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Some more election stats – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited July 5

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is interesting. He has made a big deal of rehabilitating ex-cons through his cobbler shop business. Didn't he used to donate to the Tories?

    And Vallance*? Wow!

    * Not Holly!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    Well indeed. Exactly my point. Of course that analytical political genius known as @Leon would like the Tories to cosy up to them and doesn't agree. The Tories need to hit them hard, but they need an articulate leader who has the balls to do it. Not sure who that would be.
    Rishi shortly resigns as an MP.

    Penny Mordaunt gets the call for the by-election. Which she wins comfortably. And then the Party leadership.

    You heard it here first.
    Why do you expect Sunak to stand down? He's young, he wasn't PM for that long, he should stick around. I don't get the obsession with Mordaunt. She stood for the leadership before and made little impression.
    She was one of very few who might have had enough about them to be PM. The Tory party has many more options, even with radically fewer MPs, as to who could be LOTO.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,980
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Smart disciplined strategy leading to a staggeringly efficient vote.
    Not especially.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 433
    Pulpstar said:

    I see Andrew Bridgen got 3.2% in NW Leics

    Similar story for many of these characters who got kicked out/turned on the party and ran as Indys.

    Claudia Webber and Keith Vaz both got decent hauls
    Good point.

    That Leics East result is mad!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leicester_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • TresTres Posts: 2,685

    Sean_F said:

    “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot trampling a human face. Forever.”

    That is fascism.

    Fascism is just a word Lefties like to throw around about their opponents to socially proof themselves to each other.
    Yes basically a modern version of shouting "BLASPHEMER!"
    lol, the woke finders general now crying about a label.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Great result for Labour in Na h-Eileanan an Iar.

    Complete SNP Implosion.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na_h-Eileanan_an_Iar_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Still taking the piss, I see, with their absurdly small number of constituents. Gotta love the Western Isles!

    2024 really is the death of Scottish independence, for a generation. Thankfully
    Swinney was back on it in about 10 minutes.
    Indeed, but doing it from a poosition of abject weakness, not strength like Salmond or Sturgeon. It was like a corpse still showing muscle spasms, as the muscle-fibres contract

    I've no doubt a lot of Scotch people still dream of indy, and will continue to do so - and fair enough, it's a perfectly feasible aspiration - but as a paractical possibiltiy it's out the window til 2040 I reckon
    They really need to lose in 2026, go into opposition, and start re-thinking and rebuilding.
    Nicola's "progressive alliance for indy" has run into the sand. They need another model which is more credible and realistic. Forbes seemed an answer but she's already in a leadership position, is divisive in the party, so won't really do to lead them into another referendum. At best, the political generation after this one. So yes, 2040 at the earliest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,418
    edited July 5

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is interesting. He has made a big deal of rehabilitating ex-cons through his cobbler shop business. Didn't he used to donate to the Tories?

    And Vallence? Wow!
    Obvious the brother was a Tory MP. But I don't think they are super ideological family in that respect as in died in the wool insert political party. They are good people and have done a lot of good.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,577

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    And the Tory Boys only got 23.7% of the vote!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    edited July 5

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    Well indeed. Exactly my point. Of course that analytical political genius known as @Leon would like the Tories to cosy up to them and doesn't agree. The Tories need to hit them hard, but they need an articulate leader who has the balls to do it. Not sure who that would be.
    Rishi shortly resigns as an MP.

    Penny Mordaunt gets the call for the by-election. Which she wins comfortably. And then the Party leadership.

    You heard it here first.
    Why do you expect Sunak to stand down? He's young, he wasn't PM for that long, he should stick around. I don't get the obsession with Mordaunt. She stood for the leadership before and made little impression.
    "made little impression"? She was a couple of MPs changing their mind from going to the members with Rishi.

    How many of those 113 MPs voting for Truss would now hop in the Tardis to change their vote? In treble figures is my estimate.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    And the Tory Boys only got 23.7% of the vote!
    That’s very sexist Sunil, lots of Tory women also worked hard for that vote share.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 433
    edited July 5

    Pulpstar said:

    I see Andrew Bridgen got 3.2% in NW Leics

    Similar story for many of these characters who got kicked out/turned on the party and ran as Indys.

    Claudia Webber and Keith Vaz both got decent hauls
    Good point.

    That Leics East result is mad!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leicester_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    I think we should refer to Shivani Raja as "The Unlikely Member of Parliament for Leicester East"
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is an excellent choice for job. I'd assumed he was a Tory, though, like his brother...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    edited July 5

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is interesting. He has made a big deal of rehabilitating ex-cons through his cobbler shop business. Didn't he used to donate to the Tories?

    And Vallance*? Wow!

    * Not Holly!
    Vallance was a clever chap and it will be interesting to see what he can do in that position. Timpson is interesting too.

    I welcome the general idea of bringing people who actually know their field into government. Webb, for example, was one of the best Ministers in the Coalition*.

    * I appreciate he was actually an MP at the time but he was also an expert.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473

    Pulpstar said:

    I see Andrew Bridgen got 3.2% in NW Leics

    Similar story for many of these characters who got kicked out/turned on the party and ran as Indys.

    Claudia Webber and Keith Vaz both got decent hauls
    Good point.

    That Leics East result is mad!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leicester_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    Yes, the Tory won despite a swing against them, albeit smaller than the national average.

    The Labour Party in Leicester is seriously dysfunctional, and we have seen that manifest in a number of ways.

