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The State of the Union, Week 5 – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    MaxPB said:

    I don't think he set out to be unpopular because of dodgy donations and freebies though. If he was unpopular because of delivering a big dose of horrible medicine then sure, but Labour haven't even really made any tough decisions other than the WFA withdrawal, there's at least 10-15x as many left before the next election if Labour are serious about fixing the NHS and public services because it involves mass public sector redundancies and spending cuts.
    Yes, exactly. If Labour had "set out to be unpopular" then why are they looking so totally panicked and frightened by the attack from all sides, and their plunging polling?

    They expected they would have to take tough economic choices, they certainly did not expect to be condemned as spiteful lying thieves in the first three months
  • Quite rightly too.

    Given how utterly incompetent the Tories had become that they launched the campaign banging on about National Service, there was absolutely no reason to listen.

    Now that doesn't mean Starmer gets a decade, he could be out after the same amount of time as Boris if he does badly, and Labour have no divine right to win the next election - but the Tories have no divine right to recover either.

    Sort your party out and give working people under the age of 68 a reason to vote for you. Until you do that, you don't deserve to be listened to.
    Finally, some common sense.
  • rcs1000 said:

    That strategy, by the ex-MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, has two problems:

    (1) It permanently creates a party to the Right of the Conservatives, with whom they will constantly fight for votes.

    (2) In Remainia, it it allows the LibDems and Labour to paint the Conservatives and Reform as one and the same, which will worsen tactical voting against them.

    My view is that the Conservative Party needs to extinguish Reform by (a) stealing their most popular policies, and (b) ensuring they don't get a significant local government base.
    I don't agree with your conclusion - there are places where the Tories are unlikely to recover, but Reform can win. What you're saying is like saying the Tories should aim to extinguish the Ulster Unionists. Why? What's the point?

    You are right about not having a big long-standing pact though - it bluntens the benefit of being two distinct parties. Any deal should be as informal and last minute as possible. Tactical voting advice might work better.
  • Cicero said:

    Yeah yeah. Whatever.
    Your idea of what passes for Conservative policies probably isn't the same as what it is for most Conservatives.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    He wouldn't have his problems as he would have made different choices
    Sure. Leaving personalities and politics aside and trying to view it objectively ( I know) you as a new leader were parachuted into any of the four parties, based on current voter preferences, party unity, seats in a five year Parliament and momentum you’d probably pick Labour, then the Lib Dem’s, then Reform and then the Tories.

  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    Jonathan said:

    I don’t think Starmer is trying to win votes right now. He has deliberately set out to be unpopular. Well, he’s achieved his objective. Played for and got.

    Will be interesting to see what happens next.
    He's not a believer in first impressions, then?
  • Leon said:

    Yes, exactly. If Labour had "set out to be unpopular" then why are they looking so totally panicked and frightened by the attack from all sides, and their plunging polling?

    They expected they would have to take tough economic choices, they certainly did not expect to be condemned as spiteful lying thieves in the first three months
    Hasn't he dropped by something like -49% in popularity over the last 3 months?

    I mean, that's pretty plunging. The maximum is -100% (where literally everyone hates you, including Victoria Starmer) so in theory he's still got some headroom left.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Are you saying he has set out to take over £100,000 of freebies and be involved with cronyism from day one, withdraw the WFP while caving to train drivers on £65,000 pa, reverse the decision on non doms, and protect his sons education by accepting a gift of the use of an 18 million pound townhouse is deliberate
    lol! Nicely done
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    ohnotnow said:

    Now I'm imagining a weekly PMQ's between Theresa and Keir. That would be... exciting viewing.
    The movable object versus the resistible force.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Hasn't he dropped by something like -49% in popularity over the last 3 months?

    I mean, that's pretty plunging. The maximum is -100% (where literally everyone hates you, including Victoria Starmer) so in theory he's still got some headroom left.
    Indeed. As I said the other day, he should be thankful for the example of Liz Truss. Otherwise he would be the world record breaker as "most unpopular PM in the shortest time"
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    Leon said:

    The ECHR interferes in numerous ways, its not just the dinghy people. It is stuffed with Woke lawyers and judges proactively making LAW not judgements - Jonathan Sumption is right. It is obscene that we can't deport murderers and rapists because "as they are rapists they will be in trouble back home". Give me strength

    If Britain is ever going to return to health we have to destroy the Blob and the ECHR is part of that nexus of lefty agencies, laws, treaties, NGOs, that blobbily squats upon us

    Fuck it. The ECHR is not Holy Writ. People said we could and should never leave the EU but we did, it can be done, and doing this thing won't be a fraction as painful as Brexit

    But you are right in one regard. This is necessary but not sufficient. We need something close to a revolution now, a Thatcherite rampage through the institutions, overturning the tables of the moralising moneychangers. Enuff
    The ruling earlier this year making a scientific impossibility a legal requirement was a particular lowlight.
  • Jonathan said:

    Sure. Leaving personalities and politics aside and trying to view it objectively ( I know) you as a new leader were parachuted into any of the four parties, based on current voter preferences, party unity, seats in a five year Parliament and momentum you’d probably pick Labour, then the Lib Dem’s, then Reform and then the Tories.

