Jenrick is still on top but it’s tight – politicalbetting.com
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For the past 10 years or so my landline has just made some sort of 'vague error beep noise' when I plugged a phone into it. Never cared enough to figure out what it might be.rottenborough said:
This is the kind of thing I am thinking.Eabhal said:
The number I have associated with support, kindness and love for over twenty years has just... gone.rottenborough said:
I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.Anabobazina said:
Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.Jonathan said:TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.
I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.
But I know I am being irrational.
It hurt more than I expected. WhatsApp just doesn't have the same concrete sense of security that a landline does. Also why I have some sympathy with the cash luddites on here.
Is this tech noom??0 -
rottenborough said:
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
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1h
If we assume the winning candidate will get over 45 votes, 38 votes will guarantee a final 2 slot. So Jenrick & Badenoch are already pretty close to home, if not yet hosed.
Yes but why would we assume the winning candidate will get 45 votes? And it's not clear either Jenrick or Badenoch can get enough transfers to get to 40. Though I do assume one of them will.rottenborough said:
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
1h
If we assume the winning candidate will get over 45 votes, 38 votes will guarantee a final 2 slot. So Jenrick & Badenoch are already pretty close to home, if not yet hosed.
TSE's obsession with Badenoch is getting a bit ridiculous now and is damaging the site's credibility.0 -
That's a bit greedy.Sunil_Prasannan said:
India has around 840 languages!Dumbosaurus said:
I avoid North Wales to an extent (not a total boycott, just don't go as much as I would otherwise) because of a) their camera vans b) this sort of thing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Problems building new homes in Wales!!!
Affordable homes plan refused amid fears 'non-Welsh speakers' would move in
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/affordable-homes-plan-refused-amid-29903994#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
UK missed a trick in the 60s. Should have just let them burn down a few more bungalows and stood firm. Some countries are cursed with multiple languages (the one I'm most familiar with, Zambia has 73). But there's no reason the UK needs to have any more than English as an official tongue (fun fact it's my understand that Welsh is our only official language!). By all means teach them Welsh at home but making it possible to be a Welsh monoglot is child abuse imo.1 -
Cookie said:
I disagree, as I said earlier. Cleverly will make it through to the final two on these results, Badenoch will not. It will almost certainly be Jenrick-Cleverly, possibly Jenrick-Tugendhat.HYUFD said:After Stride was knocked out today it was a good result in the latest stage of the Tory leadership result for Jenrick who is still a clear first. OK for Badenoch who kept second and expanded her lead over Cleverly and OK for Tugendhat who stayed in and will hope to take most Stride votes.
Not great for Cleverly though who failed to get any more MPs backing him than in the first round and is at risk of going out in the next round. He will need to wow conference and pick up some Stride supporters
One issue for Junrick though is that unlike if there were far more MPs he doesn't quite have enough votes yet to leak some to ensure Badenoch is kept off.
Question is do moderate Tories unite behind Cleverly/Tugendhat and can ensure they're on the members' ballot, or/and try to ensure their least worst option from the right is on - if they can work out who that is?
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Harris has been given a miniature lectern for the debate today so that on the split screen she doesn't look smaller than Trump.1
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You mean she’s been given a lectern that matches her height?williamglenn said:Harris has been given a miniature lectern for the debate today so that on the split screen she doesn't look smaller than Trump.
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Trump has a smaller mouth.williamglenn said:Harris has been given a miniature lectern for the debate today so that on the split screen she doesn't look smaller than Trump.
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Yes, that is what he means.Malmesbury said:
You mean she’s been given a lectern that matches her height?williamglenn said:Harris has been given a miniature lectern for the debate today so that on the split screen she doesn't look smaller than Trump.
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Yes:Malmesbury said:
You mean she’s been given a lectern that matches her height?williamglenn said:Harris has been given a miniature lectern for the debate today so that on the split screen she doesn't look smaller than Trump.
https://x.com/alexthomp/status/18335856607978743590 -
JUNRICKMJW said:Cookie said:
I disagree, as I said earlier. Cleverly will make it through to the final two on these results, Badenoch will not. It will almost certainly be Jenrick-Cleverly, possibly Jenrick-Tugendhat.HYUFD said:After Stride was knocked out today it was a good result in the latest stage of the Tory leadership result for Jenrick who is still a clear first. OK for Badenoch who kept second and expanded her lead over Cleverly and OK for Tugendhat who stayed in and will hope to take most Stride votes.
