Jenrick remains the strong favourite – politicalbetting.com

System · September 23

Jenrick remains the strong favourite – politicalbetting.com

There was some slight movement away from Jenrick over the weekend following the revelations about one of his donors but he has largely recovered over on Betfair.

Read the full story here

malcolmg · September 23

First

Stuartinromford · September 23

That would be insane, wouldn't it?

Partly because of his fundamental Jenrickness, but also that 75k donation from... who?

ETA: most of the action on freebiegate has come from the press, not Conservative politicians. Perhaps they know that there is a can of worms they don't really want opened.

RochdalePioneers · September 23

Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...

Nigelb · September 23

Stuartinromford said:
That would be insane, wouldn't it?

Partly because of his fundamental Jenrickness, but also that 75k donation from... who?

ETA: most of the action on freebiegate has come from the press, not Conservative politicians. Perhaps they know that there is a can of worms they don't really want opened.

Jenrick as leader of the opposition to a Starmer government which fails to achieve its aims to address the country's problems would make for a very interesting next election.

Which would be minor consolation for the state we'd be in by then.

Sandpit · September 23

Lay the favourite!

Stuartinromford · September 23

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...

In a way, the government's current problems make the arrogance situation a bit worse. One of the attractions of Conservatives at their best is confidence and swagger, but it can go too far.

Look at the comments here over the weekend. A lot of Conservatives seem convinced that 2029 is in the bag, in which case they can choose the leader they want rather than one chosen to please the wider electorate.

I wonder if '79 to '83 is the temple?

Morris_Dancer · September 23

Good morning, everyone.

Absolutely pissing it down. Hope it ends soon. In the next hour and a half I have to go out twice...

DavidL · September 23

Nigelb said:

Stuartinromford said:
That would be insane, wouldn't it?

Partly because of his fundamental Jenrickness, but also that 75k donation from... who?

ETA: most of the action on freebiegate has come from the press, not Conservative politicians. Perhaps they know that there is a can of worms they don't really want opened.
Jenrick as leader of the opposition to a Starmer government which fails to achieve its aims to address the country's problems would make for a very interesting next election.

Which would be minor consolation for the state we'd be in by then.

Your last sentence is spot on. I genuinely and sincerely wish this government well. We are in a big enough mess without someone making it worse.
I am somewhat pessimistic, especially about Reeves, but I would be delighted to be proven wrong.

Scott_xP · September 23

@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143

TimS · September 23

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143

Funny they all still call it the “mini budget”. A term never used about any other budget before or since.

MarqueeMark · September 23

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...

Is it because Jenrick is the personification of Alan B'Stard?

Nigelb · September 23

MarqueeMark said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...
Is it because Jenrick is the personification of Alan B'Stard?

Is he really that charismatic ?

Scott_xP · September 23

TimS said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
Funny they all still call it the “mini budget”. A term never used about any other budget before or since.

"Omnishambles" was already taken and "Catastrophuck" isn't broadcast friendly...

Taz · September 23

Tory leadership campaigns just seem to go on and on an on, like the old Ariston ad but more tedious.

Can';t say I know a great deal about Jenrick, rather like the general public.

DavidL · September 23

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143

The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.

BatteryCorrectHorse · September 23

The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?

Casino_Royale · September 23

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143

I think it was such a traumatic event for her that the only way she can cope and process with it is to hunker and double-down and convince herself she was right all along.

Sandpit · September 23

Taz said:
Tory leadership campaigns just seem to go on and on an on, like the old Ariston ad but more tedious.

Can';t say I know a great deal about Jenrick, rather like the general public.

I’m not even sure I could pick out Robert Jenrick from a police lineup, and I pay way more attention to politics than the average man in the street.

DavidL · September 23

Taz said:
Tory leadership campaigns just seem to go on and on an on, like the old Ariston ad but more tedious.

Can';t say I know a great deal about Jenrick, rather like the general public.

He painted over murals designed to cheer up frightened refugee children in case they felt welcome.

What more do you need to know?

Stuartinromford · September 23

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...
Is it because Jenrick is the personification of Alan B'Stard?
Is he really that charismatic ?

No, which makes matters a lot worse

Actual Alan B'Stard... horrible, but with verve and swagger. Women want to be with him, men want to be him. See also: Lord Flashheart.

Jenrick is somehow a nerdy cosplay of a Rik Mayall character. Which keeps the bad bits but loses the attractive bits.

Cookie · September 23

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?

But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.

DavidL · September 23

Sandpit said:

Taz said:
Tory leadership campaigns just seem to go on and on an on, like the old Ariston ad but more tedious.

Can';t say I know a great deal about Jenrick, rather like the general public.

I’m not even sure I could pick out Robert Jenrick from a police lineup, and I pay way more attention to politics than the average man in the street.