    Ultimately it is rather like the problem of Welsh Labour. A one party state rots from the inside.

    PR via STV would greatly improve local democracy in my view.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962
    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,577
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    And the Tory Boys only got 23.7% of the vote!
    That’s very sexist Sunil, lots of Tory women also worked hard for that vote share.
    Oh, alright then: Tory Boys AND Girls!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,418

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is interesting. He has made a big deal of rehabilitating ex-cons through his cobbler shop business. Didn't he used to donate to the Tories?

    And Vallance*? Wow!

    * Not Holly!
    If they are getting the old COVID gang back together, they need to get JVT back on board....only because I want to see him go on Peston a regular basis and duff up the fake Prof.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    edited July 5
    Interesting video about the possible implications of the Supreme Court's immunity decision.

    The Legal Breakdown. ~10 minutes.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQcS6ilr26Y

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,418
    edited July 5
    What Labour are missing now is somebody from business sector to add to that area. I know Timpson runs a successful business, but he has been brought in for prison / rehab, which I think is a great move.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    One interesting snippet from North Britain is that I believe the turnout at this GE is lower than the previous one for Holyrood by some way, the first time this has happened I think. No idea what two years of change with Starmer will mean for 2026 and voter engagement, but certainly a greater possibility of Bettertogether II cobbling together some sort governing arrangement than there was yesterday.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    I see Lab managed to get less votes than in 2019. That wwould have been available at some enormous price a few weeks ago

    It certainly would. Also the big 2 share of the vote at 58.5% must be the lowest for many years, perhaps ever. You could have got a great price on that as well. It was 82% as recently as 2017
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Leon said:


    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    No he won't. The people who voted Tory this time around are the core Tory voters, they aren't going to vote for Nige whatever the weather. The danger for the Tories right now is that they go down the copy Reform playbook and push away the people who stuck around. The way to increase the number of voters is to take a few select policies from Reform (I like the higher payroll tax rate for immigrant employees and maybe a manifesto commitment to reform the ECHR or leave if there's no reform) and push into winning back seats from the Lib Dems and Labour.
    I’m basically agreeing with you!

    But I don’t think Hunt is the man. He’s too spineless and lame and too tarnished
    I quite fancy Geoffrey Cox. He would show SKS at pmqs what forensic really looks like, if nothing else
    You just have to be kidding , the buffoon of buffoons
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    edited July 5
    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,418
    edited July 5
    DavidL said:

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is interesting. He has made a big deal of rehabilitating ex-cons through his cobbler shop business. Didn't he used to donate to the Tories?

    And Vallance*? Wow!

    * Not Holly!
    Vallance was a clever chap and it will be interesting to see what he can do in that position. Timpson is interesting too.

    I welcome the general idea of bringing people who actually know their field into government. Webb, for example, was one of the best Ministers in the Coalition*.

    * I appreciate he was actually an MP at the time but he was also an expert.
    I know he has some big ideas about how the public sector collection of and use of data needs massive change so both science but better public policy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    Jonathan said:

    pigeon said:

    Jonathan said:

    So, do we all join the Tory party now to vote for leader. Someone has to save them from Badenoch and Braverman.

    They're beyond being saved. If they're going to have their little adventure into the loony right then they need to be left to do it and suffer the consequences.

    The Tory membership needs time and space to work through their butt hurt, and to come to the realisation that this defeat isn't all the product of failing to be sufficiently right wing.
    It might be fun to rebuild a one nation Tory party and defeat the populists and nutters.
    Step forward Alicia Kearns...

    Though I think more likely the leader after next.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,575
    AlsoLei said:

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is an excellent choice for job. I'd assumed he was a Tory, though, like his brother...
    He helps people less fortunate than himself, so I don't see how he could be a fit in today's Tory party.

    (I'm JOKING! -ish)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,707
    I hadn't realised that Keir Starmer's vote share in his own constituency halved since 2019. That's quite something. Could he even be vulnerable next time?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,577

    Sean_F said:

    “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot trampling a human face. Forever.”

    That is fascism.

    Fascism is just a word Lefties like to throw around about their opponents to socially proof themselves to each other.
    Mussolini had a pretty good idea of what Fascism is.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Are you not a fan of FPTP Casino?
    This triumphalism is a bit icky. The last labour landslide led to the country being complicit in the murder of at least hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians, which was unaccountably fine with the sort of twat who mightily battled apartheid by not eating Cape oranges. Wrong sort of non white person, I suppose. And led to people still being in prison today on indefinite sentences for crimes worth 5 years max because of the insane undemocratic populism of good old Tony's government. I'm sure there's every hope this lot will be an improvement, but Yay! 1997 again! really doesn't sound too good.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,633
    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited July 5

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    Well indeed. Exactly my point. Of course that analytical political genius known as @Leon would like the Tories to cosy up to them and doesn't agree. The Tories need to hit them hard, but they need an articulate leader who has the balls to do it. Not sure who that would be.
    Rishi shortly resigns as an MP.

    Penny Mordaunt gets the call for the by-election. Which she wins comfortably. And then the Party leadership.

    You heard it here first.
    Why do you expect Sunak to stand down? He's young, he wasn't PM for that long, he should stick around. I don't get the obsession with Mordaunt. She stood for the leadership before and made little impression.
    "made little impression"? She was a couple of MPs changing their mind from going to the members with Rishi.

