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Jenrick is still on top but it’s tight – politicalbetting.com
Jenrick is still on top but it’s tight – politicalbetting.com
Mel doesn’t Stride in to the next round. Amusing to see there’s just twelve votes between the top four. pic.twitter.com/zfikxAx4h5
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I'd have thought Stride's vote would mainly go to Tugendhat and Cleverly - and if it splits evenly, Kemi's out next round. More likely (in my view) is that Stride's vote goes something like 2/2/7/5 to J/B/C/T, putting Tugendhat out and Cleverly through - then Tugendhat's votes transfer mainly to Cleverly, giving the members a choice of Jenrick or Cleverly.
And if Stride's votes divided equally between Tugendhat and Cleverly and nothing else changed, Badenoch would come last.
https://x.com/JuddLegum/status/1833487398207996275
The wrinkle is, of course, that if he's re-elected President, he gets to redefine securities fraud.
Fun details:
..2. Trump is the "Chief Crypto Advocate" for the nascent venture, World Liberty Financial.
Donald Jr. and Eric are the company's "Web 3 Ambassadors."
18-year-old Barron Trump is World Liberty Financial's official "DeFi Visionary."..
Nobody gave him a chance but he comes across as the most sane, reasonable, balanced, moderate of the lot. And he's a team player - he did masses of interviews throughout GE. A bit like a kind uncle.
Maybe he would be a bit old - 63 in a few weeks, so at least 67 at next GE - but even so I think we would do the best with the public.
I would discount his poll ratings on the basis the public don't know him.
Moderate = Cleverly + Tugendhat + Stride = 58
So appears nailed on that final will be one from each wing - ie not Jenrick v Badenoch.
That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.
Oh well.
Never mind.
Patel's votes were the best chance for her to close the gap on Jenrick, and she didn't close it by anything like enough.
You've nailed it.
That's why he's out.
There's a funny story here. As you know I've started using the automated machines as a way of bypassing the talking-to-humans bit, and I didn't realise you had to specify the stake. I put a tenner in the machine and placed the bet, but as I hadn't specified the stake it used the default £5stake and an instant loss of £5. Still, cheap for a valuable learning experience...
The reality is they are probably choosing someone to fix the worst of the damage to the party, bring on the youngsters, hope for the best but expect to hand over to someone else after losing less badly next time.
Recognise that, and both Patel and Stride make a lot more sense.
Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.
The fact is, there's a huge amount of second guessing going on and nobody really know's what's going to happen lol!
With Stride and either Cleverly or Tugendhat to be transferred from here, how on earth is she going to beat the other of Cleverly and Tugendhat?
The numbers are quite clearly against her.
I think Jenrick a poor choice myself, and not likely to make a dent in either Refukkers or LDs, but hard to make a strong case for any of the others either.
Cameron completely changed the dynamic based on one speech (and a little help from a Frank Luntz focus group).
Maybe more MPs are persuadable than this maths seems to show?
This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris
“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance
Also this on the same page
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment
Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?
Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson
I can't see a path for her to beat Jenrick, or beat either of Cleverly/Tugendhat from here.
The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/sep/09/ben-jennings-labour-plan-winter-fuel-payments-to-pensioners-cartoon
MPs, for obvious reasons, like to be seen to support the winner. In the unlikely event of one of this crew pulling off a barnstormer which sets the conference ablaze, it can hardly harm their chances.
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.
A spokesman for Kemi Badenoch's said: "Kemi has the momentum - she’s putting on votes from across the party, has more shadow cabinet backers than the other candidates combined, and the independent polling shows she is overwhelmingly the choice of the party membership."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/10/politics-latest-news-winter-fuel-tory-leadership-contest/
Jeremy Corbyn could have won a landslide and the Grauniad would have complained afterwards.
If they fail to sort out the public services and local council mess then Labour will have failed and Farage will be ready and waiting in 2028.
Harris is winning this election.
I always like to have someone ahead of me on these sorts of occasions so I can study and learn from their example. The trouble with this technique is it looks as if I am trying to see their PIN.
(Ian Hislop was good on this in a recent Private Eye podcast. We think of Blair having a long honeymoon, but the Ecclestone scandal was pretty early on.)
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Surprised to see the level of Cleverly ramping going on after this result. He's clearly the best candidate left (never a reliable indicator of likely success in a Tory leadership election) but the numbers aren't with him. 21 votes in the first round, 21 votes in the second round. He's stalled.
From (albeit very limited number of recent polls) we can see Labours polling position is already heading south...
It just stole the other £5. That can't be legal.
(That's slightly harsh in search of a cheap laugh. If your train of thought starts at 'the Conservative problem was the government's softness on immigration leading to defections to Reform', Jenrick Central probably is your final station stop. In a way, it's harder to work out the question to which Badenoch is the answer.)
And, fwiw, look about right - i.e. Trump ahead, but it's still largely a toss up.
* Exceptions to support the economy for things like covid or indeed the very abrupt energy price spike after the Ukrainian invasion are fine.
Less good when some-one interrupts her with common sense or reality though.
Anyone tracking if we are still in the banterverse?
The catch is that the voters have repeatedly made it clear that they aren't keen on lowish means tested benefits but they really don't like highish taxes.
What the voters actually want is basically to deny arithmetic. Which is why government is hard.
This means he can double down on 'Labour sounder than the Cons with the public finances'. He does that and it beds in Labour as the preferred party of the floating voters of middle England.
Unless the Tories get that 'best with money' moniker back they aren't winning the next election. They're competing with the LDs for 2nd if they detox or with RUK if they lurch right.
Meanwhile Starmer, having established his bona fides as not a drunken sailor can do some quite progressive things that will also be popular. He has to prove competent, of course, but if he does, and absent black swans, GE28/29 is in the bag.
Golfing analogy needed for this 'no threat from the left' point? Yes ok. Those who play the game will know that if you never ever hook the ball off the tee it takes all the trouble on the left out of the equation. Driving becomes so much easier then. You just guard against the slice and you're bound to be in good shape.
That's where Starmer is. Tonking it down the middle.
If his ghost ever looks at California, he must feel very smug.
But we can't any more...
They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular
That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc
eg one of the most subtle but effective hatchet jobs on Starmer was written in the guardian BEFORE the election. That weird interview where he admitted he didn’t dream, spoke about himself in the third person, and came across as quite unlikeable. That now seems deliberate
Someone at guardian towers - someone very high up - has an “issue” with the Labour leadership