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Jenrick is still on top but it’s tight – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888

    Is there a chance Trump literally poos his pants tonight?

    Quite probably, but it is under control. Can Kamala contain her composure when the aroma takes over?

    https://youtu.be/o_KsI_wkKgI?si=tWtovk3VEdbivoj3
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934

    Is there a chance Trump literally poos his pants tonight?

    He'll be fine - as long as Man-Pampers can survive the Poo-nami.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 620
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

    This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



    “Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

    Also this on the same page

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

    Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

    Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson



    They also had a really brutal cartoon:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/sep/09/ben-jennings-labour-plan-winter-fuel-payments-to-pensioners-cartoon
    And their very senior economics editor - Larry Elliot - gave them a kicking recently, as well. Quite remarkable

    The Guardian is becoming more and more like the Spectator in it's heyday, you have to fuck the editor to get a column.
    Apart from Rowson , the cartoonists are turgid, Steve Bell would have moulded Starmer into his satirical caricature by now.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Is there a chance Trump literally poos his pants tonight?

    Quite probably, but it is under control. Can Kamala contain her composure when the aroma takes over?

    https://youtu.be/o_KsI_wkKgI?si=tWtovk3VEdbivoj3
    That might indeed be the greater challenge. She should drown herself in perfume as a preemptive strike.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888

    Is there a chance Trump literally poos his pants tonight?

    He'll be fine - as long as Man-Pampers can survive the Poo-nami.
    Even if he doesn't crap his pants his diapers will still contain a turd!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,807

    Is there a chance Trump literally poos his pants tonight?

    He'll be fine - as long as Man-Pampers can survive the Poo-nami.
    Even if he doesn't crap his pants his diapers will still contain a turd!
    I hope 'Gettingbetter' doesn't read these posts; he'll have quite a turn.
  • mercator said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

    Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

    I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.
    Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.

    The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
    Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.

    Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.
    I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.
    Badenoch isn't right wing from where you're viewing then?
    I don't find her Ministerial career to demonstrate particularly strong right wing instincts. I think she is quite a good right wing commentry provider, but so were Cameron and Osborne in their day - always picking public fights with the EU followed by private capitulations. Nobody (expect idiots) classes those two as right wing Tories these days.

    I would rather a thoughtful right winger who speaks a little less but means it. I wouldn't mind if she won, but it wouldn't particularly surprise me if she won power then failed to deliver.
    I sense someone hankering for a Joseph or a Redwood. Just not on offer, I'm afraid. Not here in 2024. The right are all a bit agricultural now.
    I feel fairly comfortable with Jenrick. Even his corrupt stuff I don't really mind. I prefer the small scale troughing of a Johnson or a Jenrick to Tony Blair ending up with a multi-million pound Laurence Ellison-funded foundation without a stain on his character, or Sunak handing millions of pounds to a company his investment fund is balls deep in and it all being fine because it's a 'blind trust'. Those are the people you really have to watch out for.
    Johnson a small scale trougher?

    Can I interest you in this 1:20 scale model of a bridge?
    What is this? A bridge for ANTS?? It needs to be at least... 3 times bigger!
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver

    This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris



    “Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance

    Also this on the same page

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment

    Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?

    Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson



    They also had a really brutal cartoon:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/sep/09/ben-jennings-labour-plan-winter-fuel-payments-to-pensioners-cartoon
    And their very senior economics editor - Larry Elliot - gave them a kicking recently, as well. Quite remarkable

    The Guardian is becoming more and more like the Spectator in it's heyday, you have to fuck the editor to get a column.
    Apart from Rowson , the cartoonists are turgid, Steve Bell would have moulded Starmer into his satirical caricature by now.
    You joke, which is more than any guardian cartoonist has ever managed. Bell was so unfunny and so antisemitic that the paper actually noticed, and Scarfe was nailed by Private Eye in a parody captioned This is Mrs Thatcher. I hate her. Guardian ed policy is, don't try to be clever or funny - this is far too serious.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    After Vorders - Jonathan Pie;

    Jonathan Pie
    @JonathanPieNews
    I have to admit, I never predicted that one of Labour’s first actions would involve Parliament voting on whether or not to take winter fuel payments away from pensioners. Starmer’s really hit us all with a curveball there.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR

    Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket

    🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 45%

    polymarket.com/elections

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.

    Harris is winning this election.
    Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMOR

    I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
    In Washington state? Strongly Trump country
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882
    edited September 10

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    I'm getting a naked digital landline for free, with expensive PAYG calls, or a couple of possible packages. So I'll need to look at third parties who bring calls in over the broadband, which is the way my TV comes in.

    It just went from £71 to £25 per months with the same provider.

    I've just been chatting with a friend who still has her phone hard wired into the wall, and has never even had a phone socket :smile: .
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    DavidL said:

    1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.

    why is there a pattern of the more north you go the more people of European decsent seem to be affected by alcoholism. the same is even true in the states, where Wisconsin has a worse problem than southern states.
  • Problems building new homes in Wales!!!

    Affordable homes plan refused amid fears 'non-Welsh speakers' would move in

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/affordable-homes-plan-refused-amid-29903994#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    GIN1138 said:

    After Vorders - Jonathan Pie;

    Jonathan Pie
    @JonathanPieNews
    I have to admit, I never predicted that one of Labour’s first actions would involve Parliament voting on whether or not to take winter fuel payments away from pensioners. Starmer’s really hit us all with a curveball there.

    Just wait till the budget. A lot of leftys in particular are about to discover that it is easy to snipe from the sidelines, quite a bit harder to actually govern and take the tough decisions.
  • MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    I'm getting a naked digital landline for free, with expensive PAYG calls, or a couple of possible packages. So I'll need to look at third parties who bring calls in over the broadband, which is the way my TV comes in.

    It just went from £71 to £25 per months with the same provider.

