On topic, it does suggest that there's something wrong with the Conservative leadership process. Either it's too easy to dump a leader (fifteen percent Mean Girl notes is too low a bar), or the electoral system isn't delivering quality leaders with a decent mandate.
Or a bit of both.
They’ve been undone by the voting system. None of this would have happened if they had AV. Cleverly would then have come through on second preferences.
But they have, from a politics watcher’s perspective, delivered the tantalising prospect of a Kemi leadership which should be anything but dull.
Tory MPs are renowned as the most too clever by half electorate in the world, don’t you know?
The one advantage the next Tory leader will have is Starmer is already losing popularity fast. Even if most Labour leakage goes to Reform, the LDs and Greens that would still see Tory gains if the Labour and Tory gap closed
Pity me! - I’m landing at Gatwick later today and the forecast winds are 13,322mph
That’s going to be BUMPY
That'll be the least of your worries flying into Gatwick . The flight is the easy bit. The longest part of the journey is the service bus from the terminal to the long stay car park.
On the upside with the prevailing wind behind you your flight will only take a couple of minutes.
Serious question. This is @Leon - why would he drive from Camden to Gatwick and leave the vehicle for a week?
To do it by rail the journey is approx 1hr vs 2hrs, and the cost ~£30 vs ~£200 once the car has been in the long-stay car park for a week.
The difference would get him a Thai massage in Geneva.
I haven't found a flight from a London airport, where driving from London (and paying for a long stay) beats even getting a cab.
I think whoever wins will make it to the election.
I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
It's not my politics, but I still think putting together a coherent and detailed programme from a quite hard right position with all the necessary compromises and accepted consequences laid bare could work acceptably well for the Tories. Be hardcore but also be grown up about that.
Then get in Reform's face on detail and take them on head on as the bunch of chancers they are.
It is clear from Europe that hard right politics gets you somewhere, and if the Tories need to occupy that position, Reform must be squashed.
That would have been Priti Patel, eliminated in the first round of this selection.
Thinking about it, if hard right ideology is more important to you than simply who is most likely to win an election, Patel should have been your choice rather than Jenrick or Badenoch. Obviously you wouldn't be interested in Cleverly, who isn't particularly ideological, hence potentially more electable.
On topic, it does suggest that there's something wrong with the Conservative leadership process. Either it's too easy to dump a leader (fifteen percent Mean Girl notes is too low a bar), or the electoral system isn't delivering quality leaders with a decent mandate.
Or a bit of both.
The problem is it is possible to become leader when two thirds of your parliamentary party voted for somebody else.
It becomes a real issue when only 15% is needed to trigger a vote of confidence.
A saner process, if membership must be involved, would seem to be MP nominations -> membership AV or similar -> MPs final say between two or three.
See also Labour with Corbyn. It's simply not sustainable to have a leader that most of the MPs don't back. The Conservatives at least have a defenestration procedure; Labour didn't really have that.
I've seen faster, though grid point storms are unusual over Europe.
Faster than 13508 MPH?
Yes. It's a numerical instability in the model, which is normally caught when the model crashes after a negative number and/or a divide by zero.
If it becomes quasi-stable they can persist for a while, though normally that only happens somewhere like the edge of Antarctica. Meteogroup really should have had a filter in their downscaling for something like this though.
Interesting (certainly more interesting than random data corruption/mishandling between the model and the website). I feel like there's an opening here for somebody to explain to a wider audience what actually happened since it's caught the public eye in this case (though perhaps the audience for it would only be me ;-))
Mrs J and I have been discussing what the error might have been. The numbers are too variable for it to be a simple unsigned int overflow; a WAG would be something weird occurring in the conversion from pressures to speed.
It's a grid point storm.
The models are run at the edge of numerical instability and so sometimes they tip over and you have a single grid point with huge vertical velocities, consequently drawing in massive wings from surrounding grid points as the model tries to avoid a negative density from occurring.
The model watched Threads last night and got the jitters.
[I watched it, and the thing that shocked Mrs Flatlander most was the picture of a jammed road (the A1?) with Elm trees. Big Elm trees. Lost forever.]
Since they switched from Met Office they do seem to get the oddities sometimes. I had a week of 0% chance of rain, with rain every day, before I switched over to the Met Office app instead.
Either the modelling can give craziness (bad assumptions in the model or bad data) and there's no sanity check on the output or there's simple some odd coding error in the model or the app.
5852 MPH up here in Durham. I checked before deciding whether to cycle in or not, yesterday was wretched so I couldn't. On looking out the window I realised the wind was more a gentle 8-10 MPH so I risked the bike
Is it too early to off topic from the Tory psycho-drama?
We get lots and lots of Trump positive polls on here from a particular poster so I thought is there an alternative view to a comfortable Trump College win?
I expect Harris to win comfortably, but I'm not convinced that his predictable opinion holds any significant weight.
He predicts Harris wins 270 to 268.
If Trump loses - and loses narrowly - then its a severe risk of major political agitation at best, violence as the mid case scenario, and another attempted coup at worse.