Just pick the smarmiest one. Good bet you’ll get it right.

Stuartinromford · September 23

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
I think it was such a traumatic event for her that the only way she can cope and process with it is to hunker and double-down and convince herself she was right all along.

And the way to do that processing is regular hour-long appointments with a therapist, not in public.

I know that she is no longer a Conservative MP, and that's probably for the best all round. But that's not really sufficient distance for the party.

HYUFD · September 23

I suspect it will be Jenrick but I think it would be closer than expected between him and Tugendhat or Cleverly amongst the Tory membership.

Amongst Tory MPs if Cleverly or Tugendhat goes out next as expected then their support largely transfers to the other so one of them may even beat Jenrick with MPs in the final MPs ballot. Badenoch I expect to come third

Scott_xP · September 23

@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...

eek · September 23

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.

The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.

algarkirk · September 23

Jenrick will probably win, but Cleverly is value. Reasoning: Only one of Jenrick and Badenoch can make the last two (maths of MPs). so Badenoch is too short. Cleverly makes the last two because Mr Hat won't. Once there Jenrick has less than 93% and Cleverly more than a 7% chance of winning. Of the two he is less boring, and can present better as the mediator between the factions.

(Politically, no candidates are remotely good enough, but that's another matter),

HYUFD · September 23

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...
In a way, the government's current problems make the arrogance situation a bit worse. One of the attractions of Conservatives at their best is confidence and swagger, but it can go too far.

Look at the comments here over the weekend. A lot of Conservatives seem convinced that 2029 is in the bag, in which case they can choose the leader they want rather than one chosen to please the wider electorate.

I wonder if '79 to '83 is the temple?

Michael Foot had a poll lead by the end of 1980, before the Falklands and SDP helped save Thatcher

Theuniondivvie · September 23

Sandpit said:

Taz said:
Tory leadership campaigns just seem to go on and on an on, like the old Ariston ad but more tedious.

Can';t say I know a great deal about Jenrick, rather like the general public.

I’m not even sure I could pick out Robert Jenrick from a police lineup, and I pay way more attention to politics than the average man in the street.

He’s the one with the dead eyes of a psychopath.

Ok, I accept that doesn’t really narrow it down.

eek · September 23

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
I think it was such a traumatic event for her that the only way she can cope and process with it is to hunker and double-down and convince herself she was right all along.
And the way to do that processing is regular hour-long appointments with a therapist, not in public.

I know that she is no longer a Conservative MP, and that's probably for the best all round. But that's not really sufficient distance for the party.

The problem is that every so often she is going to pop-up on TV, say at Remembrance Day and people think

1)who is she?
2) oh yes, she's the reason why I don't vote Conservative.

Edit - what odds can I get on a late November 2028 election...

Dopermean · September 23

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.

Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.

Malmesbury · September 23

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...
In a way, the government's current problems make the arrogance situation a bit worse. One of the attractions of Conservatives at their best is confidence and swagger, but it can go too far.

Look at the comments here over the weekend. A lot of Conservatives seem convinced that 2029 is in the bag, in which case they can choose the leader they want rather than one chosen to please the wider electorate.

I wonder if '79 to '83 is the temple?
Michael Foot had a poll lead by the end of 1980, before the Falklands and SDP helped save Thatcher

Before he oversaw the writing of the manifesto that became known as "The Longest Suicide Note In British Political History".

These were the days when hilarious characters at the Labour conference didn't just suggest leaving the EEC and NATO - they wanted to join COMECON!

eek · September 23

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.

How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?

HYUFD · September 23

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...

Not entirely true, Farage would clearly prefer to face Tugendhat or Cleverly as Tory leader than Jenrick
or Badenoch. Even if Starmer and Davey would prefer to face Jenrick or Badenoch than Cleverly or Tugendhat

eek · September 23

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...

The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...

Stuartinromford · September 23

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...
In a way, the government's current problems make the arrogance situation a bit worse. One of the attractions of Conservatives at their best is confidence and swagger, but it can go too far.

Look at the comments here over the weekend. A lot of Conservatives seem convinced that 2029 is in the bag, in which case they can choose the leader they want rather than one chosen to please the wider electorate.

I wonder if '79 to '83 is the temple?
Michael Foot had a poll lead by the end of 1980, before the Falklands and SDP helped save Thatcher

That was a lead Foot inherited from Callaghan, who took the lead within a couple of months of the 1979 election.

Eyeballing the wikiworm graph,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election

November 1980 is pretty much when things started going south for Labour.

And yes, a split side loses to a united side. (And the geography of Lib/Lab votes means that they are effectively united.) Whoever can stick the right back together without causing the remaining centrists to break off is very very clever indeed.

Malmesbury · September 23

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...

It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.

eek · September 23

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.