    I've just been chatting with a friend who still has her phone hard wired into the wall, and has never even had a phone socket :smile: .
    We have a digital landline with BT but never use it and rarely receive incoming calls

    It is just there in an emergency
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Nunu5 said:

    DavidL said:

    1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.

    why is there a pattern of the more north you go the more people of European decsent seem to be affected by alcoholism. the same is even true in the states, where Wisconsin has a worse problem than southern states.
    It's the winters. Nothing to do except drink spirits, and carve walrus tusks.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888
    ...

    Is there a chance Trump literally poos his pants tonight?

    He'll be fine - as long as Man-Pampers can survive the Poo-nami.
    Even if he doesn't crap his pants his diapers will still contain a turd!
    I hope 'Gettingbetter' doesn't read these posts; he'll have quite a turn.
    I do apologise Luckyguy, but when Trump's critique of Biden was he was unsuitable to be POTUS because he couldn't control his faculties (like speech and perambulation). Meanwhile Trump has bowel and bladder control issues according to the Lincoln Project.
  • mercator said:

    GIN1138 said:

    After Vorders - Jonathan Pie;

    Jonathan Pie
    @JonathanPieNews
    I have to admit, I never predicted that one of Labour’s first actions would involve Parliament voting on whether or not to take winter fuel payments away from pensioners. Starmer’s really hit us all with a curveball there.

    The view from the right: the abolition of WFA was entirely understandable, justifiable and, in a perfect world, hardly controversial. But bloody hell it's fun pretending otherwise.

    I hope I didn't say that out loud.
    The divide will be mostly on age rather than party preference. Under 50s approve, over 65s oppose and in between they are split.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    I'm getting a naked digital landline for free, with expensive PAYG calls, or a couple of possible packages. So I'll need to look at third parties who bring calls in over the broadband, which is the way my TV comes in.

    It just went from £71 to £25 per months with the same provider.

    I've just been chatting with a friend who still has her phone hard wired into the wall, and has never even had a phone socket :smile: .
    We have a digital landline with BT but never use it and rarely receive incoming calls

    It is just there in an emergency
    I binned mine 2 years ago after realising I only ever got scammers calling it
  • Nunu5 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    After Vorders - Jonathan Pie;

    Jonathan Pie
    @JonathanPieNews
    I have to admit, I never predicted that one of Labour’s first actions would involve Parliament voting on whether or not to take winter fuel payments away from pensioners. Starmer’s really hit us all with a curveball there.

    Just wait till the budget. A lot of leftys in particular are about to discover that it is easy to snipe from the sidelines, quite a bit harder to actually govern and take the tough decisions.
    I agree, we finally have a government willing to take some tough decisions rather than chase tomorrows headlines. That in itself is a major improvement.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    edited September 10

    Is there a chance Trump literally poos his pants tonight?

    would we know about it if he did? would be a way to put Kamala off....
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,053

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    Cash still have some uses. Unless you are in a rural deadspot, a landlines only function is to enable GP receptionists to phone a defunct number to avoid actually arranging an appointment with a patient, whilst insisting they have, and that the patient didn’t turn up for their arranged appointment. Or is that just my surgery?
  • Nunu5 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    After Vorders - Jonathan Pie;

    Jonathan Pie
    @JonathanPieNews
    I have to admit, I never predicted that one of Labour’s first actions would involve Parliament voting on whether or not to take winter fuel payments away from pensioners. Starmer’s really hit us all with a curveball there.

    Just wait till the budget. A lot of leftys in particular are about to discover that it is easy to snipe from the sidelines, quite a bit harder to actually govern and take the tough decisions.
    True dat.

    Two caveats, though.

    It's a sign of how rubbish the Conservative party has been for years that they haven't taken these tough decisions while they were in office. (See the WFA proposal of 2017.) For all the bunfights to come, Conservatives ought to be quietly thanking Reeves for every bit of fiscal balancing she can squeeze out of the system.

    And sniping from the sidelines is fun. But it's also fundamentally pointless.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    DavidL said:

    1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.

    Yesterday? Or is that for the whole week? Not so shocking if it's a whole week.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976

    Problems building new homes in Wales!!!

    Affordable homes plan refused amid fears 'non-Welsh speakers' would move in

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/affordable-homes-plan-refused-amid-29903994#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

    it shouldn't be in their power to stop them.
  • mercator said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    I'm getting a naked digital landline for free, with expensive PAYG calls, or a couple of possible packages. So I'll need to look at third parties who bring calls in over the broadband, which is the way my TV comes in.

    It just went from £71 to £25 per months with the same provider.

    I've just been chatting with a friend who still has her phone hard wired into the wall, and has never even had a phone socket :smile: .
    We have a digital landline with BT but never use it and rarely receive incoming calls

    It is just there in an emergency
    I binned mine 2 years ago after realising I only ever got scammers calling it
    I don't even get that now
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888

    Problems building new homes in Wales!!!

    Affordable homes plan refused amid fears 'non-Welsh speakers' would move in

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/affordable-homes-plan-refused-amid-29903994#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

    Quite right too. We don't want any old riff-raff here in the Vale.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    I will not be watching the debate tonight. Instead, I will be at the cinema watching the new Beetlejuice movie.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 620
    FF43 said:

    carnforth said:

    moonshine said:

    What did I miss about Badenoch that has turned off so many on here? She left a bigger mark on me than Jenrick, or even Cleverly, who remains fairly anonymous in my memory bank despite holding the big briefs.

    When someone is known for being a plain speaker there are two possibilities: they're a plain speaker, or they're hiding nutjob beliefs, and the plain speaking is really a sanitised version.

    Kemi gives off possible inner-nutjob vibes.
    I don't think Badenoch is a nut job. She is I think quite intelligent. There are fleeting moments where you think she has some insight. She lacks empathy but honestly none of them do well in that department. She is arrogant and pointlessly aggressive, pissing off people she wants on her side.

    But the killer in my view is she's lazy. You can't get away with that as a leader of a major party. Unless you are Boris Johnson. And even then, only for a while.
    I don't think you can be lazy as LOTO, as PM Johnson probably could have managed it but for his support of the indefensible.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882

    Problems building new homes in Wales!!!