    How many of those 113 MPs voting for Truss would now hop in the Tardis to change their vote? In treble figures is my estimate.
    When my son was living in Fratton (Portsmouth South- not North) he knew people who knew Mordaunt and I met her in Ye Olde Spotted Dogge inn, she seemed very clubable but her reputation was for laziness and being something of a carpetbagger. Her laziness was amply demonstrated by her very poor "fight, fight, fight" speech at last year's conference Tugenhadt ticks lots of boxes.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Sean_F said:

    “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot trampling a human face. Forever.”

    That is fascism.

    Sean_F said:

    “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot trampling a human face. Forever.”

    That is fascism.

    Sean_F said:

    “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot trampling a human face. Forever.”

    That is fascism.

    That's overrated poshbois playing at satire. How much of a human face is actually left after 5 minutes of trampling, never mind forever?

    The last Old Etonian who was markedly more use than a marzipan dildo was
    Wellington and even he went down hill when he went into politics.
    Gladstone was a good egg. As was Rosebery.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,577

    I hadn't realised that Keir Starmer's vote share in his own constituency halved since 2019. That's quite something. Could he even be vulnerable next time?

    Only because of the independent Feinstein.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,575

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Are you not a fan of FPTP Casino?
    This triumphalism is a bit icky. The last labour landslide led to the country being complicit in the murder of at least hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians, which was unaccountably fine with the sort of twat who mightily battled apartheid by not eating Cape oranges. Wrong sort of non white person, I suppose. And led to people still being in prison today on indefinite sentences for crimes worth 5 years max because of the insane undemocratic populism of good old Tony's government. I'm sure there's every hope this lot will be an improvement, but Yay! 1997 again! really doesn't sound too good.
    Oh dear, it's going to be a long five years for you, isn't it?

    2024 ≠ 1997
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Hes not an MP or Lord is he?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    Touch any part of pensions (relief to 20% or the annual allowance) and a lot of people will be retiring rather rapidly.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited July 5

    I hadn't realised that Keir Starmer's vote share in his own constituency halved since 2019. That's quite something. Could he even be vulnerable next time?

    Wasn't it was one of the Gazan Popular Fronters?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Jonathan said:

    So, do we all join the Tory party now to vote for leader. Someone has to save them from Badenoch and Braverman.

    You won't get to vote, have to have been a member for three months before the leadership election is called.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488

    Hard to believe that with all the lawyers in Starmer's new parliamentary forces, he chose to appoint an Attorney General from outside Parliament by making Richard Hermer a Lord.

    Emily Thornberry will not be happy.

    From Matrix Chambers - wasn't that Cherie "Crystal Healing" Blair's lot?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415

    I hadn't realised that Keir Starmer's vote share in his own constituency halved since 2019. That's quite something. Could he even be vulnerable next time?

    It only dropped by 17.4% - most of that went to the Independent (Andrew Feinstein), and the salient factors there (Corbynism and Gaza) probably won't be in play next time round.

    The Greens were up 6%, likely for similar reasons, but the Tory and LD vote was squeezed dropping by 8% and 6.5% respectively. You'd expect that trend to continue next time, so he should be pretty secure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,389
    New Statesman mag, which arrived early yesterday, has piece about Bristol Central and Green fight for Labour seat.

    Concludes it will be v close - a few hundred votes either way.

    Green Carla has a 10K majority today.

    Life comes fast sometimes...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    Dividends are already taxed at the same rate once you take into account corporation tax.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,502

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    Well indeed. Exactly my point. Of course that analytical political genius known as @Leon would like the Tories to cosy up to them and doesn't agree. The Tories need to hit them hard, but they need an articulate leader who has the balls to do it. Not sure who that would be.
    Rishi shortly resigns as an MP.

    Penny Mordaunt gets the call for the by-election. Which she wins comfortably. And then the Party leadership.

    You heard it here first.
    Why do you expect Sunak to stand down? He's young, he wasn't PM for that long, he should stick around. I don't get the obsession with Mordaunt. She stood for the leadership before and made little impression.
    He promised not to stand down for the full Parliament, which surprised me.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,825

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    5 MPs from 4m votes. It is quite absurd

    However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time

    4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government

    HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen

    But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand

    If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
    Reform are pathetic nobodies, not the future.

    Contrast Reform yesterday with UKIP 2015. They gained 230k extra votes, not millions of extra votes, and 4 extra MPs.
    5 not 4. And the first time any new party (not in a formal electoral pact with an existing party) has broken through and done that since Kier Hardy and a Colleague did it with Labour in the 1900 election.

    Not to mention getting 3rd place in the popular vote by a half million margin with almost half as many votes as the winning party and two thirds of the votes of the second placed party.

    It is an astonishing achievement under first past the post and you difmiss it at your peril.
    "5 not 4" [extra MPs]

    Really? What's the difference between 5 (2024) and 1 (2019)?

    Getting 230k extra votes than UKIP got in 2015, at a time that the Tories are extremely unpopular, is not an "astonishing achievement."
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317
    It will be interesting to see what lessons are taken from the "Reform" situation.

    Option 1 - The right lesson - Labour start to deal with some of the issues they are concerned about in power, the conservative party pick up other areas, they are respected in Parliament and their ideas are scrutinised in debates. Calling them 'fascist' or 'racist' is not done.

    Option 2 - The wrong lesson - they are frozen out AFD style, laws are passed to try and outlaw them and their ideas, with a view to totally completely deplatforming them and removing them from ordinary political discourse.

