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Cleverly becomes the favourite – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited November 2024 in General
imageCleverly becomes the favourite – politicalbetting.com

This is quite the turn up, I wasn’t expecting this but it is good news for those who followed my tip on Cleverly to win this at 7s.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    Indeed.

    And my wallet agrees.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    More than 150 Conservative councillors have signed a statement urging MPs to vote for Kemi Badenoch so that she is one of the final two candidates on the ballot for party members. The fact that her campaign has released this now is an implicit acceptance of the fact she is struggling to make the final two.

    Guardian live blog
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    rottenborough said:

    More than 150 Conservative councillors have signed a statement urging MPs to vote for Kemi Badenoch so that she is one of the final two candidates on the ballot for party members. The fact that her campaign has released this now is an implicit acceptance of the fact she is struggling to make the final two.

    Guardian live blog

    Heh.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    rottenborough said:

    More than 150 Conservative councillors have signed a statement urging MPs to vote for Kemi Badenoch so that she is one of the final two candidates on the ballot for party members. The fact that her campaign has released this now is an implicit acceptance of the fact she is struggling to make the final two.

    Guardian live blog

    Funny as all fuck if somehow MPs managed to deliver Cleverly and Bademoch to the members...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    The clever man cometh ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,756
    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,574
    lol

    Keir Starmer's net approval rating has fallen further in our latest tracker. It now sits at minus 33 points, which is a drop of 44 points since his post election high. Perhaps explains why this weekend's reset was necessary.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1843277856300044705

    LOOK AT THE CHART

    That's hilarious. A Truss-like plunge and no obvious floor
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Pulpstar said:

    The clever man cometh ?

    I hear Dave and George have been campaigning for him and that George put him in touch with some donors.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,574
    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited October 2024
    Leon said:

    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."

    In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,199
    Didn’t we literally just have this header.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    MarqueeMark said:

    rottenborough said:

    More than 150 Conservative councillors have signed a statement urging MPs to vote for Kemi Badenoch so that she is one of the final two candidates on the ballot for party members. The fact that her campaign has released this now is an implicit acceptance of the fact she is struggling to make the final two.

    Guardian live blog

    Funny as all fuck if somehow MPs managed to deliver Cleverly and Bademoch to the members...
    In which case Badenoch probably would still win
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,574
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."

    In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just with slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
    Yes, I agree with you that Cleverly is a poor choice. An affable manager with no ideas who will not know how to handle Reform, either Badenoch or Jenrick would be better - more risky, perhaps - but the Tories need to take a risk

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,287
    rottenborough said:

    More than 150 Conservative councillors have signed a statement urging MPs to vote for Kemi Badenoch so that she is one of the final two candidates on the ballot for party members. The fact that her campaign has released this now is an implicit acceptance of the fact she is struggling to make the final two.

    Guardian live blog

    If KB has only just realised that she is in trouble, then she is far to dim to be leader of a major political party. (Insert witticism about "that's OK, she only wants to be leader of the Conservatives" to taste.)

    Second place after the redistribution of Patel's votes wasn't good enough. To take an analogy from the erstwhile TV favourite "It's a Knockout", the right have played their joker and the centre-right are doing so tomorrow. (Insert witticism about "there are plenty more jokers still in the race" to taste.)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,756
    I missed the watch discourse on the last thread.

    Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,242
    I've never paid more than £30 for a watch. I've had my Sekonda for about 15 years. It has needed a new battery every 3 or 4 years on a lifetime deal from Timpsons.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,756
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
    Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,074
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."

    In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just with slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
    Yes, I agree with you that Cleverly is a poor choice. An affable manager with no ideas who will not know how to handle Reform, either Badenoch or Jenrick would be better - more risky, perhaps - but the Tories need to take a risk

    Badenoch is a risk, if "risk" means there is a possible upside as well as downside.

    Jenrick is not a risk. He's all downside. Just LOOK at him, and LISTEN to him. He could be packaged in an aerosol as Voter Repellent.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,242
    Trump is the favourite again on Betfair.

    Perhaps it is the latest YouGov national poll showing them level?
    But TIPP, also today, shows Kamala 3% ahead nationally.
    And Activote, also today, shows Kamala 2% ahead in North Carolina.

    Noise I think.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,574
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
    Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
    Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election

    So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,836
    Leon said:

    lol

    Keir Starmer's net approval rating has fallen further in our latest tracker. It now sits at minus 33 points, which is a drop of 44 points since his post election high. Perhaps explains why this weekend's reset was necessary.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1843277856300044705

    LOOK AT THE CHART

    That's hilarious. A Truss-like plunge and no obvious floor

    Errr: the floor is -100, surely.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,836
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."

    In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
    What.

    Cleverly has less charisma than Sunak?

    I mean, I get the dull managerialism criticism. But surely he can't have less charisma than the charisma-free Sunak?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,065
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."

    In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just with slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
    Yes, I agree with you that Cleverly is a poor choice. An affable manager with no ideas who will not know how to handle Reform, either Badenoch or Jenrick would be better - more risky, perhaps - but the Tories need to take a risk

    No decent choice available on the evidence. The Tory party, what's left of it, have two hopes only.

    One is that they will inadvertently appoint a mega-star contrary to expectations - as in a sense they did with Thatcher.

