Jenrick is still on top but it’s tight – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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The Tories removed universal child benefit, but that was a benefit that mostly went to Labour rather than Tory voters.Stuartinromford said:
There's a reasonably legit case for highish universal benefits, as long as they are coupled with highish and fairly progressive taxes to fund them. Lots of something for something.noneoftheabove said:
Lets face it, if there was instead a "Travel to work grant" of £300 to everyone aged between 35 and 55 to encourage productivity, which we couldn't possibly means test and it was now being withdrawn the Guardian et al would be complaining about it being taken away and how harsh the government was being. And it would be equally unnecessary. The aim of regular government support* has to be helping the poorest in society, perhaps up to the poorest quarter or so. It can't be free cash for the richest.Leon said:Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver
This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris
“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance
Also this on the same page
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment
Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?
Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson
* Exceptions to support the economy for things like covid or indeed the very abrupt energy price spike after the Ukrainian invasion are fine.
The catch is that the voters have repeatedly made it clear that they aren't keen on lowish means tested benefits but they really don't like highish taxes.
What the voters actually want is basically to deny arithmetic. Which is why government is hard.
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When someone is known for being a plain speaker there are two possibilities: they're a plain speaker, or they're hiding nutjob beliefs, and the plain speaking is really a sanitised version.moonshine said:What did I miss about Badenoch that has turned off so many on here? She left a bigger mark on me than Jenrick, or even Cleverly, who remains fairly anonymous in my memory bank despite holding the big briefs.
Kemi gives off possible inner-nutjob vibes.0 -
Sky news is almost as marxist as the bbc these days. Thank god for Gbeebies to keep us all up to date.Leon said:The point about the guardian attack on Labour is not that they’re doing it - esp over WFA - but that they are doing it in a number of different ways and with different high profile journalists. And they are also lacing it with personally offensive stuff - like the cartoon linked above and marina hyde being remarkably mean about Starmer and his puritan ways
They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular
That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc0 -
I think a lot of PB centrists dislike her War On Woke?moonshine said:What did I miss about Badenoch that has turned off so many on here? She left a bigger mark on me than Jenrick, or even Cleverly, who remains fairly anonymous in my memory bank despite holding the big briefs.
If she does become LOTO I would suggest the dials down down the Culture Wars stuff a lot.0 -
But look at the whinging here from people on the right affected by that particular spike in the system.Foxy said:
The Tories removed universal child benefit, but that was a benefit that mostly went to Labour rather than Tory voters.Stuartinromford said:
There's a reasonably legit case for highish universal benefits, as long as they are coupled with highish and fairly progressive taxes to fund them. Lots of something for something.noneoftheabove said:
Lets face it, if there was instead a "Travel to work grant" of £300 to everyone aged between 35 and 55 to encourage productivity, which we couldn't possibly means test and it was now being withdrawn the Guardian et al would be complaining about it being taken away and how harsh the government was being. And it would be equally unnecessary. The aim of regular government support* has to be helping the poorest in society, perhaps up to the poorest quarter or so. It can't be free cash for the richest.Leon said:Good morning (2.0) from Vancouver
This is, by my reckoning, maybe the tenth Guardian article that is REALLY hostile to Starmer/Reeves. And from perhaps their best political journalist - John Harris
“Starmer and Reeves are playing a dangerous game. How much more do they think Britain can take?”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/10/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-britain-pensioners-winter-fuel-allowance
Also this on the same page
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/10/uk-pensioners-losing-winter-fuel-payment
Something is up. No way the guardian would normally attack a new Labour government, like this - after 14 years of Tories! - unless they have some personal beef. Or there is some genuine underlying rift. Or both?
Not good for Skyr Toolmakersson
* Exceptions to support the economy for things like covid or indeed the very abrupt energy price spike after the Ukrainian invasion are fine.
The catch is that the voters have repeatedly made it clear that they aren't keen on lowish means tested benefits but they really don't like highish taxes.
What the voters actually want is basically to deny arithmetic. Which is why government is hard.
(And yes, spikes are bad. But nobody thinks that they can get away with the increased rates/lower thresholds to smooth the spikes out whilst still maintaining government income.)0 -
What sort of nut job beliefs? That Tuesday should be renamed Kemiday? I’m mystified why she is attracting so much concerted disdain, above and beyond anyone else that fancies themselves enough to be PM.carnforth said:
When someone is known for being a plain speaker there are two possibilities: they're a plain speaker, or they're hiding nutjob beliefs, and the plain speaking is really a sanitised version.moonshine said:What did I miss about Badenoch that has turned off so many on here? She left a bigger mark on me than Jenrick, or even Cleverly, who remains fairly anonymous in my memory bank despite holding the big briefs.