Is the view special - nope, so build...

Literally my objections when it comes to planning are

1) does it directly impact someone?

if No it can be built.

Cookie · September 23

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.

That's getting very close to the 'people who criticise Labour = Tories' fallacy.

Big_G_NorthWales · September 23

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.

Good morning

And some of the biggest critics are coming from within Labour

More in common apparently polls this morning that 60% expect Labour to lose the next GE

52/48% believed that Starmer would not lead into the next GE

It also found 17% regretted voting Labour

Starmer ratings also fallen 31% from +11 to minus -20

It also said Labour would need 36% of the popular vote to retain power and even lose without losing a single vote from GE24

Malmesbury · September 23

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.

It's interesting to see how this works in France. Because local taxes go through the Mayor's office, it does tend to attract a certain kind of... entrepreneur. As in "If I grow my little town, I have more votes, because I can hand out more money..."

This of course has downsides. But it puts a heavy thumb in favour of stuff happening - if you're are onside with the Mayor.

Taz · September 23

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...
Not entirely true, Farage would clearly prefer to face Tugendhat or Cleverly as Tory leader than Jenrick
or Badenoch. Even if Starmer and Davey would prefer to face Jenrick or Badenoch than Cleverly or Tugendhat

So what is best for the Tories, to try to neuter Reform from the right to become, once again, the dominant party on the right of politics, or to try to tackle Labour and the Lib Dems and regain seats lost to them and not focus on Reform.

DavidL · September 23

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.

Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?

eek · September 23

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?

Because

1) Rishi didn't allow early access
2) Rishi announced the election when no-one was expecting it
3) the OBR has a massive lead time so it couldn't be any earlier given 1 and 2.

Taz · September 23

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...

Also the fact Newcastle has done very little to expand theirs too. We are just told have a few more buses on already clogged roads. Although the New Mayor is keen on this to and seems to get what is needed for growth.

Malmesbury · September 23

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Good morning

And some of the biggest critics are coming from within Labour

More in common apparently polls this morning that 60% expect Labour to lose the next GE

52/48% believed that Starmer would not lead into the next GE

It also found 17% regretted voting Labour

Starmer ratings also fallen 31% from +11 to minus -20

It also said Labour would need 36% of the popular vote to retain power and even lose without losing a single vote from GE24

All the Labour MPs and Unionists at the Labour conference criticising the government are hard right Tories/Reform. Didn't you get the memo?

Dopermean · September 23

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Taz said:
Tory leadership campaigns just seem to go on and on an on, like the old Ariston ad but more tedious.

Can';t say I know a great deal about Jenrick, rather like the general public.

I’m not even sure I could pick out Robert Jenrick from a police lineup, and I pay way more attention to politics than the average man in the street.
Just pick the smarmiest one. Good bet you’ll get it right.

Is this the Badenoch backlash? The belated realization that only one of Jenrick or Badenoch will make the final 2.
My money has gone on trading bets on Cleverly / Tugendhat.

Selebian · September 23

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...

I'm actually not. I want a competent opposition and, while I'd like* to think it was possible that the Conservative party, as it has become, fades off into the sunset and the Lib Dems become the official opposition, I don't really think that will happen.

*Actually, I'm not sure I would like that. I'm as woke a centrist dad as they come, but a FPTP choice between Lab and LD, even if the LDs went a bit more to the right on economics, would leave a huge part of the more traditionalist/small 'c' conservative part of the electorate with little voice and I don't think that would be a good thing. In that situation, we'd have even more need for PR.

Big_G_NorthWales · September 23

Malmesbury said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Good morning

And some of the biggest critics are coming from within Labour

More in common apparently polls this morning that 60% expect Labour to lose the next GE

52/48% believed that Starmer would not lead into the next GE

It also found 17% regretted voting Labour

Starmer ratings also fallen 31% from +11 to minus -20

It also said Labour would need 36% of the popular vote to retain power and even lose without losing a single vote from GE24
All the Labour MPs and Unionists at the Labour conference criticising the government are hard right Tories/Reform. Didn't you get the memo?

Indeed and desperate

Sandpit · September 23

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?

There’s a lot of HNWs who have heard enough and aren’t waiting for the actual budget.

Mostly people no-one has heard of, quietly running their hedge fund in Mayfair but contributing tens of millions in taxes, hearing talk of punitive 45% CGT rates and not wanting to hang around to find out.

In totally unrelated news, Singapore looked very attractive on TV yesterday for the F1 race.

Big_G_NorthWales · September 23

Taz said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...
Not entirely true, Farage would clearly prefer to face Tugendhat or Cleverly as Tory leader than Jenrick
or Badenoch. Even if Starmer and Davey would prefer to face Jenrick or Badenoch than Cleverly or Tugendhat
So what is best for the Tories, to try to neuter Reform from the right to become, once again, the dominant party on the right of politics, or to try to tackle Labour and the Lib Dems and regain seats lost to them and not focus on Reform.

