Options
Cleverly becomes the favourite – politicalbetting.com

This is quite the turn up, I wasn’t expecting this but it is good news for those who followed my tip on Cleverly to win this at 7s.
1
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
And my wallet agrees.
Guardian live blog
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
Keir Starmer's net approval rating has fallen further in our latest tracker. It now sits at minus 33 points, which is a drop of 44 points since his post election high. Perhaps explains why this weekend's reset was necessary.
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1843277856300044705
LOOK AT THE CHART
That's hilarious. A Truss-like plunge and no obvious floor
Second place after the redistribution of Patel's votes wasn't good enough. To take an analogy from the erstwhile TV favourite "It's a Knockout", the right have played their joker and the centre-right are doing so tomorrow. (Insert witticism about "there are plenty more jokers still in the race" to taste.)
Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.
Jenrick is not a risk. He's all downside. Just LOOK at him, and LISTEN to him. He could be packaged in an aerosol as Voter Repellent.
Perhaps it is the latest YouGov national poll showing them level?
But TIPP, also today, shows Kamala 3% ahead nationally.
And Activote, also today, shows Kamala 2% ahead in North Carolina.
Noise I think.
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
Cleverly has less charisma than Sunak?
I mean, I get the dull managerialism criticism. But surely he can't have less charisma than the charisma-free Sunak?
One is that they will inadvertently appoint a mega-star contrary to expectations - as in a sense they did with Thatcher.
The other relies on both Labour being so bad and the other parties failing to capitalise on their awfulness that the Tories are in first place simply because they are the least bad. Which is a dismal prospect.
In a sense what 'should' be happening, with the Tories in useless mode and Labour lead footed and disappointing is a resurgence of the LDs - which is conspicuously not occurring.
If the polling error favours the Republicans, than it's President Trump. If it favours the Democrats, then it's President Harris.
And if there's no polling error, then it's going to be a very, very long night.
How many seats did RefUK win?
How many seats did the Lib Dems win?
Which is bigger?
eg Half the country - at least - wants zero net migration. Only Reform come close to that, on this major issue
Everyone shrugs, and goes back to their drinks
Instead of which, team idiot which is now in office thinks the future is giving the DfT more control via nationalisation.
Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.
It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.
I don't believe this "relaunch" will help Starmer. You can't relaunch a dud
"Strangeland by Jon Sopel review — the bathos of an ex-BBC man"
https://www.thetimes.com/article/3a3bbc7d-7778-404b-be31-bbc84aa57ec6?shareToken=557467c1331271032c703eb37b11c615
Also, this election was probably high tide for the Lib Dems, particularly in seat terms.
All the signs are that Reform will be growing strongly between now and 2028/9, particularly on the back of disaffected Labour votes.
That hole he dug himself over Huw Edwards was funny though.
The LDs also only gained half their seats from the Tories as the rightwing vote was split, with the Tory and Reform vote combined bigger than the vote for the winning LD candidate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
This is what we should have done. Offered the Chagossians - here in the UK and Mauritiius - a plebiscite and let THEM choose
1. Become full UK citizens, Chagos remains British, indeed it is incorporated into the UK as a democratic constituency. They can settle on any island apart from Diego Garcia. The UKG and the Chagossians together decide the future of the seas and its riches
2. What Labour did. Hand it all over to Mauritius (and China). No UK citizenship
I am pretty sure they would have chosen option 1. And then Britain would have kept the Chagos, kept the base, kept China at bay, and satisfied the Chagossians AND we would have then had a cast iron case to show the ICJ and the UN, "they have decided, that's democracy"
The more the Tories chase RefUK, the more RefUK voters they create.
Appeasement leads to defeat. Victory will only come through challenging them.
They can always rationalise away the defection from Team Bobby. Well, it wasn't so long ago that he was a remainy Cameroon. Not something you could ever accuse KB of being. And the ballot is secret anyway.
Wednesday will be interesting.
https://unherd.com/newsroom/blame-labour-policies-for-fuelling-populism/
I rejoin if he wins the leadership
For formal events where a suit or smarter appearance is required, I'll wear a Seiko or Orient worth £100-200 at best. Putting them on a nice aftermarket strap really makes them look smart.
I have some nice Swiss watches that never get worn, lest I get stabbed or my hand hacked off. Nice to own, but utterly impractical in a city like London - I've heard too many horror stories from friends who've been targeted.
"Sopel’s arched eyebrow over Trump’s America, especially on the BBC’s Americast podcast, won him many fans in Britain. But did it add to their understanding of what was happening there? His 40-page rehash of the January 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol building in Strangeland (a book, remember, that is supposed to be about “Britishness”) is telling. He calls it “the most shocking day of my journalistic career”. The day ended with Sopel tweeting a picture of a glass of red wine to tell his followers he was “fine”."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/telegraph-cartoons-october-2024/
That lifetime deal sounds great though! Do they still do them?
"Sopel’s observations are pure, uncut bathos. Big Ben is “an iconic timepiece”."
It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
The poll above is further evidence that the entire British nation are alt-right extremists who need to be cancelled for wasting time over a non story.
Auf denen zu lesen war, daß das Volk
Das Vertrauen der Regierung verscherzt habe
Who won the most votes in the election
Reform or the Lib Dems ?
Just to confirm I do not support Reform at all
They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.
Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
It seems the raid on pensions has stopped because of consequences (everyone would shift to salary sacrifice and taxing that would be problematic) and they've ruled out many of the large options. So what's left is wealth which unless you are talking houses is very easy to move round...
Heck we've had this conversation multiple times in the past and the end result has always been a tax based on the property value replacing council tax and stamp duty...
And yes I know some people on here prefer a land value tax - I just think replacing rates with something based on value is easier to implement and raises more..
My watch allows me to do what I want, pretty much. I wouldn't force anyone else to wear one, or tell people that they must get one. But neither is it, in my mind, a status symbol. It is simply a tool that does a job.
(Rolex makes an estimated 1m watches per year, and Toyota 10.7m cars in 2023).
When you say you can't buy one, its China....I believe 1/3 of Rolex's are sold in China and they have some stupid amount of registered dealers now.
But I can’t wait to see the net approval graph after it’s introduced…
I'm not certain that the vote would have gone that way. Quite a few of the Chagossians in Mauritius are said to be keen on being part of Mauritius.
We should have done the same in Hong Kong - held a referendum.
Yes its that bad. It’s like trying to get an allocation for a Porsche GT3 or a limited edition Ferrari.
And the inherent purpose of such things is to display status. Even with a functional watch you are displaying your disdain for display.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/02/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/
General election poll
🔴 Trump 47%
🔵 Harris 47%
Last poll - 🔵 Harris +4
YouGov (Yahoo) #B - LV - 10/4
I think there was a fairly recent case where a guy ended up dead after he was targeted for what his close associates believed was the legit one, but he only wore the super clone out and about.
The inherent purpose of my Apple Watch Ultra watch is not to display status. It's to track my running times, sleep quality and other health, and display OS Maps in hi-res on my watchface when I'm hiking.
It's about as far from an "attractive piece of jewellery" as you can get.
Not sure whether to cash out or hold now.
If Tugendhat is next out, Cleverly's potentially got the opportunity to deide if he faces Jenrick or Badenoch.
And if he had a cheap watch everyone would ask why
Naim Qassem, Deputy head of Hezbollah since 1991, not only refused to become the new head, but also resigned from his position and won't be affiliated with Hezbollah anymore 🤣 He was last seen heavily sweating and stressed in a video after Nasrallah's elimination.
https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1843181833405780334
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
https://researchco.ca/2024/10/07/us-nationwide-oct2024/