    Option 1 would, in my view, lead to their marginalisation as a sub 10% party vulnerable to splitting, obscurity and irrelevance. Option 2 would probably just lead to their continued rise and the radicalisation of its followers to such a point where it becomes a major player in the next election.




  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Leon said:

    Far from being a Fascist, Farage is just a classic old school rightwing Tory, with a populist streak, a libertarian bent, and a fair bit of charisma

    It's just that almost everyone to the left of this has the analytical skills of a toddler (cf @Nigel_Foremain and @BartholomewRoberts, and a toddler possessed of a one word vocabulary: FASCIST!!!!

    I agree fascist isn't a useful term for Farage. It implies people that beat up random strangers on the street. Farage isn't that.

    I would describe him as a virus. Farage spreads poison and mutates so he works his way into his victims more effectively.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412
    edited July 5

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Are you not a fan of FPTP Casino?
    This triumphalism is a bit icky. The last labour landslide led to the country being complicit in the murder of at least hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians, which was unaccountably fine with the sort of twat who mightily battled apartheid by not eating Cape oranges. Wrong sort of non white person, I suppose. And led to people still being in prison today on indefinite sentences for crimes worth 5 years max because of the insane undemocratic populism of good old Tony's government. I'm sure there's every hope this lot will be an improvement, but Yay! 1997 again! really doesn't sound too good.
    Now, now, don’t be mean to Benpointer. He was honest enough to post that he would be happy to pay more tax under Starmer. I am certain that we won’t hear a peep from him when those extra taxes aren’t just taking what he gave in charitable contributions and become meaningful amounts and levied on wealth and assets he thought wouldn’t t be caught up in tax rises, after all its others who will pay in this glorious starmerite new world.

    So allow him his gloat. He will gracefully not utter a word of complaint when the realities of a Labour gov aren’t what he thought and that all give are crap because they aren’t bespoke service providers for each and every person”s needs and desires.

    I predict Casino will have the last laugh.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    What Labour are missing now is somebody from business sector to add to that area. I know Timpson runs a successful business, but he has been brought in for prison / rehab, which I think is a great move.

    Dragons Deborah Meaden or Gary Neville?

    I am taking the p***, but Neville has quite an interest in social housing policy.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488

    Pulpstar said:

    I see Andrew Bridgen got 3.2% in NW Leics

    Similar story for many of these characters who got kicked out/turned on the party and ran as Indys.

    Claudia Webber and Keith Vaz both got decent hauls
    Good point.

    That Leics East result is mad!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leicester_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    Adorable and rather typical of the Greens to field the only white candidate out of ten in a majority ethnic minority seat.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    edited July 5
    ..
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,797
    DavidL said:

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is interesting. He has made a big deal of rehabilitating ex-cons through his cobbler shop business. Didn't he used to donate to the Tories?

    And Vallance*? Wow!

    * Not Holly!
    Vallance was a clever chap and it will be interesting to see what he can do in that position. Timpson is interesting too.

    I welcome the general idea of bringing people who actually know their field into government. Webb, for example, was one of the best Ministers in the Coalition*.

    * I appreciate he was actually an MP at the time but he was also an expert.
    It’s certainly a contrast with we’ve had enough of experts
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,825
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    5 MPs from 4m votes. It is quite absurd

    However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time

    4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government

    HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen

    But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand

    If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
    Reform are pathetic nobodies, not the future.

    Contrast Reform yesterday with UKIP 2015. They gained 230k extra votes, not millions of extra votes, and 4 extra MPs.
    Where to even begin with this level of idiocy?

    UKIP's good showing in 2015 proved that Farage is a brilliant campaigner with a one issue party - and with that 2015 vote, by the way, he terrified the Tories into offering the referendum the following year and then Farage went and won it. Thus, Brexit (which you voted for). Without Farage, no Brexit. That makes him potentially the most significant British politician of the 21st century (and maybe the best?)

    He's now done it again, but - even more impressively - without that single burning issue but with a proper party with a range of poliicies. You may think the policies are insane but then Ed Davey just got 70 seats by lighting his bottom on fire

    Fools like you will continue to underestimate Farage; he surely gains from that
    UKIP getting votes in May 2015 had absolutely nothing to do with Cameron pledging to hold an in/out referendum in January 2013.

    Cameron pledged the in/out referendum following close to a hundred of his own MPs rebelling on the Queen's Speech, following decades of the European issue plaguing the Tories, not because of Farage.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    From a comment on LDV:

    We are very much alive however we actually have been almost completely killed off in labour facing areas; the Greens have now overtaken us to become the main opposition to labour in many places including former lib dem seats like Manchester withington and Hornsey and Frien Barnet.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is interesting. He has made a big deal of rehabilitating ex-cons through his cobbler shop business. Didn't he used to donate to the Tories?

    And Vallance*? Wow!

    * Not Holly!
    If they are getting the old COVID gang back together, they need to get JVT back on board....only because I want to see him go on Peston a regular basis and duff up the fake Prof.
    A bit like the Blues Brothers?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412

    Sean_F said:

    “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot trampling a human face. Forever.”

    That is fascism.

    Sean_F said:

    “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot trampling a human face. Forever.”

    That is fascism.

    Sean_F said:

    “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot trampling a human face. Forever.”

    That is fascism.

    That's overrated poshbois playing at satire. How much of a human face is actually left after 5 minutes of trampling, never mind forever?

