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Today is the day of crossover – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    a

    Boeing has entered the chat with a 737 Max and a Starliner capsule.
    Yes, but those failures are much more structural than operational. Literally structural in some cases.

    The ‘is-it-a-door-or-is-it-not-a-door’ question will already be front and centre at every engineering company and regulator. No, of course you don’t need a written process and two certified inspectors to sign off closing a door…
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969
    edited August 2024
    Deleted
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    Leon said:

    Short honeymoon for Two Tier Kier


    Is the honeymoon over? Keir Starmer’s favourability ratings have returned to pre-election levels

    Favourable: 37% (-3 from 30-31 Jul)
    Unfavourable: 53% (+4)
    Net favourability: -16 (last week was -9)

    https://x.com/yougov/status/1821499417142174102?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This will look good when compared to Reeves
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,230
    edited August 2024
    Pleased to report that Pineapple Fritters at the 2nd closest chippy cost £1.40.

    Which is a bit much compared to the £5 for the mini-fish, fishcake, chips and mushy peas, but OTOH they are cooked in front of you just like the Teppanyaki at the long-lamented Broadgate Tatsuso.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    MattW said:

    Pleased to report that Pineapple Fritters at the 2nd closest chippy cost £1.40.

    Which is a but much compared to the £5 for the mini-fish, fishcake, chips and mushy peas, but OTOH they are cooked in front of you just like the Teppanyaki at the long-lamented Broadgate Tatsuso.

    Oh man, that place was wild.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096

    As Private Eye said, and probably others, we are at that stage in the leadership race where centrists like Jenrick and Tugendhat are trying to sound extreme and right-wingers like Kemi and Priti to appear conciliatory.
    Jenrick used to be a centrist but he's definitely moved right, and that was before the leadership election was available. Tugendhat has moved right since the election was announced and frankly isn't credible to my mind with his damascene ECHR binning ideas. Cleverly is way more credible than Tugendhat to my mind as a relative centrist option for the Tories.
  • MattW said:

    Reports I've heard point out that troops in Russia are likely to be wet-behind-the-ears conscripts, who are not sent to Ukraine.

    I've no idea on the UA tactics, unless they expect it to draw Russian troops away from frontlines in quantities justifying the 2-3k UA troops who are reported to be involved.
    I thought Russia was sending its conscripts to the meat grinder after just a few weeks of training, so whom is it that's too wet-behind-the-ear to even be on the front line?

    Three good options exist for going into Russia.

    1: Cause Russian generals to panic, get rid of Putin, and sue for peace.
    2: Cause Russia to panic, pull troops from the front line to defend Russian territory.
    3: Blitz through to liberate Ukrainian territory via Russian territory, bypassing the mines and defences laid by Russia in Ukrainian territory.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,310
    I’m being sent to Pristina. Has anyone else been sent to Pristina? What can you do if you’re sent to Pristina?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    The panic has now produced reports of clashes with Ukrainian forces near Kromskie Byki - which is halfway between the border and the Kursk nuclear power plant.

    If this is legit, it's most likely Ukrainian sabotage/reconnaissance groups causing mischief in Russian rear areas, rather than an advance that will reach that far, but it's reminiscent of how Ukrainian forces were able to cause havoc with Russian supply lines in the first month of the war.

    You can see how this could develop into a major crisis of credibility for Putin if this continues.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    MattW said:

    Reports I've heard point out that troops in Russia are likely to be wet-behind-the-ears conscripts, who are not sent to Ukraine.

    I've no idea on the UA tactics, unless they expect it to draw Russian troops away from frontlines in quantities justifying the 2-3k UA troops who are reported to be involved.
    The UA troops involved are presumably some of the best they have, who must know that they are on a suicide mission if they can’t extract themselves.

    But it does highlight that Russia can’t defend its own border, with their forces spread thinly to allow deployments further South.

    If this is a successful raid by UA troops, we might well see this as a regular occurrence. I can’t imagine that the UA army can actually hold any Russian territory for more than a few days, but they’ve shown they can do it and draw what’s likely to be a massive redeployment of Russian troops from more important (to UA) places.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819
    Leon said:

    I’m being sent to Pristina. Has anyone else been sent to Pristina? What can you do if you’re sent to Pristina?

