been some talk of changing the accounting rules to include state assets, so that if Keir spends £1 billion on nationalising British Spectacles, there will be an asset worth £1 billion recorded, and not just the amount spent. This was proposed some years back in the Corbyn/McDonnell years.

    ETA it is ironically the left that looks at these things. It was Ken Livingstone who fought Gordon Brown's PFI, for instance, noting that government could raise money far more cheaply than the private sector (these were the days before zero interest rates and QE).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Scott_xP said:

    @GdnPolitics

    Robert Jenrick makes pitch to Tory centre with Cleverly frontbench offer

    Cleverly would be wise to tell him to get effed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    MaxPB said:

    Someone in I know in the energy industry was at drinks last night and he seems wholly unimpressed with the GB Energy scheme. He said it looks and sounds like a rehash of PFI with projects being build by the private sector and then purchased over 30-50 year periods by the state. What is it with Labour and PFI, they absolutely torched the finances last time with huge current spending required to fund all of these schemes and they just don't seem to have learned any lessons from it.

    Some of us have been saying this for ages. The whole sovereign growth fund is just massive centralises PFI, it isn't as some might think from the name Norway or Saudi style wealth fund.
    There has been some talk of changing the accounting rules to include state assets, so that if Keir spends £1 billion on nationalising British Spectacles, there will be an asset worth £1 billion recorded, and not just the amount spent. This was proposed some years back in the Corbyn/McDonnell years.
    Instinctively, that seems right. Any other organisation has assets and liabilities. Schools and hospitals etc are capital assets – they should be recorded as such. (Full disclosure, I only learned yesterday that they weren't).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,150
    I see the publicity shy Paddy Power f***** up royally last night. Feeding racist trolls on Twitter is not a good look.


  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722

    Scott_xP said:

    @GdnPolitics

    Robert Jenrick makes pitch to Tory centre with Cleverly frontbench offer

    Cleverly would be wise to tell him to get effed.
    No. Whoever wins, Cleverly needs to stay in the game to have another chance next time.

    As we saw with Labour, the successor to Jeremy Corbyn wasn't any of the highflyers who refused to serve in the shadow cabinet, it was the previously almost-unknown shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,074
    edited October 11
    Reeves has left this budget far too long. The last chancellor that left it as long as Reeves is doing (When a complete change of Gov't takes place) was Barber.

    2010 GE 6 May, budget 22 June
    1997 GE May 2, budget 2 July
    1979 GE May 3, budget 12 June
    1974 GEs Feb & October, budgets March, July & November !
    1970 GE June, budget March 1971
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,680
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Someone in I know in the energy industry was at drinks last night and he seems wholly unimpressed with the GB Energy scheme. He said it looks and sounds like a rehash of PFI with projects being build by the private sector and then purchased over 30-50 year periods by the state. What is it with Labour and PFI, they absolutely torched the finances last time with huge current spending required to fund all of these schemes and they just don't seem to have learned any lessons from it.

    That is disturbing.
    It would have been far better just to insist on the state having a percentage stake in (for example) the wind farms being financed. At least then some of the profits would stay in the UK economy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/10/green-energy-firms-promise-more-than-24bn-of-private-investment-in-britian
    ..The single largest investment set out ahead of the investment meeting was by the owner of Scottish Power, Spain’s Iberdrola, which has promised to double its planned investments in the UK’s clean energy ambitions to reach £24bn over the next four years.

    Europe’s largest electricity company set out plans last year to invest £12bn in the UK before 2028 to rewire Britain’s ageing power grids, and build new renewable energy projects. But on Thursday it added a further £12bn to the investment plan over the same period after winning a government contract to build a new multibillion-pound offshore windfarm and agreeing to buy Electricity North West for just over £4bn...


    On balance these investments are probably good for the country - but it would be far better for the UK if a lot more of the capital being invested (and profits flowing from that investment) stayed in the UK.

    As it is, we're going to spend £20 odd billion on subsidising a scheme to make fossil fuels more expensive (carbon capture). That is effectively burning the money.
    I'm given to understand that the carbon capture scheme will also be PFI so not only are we burning money, we're going to spend 30-50 years doing it.