Not great for Cleverly though who failed to get any more MPs backing him than in the first round and is at risk of going out in the next round. He will need to wow conference and pick up some Stride supporters
One issue for Junrick though is that unlike if there were far more MPs he doesn't quite have enough votes yet to leak some to ensure Badenoch is kept off.
Question is do moderate Tories unite behind Cleverly/Tugendhat and can ensure they're on the members' ballot, or/and try to ensure their least worst option from the right is on - if they can work out who that is?0 -
Who would think that a woman of south Asian descent might be shorter than a man of Scottish descent? I’m glad we have one of the WilliamGlenn’s to give us the inside track.williamglenn said:
Yes:Malmesbury said:
You mean she’s been given a lectern that matches her height?williamglenn said:Harris has been given a miniature lectern for the debate today so that on the split screen she doesn't look smaller than Trump.
https://x.com/alexthomp/status/18335856607978743592 -
and hands. probably.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Trump has a smaller mouth.williamglenn said:Harris has been given a miniature lectern for the debate today so that on the split screen she doesn't look smaller than Trump.
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It’s quite a big deal that Apple aren’t allowing Apple Intelligence in the EU but they ARE releasing it in the UK
This is a big fat Brexit benefit. Right there
For those who have been desperately crying for one0 -
This article addresses the conundrum that has baffled several of us in this site: why on earth, Jenrick?
And comes up with a simple answer that may be on the money. Jenrick is a rare but essential combination: uber right wing as the selectorate want AND not obviously bonkers.
That he is also sleazy, corrupt, incompetent and thoroughly unpleasant doesn't come into the picture.
https://bsky.app/profile/matthewholehouse.bsky.social/post/3l3t3yjb62l2b0 -
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I don't much care for @Trumptrollwilliamglenn. I preferred @EurofederalistwilliamglennAnabobazina said:
Who would think that a woman of south Asian descent might be shorter than a man of Scottish descent? I’m glad we have one of the WilliamGlenn’s to give us the inside track.williamglenn said:
Yes:Malmesbury said:
You mean she’s been given a lectern that matches her height?williamglenn said:Harris has been given a miniature lectern for the debate today so that on the split screen she doesn't look smaller than Trump.
https://x.com/alexthomp/status/18335856607978743592 -
A beautiful eulogy to a robot, performed on a wooden piano;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d36NP961r8s0 -
That's the confidence tick. It's when it starts shouting "attack warning red" you have to worry.ohnotnow said:
For the past 10 years or so my landline has just made some sort of 'vague error beep noise' when I plugged a phone into it. Never cared enough to figure out what it might be.rottenborough said:
This is the kind of thing I am thinking.Eabhal said:
The number I have associated with support, kindness and love for over twenty years has just... gone.rottenborough said:
I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.Anabobazina said:
Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.Jonathan said:TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.
I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.
But I know I am being irrational.
It hurt more than I expected. WhatsApp just doesn't have the same concrete sense of security that a landline does. Also why I have some sympathy with the cash luddites on here.
Is this tech noom??2 -
I think there is a plan to provide battery backup with the primary phone on a digital line for those that might need it. The cabinets will also have a battery backup although I think the run time quoted for these is about 4 hours.rottenborough said:
"Landlines don't work in a power cut any more."carnforth said:
My broadband provider charges nothing for the landline. It can't be unbundled.Foxy said:
Landlines don't work in a power cut any more. Mine went a few years back. Waste of money.rottenborough said:
I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.Anabobazina said:
Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.Jonathan said:TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.
I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.
But I know I am being irrational.
I know. Or at least know that is coming with end of PSTN.
But I still think the mobile network may be down but landline still up.
The main concern I think is homecare type services that don't run over digital which will be a bit of a pain to replace.
I'm still on PSTN so still get the odd call but I expect it will be binned shortly.0 -
crApple.Leon said:It’s quite a big deal that Apple aren’t allowing Apple Intelligence in the EU but they ARE releasing it in the UK
This is a big fat Brexit benefit. Right there
For those who have been desperately crying for one0 -
(a) Landlines used to work in a power cut.