    The last Old Etonian who was markedly more use than a marzipan dildo was
    Wellington and even he went down hill when he went into politics.
    Gladstone was a good egg. As was Rosebery.
    Gladstone would have been cancelled for his “ministering to fallen women”. Dirty old perv.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,707

    I hadn't realised that Keir Starmer's vote share in his own constituency halved since 2019. That's quite something. Could he even be vulnerable next time?

    Only because of the independent Feinstein.
    I don't think we can assume that these independents will go away. And usually having a Prime minister as your MP is a boost.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    Touch any part of pensions (relief to 20% or the annual allowance) and a lot of people will be retiring rather rapidly.
    The ones that pay all the tax as well
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Are you not a fan of FPTP Casino?
    This triumphalism is a bit icky. The last labour landslide led to the country being complicit in the murder of at least hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians, which was unaccountably fine with the sort of twat who mightily battled apartheid by not eating Cape oranges. Wrong sort of non white person, I suppose. And led to people still being in prison today on indefinite sentences for crimes worth 5 years max because of the insane undemocratic populism of good old Tony's government. I'm sure there's every hope this lot will be an improvement, but Yay! 1997 again! really doesn't sound too good.
    Oh dear, it's going to be a long five years for you, isn't it?

    2024 ≠ 1997
    How do you know?

    I thought you were saying the other day that 1997 was great because the previous government had cosied up to South Africa? So what was it that first distracted you from the fate of those poor, brown, foreign-but-not-South-African murder victims?

    A long five years indeed.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    “We are going to tax the shit out of savers”.

    Rachel Reeves at 5.59pm today. From BBC live feed.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Are you not a fan of FPTP Casino?
    This triumphalism is a bit icky. The last labour landslide led to the country being complicit in the murder of at least hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians, which was unaccountably fine with the sort of twat who mightily battled apartheid by not eating Cape oranges. Wrong sort of non white person, I suppose. And led to people still being in prison today on indefinite sentences for crimes worth 5 years max because of the insane undemocratic populism of good old Tony's government. I'm sure there's every hope this lot will be an improvement, but Yay! 1997 again! really doesn't sound too good.
    Now, now, don’t be mean to Benpointer. He was honest enough to post that he would be happy to pay more tax under Starmer. I am certain that we won’t hear a peep from him when those extra taxes aren’t just taking what he gave in charitable contributions and become meaningful amounts and levied on wealth and assets he thought wouldn’t t be caught up in tax rises, after all its others who will pay in this glorious starmerite new world.

    So allow him his gloat. He will gracefully not utter a word of complaint when the realities of a Labour gov aren’t what he thought and that all give are crap because they aren’t bespoke service providers for each and every person”s needs and desires.

    I predict Casino will have the last laugh.
    I think that Brexit cost my family around £5k in citizenship applications to get back the same rights as we had whilst Britain was in the EU. Annoying but one of those things. One thing I would say is that I am not too clear about the societal benefits Brexit achieved. Whereas tax rises under labour do have the potential of sorting structural problems out, ie building public housing, infrastructure etc if they can be done in such a way that does not scupper growth. That will be the test.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    New Statesman mag, which arrived early yesterday, has piece about Bristol Central and Green fight for Labour seat.

    Concludes it will be v close - a few hundred votes either way.

    Green Carla has a 10K majority today.

    Life comes fast sometimes...

    Carla seems very vacuous, but my interest was peaked when I learned she was "pansexual". I wasn't entirely sure what that meant but I've had a good guess.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Um - it's already been said that the Budget is will be in September / October because thats the time frame the OBR requires. But nice to see you scaremongering already.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    They'd be wise to do some stuff next week which can be done without passing a budget. Get it over with, and do round 2 in the budget.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,825

    New Statesman mag, which arrived early yesterday, has piece about Bristol Central and Green fight for Labour seat.

    Concludes it will be v close - a few hundred votes either way.

    Green Carla has a 10K majority today.

    Life comes fast sometimes...

    Carla seems very vacuous, but my interest was peaked when I learned she was "pansexual". I wasn't entirely sure what that meant but I've had a good guess.
    Its like American pie, but with deep pan pizzas.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    darkage said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Are you not a fan of FPTP Casino?
    This triumphalism is a bit icky. The last labour landslide led to the country being complicit in the murder of at least hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians, which was unaccountably fine with the sort of twat who mightily battled apartheid by not eating Cape oranges. Wrong sort of non white person, I suppose. And led to people still being in prison today on indefinite sentences for crimes worth 5 years max because of the insane undemocratic populism of good old Tony's government. I'm sure there's every hope this lot will be an improvement, but Yay! 1997 again! really doesn't sound too good.
    Now, now, don’t be mean to Benpointer. He was honest enough to post that he would be happy to pay more tax under Starmer. I am certain that we won’t hear a peep from him when those extra taxes aren’t just taking what he gave in charitable contributions and become meaningful amounts and levied on wealth and assets he thought wouldn’t t be caught up in tax rises, after all its others who will pay in this glorious starmerite new world.

    So allow him his gloat. He will gracefully not utter a word of complaint when the realities of a Labour gov aren’t what he thought and that all give are crap because they aren’t bespoke service providers for each and every person”s needs and desires.

    I predict Casino will have the last laugh.
    I think that Brexit cost my family around £5k in citizenship applications to get back the same rights as we had whilst Britain was in the EU. Annoying but one of those things. One thing I would say is that I am not too clear about the societal benefits Brexit achieved. Whereas tax rises under labour do have the potential of sorting structural problems out, ie building public housing, infrastructure etc if they can be done in such a way that does not scupper growth. That will be the test.
    Don't hold your breath
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    boulay said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    “We are going to tax the shit out of savers”.

