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Will Trump dump J.D. Vance? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    Latest Opinion Poll

    LAB 33.7%
    CON 23.7%
    LD 12.2%
    REF 14.3%
    GRN 6.4%

    Fieldwork 4/7/24

    Sample Size 28.88 million

    BJO fans please explain Green Tory polling so low.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited July 2024
    HYUFD said:

    I don't see why a meeting with disabled people automatically needs you to give your pronouns out and say you are a woman as if there was some doubt about it?
    Giving a serious answer, imo it's more than being polite, and making such practises routine is more important than the detail of the practise, because the main issue is our cultural assumptions about other people, and failure to respect or listen to their desires.

    To draw a parallel, if I am in a meeting with a man called Gary, it is insulting if I spend the whole meeting addressing him as Helen. This is a similar question. If my child or my spouse wants me to use a particular version of their name to address them, I do that because I respect them and their personal agency/ autonomy.

    So imo it's about respect, and about institutionalising the equal treatment of all of us - so we can't forget to treat people equally and it is embedded in our practise. Our society still expects disabled people to be "the other" who we "help" (and expect them to be grateful); that is not equality. We need practises to undermine that kind of misapprehension; I'd say this is one such practise.

    Here, the practical side is that much of the information in meetings is non-verbal where visually impaired people (VIP) are disadvantaged, and we need to think about that - and make sure that we have the same information so all can participate.

    I think Harris got it about right - 15s per person is fine. A 3-minute soliloquy would be OTT. Personally I don't like declaring pronouns, and would describe myself and say "I'm happy with the pronouns you choose to use. I think it would have been preferable for her to add "middle-aged woman" rather than "woman", as that tells me useful information if I am a VIP.

    For me it's the same thinking as having premises accessible by default; inclusion is something that just needs to be *there* routinely, without needing special treatment.

    One way is for me to check what people find helpful is to ask some (and I mean 7-8 not 1-2) visually impaired people what they would find helpful, and accept their opinions have more weight than my own.

    There was a corker of an example of unconscious and unnecessary, humiliating exclusion at the
    Freedom of the City of London ceremony yesterday. I may crank out a short header on this based around this comment if @TSE will take it.

    For JD Vance & Co, the problem is that they are out of touch and seeking wedge issues that they can use to abuse and demonise. They are just punching themselves in the head, and kicking themselves in the groin. Like his lazy abuse of "single cat ladies".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    BJO fans please explain Green Tory polling so low.
    Go and cheer on Genocide along with your hero
  • Another classic headline. Implies the kids are back with mum and dad. They are not. Extended family seems to have gone missing from the headline.
    Quite a lot of detail in the article - they were already under a protective order to prevent the parents from taking them overseas. Social workers have the most hellish job.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,732
    HYUFD said:

    Morning Consult over almost the same timeframe

    Trump 47%
    Harris 45%

    https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/kamala-harris-biden-campaign-polling

    For the white working class Trump offers tariffs on imports while pushing US goods, cuts in immigration and anti wokeism.

    For the wealthy suburbanites he offers tax cuts, for Jews he offers to stand up for Israel, for evangelicals he enabled the end of Roe v Wade
    Tariffs on imports are taxes paid by consumers of those imports. You do get that don't you?

    Kamala's husband and step children are Jewish. It's not going to be easy to make out she is an anti-semite.

    Indeed there was another awesome Lawyer with a Jewish spouse that recently did very well in an election...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    ydoethur said:

    Not unhinged at all. No siree.

    Tell us, have you taken a position on electric boats with sharks in the vicinity?
    "You know, I have one simple request, and that is to have sharks with frickin' laser beams attached to their heads!"
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,261
    HYUFD said:

    House Speaker Mike Johnson speaking live now slams Kamala Harris' boycott of Netanyahu's speech:

    “It is outrageous to me and inexcusable that Kamala Harris is boycotting [Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech]. Kamala Harris will abandon her seat. She will not be there because she refuses to attend. She needs to be held accountable for that. The idea that [Democrats] are making political calculations when our ally is in such dire straits, fighting for its very survival... is unconscionable to us.”
    https://x.com/ShelleyGldschmt/status/1815757040658313475
    He’s annoyed because he knows it’s smart politics from Harris, whatever your view on the conflict.

    She has scope to triangulate. She isn’t the President. Biden makes the decisions. She can equivocate and hint (though likely not say outright) she’d do things differently.

    Early days, but I can see how this campaign can make up ground vs Trump.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    BBC News - Children returned to family after Leeds disorder
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyj41w72vn8o

    What a messy situation.