    Affordable homes plan refused amid fears 'non-Welsh speakers' would move in

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/affordable-homes-plan-refused-amid-29903994#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

    I'd say it's a hiding to nothing. If I have the right Botwnnog (Gwynedd), the claim is that 18 socially rented houses will overwhelm a "hamlet" (!) of 966 people which already has a Welsh language playgroup, a Welsh medium primary school, and a bilingual Comp, by poisoning the Welsh speaking with English.

    The roll of the primary and secondary are from 75% Welsh speaking homes, and 98% of the secondary pupils speak fluent Welsh, with teaching in Welsh in the main.

    I think that the Welsh version of the Planning Inspectorate will call BS.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botwnnog
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    After Stride was knocked out today it was a good result in the latest stage of the Tory leadership result for Jenrick who is still a clear first. OK for Badenoch who kept second and expanded her lead over Cleverly and OK for Tugendhat who stayed in and will hope to take most Stride votes.

    Not great for Cleverly though who failed to get any more MPs backing him than in the first round and is at risk of going out in the next round. He will need to wow conference and pick up some Stride supporters
  • rcs1000 said:

    I will not be watching the debate tonight. Instead, I will be at the cinema watching the new Beetlejuice movie.

    So you didnt fancy watching a tragic dark comedy horror show then?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,053
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.

    Counterfactual is the problem. How many more would it have been without minimum pricing?

    (I don't know the answer but you have to be careful with such things)
    True, and there was an improvement in the early years. For me, the policy was flawed because it was not generating the income to pay for making good the damage caused by alcohol. I would far rather have higher duties than minimum pricing which simply lines the retailer's pockets. If that money was hypothecated to clinics helping people to dry out and public health messaging so much he better.
    Scotland’s increasing drink and drugs problem is not surprising. Since 2014, there has been no prospect of independence. The Scottish Government has been too busy implementing policies of no use to anyone wanting to better themselves, who don’t want to see their limited budget spent on expensive green energy, woke rubbish and vanity projects. And the weather’s shite. Lack of opportunity leads to lack of optimism, which leads to ways of trying to forget how miserable and depressing life now is. It will be no better under Labour.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    Nunu5 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    After Vorders - Jonathan Pie;

    Jonathan Pie
    @JonathanPieNews
    I have to admit, I never predicted that one of Labour’s first actions would involve Parliament voting on whether or not to take winter fuel payments away from pensioners. Starmer’s really hit us all with a curveball there.

    Just wait till the budget. A lot of leftys in particular are about to discover that it is easy to snipe from the sidelines, quite a bit harder to actually govern and take the tough decisions.
    True dat.

    Two caveats, though.

    It's a sign of how rubbish the Conservative party has been for years that they haven't taken these tough decisions while they were in office. (See the WFA proposal of 2017.) For all the bunfights to come, Conservatives ought to be quietly thanking Reeves for every bit of fiscal balancing she can squeeze out of the system.

    And sniping from the sidelines is fun. But it's also fundamentally pointless.
    It's democracy. The argument for dictators is always that a Strong Serious Man is needed rather than a bunch of sniping wankers.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    Ooh, landlines aren't obsolescent. In the past week I have filled in at least two forms (one of which was to go swimming) which insisted on me being able to remember my landline number - and how do you remember your landline number if not by using your landline to call your mobile?
    It's also useful for occasionally making a myesterious bleeping sound, though to be honest there are numerous household appliances which can step into the breach there.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    HYUFD said:

    After Stride was knocked out today it was a good result in the latest stage of the Tory leadership result for Jenrick who is still a clear first. OK for Badenoch who kept second and expanded her lead over Cleverly and OK for Tugendhat who stayed in and will hope to take most Stride votes.

    Not great for Cleverly though who failed to get any more MPs backing him than in the first round and is at risk of going out in the next round. He will need to wow conference and pick up some Stride supporters

    Did we expect Patel supporters to switch to Cleverly?


    That said Cleverly is in serious danger of being characterised as a rational, reasonable, big tent conservative Conservative, which is rarely a winning strategy in Tory leadership elections.
  • mercator said:

    Nunu5 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    After Vorders - Jonathan Pie;

    Jonathan Pie
    @JonathanPieNews
    I have to admit, I never predicted that one of Labour’s first actions would involve Parliament voting on whether or not to take winter fuel payments away from pensioners. Starmer’s really hit us all with a curveball there.

    Just wait till the budget. A lot of leftys in particular are about to discover that it is easy to snipe from the sidelines, quite a bit harder to actually govern and take the tough decisions.
    True dat.

    Two caveats, though.

    It's a sign of how rubbish the Conservative party has been for years that they haven't taken these tough decisions while they were in office. (See the WFA proposal of 2017.) For all the bunfights to come, Conservatives ought to be quietly thanking Reeves for every bit of fiscal balancing she can squeeze out of the system.

    And sniping from the sidelines is fun. But it's also fundamentally pointless.
    It's democracy. The argument for dictators is always that a Strong Serious Man is needed rather than a bunch of sniping wankers.
    Whether you agree with them or not the Thatcher, Blair and Cameron coalition governments were all examples of governments willing to take unpopular and difficult decisions if they thought it was right. Weak government is not inevitable.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,549
    I have been rewatching Mrs America.

    It is surprising quite topical.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882
    Today's Ukraine the Latest is out, with memories of David Knowles.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWl5HhzIucQ
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    Ooh, landlines aren't obsolescent. In the past week I have filled in at least two forms (one of which was to go swimming) which insisted on me being able to remember my landline number - and how do you remember your landline number if not by using your landline to call your mobile?
    It's also useful for occasionally making a myesterious bleeping sound, though to be honest there are numerous household appliances which can step into the breach there.
    You don't have your landline number stored on your mobile?
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,549
    Redfield & Wilton state polling

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-6-9-september-2024/

    In a hypothetical match-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Harris leads Trump by between one point and seven points in five of the states, while Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania (45% each). Trump leads Harris in Arizona by one point (47% to 46%), in Florida by six points (50% to 44%), in Georgia by two points (49% to 47%), and in Nevada by one point (46% to 45%).