    Ed Miliband is going to bankrupt this country while not actually generating enough energy to keep the lights on. He is the most dangerous minister in the government and Starmer should axe him asap.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,174
    Scott_xP said:

    @GdnPolitics

    Robert Jenrick makes pitch to Tory centre with Cleverly frontbench offer

    Given the shortage of warm bodies in the Parliamentary Conservative Party, let alone semi-capable warm bodies, it's not much of an offer.

    Rule out the callow, the exhausted, the gaga and the pointedly choosing a different path, there aren't many left.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited October 11
    Pulpstar said:

    Reeves has left this budget far too long. The last chancellor that left it as long as Reeves is doing (When a complete change of Gov't takes place) was Barber.

    2010 GE 6 May, budget 22 June
    1997 GE May 2, budget 2 July
    1979 GE May 3, budget 12 June
    1974 GEs Feb & October, budgets March, July & November !
    1970 GE June, budget March 1971

    Well parliament was in recess for 2-3 months immediately after the election. She could hardly do it in the summer, or in conference season.

    To a great degree, she was bound by the election date.

    (And she'll now be happy that she waited – because she gets to do it against a backdrop of growth in the economy)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Someone in I know in the energy industry was at drinks last night and he seems wholly unimpressed with the GB Energy scheme. He said it looks and sounds like a rehash of PFI with projects being build by the private sector and then purchased over 30-50 year periods by the state. What is it with Labour and PFI, they absolutely torched the finances last time with huge current spending required to fund all of these schemes and they just don't seem to have learned any lessons from it.

    That is disturbing.
    It would have been far better just to insist on the state having a percentage stake in (for example) the wind farms being financed. At least then some of the profits would stay in the UK economy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/10/green-energy-firms-promise-more-than-24bn-of-private-investment-in-britian
    ..The single largest investment set out ahead of the investment meeting was by the owner of Scottish Power, Spain’s Iberdrola, which has promised to double its planned investments in the UK’s clean energy ambitions to reach £24bn over the next four years.

    Europe’s largest electricity company set out plans last year to invest £12bn in the UK before 2028 to rewire Britain’s ageing power grids, and build new renewable energy projects. But on Thursday it added a further £12bn to the investment plan over the same period after winning a government contract to build a new multibillion-pound offshore windfarm and agreeing to buy Electricity North West for just over £4bn...


    On balance these investments are probably good for the country - but it would be far better for the UK if a lot more of the capital being invested (and profits flowing from that investment) stayed in the UK.

    As it is, we're going to spend £20 odd billion on subsidising a scheme to make fossil fuels more expensive (carbon capture). That is effectively burning the money.
    I'm given to understand that the carbon capture scheme will also be PFI so not only are we burning money, we're going to spend 30-50 years doing it.

    Ed Miliband is going to bankrupt this country while not actually generating enough energy to keep the lights on. He is the most dangerous minister in the government and Starmer should axe him asap.
    Otoh Ed Miliband is the only minister doing anything whatsoever and might be a good bet if Starmer falls under the Downing Street bus. But only in the next few weeks as this will soon change once Reeves delivers the budget, and Angela Rayner's measures kick in.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,847
    nico679 said:

    Sometimes you do really need to look at cross tabs .

    A quite extraordinary weighting from reg voters to likely voters occurs in the TIPP insights which had Harris 4 points up in Pennsylvania.

    After the weighting to likely voters Trump leads by 1 point .

    The Philadelphia reg vote went from being 134 respondents to 12 in likely voters !

    Her original margin in that county went from beating Trump 55 points to just 20 points !

    Had another look into that.
    It seems that they were simply not being entirely honest about the LV totals in Philadelphia.

    Oh, and they DID ask the RV screen how likely they were to vote. And Philly was pretty close to the other regions. Out of 124 RVs in Philly, 93 were "very likely" to vote and 23 were "somewhat likely" to vote. Where does "12" come from?
    https://x.com/AstorAaron/status/1844489873056821724

    So perhaps not just very screwy poll, but an actively manipulated one ?