Trump voters - fed by the sycophants inside the GOP -and client media - are being told this could be the last election. We saw what happened last time, and that was just a warm-up for what they can unleash this time.
The major difference? Trump isn't president, and the sitting president is on his way out. Which means a likely strong reaction from the federal authorities to Trump shenanigans. Which makes it even more likely that it kicks off.
We need Harris to win big.
She won't win big, it will either be a narrow Trump win or a narrow Harris win in my view.
Trump I think will do better than expected in Wisconsin and Michigan, Harris better than expected in Georgia and North Carolina and Pennsylvania Harris probably has the edge with Trump the edge in Arizona
Useless fact of the day - from yesterday’s astronomy lecture on the ship: If it were possible for an airliner to fly continuously above the surface of the largest known star, it would take 1,100 years to complete a circumnavigation
5852 MPH up here in Durham. I checked before deciding whether to cycle in or not, yesterday was wretched so I couldn't. On looking out the window I realised the wind was more a gentle 8-10 MPH so I risked the bike
(Snip img)
You might find there was a '1' missing from the front of the speed. It's more likely to be 15,852. (Inspect the HTML to see...)
On topic, it does suggest that there's something wrong with the Conservative leadership process. Either it's too easy to dump a leader (fifteen percent Mean Girl notes is too low a bar), or the electoral system isn't delivering quality leaders with a decent mandate.
Or a bit of both.
I think the key problem is a hang over from the Brexit Wars, when internal Tory party conflict was substituted for politics across the country as a whole.
Even though Labour has just won a huge landslide, the Tories don't take them seriously as a competitor in British politics. Nor do they take Reform seriously, except as a repository for protest votes, and as an argument in the political struggle that really matters - the one inside the Conservative party.
This is why they now remind me of Trotskyists. The internal factional struggle is the most important. If the Tories do badly at the locals next year, this is going to come as a bit if a shock given the dismissive attitude towards non-Tories (it shouldn't, because 2021 was a Tory high point). It could easily set off another period of internal struggle within the Tories.
And all the while there's Farage and the refrain: Don't cha wish your leader was fun like me? Don't cha?
Agree verymuch, LP.
There seems to be no recognition by the Party that they threw away an 80 seat majority and are now down to 121 MPs.
Another manifestation of the lack of normal parliamentary time since the election. It may take a fair bit of trooping through the lobbies and losing by 150 votes every time before the diminished status of the Conservatives sinks in.
Do either of the Magnificent Two have the gumption to keep going when it's so obviously futile?
The one advantage the next Tory leader will have is Starmer is already losing popularity fast. Even if most Labour leakage goes to Reform, the LDs and Greens that would still see Tory gains if the Labour and Tory gap closed
I stand to be corrected but since 1945 only Iain Duncan-Smith was elected Conservative leader in Opposition immediately following a GE defeat and didn't lead the party into the next election.
In recent times, Heath, Thatcher, Hague and Cameron have all been chosen after a defeat and gone on to fight the next election (and to be fair three of them won (eventually in the case of Heath), only Hague lost and then quit) so the statistic for either Badenoch or Jenrick to be the next Prime Minister (if chosen now as Conservative leader) is actually quite reasonable.
It's been nearly 20 years since the Conservatives last chose a leader in opposition so this isn't the same as the contests that took place from 2015 to 2022 when the Party was in Government and choosing a Prime Minister.
Unfortunately or as we've seen more recently, fortunately, there's only so much the opposition leader can do. Arguably, Thatcher had the advantage of a Government which was effectively a minority and so could be brought down on a Confidence vote - Heath and Cameron had to overturn clear majorities and the next leader's task will be similar.
It can be done, statistically it's as likely as Starmer winning re-election (only Wilson and Blair have managed that) but as we've also seen recently, assuming where you are after 4 months is where you'll be after 4 years is likely to be the quick road to the poorhouse.
On topic, it does suggest that there's something wrong with the Conservative leadership process. Either it's too easy to dump a leader (fifteen percent Mean Girl notes is too low a bar), or the electoral system isn't delivering quality leaders with a decent mandate.
Or a bit of both.
They’ve been undone by the voting system. None of this would have happened if they had AV. Cleverly would then have come through on second preferences.
But they have, from a politics watcher’s perspective, delivered the tantalising prospect of a Kemi leadership which should be anything but dull.
Tory MPs are renowned as the most too clever by half electorate in the world, don’t you know?
Pity me! - I’m landing at Gatwick later today and the forecast winds are 13,322mph
That’s going to be BUMPY
That'll be the least of your worries flying into Gatwick . The flight is the easy bit. The longest part of the journey is the service bus from the terminal to the long stay car park.
On the upside with the prevailing wind behind you your flight will only take a couple of minutes.
Serious question. This is @Leon - why would he drive from Camden to Gatwick and leave the vehicle for a week?
To do it by rail the journey is approx 1hr vs 2hrs, and the cost ~£30 vs ~£200 once the car has been in the long-stay car park for a week.
The difference would get him a Thai massage in Geneva.
I haven't found a flight from a London airport, where driving from London (and paying for a long stay) beats even getting a cab.