    Frankly I would be happy to lead a conservative party over the others and move them to the centre over the next 5 years
  • Cicero said:

    Oh come on. Jenrick is not offering a policy, he is offering a posture, like you do most of the time you are on here. However, you have license to posture and write provocative nonsense, because being court jester is kind of your job and a man has to eat and indeed drink to a reasonable standard.

    Jenrick and the other pantomime villains in the Tory leadership race do not have that license. Kings do not get to wear motely. This isn´t even remotely serious politics, and the Tories are no longer a serious political party if they go down this sub MAGA road. Even you must admit they lost the plot under Truss and instead of trying to get together a coherent set of actual, you know, *Conservative* policies, they have struck off further and further into tin foil hat land. JRM suggesting that the Tories stand down in 100 seats? Um the Tories currently hold only 121 seats, so this is basically delusion or a death wish. Actually scratch that, its Rees Mogg, so its probably both.

    This country is not going to elect a Tory party in thrall to this kind of entitled twattery. They have had two strikes already, if they can not or will not grow up, then the Lib Dems, a party with a large and growing national organisation and a boat load of new and very good MPs as well as loads more money, that will be eating their lunch, not Reform, which is a Putin compromised, Alt-media led chimera,
    Licence.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,667
    Leon said:

    The ECHR interferes in numerous ways, its not just the dinghy people. It is stuffed with Woke lawyers and judges proactively making LAW not judgements - Jonathan Sumption is right. It is obscene that we can't deport murderers and rapists because "as they are rapists they will be in trouble back home". Give me strength

    If Britain is ever going to return to health we have to destroy the Blob and the ECHR is part of that nexus of lefty agencies, laws, treaties, NGOs, that blobbily squats upon us

    Fuck it. The ECHR is not Holy Writ. People said we could and should never leave the EU but we did, it can be done, and doing this thing won't be a fraction as painful as Brexit

    But you are right in one regard. This is necessary but not sufficient. We need something close to a revolution now, a Thatcherite rampage through the institutions, overturning the tables of the moralising moneychangers. Enuff
    I think what we need to do is talk to the other major European countries who are all also now rethinking on illegal immigration, deportation and asylum seeking to reform the ECHR for the modern era and kill the idea that unelected judges can modify it at will. Fundamentally sovereignty must sit with voters and having unelected judges being able to just modify the remit of the ECHR is a pretty outrageous violation of democracy across all of Europe.

    Italy, France, Germany, Austria and many other European countries will be up for it too because the ECHR interferes in their own efforts to deport illegal and foreign criminals. Now would be the right time to do it too because Italy has got a right wing government, the French government has the fear of RN/Le Pen winning driving everything they do, Germany has got the fear of AfD etc...

    It could actually be one of those areas where the UK could take the lead and make proposals to the other major nations, draft changes in consultation with them and then ram them through by forcing countries using EU and NATO membership.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430

    If leaving the ECHR solved it I'd have no problem leaving the ECHR.

    Leaving the ECHR alone won't solve it. There are all sorts of UN conventions and international treaties we'd get caught up instead. And even if we did clear all that the Channel is pretty binary - UK or French waters - so we'd have to either ram them back into French seas over and over again until they got bored, or became casualties, ignore French sovereignty and dump them back at Dunkirk, or do a returns deal.

    It's a massive tangled ball of wool. Unpicking a simple peripheral thread isn't an answer.
    Hire the Libyan Coastguard.

    The refugees would Boojum it, mid Channel.

    The question then is the profit split between U.K. and the LC.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,394
    edited September 2024
    Talking about dodgy bribes

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-secretly-plotted-30million-sweeteners-33773985

    Civil servants went out offering £150,000 each to the first. 200 asylum seekers willing to go to Rwanda to make the scheme look like it was working
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,405
    rcs1000 said:

    That strategy, by the ex-MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, has two problems:

    (1) It permanently creates a party to the Right of the Conservatives, with whom they will constantly fight for votes.

    (2) In Remainia, it it allows the LibDems and Labour to paint the Conservatives and Reform as one and the same, which will worsen tactical voting against them.

    My view is that the Conservative Party needs to extinguish Reform by (a) stealing their most popular policies, and (b) ensuring they don't get a significant local government base.
    If the Conservatives want to destroy Reform, they should ensure that Rees-Mogg defects to them.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052
    Scott_xP said:

    @TelePolitics

    🔵 Rees-Mogg: Tories should step aside in 100 seats where Reform can win

    https://x.com/TelePolitics/status/1840814383993115039

    Labour and the LibDems very successfully carved up the electoral map between them without any of the complications of a formal pact. Tories and Reform UK need to learn to do the same. Not campaigning much in 100 seats will work much better for them.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,394
    Driver said:

    Absence making the heart grow fonder, I see.
    The one good thing Rishi did was call an election in July so little would/could get done until October
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,405
    ohnotnow said:

    My local GP surgery texted me recently about closing down for two days to do the upgrade from Windows XP. I'm hoping next time they print out a URL for me on a sheet of A4 rather than just email it to me that the upgrade was worth it.