    The other relies on both Labour being so bad and the other parties failing to capitalise on their awfulness that the Tories are in first place simply because they are the least bad. Which is a dismal prospect.

    In a sense what 'should' be happening, with the Tories in useless mode and Labour lead footed and disappointing is a resurgence of the LDs - which is conspicuously not occurring.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,836
    Barnesian said:

    Trump is the favourite again on Betfair.

    Perhaps it is the latest YouGov national poll showing them level?
    But TIPP, also today, shows Kamala 3% ahead nationally.
    And Activote, also today, shows Kamala 2% ahead in North Carolina.

    Noise I think.

    The US Presidential election remains too close to call.

    If the polling error favours the Republicans, than it's President Trump. If it favours the Democrats, then it's President Harris.

    And if there's no polling error, then it's going to be a very, very long night.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,574
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    lol

    Keir Starmer's net approval rating has fallen further in our latest tracker. It now sits at minus 33 points, which is a drop of 44 points since his post election high. Perhaps explains why this weekend's reset was necessary.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1843277856300044705

    LOOK AT THE CHART

    That's hilarious. A Truss-like plunge and no obvious floor

    Errr: the floor is -100, surely.
    I think Starmer is so bad he could go down deeper than that, maybe even as far as -300, where everyone in the country despises him, then they despise him some more, then they despise him all over again
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,713
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."

    In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
    What.

    Cleverly has less charisma than Sunak?

    I mean, I get the dull managerialism criticism. But surely he can't have less charisma than the charisma-free Sunak?
    Sunak is a Star Wars nerd, but I can't find any evidence that he plays Shatterpoint, so Cleverly is instantly more relatable.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
    Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
    Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election

    So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
    Nope

    How many seats did RefUK win?

    How many seats did the Lib Dems win?

    Which is bigger?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,574
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."

    In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just with slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
    Yes, I agree with you that Cleverly is a poor choice. An affable manager with no ideas who will not know how to handle Reform, either Badenoch or Jenrick would be better - more risky, perhaps - but the Tories need to take a risk

    No decent choice available on the evidence. The Tory party, what's left of it, have two hopes only.

    One is that they will inadvertently appoint a mega-star contrary to expectations - as in a sense they did with Thatcher.

    The other relies on both Labour being so bad and the other parties failing to capitalise on their awfulness that the Tories are in first place simply because they are the least bad. Which is a dismal prospect.

    In a sense what 'should' be happening, with the Tories in useless mode and Labour lead footed and disappointing is a resurgence of the LDs - which is conspicuously not occurring.
    Because the LDs are pathetic wet centrists, and a Remainy version of Labour. The clear blue water is on the right, which is why Reform are so conspicuously prospering

    eg Half the country - at least - wants zero net migration. Only Reform come close to that, on this major issue
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,574
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
    Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
    Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election

    So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
    Nope

    How many seats did RefUK win?

    How many seats did the Lib Dems win?

    Which is bigger?
    The whole PB pub turns as the nutter in the cupboard starts his muttering

    Everyone shrugs, and goes back to their drinks
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,776
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."

    In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
    What.

    Cleverly has less charisma than Sunak?

    I mean, I get the dull managerialism criticism. But surely he can't have less charisma than the charisma-free Sunak?
    Now that we have several months experience of SKS, hindsight does not show Rishi Sunak as charisma-free. On the contrary, Rishi now appears quite charming.

  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,425
    Fpt
    eek said:

    turbotubbs said:

    eek said:

    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    eek said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    nico679 said:

    The first thing Reeves should do is u-turn on the WFA and say she’s managed to find the money elsewhere . Take the ridicule and move on .

    Good morning

    That would be the worse thing to do as she would be shown to be weak and anyway she will always be remembered for it, much like Gordon Brown's 75p pensioners rise

    Best just to carry on unless of course the legal challenge upends it
    +1 - the issue really did show how bad this Government was at media communications. The correct thing was to say it's a temporary cut which is made up for in next years above inflation pension increase..
    Indeed the optics of announcing it at the same time as awarding train drivers bumper pay increases to c£70,000 pa was just bad politics
    I think the money is better spent on people actually working for a living than freebies for Rolex-wearing millionaire pensioners.

    The salary for train drivers reflects the supply and demand for labour, nothing more. I'm not sure why these basic laws of labour market economics only apply to CEOs and Premier League footballers, and not people in public service roles.

    (There is no upper age limit for train drivers, so after just 4 years of training pensioners could be earning £55k at ScotRail. Not bad)
    The salary for train drivers doesn't really reflect conventional supply and demand. They get dozens of applications for every vacant trainee post. They only earn anything like they do because of industrial action and militant unions, coupled with limitless government subsidy.

    Actually - as I've pointed out before the wages of a train drive are an infinitesimal part of the cost of running the train network.

    The cost of the train driver is paid for by the first 4 (2 if first class) passengers who get on the train at Euston..

    Their wages are high because if they don't turn up Virgin West Coast lost over £100,000 per journey. Even £500 (their overtime rate) is cheap when the lack of a driver would mean £300-400,000 in lost revenue..
    But if you train three times as many and one doesn't turn up, the next one gets the gig. Its surely like any other scarcity - break the scarcity, bring down the cost. Its in the drivers interests to have too few drivers. Just as its in doctors interests not to have loads of unemployed heart surgeons just waiting, scalpel in hand.

