Jenrick is still on top but it’s tight – politicalbetting.com

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Jenrick is still on top but it’s tight – politicalbetting.com

Mel doesn’t Stride in to the next round. Amusing to see there’s just twelve votes between the top four. pic.twitter.com/zfikxAx4h5

Read the full story here

Nunu3

first?

Taz

JENRICK

Nunu3

Nunu3 said:

first?

yay

Taz

Nunu3 said:

Nunu3 said:

first?

yay

And third !

viewcode

This may be a good time to remind you that I have a fiver on Badenoch

Cookie

FPT - in my view this sees Jenrick and Cleverly into the final two.

I'd have thought Stride's vote would mainly go to Tugendhat and Cleverly - and if it splits evenly, Kemi's out next round. More likely (in my view) is that Stride's vote goes something like 2/2/7/5 to J/B/C/T, putting Tugendhat out and Cleverly through - then Tugendhat's votes transfer mainly to Cleverly, giving the members a choice of Jenrick or Cleverly.

GarethoftheVale2

The problem with that thesis is that it assumes that all the current Cleverly/Tugendhat voters are genuine and that there combined total of 42 isn't being inflated by any tactical voters. I'm guessing a lower amount say 70% are transferable. Jenrick only needs 8 to guarantee the run off, which I guess he will get. Badenoch needs 13.

Taz

viewcode said:

This may be a good time to remind you that I have a fiver on Badenoch

At good odds ?

JohnO

Cookie said:

FPT - in my view this sees Jenrick and Cleverly into the final two.

I'd have thought Stride's vote would mainly go to Tugendhat and Cleverly - and if it splits evenly, Kemi's out next round. More likely (in my view) is that Stride's vote goes something like 2/2/7/5 to J/B/C/T, putting Tugendhat out and Cleverly through - then Tugendhat's votes transfer mainly to Cleverly, giving the members a choice of Jenrick or Cleverly.

I think that's right.

Chris

"... I would be very worried if I was Kemi Badenoch because I suspect one of Tom Tugendhat or James Cleverly will get knocked out next and their votes will go to the last man standing out of those two."

And if Stride's votes divided equally between Tugendhat and Cleverly and nothing else changed, Badenoch would come last.

JohnO

Cookie said:

FPT - in my view this sees Jenrick and Cleverly into the final two.

I'd have thought Stride's vote would mainly go to Tugendhat and Cleverly - and if it splits evenly, Kemi's out next round. More likely (in my view) is that Stride's vote goes something like 2/2/7/5 to J/B/C/T, putting Tugendhat out and Cleverly through - then Tugendhat's votes transfer mainly to Cleverly, giving the members a choice of Jenrick or Cleverly.

That's my guess too (and hope!).

Nigelb

Trump's latest crypto venture appears to rely on securities fraud to give him a payout.
https://x.com/JuddLegum/status/1833487398207996275

The wrinkle is, of course, that if he's re-elected President, he gets to redefine securities fraud.

Fun details:
..2. Trump is the "Chief Crypto Advocate" for the nascent venture, World Liberty Financial.

Donald Jr. and Eric are the company's "Web 3 Ambassadors."

18-year-old Barron Trump is World Liberty Financial's official "DeFi Visionary."..

MikeL

A shame Mel Stride is out.

Nobody gave him a chance but he comes across as the most sane, reasonable, balanced, moderate of the lot. And he's a team player - he did masses of interviews throughout GE. A bit like a kind uncle.

Maybe he would be a bit old - 63 in a few weeks, so at least 67 at next GE - but even so I think we would do the best with the public.

I would discount his poll ratings on the basis the public don't know him.

TheScreamingEagles

JohnO said:

Cookie said:

FPT - in my view this sees Jenrick and Cleverly into the final two.

I'd have thought Stride's vote would mainly go to Tugendhat and Cleverly - and if it splits evenly, Kemi's out next round. More likely (in my view) is that Stride's vote goes something like 2/2/7/5 to J/B/C/T, putting Tugendhat out and Cleverly through - then Tugendhat's votes transfer mainly to Cleverly, giving the members a choice of Jenrick or Cleverly.

That's my guess too (and hope!).

That's what I am hoping/expecting too.

MikeL

Right = Jenrick + Badenoch = 61
Moderate = Cleverly + Tugendhat + Stride = 58

So appears nailed on that final will be one from each wing - ie not Jenrick v Badenoch.

Sandpit

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

GarethoftheVale2

MikeL said:

A shame Mel Stride is out.

Nobody gave him a chance but he comes across as the most sane, reasonable, balanced, moderate of the lot. And he's a team player - he did masses of interviews throughout GE. A bit like a kind uncle.

Maybe he would be a bit old - 63 in a few weeks, so at least 67 at next GE - but even so I think we would do the best with the public.

I would discount his poll ratings on the basis the public don't know him.

Didn't really see much of him in the press over the summer. The suspicion has to be that he has running to get a good shadow cabinet position

Stuartinromford

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

Cookie said:

FPT - in my view this sees Jenrick and Cleverly into the final two.