    Snark aside, this is one of the concrete areas where Google's AI work seems to be paying off. No idea if the NHS or wider bodies will accept it - but they are showing concrete results in improving diagnosis from top to bottom.
    Top to bottom. Dandruff to colonoscopy.
  • eek said:

    The one good thing Rishi did was call an election in July so little would/could get done until October
    The way it is working out it was a master stroke
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    edited September 2024
    MaxPB said:

    I think what we need to do is talk to the other major European countries who are all also now rethinking on illegal immigration, deportation and asylum seeking to reform the ECHR for the modern era and kill the idea that unelected judges can modify it at will. Fundamentally sovereignty must sit with voters and having unelected judges being able to just modify the remit of the ECHR is a pretty outrageous violation of democracy across all of Europe.

    Italy, France, Germany, Austria and many other European countries will be up for it too because the ECHR interferes in their own efforts to deport illegal and foreign criminals. Now would be the right time to do it too because Italy has got a right wing government, the French government has the fear of RN/Le Pen winning driving everything they do, Germany has got the fear of AfD etc...

    It could actually be one of those areas where the UK could take the lead and make proposals to the other major nations, draft changes in consultation with them and then ram them through by forcing countries using EU and NATO membership.
    Yes. The blunt fact is that the hard right or even far right is advancing across Europe, with no signs of this surge coming to an end. If it continues we will see far right GOVERNMENTS in European capitals, much more radical than Meloni, and they will tear up the ECHR immediately, before moving on to bigger things. They are already tearing up the EU's asylum proposals

    Personally, I don't want a far right government in London, something much more radical than Reform. That would be bad. But the best way to avoid that is to do what the Social Democrats in Denmark have done, accepted the right has a strong case on migration/asylum, and adopted vastly tougher policies on these issues. The Danish Social Democrats have just won an election by doing that, thereby fending off much nastier forces

    That's the brutal choice. Grasp the nettle or allow the Fascists to win elections. Let's grasp the nettle
  • Ugh, Boris wishes he was Caesar.

    Boris Johnson: Rishi assassinated me like Brutus killed Caesar

    In the latest excerpt from his memoirs, the former PM accuses his chancellor of a plot ‘worse than a crime’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/30/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-brutus-caesar/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755

    If the Conservatives want to destroy Reform, they should ensure that Rees-Mogg defects to them.
    He's not a MP any more. Neither is Steve Baker, the only other ex-Conservative MP in this palaver who's impressed me.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,400

    Ugh, Boris wishes he was Caesar.

    Boris Johnson: Rishi assassinated me like Brutus killed Caesar

    In the latest excerpt from his memoirs, the former PM accuses his chancellor of a plot ‘worse than a crime’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/30/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-brutus-caesar/

    Boris remembering his salad days?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,667
    Leon said:

    Yes. The blunt fact is that the hard right or even far right is advancing across Europe, with no signs of this surge coming to an end. If it continues we will see far right GOVERNMENTS in European capitals, much more radical than Meloni, and they will tear up the ECHR immediately, before moving on to bigger things. They are already tearing up the EU's asylum proposals

    Personally, I don't want a far right government in London, something much more radical than Reform. That would be bad. But the best way to avoid that is to do what the Social Democrats in Denmark have done, accepted the right has a strong case on migration/asylum, and adopted vastly tougher policies on these issues. The Danish Social Democrats have just won an election by doing that, thereby fending off much nastier forces

    That's the brutal choice. Grasp the nettle or allow the Fascists to win elections. Let's grasp the nettle
    And this is why Labour should be making overtures on this now, make it the centrepiece of a 2029 election campaign that they reformed the ECHR and made it possible to stop the boats and send failed asylum seekers back and to deport foreign criminals and other illegal immigrants etc...

    But Labour haven't got a clue and Nige will set his sights on Labour next time because they will be the party that has been letting hundreds of thousands of illegals cross into the UK by boat for 5 years.
  • Leon said:

    Yes. The blunt fact is that the hard right or even far right is advancing across Europe, with no signs of this surge coming to an end. If it continues we will see far right GOVERNMENTS in European capitals, much more radical than Meloni, and they will tear up the ECHR immediately, before moving on to bigger things. They are already tearing up the EU's asylum proposals

    Personally, I don't want a far right government in London, something much more radical than Reform. That would be bad. But the best way to avoid that is to do what the Social Democrats in Denmark have done, accepted the right has a strong case on migration/asylum, and adopted vastly tougher policies on these issues. The Danish Social Democrats have just won an election by doing that, thereby fending off much nastier forces

    That's the brutal choice. Grasp the nettle or allow the Fascists to win elections. Let's grasp the nettle
    As Jenrick states, you need unanimity from all 46 states to reform it. I find that unlikely.

    Personally I am in favour of derogating/ignoring/fudging, but I admit that's hard with the UK legal establishment oriented toward a maximalist gold-plated approach. Jenrick says he has set out to persuade people that we must leave, and right now the argument looks persuasive. That's what politics is about - you decide what's right and you argue for your position.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,644

    Are you saying he has set out to take over £100,000 of freebies and be involved with cronyism from day one, withdraw the WFP while caving to train drivers on £65,000 pa, reverse the decision on non doms, and protect his sons education by accepting a gift of the use of an 18 million pound townhouse is deliberate
    Yes of course. It just like MUFC who have spent this season so far lulling the other teams into a false sense of security. It is all part of a cunning plan.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Truss is becoming box office.

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1840725806697337242

    The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.