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Someone in I know in the energy industry was at drinks last night and he seems wholly unimpressed with the GB Energy scheme. He said it looks and sounds like a rehash of PFI with projects being build by the private sector and then purchased over 30-50 year periods by the state. What is it with Labour and PFI, they absolutely torched the finances last time with huge current spending required to fund all of these schemes and they just don't seem to have learned any lessons from it.

    That is disturbing.
    It would have been far better just to insist on the state having a percentage stake in (for example) the wind farms being financed. At least then some of the profits would stay in the UK economy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/10/green-energy-firms-promise-more-than-24bn-of-private-investment-in-britian
    ..The single largest investment set out ahead of the investment meeting was by the owner of Scottish Power, Spain’s Iberdrola, which has promised to double its planned investments in the UK’s clean energy ambitions to reach £24bn over the next four years.

    Europe’s largest electricity company set out plans last year to invest £12bn in the UK before 2028 to rewire Britain’s ageing power grids, and build new renewable energy projects. But on Thursday it added a further £12bn to the investment plan over the same period after winning a government contract to build a new multibillion-pound offshore windfarm and agreeing to buy Electricity North West for just over £4bn...


    On balance these investments are probably good for the country - but it would be far better for the UK if a lot more of the capital being invested (and profits flowing from that investment) stayed in the UK.

    As it is, we're going to spend £20 odd billion on subsidising a scheme to make fossil fuels more expensive (carbon capture). That is effectively burning the money.
    Yes, Germany for instance has government stakes in a range of its national champions. Ownership does not have to be, and probably should not be, all public or all private, especially now the private owners are often unlisted PE or foreign state outfits.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,680

    Pulpstar said:

    Reeves has left this budget far too long. The last chancellor that left it as long as Reeves is doing (When a complete change of Gov't takes place) was Barber.

    2010 GE 6 May, budget 22 June
    1997 GE May 2, budget 2 July
    1979 GE May 3, budget 12 June
    1974 GEs Feb & October, budgets March, July & November !
    1970 GE June, budget March 1971

    Well parliament was sin recess for 2-3 months immediately after the election. She could hardly do it in the summer, or in conference season.

    To a great degree, she was bound by the election date.

    (And she'll now be happy that she waited – because she gets to do it against a backdrop of growth in the economy)
    The growth rate has slowed from a 2.5% annualised rate before the election to a 1% annualised rate today, the consensus is that Labour are directly responsible for the slowdown with the overly negative rhetoric. It's not a very happy backdrop of growth, more a technical one.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Pulpstar said:

    Reeves has left this budget far too long. The last chancellor that left it as long as Reeves is doing (When a complete change of Gov't takes place) was Barber.

    2010 GE 6 May, budget 22 June
    1997 GE May 2, budget 2 July
    1979 GE May 3, budget 12 June
    1974 GEs Feb & October, budgets March, July & November !
    1970 GE June, budget March 1971

    Isn't there a requirement for the OBR to be involved and that added another 6-8 weeks to the timing?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,487
    Trump’s internal polling says that he’s winning all seven swing States.

    https://x.com/carolineglick/status/1844583361223807395

    Only 1% up in PA, NC, and WI though.

    As discussed ad nauseum earlier, it’s in everyone’s interest to say that it’s all within the margin of error.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,074
    Another interesting* thing about the Reeves budget is noone has quite worked out exactly who and how is going to be pumped for cash that noone is entirely sure is going to be raised for what.

    It's either austerity 2 (3 ?.0)
    Some hideous tax increase noone** wants, needs or has thought of
    Mortgagegedon as the markets hike gilt rates.


    ** OK One of the Telegraph's kite flying exercises will have been proved to be right

    Those are her only choices !
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Reeves has left this budget far too long. The last chancellor that left it as long as Reeves is doing (When a complete change of Gov't takes place) was Barber.