    Wow
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    Go and cheer on Genocide along with your hero
    You claim that Ukraine "can't win their war". Can Hamas win THEIR war?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    Political Polls
    @PpollingNumbers
    ·
    4m
    #New
    @maristpoll
    General Election Poll

    🔴 Trump 46% (+1)
    🔵 Harris 45%

    Marist A+ - 1117 RV - 7/22
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,389
    Foxy said:

    Tariffs on imports are taxes paid by consumers of those imports. You do get that don't you?

    Kamala's husband and step children are Jewish. It's not going to be easy to make out she is an anti-semite.

    Indeed there was another awesome Lawyer with a Jewish spouse that recently did very well in an election...
    Wait, Kamala Harris is a stepmom?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,039
    PB help request - has anyone else suddenly started receiving loads of phone calls from US numbers where when you answer you get some sort of recorded message about an “open table” booking etc? I answered the first two as I’m working with people who could call from US numbers at certain points on a couple of things but hoping these calls stop when they don’t get engaged with. Advice welcome. Thanks.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517
    edited July 2024

    Wow
    They were previously removed, and placed with an aunt, who gave them back to the parents. They have now been placed with an uncle. They have not been given back to the parents.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    Wait, Kamala Harris is a stepmom?
    BRACE!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,732

    BBC News - Children returned to family after Leeds disorder
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyj41w72vn8o

    What a messy situation.

    So those 4 children were all under court orders since April to stay with extended family, and last Thursday was because there was a fear of them being removed from the country.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    Carnyx said:

    Presumably HYUFD will allocate the DKs to Mr Trump now?
    Trump is ahead just when Kennedy is thrown into the mix.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480

    Political Polls
    @PpollingNumbers
    ·
    4m
    #New
    @maristpoll
    General Election Poll

    🔴 Trump 46% (+1)
    🔵 Harris 45%

    Marist A+ - 1117 RV - 7/22

    If it stays like that Trump not only becomes the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote since Bush in 2004 but likely clearly wins the popular vote too.

    Harris is not out of it by any means but needs a strong VP pick and a big convention bounce
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,732

    Wait, Kamala Harris is a stepmom?
    For sure...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    Cleverly announces he's running.

  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,948

    But convention bounces don't tend to last.
    That's certainly true of Trump's. One big deflation and Kamala's barely got going.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    Cleverly announces he's running.

    Who cleverly announced that?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    Foxy said:

    Tariffs on imports are taxes paid by consumers of those imports. You do get that don't you?

    Kamala's husband and step children are Jewish. It's not going to be easy to make out she is an anti-semite.

    Indeed there was another awesome Lawyer with a Jewish spouse that recently did very well in an election...
    Not if consumers buy more domestically produced goods instead, tariffs only hit consumers if they are on goods the domestic market can't produce or doesn't produce enough of
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    MattW said:

    Giving a serious answer, imo it's more than being polite, and making such practises routine is more important than the detail of the practise, because the main issue is our cultural assumptions about other people, and failure to respect or listen to their desires.

    To draw a parallel, if I am in a meeting with a man called Gary, it is insulting if I spend the whole meeting addressing him as Helen. This is a similar question. If my child or my spouse wants me to use a particular version of their name to address them, I do that because I respect them and their personal agency/ autonomy.

    So imo it's about respect, and about institutionalising the equal treatment of all of us - so we can't forget to treat people equally and it is embedded in our practise. Our society still expects disabled people to be "the other" who we "help" (and expect them to be grateful); that is not equality. We need practises to undermine that kind of misapprehension; I'd say this is one such practise.

    Here, the practical side is that much of the information in meetings is non-verbal where visually impaired people (VIP) are disadvantaged, and we need to think about that - and make sure that we have the same information so all can participate.

    I think Harris got it about right - 15s per person is fine. A 3-minute soliloquy would be OTT. Personally I don't like declaring pronouns, and would describe myself and say "I'm happy with the pronouns you choose to use. I think it would have been preferable for her to add "middle-aged woman" rather than "woman", as that tells me useful information if I am a VIP.

    For me it's the same thinking as having premises accessible by default; inclusion is something that just needs to be *there* routinely, without needing special treatment.

    One way is for me to check what people find helpful is to ask some (and I mean 7-8 not 1-2) visually impaired people what they would find helpful, and accept their opinions have more weight than my own.

    There was a corker of an example of unconscious and unnecessary, humiliating exclusion at the
    Freedom of the City of London ceremony yesterday. I may crank out a short header on this based around this comment if @TSE will take it.