I haven't commented on the conservative leadership campaign but it does seem that the relationship between the conservatives and Reform will be interesting going forward whoever wins

Stuartinromford · September 23

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.

It's the Janet Slimfast problem, as James Sean Dickson puts it. Or, more charitably, it's about time horizons.

If you have many more years on this mortal coil, growth is good, it pays for nice things. If you don't, the calculation of "inconvenience and expense and ugliness now vs. benefits over decades" works differently. The "there's enough to see me out" drug is damn potent.

We've not had economic growth for ages because, when push comes to shove, not enough people have really wanted it.

Dopermean · September 23

eek said:

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?

Fair point, or Rothermere, he isn't really, probably a bit poorer. Has Murdoch's control and influence been positive or negative for politics in Australia, UK and US?

Taz · September 23

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?

OBR review possibly ?

Sandpit · September 23

Dopermean said:

eek said:

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Fair point, or Rothermere, he isn't really, probably a bit poorer. Has Murdoch's control and influence been positive or negative for politics in Australia, UK and US?

People of means, and foreign state actors, have always tried to buy influence in the media industry. New media is no different to old media in that regard.

eek · September 23

Taz said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...
Not entirely true, Farage would clearly prefer to face Tugendhat or Cleverly as Tory leader than Jenrick
or Badenoch. Even if Starmer and Davey would prefer to face Jenrick or Badenoch than Cleverly or Tugendhat
So what is best for the Tories, to try to neuter Reform from the right to become, once again, the dominant party on the right of politics, or to try to tackle Labour and the Lib Dems and regain seats lost to them and not focus on Reform.

To have a chance of winning an election they need to do both.

And they probably need to neuter Reform first because there is a lot of downside if Reform start to get organised which Nigel does seem to be interested in doing...

mercator · September 23

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
It's the Janet Slimfast problem, as James Sean Dickson puts it. Or, more charitably, it's about time horizons.

If you have many more years on this mortal coil, growth is good, it pays for nice things. If you don't, the calculation of "inconvenience and expense and ugliness now vs. benefits over decades" works differently. The "there's enough to see me out" drug is damn potent.

We've not had economic growth for ages because, when push comes to shove, not enough people have really wanted it.

There's a monstrous carbuncle on the east side of the M5 which has caused me displeasure every time I drive past it for the last five years. It's just had a sign put up to say that it belongs to Tritax Big Box in which I am a shareholder and I now greet it as an old friend and indicator of national prosperity.

eek · September 23

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?
There’s a lot of HNWs who have heard enough and aren’t waiting for the actual budget.

Mostly people no-one has heard of, quietly running their hedge fund in Mayfair but contributing tens of millions in taxes, hearing talk of punitive 45% CGT rates and not wanting to hang around to find out.

In totally unrelated news, Singapore looked very attractive on TV yesterday for the F1 race.

Really - it looked very warm and sweltering... Mind you I think all the sane options have similar climate given that Europe would be a no go for most people (for tax reasons) and the US likewise (for legal reasons).

rottenborough · September 23

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?
There’s a lot of HNWs who have heard enough and aren’t waiting for the actual budget.

Mostly people no-one has heard of, quietly running their hedge fund in Mayfair but contributing tens of millions in taxes, hearing talk of punitive 45% CGT rates and not wanting to hang around to find out.

In totally unrelated news, Singapore looked very attractive on TV yesterday for the F1 race.

"The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?"

Because the OBR said they couldn't do the necessary numbers in time to allow an earlier date.

Stereodog · September 23

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...
In a way, the government's current problems make the arrogance situation a bit worse. One of the attractions of Conservatives at their best is confidence and swagger, but it can go too far.

Look at the comments here over the weekend. A lot of Conservatives seem convinced that 2029 is in the bag, in which case they can choose the leader they want rather than one chosen to please the wider electorate.

I wonder if '79 to '83 is the temple?
Michael Foot had a poll lead by the end of 1980, before the Falklands and SDP helped save Thatcher
That was a lead Foot inherited from Callaghan, who took the lead within a couple of months of the 1979 election.

Eyeballing the wikiworm graph,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election

November 1980 is pretty much when things started going south for Labour.

And yes, a split side loses to a united side. (And the geography of Lib/Lab votes means that they are effectively united.) Whoever can stick the right back together without causing the remaining centrists to break off is very very clever indeed.

The SDP got most of it's support from Conservative/Labour floating voters so it's a bit hard to say that they damaged Labour overwhelmingly in 1983. If they hadn't existed then a lot of those voters may well have voted Tory given the state of the Labour Party and given them an even bigger majority.