Kemi gives off possible inner-nutjob vibes.0 -
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains1 -
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Maybe it's an indication that in a couple of year Labour will get rid of Keir and Rachel and bring back Jezza?Leon said:The point about the guardian attack on Labour is not that they’re doing it - esp over WFA - but that they are doing it in a number of different ways and with different high profile journalists. And they are also lacing it with personally offensive stuff - like the cartoon linked above and marina hyde being remarkably mean about Starmer and his puritan ways
They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular
That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc
eg one of the most subtle but effective hatchet jobs on Starmer was written in the guardian BEFORE the election. That weird interview where he admitted he didn’t dream, spoke about himself in the third person, and came across as quite unlikeable. That now seems deliberate
Someone at guardian towers - someone very high up - has an “issue” with the Labour leadership
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Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight0 -
A very common criticism of means testing WFH is we could either raise or save this money in lots of different ways. Has it not occured to these people that we will have to both raise and save a few billion a time in lots of different ways, rather than just one way?4
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We saw how difficult it is to remove a sitting leader under Jezza. Starmer stays as long as he wants. There is no Labour 1922 committee, and I am not convinced that is a very good system. It's perpetually destabilising.GIN1138 said:
Maybe it's an indication that in a couple of year Labour will get rid of Keir and Rachel and bring back Jezza?Leon said:The point about the guardian attack on Labour is not that they’re doing it - esp over WFA - but that they are doing it in a number of different ways and with different high profile journalists. And they are also lacing it with personally offensive stuff - like the cartoon linked above and marina hyde being remarkably mean about Starmer and his puritan ways
They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular
That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc
eg one of the most subtle but effective hatchet jobs on Starmer was written in the guardian BEFORE the election. That weird interview where he admitted he didn’t dream, spoke about himself in the third person, and came across as quite unlikeable. That now seems deliberate
Someone at guardian towers - someone very high up - has an “issue” with the Labour leadership0 -
Badenoch isn't right wing from where you're viewing then?Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.TimS said:
Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.BartholomewRoberts said:Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.
Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.
The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.0 -
1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.0
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Having carved out a niche as a celebrity activist, where does she go from here?GIN1138 said:1 -
It's not even clear if means testing the WFA will save anything if many more sign up for pension credit.noneoftheabove said:A very common criticism of means testing WFH is we could either raise or save this money in lots of different ways. Has it not occured to these people that we will have to both raise and save a few billion a time in lots of different ways, rather than just one way?
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Well the Tories got rid of Boris by virtually the whole government resigning en mass.Foxy said:
We saw how difficult it is to remove a sitting leader under Jezza. Starmer stays as long as he wants. There is no Labour 1922 committee, and I am not convinced that is a very good system. It's perpetually destabilising.GIN1138 said:
Maybe it's an indication that in a couple of year Labour will get rid of Keir and Rachel and bring back Jezza?Leon said:The point about the guardian attack on Labour is not that they’re doing it - esp over WFA - but that they are doing it in a number of different ways and with different high profile journalists. And they are also lacing it with personally offensive stuff - like the cartoon linked above and marina hyde being remarkably mean about Starmer and his puritan ways
They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular
That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc
eg one of the most subtle but effective hatchet jobs on Starmer was written in the guardian BEFORE the election. That weird interview where he admitted he didn’t dream, spoke about himself in the third person, and came across as quite unlikeable. That now seems deliberate
Someone at guardian towers - someone very high up - has an “issue” with the Labour leadership0 -
In the run up to the election they were quite critical at times and often put out headlines that weren’t helpful to Labour . I’ve never been one of Starmers biggest fans and would have much preferred Angela Rayner as the leader . As for Reeves she couldn’t have had a worse start .Leon said:The point about the guardian attack on Labour is not that they’re doing it - esp over WFA - but that they are doing it in a number of different ways and with different high profile journalists. And they are also lacing it with personally offensive stuff - like the cartoon linked above and marina hyde being remarkably mean about Starmer and his puritan ways
They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular
That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc
eg one of the most subtle but effective hatchet jobs on Starmer was written in the guardian BEFORE the election. That weird interview where he admitted he didn’t dream, spoke about himself in the third person, and came across as quite unlikeable. That now seems deliberate
Someone at guardian towers - someone very high up - has an “issue” with the Labour leadership0 -
That would be great if it did, a much better way of spending taxpayer money.RobD said:
It's not even clear if means testing the WFA will save anything if many more sign up for pension credit.noneoftheabove said:A very common criticism of means testing WFH is we could either raise or save this money in lots of different ways. Has it not occured to these people that we will have to both raise and save a few billion a time in lots of different ways, rather than just one way?
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Labour tried that with Jezza and it didn’t workGIN1138 said:
Well the Tories got rid of Boris by virtually the whole government resigning en mass.Foxy said:
We saw how difficult it is to remove a sitting leader under Jezza. Starmer stays as long as he wants. There is no Labour 1922 committee, and I am not convinced that is a very good system. It's perpetually destabilising.GIN1138 said:
Maybe it's an indication that in a couple of year Labour will get rid of Keir and Rachel and bring back Jezza?Leon said:The point about the guardian attack on Labour is not that they’re doing it - esp over WFA - but that they are doing it in a number of different ways and with different high profile journalists. And they are also lacing it with personally offensive stuff - like the cartoon linked above and marina hyde being remarkably mean about Starmer and his puritan ways
They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular
That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc
eg one of the most subtle but effective hatchet jobs on Starmer was written in the guardian BEFORE the election. That weird interview where he admitted he didn’t dream, spoke about himself in the third person, and came across as quite unlikeable. That now seems deliberate
Someone at guardian towers - someone very high up - has an “issue” with the Labour leadership0 -
I suspect she'll gradually become more and more bitter towards Labour and shift her support over to Sir Ed?williamglenn said:
Having carved out a niche as a celebrity activist, where does she go from here?GIN1138 said:1 -
Actual size: 🎻GIN1138 said:2 -
Whose staying up for the debate. I really shouldn’t but know I won’t be able to resist it .2
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I don't think Badenoch is a nut job. She is I think quite intelligent. There are fleeting moments where you think she has some insight. She lacks empathy but honestly none of them do well in that department. She is arrogant and pointlessly aggressive, pissing off people she wants on her side.carnforth said:
When someone is known for being a plain speaker there are two possibilities: they're a plain speaker, or they're hiding nutjob beliefs, and the plain speaking is really a sanitised version.moonshine said:What did I miss about Badenoch that has turned off so many on here? She left a bigger mark on me than Jenrick, or even Cleverly, who remains fairly anonymous in my memory bank despite holding the big briefs.