    For JD Vance & Co, the problem is that they are out of touch and seeking wedge issues that they can use to abuse and demonise. They are just punching themselves in the head, and kicking themselves in the groin. Like his lazy abuse of "single cat ladies".
    Presumably HYUFD thinks it woke to have the little explanatory captions on every photograph in the Guardian's web page news. Or to have a sign language interpreter present when his MP is booked to meet the local Deaf* people's society.

    *Capital specific, as it denotes BSL users.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573
    HYUFD said:

    House Speaker Mike Johnson speaking live now slams Kamala Harris' boycott of Netanyahu's speech:

    “It is outrageous to me and inexcusable that Kamala Harris is boycotting [Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech]. Kamala Harris will abandon her seat. She will not be there because she refuses to attend. She needs to be held accountable for that. The idea that [Democrats] are making political calculations when our ally is in such dire straits, fighting for its very survival... is unconscionable to us.”
    https://x.com/ShelleyGldschmt/status/1815757040658313475

    Replace “Israel” with “Ukraine”…
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,847
    ...

    Labour would settle for that. I calculate that would give them 411 seats and a healthy majority of 172.
    After a recount today 404 seats and a modest majority of 158.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Foxy said:

    For sure...
    And an auntie. And great-aunt.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    edited July 2024
    Breaking Olympic News

    PB's Mr Ed speaks out

    https://x.com/JimmerUK/status/1815778658151190975
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    You claim that Ukraine "can't win their war". Can Hamas win THEIR war?
    The innocents slaughtered in Gaza can't thats for sure.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,732
    "Do you think J.D Vance is ready to serve as president if necessary?"

    No: 38%
    Yes: 29%

    Unsure: 33%

    YouGov / July 22, 2024 / n=1178

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1815841590927319297?t=7kIHWXBP5fAIFQPaYxGVFA&s=19
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    boulay said:

    PB help request - has anyone else suddenly started receiving loads of phone calls from US numbers where when you answer you get some sort of recorded message about an “open table” booking etc? I answered the first two as I’m working with people who could call from US numbers at certain points on a couple of things but hoping these calls stop when they don’t get engaged with. Advice welcome. Thanks.

    Google the phone number, and see if you find out anything.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002
    HYUFD said:

    Morning Consult over almost the same timeframe

    Trump 47%
    Harris 45%

    https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/kamala-harris-biden-campaign-polling

    For the white working class Trump offers tariffs on imports while pushing US goods, cuts in immigration and anti wokeism.

    For the wealthy suburbanites he offers tax cuts, for Jews he offers to stand up for Israel, for evangelicals he enabled the end of Roe v Wade
    For the white working class Trump offers tariffs on imports.
    Who pays the tariffs? The white working class.
    100% tariffs on Chinese imports are not paid by China. They are paid by Americans. Big uplift in cost of living as Kamala will eloquently explain.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    HYUFD said:

    If it stays like that Trump not only becomes the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote since Bush in 2004 but likely clearly wins the popular vote too.

    Harris is not out of it by any means but needs a strong VP pick and a big convention bounce
    I wouldn't pay attention to any opinion polls until at least the first week of august because people won't truly have made their mind up yet. I'll personally not pay them too much attention until a couple of weeks after the DNC has been through the system.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    He was Home Secretary more recently than Foreign Secretary, and both are Great Offices of State, is there anything to read into his introduction by the latter title? (It does mention he held the former role further down)

    Former Foreign Secretary James Cleverly has confirmed he is running to become the next Conservative Party leader.

    The Braintree MP, who is currently shadow home secretary, posted a video on social media announcing his candidacy on Tuesday evening.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv2g0z1gkzyo
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    The innocents slaughtered in Gaza can't thats for sure.
    But can Hamas win?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited July 2024
    spudgfsh said:

    I wouldn't pay attention to any opinion polls until at least the first week of august because people won't truly have made their mind up yet. I'll personally not pay them too much attention until a couple of weeks after the DNC has been through the system.
    We will see. Kennedy up to 7% in the multi candidate poll so clearly most of the Biden 2020 vote which has left the Democrats has gone to him given Trump is not doing any better than he did in 2020 and Harris is down on both Biden's 2020 and Hillary's 2016 voteshares
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Diane Abbott
    @HackneyAbbott
    ·
    44m
    Personal reasons meant I could not be in Westminster this evening to vote against the 2 child benefit cap. But horrified colleagues suspended for 6 months for voting against, when removing the cap is supposed to be party policy
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,748
    Barnesian said:

    For the white working class Trump offers tariffs on imports.
    Who pays the tariffs? The white working class.
    100% tariffs on Chinese imports are not paid by China. They are paid by Americans. Big uplift in cost of living as Kamala will eloquently explain.
    Whose jobs went to China, Mexico and Asia? The costs of globalisation have been borne by the west's WWC .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited July 2024
    Foxy said:

    "Do you think J.D Vance is ready to serve as president if necessary?"