I'd have thought Stride's vote would mainly go to Tugendhat and Cleverly - and if it splits evenly, Kemi's out next round. More likely (in my view) is that Stride's vote goes something like 2/2/7/5 to J/B/C/T, putting Tugendhat out and Cleverly through - then Tugendhat's votes transfer mainly to Cleverly, giving the members a choice of Jenrick or Cleverly.

That's my guess too (and hope!).

That's what I am hoping/expecting too.

If that is what happens (she falls down the rankings as the centre-right vote coalesces), I suspect that Friends of KB are going to be furious.

Oh well.

Never mind.

Patel's votes were the best chance for her to close the gap on Jenrick, and she didn't close it by anything like enough.

Pagan2

FPT

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Omnium said:

Andy_JS said:

eek said:

Andy_JS said:

It's not just David Davis asking questions about this case.

"Letby’s conviction is unsafe, says Boris Johnson’s former science adviser
Evidence presented to the jury was so flawed as to make it not a fair trial, argues James Phillips"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/09/lucy-letby-conviction-unsafe-says-boris-johnson-adviser/

We discussed this earlier - and no one changed their opinions..

I always live in hope that people might change their opinions, generally speaking. 😊

People don't really have 'opinions' as we think of them though. It's only when discussing their thoughts that these ideas crystallise into iron wall certainties. Thus 'discussion groups' should all be locked up in discussion proof cells.

Obviously I'm not open to discussion on this - it's just my idea. I don't want to have an opinion.

Having a very strong opinion on a whole host of things is more vice than virtue. It's more likely to be a form of bigotry or attention seeking than a sign of intellect or discernment. There are exceptions to this but they are of the 'to the rule' variety.

That there is one of my stronger opinions because it's both derived from logic and backed up by my lived experience. When those 2 lemons align on something I tend to run with it.

Ah I see you have strong opinions because they are rational, others who have strong opinions you disagree with have them because they are stupid.

You wonder why so many rational people despise the left because of that thinking?

Northern_Al

MikeL said:

A shame Mel Stride is out.

Nobody gave him a chance but he comes across as the most sane, reasonable, balanced, moderate of the lot. And he's a team player - he did masses of interviews throughout GE. A bit like a kind uncle.

Maybe he would be a bit old - 63 in a few weeks, so at least 67 at next GE - but even so I think we would do the best with the public.

I would discount his poll ratings on the basis the public don't know him.

"the most sane, reasonable, balanced, moderate of the lot".
You've nailed it.
That's why he's out.

DavidL

Nigelb said:

Trump's latest crypto venture appears to rely on securities fraud to give him a payout.
https://x.com/JuddLegum/status/1833487398207996275

The wrinkle is, of course, that if he's re-elected President, he gets to redefine securities fraud.

Fun details:
..2. Trump is the "Chief Crypto Advocate" for the nascent venture, World Liberty Financial.

Donald Jr. and Eric are the company's "Web 3 Ambassadors."

18-year-old Barron Trump is World Liberty Financial's official "DeFi Visionary."..

Even at the current rock bottom stock price of around $19 a share Trump has something in excess of $2bn sitting in Trump Media & Technology Group. He gets to sell his shares later this month. His input into this business is a relatively modest social media operation that has never come close to making a profit and almost certainly never will. In a life long career of scamming and cheating others this is the veritable jackpot so it is hardly surprising that he is going to try to do it again. Its what he is.

GIN1138

Kemi looking stronger now! Previous thread header (that I didn't comment on) looking rather silly, lol!

viewcode

Taz said:

viewcode said:

This may be a good time to remind you that I have a fiver on Badenoch

At good odds ?

11/8. Returns will be £11.88 if she wins, a profit of £6.88

There's a funny story here. As you know I've started using the automated machines as a way of bypassing the talking-to-humans bit, and I didn't realise you had to specify the stake. I put a tenner in the machine and placed the bet, but as I hadn't specified the stake it used the default £5stake and an instant loss of £5. Still, cheap for a valuable learning experience...

Stuartinromford

Northern_Al said:

MikeL said:

A shame Mel Stride is out.

Nobody gave him a chance but he comes across as the most sane, reasonable, balanced, moderate of the lot. And he's a team player - he did masses of interviews throughout GE. A bit like a kind uncle.

Maybe he would be a bit old - 63 in a few weeks, so at least 67 at next GE - but even so I think we would do the best with the public.

I would discount his poll ratings on the basis the public don't know him.

"the most sane, reasonable, balanced, moderate of the lot".
You've nailed it.
That's why he's out.

Also, the Conservatives are still making a category error of thinking they are choosing a plausible Prime Minister for 2029. Someone whose policy agenda actually matters.

The reality is they are probably choosing someone to fix the worst of the damage to the party, bring on the youngsters, hope for the best but expect to hand over to someone else after losing less badly next time.

Recognise that, and both Patel and Stride make a lot more sense.

kinabalu

What a gripping event this is from a betting pov. Whoever says the Tories aren't interesting anymore is talking nonsense. It's better than a sprint handicap at Musselburgh. I've cashed in my Jenners but he remains a worthy fav imo. Surprised that Badenoch shortened on those numbers.