Malmesbury · September 23

Selebian said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...
I'm actually not. I want a competent opposition and, while I'd like* to think it was possible that the Conservative party, as it has become, fades off into the sunset and the Lib Dems become the official opposition, I don't really think that will happen.

*Actually, I'm not sure I would like that. I'm as woke a centrist dad as they come, but a FPTP choice between Lab and LD, even if the LDs went a bit more to the right on economics, would leave a huge part of the more traditionalist/small 'c' conservative part of the electorate with little voice and I don't think that would be a good thing. In that situation, we'd have even more need for PR.

Likewise. There is no one offering competent government, that I can see.

Spending political capital on the Winter Fuel thing was mad. Trying to re-create Alistair Campbell with Sue Gray - when has that ever been a good idea? Even the first time? Not to mention Dominic Cummings....

Malmesbury · September 23

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?
There’s a lot of HNWs who have heard enough and aren’t waiting for the actual budget.

Mostly people no-one has heard of, quietly running their hedge fund in Mayfair but contributing tens of millions in taxes, hearing talk of punitive 45% CGT rates and not wanting to hang around to find out.

In totally unrelated news, Singapore looked very attractive on TV yesterday for the F1 race.
"The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?"

Because the OBR said they couldn't do the necessary numbers in time to allow an earlier date.

Tell 'em to work 3 shifts.

Stuartinromford · September 23

mercator said:

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
It's the Janet Slimfast problem, as James Sean Dickson puts it. Or, more charitably, it's about time horizons.

If you have many more years on this mortal coil, growth is good, it pays for nice things. If you don't, the calculation of "inconvenience and expense and ugliness now vs. benefits over decades" works differently. The "there's enough to see me out" drug is damn potent.

We've not had economic growth for ages because, when push comes to shove, not enough people have really wanted it.
There's a monstrous carbuncle on the east side of the M5 which has caused me displeasure every time I drive past it for the last five years. It's just had a sign put up to say that it belongs to Tritax Big Box in which I am a shareholder and I now greet it as an old friend and indicator of national prosperity.

Which is how capitalism should be- individual greed spilling over into common good. Trouble is that these days we often get the first without the second.

rottenborough · September 23

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?
There’s a lot of HNWs who have heard enough and aren’t waiting for the actual budget.

Mostly people no-one has heard of, quietly running their hedge fund in Mayfair but contributing tens of millions in taxes, hearing talk of punitive 45% CGT rates and not wanting to hang around to find out.

In totally unrelated news, Singapore looked very attractive on TV yesterday for the F1 race.

On the bright side, we can, as a country, at last test the proposition (in the 21st century)* that increasing CGT actually reduces tax take after the initial hit as people change behaviour.

* iirc Lawson equalised CGT with income tax but the world and capital is far more mobile in digital 21st century I reckon.

Taz · September 23

After just over two months of endless negativity the Chancellor is now striking a more optimistic tone. Which is good to see. Especially on the back of very weak consumer confidence.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/reeves-insists-there-are-reasons-to-be-optimistic-as-she-encourages-investment/ar-AA1r1HBx?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e08d149ac3384c5d954c6deafad1a132&ei=42

Sandpit · September 23

eek said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?
There’s a lot of HNWs who have heard enough and aren’t waiting for the actual budget.

Mostly people no-one has heard of, quietly running their hedge fund in Mayfair but contributing tens of millions in taxes, hearing talk of punitive 45% CGT rates and not wanting to hang around to find out.

In totally unrelated news, Singapore looked very attractive on TV yesterday for the F1 race.
Really - it looked very warm and sweltering... Mind you I think all the sane options have similar climate given that Europe would be a no go for most people (for tax reasons) and the US likewise (for legal reasons).

It was hot and sweaty if you were in a racing car with no air conditioning, driving under megawatts of floodlights.

If you were in the Paddock Club, on the other hand, it was lovely.

I have actually been there for the GP, the heat and humidity isn’t that bad for punters, especially if you’re used to the sandpit in summer! It’s 35ºC during the day, same as the hottest days in the UK. Wear a hat and drink lots of water.

The Harris campaign is toying with rises in CGT as well, so there could also be an exodus from the US. Most options are in Europe outside the EU, Middle East, or Asia

HYUFD · September 23

Trump says he will not run for President again if he loses in November "US election: Donald Trump says he probably will not run in 2028 if he loses - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj9ekdvxx2o

Eabhal · September 23

FPT:

2/3rd pint is the perfect volume of beer.

edmundintokyo · September 23

HYUFD said:
Trump says he will not run for President again if he loses in November "US election: Donald Trump says he probably will not run in 2028 if he loses - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj9ekdvxx2o

He said that last time as well.

mercator · September 23

Taz said:
After just over two months of endless negativity the Chancellor is now striking a more optimistic tone. Which is good to see. Especially on the back of very weak consumer confidence.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/reeves-insists-there-are-reasons-to-be-optimistic-as-she-encourages-investment/ar-AA1r1HBx?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e08d149ac3384c5d954c6deafad1a132&ei=42

Says the foreign press. Domestically being reported as the more downbeat "pledge no austerity."