    2010 GE 6 May, budget 22 June
    1997 GE May 2, budget 2 July
    1979 GE May 3, budget 12 June
    1974 GEs Feb & October, budgets March, July & November !
    1970 GE June, budget March 1971

    Well parliament was sin recess for 2-3 months immediately after the election. She could hardly do it in the summer, or in conference season.

    To a great degree, she was bound by the election date.

    (And she'll now be happy that she waited – because she gets to do it against a backdrop of growth in the economy)
    The growth rate has slowed from a 2.5% annualised rate before the election to a 1% annualised rate today, the consensus is that Labour are directly responsible for the slowdown with the overly negative rhetoric. It's not a very happy backdrop of growth, more a technical one.
    'the consensus'... hmm. I suspect Rachel will be happy with the technicality of... the economy actually returning to growth, rather than chit-chat.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,680
    Also very interesting to see that the CGT abolishment is being walked back with now a rise to 33% on residential property transactions and 25% on other gain being the limit of what is seen as possible. I think reality might be hitting Reeves very hard in the face right now with the extent to which taxes can rise without behaviour change among wealthy individuals that are being targeted for the extra taxes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    MaxPB said:

    Also very interesting to see that the CGT abolishment is being walked back with now a rise to 33% on residential property transactions and 25% on other gain being the limit of what is seen as possible. I think reality might be hitting Reeves very hard in the face right now with the extent to which taxes can rise without behaviour change among wealthy individuals that are being targeted for the extra taxes.

    Hmm. Lots of ideas are floated and discussed before every budget of every political stripe. Let's wait for the statement.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,767
    edited October 11
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Congratulations @JohnO

    Yup.

    First Tory gain from the Lib Dems since the election IIRC.

    Clearly it was our lunch last week wot won it.
    Yes well done JohnO on your by election gain from the LDs.

    It seems that where the Liberal Democrats now control the council as in Elmbridge the Tories can now start to make some gains from them locally on a protest vote
    Yes I congratulated @JohnO at some unearthly hour this morning (through gritted teeth) and if we going to have Tory councillors it is nice to have someone with a cracking sense of humour and with which I agree on a lot of things.

    I'm sure you are right regarding the Tories making some gains at the LD expenses on these councils if for no other reason that on many the LDs not only run them but the Tories have disappeared. In places like Woking or Mole Valley there are no Tory councillors or very few and these used to be Tory dominated Boroughs so there is no further scope for the LDs and everything for the Tories to go for.

    However before that we have the Counties and I expect the LDs to take many Tory seats in Surrey in 2025.

    After that however the LDs will be on the defensive here no matter how well they are doing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,680

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Reeves has left this budget far too long. The last chancellor that left it as long as Reeves is doing (When a complete change of Gov't takes place) was Barber.

    2010 GE 6 May, budget 22 June
    1997 GE May 2, budget 2 July
    1979 GE May 3, budget 12 June
    1974 GEs Feb & October, budgets March, July & November !
    1970 GE June, budget March 1971

    Well parliament was sin recess for 2-3 months immediately after the election. She could hardly do it in the summer, or in conference season.

    To a great degree, she was bound by the election date.

    (And she'll now be happy that she waited – because she gets to do it against a backdrop of growth in the economy)
    The growth rate has slowed from a 2.5% annualised rate before the election to a 1% annualised rate today, the consensus is that Labour are directly responsible for the slowdown with the overly negative rhetoric. It's not a very happy backdrop of growth, more a technical one.
    'the consensus'... hmm. I suspect Rachel will be happy with the technicality of... the economy actually returning to growth, rather than chit-chat.
    Returning after she killed it off, despite inheriting a growth rate of 2.5%, you don't like to hear it but she's useless and so is Starmer. By the end of this 5 years you will have the same buyer's remorse as @Leon, he's just got the cojones to admit it now, you're just in a constant state of denial about how badly everything is going.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,955
    Selebian said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Iran 🇮🇷 suspects that the IRGC officer who interrogated Esmail Qaani (Head of IRGC Quds Forces) on suspicion of being an Israeli 🇮🇱 agent, and caused him to suffer a heart attack, is the real Israeli agent. He is now being interrogated by another IRGC officer.

    https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1844525865310326964

    inserts jpg of spidermen pointing at each other
    Sure WebP is the better format for spidermen? :wink:
    Shades of the games that were played in Northern Ireland.