BartholomewRoberts

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.

TimS

GIN1138 said:

Kemi looking stronger now! Previous thread header (that I didn't comment on) looking rather silly, lol!

The transfers were coming from a right wing candidate dropping out though. Next round the transfers will come from a (relative) wet candidate dropping out. It’s a bit like tennis games going with or against serve. I’m not sure how many more transfers she can rely on in future rounds given Jenrick’s not going to be dropping out.

Stuartinromford

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.

It's people looking at the early declarations from an election without thinking about where those declarations are from.

BartholomewRoberts

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

GIN1138

I thought when Priti was eliminated she was blaming Kemi? Why would her supporters transfer to Kemi and not Jenrick?

The fact is, there's a huge amount of second guessing going on and nobody really know's what's going to happen lol!

Andy_JS

Excellent result for Badenoch. Can't see her not being one of the final two to go through to the membership.

viewcode

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I bet on her last week in Brighton. When I was at the RSS Conference. I may have mentioned that. 😃

GIN1138

Who's right? @BartholomewRoberts ? Or @Andy_JS ?

BartholomewRoberts

Andy_JS said:

Excellent result for Badenoch. Can't see her not being one of the final two to go through to the membership.

How?

With Stride and either Cleverly or Tugendhat to be transferred from here, how on earth is she going to beat the other of Cleverly and Tugendhat?

The numbers are quite clearly against her.

viewcode

GIN1138 said:

Who's right? @BartholomewRoberts ? Or @Andy_JS ?

There's only one way to find aaaht... 😃

Andy_JS

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

Did you like my general election spreadsheet as well? It predicted Lab 407, Con 127, LD 70, Ref 3. Shares were Lab 35.7%, Con 24.4%

Foxy

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She got the most from Priti, but Stride, TT and Cleverly are less obvious sources of more.

I think Jenrick a poor choice myself, and not likely to make a dent in either Refukkers or LDs, but hard to make a strong case for any of the others either.

rottenborough

MikeL said:

Right = Jenrick + Badenoch = 61
Moderate = Cleverly + Tugendhat + Stride = 58

So appears nailed on that final will be one from each wing - ie not Jenrick v Badenoch.

I dunno. The next stage is beauty parade at conference and big set-piece speeches.

Cameron completely changed the dynamic based on one speech (and a little help from a Frank Luntz focus group).

Maybe more MPs are persuadable than this maths seems to show?

rottenborough

PB seems split tonight between 'good result for Kemi' vs 'She's toast, look at who might transfer'.

Luckyguy1983

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Leon

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

BartholomewRoberts

Andy_JS said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

Did you like my general election spreadsheet as well? It predicted Lab 407, Con 127, LD 70, Ref 3. Shares were Lab 35.7%, Con 24.4%

Yeah I did which is why I was quite surprised by your comment that you can't see her not being in the final two, following the same principles of your sheets.

I can't see a path for her to beat Jenrick, or beat either of Cleverly/Tugendhat from here.

kinabalu

Andy_JS said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

Did you like my general election spreadsheet as well? It predicted Lab 407, Con 127, LD 70, Ref 3. Shares were Lab 35.7%, Con 24.4%

That is pretty damn good.

Luckyguy1983

Andy_JS said:

Excellent result for Badenoch. Can't see her not being one of the final two to go through to the membership.

Interesting. Do you think Badenoch vs. Jenrick is a possibility?

viewcode

Andy_JS said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

Did you like my general election spreadsheet as well? It predicted Lab 407, Con 127, LD 70, Ref 3. Shares were Lab 35.7%, Con 24.4%

...and Green 1 😎

BartholomewRoberts

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.

The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.

williamglenn

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

They also had a really brutal cartoon:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/sep/09/ben-jennings-labour-plan-winter-fuel-payments-to-pensioners-cartoon

GIN1138

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Some "one nation" Tories currently supporting Cleverly/Tugendhat and previously supporters of Stride may conclude that only she can stop Jenrick with the membership ballot?

Nigelb

rottenborough said:

MikeL said:

Right = Jenrick + Badenoch = 61
Moderate = Cleverly + Tugendhat + Stride = 58

So appears nailed on that final will be one from each wing - ie not Jenrick v Badenoch.

I dunno. The next stage is beauty parade at conference and big set-piece speeches.

Cameron completely changed the dynamic based on one speech (and a little help from a Frank Luntz focus group).

Maybe more MPs are persuadable than this maths seems to show?

I think there's a reasonable chance that might be true.

MPs, for obvious reasons, like to be seen to support the winner. In the unlikely event of one of this crew pulling off a barnstormer which sets the conference ablaze, it can hardly harm their chances.

Luckyguy1983

GIN1138 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Some "one nation" Tories currently supporting Cleverly/Tugendhat and previously supporters of Stride may conclude that only she can stop Jenrick with the membership ballot?

There will undoubtedly be some careerists who having backed one centrist loser see no merit in nobly backing another one, and decide to hold their nose and go right. I'd expect them to go to Jenrick not Badenoch, but you never know.