The smart parking solution is probably "Park at my House" - if you think you can trust them.
I think whoever wins will make it to the election.
I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
I don't agree Rochdale. Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them. I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.
I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?
She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
Ed Davey in particular will be delighted. I can’t see how either of these two help bring back the blue wall - and given the number of seats, reversing their losses there is the only road back to power for the Tories.
This is overplayed IMHO. The reason the Tories lost in 2024 was because of a lack of competence. I am not convinced by the argument that their positioning, per se, was the cause - more the fact that their delivery was atrocious.
On topic, it does suggest that there's something wrong with the Conservative leadership process. Either it's too easy to dump a leader (fifteen percent Mean Girl notes is too low a bar), or the electoral system isn't delivering quality leaders with a decent mandate.
Or a bit of both.
They’ve been undone by the voting system. None of this would have happened if they had AV. Cleverly would then have come through on second preferences.
But they have, from a politics watcher’s perspective, delivered the tantalising prospect of a Kemi leadership which should be anything but dull.
Tory MPs are renowned as the most too clever by half electorate in the world, don’t you know?
Conservative MPs – the most sophisticated electorate in the world – have ballsed up almost every leadership election they've had, including their first when they elected Mrs Thatcher by mistake.
Models of the atmosphere are designed subject to computing constraints. You want to run the model at as high a resolution as possible - i.e. with large numbers of grid points close together - because this means you can more accurately model all the meteorology. But, the more grid points the more computations and the longer it takes to run the model. No point in a very accurate five day forecast if it takes five days for the forecast to be produced.
One way round this is to run with a long model timestep. Instead of running a full set of calculations for an interval of every five minutes, you might run the calculations for a timestep of half an hour - so you only have to run one-sixth as many calculations, and you can increase the resolution of the calculations instead.
But running with a high resolution, a small grid length, and a long time step, is numerically unstable. There are ways round that, to an extent, but it's always a going to be advantageous to push it right to the limit of what is stable. When it tips over you get a grid point storm.
Think of a thunderstorm - you have relatively fast ascent of air, and this draws in air from the surroundings. If you model this with a long timestep you can imagine ending up with a situation where you have strong winds in opposite directions at the same point. And so the air had to push upwards even faster. So you've created a scenario in the model that couldn't happen in reality, by doing your calculations as approximately as possible with respect to time, and the instability is self-reinforcing.
Thus the winds rapidly escalate until something numerically impossible, like a divide by zero, happens and the model crashes.
If you simply stick them model output directly into forecasts on an app, then if a grid point storm occurs you get what we see today.
I think whoever wins will make it to the election.
I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
I don't agree Rochdale. Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them. I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.
I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?
She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
Ed Davey in particular will be delighted. I can’t see how either of these two help bring back the blue wall - and given the number of seats, reversing their losses there is the only road back to power for the Tories.
This is overplayed IMHO. The reason the Tories lost in 2024 was because of a lack of competence. I am not convinced by the argument that their positioning, per se, was the cause - more the fact that their delivery was atrocious.
So my point would be how could either of these two persuade the blue wall that they have the competence to govern? I don’t see it.
The model watched Threads last night and got the jitters.
[I watched it, and the thing that shocked Mrs Flatlander most was the picture of a jammed road (the A1?) with Elm trees. Big Elm trees. Lost forever.]
Since they switched from Met Office they do seem to get the oddities sometimes. I had a week of 0% chance of rain, with rain every day, before I switched over to the Met Office app instead.
Either the modelling can give craziness (bad assumptions in the model or bad data) and there's no sanity check on the output or there's simple some odd coding error in the model or the app.
The data is from Meteogroup. They're a very capable private weather forecasting outfit, but they don't have the money for a supercomputer, so they take their base weather forecast data from the freely available US model, which is the third best model. The forecasts from the Met Office are simply better, but they charge £££.
Obviously, as a non-Conservative, my thoughts on the Conservative leadership election are wholly inconsequential and occupying valuable space which conservatives and Conservatives should be occupying to discuss the future direction of their movement.
Yeah, right.
Jenrick has always seemed to be trying to be Britain's Poilievre (and to be fair that looks a successful role model in the political and electoral context even though I find Poilievre's views a bit difficult to pin down). Obviously, the electoral parallel (successful opposition leader set to sweep to a landlside victory after a long period of power held by an increasingly divided and unpopular Government) isn't exact. The other problem is whereas Poilievre comes with virtually no baggage from previous Conservative Governments, Jenrick does and in spades.
You could say similar for Badenoch who after all has been in senior Cabinet positions (from some of which she was unceremoniously fired).
From the outside, it looks like two failures from the past seeking, well, what? What or from where are the new "ideas" going to spring? After 1945, Churchill was kept as leader but the policy re-thinking was done by Heath, McLeod and others in the Tory Reform Group so the manifestos of 1950 and 1951 were light years from 1945 (recognising, for example, Attlee's welfare state and the nationalisations).