    Since our last swing state voting intention poll, Harris has taken a one point lead in North Carolina (45% to 44%), and continues to lead in both Michigan (48% to 45%), and Wisconsin (49% to 46%). However, Harris has lost her one point advantage in Pennsylvania to now be tied with Donald Trump at 45% each.

    For Donald Trump, his margins over Harris are unchanged in both Arizona (1%) and Georgia (2%), while he has widened his advantage in Florida to six points and taken a narrow one-point lead in Nevada. At the same time, he has lost his advantage over the current Vice-President in North Carolina and now trails Harris by one point in the Tar Heel state.
  • Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    After Stride was knocked out today it was a good result in the latest stage of the Tory leadership result for Jenrick who is still a clear first. OK for Badenoch who kept second and expanded her lead over Cleverly and OK for Tugendhat who stayed in and will hope to take most Stride votes.

    Not great for Cleverly though who failed to get any more MPs backing him than in the first round and is at risk of going out in the next round. He will need to wow conference and pick up some Stride supporters

    Did we expect Patel supporters to switch to Cleverly?


    That said Cleverly is in serious danger of being characterised as a rational, reasonable, big tent conservative Conservative, which is rarely a winning strategy in Tory leadership elections.
    Reasonable people tend not to joke about spiking their wives drinks with a date rape drug.....he did at least call the Rwanda scheme batshit and would probably prefer to send them to the shithole called Stockton instead.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    nico679 said:

    Whose staying up for the debate. I really shouldn’t but know I won’t be able to resist it .

    Despite a hard morning hiking the Rockies and a Leon-like quantity of wine at lunchtime, I am confident I can make it through to 7pm Mountain Time
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,471
    edited September 10
    I have neither a TV nor a landline. Haven't for nearly three years.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    dixiedean said:

    I have neither a TV nor a landline. Haven't for nearly three years.

    How do you watch movies etc?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069
    No, because noone ever answers the landline. I think we turned the ringer off. Because the only people who phone it are scammers.
    I do concede doing so would alleviate the problem.
    (My tongue is in my cheek, by the way - on this subject I am happy to join Anabobazina in the dubious world of the future.)
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    10 years time. Neuralink.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 620

    mercator said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

    Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

    I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.
    Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.

    The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
    Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.

    Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.
    I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.
    Badenoch isn't right wing from where you're viewing then?
    I don't find her Ministerial career to demonstrate particularly strong right wing instincts. I think she is quite a good right wing commentry provider, but so were Cameron and Osborne in their day - always picking public fights with the EU followed by private capitulations. Nobody (expect idiots) classes those two as right wing Tories these days.

    I would rather a thoughtful right winger who speaks a little less but means it. I wouldn't mind if she won, but it wouldn't particularly surprise me if she won power then failed to deliver.
    I sense someone hankering for a Joseph or a Redwood. Just not on offer, I'm afraid. Not here in 2024. The right are all a bit agricultural now.
    I feel fairly comfortable with Jenrick. Even his corrupt stuff I don't really mind. I prefer the small scale troughing of a Johnson or a Jenrick to Tony Blair ending up with a multi-million pound Laurence Ellison-funded foundation without a stain on his character, or Sunak handing millions of pounds to a company his investment fund is balls deep in and it all being fine because it's a 'blind trust'. Those are the people you really have to watch out for.
    Johnson a small scale trougher?

    Can I interest you in this 1:20 scale model of a bridge?
    Or a bus?
    The buses were actually good value. Still in service and going strong. Was on one today.

    Made in the U.K., hybrid designed to be evolved into fully electric.
    LOL! The thing about Johnson is that he doesn't appear to have been the main beneficiary of his dodgy contract awards, Mone, Heatherwick and others seem to be the main beneficiaries.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069
    HYUFD said:

    After Stride was knocked out today it was a good result in the latest stage of the Tory leadership result for Jenrick who is still a clear first. OK for Badenoch who kept second and expanded her lead over Cleverly and OK for Tugendhat who stayed in and will hope to take most Stride votes.

    Not great for Cleverly though who failed to get any more MPs backing him than in the first round and is at risk of going out in the next round. He will need to wow conference and pick up some Stride supporters

    I disagree, as I said earlier. Cleverly will make it through to the final two on these results, Badenoch will not. It will almost certainly be Jenrick-Cleverly, possibly Jenrick-Tugendhat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Haitians in the US appear to be pretty law abiding.
    Which might explain GOP antipathy towards them ?

    Native-born Americans have an incarceration rate 3.5 times higher than that of all Haitian immigrants
    https://x.com/ArmandDoma/status/1833548085576012168
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    Problems building new homes in Wales!!!

    Affordable homes plan refused amid fears 'non-Welsh speakers' would move in

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/affordable-homes-plan-refused-amid-29903994#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

    Quite right too. We don't want any old riff-raff here in the Vale.
    It would be interesting to hear the reaction if this were proposed in England - that homes be reserved for English speakers in order to preserve English culture. I think disapproving voices might be raised.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,471
    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    I have neither a TV nor a landline. Haven't for nearly three years.

    How do you watch movies etc?
    I don't.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Sweden has apparently not read @Malmesbury ‘s NU10K thesis.
    Or has, and disapproves.

    Swedish Court Sends Ex-CEO of Swedbank to Prison for lying about Russian money laundering at her bank. Very powerful move!
    https://x.com/Billbrowder/status/1833592696352416158
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    Cookie said:

    No, because noone ever answers the landline. I think we turned the ringer off. Because the only people who phone it are scammers.
    I do concede doing so would alleviate the problem.
    (My tongue is in my cheek, by the way - on this subject I am happy to join Anabobazina in the dubious world of the future.)

    Only person who ever calls our landline is my mother in law. Useful triage system.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Dopermean said:

    mercator said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

    Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

    I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.
    Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.