    You want to meet this guy, 3 Leicester lads went viral with an Albanian Taxi Driver.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/travel/europe/lads-love-taxi-driver-much-33402976?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Leon said:

    I’m being sent to Pristina. Has anyone else been sent to Pristina? What can you do if you’re sent to Pristina?

    I'd recommend flags and garb with a silver stylized double-headed eagle on a red shield with a crown above the shield on a red on blue on white horizontal tricolor.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited August 2024
    Leon said:

    I’m being sent to Pristina. Has anyone else been sent to Pristina? What can you do if you’re sent to Pristina?

    You’re 325 years too late for the war there.

    Head back to Kiev.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,230
    Brains Trust:

    Has anyone had any success listening to things live using Twitter Spaces?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,104
    Sandpit said:

    You’re 35 years too late for the war there.

    Head back to Kiev.
    25, not 35.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    MattW said:

    Brains Trust:

    Has anyone had any success listening to things live using Twitter Spaces?

    No.

    Ask Ron DeSantis.

    https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/5/24/23736883/ron-desantis-presidential-announcement-twitter
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    rcs1000 said:

    This attack by Ukraine shows that Russia's invasion was merely a preemptive counterattack.
    Do you think I should give them a copy of this?


  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,310
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd recommend flags and garb with a silver stylized double-headed eagle on a red shield with a crown above the shield on a red on blue on white horizontal tricolor.
    I’m being sent there because it is apparently the cheapest destination in Europe (absent Belarus, Ukraine for obvs). Looks like that’s right. 2 nights in the best 5 star in the country is about £120
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,310
    You could basically live in a 5 star hotel in pristina without breaking the bank. But, you’re in pristina
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited August 2024
    Leon said:

    I’m being sent there because it is apparently the cheapest destination in Europe (absent Belarus, Ukraine for obvs). Looks like that’s right. 2 nights in the best 5 star in the country is about £120
    £60 a night. That’s £1,800 a month. All bills included, and I bet if you actually wanted to stay for a month the price would be reduced to a grand or so.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,310
    Sandpit said:

    £60 a night. That’s £1,800 a month. All bills included, and I bet if you actually wanted to stay for a month the price would be reduced to a grand or so.
    Also, it looks REALLY nice. This could be an incredible discovery. The new Montenegro!


  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 981
    Kaye Hoey being extremely dishonest here.


    Kate Hoey
    @CatharineHoey
    Still no answer to why it will take to next year before Alex Rudakubana the alleged murderer of the 3 young girls in South
    Oct will stand trial ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,130
    Lol. Don’t think Andrew will be troubling the ‘women with penises’ police if he ever decides to make the change.


  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,230
    Leon said:

    I’m being sent to Pristina. Has anyone else been sent to Pristina? What can you do if you’re sent to Pristina?

    You can visit the statue of Bill Clinton !

    (TBH I think you will need to be creative.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
    Sandpit said:

    The UA troops involved are presumably some of the best they have, who must know that they are on a suicide mission if they can’t extract themselves.

    But it does highlight that Russia can’t defend its own border, with their forces spread thinly to allow deployments further South.

    If this is a successful raid by UA troops, we might well see this as a regular occurrence. I can’t imagine that the UA army can actually hold any Russian territory for more than a few days, but they’ve shown they can do it and draw what’s likely to be a massive redeployment of Russian troops from more important (to UA) places.
    It's also a demonstration that a border of that length cannot be defended, except through deterrence.
    Which is why any credible peace deal requires NATO membership for Ukraine.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,143
    Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    ·
    2h
    New
    @CookPolitical
    : It’s back to a Toss Up. Three Electoral College rating changes:

    AZ: Lean R to Toss Up
    NV Lean R to Toss Up
    GA: Lean R to Toss Up

    https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1821510305396220325
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,130
    Sandpit said:

    You’re 325 years too late for the war there.

    Head back to Kiev.
    Kursk for the true adrenaline junky.
    I believe the Kursk nuclear plant now only has women staff (men off to the meat grinder etc), brownie points for first western hack to interview them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,588
    @PpollingNumbers
    #New General Election Poll

    🔴 Trump 49% (+5)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Rasmussen #C - 1749 LV - 8/7
    @PpollingNumbers

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1821548407418200187

    @CNBC
    General Election Poll

    🔴 Trump 48% (+2)
    🔵 Harris 46%

    POS/Hart #B - 1001 RV - 8/4

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1821544979551916033

    #New General Election Poll - Wisconsin

    🔵 Harris 48% (+3)
    🔴 Trump 45%

    RMG #C - 800 RV - 8/5
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1821537198929289250
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,143
    Starmer having a good civil war.