Malmesbury · September 23

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
Is the view special - nope, so build...

Literally my objections when it comes to planning are

1) does it directly impact someone?

if No it can be built.

The standard UK view (from about 5%) is that "It's a lovely view of rolling empty fields. Therefore building that factory impacts *me*. Therefore it must not happen."

And that gets listened to.

In Chablis, the attitude from the other 95% is "Shut up. We want the jobs and local taxes. This means better roads and schools."

OnlyLivingBoy · September 23

eek said:

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?

Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.

mercator · September 23

Taz said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?
OBR review possibly ?

Yes but she could have said this is too important to wait for that. Walked into a trap set by Osborne 15 years ago.

noneoftheabove · September 23

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.

You've missed the UK solution out for some reason.

3) Spend £100m in planning and legal fees and 15 years arguing about whether to build a £50m building.

HYUFD · September 23

Taz said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...
Not entirely true, Farage would clearly prefer to face Tugendhat or Cleverly as Tory leader than Jenrick
or Badenoch. Even if Starmer and Davey would prefer to face Jenrick or Badenoch than Cleverly or Tugendhat
So what is best for the Tories, to try to neuter Reform from the right to become, once again, the dominant party on the right of politics, or to try to tackle Labour and the Lib Dems and regain seats lost to them and not focus on Reform.

To win an overall majority the latter, to squeeze the Reform vote and try and at least get a hung parliament and then do a deal with Farage after many in the right would prefer the former

Malmesbury · September 23

noneoftheabove said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
You've missed the UK solution out for some reason.

3) Spend £100m in planning and legal fees and 15 years arguing about whether to build a £50m building.

Nonsense. That building isn't even £5 million. :-)

But that is key part of the problem. And why it is frustrating that Starmer is burning political capital on nonsense. The real test will be later - when they try and get the abbreviated planning processes they have been talking about through parliament. And when they try and use them.

A zillion MPs will spring up, objecting, first to the abbreviation of planning. Then for each and every occasion where it is applied.

boulay · September 23

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.

Isn’t the whole current Murdoch case about him wanting to keep ideology first as his chosen successor has the same political viewpoints and Rupert is concerned that the ideology will be sidelined if the original Trust terms are not changed.

Dopermean · September 23

Cookie said:

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
That's getting very close to the 'people who criticise Labour = Tories' fallacy.

It is not a complete fallacy is it, Mail, Telegraph, Times journalists will be Tories or write Tory supporting copy, other Tory inclined journalists then discuss that copy. Just as they avoided covering damaging issues for the Tories.
Mirrored by the left-leaning papers of course, but there's less left-leaning media.

Sandpit · September 23

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?
There’s a lot of HNWs who have heard enough and aren’t waiting for the actual budget.

Mostly people no-one has heard of, quietly running their hedge fund in Mayfair but contributing tens of millions in taxes, hearing talk of punitive 45% CGT rates and not wanting to hang around to find out.

In totally unrelated news, Singapore looked very attractive on TV yesterday for the F1 race.
On the bright side, we can, as a country, at last test the proposition (in the 21st century)* that increasing CGT actually reduces tax take after the initial hit as people change behaviour.

* iirc Lawson equalised CGT with income tax but the world and capital is far more mobile in digital 21st century I reckon.

There might be some headroom on CGT, but setting rates anywhere close to income tax levels is a massive disincentive to invest in a business, rather than just work for a salary.

If you’re a fund manager, are you going to base your fund in the UK (45%), the US (40%), Singapore (0%-12%iirc) or Dubai (0%-7%)? So long as there’s regulatory stability, (in Dubai we have the DIFC finance free zone that works under English law, and there’s similar options in Singapore), these people can choose to base themselves and their funds anywhere.

noneoftheabove · September 23

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
You've missed the UK solution out for some reason.

3) Spend £100m in planning and legal fees and 15 years arguing about whether to build a £50m building.
Nonsense. That building isn't even £5 million. :-)

In the UK it will be after spending £45m to rehouse a few blue crested newts.

OnlyLivingBoy · September 23

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
Is the view special - nope, so build...

Literally my objections when it comes to planning are

1) does it directly impact someone?

if No it can be built.
The standard UK view (from about 5%) is that "It's a lovely view of rolling empty fields. Therefore building that factory impacts *me*. Therefore it must not happen."

And that gets listened to.