Leon

No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR


Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket

🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%

polymarket.com/elections

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

Leon

williamglenn said:

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

They also had a really brutal cartoon:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/sep/09/ben-jennings-labour-plan-winter-fuel-payments-to-pensioners-cartoon

And their very senior economics editor - Larry Elliot - gave them a kicking recently, as well. Quite remarkable

boulay

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

It’s risk free for the G. Labour have a few years with a hefty majority so no threat from the Tories so the Guardian can try to pressure Labour to be where the paper wants them to be. Look at how effective Owen Jones’s articles in the guardian have been at influencing…

noneoftheabove

GIN1138 said:

Who's right? @BartholomewRoberts ? Or @Andy_JS ?

Noneoftheabove.

TimS

BartholomewRoberts said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.

The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.

Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.

Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.

Andy_JS

"Badenoch spokesman: Kemi now has the momentum

A spokesman for Kemi Badenoch's said: "Kemi has the momentum - she’s putting on votes from across the party, has more shadow cabinet backers than the other candidates combined, and the independent polling shows she is overwhelmingly the choice of the party membership."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/10/politics-latest-news-winter-fuel-tory-leadership-contest/

kinabalu

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

This may be a good time to remind you that I have a fiver on Badenoch

At good odds ?

11/8. Returns will be £11.88 if she wins, a profit of £6.88

There's a funny story here. As you know I've started using the automated machines as a way of bypassing the talking-to-humans bit, and I didn't realise you had to specify the stake. I put a tenner in the machine and placed the bet, but as I hadn't specified the stake it used the default £5stake and an instant loss of £5. Still, cheap for a valuable learning experience...

Did you not get £5 change? That's absolutely gut wrenching. If she wins you'll only make £1.88 for a shrewd call. What sort of world is it where this can happen?

BartholomewRoberts

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

The Guardian are pretty much the definition of "not happy unless complaining".

Jeremy Corbyn could have won a landslide and the Grauniad would have complained afterwards.

Foxy

TimS said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.

The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.

Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.

Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.

She needs to have a good Conference. She is streets ahead of Jenrick at public speaking, and Conference loves a bit of tubthumping, so the last 2 could well be her and Jenrick.

Luckyguy1983

TimS said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.

The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.

Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.

Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.

I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.

GIN1138

Andy_JS said:

"Badenoch spokesman: Kemi now has the momentum

A spokesman for Kemi Badenoch's said: "Kemi has the momentum - she’s putting on votes from across the party, has more shadow cabinet backers than the other candidates combined, and the independent polling shows she is overwhelmingly the choice of the party membership."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/10/politics-latest-news-winter-fuel-tory-leadership-contest/

They should just give it to Kemi now and get on with opposing Labour!

rottenborough

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

Reeves has had a shite start and appears to have been completely captured by Treasury mindset. So I agree with John Harris. It is all looking grimly depressing as far as progress on repairing the mess and as he says, applying some imagination to the tax system.

If they fail to sort out the public services and local council mess then Labour will have failed and Farage will be ready and waiting in 2028.

kinabalu

Leon said:

No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR

Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket

🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%

polymarket.com/elections

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.

Harris is winning this election.

mercator

kinabalu said:

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

This may be a good time to remind you that I have a fiver on Badenoch

At good odds ?

11/8. Returns will be £11.88 if she wins, a profit of £6.88

There's a funny story here. As you know I've started using the automated machines as a way of bypassing the talking-to-humans bit, and I didn't realise you had to specify the stake. I put a tenner in the machine and placed the bet, but as I hadn't specified the stake it used the default £5stake and an instant loss of £5. Still, cheap for a valuable learning experience...

Did you not get £5 change? That's absolutely gut wrenching. If she wins you'll only make £1.88 for a shrewd call. What sort of world is it where this can happen?

Or at least there should be another 5gbp bet available. Otherwise this is the great scandal of our times

I always like to have someone ahead of me on these sorts of occasions so I can study and learn from their example. The trouble with this technique is it looks as if I am trying to see their PIN.

Luckyguy1983

Foxy said:

TimS said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.

The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.

Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.

Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.

She needs to have a good Conference. She is streets ahead of Jenrick at public speaking, and Conference loves a bit of tubthumping, so the last 2 could well be her and Jenrick.

I think Jenrick will be pretty good at delivering a scripted set-piece speech. Kemi has more to gain but also more to lose - a la Penny.

Stuartinromford

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

The Guardian are pretty much the definition of "not happy unless complaining".

Jeremy Corbyn could have won a landslide and the Grauniad would have complained afterwards.

Anyone remember when they started moaning in '97?

(Ian Hislop was good on this in a recent Private Eye podcast. We think of Blair having a long honeymoon, but the Ecclestone scandal was pretty early on.)

Leon

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR

Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket

🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%

polymarket.com/elections

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.

Harris is winning this election.

Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMOR

I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains

Andy_JS

MikeL said:

Right = Jenrick + Badenoch = 61
Moderate = Cleverly + Tugendhat + Stride = 58

So appears nailed on that final will be one from each wing - ie not Jenrick v Badenoch.