You can argue it's a strength or a weakness, I don't know, but Conservatives have always recognised the flow of history - even though they opposed the idea of a Mayor for London, once Londoners accepted it, I've never heard, even with the vitriol heaped on Ken Livingstone and Sadiq Khan, a suggestion the Mayoralty should be abolished and power returned to Whitehall and Westminster and the same is true for the Scottish and Welsh devolved parliaments or assemblies.
Jenrick or Badenoch will have to decide how much of the Starmer legislation they are going to swallow or whether their entire programme will be predicated on turning the clock back to 2024. Neither has come up with a new idea, only more of the same and neither has answered the question as to why, if the policies were so good, they were so strongly repudiated by the voting public four months ago.
Obviously, as a non-Conservative, my thoughts on the Conservative leadership election are wholly inconsequential and occupying valuable space which conservatives and Conservatives should be occupying to discuss the future direction of their movement.
Yeah, right.
Jenrick has always seemed to be trying to be Britain's Poilievre (and to be fair that looks a successful role model in the political and electoral context even though I find Poilievre's views a bit difficult to pin down). Obviously, the electoral parallel (successful opposition leader set to sweep to a landlside victory after a long period of power held by an increasingly divided and unpopular Government) isn't exact. The other problem is whereas Poilievre comes with virtually no baggage from previous Conservative Governments, Jenrick does and in spades.
You could say similar for Badenoch who after all has been in senior Cabinet positions (from some of which she was unceremoniously fired).
From the outside, it looks like two failures from the past seeking, well, what? What or from where are the new "ideas" going to spring? After 1945, Churchill was kept as leader but the policy re-thinking was done by Heath, McLeod and others in the Tory Reform Group so the manifestos of 1950 and 1951 were light years from 1945 (recognising, for example, Attlee's welfare state and the nationalisations).
You can argue it's a strength or a weakness, I don't know, but Conservatives have always recognised the flow of history - even though they opposed the idea of a Mayor for London, once Londoners accepted it, I've never heard, even with the vitriol heaped on Ken Livingstone and Sadiq Khan, a suggestion the Mayoralty should be abolished and power returned to Whitehall and Westminster and the same is true for the Scottish and Welsh devolved parliaments or assemblies.
Jenrick or Badenoch will have to decide how much of the Starmer legislation they are going to swallow or whether their entire programme will be predicated on turning the clock back to 2024. Neither has come up with a new idea, only more of the same and neither has answered the question as to why, if the policies were so good, they were so strongly repudiated by the voting public four months ago.
Jenrick has ideas on new affordable homes for younger people like Poilievre and lower taxes and focusing on economic growth not just net zero like Poilievre. Though Poilievre has the advantage his party has been out of power for 9 years as you say so more of a time for change mood in Canada. Jenrick also resigned from Sunak's government over immigration controls not being tough enough.
Badenoch wants a war on woke like her mentor Ron De Santis
I think whoever wins will make it to the election.
I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
I don't agree Rochdale. Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them. I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.
I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?
She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
Ed Davey in particular will be delighted. I can’t see how either of these two help bring back the blue wall - and given the number of seats, reversing their losses there is the only road back to power for the Tories.
This is overplayed IMHO. The reason the Tories lost in 2024 was because of a lack of competence. I am not convinced by the argument that their positioning, per se, was the cause - more the fact that their delivery was atrocious.
So my point would be how could either of these two persuade the blue wall that they have the competence to govern? I don’t see it.
I agree. A monumental task and one I suspect they won’t be up to. Of course some of this will depend on the general perception of the Labour government at the time of the next GE too.
454, 4th highest partnership and the highest partnership for the 4th wicket in test cricket.
As an aside, the highest number of runs in a test match is of course the 1939 England-South Africa test in Durban where the combined total was 1,981 runs.
More recently, the 2022 test in Rawalpindi had 1,768 runs - four England players scored centuries in the opening innings total of 657 - Brook got 153, the others were Crawley, Duckett and Pope with Root only making 23.
We're currently just over 1,350 with a day and a bit to go.
Pity me! - I’m landing at Gatwick later today and the forecast winds are 13,322mph
That’s going to be BUMPY
That'll be the least of your worries flying into Gatwick . The flight is the easy bit. The longest part of the journey is the service bus from the terminal to the long stay car park.
On the upside with the prevailing wind behind you your flight will only take a couple of minutes.
Serious question. This is @Leon - why would he drive from Camden to Gatwick and leave the vehicle for a week?
To do it by rail the journey is approx 1hr vs 2hrs, and the cost ~£30 vs ~£200 once the car has been in the long-stay car park for a week.
The difference would get him a Thai massage in Geneva.
I haven't found a flight from a London airport, where driving from London (and paying for a long stay) beats even getting a cab.
I recently flew to Belfast from Gatwick for the day and the parking was £52, which I thought was OK - I could have parked further from the terminal for less. The train would have been cheaper but driving was quicker and more reliable with an early departure and late arrival.
I think whoever wins will make it to the election.
I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
I don't agree Rochdale. Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them. I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.
I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?
She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
Obviously, as a non-Conservative, my thoughts on the Conservative leadership election are wholly inconsequential and occupying valuable space which conservatives and Conservatives should be occupying to discuss the future direction of their movement.