In Chablis, the attitude from the other 95% is "Shut up. We want the jobs and local taxes. This means better roads and schools."

I guess it gets more complicated when it's a chicken farm not a factory, and building it creates a disgusting smell for miles around and kills everything in the local river and all the jobs are sub minimum wage and local people don't get any of them. My impression is that those are the sort of cases where the difficult growth or no growth decisions get made. But I live in London and NIMBYism isn't such a big issue here.

Stuartinromford · September 23

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
Is the view special - nope, so build...

Literally my objections when it comes to planning are

1) does it directly impact someone?

if No it can be built.
The standard UK view (from about 5%) is that "It's a lovely view of rolling empty fields. Therefore building that factory impacts *me*. Therefore it must not happen."

And that gets listened to.

In Chablis, the attitude from the other 95% is "Shut up. We want the jobs and local taxes. This means better roads and schools."

Again, the shape of Osborne austerity (cutting capital spending, sweating existing assets) has rather bitten us on the bum. People (quite rationally) fear that they will get the new factory or houses, but not the improved roads and schools.

Changing the sequencing would surely help a lot, but I suspect that only the state can put the money up front.

Sandpit · September 23

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.

See also Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk…

AnneJGP · September 23

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...

How about requiring every donor to a political party or politician to make an equal matching donation to help pay off the national debt?

Good morning, everybody.

JosiasJessop · September 23

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.
See also Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk…

I don't think Jeff Bezos is in any wat comparable. His ownership of the Washington Post has been *relatively* (though not totally) hands off, especially compared to Musky Baby, (*) Remember, Bezos's attitude has been 'publish and be damned' in the past.

(*) Apparently he's caved in over Brazil?

MaxPB · September 23

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.

Isn't that the same as The Guardian or the Washington Post, then?

Eabhal · September 23

mercator said:

Taz said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.

Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?
OBR review possibly ?
Yes but she could have said this is too important to wait for that. Walked into a trap set by Osborne 15 years ago.

If there is any relaxation of the fiscal rules in relation to capital investment, doing so without a OBR review would be rate A1 lunacy.

MattW · September 23

Scott_xP said:
@trussliz

Two years on. The British economy would be in much better shape if the Mini Budget had been implemented.

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1838101872969687143

Good morning everyone.

Quoting La Truss?

We don't mention Archbishop Justus; why are we mentioning Loopy Liz?

another_richard · September 23

September PMIs:

UK 52.9 (Aug 53.8)

The September PMI data bring encouraging news, with robust economic growth being accompanied by a cooling
of inflationary pressures. The data therefore hint at a ‘soft landing’ for the UK economy, whereby the fight against
inflation is showing increasing signs of being won without higher interest rates having caused a downturn.

A slight cooling of output growth across manufacturing and services in September should not be seen as too
concerning, as the survey data are still consistent with the economy growing at a rate approaching 0.3% in the third
quarter, which is in line with the Bank of England’s forecast.

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4ce0d839a5d447bf92e1c3b7f9ddb680

williamglenn · September 23

The Irish president has embarrassed himself here:

https://x.com/gavreilly/status/1837897947339542583

NEW: President Higgins has accused Israel of leaking a letter he wrote to his new Iranian counterpart, congratulating him on his election.

He says he doesn’t know how Israeli authorities would have obtained the courtesy letter and regrets that Israel’s ambassador is not currently in Ireland to be consulted.

OnlyLivingBoy · September 23

boulay said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.
Isn’t the whole current Murdoch case about him wanting to keep ideology first as his chosen successor has the same political viewpoints and Rupert is concerned that the ideology will be sidelined if the original Trust terms are not changed.

Maybe he cares less about money now and is thinking about his legacy as he stares the grim reaper in the face. But when he was a big deal in UK and US politics I think he was always a newspaper guy before he was an ideologue. I think that is an important distinction, compared to billionaires who don't view their media purchases as a way of making money but a way of buying influence.

TimS · September 23

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
Is the view special - nope, so build...

Literally my objections when it comes to planning are

1) does it directly impact someone?

if No it can be built.
The standard UK view (from about 5%) is that "It's a lovely view of rolling empty fields. Therefore building that factory impacts *me*. Therefore it must not happen."

And that gets listened to.

In Chablis, the attitude from the other 95% is "Shut up. We want the jobs and local taxes. This means better roads and schools."

In the Mâconnais there’s been some mild NIMBY activity recently. “Non aux aeoliennes” - the people of a few villages on a ridge that already looks out over the TGV line have been exercised about wind farms being planned for the ridge top. From what I can tell they seem to have succeeded. So it does happen.

There is also planning bureaucracy. We wanted to put a dark corrugated iron roof on our barn conversion. Serve, the mayor, said he’d like something a bit lighter as the proposed colour was a bit “Northern European”. We said fine and landed on a warm grey, which does look better. He waved it through.