    Farage not so good.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245

    Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    ·
    2h
    New
    @CookPolitical
    : It’s back to a Toss Up. Three Electoral College rating changes:

    AZ: Lean R to Toss Up
    NV Lean R to Toss Up
    GA: Lean R to Toss Up

    https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1821510305396220325

    The fun and games on the Trump meltdown will happen when NC and Fla go to Toss Up...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135

    I thought Russia was sending its conscripts to the meat grinder after just a few weeks of training, so whom is it that's too wet-behind-the-ear to even be on the front line?

    Three good options exist for going into Russia.

    1: Cause Russian generals to panic, get rid of Putin, and sue for peace.
    2: Cause Russia to panic, pull troops from the front line to defend Russian territory.
    3: Blitz through to liberate Ukrainian territory via Russian territory, bypassing the mines and defences laid by Russia in Ukrainian territory.
    I'll add
    4: Advancing into Russia easier than retaking fortified occupied Ukraine, makes Ukraine look more like a "winner", and therefore more likely to sustain US support.
    5: Seizing Russian territory without triggering an "escalation" makes it easier for nervous Western partners to believe that Ukraine can retake Crimea without triggering nuclear war.
    6: Occupied areas of Russia can be traded for occupied areas of Ukraine in future peace negotiations.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,310
    MattW said:

    You can visit the statue of Bill Clinton !

    (TBH I think you will need to be creative.)
    I believe I will

    Number 6 on the list of “things to do in Pristina” is a concrete sign saying “Newborn” in big letters

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g295385-d2343599-Reviews-Newborn_Monument-Pristina.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited August 2024
    Video purported to be of Russian soldiers surrendering to Ukrainian soldiers, inside Russia in Kursk Oblast.
    https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1821210546609250379
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,104

    Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    ·
    2h
    New
    @CookPolitical
    : It’s back to a Toss Up. Three Electoral College rating changes:

    AZ: Lean R to Toss Up
    NV Lean R to Toss Up
    GA: Lean R to Toss Up

    https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1821510305396220325

    It is worth remembering both Arizona and Nevada will have abortion access on the ballot. In the mid-terms, in states where that was a question it proved damaging to the Republicans.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534

    I thought Russia was sending its conscripts to the meat grinder after just a few weeks of training, so whom is it that's too wet-behind-the-ear to even be on the front line?

    Three good options exist for going into Russia.

    1: Cause Russian generals to panic, get rid of Putin, and sue for peace.
    2: Cause Russia to panic, pull troops from the front line to defend Russian territory.
    3: Blitz through to liberate Ukrainian territory via Russian territory, bypassing the mines and defences laid by Russia in Ukrainian territory.
    I might hazard a guess that the ones left behind to guard the borders might well be those who didn’t have the connections to get them out of conscription but were well connected / able to bribe the right people enough to get a safe posting well away from any actual fighting. Until the Ukranians turned up on their doorstep of course.

    Also:

    4. Take enough territory to force the Russians to make some very hard choices about troop deployment.

    Moving troops from one front to another & having them be effective takes a week & ties up the supply network something awful. Sounds like a great way to take the pressure off the other fronts for a week or so.

    oh, and possibly also:

    5. Bring the rail line supplying the front north of Kharkiv under fire control of Ukranian drones / artillery.

    Might be reasonable objectives if the Ukranians can take & hold this Russian territory.

    Stretch goal:

    6. Do a Prigozhin & take Kursk followed by a thunder run to Moscow before the Russians can do anything about it.

    (They probably won’t do this one...)
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534
    Nunu5 said:

    Kaye Hoey being extremely dishonest here.


    Kate Hoey
    @CatharineHoey
    Still no answer to why it will take to next year before Alex Rudakubana the alleged murderer of the 3 young girls in South
    Oct will stand trial ?

    Community notes can be very entertaining sometimes. A genuinely great idea.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,310
    “Natalia from London” is unimpressed by pristina’s sixth most enticing attraction

    “It was just a letters. Even not a “newborn”. Not really monument. Located a bit of outside a central walking street.”
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    Weirdly, Google Maps seems to deny the existence of Kosovo:



    There's a funny dotted line for the border with Serbia, and no "Kosovo" country named.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    It is worth remembering both Arizona and Nevada will have abortion access on the ballot. In the mid-terms, in states where that was a question it proved damaging to the Republicans.
    The abortion bills can favour either party, depending on the exact wording of the question.