    No: 38%
    Yes: 29%

    Unsure: 33%

    YouGov / July 22, 2024 / n=1178

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1815841590927319297?t=7kIHWXBP5fAIFQPaYxGVFA&s=19

    Suggests if Trump does win again Buttigieg may have a great chance v Vance in 2028
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    Barnesian said:

    For the white working class Trump offers tariffs on imports.
    Who pays the tariffs? The white working class.
    100% tariffs on Chinese imports are not paid by China. They are paid by Americans. Big uplift in cost of living as Kamala will eloquently explain.
    Not if those Chinese goods are replaced by consumers buying American made goods
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787

    "You know, I have one simple request, and that is to have sharks with frickin' laser beams attached to their heads!"
    I’ve got some mutated Sea Bass? They are slightly angry….
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    edited July 2024

    Diane Abbott
    @HackneyAbbott
    ·
    44m
    Personal reasons meant I could not be in Westminster this evening to vote against the 2 child benefit cap. But horrified colleagues suspended for 6 months for voting against, when removing the cap is supposed to be party policy

    I cannot find it at a glance in the manifesto, but in fairness it was a very vague document.

    If it was meant to be party policy then very very few of the MPs had any boldness to vote for it.

    The most Starmerish move would be for the suspended to talk themselves into an even longer suspension, after which he will declare it is the appropriate time to remove the cap.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    HYUFD said:

    Not if consumers buy more domestically produced goods instead, tariffs only hit consumers if they are on goods the domestic market can't produce or doesn't produce enough of
    Only if those domestically produced goods are as cheap as the imports were. In which case, why weren't people buying them beforehand?

    Everyone wants protectionism for the things that they sell, but they also want the freedom to buy things cheaper and better from abroad. And yes, that makes us all massive hypocrites. More news on that story when we get it.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    HYUFD said:

    We will see. Kennedy up to 7% in the multi candidate poll so clearly most of the Biden 2020 vote which has left the Democrats has gone to him given Trump is not doing any better than he did in 2020 and Harris is down on both Biden's 2020 and Hillary's 2016 voteshares
    Indeed, we will see.

    I'm not saying that Harris will improve massively in that time, there's as much chance that people will take a look at her and decide to vote trump. I just don't trust the polls at the moment. it's like opinion polling during party conferences, there's always a bump in support which doesn't last
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,732
    HYUFD said:

    Not if those Chinese goods are replaced by consumers buying American made goods
    Are you now in favour of tarrifs? Including US ones on British produced goods?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    But can Hamas win?
    Wouldnt have thought so but as SKS is not offering them £3Bn of taxpayers money a year like he is Zelensky you are as usual completely missing the point.

    Celebrate your Kid Starving victory
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,378
    HYUFD said:

    Not if consumers buy more domestically produced goods instead, tariffs only hit consumers if they are on goods the domestic market can't produce or doesn't produce enough of
    Tariffs are a wealth transfer from consumers to producers.

    Taxes on producers are a wealth transfer from producers to consumers.

    Subsidies to producers are a wealth transfer from consumers to producers.

    The main reason for tariffs on imports and subsidies to producers is for national security purposes.

    Secondary reasons can be social well being, environmental protection and workers rights.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited July 2024
    Carnyx said:

    Presumably HYUFD thinks it woke to have the little explanatory captions on every photograph in the Guardian's web page news. Or to have a sign language interpreter present when his MP is booked to meet the local Deaf* people's society.

    *Capital specific, as it denotes BSL users.
    That's a matter for @HYUFD , and I'm in a mode where I'm trying to elucidate. Captions (especially ALT text on social media) are another interesting one.

    There was actually an interesting one by the new MP for York Outer this week. He has introduced a series of "Chat with Charters" 'pop-up surgeries' announced 30 minutes in advance on social media.

    A fairly prominent (and publicly noisy) disabled activist called Flick Williams (who I agree with on most things, but not totally on bus stop bypasses and mobility tracks) pointed out that this excludes people who don't use social media or all digital devices, and can't do spontaneous journeys because the difficulties imposed by poor infra mean they have to plan hours in advance.