    The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
    Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.

    Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.
    I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.
    Badenoch isn't right wing from where you're viewing then?
    I don't find her Ministerial career to demonstrate particularly strong right wing instincts. I think she is quite a good right wing commentry provider, but so were Cameron and Osborne in their day - always picking public fights with the EU followed by private capitulations. Nobody (expect idiots) classes those two as right wing Tories these days.

    I would rather a thoughtful right winger who speaks a little less but means it. I wouldn't mind if she won, but it wouldn't particularly surprise me if she won power then failed to deliver.
    I sense someone hankering for a Joseph or a Redwood. Just not on offer, I'm afraid. Not here in 2024. The right are all a bit agricultural now.
    I feel fairly comfortable with Jenrick. Even his corrupt stuff I don't really mind. I prefer the small scale troughing of a Johnson or a Jenrick to Tony Blair ending up with a multi-million pound Laurence Ellison-funded foundation without a stain on his character, or Sunak handing millions of pounds to a company his investment fund is balls deep in and it all being fine because it's a 'blind trust'. Those are the people you really have to watch out for.
    Johnson a small scale trougher?

    Can I interest you in this 1:20 scale model of a bridge?
    Or a bus?
    The buses were actually good value. Still in service and going strong. Was on one today.

    Made in the U.K., hybrid designed to be evolved into fully electric.
    LOL! The thing about Johnson is that he doesn't appear to have been the main beneficiary of his dodgy contract awards, Mone, Heatherwick and others seem to be the main beneficiaries.
    Not appearing to be something which you actually are, is quite a major part of the fraudster game. Otherwise it doesn't work. Ponzi didn't get where he is today by blatantly appearing to operate a scheme so bent that it needed naming after him.

    You think Mone got 100% of the take, no kickbacks? Rly? Bridge of any interest?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR

    Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket

    🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 45%

    polymarket.com/elections

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.

    Harris is winning this election.
    Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMOR

    I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
    It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.
    Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straight

    Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge

    I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off

    She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight
    She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?
    The worry is Trump smashed Biden out of the park. If he does the same to Harris today it's game over- for the World!
    Trump was shite in that June debate against Biden. Nobody noticed because Biden was ending his long career of public service.

    If Trump is as bad tonight, Harris will be just fine.
    She just needs to get under his skin enough for him to have a meltdown rant.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 257
    Well looks like the Guardian have confirmed their irrelevence. Too bad.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    Redfield & Wilton state polling

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-6-9-september-2024/

    In a hypothetical match-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Harris leads Trump by between one point and seven points in five of the states, while Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania (45% each). Trump leads Harris in Arizona by one point (47% to 46%), in Florida by six points (50% to 44%), in Georgia by two points (49% to 47%), and in Nevada by one point (46% to 45%).

    Since our last swing state voting intention poll, Harris has taken a one point lead in North Carolina (45% to 44%), and continues to lead in both Michigan (48% to 45%), and Wisconsin (49% to 46%). However, Harris has lost her one point advantage in Pennsylvania to now be tied with Donald Trump at 45% each.

    For Donald Trump, his margins over Harris are unchanged in both Arizona (1%) and Georgia (2%), while he has widened his advantage in Florida to six points and taken a narrow one-point lead in Nevada. At the same time, he has lost his advantage over the current Vice-President in North Carolina and now trails Harris by one point in the Tar Heel state.

    That polling feels pretty plausible to me: Harris ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, Pennyslvania tied, with Trump leading in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 812
    edited September 10

    Problems building new homes in Wales!!!

    Affordable homes plan refused amid fears 'non-Welsh speakers' would move in

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/affordable-homes-plan-refused-amid-29903994#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

    I avoid North Wales to an extent (not a total boycott, just don't go as much as I would otherwise) because of a) their camera vans b) this sort of thing.

    UK missed a trick in the 60s. Should have just let them burn down a few more bungalows and stood firm. Some countries are cursed with multiple languages (the one I'm most familiar with, Zambia has 73). But there's no reason the UK needs to have any more than English as an official tongue (fun fact it's my understand that Welsh is our only official language!). By all means teach them Welsh at home but making it possible to be a Welsh monoglot is child abuse imo.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited September 10
    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,030

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    In the longer term I don't think enough people care about sports lag for the classic broadcasting methods to survive.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 812
    edited September 10
    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    Ooh, landlines aren't obsolescent. In the past week I have filled in at least two forms (one of which was to go swimming) which insisted on me being able to remember my landline number - and how do you remember your landline number if not by using your landline to call your mobile?
    It's also useful for occasionally making a myesterious bleeping sound, though to be honest there are numerous household appliances which can step into the breach there.
    What forms are these? They usually ask for a "home number" these days which allows using a mobile (I usually put the wife's obviously). Last time I had a landline was 2016ish I think.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.

    But I know I am being irrational.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,896
    The frontrunner in the Tory leadership election has less than 2/7ths of the votes in the second round. There are three possible explanations that spring to mind.
    1. The Party is hopelessly divided in myriad hard to reconcile ways, and none of the leadership candidates have managed to reconcile them.
    2. The candidates are all roughly equally useless.
    3. The candidates are all roughly equally awesome.
    I leave it as an exercise for the reader to judge the relative likelihood of these explanations.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    I have neither a TV nor a landline. Haven't for nearly three years.

    How do you watch movies etc?
    Or indeed football, without your mates telling you that someone’s scored two minutes before you see it?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,990
    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    Ooh, landlines aren't obsolescent. In the past week I have filled in at least two forms (one of which was to go swimming) which insisted on me being able to remember my landline number - and how do you remember your landline number if not by using your landline to call your mobile?
    It's also useful for occasionally making a myesterious bleeping sound, though to be honest there are numerous household appliances which can step into the breach there.
    So as I don't have a landline I get excluded?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Foss said:

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    In the longer term I don't think enough people care about sports lag for the classic broadcasting methods to survive.
    Really? You would be amazed how often people despise it. Of course, the streaming technology will (eventually) improve, although they have promised that for a few years now.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835
    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    Ooh, landlines aren't obsolescent. In the past week I have filled in at least two forms (one of which was to go swimming) which insisted on me being able to remember my landline number - and how do you remember your landline number if not by using your landline to call your mobile?
    It's also useful for occasionally making a myesterious bleeping sound, though to be honest there are numerous household appliances which can step into the breach there.
    So as I don't have a landline I get excluded?
    I've never found an online form which complained about giving the same number for mobile and landline.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,896

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.