    We saw in pharmacy what happened when we introduced a glut in the market of pharmacists. Can you guess?

    Yep - salaries went down (mainly the bellwether of locum rates).
    And the reason why we currently don't have enough train drivers to work without overtime being timetabled is because since 2020 no company has had an incentive to train train drivers because the Department of Transport vetos it when the operator asks for the budget to do so..
    Which is why we should be abolishing most of the DfT, and letting the private companies that have railway franchises manage their franchises as they see fit, without Sir Humphrey driving from the back seat.

    Instead of which, team idiot which is now in office thinks the future is giving the DfT more control via nationalisation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited October 2024
    Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....

    Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.

    It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    lol

    Keir Starmer's net approval rating has fallen further in our latest tracker. It now sits at minus 33 points, which is a drop of 44 points since his post election high. Perhaps explains why this weekend's reset was necessary.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1843277856300044705

    LOOK AT THE CHART

    That's hilarious. A Truss-like plunge and no obvious floor

    Errr: the floor is -100, surely.
    We'll get back to you in a couple of weeks. Actually, make that after the Budget.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,362
    I forgot this from March: the existence of "secret non-Trump voters", or "shy non-Trumps" in British terms. https://archive.is/blzcz
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,574
    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."

    In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
    What.

    Cleverly has less charisma than Sunak?

    I mean, I get the dull managerialism criticism. But surely he can't have less charisma than the charisma-free Sunak?
    Now that we have several months experience of SKS, hindsight does not show Rishi Sunak as charisma-free. On the contrary, Rishi now appears quite charming.

    And the polls agree. Starmer is now less popular than massively-unpopular Sunak, and Starmer's polling is in free-fall and Sunak's is stable (albeit bad)

    I don't believe this "relaunch" will help Starmer. You can't relaunch a dud
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,728
    Barnesian said:

    I've never paid more than £30 for a watch. I've had my Sekonda for about 15 years. It has needed a new battery every 3 or 4 years on a lifetime deal from Timpsons.

    Sekonda are interesting: started out as a British brand for Soviet factories, since moved to Hong Kong, and probably China now.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    lol

    Keir Starmer's net approval rating has fallen further in our latest tracker. It now sits at minus 33 points, which is a drop of 44 points since his post election high. Perhaps explains why this weekend's reset was necessary.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1843277856300044705

    LOOK AT THE CHART

    That's hilarious. A Truss-like plunge and no obvious floor

    Errr: the floor is -100, surely.
    I think Starmer is so bad he could go down deeper than that, maybe even as far as -300, where everyone in the country despises him, then they despise him some more, then they despise him all over again
    We may have to bring people in from outside the country, just to despise him...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,728
    edited October 2024
    Amusingly bitchy review of Sopel's britain-bad book:

    "Strangeland by Jon Sopel review — the bathos of an ex-BBC man"

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/3a3bbc7d-7778-404b-be31-bbc84aa57ec6?shareToken=557467c1331271032c703eb37b11c615
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,425
    edited October 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
    Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
    Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election

    So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
    Nope

    How many seats did RefUK win?

    How many seats did the Lib Dems win?

    Which is bigger?
    Except that parties are interested in voters, which are potentially directly transferable. And there are more Ref voters than Lib Dem voters. The present commons seat distribution is a sideshow.

    Also, this election was probably high tide for the Lib Dems, particularly in seat terms.
    All the signs are that Reform will be growing strongly between now and 2028/9, particularly on the back of disaffected Labour votes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited October 2024
    carnforth said:

    Amusingly bitchy review of Sopel's britain-bad book:

    "Strangeland by Jon Sopel review — the bathos of an ex-BBC man"

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/3a3bbc7d-7778-404b-be31-bbc84aa57ec6?shareToken=557467c1331271032c703eb37b11c615

    Sopel is insufferable. If I never heard from him and James O'Brien ever again life would be instantly better.

    That hole he dug himself over Huw Edwards was funny though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
    Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
    Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election

    So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
    Nope

    How many seats did RefUK win?

    How many seats did the Lib Dems win?

    Which is bigger?
    Latest 2 polls have Reform on 20% and the LDs on 11 and 13% and the Tories on 24 and 25%.

    The LDs also only gained half their seats from the Tories as the rightwing vote was split, with the Tory and Reform vote combined bigger than the vote for the winning LD candidate

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    theProle said:

    Except that parties are interested in voters, which are potentially directly transferable. And there are more Ref voters than Lib Dem voters.

    They are interested in seats. The distribution of those voters is important.

    The more the Tories chase RefUK, the more RefUK voters they create.

    Appeasement leads to defeat. Victory will only come through challenging them.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,074
    I wonder if the ERG types may have a rethink in their support for Jenrick. It looks as if he may well lose against Cleverly in a match-up. Kemi much better chance.

    They can always rationalise away the defection from Team Bobby. Well, it wasn't so long ago that he was a remainy Cameroon. Not something you could ever accuse KB of being. And the ballot is secret anyway.

    Wednesday will be interesting.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,601
    "The goalposts are starting to shift on Labour’s taxation policies once again. Liam Byrne, a key figure in the government and chair of the Commons Business and Trade Committee, is calling on the party to raise taxes on wealth. Byrne does not just see a raid on people’s wealth as a means to raise revenue, but also as a way to curtail the rise of populism in Britain — as strange as this might seem."