    It's a valid point, which Luke Charters explained by explaining that these were about 'meet and greet', and that there would be surgeries in accessible venues.

    That is a good exchange.

    https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/24465818.luke-charters-holds-chat-charters-event-haxby-bakehouse/
    https://x.com/flickhwilliams/status/1815742326238535901
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480

    Tariffs are a wealth transfer from consumers to producers.

    Taxes on producers are a wealth transfer from producers to consumers.

    Subsidies to producers are a wealth transfer from consumers to producers.

    The main reason for tariffs on imports and subsidies to producers is for national security purposes.

    Secondary reasons can be social well being, environmental protection and workers rights.
    Depends if they create demand for more domestic goods and better paid factory and manufacturing jobs
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    All three Commons Deputy Speakers are women. Nus Ghani (Con) is Chair of Ways and Means, and the other two are Judith Cummins (Lab) and Caroline Noakes (Con). Election was by STV.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited July 2024
    Foxy said:

    Are you now in favour of tarrifs? Including US ones on British produced goods?
    You could equally have British tariffs on US, EU and Chinese imports.

    I would say I am neither protectionist or pro free trade but pragmatic about it.

    If we produce a lot of a good or service or have done in the past then tariffs can make sense to protect those industries and jobs, if we have never done so then they don't and hit consumers more.

    Equally if we export more of a particular good or service than we use domestically then we don't want tariffs there either
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110

    Impressive. I missed it at the time, too busy learning how to crawl.
    Possibly a skill helpful to a long and successful marriage.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    JohnO said:

    All three Commons Deputy Speakers are women. Nus Ghani (Con) is Chair of Ways and Means, and the other two are Judith Cummins (Lab) and Caroline Noakes (Con). Election was by STV.

    If STV is good enough for Deputy Speakers, it ought to be good enough for electing MPs!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573
    kle4 said:

    He was Home Secretary more recently than Foreign Secretary, and both are Great Offices of State, is there anything to read into his introduction by the latter title? (It does mention he held the former role further down)

    Former Foreign Secretary James Cleverly has confirmed he is running to become the next Conservative Party leader.

    The Braintree MP, who is currently shadow home secretary, posted a video on social media announcing his candidacy on Tuesday evening.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv2g0z1gkzyo

    Important but non of it’s my fault, guv

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited July 2024
    JohnO said:

    All three Commons Deputy Speakers are women. Nus Ghani (Con) is Chair of Ways and Means, and the other two are Judith Cummins (Lab) and Caroline Noakes (Con). Election was by STV.

    A dastardly plot to reduce the numbers of backbenchers available for political activity in the main Opposition party :wink: .

    Related Q: Do Official Opposition Shadow Ministers get the same eligibility as other MPs to ask questions at PMQs? I had not thought about that.

    Since nearly all the Tories are in the Shadow Administration, it would change the question mix.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002

    Whose jobs went to China, Mexico and Asia? The costs of globalisation have been borne by the west's WWC .
    True. But it will take time for businesses to invest in the US to substitute for Chinese goods behind the tariff barrier. In the meantime inflation will shoot up as US consumers pay the tariff. Possibly good long term intentions. Short and medium term a political disaster.
    Much better to slowly crank up tariffs rather than impose an immediate 100% tariff on Chinese goods.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002
    HYUFD said:

    Not if those Chinese goods are replaced by consumers buying American made goods
    If they are immediately available. Think leadtimes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    Barnesian said:

    True. But it will take time for businesses to invest in the US to substitute for Chinese goods behind the tariff barrier. In the meantime inflation will shoot up as US consumers pay the tariff. Possibly good long term intentions. Short and medium term a political disaster.
    Much better to slowly crank up tariffs rather than impose an immediate 100% tariff on Chinese goods.
    Trump wants the Chinese to build factories in the US.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    HYUFD said:

    Not if those Chinese goods are replaced by consumers buying American made goods
    American made goods contain parts made outside the U.S. circuit boards the biggest part.
    Clothing made by american companies total less than 5% of the purchases in the U.S.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002

    Trump wants the Chinese to build factories in the US.
    Fair enough. But that takes time. In the meantime inflation soars.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    Wouldnt have thought so but as SKS is not offering them £3Bn of taxpayers money a year like he is Zelensky you are as usual completely missing the point.

    Celebrate your Kid Starving victory
    Sorry we handed Ukraine to Russia, here's money for jobless families from religious groups vital to the far left.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    MattW said:

    A dastardly plot to reduce the numbers of backbenchers available for political activity in the main Opposition party :wink: .