    Rachel Reeves at 5.59pm today. From BBC live feed.
    Link please - because I've just checked the BBC live feed and guess what I can't see...
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,465
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Smart disciplined strategy leading to a staggeringly efficient vote.
    If you mean the LDs, then yes.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412

    New Statesman mag, which arrived early yesterday, has piece about Bristol Central and Green fight for Labour seat.

    Concludes it will be v close - a few hundred votes either way.

    Green Carla has a 10K majority today.

    Life comes fast sometimes...

    Carla seems very vacuous, but my interest was peaked when I learned she was "pansexual". I wasn't entirely sure what that meant but I've had a good guess.
    She gets turned on by a Dutch oven?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,633
    eek said:

    boulay said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    “We are going to tax the shit out of savers”.

    Rachel Reeves at 5.59pm today. From BBC live feed.
    Link please - because I've just checked the BBC live feed and guess what I can't see...
    To be fair I checked it too 😊
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412
    eek said:

    boulay said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    “We are going to tax the shit out of savers”.

    Rachel Reeves at 5.59pm today. From BBC live feed.
    Link please - because I've just checked the BBC live feed and guess what I can't see...
    Sorry, battery about to die, can’t send the lin
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    New Statesman mag, which arrived early yesterday, has piece about Bristol Central and Green fight for Labour seat.

    Concludes it will be v close - a few hundred votes either way.

    Green Carla has a 10K majority today.

    Life comes fast sometimes...

    Carla seems very vacuous, but my interest was peaked when I learned she was "pansexual". I wasn't entirely sure what that meant but I've had a good guess.
    Its like American pie, but with deep pan pizzas.
    It just means she is a f**kwitted halfwit with the brains of a brick.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    darkage said:

    It will be interesting to see what lessons are taken from the "Reform" situation.

    Option 1 - The right lesson - Labour start to deal with some of the issues they are concerned about in power, the conservative party pick up other areas, they are respected in Parliament and their ideas are scrutinised in debates. Calling them 'fascist' or 'racist' is not done.

    Option 2 - The wrong lesson - they are frozen out AFD style, laws are passed to try and outlaw them and their ideas, with a view to totally completely deplatforming them and removing them from ordinary political discourse.

    Option 1 would, in my view, lead to their marginalisation as a sub 10% party vulnerable to splitting, obscurity and irrelevance. Option 2 would probably just lead to their continued rise and the radicalisation of its followers to such a point where it becomes a major player in the next election.

    Or... we look at what they say, and their ideas, and evaluate them rationally. And when they say racist shit, or other stupidity like Farage often does, they get criticised for it. Just like any other party. They are not special; and whilst they specify some problems that resonate with the public, their solutions are definitely in the 'steal underpants' arena.

    But if what they say is racist, or even fascist, then it should be called out as such.

    (As I've said before, my own view is that Farage is *not* fascist.)
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,791

    New Statesman mag, which arrived early yesterday, has piece about Bristol Central and Green fight for Labour seat.

    Concludes it will be v close - a few hundred votes either way.

    Green Carla has a 10K majority today.

    Life comes fast sometimes...

    Carla seems very vacuous, but my interest was peaked when I learned she was "pansexual". I wasn't entirely sure what that meant but I've had a good guess.
    She is the Baby-Eating Bishop of Bath and Wells.

    And before anyone gets the arse and declares me panphobic, remember that (a) I am LGBT+etc and (b) this is satire
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is interesting. He has made a big deal of rehabilitating ex-cons through his cobbler shop business. Didn't he used to donate to the Tories?

    And Vallance*? Wow!

    * Not Holly!
    I now have this vision of Timpsons offering all the ex-Con MPs jobs as cobblers to aid their rehabilitation and eventual reintegration into society :lol:
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    darkage said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Are you not a fan of FPTP Casino?
    This triumphalism is a bit icky. The last labour landslide led to the country being complicit in the murder of at least hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians, which was unaccountably fine with the sort of twat who mightily battled apartheid by not eating Cape oranges. Wrong sort of non white person, I suppose. And led to people still being in prison today on indefinite sentences for crimes worth 5 years max because of the insane undemocratic populism of good old Tony's government. I'm sure there's every hope this lot will be an improvement, but Yay! 1997 again! really doesn't sound too good.
    Now, now, don’t be mean to Benpointer. He was honest enough to post that he would be happy to pay more tax under Starmer. I am certain that we won’t hear a peep from him when those extra taxes aren’t just taking what he gave in charitable contributions and become meaningful amounts and levied on wealth and assets he thought wouldn’t t be caught up in tax rises, after all its others who will pay in this glorious starmerite new world.

    So allow him his gloat. He will gracefully not utter a word of complaint when the realities of a Labour gov aren’t what he thought and that all give are crap because they aren’t bespoke service providers for each and every person”s needs and desires.