    Republicans are already going hard on the Dems who have supported third-trimester abortions, including a certain VP candidate.

    Polling on the subject almost everywhere in the US supports a more European approach, with a 12-20 week limit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
    rcs1000 said:

    Weirdly, Google Maps seems to deny the existence of Kosovo:



    There's a funny dotted line for the border with Serbia, and no "Kosovo" country named.

    Makes invading more difficult ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,707
    Phil said:

    I might hazard a guess that the ones left behind to guard the borders might well be those who didn’t have the connections to get them out of conscription but were well connected / able to bribe the right people enough to get a safe posting well away from any actual fighting. Until the Ukranians turned up on their doorstep of course.

    Also:

    4. Take enough territory to force the Russians to make some very hard choices about troop deployment.

    Moving troops from one front to another & having them be effective takes a week & ties up the supply network something awful. Sounds like a great way to take the pressure off the other fronts for a week or so.

    oh, and possibly also:

    5. Bring the rail line supplying the front north of Kharkiv under fire control of Ukranian drones / artillery.

    Might be reasonable objectives if the Ukranians can take & hold this Russian territory.

    Stretch goal:

    6. Do a Prigozhin & take Kursk followed by a thunder run to Moscow before the Russians can do anything about it.

    (They probably won’t do this one...)
    Doing a Gulf War 1 style hook around the back of the front line would be audacious, but I doubt they have anywhere near the resources to be able to carry that one off.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    Phil said:

    Community notes can be very entertaining sometimes. A genuinely great idea.
    People dis Twitter* under Musk, but he has implemented two genuinely useful features:

    (1) Community notes
    (2) People I follow

    It means I see fewer Marjorie Taylor Greene posts. Which is good.

    * I refuse to call it "X"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    Nigelb said:

    Makes invading more difficult ?
    Bit like Kamino?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,961
    rcs1000 said:

    People dis Twitter* under Musk, but he has implemented two genuinely useful features:

    (1) Community notes
    (2) People I follow

    It means I see fewer Marjorie Taylor Greene posts. Which is good.

    * I refuse to call it "X"
    Community Notes predates Musk
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245
    Leon said:

    Also, it looks REALLY nice. This could be an incredible discovery. The new Montenegro!


    I went through it when I was 16, as I was driven across Yugoslavia on the way to Thessaloniki. I remember it all being nicer than the run through Czechoslovakia and Hungary, which was still very obviously under Soviet domination, Prague having been invaded less than a decade before. Tito's hand was somewhat less heavy. Impressions were helped by it being the summer of 1976, which was even sunnier on the continent than it was back in the UK.

    The roads were fast death traps though, with a cross marking a fatility every few hundred metres.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819
    Nigelb said:
    Hebden Bridge has become Lesbian Mecca apparently.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16962898
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,230
    Leon said:

    I believe I will

    Number 6 on the list of “things to do in Pristina” is a concrete sign saying “Newborn” in big letters

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g295385-d2343599-Reviews-Newborn_Monument-Pristina.html
    I think it's a start of the narrative for modern day Kosovo.

    £10 to a charity of your choice if you come back with a photo of Monica Lewinsky on it in the style of the bull famously added to the Milton Keynes concrete cows.

    (I will not take responsibility for resulting time in gaol.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    viewcode said:

    Community Notes predates Musk
    The correct name is Twatter.

    https://youtu.be/d3Mrfut-FSw?si=SkTdTR7GlZvO_bSE
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    Sandpit said:

    The abortion bills can favour either party, depending on the exact wording of the question.

    Republicans are already going hard on the Dems who have supported third-trimester abortions, including a certain VP candidate.

    Polling on the subject almost everywhere in the US supports a more European approach, with a 12-20 week limit.
    The number of third trimester abortions anywhere is absolutely tiny, and usually only happens when there are serious medical issues.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    viewcode said:

    Community Notes predates Musk
    OK.

    Well that's one new thing - the People I follow option - that Musk's Twitter has implemented that I like.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    TimS said:

    Doing a Gulf War 1 style hook around the back of the front line would be audacious, but I doubt they have anywhere near the resources to be able to carry that one off.
    I don't think they have sufficient troops, logistic capacity, training, or air support to do so, no.