Yeah, right.
Jenrick has always seemed to be trying to be Britain's Poilievre (and to be fair that looks a successful role model in the political and electoral context even though I find Poilievre's views a bit difficult to pin down). Obviously, the electoral parallel (successful opposition leader set to sweep to a landlside victory after a long period of power held by an increasingly divided and unpopular Government) isn't exact. The other problem is whereas Poilievre comes with virtually no baggage from previous Conservative Governments, Jenrick does and in spades.
You could say similar for Badenoch who after all has been in senior Cabinet positions (from some of which she was unceremoniously fired).
From the outside, it looks like two failures from the past seeking, well, what? What or from where are the new "ideas" going to spring? After 1945, Churchill was kept as leader but the policy re-thinking was done by Heath, McLeod and others in the Tory Reform Group so the manifestos of 1950 and 1951 were light years from 1945 (recognising, for example, Attlee's welfare state and the nationalisations).
You can argue it's a strength or a weakness, I don't know, but Conservatives have always recognised the flow of history - even though they opposed the idea of a Mayor for London, once Londoners accepted it, I've never heard, even with the vitriol heaped on Ken Livingstone and Sadiq Khan, a suggestion the Mayoralty should be abolished and power returned to Whitehall and Westminster and the same is true for the Scottish and Welsh devolved parliaments or assemblies.
Jenrick or Badenoch will have to decide how much of the Starmer legislation they are going to swallow or whether their entire programme will be predicated on turning the clock back to 2024. Neither has come up with a new idea, only more of the same and neither has answered the question as to why, if the policies were so good, they were so strongly repudiated by the voting public four months ago.
Jenrick has ideas on new affordable homes for younger people like Poilievre and lower taxes and focusing on economic growth not just net zero like Poilievre. Though Poilievre has the advantage his party has been out of power for 9 years as you say so more of a time for change mood in Canada. Jenrick also resigned from Sunak's government over immigration controls not being tough enough.
Badenoch wants a war on woke like her mentor Ron De Santis
I've read up a bit on Jenrick. I imagine his views on immigration will chime nicely with some Reform supporters (though perhaps less so with Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters). I'm not sure if he or we fully understand the consequences of leaving the ECHR and the ECJ not only in terms of how we deal with people arriving but how British people are dealt with in other parts of the world.
He has a point in saying businesses have become "hooked on the drug of imported foreign labour" but where is his methadone or does he expect the economy to go "cold turkey"? It's all very well talking about lower taxes (on whom?) to stimulate economic growth but if businesses are unable to grow because of labour shortages, history tells us capacity issues lead to inflation and to demands for higher wages leading to higher costs.
Only explanation that makes sense is that they've given up on winning and reckon it will be less tiring to have the bowlers bat.
Also bear in mind that Pakistan are being ground down in the field here. We have seen some pretty shoddy fielding today. This can impact on their resilience as a batting unit. And there is still comfortably more than a day to go! Even if they can't get the wickets (and they probably can't on this wicket) the Pakistani bowling attack is going to struggle to recover for the next test which is imminent.
I think whoever wins will make it to the election.
I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
I don't agree Rochdale. Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them. I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.
I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?
She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
I dislike Jenrick for the corruption on planning applications, and the performative heartlessness of painting over cartoon characters to be tough on asylum-seeking children. But put words into my mouth to create a strawman if it makes you feel better.
Test cricket needs to sort their pitches out and hit the sweetspot of a pitch that produces a result in 4-5 days. Neither a finish in 3 days or punishing bowlers for 5 days for an inevitable draw are good for ticket revenue. Maybe the Pakistan batsmen will collapse under the pressure.
Pity me! - I’m landing at Gatwick later today and the forecast winds are 13,322mph
That’s going to be BUMPY
That'll be the least of your worries flying into Gatwick . The flight is the easy bit. The longest part of the journey is the service bus from the terminal to the long stay car park.
On the upside with the prevailing wind behind you your flight will only take a couple of minutes.
Serious question. This is @Leon - why would he drive from Camden to Gatwick and leave the vehicle for a week?
To do it by rail the journey is approx 1hr vs 2hrs, and the cost ~£30 vs ~£200 once the car has been in the long-stay car park for a week.
The difference would get him a Thai massage in Geneva.
I haven't found a flight from a London airport, where driving from London (and paying for a long stay) beats even getting a cab.
I recently flew to Belfast from Gatwick for the day and the parking was £52, which I thought was OK - I could have parked further from the terminal for less. The train would have been cheaper but driving was quicker and more reliable with an early departure and late arrival.
I think whoever wins will make it to the election.
I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
I don't agree Rochdale. Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them. I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.
I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?
She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
I would just say on your last sentence, I have not been a Jenrick supporter at anytime and it is fairly obvious that I would support Badenoch just because she is not Jenrick
I really do not know much about Badenoch, but it does seem conservative opponents are out celebrating but who knows what will happen over the next few years with such a volatile and disillusioned electorate
I will wait and watch with interest but will not rejoin the party as I would have if Cleverly had won
Test cricket needs to sort their pitches out and hit the sweetspot of a pitch that produces a result in 4-5 days. Neither a finish in 3 days or punishing bowlers for 5 days for an inevitable draw are good for ticket revenue. Maybe the Pakistan batsmen will collapse under the pressure.