    This is indeed extremely interesting news. Many have pondered a sensational return for Mary ‘Liz’ TRUSS - and who could blame them? The fact that she is out-booking the official runners and riders is telling. Maybe a new Trussian sunrise is just around the corner? Wow.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755
    edited September 2024

    If leaving the ECHR solved it I'd have no problem leaving the ECHR.

    Leaving the ECHR alone won't solve it. There are all sorts of UN conventions and international treaties we'd get caught up instead. And even if we did clear all that the Channel is pretty binary - UK or French waters - so we'd have to either ram them back into French seas over and over again until they got bored, or became casualties, ignore French sovereignty and dump them back at Dunkirk, or do a returns deal.
    That's my preference. The French won't do it voluntarily, so we need to give them a reason to do it involuntarily. Grounding Higgins boats full of refugees on French beaches will do the trick.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,400

    This is indeed extremely interesting news. Many have pondered a sensational return for Mary ‘Liz’ TRUSS - and who could blame them? The fact that she is out-booking the official runners and riders is telling. Maybe a new Trussian sunrise is just around the corner? Wow.
    She has to get back into the Commons first...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,667

    As Jenrick states, you need unanimity from all 46 states to reform it. I find that unlikely.

    Personally I am in favour of derogating/ignoring/fudging, but I admit that's hard with the UK legal establishment oriented toward a maximalist gold-plated approach. Jenrick says he has set out to persuade people that we must leave, and right now the argument looks persuasive. That's what politics is about - you decide what's right and you argue for your position.
    If the major nations in Europe presented reforms it would very quickly achieve unanimity because most of those countries in Eastern Europe rely on NATO or the EU. With Sweden now also in NATO they wouldn't be much of a blocker either. There are also big anti-illegal immigration pressures all over the continent, I think if the conversation was opened any dissent against plans presented will be to toughen them, rather than water anything down.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,360

    Top to bottom. Dandruff to colonoscopy.
    The blurb for BoJo's biography, I noticed today, describes it as a "Soup to Nuts" account. I know he was born in Manhattan, but since when did we import that phrase? Pretty sure most readers won't know it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755
    edited September 2024
    MaxPB said:

    And this is why Labour should be making overtures on this now, make it the centrepiece of a 2029 election campaign that they reformed the ECHR and made it possible to stop the boats and send failed asylum seekers back and to deport foreign criminals and other illegal immigrants etc...

    But Labour haven't got a clue and Nige will set his sights on Labour next time because they will be the party that has been letting hundreds of thousands of illegals cross into the UK by boat for 5 years.
    • Step 1: make the supreme court of military justice in the UK the National Security Council instead of the Supreme Court. Then actions of the military outside the UK jurisdiction are not justiciable
    • Step 2: intercept undocumented migrants in the Channel and transfer them to landing craft
    • Step 3: drive the landing craft onto a French beach and leave it there
    Having never come within UK jurisdiction, no treaties or laws need be changed.

    Remember what I said about warfare being a matter of changing the legal frame? You are thinking legislation, I'm thinking jurisdiction. Lawyers only act within a jurisdiction, so if it's outside UK jurisdiction (ie the three mile limit or whatever) then the lawyers cannot act.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,360
    viewcode said:

    • Step 1: make the supreme court of military justice in the UK the National Security Council instead of the Supreme Court. Then actions of the military outside the UK jurisdiction are not justiciable
    • Step 2: intercept undocumented migrants in the Channel and transfer them to landing craft
    • Step 3: drive the landing craft onto a French beach and leave it there
    Having never come within UK jurisdiction, no treaties or laws need be changed.
    All a bit "enemy combatants" that. Mind you, the french would do it if the roles were reversed.
  • carnforth said:

    The blurb for BoJo's biography, I noticed today, describes it as a "Soup to Nuts" account. I know he was born in Manhattan, but since when did we import that phrase? Pretty sure most readers won't know it.
    I heard it used in the City quite a bit working there 20+ years ago.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    The way it is working out it was a master stroke
    Indeed. Rishi’s genius ploy restricted Sir Keir to a parliamentary majority of just 174 seats.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    MaxPB said:

    And this is why Labour should be making overtures on this now, make it the centrepiece of a 2029 election campaign that they reformed the ECHR and made it possible to stop the boats and send failed asylum seekers back and to deport foreign criminals and other illegal immigrants etc...

    But Labour haven't got a clue and Nige will set his sights on Labour next time because they will be the party that has been letting hundreds of thousands of illegals cross into the UK by boat for 5 years.
    Labour are clueless, but they also have no desire to do any of this, anyway

    My guess is Starmer is quietly praying that tough EU action on EU borders will stem the tide of migrants who make it all the way to Calais

    That's possible. However it is also very possible that, as Europe swings to the hard right, tougher European laws will acually shunt MORE migrants towards pushover Britain, so it could actually get WORSE
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,644
    MaxPB said:

    If the major nations in Europe presented reforms it would very quickly achieve unanimity because most of those countries in Eastern Europe rely on NATO or the EU. With Sweden now also in NATO they wouldn't be much of a blocker either. There are also big anti-illegal immigration pressures all over the continent, I think if the conversation was opened any dissent against plans presented will be to toughen them, rather than water anything down.
    What would the critics like the law to say instead? (Generalised hand waving doesn't count).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,889
    Truss seems to be fascinating to a lot of people for some reason.
  • Except Richard I'm not shilling for Netanyahu, quite the opposite I've said I've no love lost for him and think he's a disgracefully bad leader who should be ousted and in prison.