(b) Analogue radio was in sync with the real world, unlike digital radio which has a delay.0 -
Late to this, but isn't this a combination of simple but related things - the modern era Guardian (basically since Rusbridger took it Berliner and online made it trendy in the mid-2000s) struggles to like Labour governments. Its core readership are of the uber progressive-ilk who are constantly disappointed Labour politicians have to deal with reality and voters who don't think like them. In opposition everyone focuses on the Tories. The moment Labour is in, or even looks a certainty to be in government, those people are simply waiting to be disappointed.Leon said:The point about the guardian attack on Labour is not that they’re doing it - esp over WFA - but that they are doing it in a number of different ways and with different high profile journalists. And they are also lacing it with personally offensive stuff - like the cartoon linked above and marina hyde being remarkably mean about Starmer and his puritan ways
They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular
That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc
eg one of the most subtle but effective hatchet jobs on Starmer was written in the guardian BEFORE the election. That weird interview where he admitted he didn’t dream, spoke about himself in the third person, and came across as quite unlikeable. That now seems deliberate
Someone at guardian towers - someone very high up - has an “issue” with the Labour leadership
That's happened a bit earlier than usual given Starmer has looked so certain to win, and his schtick post-Hartlepool has been to almost entirely ignore The Guardian and said uber-progressives.
Then there's the Corbyn years and defenestration. Fairly clear some pretty senior people at The Graun will never forgive Starmer and the centre left for not being onboard with Dear Jeremy. Several of their biggest columnists were staunch Corbynites. And if you want a degree of the strength of feeling, listen to someone like Alexei Sayle say he now personally loathes fellow comedians he thought he was politically allied with (it's on Josie Long's podcast) because they criticised St Jez.
Then you've got Gaza. Of all the papers it's the one that's most in the 'Palestine camp' (Kath Viner even did a gushing interview with Leila Khaled) and Starmer will never be forgiven for not throwing his lot in with those who in their heart of hearts don't think Israel should exist and think accusations of antisemitism on the left are overblown because of that.
Though ironically, some of the people who'd strongly hold the latter two views also hate The Guardian because it also publishes people like Jonathan Freedland and Rafael Behr and covers stories it doesn't like when they become impossible to ignore.
As for Marina Hyde, she's snarky about everyone.
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It seems bizarre having election campaign adverts during the actual TV debate programme.0
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Harris is clearly off to a nervous start. Trump on best behaviour. So far0
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edit0
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Harris ignores the opening question.
But Trump responds with a ramble.
Harris much better with her rebuttal.0 -
Interesting comment from Harris about China and covid.0
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Harris blames President Xi for covid.0
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Trump winning imo but I'm too busy to watch the rest.0
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She’s starting to needle Trump now; no doubt the plan. Trump starting to ramble all over the place. Pointless boasting. World war three is coming. People are eating dogs and cats. He’s starting to sound like Leon.0
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Betfair ticks towards Harris: from 2.16 to 2.08 in last few mins.2
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Trump is appealing to his base, despite the baselessness of his claims. He's mildly/moderately incoherent and full of shit but I'm worried!0
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Trump getting quite rattled now; reckon Dem HQ will be happy with this0
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Notice he can't seem to bring himself to look at her when she's speaking.
Sad, angry old guy.0 -
Whereas Harris is directing a look of mildly amused contempt for him as he rambles, "just horribly".1
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Trump is ranting incoherent gobbledygook. I don’t know why I should be surprised.0
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Nevermind, Trump seems to have gone off the deep end. The floridity that lends his bullshit credence seems to have deserted him. I just hope it's enough.Unpopular said:Trump is appealing to his base, despite the baselessness of his claims. He's mildly/moderately incoherent and full of shit but I'm worried!
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ABC question on January 6th is an absolute gift for Harris.0
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CROSSOVER!!!!!!
Trump 2.06
Harris 1.992 -
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A couple of Starmer phrases from Kamala. "Turn the page" , "end the chaos"0
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"Charlottesville was perfect". 😳0
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I’m watching this in a mountain lodge cafe in the Cascade Mountains of British Columbia
Very hard to call. Both showing their flaws. Trump rambling, bizarre and prickly, Kamala rambling, reedy and insubstantial
So far I don’t think this will budge the polls either way. If you’re keen to vote for either candidate you’ve already discounted the above, and nothing here will alter that. So far0 -
Seems pretty much like a draw so far.