Climate change creating more extremes of weather does make the job of the ground staff more difficult.
Pity me! - I’m landing at Gatwick later today and the forecast winds are 13,322mph
That’s going to be BUMPY
That'll be the least of your worries flying into Gatwick . The flight is the easy bit. The longest part of the journey is the service bus from the terminal to the long stay car park.
On the upside with the prevailing wind behind you your flight will only take a couple of minutes.
Serious question. This is @Leon - why would he drive from Camden to Gatwick and leave the vehicle for a week?
To do it by rail the journey is approx 1hr vs 2hrs, and the cost ~£30 vs ~£200 once the car has been in the long-stay car park for a week.
The difference would get him a Thai massage in Geneva.
I haven't found a flight from a London airport, where driving from London (and paying for a long stay) beats even getting a cab.
I recently flew to Belfast from Gatwick for the day and the parking was £52, which I thought was OK - I could have parked further from the terminal for less. The train would have been cheaper but driving was quicker and more reliable with an early departure and late arrival.
Are there many trains from Belfast to London?
You can get a sailrail ticket. Euston to Holyhead and then Dublin to Belfast after the ferry.
Only explanation that makes sense is that they've given up on winning and reckon it will be less tiring to have the bowlers bat.
Also bear in mind that Pakistan are being ground down in the field here. We have seen some pretty shoddy fielding today. This can impact on their resilience as a batting unit. And there is still comfortably more than a day to go! Even if they can't get the wickets (and they probably can't on this wicket) the Pakistani bowling attack is going to struggle to recover for the next test which is imminent.
England only batted for 1 over longer than Pakistan!
Pity me! - I’m landing at Gatwick later today and the forecast winds are 13,322mph
That’s going to be BUMPY
That'll be the least of your worries flying into Gatwick . The flight is the easy bit. The longest part of the journey is the service bus from the terminal to the long stay car park.
On the upside with the prevailing wind behind you your flight will only take a couple of minutes.
Serious question. This is @Leon - why would he drive from Camden to Gatwick and leave the vehicle for a week?
To do it by rail the journey is approx 1hr vs 2hrs, and the cost ~£30 vs ~£200 once the car has been in the long-stay car park for a week.
The difference would get him a Thai massage in Geneva.
I haven't found a flight from a London airport, where driving from London (and paying for a long stay) beats even getting a cab.
I recently flew to Belfast from Gatwick for the day and the parking was £52, which I thought was OK - I could have parked further from the terminal for less. The train would have been cheaper but driving was quicker and more reliable with an early departure and late arrival.
Are there many trains from Belfast to London?
You can get a sailrail ticket. Euston to Holyhead and then Dublin to Belfast after the ferry.
I think whoever wins will make it to the election.
I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
I don't agree Rochdale. Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them. I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.
I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?
She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
I would just say on your last sentence, I have not been a Jenrick supporter at anytime and it is fairly obvious that I would support Badenoch just because she is not Jenrick
I really do not know much about Badenoch, but it does seem conservative opponents are out celebrating but who knows what will happen over the next few years with such a volatile and disillusioned electorate
I will wait and watch with interest but will not rejoin the party as I would have if Cleverly had won
The electorate are volatile. But that is a function of consistent failure. The reason for the consistent failure is consistent as well.
"It's all nonsense. It was only 63K pages of document that were relevant."
Test cricket needs to sort their pitches out and hit the sweetspot of a pitch that produces a result in 4-5 days. Neither a finish in 3 days or punishing bowlers for 5 days for an inevitable draw are good for ticket revenue. Maybe the Pakistan batsmen will collapse under the pressure.
Climate change creating more extremes of weather does make the job of the ground staff more difficult.
Test cricket needs to sort their pitches out and hit the sweetspot of a pitch that produces a result in 4-5 days. Neither a finish in 3 days or punishing bowlers for 5 days for an inevitable draw are good for ticket revenue. Maybe the Pakistan batsmen will collapse under the pressure.
Climate change creating more extremes of weather does make the job of the ground staff more difficult.
Fake news!! It's just weather!! I'll be safe here in my condo in Florida!! Why hasn't Biden got the airforce to helicopter me out!! This wouldn't have happened if Trump was President!! Hurricanes were too scared of Trump!!
I think whoever wins will make it to the election.
I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
I don't agree Rochdale. Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them. I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.
I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?
She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
I think whoever wins will make it to the election.
I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
I don't agree Rochdale. Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them. I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.
I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?
She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
I would just say on your last sentence, I have not been a Jenrick supporter at anytime and it is fairly obvious that I would support Badenoch just because she is not Jenrick
I really do not know much about Badenoch, but it does seem conservative opponents are out celebrating but who knows what will happen over the next few years with such a volatile and disillusioned electorate
I will wait and watch with interest but will not rejoin the party as I would have if Cleverly had won
I wouldn't, as a non-Conservative, be celebrating IF Badenoch wins.