    1) Recruit a double agent.
    2) Use him to install listening device - *In addition to existing listening devices*
    3) When you pick operations by the Other Guys to destroy, select them so that your guy (1) couldn't have known about some of them - using the listening devices and other intelligence.
    a) This puts (1) in the clear
    b) Makes sure that (1) is scared of the fact you have other agents double checking (ha!) his work
    4) As part of 3) pick a list of information that one of the Other Guys *does* know. Frame him, in effect.
    5) After he has been killed, pick another one to frame by blowing selected operations. For added fun, frame the new framing victim for the chap you framed under (4).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,930
    edited October 11

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Reeves has left this budget far too long. The last chancellor that left it as long as Reeves is doing (When a complete change of Gov't takes place) was Barber.

    2010 GE 6 May, budget 22 June
    1997 GE May 2, budget 2 July
    1979 GE May 3, budget 12 June
    1974 GEs Feb & October, budgets March, July & November !
    1970 GE June, budget March 1971

    Well parliament was sin recess for 2-3 months immediately after the election. She could hardly do it in the summer, or in conference season.

    To a great degree, she was bound by the election date.

    (And she'll now be happy that she waited – because she gets to do it against a backdrop of growth in the economy)
    The growth rate has slowed from a 2.5% annualised rate before the election to a 1% annualised rate today, the consensus is that Labour are directly responsible for the slowdown with the overly negative rhetoric. It's not a very happy backdrop of growth, more a technical one.
    'the consensus'... hmm. I suspect Rachel will be happy with the technicality of... the economy actually returning to growth, rather than chit-chat.
    AXA: UK growth momentum is firmly weaker than in H1

    Although the UK economy grew in August, it has lost momentum compared with the first half of this year (when growth was recovering after the small recession in 2023).

    Gabriella Dickens, G7 economist at AXA Investment Managers, says:

    The latest activity data showed the UK returned to growth in August, which will be somewhat of a relief to the Bank of England after two consecutive months of stagnation.

    GDP showed a month-to-month increase of 0.2% in August, in line with ours and markets’ expectations, on the back of strength in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

    The overall picture, though, is that momentum is easing. Indeed, on a three-month-on-three-month basis, growth slowed to just 0.2% in August, compared to downwardly revised 0.3% in July. Furthermore, over Q3, it is on track to post 0.2%, compared to 0.5% in Q2.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Reeves has left this budget far too long. The last chancellor that left it as long as Reeves is doing (When a complete change of Gov't takes place) was Barber.

    2010 GE 6 May, budget 22 June
    1997 GE May 2, budget 2 July
    1979 GE May 3, budget 12 June
    1974 GEs Feb & October, budgets March, July & November !
    1970 GE June, budget March 1971

    Well parliament was sin recess for 2-3 months immediately after the election. She could hardly do it in the summer, or in conference season.

    To a great degree, she was bound by the election date.

    (And she'll now be happy that she waited – because she gets to do it against a backdrop of growth in the economy)
    The growth rate has slowed from a 2.5% annualised rate before the election to a 1% annualised rate today, the consensus is that Labour are directly responsible for the slowdown with the overly negative rhetoric. It's not a very happy backdrop of growth, more a technical one.
    'the consensus'... hmm. I suspect Rachel will be happy with the technicality of... the economy actually returning to growth, rather than chit-chat.
    Returning after she killed it off, despite inheriting a growth rate of 2.5%, you don't like to hear it but she's useless and so is Starmer. By the end of this 5 years you will have the same buyer's remorse as @Leon, he's just got the cojones to admit it now, you're just in a constant state of denial about how badly everything is going.
    It's bizarre that you are writing her off before she has even published her Budget. Give her a chance for crying out loud.
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