As someone else has already posted, this assumes all the votes are genuine and not tactical.

FF43

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.

If MPs want to prevent members from voting for the worst candidate by a margin, Jenrick, they could pile on Badenoch plus another, probably Cleverly. Not sure Tory MPs are as cunningly devious as their reputation however.

Foxy

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR

Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket

🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%

polymarket.com/elections

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.

Harris is winning this election.

Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMOR

I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains

Polymarket is 25% owned by Theil, Vance's svengali.

Muesli

GIN1138 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Some "one nation" Tories currently supporting Cleverly/Tugendhat and previously supporters of Stride may conclude that only she can stop Jenrick with the membership ballot?

There may be some slim chance of her attracting support from the centre by positioning herself as the Stop Jenrick candidate. Unfortunately for her, there's no chance of her shoring up that support by positioning herself as the Stop Badenoch candidate too.

Surprised to see the level of Cleverly ramping going on after this result. He's clearly the best candidate left (never a reliable indicator of likely success in a Tory leadership election) but the numbers aren't with him. 21 votes in the first round, 21 votes in the second round. He's stalled.

GIN1138

Stuartinromford said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

The Guardian are pretty much the definition of "not happy unless complaining".

Jeremy Corbyn could have won a landslide and the Grauniad would have complained afterwards.

Anyone remember when they started moaning in '97?

(Ian Hislop was good on this in a recent Private Eye podcast. We think of Blair having a long honeymoon, but the Ecclestone scandal was pretty early on.)

That did nothing to dent Labour/Blairs polling though.

From (albeit very limited number of recent polls) we can see Labours polling position is already heading south...

rottenborough

FF43 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.

If MPs want to prevent members from voting for the worst candidate by a margin, Jenrick, they could pile on Badenoch plus another, probably Cleverly. Not sure Tory MPs are as cunningly devious as their reputation however.

I don't understand how Jenrick is getting 33 votes. They'd be mad to elect him leader. Why?

mercator

Leon said:

No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR


Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket

🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%

polymarket.com/elections

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

Polymarket is a sort of hybrid of Betfair exchange and PB. They put interesting stuff on substack https://news.polymarket.com/

RobD

FF43 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.

If MPs want to prevent members from voting for the worst candidate by a margin, Jenrick, they could pile on Badenoch plus another, probably Cleverly. Not sure Tory MPs are as cunningly devious as their reputation however.

Surely they'd do that when they are down to three candidates, not before.

noneoftheabove

rottenborough said:

FF43 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.

If MPs want to prevent members from voting for the worst candidate by a margin, Jenrick, they could pile on Badenoch plus another, probably Cleverly. Not sure Tory MPs are as cunningly devious as their reputation however.

I don't understand how Jenrick is getting 33 votes. They'd be mad to elect him leader. Why?

They have seen the alternatives of Badenoch, Stride, Patel, The Hat and analysed it cleverley.

No_Offence_Alan

rottenborough said:

FF43 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.

If MPs want to prevent members from voting for the worst candidate by a margin, Jenrick, they could pile on Badenoch plus another, probably Cleverly. Not sure Tory MPs are as cunningly devious as their reputation however.

I don't understand how Jenrick is getting 33 votes. They'd be mad to elect him leader. Why?

86 aren't.

FF43

RobD said:

FF43 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.

If MPs want to prevent members from voting for the worst candidate by a margin, Jenrick, they could pile on Badenoch plus another, probably Cleverly. Not sure Tory MPs are as cunningly devious as their reputation however.

Surely they'd do that when they are down to three candidates, not before.

Yes. If it happens.

rcs1000

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

This may be a good time to remind you that I have a fiver on Badenoch

At good odds ?

11/8. Returns will be £11.88 if she wins, a profit of £6.88

There's a funny story here. As you know I've started using the automated machines as a way of bypassing the talking-to-humans bit, and I didn't realise you had to specify the stake. I put a tenner in the machine and placed the bet, but as I hadn't specified the stake it used the default £5stake and an instant loss of £5. Still, cheap for a valuable learning experience...

Wait.

It just stole the other £5. That can't be legal.

FF43

noneoftheabove said:

rottenborough said:

FF43 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.

If MPs want to prevent members from voting for the worst candidate by a margin, Jenrick, they could pile on Badenoch plus another, probably Cleverly. Not sure Tory MPs are as cunningly devious as their reputation however.

I don't understand how Jenrick is getting 33 votes. They'd be mad to elect him leader. Why?

They have seen the alternatives of Badenoch, Stride, Patel, The Hat and analysed it cleverley.

Kemi is bad enough but Jenrick is surely worse?

Stuartinromford

rottenborough said:

FF43 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.

If MPs want to prevent members from voting for the worst candidate by a margin, Jenrick, they could pile on Badenoch plus another, probably Cleverly. Not sure Tory MPs are as cunningly devious as their reputation however.

I don't understand how Jenrick is getting 33 votes. They'd be mad to elect him leader. Why?