The big question is whether, by 2028 or 2029, the current government (and governance) model will be so discredited, the economic model failing to deliver growth and the social and cultural model failing to create a cohesive society, people will be willing to listen to something new or different.
Thatcher's win (on a manifesto less radical than Heath's in 1970 incidentially) was as much a recognition of the failure of the post-war concensus and the power of the Unions as it was any huge enthusiasm for the concepts she was putting forward.
What or where are Badenoch's radical ideas on how to govern Britain in the 2030s? The problem with being radical is you have to pick your moment carefully - only in 1945, 1970 and 1979 have more radical ideas prevailed. If there is a perception the post-Thatcherite internationalist social democratic concensus has finally run out of road, then the "radical alternative" might look attractive. I call it the WCGOLT question.
Israel say their response will be lethal and surprising. I wonder if they’ve got something up their sleeve like a mass hack attack that permanently disables loads of economic or military hardware. Or perhaps a special forces snatch squad taking their own hostages from the ranks of Iranian military command, to setup an exchange.
I think whoever wins will make it to the election.
I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
I don't agree Rochdale. Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them. I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.
I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?
She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
I would just say on your last sentence, I have not been a Jenrick supporter at anytime and it is fairly obvious that I would support Badenoch just because she is not Jenrick
I really do not know much about Badenoch, but it does seem conservative opponents are out celebrating but who knows what will happen over the next few years with such a volatile and disillusioned electorate
I will wait and watch with interest but will not rejoin the party as I would have if Cleverly had won
The electorate are volatile. But that is a function of consistent failure. The reason for the consistent failure is consistent as well.
"It's all nonsense. It was only 63K pages of document that were relevant."
I'm sure that we've passed the tipping point where it is now far more profitable to be a consultant or lawyer involved in 'process' than to be the producer of the end product.
Especially so when there is no end product to produce.
Not to mention a lot lower risk - the producer can be liable to legal action if things go wrong.
Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.
The American election involve a large quantity of partisan thinking. In it's most extreme form.
We have seen, many times in the past, people believing that odds mean something beyond how much money has been put on the *belief* that something will happen. That betting on Their Candidate somehow effects the real world.
Comments
[I watched it, and the thing that shocked Mrs Flatlander most was the picture of a jammed road (the A1?) with Elm trees. Big Elm trees. Lost forever.]
In an area lit by gaslight.
Underneath the lantern,
By the barrack gate
Darling I remember
The way you used to wait...
See also Labour with Corbyn. It's simply not sustainable to have a leader that most of the MPs don't back. The Conservatives at least have a defenestration procedure; Labour didn't really have that.
https://x.com/jozivsjozi/status/1844094537352065376?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
The models are run at the edge of numerical instability and so sometimes they tip over and you have a single grid point with huge vertical velocities, consequently drawing in massive wings from surrounding grid points as the model tries to avoid a negative density from occurring.
Either the modelling can give craziness (bad assumptions in the model or bad data) and there's no sanity check on the output or there's simple some odd coding error in the model or the app.
Trump I think will do better than expected in Wisconsin and Michigan, Harris better than expected in Georgia and North Carolina and Pennsylvania Harris probably has the edge with Trump the edge in Arizona
773 for 4
In recent times, Heath, Thatcher, Hague and Cameron have all been chosen after a defeat and gone on to fight the next election (and to be fair three of them won (eventually in the case of Heath), only Hague lost and then quit) so the statistic for either Badenoch or Jenrick to be the next Prime Minister (if chosen now as Conservative leader) is actually quite reasonable.
It's been nearly 20 years since the Conservatives last chose a leader in opposition so this isn't the same as the contests that took place from 2015 to 2022 when the Party was in Government and choosing a Prime Minister.
Unfortunately or as we've seen more recently, fortunately, there's only so much the opposition leader can do. Arguably, Thatcher had the advantage of a Government which was effectively a minority and so could be brought down on a Confidence vote - Heath and Cameron had to overturn clear majorities and the next leader's task will be similar.
It can be done, statistically it's as likely as Starmer winning re-election (only Wilson and Blair have managed that) but as we've also seen recently, assuming where you are after 4 months is where you'll be after 4 years is likely to be the quick road to the poorhouse.
At a run a ball.
Or a Brompton.
Brook's probably been told he's got until tea to make 400.
The Smith wicket makes a declaration more likely.
Models of the atmosphere are designed subject to computing constraints. You want to run the model at as high a resolution as possible - i.e. with large numbers of grid points close together - because this means you can more accurately model all the meteorology. But, the more grid points the more computations and the longer it takes to run the model. No point in a very accurate five day forecast if it takes five days for the forecast to be produced.
One way round this is to run with a long model timestep. Instead of running a full set of calculations for an interval of every five minutes, you might run the calculations for a timestep of half an hour - so you only have to run one-sixth as many calculations, and you can increase the resolution of the calculations instead.
But running with a high resolution, a small grid length, and a long time step, is numerically unstable. There are ways round that, to an extent, but it's always a going to be advantageous to push it right to the limit of what is stable. When it tips over you get a grid point storm.