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/blame-labour-policies-for-fuelling-populism/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."

    In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
    You must be worried,but then for those of us who want an opportuniy to start the process of speaking to the public then Cleverly wins hands down

    I rejoin if he wins the leadership
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Trump is the favourite again on Betfair.

    Perhaps it is the latest YouGov national poll showing them level?
    But TIPP, also today, shows Kamala 3% ahead nationally.
    And Activote, also today, shows Kamala 2% ahead in North Carolina.

    Noise I think.

    The US Presidential election remains too close to call.

    If the polling error favours the Republicans, than it's President Trump. If it favours the Democrats, then it's President Harris.

    And if there's no polling error, then it's going to be a very, very long night.
    Well the longest night is a fortnight, which sounds like the most probable amount of time for them to have an idea of the result.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,465
    Leon said:

    lol

    Keir Starmer's net approval rating has fallen further in our latest tracker. It now sits at minus 33 points, which is a drop of 44 points since his post election high. Perhaps explains why this weekend's reset was necessary.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1843277856300044705

    LOOK AT THE CHART

    That's hilarious. A Truss-like plunge and no obvious floor

    If anything the trajectory is accelerating
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,972
    TimS said:

    I missed the watch discourse on the last thread.

    Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.

    +1 for the Casio. I live in my G Shock - at least a decade old and still running on its original battery. Has travelled the world with me. Never skips a beat. No need to worry about chargers. Doesn't ping me with endless notifications, annoy people at the theatre, or track my every move.

    For formal events where a suit or smarter appearance is required, I'll wear a Seiko or Orient worth £100-200 at best. Putting them on a nice aftermarket strap really makes them look smart.

    I have some nice Swiss watches that never get worn, lest I get stabbed or my hand hacked off. Nice to own, but utterly impractical in a city like London - I've heard too many horror stories from friends who've been targeted.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,465
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    "This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."

    In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just with slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
    Yes, I agree with you that Cleverly is a poor choice. An affable manager with no ideas who will not know how to handle Reform, either Badenoch or Jenrick would be better - more risky, perhaps - but the Tories need to take a risk

    Not now. First thing is to stabilise and lay the ground work. They need to go back to first principles an d figure out what they are for rather than scampering this way and that in search for votes

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,601
    edited October 2024
    carnforth said:

    Amusingly bitchy review of Sopel's britain-bad book:

    "Strangeland by Jon Sopel review — the bathos of an ex-BBC man"

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/3a3bbc7d-7778-404b-be31-bbc84aa57ec6?shareToken=557467c1331271032c703eb37b11c615

    The end of this paragraph made me laugh out loud.

    "Sopel’s arched eyebrow over Trump’s America, especially on the BBC’s Americast podcast, won him many fans in Britain. But did it add to their understanding of what was happening there? His 40-page rehash of the January 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol building in Strangeland (a book, remember, that is supposed to be about “Britishness”) is telling. He calls it “the most shocking day of my journalistic career”. The day ended with Sopel tweeting a picture of a glass of red wine to tell his followers he was “fine”."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Andy_JS said:

    "The goalposts are starting to shift on Labour’s taxation policies once again. Liam Byrne, a key figure in the government and chair of the Commons Business and Trade Committee, is calling on the party to raise taxes on wealth. Byrne does not just see a raid on people’s wealth as a means to raise revenue, but also as a way to curtail the rise of populism in Britain — as strange as this might seem."

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/blame-labour-policies-for-fuelling-populism/

    They are going to have to put on a lot of extra capacity in flights to Dubai....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....

    Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.

    It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.

    Telegraph cartoon this morning rather amused on that front.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/telegraph-cartoons-october-2024/
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,465
    Barnesian said:

    I've never paid more than £30 for a watch. I've had my Sekonda for about 15 years. It has needed a new battery every 3 or 4 years on a lifetime deal from Timpsons.

    I paid about £400 for a watch 30 years ago and it is still going strong.

    That lifetime deal sounds great though! Do they still do them?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited October 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Amusingly bitchy review of Sopel's britain-bad book:

    "Strangeland by Jon Sopel review — the bathos of an ex-BBC man"

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/3a3bbc7d-7778-404b-be31-bbc84aa57ec6?shareToken=557467c1331271032c703eb37b11c615

    The end of this paragraph made me laugh out loud.

    "Sopel’s arched eyebrow over Trump’s America, especially on the BBC’s Americast podcast, won him many fans in Britain. But did it add to their understanding of what was happening there? His 40-page rehash of the January 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol building in Strangeland (a book, remember, that is supposed to be about “Britishness”) is telling. He calls it “the most shocking day of my journalistic career”. The day ended with Sopel tweeting a picture of a glass of red wine to tell his followers he was “fine”."
    I always wonder who commissions these books.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,574
    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Amusingly bitchy review of Sopel's britain-bad book:

    "Strangeland by Jon Sopel review — the bathos of an ex-BBC man"

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/3a3bbc7d-7778-404b-be31-bbc84aa57ec6?shareToken=557467c1331271032c703eb37b11c615

    The end of this paragraph made me laugh out loud.