There's an obvious answer to that question, which is the one you give.

(That's slightly harsh in search of a cheap laugh. If your train of thought starts at 'the Conservative problem was the government's softness on immigration leading to defections to Reform', Jenrick Central probably is your final station stop. In a way, it's harder to work out the question to which Badenoch is the answer.)

rcs1000

Leon said:

No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR


Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket

🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%

polymarket.com/elections

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

Polymarket are an American Betfair; those number are implied probabilities, not poll shares.

And, fwiw, look about right - i.e. Trump ahead, but it's still largely a toss up.

TimS

Muesli said:

GIN1138 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Some "one nation" Tories currently supporting Cleverly/Tugendhat and previously supporters of Stride may conclude that only she can stop Jenrick with the membership ballot?

There may be some slim chance of her attracting support from the centre by positioning herself as the Stop Jenrick candidate. Unfortunately for her, there's no chance of her shoring up that support by positioning herself as the Stop Badenoch candidate too.

Surprised to see the level of Cleverly ramping going on after this result. He's clearly the best candidate left (never a reliable indicator of likely success in a Tory leadership election) but the numbers aren't with him. 21 votes in the first round, 21 votes in the second round. He's stalled.

But the Patel/Cleverly venn diagram isn’t likely to be very heavily overlapping. The Stride/Cleverly avuncularity venn diagram on the other hand. Decent chance of switchers.

noneoftheabove

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

Lets face it, if there was instead a "Travel to work grant" of £300 to everyone aged between 35 and 55 to encourage productivity, which we couldn't possibly means test and it was now being withdrawn the Guardian et al would be complaining about it being taken away and how harsh the government was being. And it would be equally unnecessary. The aim of regular government support* has to be helping the poorest in society, perhaps up to the poorest quarter or so. It can't be free cash for the richest.

* Exceptions to support the economy for things like covid or indeed the very abrupt energy price spike after the Ukrainian invasion are fine.

No_Offence_Alan

rottenborough said:

MikeL said:

Right = Jenrick + Badenoch = 61
Moderate = Cleverly + Tugendhat + Stride = 58

So appears nailed on that final will be one from each wing - ie not Jenrick v Badenoch.

I dunno. The next stage is beauty parade at conference and big set-piece speeches.

Cameron completely changed the dynamic based on one speech (and a little help from a Frank Luntz focus group).

Maybe more MPs are persuadable than this maths seems to show?

Badenoch can give a good speech.
Less good when some-one interrupts her with common sense or reality though.

Taz

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

This may be a good time to remind you that I have a fiver on Badenoch

At good odds ?

11/8. Returns will be £11.88 if she wins, a profit of £6.88

There's a funny story here. As you know I've started using the automated machines as a way of bypassing the talking-to-humans bit, and I didn't realise you had to specify the stake. I put a tenner in the machine and placed the bet, but as I hadn't specified the stake it used the default £5stake and an instant loss of £5. Still, cheap for a valuable learning experience...

It didn’t return your fiver ?

Stuartinromford

TimS said:

Muesli said:

GIN1138 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Some "one nation" Tories currently supporting Cleverly/Tugendhat and previously supporters of Stride may conclude that only she can stop Jenrick with the membership ballot?

There may be some slim chance of her attracting support from the centre by positioning herself as the Stop Jenrick candidate. Unfortunately for her, there's no chance of her shoring up that support by positioning herself as the Stop Badenoch candidate too.

Surprised to see the level of Cleverly ramping going on after this result. He's clearly the best candidate left (never a reliable indicator of likely success in a Tory leadership election) but the numbers aren't with him. 21 votes in the first round, 21 votes in the second round. He's stalled.

But the Patel/Cleverly vent diagram isn’t likely to be very heavily overlapping. The Stride/Cleverly avuncularity venn diagram on the other hand. Decent chance of switchers.

The banter outcome from here is definitely Tom +8, Jim +8, Kemi out next round.

Anyone tracking if we are still in the banterverse?

TimS

GIN1138 said:

Stuartinromford said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

The Guardian are pretty much the definition of "not happy unless complaining".

Jeremy Corbyn could have won a landslide and the Grauniad would have complained afterwards.

Anyone remember when they started moaning in '97?

(Ian Hislop was good on this in a recent Private Eye podcast. We think of Blair having a long honeymoon, but the Ecclestone scandal was pretty early on.)

That did nothing to dent Labour/Blairs polling though.

From (albeit very limited number of recent polls) we can see Labours polling position is already heading south...

The fuel protests were Blair’s first real polling dent. Short lived though. Sort of mixture of this summers riots and the WFA controversy, as they focused on fuel duty rises.

TimS

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

Muesli said:

GIN1138 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Some "one nation" Tories currently supporting Cleverly/Tugendhat and previously supporters of Stride may conclude that only she can stop Jenrick with the membership ballot?

There may be some slim chance of her attracting support from the centre by positioning herself as the Stop Jenrick candidate. Unfortunately for her, there's no chance of her shoring up that support by positioning herself as the Stop Badenoch candidate too.