Think of a thunderstorm - you have relatively fast ascent of air, and this draws in air from the surroundings. If you model this with a long timestep you can imagine ending up with a situation where you have strong winds in opposite directions at the same point. And so the air had to push upwards even faster. So you've created a scenario in the model that couldn't happen in reality, by doing your calculations as approximately as possible with respect to time, and the instability is self-reinforcing.
Thus the winds rapidly escalate until something numerically impossible, like a divide by zero, happens and the model crashes.
If you simply stick them model output directly into forecasts on an app, then if a grid point storm occurs you get what we see today.
Public realm spending is notably down afaics.
But it could be quite variable.
Obviously, as a non-Conservative, my thoughts on the Conservative leadership election are wholly inconsequential and occupying valuable space which conservatives and Conservatives should be occupying to discuss the future direction of their movement.
Yeah, right.
Jenrick has always seemed to be trying to be Britain's Poilievre (and to be fair that looks a successful role model in the political and electoral context even though I find Poilievre's views a bit difficult to pin down). Obviously, the electoral parallel (successful opposition leader set to sweep to a landlside victory after a long period of power held by an increasingly divided and unpopular Government) isn't exact. The other problem is whereas Poilievre comes with virtually no baggage from previous Conservative Governments, Jenrick does and in spades.
You could say similar for Badenoch who after all has been in senior Cabinet positions (from some of which she was unceremoniously fired).
From the outside, it looks like two failures from the past seeking, well, what? What or from where are the new "ideas" going to spring? After 1945, Churchill was kept as leader but the policy re-thinking was done by Heath, McLeod and others in the Tory Reform Group so the manifestos of 1950 and 1951 were light years from 1945 (recognising, for example, Attlee's welfare state and the nationalisations).
You can argue it's a strength or a weakness, I don't know, but Conservatives have always recognised the flow of history - even though they opposed the idea of a Mayor for London, once Londoners accepted it, I've never heard, even with the vitriol heaped on Ken Livingstone and Sadiq Khan, a suggestion the Mayoralty should be abolished and power returned to Whitehall and Westminster and the same is true for the Scottish and Welsh devolved parliaments or assemblies.
Jenrick or Badenoch will have to decide how much of the Starmer legislation they are going to swallow or whether their entire programme will be predicated on turning the clock back to 2024. Neither has come up with a new idea, only more of the same and neither has answered the question as to why, if the policies were so good, they were so strongly repudiated by the voting public four months ago.
Badenoch wants a war on woke like her mentor Ron De Santis
More recently, the 2022 test in Rawalpindi had 1,768 runs - four England players scored centuries in the opening innings total of 657 - Brook got 153, the others were Crawley, Duckett and Pope with Root only making 23.
We're currently just over 1,350 with a day and a bit to go.
Should declare.
And they're in !
He has a point in saying businesses have become "hooked on the drug of imported foreign labour" but where is his methadone or does he expect the economy to go "cold turkey"? It's all very well talking about lower taxes (on whom?) to stimulate economic growth but if businesses are unable to grow because of labour shortages, history tells us capacity issues lead to inflation and to demands for higher wages leading to higher costs.
Maybe the Pakistan batsmen will collapse under the pressure.
I really do not know much about Badenoch, but it does seem conservative opponents are out celebrating but who knows what will happen over the next few years with such a volatile and disillusioned electorate
I will wait and watch with interest but will not rejoin the party as I would have if Cleverly had won
"It's all nonsense. It was only 63K pages of document that were relevant."
Woakes gets a wicket first ball!
Variable bounce for Woakes.
But yes, not easy, particularly for Worcester.
So uphill both ways, if you follow @Selebian 's advice....
But the really worrying thing is they are meant to be north easterly winds, so there's a real risk of some sleet as well.
There must be plenty of pro-trump publishers who would do the work for less.
The big question is whether, by 2028 or 2029, the current government (and governance) model will be so discredited, the economic model failing to deliver growth and the social and cultural model failing to create a cohesive society, people will be willing to listen to something new or different.
Thatcher's win (on a manifesto less radical than Heath's in 1970 incidentially) was as much a recognition of the failure of the post-war concensus and the power of the Unions as it was any huge enthusiasm for the concepts she was putting forward.
What or where are Badenoch's radical ideas on how to govern Britain in the 2030s? The problem with being radical is you have to pick your moment carefully - only in 1945, 1970 and 1979 have more radical ideas prevailed. If there is a perception the post-Thatcherite internationalist social democratic concensus has finally run out of road, then the "radical alternative" might look attractive. I call it the WCGOLT question.
It's worth rewatching Kemi's TED talk when she was still Kemi Adegoke and before she was an MP to get a sense of where she's coming from:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1ulBcFCt-E
Especially so when there is no end product to produce.
Not to mention a lot lower risk - the producer can be liable to legal action if things go wrong.
We have seen, many times in the past, people believing that odds mean something beyond how much money has been put on the *belief* that something will happen. That betting on Their Candidate somehow effects the real world.
Suckers in a market are a valuable resource.