Kemi gives off possible inner-nutjob vibes.
But the killer in my view is she's lazy. You can't get away with that as a leader of a major party. Unless you are Boris Johnson. And even then, only for a while.0 -
The stakes are very, very low when getting rid of LOTO. A PM is in some ways easier to unseat because a real cabinet has the option of going on strike - that is effectively how Johnson and Truss went, and possibly Sunak if we believe the very credible theory that he went early ahead of a revolt. A shadow chancellor downing tools is unnoticeable, the actual one not so much.Foxy said:
We saw how difficult it is to remove a sitting leader under Jezza. Starmer stays as long as he wants. There is no Labour 1922 committee, and I am not convinced that is a very good system. It's perpetually destabilising.GIN1138 said:
Maybe it's an indication that in a couple of year Labour will get rid of Keir and Rachel and bring back Jezza?Leon said:The point about the guardian attack on Labour is not that they’re doing it - esp over WFA - but that they are doing it in a number of different ways and with different high profile journalists. And they are also lacing it with personally offensive stuff - like the cartoon linked above and marina hyde being remarkably mean about Starmer and his puritan ways
They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular
That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc
eg one of the most subtle but effective hatchet jobs on Starmer was written in the guardian BEFORE the election. That weird interview where he admitted he didn’t dream, spoke about himself in the third person, and came across as quite unlikeable. That now seems deliberate
Someone at guardian towers - someone very high up - has an “issue” with the Labour leadership3 -
I hardly think somebody intent on being the USA's Mao Lenin and Trotsky rolled into one can be described as insubstantial.Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight1 -
Counterfactual is the problem. How many more would it have been without minimum pricing?DavidL said:1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.
(I don't know the answer but you have to be careful with such things)0 -
I don't find her Ministerial career to demonstrate particularly strong right wing instincts. I think she is quite a good right wing commentry provider, but so were Cameron and Osborne in their day - always picking public fights with the EU followed by private capitulations. Nobody (expect idiots) classes those two as right wing Tories these days.kinabalu said:
Badenoch isn't right wing from where you're viewing then?Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.TimS said:
Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.BartholomewRoberts said:Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.
Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.
The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.
I would rather a thoughtful right winger who speaks a little less but means it. I wouldn't mind if she won, but it wouldn't particularly surprise me if she won power then failed to deliver.1 -
For fear of upsetting Northern Monkey, old Trigger’s Broom seems somewhat deranged when it comes to politics.GIN1138 said:1 -
Careerists thinking he’s the runaway winner. I could see that softening after this resultrottenborough said:
I don't understand how Jenrick is getting 33 votes. They'd be mad to elect him leader.FF43 said:
If MPs want to prevent members from voting for the worst candidate by a margin, Jenrick, they could pile on Badenoch plus another, probably Cleverly. Not sure Tory MPs are as cunningly devious as their reputation however.BartholomewRoberts said:
She was expected to get the transfers from Patel. It wasn't enough that she got, so the writing is on the wall, as she's not going to get many transfers from Stride or anyone else likely to be eliminated from here.Sandpit said:Oh, so Kemi Badenoch got the most transfers.
That doesn’t help the ‘narrative’.
Why?0 -
Maybe around 2026 we'll get the launch of a new iteration of TIG Change UK with people like Vorderman as leading figures.GIN1138 said:
I suspect she'll gradually become more and more bitter towards Labour and shift her support over to Sir Ed?williamglenn said:
Having carved out a niche as a celebrity activist, where does she go from here?GIN1138 said:1 -
Fungibility with other narcotics is the other problem. Drug death also at record highEabhal said:
Counterfactual is the problem. How many more would it have been without minimum pricing?DavidL said:1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.
(I don't know the answer but you have to be careful with such things)
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To keep the likes and retweets and clicks going she simply turns on labour.williamglenn said:
Having carved out a niche as a celebrity activist, where does she go from here?GIN1138 said:1 -
Her maths can't be very good if she thinks taking the fuel payment away from the wealthiest pensioners will increase inequality.GIN1138 said:1 -
That's Jenrick +5, Badenoch +6, Tugendhat +4, and both Cleverly and Stride unchanged from the first round.
It's perhaps rash to assume that these were all direct transfers from Patel's 14 (plus one who didn't vote last time). However, that's clearly rather stalled the bit of momentum Cleverly seemed to have.
It feels to me as if this is shaping up to enable the right to pick their opponent through tactical voting in round 3. Weirdly, there is some perverse incentive for Cleverly and Tugendhat to slightly underperform at the Conference on the basis the weaker of them is more likely to make the final two than the stronger!1 -
I think it's your economics which is not very good. The opportunity cost to the wealthy of losing the benefit is nil, to the poor it is considerable. So it increases inequality.Andy_JS said:
Her maths can't be very good if she thinks taking the fuel payment away from the wealthiest pensioners will increase inequality.GIN1138 said:1 -
It's a crazy system.SirNorfolkPassmore said:That's Jenrick +5, Badenoch +6, Tugendhat +4, and both Cleverly and Stride unchanged from the first round.
It's perhaps rash to assume that these were all direct transfers from Patel's 14 (plus one who didn't vote last time). However, that's clearly rather stalled the bit of momentum Cleverly seemed to have.