    Related Q: Do Official Opposition Shadow Ministers get the same eligibility as other MPs to ask questions at PMQs? I had not thought about that.

    Since nearly all the Tories are in the Shadow Administration, it would change the question mix.
    Guess is Shadow Cabinet members no (as that’s Rishi’s role) but all others can.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Foxy said:

    Are you now in favour of tarrifs? Including US ones on British produced goods?
    ?sppeling
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,039

    ?sppeling
    Like you can talk, Twedelde.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,261
    spudgfsh said:

    Indeed, we will see.

    I'm not saying that Harris will improve massively in that time, there's as much chance that people will take a look at her and decide to vote trump. I just don't trust the polls at the moment. it's like opinion polling during party conferences, there's always a bump in support which doesn't last
    We are seeing tremendous enthusiasm for Harris from the Democratic base but of course the test for her and her campaign it to keep that momentum going until November.

    At the moment I think she is seeing a burst of energy and optimism because people have genuinely been crying out for something different to the 2020 rematch. Whether she sustains that long term when she comes under scrutiny and the hard graft of the campaign, we shall see.

    It’s still on a knife edge, really.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    Barnesian said:

    Fair enough. But that takes time. In the meantime inflation soars.
    Of what? The US is not very reliant on imports.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    Nigelb said:


    Please stop saying seekyserv.
    It makes you sound like Russell Brand.

    Sassytempt
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,991

    Of what? The US is not very reliant on imports.
    You have clearly never been to Walmart.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    I just had the FOURTH GREATEST PICNIC OF MY LIFE

    Just walked out of this Aveyron village, loaded with saucisson, tomatoes, superb bread, a stupidly good wine from collioure (???), chocolate, raspberries, bayonne ham. Sat above an orchard overlooking the Tarn valley and the stone villages thereof. The light dimmed to faded sapphire then twinkling purple-black. We talked of life and death and whether it’s better to be a mule or a donkey, and we concocted a stupid poem about “jonquils”

    Walked home in the deepening darkness. Said Bon nuit to our landlord Pascal

    There are literally no foreign tourists here. It’s so amazingly quiet you can hear families laughing 2km across the valley. Nightingales
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002

    Of what? The US is not very reliant on imports.

    Of what? The US is not very reliant on imports.
    Imports are about 16% of US GDP.
  • Foxy said:

    So those 4 children were all under court orders since April to stay with extended family, and last Thursday was because there was a fear of them being removed from the country.

    "The court heard the children were all foreign nationals without settled status in the UK, and it could be difficult for them to return to Britain."

    Why are we trying to keep them in the country?, no doubt at taxpayers expense for welfare payments as well as all the agencies time.

    Not like they are going to North Korea. I thought Romania are esteemed allies who subscribe to all human rights nostrums as EU members, so let them go, send Romanian Embassy a report that they are going and tell them the Romanian Social Services might want to read it then close the case.

    Of course a lot of work and money for various professionals and lawyers at taxpayers expense if they are prevented from leaving.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002
    Leon said:

    I just had the FOURTH GREATEST PICNIC OF MY LIFE

    Just walked out of this Aveyron village, loaded with saucisson, tomatoes, superb bread, a stupidly good wine from collioure (???), chocolate, raspberries, bayonne ham. Sat above an orchard overlooking the Tarn valley and the stone villages thereof. The light dimmed to faded sapphire then twinkling purple-black. We talked of life and death and whether it’s better to be a mule or a donkey, and we concocted a stupid poem about “jonquils”

    Walked home in the deepening darkness. Said Bon nuit to our landlord Pascal

    There are literally no foreign tourists here. It’s so amazingly quiet you can hear families laughing 2km across the valley. Nightingales

    Who is we?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    Barnesian said:

    Imports are about 16% of US GDP.
    Yes, one of the least trade-dependent countries in the world.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    Leon said:

    Sassytempt
    ArtyInt
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    Barnesian said:

    Who is we?
    Me and my older daughter. 18 and awaiting her A level results. This holiday is designed to distract her - I promised her a roadtrip would be more fun, because you can decide in the morning where you’re going that day. Spontaneous fun

    So far so good! It’s been a hoot. Sadly ends this Friday when she flies home tho happily I then have another French assignment for the gazette
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002
    edited July 2024

    Well, one thing is for sure now. Kamala will bring far more energy and vibrancy to the Dem campaign than Biden had any hope of mustering even on one of his good days.

    The momentum is already with her.


    Chance of winning the presidency.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,261

    Well, one thing is for sure now. Kamala will bring far more energy and vibrancy to the Dem campaign than Biden had any hope of mustering even on one of his good days.