Surprised to see the level of Cleverly ramping going on after this result. He's clearly the best candidate left (never a reliable indicator of likely success in a Tory leadership election) but the numbers aren't with him. 21 votes in the first round, 21 votes in the second round. He's stalled.

But the Patel/Cleverly vent diagram isn’t likely to be very heavily overlapping. The Stride/Cleverly avuncularity venn diagram on the other hand. Decent chance of switchers.

The banter outcome from here is definitely Tom +8, Jim +8, Kemi out next round.

Anyone tracking if we are still in the banterverse?

No, I think that ended a while back I’m afraid. Like brat summer.

nico679

Jenrick looks like a prefect who hasn’t done a days work in his life . Very slimy .

noneoftheabove

FF43 said:

noneoftheabove said:

rottenborough said:

FF43 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.

If MPs want to prevent members from voting for the worst candidate by a margin, Jenrick, they could pile on Badenoch plus another, probably Cleverly. Not sure Tory MPs are as cunningly devious as their reputation however.

I don't understand how Jenrick is getting 33 votes. They'd be mad to elect him leader. Why?

They have seen the alternatives of Badenoch, Stride, Patel, The Hat and analysed it cleverley.

Kemi is bad enough but Jenrick is surely worse?

I've lost interest in it to be fair. A bit like UKIP leaders, too many and too inconsequential. Trumpyland vs Democracy is where its at.

Andy_JS

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

Muesli said:

GIN1138 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Some "one nation" Tories currently supporting Cleverly/Tugendhat and previously supporters of Stride may conclude that only she can stop Jenrick with the membership ballot?

There may be some slim chance of her attracting support from the centre by positioning herself as the Stop Jenrick candidate. Unfortunately for her, there's no chance of her shoring up that support by positioning herself as the Stop Badenoch candidate too.

Surprised to see the level of Cleverly ramping going on after this result. He's clearly the best candidate left (never a reliable indicator of likely success in a Tory leadership election) but the numbers aren't with him. 21 votes in the first round, 21 votes in the second round. He's stalled.

But the Patel/Cleverly vent diagram isn’t likely to be very heavily overlapping. The Stride/Cleverly avuncularity venn diagram on the other hand. Decent chance of switchers.

The banter outcome from here is definitely Tom +8, Jim +8, Kemi out next round.

Anyone tracking if we are still in the banterverse?

Kemi will probably pick up a few Stride supporters even if you might not expect that to happen.

Stuartinromford

noneoftheabove said:

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

Lets face it, if there was instead a "Travel to work grant" of £300 to everyone aged between 35 and 55 to encourage productivity, which we couldn't possibly means test and it was now being withdrawn the Guardian et al would be complaining about it being taken away and how harsh the government was being. And it would be equally unnecessary. The aim of regular government support* has to be helping the poorest in society, perhaps up to the poorest quarter or so. It can't be free cash for the richest.

* Exceptions to support the economy for things like covid or indeed the very abrupt energy price spike after the Ukrainian invasion are fine.

There's a reasonably legit case for highish universal benefits, as long as they are coupled with highish and fairly progressive taxes to fund them. Lots of something for something.

The catch is that the voters have repeatedly made it clear that they aren't keen on lowish means tested benefits but they really don't like highish taxes.

What the voters actually want is basically to deny arithmetic. Which is why government is hard.

kinabalu

boulay said:

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

It’s risk free for the G. Labour have a few years with a hefty majority so no threat from the Tories so the Guardian can try to pressure Labour to be where the paper wants them to be. Look at how effective Owen Jones’s articles in the guardian have been at influencing…

People are not quite getting it. Starmer's position is structurally strong. Not so much because of the big majority, although that helps, but because there's no serious electoral threat to his left.

This means he can double down on 'Labour sounder than the Cons with the public finances'. He does that and it beds in Labour as the preferred party of the floating voters of middle England.

Unless the Tories get that 'best with money' moniker back they aren't winning the next election. They're competing with the LDs for 2nd if they detox or with RUK if they lurch right.

Meanwhile Starmer, having established his bona fides as not a drunken sailor can do some quite progressive things that will also be popular. He has to prove competent, of course, but if he does, and absent black swans, GE28/29 is in the bag.

Golfing analogy needed for this 'no threat from the left' point? Yes ok. Those who play the game will know that if you never ever hook the ball off the tee it takes all the trouble on the left out of the equation. Driving becomes so much easier then. You just guard against the slice and you're bound to be in good shape.

That's where Starmer is. Tonking it down the middle.

mercator

TimS said:

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

Muesli said:

GIN1138 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Some "one nation" Tories currently supporting Cleverly/Tugendhat and previously supporters of Stride may conclude that only she can stop Jenrick with the membership ballot?

There may be some slim chance of her attracting support from the centre by positioning herself as the Stop Jenrick candidate. Unfortunately for her, there's no chance of her shoring up that support by positioning herself as the Stop Badenoch candidate too.

Surprised to see the level of Cleverly ramping going on after this result. He's clearly the best candidate left (never a reliable indicator of likely success in a Tory leadership election) but the numbers aren't with him. 21 votes in the first round, 21 votes in the second round. He's stalled.