It feels to me as if this is shaping up to enable the right to pick their opponent through tactical voting in round 3. Weirdly, there is some perverse incentive for Cleverly and Tugendhat to slightly underperform at the Conference on the basis the weaker of them is more likely to make the final two than the stronger!0 -
I sense someone hankering for a Joseph or a Redwood. Just not on offer, I'm afraid. Not here in 2024. The right are all a bit agricultural now.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don't find her Ministerial career to demonstrate particularly strong right wing instincts. I think she is quite a good right wing commentry provider, but so were Cameron and Osborne in their day - always picking public fights with the EU followed by private capitulations. Nobody (expect idiots) classes those two as right wing Tories these days.kinabalu said:
Badenoch isn't right wing from where you're viewing then?Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.TimS said:
Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.BartholomewRoberts said:Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.
Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.
The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.
I would rather a thoughtful right winger who speaks a little less but means it. I wouldn't mind if she won, but it wouldn't particularly surprise me if she won power then failed to deliver.0 -
KGIN1138 said:Kemi looking stronger now! Previous thread header (that I didn't comment on) looking rather silly, lol!
E
M
I0 -
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight1 -
Switch channels when the adverts come on? In Pennsylvannia they are expecting 5 political adverts every half hour this autumn.....DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight0 -
She'll struggle to do as badly as Biden in the previous debate.DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight0 -
I feel fairly comfortable with Jenrick. Even his corrupt stuff I don't really mind. I prefer the small scale troughing of a Johnson or a Jenrick to Tony Blair ending up with a multi-million pound Laurence Ellison-funded foundation without a stain on his character, or Sunak handing millions of pounds to a company his investment fund is balls deep in and it all being fine because it's a 'blind trust'. Those are the people you really have to watch out for.kinabalu said:
I sense someone hankering for a Joseph or a Redwood. Just not on offer, I'm afraid. Not here in 2024. The right are all a bit agricultural now.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don't find her Ministerial career to demonstrate particularly strong right wing instincts. I think she is quite a good right wing commentry provider, but so were Cameron and Osborne in their day - always picking public fights with the EU followed by private capitulations. Nobody (expect idiots) classes those two as right wing Tories these days.kinabalu said:
Badenoch isn't right wing from where you're viewing then?Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.TimS said:
Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.BartholomewRoberts said:Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.
Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.
The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.
I would rather a thoughtful right winger who speaks a little less but means it. I wouldn't mind if she won, but it wouldn't particularly surprise me if she won power then failed to deliver.0 -
How would one tell?SirNorfolkPassmore said:That's Jenrick +5, Badenoch +6, Tugendhat +4, and both Cleverly and Stride unchanged from the first round.
It's perhaps rash to assume that these were all direct transfers from Patel's 14 (plus one who didn't vote last time). However, that's clearly rather stalled the bit of momentum Cleverly seemed to have.
It feels to me as if this is shaping up to enable the right to pick their opponent through tactical voting in round 3. Weirdly, there is some perverse incentive for Cleverly and Tugendhat to slightly underperform at the Conference on the basis the weaker of them is more likely to make the final two than the stronger!0 -
Addicts prioritise their addiction. Putting a minimum price on alcohol tends to mean that a poor diet gets even worse, and any family even more deprived.DavidL said:1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.
I think there needs to be more productive ways of addressing addiction.5 -
Well said.Foxy said:
Addicts prioritise their addiction. Putting a minimum price on alcohol tends to mean that a poor diet gets even worse, and any family even more deprived.DavidL said:1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.
I think there needs to be more productive ways of addressing addiction.2 -
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
1h
If we assume the winning candidate will get over 45 votes, 38 votes will guarantee a final 2 slot. So Jenrick & Badenoch are already pretty close to home, if not yet hosed.0 -
The muted mics aren’t helpful for Harris . She does have to find a way to get under his skin so he blows his top .0
-
True, and there was an improvement in the early years. For me, the policy was flawed because it was not generating the income to pay for making good the damage caused by alcohol. I would far rather have higher duties than minimum pricing which simply lines the retailer's pockets. If that money was hypothecated to clinics helping people to dry out and public health messaging so much he better.Eabhal said:
Counterfactual is the problem. How many more would it have been without minimum pricing?DavidL said:1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.
(I don't know the answer but you have to be careful with such things)2 -
Johnson a small scale trougher?Luckyguy1983 said:
I feel fairly comfortable with Jenrick. Even his corrupt stuff I don't really mind. I prefer the small scale troughing of a Johnson or a Jenrick to Tony Blair ending up with a multi-million pound Laurence Ellison-funded foundation without a stain on his character, or Sunak handing millions of pounds to a company his investment fund is balls deep in and it all being fine because it's a 'blind trust'. Those are the people you really have to watch out for.kinabalu said:
I sense someone hankering for a Joseph or a Redwood. Just not on offer, I'm afraid. Not here in 2024. The right are all a bit agricultural now.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don't find her Ministerial career to demonstrate particularly strong right wing instincts. I think she is quite a good right wing commentry provider, but so were Cameron and Osborne in their day - always picking public fights with the EU followed by private capitulations. Nobody (expect idiots) classes those two as right wing Tories these days.kinabalu said:
Badenoch isn't right wing from where you're viewing then?Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.TimS said:
Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.BartholomewRoberts said:Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.
Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.
The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.
I would rather a thoughtful right winger who speaks a little less but means it. I wouldn't mind if she won, but it wouldn't particularly surprise me if she won power then failed to deliver.
Can I interest you in this 1:20 scale model of a bridge?1 -
She needs to speak in short sentences. Look at the camera. I'm sure she has been well coached.DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight
I have a busy day tomorrow. Solid Nietzsche. But I think I'll stay up for the debate.1 -
It's quite possible that if you raise the price of cheap alcohol, addicts eat less foodEabhal said:
Counterfactual is the problem. How many more would it have been without minimum pricing?DavidL said:1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.