    I have criticised Netanyahu for being too weak on Hamas, so you saying that he is, is not news to me, nor is it changing my mind for you to make the exact same points I'd already made.

    Netanyahu has been disgracefully weak in tackling Hamas and has stoked the conflict. I want a better leader who will end the conflict by ending Hamas.
    Weakness had nothing to do with it. That is you trying to fit the facts to your world view and coming up with the wrong answer. Netenyahu actively promoted Hamas including ensuring they received funding, knowing how extreme they were and wanting them to displace the Palestinian Authority as the main political leadership of the Palestinians. He didn't do this because he was weak. He did it because he knew it would result in terrorist attacks on Israeli citizens and destroy any chance of a peace accord. This is not the action of a weak man. It is the action of a criminal. Hamas in its current form is as much Netenyahu's creation as it is the Palestinian extremists.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Foxy said:

    She has to get back into the Commons first...
    Where there is a TRUSS, there is a way.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    MaxPB said:

    I think what we need to do is talk to the other major European countries who are all also now rethinking on illegal immigration, deportation and asylum seeking to reform the ECHR for the modern era and kill the idea that unelected judges can modify it at will. Fundamentally sovereignty must sit with voters and having unelected judges being able to just modify the remit of the ECHR is a pretty outrageous violation of democracy across all of Europe.

    Italy, France, Germany, Austria and many other European countries will be up for it too because the ECHR interferes in their own efforts to deport illegal and foreign criminals. Now would be the right time to do it too because Italy has got a right wing government, the French government has the fear of RN/Le Pen winning driving everything they do, Germany has got the fear of AfD etc...

    It could actually be one of those areas where the UK could take the lead and make proposals to the other major nations, draft changes in consultation with them and then ram them through by forcing countries using EU and NATO membership.
    I'm not sure how you do it, though - the "living instrument" doctrine is embedded in the entire system. You'd need to wipe it out and start again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,817
    Andy_JS said:

    Jenrick's latest gambit.

    "Migrant crime rate being covered up, says Robert Jenrick
    Tory leadership contender says public ‘deserves to know the truth’"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/30/migrant-crime-rate-is-being-covered-up-says-robert-jenrick/

    What about crimes by former cabinet ministers? Do we deserve to know the truth about those?

    Asking for a friend...
  • Foxy said:

    She has to get back into the Commons first...
    There's more chance of Anthony Eden making a comeback than there is Liz Truss.
  • Given the collapse in LAB's popularity I wouldn't be surprised if we see a very nervous Budget with lots of little changes eg CGT up 2% and tax on alcohol up by CPI + 5% but nothing which really makes a dramatic difference and which still ends up looking like a hotchpotch with no clear direction.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    carnforth said:

    The blurb for BoJo's biography, I noticed today, describes it as a "Soup to Nuts" account. I know he was born in Manhattan, but since when did we import that phrase? Pretty sure most readers won't know it.
    I have never heard it before in my life. Nor was I able to infer any meaning from it.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,644

    I heard it used in the City quite a bit working there 20+ years ago.
    Found IIRC in the writings of P G Wodehouse. Somewhere in Jeeves I think (though Jeeves himself would of course never use such a phrase).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,817

    Ugh, Boris wishes he was Caesar.

    Not surprised. He's never seen a woman without wishing he could seize her.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Andy_JS said:

    Truss seems to be fascinating to a lot of people for some reason.

    She is a truly extraordinary woman.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,617
    Leon said:

    Bluntly put: my mother is quite gaga. Phone calls can be.... a trial... visits worse...

    Terrible confession: the only advantage to her dementia is that when I do call I remind her that I called her "a few days ago", when in reality it is about six weeks since the last call; and she entirely believes this, so I don't have to feel guilty

    Eeek. I'm a bad person
    Sorry to hear that. Nothing much to say except dementia is an absolute bastard. There's no good way to manage it, just lots of bad ones.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,817

    There's more chance of Anthony Eden making a comeback than there is Liz Truss.
    Robert Blake wrote of Eden's 1955 election victory, 'Seldom can the euphoria of success have been followed so swiftly by the disillusionment of failure.'

    But of course, Blake didn't live to see Truss...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Foxy said:

    She has to get back into the Commons first...
    It will trigger many here. But we’re far more likely to see a second coming of Boris (sic) than Truss or Cameron.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,617

    I have never heard it before in my life. Nor was I able to infer any meaning from it.
    Refers to a meal.
    American joke books from the 1960s featured a surprising amount in my childhood, so I'm quite aware of it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,667
    Leon said:

    Labour are clueless, but they also have no desire to do any of this, anyway

    My guess is Starmer is quietly praying that tough EU action on EU borders will stem the tide of migrants who make it all the way to Calais

    That's possible. However it is also very possible that, as Europe swings to the hard right, tougher European laws will acually shunt MORE migrants towards pushover Britain, so it could actually get WORSE
    That will make it worse as they all rush to Calais to avoid being deported back to Africa, Pakistan, Syria etc...
  • Andy_JS said:

    Truss seems to be fascinating to a lot of people for some reason.