    But I know I am being irrational.

    I am in rural West Cork, and even here it is unusual for people to retain a landline. Only this evening my mother-in-law was talking about someone who still has their landline because they don't have mobile reception at home, but in such a way that it was clear this was the exception.

    It's quite possible that more people in West Cork are using Starlink than a landline.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    carnforth said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    Ooh, landlines aren't obsolescent. In the past week I have filled in at least two forms (one of which was to go swimming) which insisted on me being able to remember my landline number - and how do you remember your landline number if not by using your landline to call your mobile?
    It's also useful for occasionally making a myesterious bleeping sound, though to be honest there are numerous household appliances which can step into the breach there.
    So as I don't have a landline I get excluded?
    I've never found an online form which complained about giving the same number for mobile and landline.
    I think @Cookie was being satirical, chaps.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    Ooh, landlines aren't obsolescent. In the past week I have filled in at least two forms (one of which was to go swimming) which insisted on me being able to remember my landline number - and how do you remember your landline number if not by using your landline to call your mobile?
    It's also useful for occasionally making a myesterious bleeping sound, though to be honest there are numerous household appliances which can step into the breach there.
    What forms are these? They usually ask for a "home number" these days which allows using a mobile (I usually put the wife's obviously). Last time I had a landline was 2016ish I think.
    Required fields for a home number - sometimes going so far to check that it's of a valid format i.e. starting with 01... - happen implausibly frequently. The most recent example was trying to book a slot to go swimming at the local leisure centre. What they do with this information is beyond me.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    carnforth said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    Ooh, landlines aren't obsolescent. In the past week I have filled in at least two forms (one of which was to go swimming) which insisted on me being able to remember my landline number - and how do you remember your landline number if not by using your landline to call your mobile?
    It's also useful for occasionally making a myesterious bleeping sound, though to be honest there are numerous household appliances which can step into the breach there.
    So as I don't have a landline I get excluded?
    I've never found an online form which complained about giving the same number for mobile and landline.
    I think @Cookie was being satirical, chaps.
    I was, but it is genuinely the case that I have come across online forms which insist on an actual landline number.

    Ooh, I've remembered the other one - reporting a missed bin.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    The frontrunner in the Tory leadership election has less than 2/7ths of the votes in the second round. There are three possible explanations that spring to mind.
    1. The Party is hopelessly divided in myriad hard to reconcile ways, and none of the leadership candidates have managed to reconcile them.
    2. The candidates are all roughly equally useless.
    3. The candidates are all roughly equally awesome.
    I leave it as an exercise for the reader to judge the relative likelihood of these explanations.

    Not sure it is 1. Depends what you mean by the Party. MPs may be hopelessly divided but the membership don't appear to be. They want Badenoch to be one of the final two and then they want to vote for her.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,896
    DavidL said:

    1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.

    I think the increases in price for tobacco have played a role in helping to encourage people to break their addiction, but the addiction to alcohol may well act in a different way. In any case, the minimum unit price hasn't been set at a high enough level to drive up the price of the cheapest alcohol all that much, so I think it would have been very optimistic to expect much of an impact at the current level.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.

    That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.

    She got the most from Priti, but Stride, TT and Cleverly are less obvious sources of more.

    I think Jenrick a poor choice myself, and not likely to make a dent in either Refukkers or LDs, but hard to make a strong case for any of the others either.
    Wolverhampton born Jenrick could make an inroad with redwallers who voted for Boris but Labour this time
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,030

    Foss said:

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    In the longer term I don't think enough people care about sports lag for the classic broadcasting methods to survive.
    Really? You would be amazed how often people despise it. Of course, the streaming technology will (eventually) improve, although they have promised that for a few years now.


    Freeview and satellite take-up are in long term decline. At some point they'll be unable to pay their own way and will get wound up.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Nunu5 said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR

    Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket

    🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 45%

    polymarket.com/elections

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.

    Harris is winning this election.
    Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMOR

    I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
    In Washington state? Strongly Trump country
    British Columbia

    It’s a big place. I’m on the highway and the road sign has just informed me the next town is 193km and it is…. Osoyoos
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.

    But I know I am being irrational.

    Landlines don't work in a power cut any more. Mine went a few years back. Waste of money.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    I have neither a TV nor a landline. Haven't for nearly three years.

    How do you watch movies etc?
    Or indeed football, without your mates telling you that someone’s scored two minutes before you see it?
    That's pretty dickish behaviour, no? But you can get around it by just muting your phone. But I do see the issue. I once watched an England match in a pub. We arrived shortly before kick off, but improbably there was a table with a plum view of a screen still available. It soon became apparent why: oir screen was about 10 seconds behind all tge others.
    As the game was a characteristically disappointing 0-0 draw, not much excitement was missed, although by the time a chance built on our screen we had already heard the groans of its demise, so any slight excitement was snuffed out.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 620
    mercator said:

    Dopermean said:

    mercator said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.

    Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.

    I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.
    Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.

    The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
    Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.

    Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.
    I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.
    Badenoch isn't right wing from where you're viewing then?
    I don't find her Ministerial career to demonstrate particularly strong right wing instincts. I think she is quite a good right wing commentry provider, but so were Cameron and Osborne in their day - always picking public fights with the EU followed by private capitulations. Nobody (expect idiots) classes those two as right wing Tories these days.