Betfair slightly overreacting imo.0 -
Trump now arguing that he won the 2020 GE.0
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Viktor Orban!!!0
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Trump 2.1
Harris 1.96
Harris was 2.16 pre debate - so that's quite a substantial move.2 -
A bizarre choice given most Americans will likely never have heard of OrbanIanB2 said:Viktor Orban!!!
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I missed the first 20 minutes so don’t know how that went, but what I have seen is one person who is normal and another person who is clearly insane.Andy_JS said:Seems pretty much like a draw so far.
Betfair slightly overreacting imo.
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Well he could hardly cite Putin, could he?Anabobazina said:
A bizarre choice given most Americans will likely never have heard of OrbanIanB2 said:Viktor Orban!!!
I doubt those few who have heard of Orban will be hugely impressed that he thinks Trump is a great guy1 -
It’s bollocksMikeL said:Trump 2.1
Harris 1.96
Harris was 2.16 pre debate - so that's quite a substantial move.
Trump is being Trump. Is all. A mad bastard who shouldn’t be anywhere near the White House but there is nothing here to frighten voters beyond what we’ve already seen many many times1 -
Well it's not as though there's a long queue of non authoritarian leaders in the Trump fan club, linjng up to praise him.Anabobazina said:
A bizarre choice given most Americans will likely never have heard of OrbanIanB2 said:Viktor Orban!!!
And Tucker likes him, so there's that.0 -
Harris needs to be careful not to overdo it. Let Trump hang himself0
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Harris is much more effective when she attacks Trump directly0
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Harris is doing slightly better than I expected . I thought she might come over as too smug, but actually she hasn't been too bad on that score.Leon said:I’m watching this in a mountain lodge cafe in the Cascade Mountains of British Columbia
Very hard to call. Both showing their flaws. Trump rambling, bizarre and prickly, Kamala rambling, reedy and insubstantial
So far I don’t think this will budge the polls either way. If you’re keen to vote for either candidate you’ve already discounted the above, and nothing here will alter that. So far0 -
No, it's not.Leon said:
It’s bollocksMikeL said:Trump 2.1
Harris 1.96
Harris was 2.16 pre debate - so that's quite a substantial move.
Trump is being Trump. Is all. A mad bastard who shouldn’t be anywhere near the White House but there is nothing here to frighten voters beyond what we’ve already seen many many times
The audience that matters is the undecideds.
Harris is introducing herself to them, while Trump continues being a diminished version of himself.
Only one way that's going to trend, on tonight's showing.1 -
Slight tick back at the ad break:
Trump 2.08
Harrris 1.980 -
You clearly missed @williamglenn ‘s amazing exclusive earlier that she is shorter than Trump.Andy_JS said:
Harris is doing slightly better than I expected . I thought she might come over as too smug, but actually she hasn't been too bad on that score.Leon said:I’m watching this in a mountain lodge cafe in the Cascade Mountains of British Columbia
Very hard to call. Both showing their flaws. Trump rambling, bizarre and prickly, Kamala rambling, reedy and insubstantial
So far I don’t think this will budge the polls either way. If you’re keen to vote for either candidate you’ve already discounted the above, and nothing here will alter that. So far4 -
@FrankLuntz
My phone and my X mentions are being flooded by Trump supporters complaining about the debate.
I think they know he's losing. #Debate20241 -
Harris should lambast Trump for refusing to say he supports Ukraine.1
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Harris is winning the debate, by not by a huge margin. That's how I see it at the moment.0
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ABC should not allow Trump an extra go at the end of a section - it's happened at least twice now.2
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A question for those of you who are watching this — I’m not — how well is the Calvin predictor working?
(For some time I have thought that you could explain much of what the Loser does by assuming he mostly behaves like Calvin, of the Calvin and Hobbes comic strip.)
Jim Miller (52501b)0 -
The hotel here has a large homely lobby/lounge with comfortable chairs, a roaring fire, a bar and a big screen TV, which has been a popular place to hang out the last three nights. So I thought I’d go down and see the reaction of some actual Americans to the debate. But the room was completely empty, apart from a staff member wondering where everybody was. I can hear a few people are listening in their rooms - but politics in the US isn’t an experience they seem to want to share.1
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Betfair dead flat since ad break. Still:
Trump 2.08
Harris 1.980 -
This is the usual 0-0 draw so far. Not worth getting up early.