    I guess there are a few reasons.

    Firstly, she was a spectacularly short-lived PM. Not just one of several failed PMs in history, but sui generis.

    Secondly, because she was so brief, some people can fantasise that shed have been wonderful if only the deep state hadn't etc.

    Thirdly, she keeps opening her mouth.
  • MaxPB said:

    If the major nations in Europe presented reforms it would very quickly achieve unanimity because most of those countries in Eastern Europe rely on NATO or the EU. With Sweden now also in NATO they wouldn't be much of a blocker either. There are also big anti-illegal immigration pressures all over the continent, I think if the conversation was opened any dissent against plans presented will be to toughen them, rather than water anything down.
    The status of the convention as a 'living instrument' that means judges can effectively expand their own powers at will, and do stupid things like tell the Swiss Government it's not doing enough on Net Zero because a bunch of idiots claimed it was 'discrimination' is a core principle of the ECHR, and I find it implausible that there will be unanimity amongst all signatories to scrap that.

    I am not out and out arguing that we must leave, but I respect the view of those who've concluded we must, and if reforming the convention is anything like 'reforming the EU from the inside'; it's not worth the effort. Certainly it looks unlikely to be able to deal with the migrant crisis we face *now*.

    However, I don't have a closed mind on the issue. My instinct is toward fudge and compromise as I said, because I don't want a new Tory Government to spend all its political capital leaving something, that will cause massive opposition and brickbats for no reason.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Cicero said:

    Yeah yeah. Whatever.
    I could conceive of the current government being wiped out at the next election. Very easily.

    The trouble is - what replaces them?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,972
    edited September 2024
    MaxPB said:

    That will make it worse as they all rush to Calais to avoid being deported back to Africa, Pakistan, Syria etc...
    And the French will play Nelson back at the Brits: "We see no ships boats..."
  • Indeed. Rishi’s genius ploy restricted Sir Keir to a parliamentary majority of just 174 seats.
    Now 157 and a large majority did not save the conservative party at the following election
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,972

    Where there is a TRUSS, there is a way.
    Where there is a TRUSS, there is a hernia...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Cookie said:

    Sorry to hear that. Nothing much to say except dementia is an absolute bastard. There's no good way to manage it, just lots of bad ones.
    It's grim. No way around it

    I'm at that awkward stage in life when the parents are going mental or conking out, and at the same time kids are going to uni and fledging, which is also pretty traumatic (albeit much more positive)

    Hard pounding, gentlemen, hard pounding

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,617

    Labour and the LibDems very successfully carved up the electoral map between them without any of the complications of a formal pact. Tories and Reform UK need to learn to do the same. Not campaigning much in 100 seats will work much better for them.
    Realistically, the Tories aren't going to be campaigning much in Barnsley and Hull.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,277
    Evening all :)

    On the general political point, all incumbent Governments of whatever stripe have suffered post-Covid. The Austrian election is just another example - the OVP-Green coalition lost 30 seats (from 97 to 67).

    Denmark was quoted by @Leon but the most recent Voxmeter poll has the governing coalition of Social Democrats, Venstre and Moderates down from 50% to 35% with the main winner NOT the Denmark Democrats but the Green Left so perhaps Denmark will be the exception.

    Norway is like Austria with the main Conservative Party facing a challenge from the Progress Party while the governing Social Democrats try to recover ground lost.

    Germany will likely see the CDU/CSU top the poll and go back into Government but with whom is less clear. It's quite possible the FDP will lose all their seats and the other parties in the current governing coalition will go backward. It may be the Union and AfD will together poll over 50% but it seems Merz is unwilling to work with the AfD so coalition building will be interesting.

    The question will be how the successors to the Governments which fell as a result of the post-Covid and Ukraine war experience will themselves fare over the next 2-4 years before they also face elections (Italy doesn't vote again until 2027).

    Populism is easy in Opposition - you can criticise ad infinitum and promise the sun, the moon and the stars but in Government it's time to deliver. For example, the polls are currently showing the Dutch coalition has already lost its majority in Parliament with the main losers the more junior partners.

    The "junior partner problem" which we saw in the 2010s is prevalent across western European politics - look at the Centre Party in Norway, the NSC in Holland, the Greens in Austria and even VOX in Spain.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,400
    ydoethur said:

    Robert Blake wrote of Eden's 1955 election victory, 'Seldom can the euphoria of success have been followed so swiftly by the disillusionment of failure.'

    But of course, Blake didn't live to see Truss...
    Though the Tories did win the next GE...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Leon said:

    It's grim. No way around it

    I'm at that awkward stage in life when the parents are going mental or conking out, and at the same time kids are going to uni and fledging, which is also pretty traumatic (albeit much more positive)

    Hard pounding, gentlemen, hard pounding

    A like feels wrong.

    “A little bit off” - by Five Finger Death Punch, perhaps that meets the case….
  • I could conceive of the current government being wiped out at the next election. Very easily.

    The trouble is - what replaces them?
    Well, it wont be Jenrick. He'll be out in two years.

    He is not up to it.
  • Sky reporting Israel has informed the US a ground incursion is imminent
  • Jeez. My local foreacast says there is a 70-95% chance it will rain for another solid 24 hours. Heavily.