(I don't know the answer but you have to be careful with such things)0 -
I'll be looking for a full report on PB first thing in the morning.Barnesian said:
She needs to speak in short sentences. Look at the camera. I'm sure she has been well coached.DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight
I have a busy day tomorrow. Solid Nietzsche. But I think I'll stay up for the debate.1 -
Media personality seeks attention is nothing new. So she'll go to wherever she thinks she'll get the attention she wants.williamglenn said:
Having carved out a niche as a celebrity activist, where does she go from here?GIN1138 said:0 -
Or a bus?mercator said:
Johnson a small scale trougher?Luckyguy1983 said:
I feel fairly comfortable with Jenrick. Even his corrupt stuff I don't really mind. I prefer the small scale troughing of a Johnson or a Jenrick to Tony Blair ending up with a multi-million pound Laurence Ellison-funded foundation without a stain on his character, or Sunak handing millions of pounds to a company his investment fund is balls deep in and it all being fine because it's a 'blind trust'. Those are the people you really have to watch out for.kinabalu said:
I sense someone hankering for a Joseph or a Redwood. Just not on offer, I'm afraid. Not here in 2024. The right are all a bit agricultural now.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don't find her Ministerial career to demonstrate particularly strong right wing instincts. I think she is quite a good right wing commentry provider, but so were Cameron and Osborne in their day - always picking public fights with the EU followed by private capitulations. Nobody (expect idiots) classes those two as right wing Tories these days.kinabalu said:
Badenoch isn't right wing from where you're viewing then?Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.TimS said:
Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.BartholomewRoberts said:Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.
Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.
The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.
I would rather a thoughtful right winger who speaks a little less but means it. I wouldn't mind if she won, but it wouldn't particularly surprise me if she won power then failed to deliver.
Can I interest you in this 1:20 scale model of a bridge?0 -
Thanks for the email. Accepted.mercator said:
I think it's your economics which is not very good. The opportunity cost to the wealthy of losing the benefit is nil, to the poor it is considerable. So it increases inequality.Andy_JS said:
Her maths can't be very good if she thinks taking the fuel payment away from the wealthiest pensioners will increase inequality.GIN1138 said:1 -
Tonight, a Special Episode of #LawAndOrder #Philadelphia - Prosecutor vs Convicted Felon.6
-
Wait. What? The whole point of the v long leadership election was to allow several candidates to parade before conference!!!!
Ten minutes.
This is not TED.
Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧
@montie
·
5h
Putting a ten minute limit on the speeches that the four final leadership candidates can deliver at the party conference is a dumbing down of debate and a big missed opportunity.
Please reverse it
@BobBlackman
/ Richard Fuller etc
https://x.com/montie/status/18334998630628720911 -
Get Heath back to lead the party?rottenborough said:Wait. What? The whole point of the v long leadership election was to allow several candidates to parade before conference!!!!
Ten minutes.
This is not TED.
Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧
@montie
·
5h
Putting a ten minute limit on the speeches that the four final leadership candidates can deliver at the party conference is a dumbing down of debate and a big missed opportunity.
Please reverse it
@BobBlackman
/ Richard Fuller etc
https://x.com/montie/status/1833499863062872091
I don't think they are that desperate yet.0 -
It does seem bizarre. There's nothing else the conference can usefully talk about, like formulating policies for the manifesto for the lost election of 2028, so why not give them half an hour apiece? This looks like a TV news driven decision.rottenborough said:Wait. What? The whole point of the v long leadership election was to allow several candidates to parade before conference!!!!
Ten minutes.
This is not TED.
Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧
@montie
·
5h
Putting a ten minute limit on the speeches that the four final leadership candidates can deliver at the party conference is a dumbing down of debate and a big missed opportunity.
Please reverse it
@BobBlackman
/ Richard Fuller etc
https://x.com/montie/status/18334998630628720910 -
How rude and disrespectful can you be? Both are decent men who have dedicated their lives to public service. One of them has served our armed forces with distinction and made statesmanlike speeches in the House. How dare you use such offensive language.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.TimS said:
Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.BartholomewRoberts said:Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.
Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.
The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.0 -
The buses were actually good value. Still in service and going strong. Was on one today.rottenborough said:
Or a bus?mercator said:
Johnson a small scale trougher?Luckyguy1983 said:
I feel fairly comfortable with Jenrick. Even his corrupt stuff I don't really mind. I prefer the small scale troughing of a Johnson or a Jenrick to Tony Blair ending up with a multi-million pound Laurence Ellison-funded foundation without a stain on his character, or Sunak handing millions of pounds to a company his investment fund is balls deep in and it all being fine because it's a 'blind trust'. Those are the people you really have to watch out for.kinabalu said:
I sense someone hankering for a Joseph or a Redwood. Just not on offer, I'm afraid. Not here in 2024. The right are all a bit agricultural now.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don't find her Ministerial career to demonstrate particularly strong right wing instincts. I think she is quite a good right wing commentry provider, but so were Cameron and Osborne in their day - always picking public fights with the EU followed by private capitulations. Nobody (expect idiots) classes those two as right wing Tories these days.kinabalu said:
Badenoch isn't right wing from where you're viewing then?Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.TimS said:
Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.BartholomewRoberts said:Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.
Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.
The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.
I would rather a thoughtful right winger who speaks a little less but means it. I wouldn't mind if she won, but it wouldn't particularly surprise me if she won power then failed to deliver.
Can I interest you in this 1:20 scale model of a bridge?