    Just watched the Harris speech.

    It’s doing nothing to contradict my view that I’ve had for some time that Vice President was not the right role for her.

    She is a world away from that awkward figure who sorta hid away and popped up at the odd event to spout stream of consciousness gobbledygook. She looks like she’s found her stride.

    She is never going to be the greatest orator, and don’t get me wrong there’s a lot of road ahead, but the contrast is really stark. Makes you wonder where this Kamala Harris has been hiding for 4 years.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274

    "The court heard the children were all foreign nationals without settled status in the UK, and it could be difficult for them to return to Britain."

    Why are we trying to keep them in the country?, no doubt at taxpayers expense for welfare payments as well as all the agencies time.

    Not like they are going to North Korea. I thought Romania are esteemed allies who subscribe to all human rights nostrums as EU members, so let them go, send Romanian Embassy a report that they are going and tell them the Romanian Social Services might want to read it then close the case.

    Of course a lot of work and money for various professionals and lawyers at taxpayers expense if they are prevented from leaving.
    So fucking done with this shit
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002
    Leon said:

    Me and my older daughter. 18 and awaiting her A level results. This holiday is designed to distract her - I promised her a roadtrip would be more fun, because you can decide in the morning where you’re going that day. Spontaneous fun

    So far so good! It’s been a hoot. Sadly ends this Friday when she flies home tho happily I then have another French assignment for the gazette
    That's lovely. :)
  • Leon said:

    I just had the FOURTH GREATEST PICNIC OF MY LIFE

    Just walked out of this Aveyron village, loaded with saucisson, tomatoes, superb bread, a stupidly good wine from collioure (???), chocolate, raspberries, bayonne ham. Sat above an orchard overlooking the Tarn valley and the stone villages thereof. The light dimmed to faded sapphire then twinkling purple-black. We talked of life and death and whether it’s better to be a mule or a donkey, and we concocted a stupid poem about “jonquils”

    Walked home in the deepening darkness. Said Bon nuit to our landlord Pascal

    There are literally no foreign tourists here. It’s so amazingly quiet you can hear families laughing 2km across the valley. Nightingales

    Have you ever thought of keeping a diary? Then not publishing it in any form?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    Leon said:

    So fucking done with this shit
    France under Sarkozy deported thousands of people to Romania and told the Commission where to go when they criticised them for it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242

    We are seeing tremendous enthusiasm for Harris from the Democratic base but of course the test for her and her campaign it to keep that momentum going until November.

    At the moment I think she is seeing a burst of energy and optimism because people have genuinely been crying out for something different to the 2020 rematch. Whether she sustains that long term when she comes under scrutiny and the hard graft of the campaign, we shall see.

    It’s still on a knife edge, really.
    Knife edge is better than they were looking in the last few weeks. Hopefully they can get some momentum.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274

    Have you ever thought of keeping a diary? Then not publishing it in any form?
    I hear you. That’s why I restrict myself to commentary on here and being paid to travel for free to really nice places which I then describe. It’s dark and lonely work but, well, you know
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110
    If anyone needs an insight into why many African Americans are oh so very angry, BBC4 are showing the Storyville on the Attica jail riot. Unusually hardly any nuance in the shittiness of the behaviour of the authorities. Bleak and depressing if you can cope with it.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573
    Barnesian said:

    Imports are about 16% of US GDP.
    How many of them go via Dover?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573

    "The court heard the children were all foreign nationals without settled status in the UK, and it could be difficult for them to return to Britain."

    Why are we trying to keep them in the country?, no doubt at taxpayers expense for welfare payments as well as all the agencies time.

    Not like they are going to North Korea. I thought Romania are esteemed allies who subscribe to all human rights nostrums as EU members, so let them go, send Romanian Embassy a report that they are going and tell them the Romanian Social Services might want to read it then close the case.

    Of course a lot of work and money for various professionals and lawyers at
    taxpayers expense if they are prevented from leaving.
    Because - and I don’t know the facts of this case - they are vulnerable children at risk.