One of them needs to say something completely outrageous!0 -
The commentariat are going to be talking endlessly about how well this has gone for Harris, but the only thing I'm interested in is the opinion polling.1
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ABC questions have been kind to Harris. Sections on:
Abortion
Jan 6th
and now a question on Trump comments re Harris becoming black.0 -
CBS has a mixed focus group that I assume they will go back to as soon as the debate is finished. They must be paying well to get them to talk politics in public.Andy_JS said:The commentariat are going to be talking endlessly about how well this has gone for Harris, but the only thing I'm interested in is the opinion polling.
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Donald Trump is too emotional to be president.
https://x.com/briantylercohen/status/18336803086314292230 -
Kamala is much weaker when she starts the woke waffling1
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Are there any more debates after this or is this the only one?0
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Maybe the commentariat are going to be endlessly fact-checking Trump's lies.Andy_JS said:The commentariat are going to be talking endlessly about how well this has gone for Harris, but the only thing I'm interested in is the opinion polling.
Yeah, right...1 -
So far the only one agreed. There is a VP one upcomingAnabobazina said:Are there any more debates after this or is this the only one?
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Trump's age is showing. He's a bit dozy compared to 4 and 8 years ago, unsurprisingly.0
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0
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FWIW, according to the WaPo, Trump is the first president in more than a century not to bring a pet to the White House.0
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Pfouffe says the undecideds dialling the debate are reading strongly Harris, FWIW.Andy_JS said:The commentariat are going to be talking endlessly about how well this has gone for Harris, but the only thing I'm interested in is the opinion polling.
But agreed, the next week's polls are what I'll be watching. Notably any big movement in the Times Siena poll, compared with the one they did immediately pre-debate.0 -
He nods a lot when Kamala is speaking, not in agreement (presumably)Andy_JS said:Trump's age is showing. He's a bit dozy compared to 4 and 8 years ago, unsurprisingly.
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I think I'll read the new Max Boot biography instead.IanB2 said:0 -
More like the nasty, brutish Hobbes.Jim_Miller said:A question for those of you who are watching this — I’m not — how well is the Calvin predictor working?
(For some time I have thought that you could explain much of what the Loser does by assuming he mostly behaves like Calvin, of the Calvin and Hobbes comic strip.)
Jim Miller (52501b)
Though exceedingly verbose, rather than short.0 -
Haley would likely have walked it but they hitched their wagon to this loonyLeon said:
It’s a crying shameAndy_JS said:Trump's age is showing. He's a bit dozy compared to 4 and 8 years ago, unsurprisingly.
Kamala Harris is a weak candidate and a decent antiWoke SANE Republican would mince her and the Dems
Unfortunately the GOP is in thrall to this nutter Trump0 -
I am struggling to stay awake (it’s 3.30am) but it seems like it’s nearly finished. Might as well cling on for a bit.0
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Almost no move at all between 1st and 2nd ad breaks. Now:
Trump 2.08
Harris 1.97
At 1st break it was 2.08 / 1.980 -
When Trump loses (hopefully by a landslide) it will force the GOP to finally come to their senses.Leon said:
It’s a crying shameAndy_JS said:Trump's age is showing. He's a bit dozy compared to 4 and 8 years ago, unsurprisingly.
Kamala Harris is a weak candidate and a decent antiWoke SANE Republican would mince her and the Dems
Unfortunately the GOP is in thrall to this nutter Trump0 -
Kinda makes sense.MikeL said:Almost no move at all between 1st and 2nd ad breaks. Now:
Trump 2.08
Harris 1.97
At 1st break it was 2.08 / 1.98
It's still (as far as we can tell) a close race. The big unknown was Harris in the debate - Trump's a known quantity. By half time it was pretty clear how it was going.
Most punters will probably wait for the next set of polls now.0 -
According to Jeff Stein of the WaPo: "Trump said the Biden administration has been “horrible” for manufacturing. Manufacturing employment is higher than it was under Trump, and the U.S. had as of August added more than 765,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2021."
Anyone know, offhand, how that compares to the EU?1 -
Looking at who's in it, it will be pretty dire.IanB2 said:0 -
Can they delay the election for six months, and let the two parties find new candidates? These two are rubbish.1
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Trump now gone full Leon, predicting nuclear war1
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One is decent and sane; the other venal and insane. Quite a difference.Sandpit said:Can they delay the election for six months, and let the two parties find new candidates? These two are rubbish.
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