Then several months later after building we get a very stern letter from the prefecture of Salome et Loire announcing our building is illegal because the roof is not in keeping with the region and the mayor had exceeded his authority in the matter. This despite nobody local actually objecting (because it’s pretty much invisible to everyone). Cue frantic exchanges of emails and an agreement on a compromise, with Serge getting a ticking off.

JosiasJessop · September 23

noneoftheabove said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
You've missed the UK solution out for some reason.

3) Spend £100m in planning and legal fees and 15 years arguing about whether to build a £50m building.

JCB have always been very good at making their factories fit into the landscape. I went to school above this one for years:
https://maps.app.goo.gl/deMFryXryuUfJ7kx7

OnlyLivingBoy · September 23

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.
Isn't that the same as The Guardian or the Washington Post, then?

Yes sure, and people are free to point out the Guardian's ideological bias and frequently do.

another_richard · September 23

France 47.4 (Aug 53.1)

It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/694d0a3bd63944428e2042aaf17e9443

Germany 47.2 (48.4)

The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5455a5b6d984483ebb968a52881396d8

mercator · September 23

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs

Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell:
They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm

My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.

Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.

Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1837813247736451210

The Liz Truss solution...
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.

Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.

It depends on your view of this

1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth.
2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.

Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
Is the view special - nope, so build...

Literally my objections when it comes to planning are

1) does it directly impact someone?

if No it can be built.
The standard UK view (from about 5%) is that "It's a lovely view of rolling empty fields. Therefore building that factory impacts *me*. Therefore it must not happen."

And that gets listened to.

In Chablis, the attitude from the other 95% is "Shut up. We want the jobs and local taxes. This means better roads and schools."
In the Mâconnais there’s been some mild NIMBY activity recently. “Non aux aeoliennes” - the people of a few villages on a ridge that already looks out over the TGV line have been exercised about wind farms being planned for the ridge top. From what I can tell they seem to have succeeded. So it does happen.

There is also planning bureaucracy. We wanted to put a dark corrugated iron roof on our barn conversion. Serve, the mayor, said he’d like something a bit lighter as the proposed colour was a bit “Northern European”. We said fine and landed on a warm grey, which does look better. He waved it through.

Then several months later after building we get a very stern letter from the prefecture of Salome et Loire announcing our building is illegal because the roof is not in keeping with the region and the mayor had exceeded his authority in the matter. This despite nobody local actually objecting (because it’s pretty much invisible to everyone). Cue frantic exchanges of emails and an agreement on a compromise, with Serge getting a ticking off.

How fantastic that that is the french for wind turbine. Made my day.

Cookie · September 23

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

Dopermean said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.

So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together.
Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
That's getting very close to the 'people who criticise Labour = Tories' fallacy.
It is not a complete fallacy is it, Mail, Telegraph, Times journalists will be Tories or write Tory supporting copy, other Tory inclined journalists then discuss that copy. Just as they avoided covering damaging issues for the Tories.
Mirrored by the left-leaning papers of course, but there's less left-leaning media.

1) The Telegraph avoided damaging issues for the Tories? No it didn't.
2) It's certainly not the case that anyone who works for the Telegraph,Mail etc is right-leaning.
3) Again, being critical of one of the two big parties <> being a supporter of the other one.
4) I'd strongly question 'less left-leaning media'. Print media, perhaps.

GIN1138 · September 23

malcolmg said:
First

Morning Macl!

TimS · September 23

another_richard said:
September PMIs:

UK 52.9 (Aug 53.8)

The September PMI data bring encouraging news, with robust economic growth being accompanied by a cooling
of inflationary pressures. The data therefore hint at a ‘soft landing’ for the UK economy, whereby the fight against
inflation is showing increasing signs of being won without higher interest rates having caused a downturn.

A slight cooling of output growth across manufacturing and services in September should not be seen as too
concerning, as the survey data are still consistent with the economy growing at a rate approaching 0.3% in the third
quarter, which is in line with the Bank of England’s forecast.

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4ce0d839a5d447bf92e1c3b7f9ddb680

One phenomenon going on quietly in the background, which should encourage the BoE to get off its arse on interest rates: the pound is the strongest it’s been in a while.

GBP:EUR 1.20, last seen in early 2022 before Truss etc, and before that briefly in Feb 2020.

GBP:USD 1.33, also the highest since Feb 2022.

Not quite the rates I grew up with (I remember the halcyon days of 2 dollars to the pound in the noughties) but the financial crisis put paid to any hope of those ever coming back.

another_richard · September 23

I wonder how much of the support of the EU for freedom of movement of the under 30s might be affected by:

1) The relative strength of the UK and EU economies

2) The likelihood of political turmoil in EU countries caused by unemployment among the under 30s.

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