    But, until now, there's been an imbalance where Ukraine has had to defend all of its border with Russia and Belarus to defend against potential attack, and Russia haven't.

    Making more of the border with Russia an active frontline probably favours Ukraine, and it's better if the frontline is inside Russia (as in Kursk) than inside Ukraine (as north of Kharkiv).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245
    Foxy said:

    Hebden Bridge has become Lesbian Mecca apparently.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16962898
    No doubt certain UKIP/Reform types will see it as God's Wrath when the place regularly gets flooded....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
    Foxy said:

    Hebden Bridge has become Lesbian Mecca apparently.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16962898
    It's been that for years.

    But I think we should send Leon to Cornhome.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,588
    edited August 2024
    ydoethur said:

    It is worth remembering both Arizona and Nevada will have abortion access on the ballot. In the mid-terms, in states where that was a question it proved damaging to the Republicans.
    Trump has made clear he will leave abortion law to each state, he does not back a Federal abortion ban as some evangelicals want
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    rcs1000 said:

    People dis Twitter* under Musk, but he has implemented two genuinely useful features:

    (1) Community notes
    (2) People I follow

    It means I see fewer Marjorie Taylor Greene posts. Which is good.

    * I refuse to call it "X"
    Free Speech backed up by Community Notes is actually really useful.

    This one was my personal favourite. The White House deleted it to avoid the context being given.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,310
    rcs1000 said:

    OK.

    Well that's one new thing - the People I follow option - that Musk's Twitter has implemented that I like.
    He also sacked 90% of the staff and yet the site is fine, which is quite a managerial triumph

    OTOH renaming it “X” ranks as one of the stupidest commercial decisions of the decade
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    TimS said:

    Doing a Gulf War 1 style hook around the back of the front line would be audacious, but I doubt they have anywhere near the resources to be able to carry that one off.
    People have dreamed of deep strike cavalry raids, behind the lines, for centuries.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grierson's_Raid

    Most ended badly, but a few…

    They dreamed of this, particularly, in WWI - break the front and go for a run through open country …. http://www.landships.info/landships/tank_articles/musical_box.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,104
    HYUFD said:

    Trump has made clear he will leave abortion law to each state, he does not back a Federal abortion ban as some evangelicals want
    Leaving aside the minor detail that Trump's word is worth less than a DFE briefing paper, you may not have noticed but the rest of the Republican party including JD Vance does not seem to agree with him.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    Nigelb said:
    This is the image:


  • viewcode said:

    Community Notes predates Musk
    Sort of.

    There was a program that created Notes that predated Musk, but it wasn't very widespread nor was it open source - and it had a different name.

    The current version dates from Musk.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,588
    edited August 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, because I reckon this post deserves loads of likes. AND I would like a response from @HYUFD.

    Oh come on, @HYUFD: you must know that the exceptionally high cost of housing is a massive deterrent to having children early.

    One of my best friends, who I've known since fourth form, got married at 22, bought a house, and had kids early. He worked for the council.

    That would be completely impossible today.

    His children are not going to be able to afford houses - even assuming they save a significant proportion of their disposable income - until they are into their 30s.
    It is part of the answer but not the only one, as I said on the previous thread in the 1930s most 20-30 year olds rented and a few were unemployed in the depression but most had 2 or more children by 35.

    Yes we need more affordable homes to buy or rent but women continuing to prioritise graduate careers as their focus until their mid 30s-early 40s rather than marriage and children as well will continue to keep the fertility rate down
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    rcs1000 said:

    The number of third trimester abortions anywhere is absolutely tiny, and usually only happens when there are serious medical issues.
    The number of Democrat politicians signing laws allowing for elective third-trimester abortions, on the other hand, is significant.

    Including Tim Walz.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/minnesota-governor-signs-broad-abortion-rights-bill-law-rcna68513
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,104
    edited August 2024
    Sandpit said:

    The abortion bills can favour either party, depending on the exact wording of the question.

    Republicans are already going hard on the Dems who have supported third-trimester abortions, including a certain VP candidate.

    Polling on the subject almost everywhere in the US supports a more European approach, with a 12-20 week limit.
    In both cases the wording would amend the state constitution to guarantee access to abortion until 'fetal viability.'