But the Patel/Cleverly vent diagram isn’t likely to be very heavily overlapping. The Stride/Cleverly avuncularity venn diagram on the other hand. Decent chance of switchers.

The banter outcome from here is definitely Tom +8, Jim +8, Kemi out next round.

Anyone tracking if we are still in the banterverse?

No, I think that ended a while back I’m afraid. Like brat summer.

Today I learned that japan divides the year into 72 kos, microseasons. So there's presumably a ko for Still summer but you can't bowl quick at the Oval after 3 o'clock, Not quite autumn but have some horticultural fleece to hand etc.

Stuartinromford

TimS said:

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

Muesli said:

GIN1138 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Some "one nation" Tories currently supporting Cleverly/Tugendhat and previously supporters of Stride may conclude that only she can stop Jenrick with the membership ballot?

There may be some slim chance of her attracting support from the centre by positioning herself as the Stop Jenrick candidate. Unfortunately for her, there's no chance of her shoring up that support by positioning herself as the Stop Badenoch candidate too.

Surprised to see the level of Cleverly ramping going on after this result. He's clearly the best candidate left (never a reliable indicator of likely success in a Tory leadership election) but the numbers aren't with him. 21 votes in the first round, 21 votes in the second round. He's stalled.

But the Patel/Cleverly vent diagram isn’t likely to be very heavily overlapping. The Stride/Cleverly avuncularity venn diagram on the other hand. Decent chance of switchers.

The banter outcome from here is definitely Tom +8, Jim +8, Kemi out next round.

Anyone tracking if we are still in the banterverse?

No, I think that ended a while back I’m afraid. Like brat summer.

Dunno. The contradictory strands of July 4th, where you can make a case for everyone except Ed Davey failing, were pretty bantertastic.

ydoethur

Stuartinromford said:

noneoftheabove said:

Leon said:

Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

Also this on the same page

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson

Lets face it, if there was instead a "Travel to work grant" of £300 to everyone aged between 35 and 55 to encourage productivity, which we couldn't possibly means test and it was now being withdrawn the Guardian et al would be complaining about it being taken away and how harsh the government was being. And it would be equally unnecessary. The aim of regular government support* has to be helping the poorest in society, perhaps up to the poorest quarter or so. It can't be free cash for the richest.

* Exceptions to support the economy for things like covid or indeed the very abrupt energy price spike after the Ukrainian invasion are fine.

There's a reasonably legit case for highish universal benefits, as long as they are coupled with highish and fairly progressive taxes to fund them. Lots of something for something.

The catch is that the voters have repeatedly made it clear that they aren't keen on lowish means tested benefits but they really don't like highish taxes.

What the voters actually want is basically to deny arithmetic. Which is why government is hard.

Alexander Fraser Tytler was on that two and a half centuries ago.

If his ghost ever looks at California, he must feel very smug.

But we can't any more...

moonshine

What did I miss about Badenoch that has turned off so many on here? She left a bigger mark on me than Jenrick, or even Cleverly, who remains fairly anonymous in my memory bank despite holding the big briefs.

kinabalu

mercator said:

TimS said:

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

Muesli said:

GIN1138 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.

Some "one nation" Tories currently supporting Cleverly/Tugendhat and previously supporters of Stride may conclude that only she can stop Jenrick with the membership ballot?

There may be some slim chance of her attracting support from the centre by positioning herself as the Stop Jenrick candidate. Unfortunately for her, there's no chance of her shoring up that support by positioning herself as the Stop Badenoch candidate too.

Surprised to see the level of Cleverly ramping going on after this result. He's clearly the best candidate left (never a reliable indicator of likely success in a Tory leadership election) but the numbers aren't with him. 21 votes in the first round, 21 votes in the second round. He's stalled.

But the Patel/Cleverly vent diagram isn’t likely to be very heavily overlapping. The Stride/Cleverly avuncularity venn diagram on the other hand. Decent chance of switchers.

The banter outcome from here is definitely Tom +8, Jim +8, Kemi out next round.

Anyone tracking if we are still in the banterverse?

No, I think that ended a while back I’m afraid. Like brat summer.

Today I learned that japan divides the year into 72 kos, microseasons. So there's presumably a ko for Still summer but you can't bowl quick at the Oval after 3 o'clock, Not quite autumn but have some horticultural fleece to hand etc.

Yes that's precisely where we are. It's nice but fleeting.

Leon

The point about the guardian attack on Labour is not that they’re doing it - esp over WFA - but that they are doing it in a number of different ways and with different high profile journalists. And they are also lacing it with personally offensive stuff - like the cartoon linked above and marina hyde being remarkably mean about Starmer and his puritan ways

They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular

That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc

eg one of the most subtle but effective hatchet jobs on Starmer was written in the guardian BEFORE the election. That weird interview where he admitted he didn’t dream, spoke about himself in the third person, and came across as quite unlikeable. That now seems deliberate

Someone at guardian towers - someone very high up - has an “issue” with the Labour leadership