    I would rather a thoughtful right winger who speaks a little less but means it. I wouldn't mind if she won, but it wouldn't particularly surprise me if she won power then failed to deliver.
    I sense someone hankering for a Joseph or a Redwood. Just not on offer, I'm afraid. Not here in 2024. The right are all a bit agricultural now.
    I feel fairly comfortable with Jenrick. Even his corrupt stuff I don't really mind. I prefer the small scale troughing of a Johnson or a Jenrick to Tony Blair ending up with a multi-million pound Laurence Ellison-funded foundation without a stain on his character, or Sunak handing millions of pounds to a company his investment fund is balls deep in and it all being fine because it's a 'blind trust'. Those are the people you really have to watch out for.
    Johnson a small scale trougher?

    Can I interest you in this 1:20 scale model of a bridge?
    Or a bus?
    The buses were actually good value. Still in service and going strong. Was on one today.

    Made in the U.K., hybrid designed to be evolved into fully electric.
    LOL! The thing about Johnson is that he doesn't appear to have been the main beneficiary of his dodgy contract awards, Mone, Heatherwick and others seem to be the main beneficiaries.
    Not appearing to be something which you actually are, is quite a major part of the fraudster game. Otherwise it doesn't work. Ponzi didn't get where he is today by blatantly appearing to operate a scheme so bent that it needed naming after him.

    You think Mone got 100% of the take, no kickbacks? Rly? Bridge of any interest?
    "seem"...
    Do I think someone who needed an £800k line of credit then bought a property for £5m cash should have had some tough questions to answer on source of funds? Definitely.
    Will it just be explained away as an advance on some very lucrative gigs on the speaking circuit? Probably.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Another problem for the Harris campaign:

    https://x.com/realchrisrufo/status/1833600904479781075

    EXCLUSIVE: @Buttonslives and I have discovered that the Biden-Harris Administration subsidized the Venezuelan migrants who took over the apartments in Aurora, Colorado, through a funnel of government agencies and left-wing NGOs.

    It's time to follow the money. 🧵
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    After Stride was knocked out today it was a good result in the latest stage of the Tory leadership result for Jenrick who is still a clear first. OK for Badenoch who kept second and expanded her lead over Cleverly and OK for Tugendhat who stayed in and will hope to take most Stride votes.

    Not great for Cleverly though who failed to get any more MPs backing him than in the first round and is at risk of going out in the next round. He will need to wow conference and pick up some Stride supporters

    Did we expect Patel supporters to switch to Cleverly?


    That said Cleverly is in serious danger of being characterised as a rational, reasonable, big tent conservative Conservative, which is rarely a winning strategy in Tory leadership elections.
    Perhaps but although he is genial he lacks energy for me, we need someone more vigorous who will get into the Labour government
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.

    But I know I am being irrational.

    Landlines don't work in a power cut any more. Mine went a few years back. Waste of money.
    My broadband provider charges nothing for the landline. It can't be unbundled.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    The frontrunner in the Tory leadership election has less than 2/7ths of the votes in the second round. There are three possible explanations that spring to mind.
    1. The Party is hopelessly divided in myriad hard to reconcile ways, and none of the leadership candidates have managed to reconcile them.
    2. The candidates are all roughly equally useless.
    3. The candidates are all roughly equally awesome.
    I leave it as an exercise for the reader to judge the relative likelihood of these explanations.

    Only having around 2/7ths of first choices is pretty typical at five-candidates-left stage of a leadership election in any party, surely?
  • Problems building new homes in Wales!!!

    Affordable homes plan refused amid fears 'non-Welsh speakers' would move in

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/affordable-homes-plan-refused-amid-29903994#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare

    I avoid North Wales to an extent (not a total boycott, just don't go as much as I would otherwise) because of a) their camera vans b) this sort of thing.

    UK missed a trick in the 60s. Should have just let them burn down a few more bungalows and stood firm. Some countries are cursed with multiple languages (the one I'm most familiar with, Zambia has 73). But there's no reason the UK needs to have any more than English as an official tongue (fun fact it's my understand that Welsh is our only official language!). By all means teach them Welsh at home but making it possible to be a Welsh monoglot is child abuse imo.
    India has around 840 languages!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    After Stride was knocked out today it was a good result in the latest stage of the Tory leadership result for Jenrick who is still a clear first. OK for Badenoch who kept second and expanded her lead over Cleverly and OK for Tugendhat who stayed in and will hope to take most Stride votes.

    Not great for Cleverly though who failed to get any more MPs backing him than in the first round and is at risk of going out in the next round. He will need to wow conference and pick up some Stride supporters

    I disagree, as I said earlier. Cleverly will make it through to the final two on these results, Badenoch will not. It will almost certainly be Jenrick-Cleverly, possibly Jenrick-Tugendhat.
    Cleverly has a shot still, maybe more than Badenoch or Tugendhat of making the last round but today was not a great result for him as it had been briefed he would get some Patel voters and he got 0. As most Stride backers will go for Tugendhat it will be a challenge for him to stay in in the next round given Badenoch is now 7 MPs ahead of him
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    edited September 10

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.

    But I know I am being irrational.

    The number I have associated with support, kindness and love for over twenty years has just... gone.

    It hurt more than I expected. WhatsApp just doesn't have the same concrete sense of security that a landline does. Also why I have some sympathy with the cash luddites on here.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.

    But I know I am being irrational.

    Landlines don't work in a power cut any more. Mine went a few years back. Waste of money.
    My broadband provider charges nothing for the landline. It can't be unbundled.
    "Landlines don't work in a power cut any more."

    I know. Or at least know that is coming with end of PSTN.

    But I still think the mobile network may be down but landline still up.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    Eabhal said:

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.

    But I know I am being irrational.

    The number I have associated with support, kindness and love for over twenty years has just... gone.

    It hurt more than I expected. WhatsApp just doesn't have the same concrete sense of security that a landline does. Also why I have some sympathy with the cash luddites on here.
    This is the kind of thing I am thinking.

    Is this tech noom??
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942

    Eabhal said:

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.

    But I know I am being irrational.

    The number I have associated with support, kindness and love for over twenty years has just... gone.