    Which has proven extremely popular.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,588
    I doubt Jenrick's comments will harm him with the ERG and rightwing Tory MP lane he is looking to win to get to the last 2, it is Tugendhat and Stride contesting the liberal One Nation wing, with Cleverly also looking to join, not him
  • Sandpit said:

    The number of Democrat politicians signing laws allowing for elective third-trimester abortions, on the other hand, is significant.

    Including Tim Walz.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/minnesota-governor-signs-broad-abortion-rights-bill-law-rcna68513
    Walz signed a bill that says "the state’s existing protections remain in place no matter who sits on future courts."

    Existing protections already exist.

    Well done Walz.
  • Sandpit said:

    The abortion bills can favour either party, depending on the exact wording of the question.

    Republicans are already going hard on the Dems who have supported third-trimester abortions, including a certain VP candidate.

    Polling on the subject almost everywhere in the US supports a more European approach, with a 12-20 week limit.
    Yes and given the selection of Walz, it's clear it's the Democratic ticket that the extremist one on abortion.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,206

    No doubt certain UKIP/Reform types will see it as God's Wrath when the place regularly gets flooded....
    Nah, they're probably more likely to get off on the thought of them doing stuff.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt Jenrick's comments will harm him with the ERG and rightwing Tory MP lane he is looking to win to get to the last 2, it is Tugendhat and Stride contesting the liberal One Nation wing, with Cleverly also looking to join, not him

    I doubt Tom or Mel will make it to the last 2. One of them might make it to the last four.

    But I suspect that'll be:


    Badenoch
    Jenrick
    Cleverly
    Patel

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,104

    Yes and given the selection of Walz, it's clear it's the Democratic ticket that the extremist one on abortion.
    More extreme than Vance?

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/17/politics/kfile-jd-vance-abortion-comments/index.html
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,206
    A second Police Officer is under investigation over the melee in Manchester Airport.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8x03e6605o
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    In both cases the wording would amend the state constitution to guarantee access to abortion until 'fetal viability.'

    Which has proven extremely popular.
    The eventual result will be the de-politisisation of the issue in national politics, and more of an issue in State-level politics.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245
    HYUFD said:

    @PpollingNumbers
    #New General Election Poll

    🔴 Trump 49% (+5)
    🔵 Harris 44%

    Rasmussen #C - 1749 LV - 8/7
    @PpollingNumbers

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1821548407418200187

    @CNBC
    General Election Poll

    🔴 Trump 48% (+2)
    🔵 Harris 46%

    POS/Hart #B - 1001 RV - 8/4

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1821544979551916033

    #New General Election Poll - Wisconsin

    🔵 Harris 48% (+3)
    🔴 Trump 45%

    RMG #C - 800 RV - 8/5
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1821537198929289250

    Rasmussen living up to their reputation there...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    HYUFD said:

    Trump has made clear he will leave abortion law to each state, he does not back a Federal abortion ban as some evangelicals want
    He's also spoken very highly of Project 2025, which is pretty explicitly in favour of a nationwide abortion ban, and isn't too keen on contraceptives either.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969
    ...
    Mortimer said:

    I doubt Tom or Mel will make it to the last 2. One of them might make it to the last four.

    But I suspect that'll be:


    Badenoch
    Jenrick
    Cleverly
    Patel

    In the last Parliament that would have given us Cleverly plus one other for the grand final. I don't really know how the current PCP is made up. Are there any moderates left?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067

    Yes and given the selection of Walz, it's clear it's the Democratic ticket that the extremist one on abortion.
    Could you remind of how often anti-abortion ballot propositions have passed in the US?
  • ydoethur said:

    More extreme than Vance?

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/17/politics/kfile-jd-vance-abortion-comments/index.html
    Yes. He signed legislation dropping the requirements to record and notify babies born alive after abortion because of the numbers and impact of this hard fact.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245
    rcs1000 said:

    This is the image:


    For those wondering where all the copies of Fifty Shdes of Grey went when charity shops refused to take them...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,230
    Leon said:

    I believe I will

    Number 6 on the list of “things to do in Pristina” is a concrete sign saying “Newborn” in big letters

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g295385-d2343599-Reviews-Newborn_Monument-Pristina.html
    On a more serious note, if you want something serious to look into try illegal hunting of songbirds and their export to Italy for food.

    That's a big trade in that region, I believe.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    HYUFD said:

    Trump has made clear he will leave abortion law to each state, he does not back a Federal abortion ban as some evangelicals want
    Trump is what a typical New York social liberal would have been 20 years ago.