Made in the U.K., hybrid designed to be evolved into fully electric.1 -
0
-
Get off your high horse here, while I rarely agree with luckyguy....the fact someone did good in a completely different job does not make them fit for purpose as politicians. Neither of them are but then that is most politiciansgettingbetter said:
How rude and disrespectful can you be? Both are decent men who have dedicated their lives to public service. One of them has served our armed forces with distinction and made statesmanlike speeches in the House. How dare you use such offensive language.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.TimS said:
Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.BartholomewRoberts said:Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.
Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.
The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.0 -
What's the duck thing?Taz said:LOL
This is cracking
https://x.com/defiantls/status/1833574294619844797?s=61
Apart Donald needing to be kidnapped by aliens (Nannoo. Nannoo.), and there being an ex-duck (OK ex-live-duck) in my freezer?0 -
Is that a Nazi duck?Taz said:LOL
This is cracking
https://x.com/defiantls/status/1833574294619844797?s=610 -
Hmm. Badenoch is currently on 28, so that puts her ten away from the not-losing post. That's unlikely to happen from Stride's voters.rottenborough said:
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
1h
If we assume the winning candidate will get over 45 votes, 38 votes will guarantee a final 2 slot. So Jenrick & Badenoch are already pretty close to home, if not yet hosed.
Whilst she is close to the finish line, the final part is incredibly steep for her.0 -
If Jenrick is winning bigly by then some of his supporters may lend votes to another candidate to keep Badenoch out, assuming she’s the one he fears most in the member vote.Stuartinromford said:
Hmm. Badenoch is currently on 28, so that puts her ten away from the not-losing post. That's unlikely to happen from Stride's voters.rottenborough said:
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
1h
If we assume the winning candidate will get over 45 votes, 38 votes will guarantee a final 2 slot. So Jenrick & Badenoch are already pretty close to home, if not yet hosed.
Whilst she is close to the finish line, the final part is incredibly steep for her.0 -
Oh I see.MattW said:
What's the duck thing?Taz said:LOL
This is cracking
https://x.com/defiantls/status/1833574294619844797?s=61
Apart Donald needing to be kidnapped by aliens (Nannoo. Nannoo.), and there being an ex-duck (OK ex-live-duck) in my freezer?
Donald Shmuck needs to save the Ducks from the Evilz duck-chomping Haitians.
I think that Usonian Ducks would be more concerned with Yanks than Haitians:
Notably, the number of active waterfowl hunters in 2021-2022 dropped below 1 million for the third time since 2015. After bouncing up to 1.042 million in 2020-2021, the number slipped to 991,200 last season. The number of active waterfowl hunters in the United States was the third-lowest estimated since 1952-1953 when the USFWS began recording the statistic.
Not surprisingly, fewer hunters in the marshes and fields led to a reduced duck harvest. In 2021-2022, U.S. hunters shot a total of 9.46 million ducks, a marked decline from 11.14 million in 2020-2021. Dry conditions across a large swath of the prairie breeding grounds certainly led to fewer ducks in the fall flight last season, and likely contributed to a reduced harvest total.
https://deltawaterfowl.org/usfws-report-fewer-hunters-less-ducks-shot-during-2021-2022-season/
0 -
No, this is a Nazi duck;Malmesbury said:
Is that a Nazi duck?Taz said:LOL
This is cracking
https://x.com/defiantls/status/1833574294619844797?s=61
(Though if the game is Disney characters who would have gone fash given the chance, Scrooge McDuck must be higher on the list.)
1 -
That's correct: I did not get £5 change.kinabalu said:
Did you not get £5 change? That's absolutely gut wrenching. If she wins you'll only make £1.88 for a shrewd call. What sort of world is it where this can happen?viewcode said:
11/8. Returns will be £11.88 if she wins, a profit of £6.88Taz said:
At good odds ?viewcode said:This may be a good time to remind you that I have a fiver on Badenoch
There's a funny story here. As you know I've started using the automated machines as a way of bypassing the talking-to-humans bit, and I didn't realise you had to specify the stake. I put a tenner in the machine and placed the bet, but as I hadn't specified the stake it used the default £5stake and an instant loss of £5. Still, cheap for a valuable learning experience...
1 -
Perhaps they just have a smidgeon of journalistic pride and don't want to be Starmer's unquestioning cheerleader. (The way in which the Telegraph abased itself over Boris is probably motivation enough.)Leon said:The point about the guardian attack on Labour is not that they’re doing it - esp over WFA - but that they are doing it in a number of different ways and with different high profile journalists. And they are also lacing it with personally offensive stuff - like the cartoon linked above and marina hyde being remarkably mean about Starmer and his puritan ways
They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular
That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc
eg one of the most subtle but effective hatchet jobs on Starmer was written in the guardian BEFORE the election. That weird interview where he admitted he didn’t dream, spoke about himself in the third person, and came across as quite unlikeable. That now seems deliberate
Someone at guardian towers - someone very high up - has an “issue” with the Labour leadership0 -
Trump's a Nazi duck.Stuartinromford said:
No, this is a Nazi duck;Malmesbury said:
Is that a Nazi duck?Taz said:LOL
This is cracking
https://x.com/defiantls/status/1833574294619844797?s=61
(Though if the game is Disney characters who would have gone fash given the chance, Scrooge McDuck must be higher on the list.)