    I predict Casino will have the last laugh.
    I think that Brexit cost my family around £5k in citizenship applications to get back the same rights as we had whilst Britain was in the EU. Annoying but one of those things. One thing I would say is that I am not too clear about the societal benefits Brexit achieved. Whereas tax rises under labour do have the potential of sorting structural problems out, ie building public housing, infrastructure etc if they can be done in such a way that does not scupper growth. That will be the test.
    Anyone who has supported Brexit or has supported those that gave us Brexit and complains about Labour tax rises is disingenuous.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    Some twerp at the BBC has rigorously applied the style-guide rule about numbers under ten being written as words and over ten with digits. So now the alphanumeric sort iPlayer Wimbledon looks like this:

    Centre Court
    Court 10
    Court 11
    Court 12
    Court 13
    Court 14
    Court 15
    Court 16
    Court 17
    Court 18
    Court Eight
    Court Five
    Court Four
    Court Nine
    Court One
    Court Seven
    Court Six
    Court Three
    Court Two
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited July 5
    Any news on what happened to Rod Liddle's bizarre SDP splinter outfit ?

    Always good for a laugh, or a future competitor to Reform, depending on how things go for them, over the next five years.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Um - it's already been said that the Budget is will be in September / October because thats the time frame the OBR requires. But nice to see you scaremongering already.
    Such a weird stream of bitter doomcasting on here tonight.

    There was no entry on the BBC News live feed at 5.59. It appears that Boulay is simply lying.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,825
    AlsoLei said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Um - it's already been said that the Budget is will be in September / October because thats the time frame the OBR requires. But nice to see you scaremongering already.
    Such a weird stream of bitter doomcasting on here tonight.

    There was no entry on the BBC News live feed at 5.59. It appears that Boulay is simply lying.
    It read as obvious sarcasm/joke to me.

    Obviously even if Reeves was going to do that, she wouldn't phrase it so bluntly.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317

    darkage said:

    It will be interesting to see what lessons are taken from the "Reform" situation.

    Option 1 - The right lesson - Labour start to deal with some of the issues they are concerned about in power, the conservative party pick up other areas, they are respected in Parliament and their ideas are scrutinised in debates. Calling them 'fascist' or 'racist' is not done.

    Option 2 - The wrong lesson - they are frozen out AFD style, laws are passed to try and outlaw them and their ideas, with a view to totally completely deplatforming them and removing them from ordinary political discourse.

    Option 1 would, in my view, lead to their marginalisation as a sub 10% party vulnerable to splitting, obscurity and irrelevance. Option 2 would probably just lead to their continued rise and the radicalisation of its followers to such a point where it becomes a major player in the next election.

    Or... we look at what they say, and their ideas, and evaluate them rationally. And when they say racist shit, or other stupidity like Farage often does, they get criticised for it. Just like any other party. They are not special; and whilst they specify some problems that resonate with the public, their solutions are definitely in the 'steal underpants' arena.

    But if what they say is racist, or even fascist, then it should be called out as such.

    (As I've said before, my own view is that Farage is *not* fascist.)
    As far as I can work out, the problem with their ideas is mostly that they are not realistic and cannot be implemented - the usual populist problem. On my reading there is nothing racist or fascist about their manifesto - I find this to be close to defamation and particularly insulting to some of their candidates who come from immigrant backgrounds. They attract extreme characters with offensive views but all parties have this issue.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    AlsoLei said:

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is an excellent choice for job. I'd assumed he was a Tory, though, like his brother...
    I met them a couple of times at charity functions. Got the impression that their thing was old fashioned Liberalism charity - if you have money, build schools and hospices and setup charities to do so. See Peabody etc etc
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,909
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Reeves said No budget or new measures until an Autumn budget.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/28/labour-has-no-tax-surprises-in-election-campaign-rachel-reeves-says

    Partly she doesn't want to spook the markets, but I think it simply that she wants to be much better prepared by a thorough examination of the books.

    This is very much the Starmer/Reeves approach. Proper planning prevents piss-poor performance.
    I love this concept of “examining the books”. Both parties use this silly line but in reality it’s all published every time by the OBR. The only thing the Opposition doesn’t have is a fresh forecast, but the Government doesn’t have that until it commissions it either.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962
    Putting Liz Kendall as work and pensions Secretary make me feel better
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    It will be interesting to see what lessons are taken from the "Reform" situation.

    Option 1 - The right lesson - Labour start to deal with some of the issues they are concerned about in power, the conservative party pick up other areas, they are respected in Parliament and their ideas are scrutinised in debates. Calling them 'fascist' or 'racist' is not done.

    Option 2 - The wrong lesson - they are frozen out AFD style, laws are passed to try and outlaw them and their ideas, with a view to totally completely deplatforming them and removing them from ordinary political discourse.

    Option 1 would, in my view, lead to their marginalisation as a sub 10% party vulnerable to splitting, obscurity and irrelevance. Option 2 would probably just lead to their continued rise and the radicalisation of its followers to such a point where it becomes a major player in the next election.

    Or... we look at what they say, and their ideas, and evaluate them rationally. And when they say racist shit, or other stupidity like Farage often does, they get criticised for it. Just like any other party. They are not special; and whilst they specify some problems that resonate with the public, their solutions are definitely in the 'steal underpants' arena.

    But if what they say is racist, or even fascist, then it should be called out as such.

    (As I've said before, my own view is that Farage is *not* fascist.)
    As far as I can work out, the problem with their ideas is mostly that they are not realistic and cannot be implemented - the usual populist problem. On my reading there is nothing racist or fascist about their manifesto - I find this to be close to defamation and particularly insulting to some of their candidates who come from immigrant backgrounds. They attract extreme characters with offensive views but all parties have this issue.
    They appear to have more of the issue.

    As for people from immigrant backgrounds: people of all colours can be racist.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415

    AlsoLei said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Um - it's already been said that the Budget is will be in September / October because thats the time frame the OBR requires. But nice to see you scaremongering already.
    Such a weird stream of bitter doomcasting on here tonight.