    "Sopel’s arched eyebrow over Trump’s America, especially on the BBC’s Americast podcast, won him many fans in Britain. But did it add to their understanding of what was happening there? His 40-page rehash of the January 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol building in Strangeland (a book, remember, that is supposed to be about “Britishness”) is telling. He calls it “the most shocking day of my journalistic career”. The day ended with Sopel tweeting a picture of a glass of red wine to tell his followers he was “fine”."
    Also this line

    "Sopel’s observations are pure, uncut bathos. Big Ben is “an iconic timepiece”."
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    TimS said:

    I missed the watch discourse on the last thread.

    Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.

    I bought a Samsung smart watch due to the need to check my pulse rate keeps near the 60bpm set by my pacemaker, but there are certain features like body mass index and some fitness tracking I avoid due to the possible interference with the pacemaker

    It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The goalposts are starting to shift on Labour’s taxation policies once again. Liam Byrne, a key figure in the government and chair of the Commons Business and Trade Committee, is calling on the party to raise taxes on wealth. Byrne does not just see a raid on people’s wealth as a means to raise revenue, but also as a way to curtail the rise of populism in Britain — as strange as this might seem."

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/blame-labour-policies-for-fuelling-populism/

    They are going to have to put on a lot of extra capacity in flights to Dubai....
    The UK might benefit from making the wings and engines for that new fleet of A380s.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,971
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    lol

    Keir Starmer's net approval rating has fallen further in our latest tracker. It now sits at minus 33 points, which is a drop of 44 points since his post election high. Perhaps explains why this weekend's reset was necessary.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1843277856300044705

    LOOK AT THE CHART

    That's hilarious. A Truss-like plunge and no obvious floor

    Errr: the floor is -100, surely.
    Starmer : Hold my curry and watch this….

    The poll above is further evidence that the entire British nation are alt-right extremists who need to be cancelled for wasting time over a non story.


    Auf denen zu lesen war, daß das Volk
    Das Vertrauen der Regierung verscherzt habe
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    edited October 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
    Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
    Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election

    So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
    Nope

    How many seats did RefUK win?

    How many seats did the Lib Dems win?

    Which is bigger?
    Point of order

    Who won the most votes in the election

    Reform or the Lib Dems ?

    Just to confirm I do not support Reform at all
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,601
    One interesting thing about Jon Sopel is how he manages to look the same now as he did in 1995.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited October 2024
    On the watch front, here is an interesting factoid....Rolex Submariner is 6x more expensive (in real terms) than 60 years ago, while they make 6x as many....Apparently Rolex now make more watches than Toyota make cars per year. Not exactly exclusive any more.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,465
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
    Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
    Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election

    So Reform is the immediate and proximate
    danger, that has to be neutralised
    You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party

    They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.

    Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
  • eekeek Posts: 30,802
    edited October 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    "The goalposts are starting to shift on Labour’s taxation policies once again. Liam Byrne, a key figure in the government and chair of the Commons Business and Trade Committee, is calling on the party to raise taxes on wealth. Byrne does not just see a raid on people’s wealth as a means to raise revenue, but also as a way to curtail the rise of populism in Britain — as strange as this might seem."

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/blame-labour-policies-for-fuelling-populism/

    Labour are going to have to learn to fight these sort of battles internally - but the biggest problem they have is all that all their flagship tax plans don't work.

    It seems the raid on pensions has stopped because of consequences (everyone would shift to salary sacrifice and taxing that would be problematic) and they've ruled out many of the large options. So what's left is wealth which unless you are talking houses is very easy to move round...

    Heck we've had this conversation multiple times in the past and the end result has always been a tax based on the property value replacing council tax and stamp duty...

    And yes I know some people on here prefer a land value tax - I just think replacing rates with something based on value is easier to implement and raises more..
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,703
    Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,802
    StillWaters said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
    Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
    Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election

    So Reform is the immediate and proximate
    danger, that has to be neutralised
    You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party

    They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.

    Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
    If they are working to become a serious party I suspect 90% of the work involved would be invisible to outsiders..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    On the watch front, here is an interesting factoid....Rolex Submariner is 6x more expensive (in real terms) than 60 years ago, while they make 6x as many....Apparently Rolex now make more watches than Toyota make cars per year. Not exactly exclusive any more.

    Yet it’s still pretty much impossible to walk into a shop and buy a Rolex in many markets. But there are now many more markets than there were a few decades ago.

    (Rolex makes an estimated 1m watches per year, and Toyota 10.7m cars in 2023).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Leon said:

    lol

    Keir Starmer's net approval rating has fallen further in our latest tracker. It now sits at minus 33 points, which is a drop of 44 points since his post election high. Perhaps explains why this weekend's reset was necessary.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1843277856300044705

    LOOK AT THE CHART

    That's hilarious. A Truss-like plunge and no obvious floor

    In the words of the legendary Quo - Down, down, deeper and down... 😂

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited October 2024
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    On the watch front, here is an interesting factoid....Rolex Submariner is 6x more expensive (in real terms) than 60 years ago, while they make 6x as many....Apparently Rolex now make more watches than Toyota make cars per year. Not exactly exclusive any more.

    Yet it’s still pretty much impossible to walk into a shop and buy a Rolex in many markets. But there are now many more markets than there were a few decades ago.

    (Rolex makes an estimated 1m watches per year, and Toyota 10.7m cars in 2023).
    I believe Rolex is significantly than 1m now, they opened 3 new temporary factories to knock them but, I meant to say Toyota in US where is 1.x million.