Well, at least a quackers fascist.2 -
If you think the above is rude and disrespectful, I wish you all the best in your posting career here.gettingbetter said:
How rude and disrespectful can you be? Both are decent men who have dedicated their lives to public service. One of them has served our armed forces with distinction and made statesmanlike speeches in the House. How dare you use such offensive language.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like a Badenoch Jenrick final, not because it would be a right wing stitch up (I don't really see her as right wing in the traditionally understood sense) but because it would be a real competition with a real debate. Neither Cleverly nor Tugend is really a serious candidate in my opinion. They are both fairly well-meaning daft centrist farts.TimS said:
Badenoch isn’t that far behind Jenrick so her best bet might actually be to try to nudge above him or at least get even closer. He’s certainly not pulling away.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not guaranteed, but not probable that she'll get many.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don’t think it is guaranteed that Badenoch won't get any Stride-switchers.BartholomewRoberts said:Punters betting on Badenoch after these results are mugs like the punters who bet on Remain after Remain won the first declaration of the night in 2016, while we were looking at Andy's spreadsheet and said it was under-par.
Badenoch may have got transfers from Patel but what she's got is under par for the state of play. Given Stride and either Cleverly/Tugendhat will be transferred from here, Badenoch is a clear lay.
The Venn Diagram of Badenoch and Stride backers will be quite an interesting intersection.
Then she might be able to orchestrate switchers from Jenrick. I don’t think the numbers make a Jenrick-Badenoch final very feasible.0 -
He's fowl.ydoethur said:
Trump's a Nazi duck.Stuartinromford said:
No, this is a Nazi duck;Malmesbury said:
Is that a Nazi duck?Taz said:LOL
This is cracking
https://x.com/defiantls/status/1833574294619844797?s=61
(Though if the game is Disney characters who would have gone fash given the chance, Scrooge McDuck must be higher on the list.)
Well, at least a quackers fascist. 0 -
You get paid to stare into the abyss ?Barnesian said:
She needs to speak in short sentences. Look at the camera. I'm sure she has been well coached.DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight
I have a busy day tomorrow. Solid Nietzsche. But I think I'll stay up for the debate.0 -
Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.
But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.0 -
"Harris was amazing and Trump was useless!' / 'Harris was useless and Trump was amazing!' / 'Polling inconclusive'.DavidL said:
I'll be looking for a full report on PB first thing in the morning.Barnesian said:
She needs to speak in short sentences. Look at the camera. I'm sure she has been well coached.DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight
I have a busy day tomorrow. Solid Nietzsche. But I think I'll stay up for the debate.
1 -
Everywhere he goes you have eggsplosive results.viewcode said:
He's fowl.ydoethur said:
Trump's a Nazi duck.Stuartinromford said:
No, this is a Nazi duck;Malmesbury said:
Is that a Nazi duck?Taz said:LOL
This is cracking
https://x.com/defiantls/status/1833574294619844797?s=61
(Though if the game is Disney characters who would have gone fash given the chance, Scrooge McDuck must be higher on the list.)
Well, at least a quackers fascist.
And that's just his trousers.1 -
Take a look at the rise in benzo (valium and similar) usage since minimum unit pricing came in.JohnLilburne said:
It's quite possible that if you raise the price of cheap alcohol, addicts eat less foodEabhal said:
Counterfactual is the problem. How many more would it have been without minimum pricing?DavidL said:1277 deaths caused by alcohol in Scotland. Another record in the last 15 years. It would appear that the minimum unit charge has not worked. I don't say that to make a political point. It was an interesting idea. But the idea that addicts are dissuaded by price alone was always optimistic. We need more investment in treatment, in care and changes in social attitudes. Not easy and not simple. I wish anyone dealing with this the very best of success. It is a public health tragedy.
(I don't know the answer but you have to be careful with such things)
Long term benzo use tends to rot the brain but not the body, so expect significant increases in costs of treating dementia in the next decade or two.
The idea that people were going to see the cost of a can of special brew had doubled, and gone "ooh, I well wanted to get drunk, but now I'll go for a nice healthy run instead" was always bleeding ridiculous.0 -
Or they just realise what an empty barrel they're scraping and don't want to give them too much rope to escape it.mercator said:
It does seem bizarre. There's nothing else the conference can usefully talk about, like formulating policies for the manifesto for the lost election of 2028, so why not give them half an hour apiece? This looks like a TV news driven decision.rottenborough said:Wait. What? The whole point of the v long leadership election was to allow several candidates to parade before conference!!!!
Ten minutes.
This is not TED.
Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧
@montie
·
5h
Putting a ten minute limit on the speeches that the four final leadership candidates can deliver at the party conference is a dumbing down of debate and a big missed opportunity.
Please reverse it
@BobBlackman
/ Richard Fuller etc
https://x.com/montie/status/18334998630628720910 -
The worry is Trump smashed Biden out of the park. If he does the same to Harris today it's game over- for the World!DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight2 -
Naah, Starmer's a miserable dud, and they are saying so. Not a single hint of Nice start sir K but perhaps a bit less or more of this or that, because that article cannot be written. How one longs for the vision and competence of a Liz.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps they just have a smidgeon of journalistic pride and don't want to be Starmer's unquestioning cheerleader. (The way in which the Telegraph abased itself over Boris is probably motivation enough.)Leon said:The point about the guardian attack on Labour is not that they’re doing it - esp over WFA - but that they are doing it in a number of different ways and with different high profile journalists. And they are also lacing it with personally offensive stuff - like the cartoon linked above and marina hyde being remarkably mean about Starmer and his puritan ways
They genuinely seem to dislike the government, Starmer and Reeves in particular
That is of significance given they are the main left
wing media voice alongside the bbc
eg one of the most subtle but effective hatchet jobs on Starmer was written in the guardian BEFORE the election. That weird interview where he admitted he didn’t dream, spoke about himself in the third person, and came across as quite unlikeable. That now seems deliberate
Someone at guardian towers - someone very high up - has an “issue” with the Labour leadership0 -
JENRICK0
-
'Smarmy' against 'Barmy'1
-
.