    It hurt more than I expected. WhatsApp just doesn't have the same concrete sense of security that a landline does. Also why I have some sympathy with the cash luddites on here.
    This is the kind of thing I am thinking.

    Is this tech noom??
    oh god.

    TECH NOOM
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864

    Redfield & Wilton state polling

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-6-9-september-2024/

    In a hypothetical match-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Harris leads Trump by between one point and seven points in five of the states, while Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania (45% each). Trump leads Harris in Arizona by one point (47% to 46%), in Florida by six points (50% to 44%), in Georgia by two points (49% to 47%), and in Nevada by one point (46% to 45%).

    Since our last swing state voting intention poll, Harris has taken a one point lead in North Carolina (45% to 44%), and continues to lead in both Michigan (48% to 45%), and Wisconsin (49% to 46%). However, Harris has lost her one point advantage in Pennsylvania to now be tied with Donald Trump at 45% each.

    For Donald Trump, his margins over Harris are unchanged in both Arizona (1%) and Georgia (2%), while he has widened his advantage in Florida to six points and taken a narrow one-point lead in Nevada. At the same time, he has lost his advantage over the current Vice-President in North Carolina and now trails Harris by one point in the Tar Heel state.

    Better for Harris than Focaldata. Michigan now looks solid for her and Wisconsin reasonable too and encouraging she is ahead in NC as if she wins there or Georgia she can win even without tied Pennsylvania. Arizona looks solid Trump as does Florida with the odd flatter to deceive polling. Nevada looks like PA
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Cookie said:

    carnforth said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    Ooh, landlines aren't obsolescent. In the past week I have filled in at least two forms (one of which was to go swimming) which insisted on me being able to remember my landline number - and how do you remember your landline number if not by using your landline to call your mobile?
    It's also useful for occasionally making a myesterious bleeping sound, though to be honest there are numerous household appliances which can step into the breach there.
    So as I don't have a landline I get excluded?
    I've never found an online form which complained about giving the same number for mobile and landline.
    I think @Cookie was being satirical, chaps.
    I was, but it is genuinely the case that I have come across online forms which insist on an actual landline number.

    Ooh, I've remembered the other one - reporting a missed bin.
    Eh? I have been sans landline for two decades. I just put my mobile number in that field. It works every time.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Jonathan said:

    TV and landlines once seemed there forever, but are no going the way of the Telegram and Fax.

    I wonder when mobiles will become obsolete and what will replace them.

    Tellies are clinging on because of the fatal flaw of streaming lag in sports. But yes, landlines are pointless.
    I'm strangely reluctant to get rid of our landline and I don't really understand why. Something about it being there if the mobiles don't work and not wanting to have a mobile next to my head for a whole hour if it is long catch up session.

    But I know I am being irrational.

    The problem now with digital landlines is if the internet goes they do aswell . Having said that I still have a landline because of the international deals but that’s even less important now as even my older relatives can cope with whats app.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    Cookie said:

    carnforth said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.

    But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.

    I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.
    Ooh, landlines aren't obsolescent. In the past week I have filled in at least two forms (one of which was to go swimming) which insisted on me being able to remember my landline number - and how do you remember your landline number if not by using your landline to call your mobile?
    It's also useful for occasionally making a myesterious bleeping sound, though to be honest there are numerous household appliances which can step into the breach there.
    So as I don't have a landline I get excluded?
    I've never found an online form which complained about giving the same number for mobile and landline.
    I think @Cookie was being satirical, chaps.
    I was, but it is genuinely the case that I have come across online forms which insist on an actual landline number.

    Ooh, I've remembered the other one - reporting a missed bin.
    Eh? I have been sans landline for two decades. I just put my mobile number in that field. It works every time.
    In a similar vein, I was once told when signing up for an online account that my mother's maiden name had to be at least six letters long. Which created a small problem for me, and also for anyone whose mother might jave been born Smith, or Jones, or Brown, or Green, or Wood, or Lee, etc.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Cookie said:

    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    I have neither a TV nor a landline. Haven't for nearly three years.

    How do you watch movies etc?
    Or indeed football, without your mates telling you that someone’s scored two minutes before you see it?
    That's pretty dickish behaviour, no? But you can get around it by just muting your phone. But I do see the issue. I once watched an England match in a pub. We arrived shortly before kick off, but improbably there was a table with a plum view of a screen still available. It soon became apparent why: oir screen was about 10 seconds behind all tge others.
    As the game was a characteristically disappointing 0-0 draw, not much excitement was missed, although by the time a chance built on our screen we had already heard the groans of its demise, so any slight excitement was snuffed out.
    Well anyone can WhatsApp at any time, or someone can look at LiveScores in the pub and blurt. It would be better if the hopeless streaming services sorted the fault, but they have been promising that for years and there’s been no discernible improvement. It ruins the experience.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Unfortunate wording.

    https://x.com/annielinskey/status/1833612896284147864

    Biden sums up his next 24 hours, speaking to the pool: "I'm going up to my granddaughter's birthday in New York, then we're going to watch the debate and tomorrow I'm doing 9/11."
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,987

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.

    Counterfactual is the problem. How many more would it have been without minimum pricing?

    (I don't know the answer but you have to be careful with such things)
    True, and there was an improvement in the early years. For me, the policy was flawed because it was not generating the income to pay for making good the damage caused by alcohol. I would far rather have higher duties than minimum pricing which simply lines the retailer's pockets. If that money was hypothecated to clinics helping people to dry out and public health messaging so much he better.
    Scotland’s increasing drink and drugs problem is not surprising. Since 2014, there has been no prospect of independence. The Scottish Government has been too busy implementing policies of no use to anyone wanting to better themselves, who don’t want to see their limited budget spent on expensive green energy, woke rubbish and vanity projects. And the weather’s shite. Lack of opportunity leads to lack of optimism, which leads to ways of trying to forget how miserable and depressing life now is. It will be no better under Labour.
    :: raises a glass ::
This discussion has been closed.