    When you say you can't buy one, its China....I believe 1/3 of Rolex's are sold in China and they have some stupid amount of registered dealers now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    Sandpit said:

    Yet it’s still pretty much impossible to walk into a shop and buy a Rolex in many markets. But there are now many more markets than there were a few decades ago.

    (Rolex makes an estimated 1m watches per year, and Toyota 10.7m cars in 2023).

    Even if you walk into a shop where you can buy a Rolex, there is a good chance it won't be exactly the model you want
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,668
    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....

    Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.

    It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.

    I was thinking on the Chagos thing last night

    This is what we should have done. Offered the Chagossians - here in the UK and Mauritiius - a plebiscite and let THEM choose

    1. Become full UK citizens, Chagos remains British, indeed it is incorporated into the UK as a democratic constituency. They can settle on any island apart from Diego Garcia. The UKG and the Chagossians together decide the future of the seas and its riches

    2. What Labour did. Hand it all over to Mauritius (and China). No UK citizenship

    I am pretty sure they would have chosen option 1. And then Britain would have kept the Chagos, kept the base, kept China at bay, and satisfied the Chagossians AND we would have then had a cast iron case to show the ICJ and the UN, "they have decided, that's democracy"
    Bit late with that.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,703
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TimS said:

    I missed the watch discourse on the last thread.

    Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.

    I bought a Samsung smart watch due to the need to check my pulse rate keeps near the 60bpm set by my pacemaker, but there are certain features like body mass index and some fitness tracking I avoid due to the possible interference with the pacemaker

    It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
    I sat a couple of seats along from a guy wearing a smart watch during a recent visit to the theatre. In the darkened auditorium the permanently illuminated display was lit up like a Christmas tree. To make things worse the guy couldn't stop fiddling with his face and so seemed to be waving the thing around constantly. It only added to my belief that modern technology is giving people infinite opportunities to be unbearable (see also: phones, vapes, social media, e-bikes).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,668
    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Amusingly bitchy review of Sopel's britain-bad book:

    "Strangeland by Jon Sopel review — the bathos of an ex-BBC man"

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/3a3bbc7d-7778-404b-be31-bbc84aa57ec6?shareToken=557467c1331271032c703eb37b11c615

    The end of this paragraph made me laugh out loud.

    "Sopel’s arched eyebrow over Trump’s America, especially on the BBC’s Americast podcast, won him many fans in Britain. But did it add to their understanding of what was happening there? His 40-page rehash of the January 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol building in Strangeland (a book, remember, that is supposed to be about “Britishness”) is telling. He calls it “the most shocking day of my journalistic career”. The day ended with Sopel tweeting a picture of a glass of red wine to tell his followers he was “fine”."
    Close competition with Justin Webb for worst BBC US correspondent ever.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,465
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The goalposts are starting to shift on Labour’s taxation policies once again. Liam Byrne, a key figure in the government and chair of the Commons Business and Trade Committee, is calling on the party to raise taxes on wealth. Byrne does not just see a raid on people’s wealth as a means to raise revenue, but also as a way to curtail the rise of populism in Britain — as strange as this might seem."

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/blame-labour-policies-for-fuelling-populism/

    Labour are going to have to learn to fight these sort of battles internally - but the biggest problem they have is all that all their flagship tax plans don't work.

    It seems the raid on pensions has stopped because of consequences (everyone would shift to salary sacrifice and taxing that would be problematic) and they've ruled out many of the large options. So what's left is wealth which unless you are talking houses is very easy to move round...

    Heck we've had this conversation multiple times in the past and the end result has always been a tax based on the property value replacing council tax and stamp duty...

    And yes I know some people on here prefer a land value tax - I just think replacing rates with something based on value is easier to implement and raises more..
    It’s the right thing to do.

    But I can’t wait to see the net approval graph after it’s introduced…
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,713
    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....

    Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.

    It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.

    I was thinking on the Chagos thing last night

    This is what we should have done. Offered the Chagossians - here in the UK and Mauritiius - a plebiscite and let THEM choose

    1. Become full UK citizens, Chagos remains British, indeed it is incorporated into the UK as a democratic constituency. They can settle on any island apart from Diego Garcia. The UKG and the Chagossians together decide the future of the seas and its riches

    2. What Labour did. Hand it all over to Mauritius (and China). No UK citizenship

    I am pretty sure they would have chosen option 1. And then Britain would have kept the Chagos, kept the base, kept China at bay, and satisfied the Chagossians AND we would have then had a cast iron case to show the ICJ and the UN, "they have decided, that's democracy"
    Yes, that would have been a way ahead.

    I'm not certain that the vote would have gone that way. Quite a few of the Chagossians in Mauritius are said to be keen on being part of Mauritius.

    We should have done the same in Hong Kong - held a referendum.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TimS said:

    I missed the watch discourse on the last thread.

    Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.

    I bought a Samsung smart watch due to the need to check my pulse rate keeps near the 60bpm set by my pacemaker, but there are certain features like body mass index and some fitness tracking I avoid due to the possible interference with the pacemaker

    It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
    I sat a couple of seats along from a guy wearing a smart watch during a recent visit to the theatre. In the darkened auditorium the permanently illuminated display was lit up like a Christmas tree. To make things worse the guy couldn't stop fiddling with his face and so seemed to be waving the thing around constantly. It only added to my belief that modern technology is giving people infinite opportunities to be unbearable (see also: phones, vapes, social media, e-bikes).
    That is just inconsiderate and unnecessary as you can switch off the illuminated display whenever necessary

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yet it’s still pretty much impossible to walk into a shop and buy a Rolex in many markets. But there are now many more markets than there were a few decades ago.