    This is getting biblical.

    I have two buckets in use now.

    I have no more buckets. :disappointed:
  • Andy_JS said:

    Truss seems to be fascinating to a lot of people for some reason.

    Its human nature to stare at a car crash.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,904

    Weakness had nothing to do with it. That is you trying to fit the facts to your world view and coming up with the wrong answer. Netenyahu actively promoted Hamas including ensuring they received funding, knowing how extreme they were and wanting them to displace the Palestinian Authority as the main political leadership of the Palestinians. He didn't do this because he was weak. He did it because he knew it would result in terrorist attacks on Israeli citizens and destroy any chance of a peace accord. This is not the action of a weak man. It is the action of a criminal. Hamas in its current form is as much Netenyahu's creation as it is the Palestinian extremists.
    Hard to see it stopping now, Lebanon about to get a pounding. These boys have their minds set now it is no more mister nice guy, Iran will be bricking it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,889

    I could conceive of the current government being wiped out at the next election. Very easily.

    The trouble is - what replaces them?
    A Lab/LD/Green coalition is possible. At the moment they hold 487 seats between them.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,617
    Leon said:

    It's grim. No way around it

    I'm at that awkward stage in life when the parents are going mental or conking out, and at the same time kids are going to uni and fledging, which is also pretty traumatic (albeit much more positive)

    Hard pounding, gentlemen, hard pounding

    I've managed to go a good twenty years without anyone I love dying or getting seriously ill or really having to be worried about in any way. But I am grimly aware of my luck and that filial responsibilities are large in my future. My parents too have both been through this.
    All I can offer is that none of the hard, unrewarding times my parents went through with their parents before they died diminished the fondness of the memories they now have of them when they were alive.
    It's hard work and I can only sympathise.
  • Sky reporting Israel has informed the US a ground incursion is imminent

    Sky reporting it has begun
  • Sky reporting Israel has informed the US a ground incursion is imminent

    Iran is seriously on the back foot now.

    How will they respond in their desperation?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,904

    I have never heard it before in my life. Nor was I able to infer any meaning from it.
    you have not lived pal, get off your dummies phone and see the world.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,889

    Iran is seriously on the back foot now.

    How will they respond in their desperation?

    Probably by oppressing their own people even more than they already do.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755
    edited September 2024
    You may recall one of the quiet triumphs of the previous Conservative government, the constant opening of nice new train stations. The latest is Ashley Down, and inevitably Geoff Marshall was there https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fZr3lIMX78
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,904

    Iran is seriously on the back foot now.

    How will they respond in their desperation?

    their bluff is called , their tea is out now.
  • Weakness had nothing to do with it. That is you trying to fit the facts to your world view and coming up with the wrong answer. Netenyahu actively promoted Hamas including ensuring they received funding, knowing how extreme they were and wanting them to displace the Palestinian Authority as the main political leadership of the Palestinians. He didn't do this because he was weak. He did it because he knew it would result in terrorist attacks on Israeli citizens and destroy any chance of a peace accord. This is not the action of a weak man. It is the action of a criminal. Hamas in its current form is as much Netenyahu's creation as it is the Palestinian extremists.
    I said he was weak on Hamas, not that he was a weak man. He was.

    It is extreme to suggest Hamas is Netanyahu's creation though, it was under Ehud Olmert who took over from Sharon who had unilaterally withdrawn from Gaza, that Hamas took over Gaza. Hamas where who they were, and were in power, before Netanyahu won office in recent times.

    Netanyahu was completely wrong to underestimate Hamas and criminally wrong to not exert all pressure on them from the start. That he criminally underestimated them and facilitated them in the past does not make it any less right to seek to defeat them today though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Cookie said:

    I've managed to go a good twenty years without anyone I love dying or getting seriously ill or really having to be worried about in any way. But I am grimly aware of my luck and that filial responsibilities are large in my future. My parents too have both been through this.
    All I can offer is that none of the hard, unrewarding times my parents went through with their parents before they died diminished the fondness of the memories they now have of them when they were alive.
    It's hard work and I can only sympathise.
    I was the same, a long long period of untarnished good luck, 15-20 years. Now a lot tougher

    But it could be far worse, of course

    I try to remember the Buddhist saying: what is the definition of happiness? Grandfather dies, father dies, child dies - in that order
  • Cookie said:

    Realistically, the Tories aren't going to be campaigning much in Barnsley and Hull.
    How much campaigning are they doing at the moment?

    The Lib-Lab carveup is much easier to manage because the LibDem campaign is predominantly powered by sandal leather- a ground war of attrition, pushing a billion Focus leaflets (Do they still use that branding? They're not really a thing round these parts) through letterboxes. If you are in a seat they want to win, you know about it.

    Neither the Conservatives nor Reform have really gone in for that recently. Conservatives have always been a bit sniffy about that sort of thing, and now they don't really have enough bodies to do it anyway. Reform simply haven't been interested, which is why they turned more votes than the LibDems into far fewer seats.

  • Andy_JS said:

    Probably by oppressing their own people even more than they already do.
    Maybe the peeps will seize this unique opportunity and throw the clerics out?

    No member of Iranian high command can be sleeping well at the moment.
  • Well, it wont be Jenrick. He'll be out in two years.