    There is a moral duty to intervene to protect them
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Leon said:

    I hear you. That’s why I restrict myself to commentary on here and being paid to travel for free to really nice places which I then describe. It’s dark and lonely work but, well, you know
    Like cunnilingus. Someone has to do it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    Leon said:

    I just had the FOURTH GREATEST PICNIC OF MY LIFE

    Just walked out of this Aveyron village, loaded with saucisson, tomatoes, superb bread, a stupidly good wine from collioure (???), chocolate, raspberries, bayonne ham. Sat above an orchard overlooking the Tarn valley and the stone villages thereof. The light dimmed to faded sapphire then twinkling purple-black. We talked of life and death and whether it’s better to be a mule or a donkey, and we concocted a stupid poem about “jonquils”

    Walked home in the deepening darkness. Said Bon nuit to our landlord Pascal

    There are literally no foreign tourists here. It’s so amazingly quiet you can hear families laughing 2km across the valley. Nightingales

    Are you going to Albi? Lovely town further down the Tarn.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    edited July 2024

    Because - and I don’t know the facts of this case - they are vulnerable children at risk.

    There is a moral duty to intervene to protect them
    The UK government also has a moral duty to not impoverish the citizens of the UK by pointlessly and expensively trying to better the lives of everyone in the world; and also to not destroy the urban culture and trust of UK society by importing seven billion people a year, many of them openly contemptuous of our values

    I fear these other duties have been forgotten to such an extent the UK is now beyond saving - for its own citizens
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Just watched the Harris speech.

    It’s doing nothing to contradict my view that I’ve had for some time that Vice President was not the right role for her.

    She is a world away from that awkward figure who sorta hid away and popped up at the odd event to spout stream of consciousness gobbledygook. She looks like she’s found her stride.

    She is never going to be the greatest orator, and don’t get me wrong there’s a lot of road ahead, but the contrast is really stark. Makes you wonder where this Kamala Harris has been hiding for 4 years.


    I'm getting a real "Everyone suddenly burst out singing" vibe which I have never had from politics before. Sort of thing the dimmer lefties apparently got from the smarmy murderous Blairfest of 1997.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274

    Are you going to Albi? Lovely town further down the Tarn.
    I went last year. Indeed rather nice

    I’m moving on to another part of “lost France” once I have safely decanted my older daughter back to Blighty
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,410

    I'm getting a real "Everyone suddenly burst out singing" vibe which I have never had from politics before. Sort of thing the dimmer lefties apparently got from the smarmy murderous Blairfest of 1997.
    Some of the tumescent (quite literally in some cases) posts about Kamala Harris on PB today are best read on an empty stomach.

    I have nothing against the lady, she seems quite nice. But let's rein it in just a tad.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    edited July 2024
    "Owen Jones
    @OwenJones84

    Given Labour

    - only won a third of the vote
    - with the lowest turnout in democratic history
    - lost support to Greens and independents even before power

    I didn’t think they’d be stupid enough to purge MPs over child poverty.

    Well, good! Show everyone who you are. Suits me!"

    https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1815852474047111350
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,847

    Trump wants the Chinese to build factories in the US.
    SAIC bought the ashes of MG Rover after the Phoenix Four asset stripped the company bare. SAIC inherited Longbridge claiming the Kremlin building and surrounding factory units would be the UK head office for MG, it would be the design centre for MG worlwide and it would be a final assembly point for some MG cars.

    Longbridge is now abandoned and the Head Office of MG Motor UK is now an office in Mayfair. Everything else is now in Shanghai.

    A Trojan Horse for Trump to ride into the Rust Belt.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,410
    edited July 2024
    Nigel Farage's maiden speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clbXZP7JM8g
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Leon said:

    The UK government also has a moral duty to not impoverish the citizens of the UK by pointlessly and expensively trying to better the lives of everyone in the world; and also to not destroy the urban culture and trust of UK society by importing seven billion people a year, many of them openly contemptuous of our values

    I fear these other duties have been forgotten to such an extent the UK is now beyond saving - for its own citizens
    Don't be silly. You really, really can judge a society by how it treats its prisoners and a fortiori by what lengths it goes to to prevent the abuse, torture, murder etc of its children (and these children are as much citizens as anyone else is)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274

    Some of the tumescent (quite literally in some cases) posts about Kamala Harris on PB today are best read on an empty stomach.

    I have nothing against the lady, she seems quite nice. But let's rein it in just a tad.
    It is the Kamalagasm. And it’s as awks as anyone climaxing in public

    However, in this case it can be forgiven. Whatever your opinions, the prospect of Trump v Biden 2.0 was fucking dismal as shit. So I share some of the ebullient relief

    I still deeply dislike both parties. The Dems for their Wokeness, Trump because he’s Trump. But I sense Woke is in retreat and Trump is still an evil old fuck? Who knows…

    I’d like a sane hard right but NATO-friendly GOP candidate. That’s not on offer. The offer is Trump

    Eesh. I’d reluctantly vote for Kamala
This discussion has been closed.