    (Rolex makes an estimated 1m watches per year, and Toyota 10.7m cars in 2023).

    Even if you walk into a shop where you can buy a Rolex, there is a good chance it won't be exactly the model you want
    Yes even if you find a dealer with one they’re prepared to sell you, you’re not going to have much choice in the matter. But don’t wear that one, tell the dealer what you’re actually looking for, and perhaps if you buy a couple more watches in the next year or two your numbers might come up one day.

    Yes its that bad. It’s like trying to get an allocation for a Porsche GT3 or a limited edition Ferrari.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,465
    eek said:

    StillWaters said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
    Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
    Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election

    So Reform is the immediate and proximate
    danger, that has to be neutralised
    You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party

    They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.

    Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
    If they are working to become a serious party I suspect 90% of the work involved
    would be invisible to outsiders..
    Fair point. But given how gossipy they are I suspect there would have been hints - if there is nothing in the next 12-18 months then they are not…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,668
    LostPassword said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....

    Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.

    It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.

    I was thinking on the Chagos thing last night

    This is what we should have done. Offered the Chagossians - here in the UK and Mauritiius - a plebiscite and let THEM choose

    1. Become full UK citizens, Chagos remains British, indeed it is incorporated into the UK as a democratic constituency. They can settle on any island apart from Diego Garcia. The UKG and the Chagossians together decide the future of the seas and its riches

    2. What Labour did. Hand it all over to Mauritius (and China). No UK citizenship

    I am pretty sure they would have chosen option 1. And then Britain would have kept the Chagos, kept the base, kept China at bay, and satisfied the Chagossians AND we would have then had a cast iron case to show the ICJ and the UN, "they have decided, that's democracy"
    Yes, that would have been a way ahead.

    I'm not certain that the vote would have gone that way. Quite a few of the Chagossians in Mauritius are said to be keen on being part of Mauritius.

    We should have done the same in Hong Kong - held a referendum.
    Either way, at least we'd have known.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    LostPassword said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....

    Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.

    It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.

    I was thinking on the Chagos thing last night

    This is what we should have done. Offered the Chagossians - here in the UK and Mauritiius - a plebiscite and let THEM choose

    1. Become full UK citizens, Chagos remains British, indeed it is incorporated into the UK as a democratic constituency. They can settle on any island apart from Diego Garcia. The UKG and the Chagossians together decide the future of the seas and its riches

    2. What Labour did. Hand it all over to Mauritius (and China). No UK citizenship

    I am pretty sure they would have chosen option 1. And then Britain would have kept the Chagos, kept the base, kept China at bay, and satisfied the Chagossians AND we would have then had a cast iron case to show the ICJ and the UN, "they have decided, that's democracy"
    Yes, that would have been a way ahead.

    I'm not certain that the vote would have gone that way. Quite a few of the Chagossians in Mauritius are said to be keen on being part of Mauritius.

    We should have done the same in Hong Kong - held a referendum.
    Hong Kong it was not realistic for us to keep control after the lease was up or even give Hong Kongers independence unless the US was also on board as only US support could have contained Beijing
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,355
    A number of people here were saying very assuredly a few days ago that Diego Garcia meant Cleverly now had no chance. There is perhaps a lesson there in not getting caught up in your own outrage.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,713
    JosiasJessop said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TimS said:

    I missed the watch discourse on the last thread.

    Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.

    I bought a Samsung smart watch due to the need to check my pulse rate keeps near the 60bpm set by my pacemaker, but there are certain features like body mass index and some fitness tracking I avoid due to the possible interference with the pacemaker

    It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
    It's the sort of 'argument' that amuses me. If your watch allows you to do what you want, cool. If someone wants a bog-standard watch to just tell the time, cool. If someone doesn't want to wear a watch, cool.

    My watch allows me to do what I want, pretty much. I wouldn't force anyone else to wear one, or tell people that they must get one. But neither is it, in my mind, a status symbol. It is simply a tool that does a job.
    I have a watch which is definitely more a display piece then a simple tool, though it does also tell the time. I bought it deliberately because it was pretty, in the same way as someone might buy an attractive piece of jewellery.

    And the inherent purpose of such things is to display status. Even with a functional watch you are displaying your disdain for display.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,135
    It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.

    I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,601
    edited October 2024
    Tory Home is listing Tom Pursglove as a Cleverly supporter. Only problem is he lost his seat in Corby at the GE.

    https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/02/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1843289827904766450

    General election poll

    🔴 Trump 47%
    🔵 Harris 47%

    Last poll - 🔵 Harris +4

    YouGov (Yahoo) #B - LV - 10/4
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,713
    HYUFD said:

    LostPassword said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....

    Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.

    It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.

    I was thinking on the Chagos thing last night

    This is what we should have done. Offered the Chagossians - here in the UK and Mauritiius - a plebiscite and let THEM choose

    1. Become full UK citizens, Chagos remains British, indeed it is incorporated into the UK as a democratic constituency. They can settle on any island apart from Diego Garcia. The UKG and the Chagossians together decide the future of the seas and its riches

    2. What Labour did. Hand it all over to Mauritius (and China). No UK citizenship

    I am pretty sure they would have chosen option 1. And then Britain would have kept the Chagos, kept the base, kept China at bay, and satisfied the Chagossians AND we would have then had a cast iron case to show the ICJ and the UN, "they have decided, that's democracy"
    Yes, that would have been a way ahead.