    There was no entry on the BBC News live feed at 5.59. It appears that Boulay is simply lying.
    It read as obvious sarcasm/joke to me.

    Obviously even if Reeves was going to do that, she wouldn't phrase it so bluntly.
    Yes, sorry, I should have phrased that as "talking nonsense" or something!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    edited July 5

    We knew that Labour needed to appoint a shitton of working peers. Interesting that Starmer is utilising that as an opportunity to install external experts and heavy hitters to his government.

    Lord Timpson? Prison reform minister? Fantastic idea.

    I think Starmer recognises the wisdom of Douglas Hurd's aphorism "Prison is an expensive way of making bad people worse"

    Cutting the re-offending rate is the sort of productivity improvement that our criminal justice system needs.

    If this is a sign that Starmer isn't interested in populist gimmicks, but rather in the hard work of serious improvement then I may change my mind over him.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ..

    AlsoLei said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Um - it's already been said that the Budget is will be in September / October because thats the time frame the OBR requires. But nice to see you scaremongering already.
    Such a weird stream of bitter doomcasting on here tonight.

    There was no entry on the BBC News live feed at 5.59. It appears that Boulay is simply lying.
    It read as obvious sarcasm/joke to me.

    Obviously even if Reeves was going to do that, she wouldn't phrase it so bluntly.
    If the Tory rampers are going to make random shit up the site is much diminished. It's one thing speculating but couching it as reality is bollocks.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    AlsoLei said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Um - it's already been said that the Budget is will be in September / October because thats the time frame the OBR requires. But nice to see you scaremongering already.
    Such a weird stream of bitter doomcasting on here tonight.

    There was no entry on the BBC News live feed at 5.59. It appears that Boulay is simply lying.
    Not exactly a wise move on a site where people do actually checks things.

    Adds Boulay to the list of people to ignore as they are known liars..
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    boulay said:

    AlsoLei said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Um - it's already been said that the Budget is will be in September / October because thats the time frame the OBR requires. But nice to see you scaremongering already.
    Such a weird stream of bitter doomcasting on here tonight.

    There was no entry on the BBC News live feed at 5.59. It appears that Boulay is simply lying.
    Seriously - is there even a bbc live feed running still and would RR say “we’re going to tax the shit out of savers”?

    Technically I am lying. I shall find a way to signal when I’m talking bollocks in future but until I find a suitable emoji just assume everything I post is a lie or sarcastic.

    Oh and the 5.59 time stamp should have been a giveaway as had to be rushed out before the boss went home.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liar_paradox
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited July 5

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    It's in their DNA. They feel envious of anyone who saves for a rainy day or pensions
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    FF43 said:

    darkage said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Are you not a fan of FPTP Casino?
    This triumphalism is a bit icky. The last labour landslide led to the country being complicit in the murder of at least hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians, which was unaccountably fine with the sort of twat who mightily battled apartheid by not eating Cape oranges. Wrong sort of non white person, I suppose. And led to people still being in prison today on indefinite sentences for crimes worth 5 years max because of the insane undemocratic populism of good old Tony's government. I'm sure there's every hope this lot will be an improvement, but Yay! 1997 again! really doesn't sound too good.
    Now, now, don’t be mean to Benpointer. He was honest enough to post that he would be happy to pay more tax under Starmer. I am certain that we won’t hear a peep from him when those extra taxes aren’t just taking what he gave in charitable contributions and become meaningful amounts and levied on wealth and assets he thought wouldn’t t be caught up in tax rises, after all its others who will pay in this glorious starmerite new world.

    So allow him his gloat. He will gracefully not utter a word of complaint when the realities of a Labour gov aren’t what he thought and that all give are crap because they aren’t bespoke service providers for each and every person”s needs and desires.

    I predict Casino will have the last laugh.
    I think that Brexit cost my family around £5k in citizenship applications to get back the same rights as we had whilst Britain was in the EU. Annoying but one of those things. One thing I would say is that I am not too clear about the societal benefits Brexit achieved. Whereas tax rises under labour do have the potential of sorting structural problems out, ie building public housing, infrastructure etc if they can be done in such a way that does not scupper growth. That will be the test.
    Anyone who has supported Brexit or has supported those that gave us Brexit and complains about Labour tax rises is disingenuous.
    Rubbish. Brexit has not cost me money. Tax rises (depending on what they are) will. There is nothing disingenuous about that.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    boulay said:

    AlsoLei said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Um - it's already been said that the Budget is will be in September / October because thats the time frame the OBR requires. But nice to see you scaremongering already.
    Such a weird stream of bitter doomcasting on here tonight.

    There was no entry on the BBC News live feed at 5.59. It appears that Boulay is simply lying.
    Seriously - is there even a bbc live feed running still and would RR say “we’re going to tax the shit out of savers”?

    Technically I am lying. I shall find a way to signal when I’m talking bollocks in future but until I find a suitable emoji just assume everything I post is a lie or sarcastic.

    Oh and the 5.59 time stamp should have been a giveaway as had to be rushed out before the boss went home.
    Yes, I overreacted - sorry!

    I blame my sense of humour failure on having had only two hours sleep. Probably time for me to call it a night soon...
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    They would have to grapple with the problem of people retiring early if this happens which is why the lifetime contributions limit was removed recently?. It may be easier for labour to just tax pension wealth when it is being withdrawn and/or upon inheritance.
This discussion has been closed.