    He is not up to it.
    Trouble is- who is?
  • Just seen Lammy is calling for a ceasefire again.

    What a joke this government is on this matter.

    Purely playing for domestic audience, no interest in seeing Hamas and Hezbollah defeated whatsoever.

    A ceasefire and Hamas and Hezbollah surviving intact serves nobodies interests and just guarantees its a matter of when, not if, the cycle of violence continues.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Trouble is- who is?
    Maybe the answer is staring us in the face?

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/02/11/12997944-6984377-image-a-2_1556791577546.jpg
  • eekeek Posts: 29,394
    https://xkcd.com/2992/

    THE UK SHUT DOWN THEIR LAST COAL POWER PLANT TODAY, WHICH MEANS THAT OVER THE COURSE OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, THEY
    DUG UP AND BURNED AN AVERAGE OF 3 INCHES OF THEIR COUNTRY.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824

    I said he was weak on Hamas, not that he was a weak man. He was.

    It is extreme to suggest Hamas is Netanyahu's creation though, it was under Ehud Olmert who took over from Sharon who had unilaterally withdrawn from Gaza, that Hamas took over Gaza. Hamas where who they were, and were in power, before Netanyahu won office in recent times.

    Netanyahu was completely wrong to underestimate Hamas and criminally wrong to not exert all pressure on them from the start. That he criminally underestimated them and facilitated them in the past does not make it any less right to seek to defeat them today though.
    You are being generous: Israel (Netanyahu) sent money to Hamas because he wanted them to them, not the Palestinian Authority, to be in power. They funded Hamas. And that has been extensively documented in the Israeli press.

    Now, I wouldn't go as far as Richard in claiming that Israel wanted Hamas to attack Israel. But I do think it was in the interests of the Netanyahu administration propped up by Settler parties, to claim that the Palestinians were so extreme that a Two State solution was impossible. And they achieved this by undermining the more moderate elements in Palestine, and funding the more extreme ones.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,947
    edited September 2024

    Just seen Lammy is calling for a ceasefire again.

    What a joke this government is on this matter.

    Purely playing for domestic audience, no interest in seeing Hamas and Hezbollah defeated whatsoever.

    A ceasefire and Hamas and Hezbollah surviving intact serves nobodies interests and just guarantees its a matter of when, not if, the cycle of violence continues.

    I said this very early on, this time is different. People said Israel would have a month or so to batter Hamas then the Americans would tell them to pack it in and that would be that. We are now 11 months in and if anything Israel are escalating, Lammy can spout anything he likes, they aren't going to take a blind bit of notice of him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,947
    edited September 2024
    The new grand wizard of the Hellbozah doing his zoom rant from his closet was looking like Prince Andrew getting grilled by Emily Mathis, sweating like a man who once visited Woking Pizza Express.
  • Trouble is- who is?
    No one knows.


  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    Just seen Lammy is calling for a ceasefire again.

    What a joke this government is on this matter.

    Purely playing for domestic audience, no interest in seeing Hamas and Hezbollah defeated whatsoever.

    A ceasefire and Hamas and Hezbollah surviving intact serves nobodies interests and just guarantees its a matter of when, not if, the cycle of violence continues.

    How the hell do you defeat an ideology? Bombing the fuck out of is like throwing a massive tank of gasoline over a fire.

    Israel's actions are making its own people less safe, and much less safe.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,400

    The new grand wizard of the Hellbozah doing his zoom rant from his closet was looking like Prince Andrew getting grilled by Emily Mathis, sweating like a man who once visited Woking Pizza Express.

    So, not sweaty at all?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,617
    tyson said:

    How the hell do you defeat an ideology? Bombing the fuck out of is like throwing a massive tank of gasoline over a fire.

    Israel's actions are making its own people less safe, and much less safe.

    How do you coexist peacefully with a neighbour committed to your removal from the map?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,617
    Slightly surprised this doesn't contravene some civil service code:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/30/sue-gray-took-free-football-tickets-labour-gifts/
  • Foxy said:

    So, not sweaty at all?
    You didn't get the memo, that mystery condition fixed itself, hence why he was sweating like a mo-fo during his interview with Emily.
  • I said this very early on, this time is different. People said Israel would have a month or so to batter Hamas then the Americans would tell them to pack it in and that would be that. We are now 11 months in and if anything Israel are escalating, Lammy can spout anything he likes, they aren't going to take a blind bit of notice of him.
    Seems Biden has called for a ceasefire and Israel is not listening

    If they won't listen to the US they are not going to listen to the UK, especially as Lammy announced a weapons embargo on Israel and as a result Netanyahu refused to meet Starmer at the UN this weekend
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,947
    edited September 2024

    Seems Biden has called for a ceasefire and Israel is not listening

    If they won't listen to the US they are not going to listen to the UK, especially as Lammy announced a weapons embargo on Israel and as a result Netanyahu refused to meet Starmer at the UN this weekend
    Israel have basically called US bluff. Now once the election is over that might change, maybe that is why Israel are going full pelt at the moment, because Biden administration is stuck between rock and a hard place domestically.
  • Cookie said:

    Slightly surprised this doesn't contravene some civil service code:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/30/sue-gray-took-free-football-tickets-labour-gifts/

    Just adds to the sleeze story
This discussion has been closed.