    I'm not certain that the vote would have gone that way. Quite a few of the Chagossians in Mauritius are said to be keen on being part of Mauritius.

    We should have done the same in Hong Kong - held a referendum.
    Hong Kong it was not realistic for us to keep control after the lease was up or even give Hong Kongers independence unless the US was also on board as only US support could have contained Beijing
    I'm not convinced. The Chinese didn't formally recognise the treaties that gave Britain Hong Kong, so the expiration of the lease was only a problem for Britain, which a referendum could have changed, and then the status quo would likely have continued for at least some time.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,355
    theProle said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hurrah! Sense may yet prevail...

    At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:

    I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
    He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
    Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
    Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election

    So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
    Nope

    How many seats did RefUK win?

    How many seats did the Lib Dems win?

    Which is bigger?
    Except that parties are interested in voters, which are potentially directly transferable. And there are more Ref voters than Lib Dem voters. The present commons seat distribution is a sideshow.

    Also, this election was probably high tide for the Lib Dems, particularly in seat terms.
    All the signs are that Reform will be growing strongly between now and 2028/9, particularly on the back of disaffected Labour votes.
    Reform UK have the potential to grow, certainly, but they also have the potential to crash and burn. We’ve been here before with UKIP and growing electoral success for UKIP rapidly turned into infighting. Can RefUK scale up from the Nigel Farage show? Can they live up to expectations now they have seats in Parliament? I am confident the LibDems will still exist in 2028/9. I am not confident Reform UK will.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited October 2024
    TOPPING said:

    It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.

    I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.

    Super clones. Quite a few people get a super clone while also owning the legit one. You can wear your £500-1000 super clone out and about if somebody robs you its not the end of the world, and basically nobody but a real expert with time can tell the difference.

    I think there was a fairly recent case where a guy ended up dead after he was targeted for what his close associates believed was the legit one, but he only wore the super clone out and about.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    LostPassword said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TimS said:

    I missed the watch discourse on the last thread.

    Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.

    I bought a Samsung smart watch due to the need to check my pulse rate keeps near the 60bpm set by my pacemaker, but there are certain features like body mass index and some fitness tracking I avoid due to the possible interference with the pacemaker

    It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
    It's the sort of 'argument' that amuses me. If your watch allows you to do what you want, cool. If someone wants a bog-standard watch to just tell the time, cool. If someone doesn't want to wear a watch, cool.

    My watch allows me to do what I want, pretty much. I wouldn't force anyone else to wear one, or tell people that they must get one. But neither is it, in my mind, a status symbol. It is simply a tool that does a job.
    I have a watch which is definitely more a display piece then a simple tool, though it does also tell the time. I bought it deliberately because it was pretty, in the same way as someone might buy an attractive piece of jewellery.

    And the inherent purpose of such things is to display status. Even with a functional watch you are displaying your disdain for display.
    Speak for yourself.

    The inherent purpose of my Apple Watch Ultra watch is not to display status. It's to track my running times, sleep quality and other health, and display OS Maps in hi-res on my watchface when I'm hiking.

    It's about as far from an "attractive piece of jewellery" as you can get.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,465
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If you think the Tories are having trouble getting a half decent leader, spare a thought for Hezbollah....

    There’s definitely a Monty python sketch there - everyone denying that the chance to be Spartacus
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,355
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.

    Tugendhat is the obvious option. He performed well as Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. I don’t think any of the other three can point to something they were a comparable success at.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,336
    bondegezou said:

    A number of people here were saying very assuredly a few days ago that Diego Garcia meant Cleverly now had no chance. There is perhaps a lesson there in not getting caught up in your own outrage.

    I have to admit annoyance that that 'outrage' didn't result in a significant lengthening of his odds :) Having hesitated and missed the opportunity to up my stake when he was over 10.
    Not sure whether to cash out or hold now.
    If Tugendhat is next out, Cleverly's potentially got the opportunity to deide if he faces Jenrick or Badenoch.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,465
    TOPPING said:

    It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.

    I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.

    Every time he checks it he gets to think about how clever he was (because he doesn’t value the additional mechanical benefits).

    And if he had a cheap watch everyone would ask why
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    StillWaters said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If you think the Tories are having trouble getting a half decent leader, spare a thought for Hezbollah....

    There’s definitely a Monty python sketch there - everyone denying that the chance to be Spartacus
    There are suggestions on X (cavaet emperor) that the long time deputy of Hezbollah has refused to take up leadership role.

    Naim Qassem, Deputy head of Hezbollah since 1991, not only refused to become the new head, but also resigned from his position and won't be affiliated with Hezbollah anymore 🤣 He was last seen heavily sweating and stressed in a video after Nasrallah's elimination.

    https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1843181833405780334
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1843289827904766450

    General election poll

    🔴 Trump 47%
    🔵 Harris 47%

    Last poll - 🔵 Harris +4

    YouGov (Yahoo) #B - LV - 10/4

    Research Co


    Harris 52%
    Trump 47%
    https://researchco.ca/2024/10/07/us-nationwide-oct2024/
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