    The Bill Maher viewpoint, where he says that his opinions haven’t changed for decades, but those of his (Dem) party have changed significantly.
  • HYUFD said:

    It is part of the answer but not the only one, as I said on the previous thread in the 1930s most 20-30 year olds rented and a few were unemployed in the depression but most had 2 or more children by 35.

    Yes we need more affordable homes to buy or rent but women continuing to prioritise graduate careers as their focus until their mid 30s-early 40s rather than marriage and children as well will continue to keep the fertility rate down
    What has the 1930s got to do with modern Britain and re your last paragraph my daughter in law had her first child at 30 and her third child at 40 so she is hardly keeping fertility rates down
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,206
    MattW said:

    On a more serious note, if you want something serious to look into try illegal hunting of songbirds and their export to Italy for food.

    That's a big trade in that region, I believe.
    When I worked in London at a depot on the Underground I used to work with a bunch of Kosovans. Scary guys but if they warmed to you they were great company. Thankfully they seemed to like me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,588
    edited August 2024
    FPT FeersumEnjineeya said:
    » show previous quotes
    Looking at the stats for European countries, there seems to be a pretty close correlation between religious devotion and low birth rates. Countries with higher levels of church attendance (e.g. Italy, Spain, Greece) have lower birth rates than more secular countries (e.g. France, Denmark). So it would seem that less, rather than more, religion is needed in order to raise birth rates.


    Not true, Catholic Ireland for example has the highest birth rate in Europe and above average religious devotion. In France it is immigrant Muslims having the most babies, same with Denmark. In Italy and Spain it is over 60s most religious and they are well past child bearing years.

    The highest global birthrate in the world is in Africa which is also the most religious continent in the world
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969
    rcs1000 said:

    He's also spoken very highly of Project 2025, which is pretty explicitly in favour of a nationwide abortion ban, and isn't too keen on contraceptives either.
    Ahh, so your last point explains why he has acquired Boris Johnson's endorsement.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    Sandpit said:

    The eventual result will be the de-politisisation of the issue in national politics, and more of an issue in State-level politics.
    I believe abortion access should be decided at the State level, with the proviso - of course - that the Federal government has the right to regulate interstate commerce, which effectively means it gets the final say on whether people are able to buy mifepristone or not.

    However, Project 2025 - which Vance is a pretty big supporter of - is pretty explicit in how the Federal government can go about making abortion illegal nationwide.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,310
    This is grim. And I fear it is the future


    “Pray for S, one of the asylum seekers I worked with in Gateshead, beaten up by 2 men with iron bars last night.”

    https://x.com/meggilley1/status/1821455725656240585?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The riots have stopped but a lower level violence will now replace it. Smaller acts. Local “events”

    Bleak as bleh. I may actually move to lovely Pristina
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,588
    rcs1000 said:

    He's also spoken very highly of Project 2025, which is pretty explicitly in favour of a nationwide abortion ban, and isn't too keen on contraceptives either.
    'Three days later, Trump posted to Truth Social: “I know nothing about Project 2025.”

    “I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal,” he wrote.'

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/11/politics/trump-allies-project-2025/index.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,104
    FPT
    HYUFD said:

    Not true, Catholic Ireland for example has the highest birth rate in Europe and above average religious devotion. In France it is immigrant Muslims having the most babies, same with Denmark. In Italy and Spain it is over 60s most religious and they are well past child bearing years.

    Hyufd, this is bullshit. Romania has a higher birth rate than Ireland, as do Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and Iceland. (France is of course the highest.)

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Fertility_statistics

    Also, I'd hesitate before calling Ireland 'Catholic' now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,588
    Mortimer said:

    I doubt Tom or Mel will make it to the last 2. One of them might make it to the last four.

    But I suspect that'll be:


    Badenoch
    Jenrick
    Cleverly
    Patel

    I doubt it, there are enough One Nation liberal MPs to get Tom or Mel to the last 2 as they got Sunak, Hunt, May and Cameron beforehand. Especially given the Tory parliamentary party is more southern than in 2019
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,288
    rcs1000 said:

    Weirdly, Google Maps seems to deny the existence of Kosovo:



    There's a funny dotted line for the border with Serbia, and no "Kosovo" country named.

    It exists in my Google Maps. Try zooming in or out a bit. Google Maps is funny with names.
  • The real problem with Python and JavaScript is the large numbers of self taught people.