Something about cracking down on this sort of thing, I think ?MattW said:
What's the duck thing?Taz said:LOL
This is cracking
https://x.com/defiantls/status/1833574294619844797?s=61
Apart Donald needing to be kidnapped by aliens (Nannoo. Nannoo.), and there being an ex-duck (OK ex-live-duck) in my freezer?
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1833200274783035576
0 -
Not really. The Donald don't wanna nuke nobody, he just wants to chat shite on twitter. He might make Usonia a worse place (this is not certain) but it's not great anyway, and neither of us lives there so who cares?Mexicanpete said:
The worry is Trump smashed Biden out of the park. If he does the same to Harris today it's game over- for the World!DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight0 -
It's solid Kafka you need to watch out for. Spend all morning trying to get carapace-side up, even before you've had your cornflakes.Nigelb said:
You get paid to stare into the abyss ?Barnesian said:
She needs to speak in short sentences. Look at the camera. I'm sure she has been well coached.DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight
I have a busy day tomorrow. Solid Nietzsche. But I think I'll stay up for the debate.0 -
I don't see the point of the 50-odd Labour MPs who didn't show up to the Winter fuel vote. They have torpedoed their chance of preferment, for no electoral benefit. Nobody is going to be impressed on the doorstep next election that they bunked off when the vote was on. It was vote against or vote for really.3
-
One can already predict the PBers who will give the debate to Trumpton regardlessohnotnow said:
"Harris was amazing and Trump was useless!' / 'Harris was useless and Trump was amazing!' / 'Polling inconclusive'.DavidL said:
I'll be looking for a full report on PB first thing in the morning.Barnesian said:
She needs to speak in short sentences. Look at the camera. I'm sure she has been well coached.DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight
I have a busy day tomorrow. Solid Nietzsche. But I think I'll stay up for the debate.0 -
A new tax regime. Take her millions out the UK.williamglenn said:
Having carved out a niche as a celebrity activist, where does she go from here?GIN1138 said:
She won't be alone. At some point, as the cash departs, the Labour Party will realise those rich fuckers they despise actually pay for the NHS.
If the wealthy top 1% were to up sticks and depart overnight (unlikely as that may be) then Reeves would be 27% down in her Income Tax receipts.1 -
I don't get paid. Nietzche says convictions are more dangerous than lies.Nigelb said:
You get paid to stare into the abyss ?Barnesian said:
She needs to speak in short sentences. Look at the camera. I'm sure she has been well coached.DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight
I have a busy day tomorrow. Solid Nietzsche. But I think I'll stay up for the debate.
You can counter lies with evidence and the truth.
It's much more difficult to counter convictions.0 -
Is there a chance Trump literally poos his pants tonight?0
-
I can understand why Republicans would be worried, given what's left now are a bunch of useless duckers.Nigelb said:.
Something about cracking down on this sort of thing, I think ?MattW said:
What's the duck thing?Taz said:LOL
This is cracking
https://x.com/defiantls/status/1833574294619844797?s=61
Apart Donald needing to be kidnapped by aliens (Nannoo. Nannoo.), and there being an ex-duck (OK ex-live-duck) in my freezer?
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/18332002747830355760 -
I recommend the following device be used at Conservative conference for the would-be leaders speeches:
And, of course, for all sermons.
(Shipton Solers, Cotswolds)1 -
Trump didn't smash Biden. Biden did it himself. Trump just stood there.Mexicanpete said:
The worry is Trump smashed Biden out of the park. If he does the same to Harris today it's game over- for the World!DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight1 -
I’ll have to check mine. When I adopted Virgin cable many years ago the landline was compulsory even though I have never had it plugged in and don’t know the number. Landlines are in the same bucket of obsolescence as cash.MattW said:Just coming up to date with landlines allegedly vanishing from 2027, and cut my temporarily out of contract broadband charges by quite a lot.
But monthly start date was 2 days ago. Grrr.0 -
Actually, Trump spouted a load of incoherent nonsense that suggested he was suffering from some kind of psychotic episode.Barnesian said:
Trump didn't smash Biden. Biden did it himself. Trump just stood there.Mexicanpete said:
The worry is Trump smashed Biden out of the park. If he does the same to Harris today it's game over- for the World!DavidL said:
She really needs to come over as serious and Presidential tonight. Less laughing, less joy, more serious, substantive points. This is her chance to speak to millions of voters who will never go near a rally and switch channels when the adverts come on. She should, in my view, ignore Trump as much as possible. As she has correctly said he is not a serious man, why treat him as such?Leon said:
Yes. @rcs1000 has set me straightkinabalu said:
It's not polling. It's just the equivalent of him being a 53% fav on betfair.Leon said:
Why dodgy? Genuine query. I actually don’t have time to DMORkinabalu said:
I've DMOR - and it's well dodgy.Leon said:No idea who polymarket are, so DYOR
Trump takes his biggest lead in a month with 56 days to the election - Via Polymarket
🔴 Trump 53% (+8)
🔵 Harris 45%
polymarket.com/elections
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1833548298050761034?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Harris is winning this election.
I’ve gotta get packed and drive myself into the Cascade mountains
Bit naughty of Zerohedge to present it as straight polling, but then, Zerohedge
I am starting to wonder about Harris now, tho. She does look increasingly insubstantial now the euphoria of booting Biden has worn off
She really needs Trump to fuck up the debate tonight
It was just slightly less incoherent than Biden.8