    Who haven’t heard of code structure, testing pyramids or even code versioning tools.

    “No, Quant Boy, the Python file you emailed me isn’t going directly into production. Aside from the fact it doesn’t actually run, we need tests. And test data. And some QA. and running on all the non-prod environments first…. Also, where is the specification? ‘cause Compliance will quite interested in how we are pricing stuff.”
    While I largely agree with what you say, it is also great to have the freedom to implement stuff as you see fit without having to specify every last widget to the n-th degree. Obviously that's easier when working iteratively as a sole developer on small projects.

    Also, bad code implemented by self-taught developers is by no means restricted to Python and JavaScript. The codebase at my last workplace was a tangled mess of undocumented C++ dating back decades and presided over by an old-school self-taught coder with a pathological hatred of whitespace and line breaks. That was the last straw for me.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245
    Sandpit said:

    The UA troops involved are presumably some of the best they have, who must know that they are on a suicide mission if they can’t extract themselves.

    But it does highlight that Russia can’t defend its own border, with their forces spread thinly to allow deployments further South.

    If this is a successful raid by UA troops, we might well see this as a regular occurrence. I can’t imagine that the UA army can actually hold any Russian territory for more than a few days, but they’ve shown they can do it and draw what’s likely to be a massive redeployment of Russian troops from more important (to UA) places.
    The folk looking at this escapade with greatest interest will be in Beijing.

    Everything east of the Urals is yours for the taking, guys...
  • ...

    In the last Parliament that would have given us Cleverly plus one other for the grand final. I don't really know how the current PCP is made up. Are there any moderates left?
    The choice to go to the members is from the 121 newly elected conservative mps and with a bit of luck they will have the sense to keep to the centre and ensure Jenrick and Patel are not sent to the members

    Tugendhat and Cleverly would give the party a chance of moving away from the toxic right-wing
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,104

    Yes. He signed legislation dropping the requirements to record and notify babies born alive after abortion because of the numbers and impact of this hard fact.
    He signed legislation, as @rcs1000 noted, that codified various bits of case law into statute to make sure the Supreme Court's inept attempts at judicial proceedings couldn't get rid of them.

    Whether you agree with abortion or not, that's hardly an unreasonable position to take.

    Meanwhile, agitation for a nationwide ban on abortion under any circumstances is not merely unreasonable and extreme, it's fucking ludicrous.

    Vance is an absolutist, never mind an extremist. Anyone suggesting Walz is more extreme than him on this issue is simply working from dogmatism.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866

    While I largely agree with what you say, it is also great to have the freedom to implement stuff as you see fit without having to specify every last widget to the n-th degree. Obviously that's easier when working iteratively as a sole developer on small projects.

    Also, bad code implemented by self-taught developers is by no means restricted to Python and JavaScript. The codebase at my last workplace was a tangled mess of undocumented C++ dating back decades and presided over by an old-school self-taught coder with a pathological hatred of whitespace and line breaks. That was the last straw for me.
    Indeed

    Just that these days the self taught types are hacking in Python.

    There was this mad guy who was going to replace Excel with a spreadsheet backed by Python as the scripting language. Whatever happened to him?
  • Leon said:

    This is grim. And I fear it is the future


    “Pray for S, one of the asylum seekers I worked with in Gateshead, beaten up by 2 men with iron bars last night.”

    https://x.com/meggilley1/status/1821455725656240585?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The riots have stopped but a lower level violence will now replace it. Smaller acts. Local “events”

    Bleak as bleh. I may actually move to lovely Pristina

    Horrible story and frightening
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067

    Yes. He signed legislation dropping the requirements to record and notify babies born alive after abortion because of the numbers and impact of this hard fact.
    It is, of course, worth remembering that the numbers here are tiny: in 2021 there were three cases of babies being born alive after failed abortions in Minnesota, and in 2020 there were none.

    For what it's worth, I would severely limit abortions after 20 weeks, and would maintain the reporting requirement. But I think there's a tendency to claim that late term abortions are commonplace when they simply aren't. And when they do happen, it's usually because of very serious fetal abnormalities.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The folk looking at this escapade with greatest interest will be in Beijing.

    Everything east of the Urals is yours for the taking, guys...
    Oh indeed, if the Russians can’t defend their border with Ukraine 100km North of the conflict zone, what chance they can defend 10,000km of border anywhere else?
This discussion has been closed.