all this talk about low vote share on sky. Labour beat Lettuce Liz but only got 26.5% of the vote. How many more seats were won with less than 30% of the vote?
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
The problem as I see it is not the ideological position of the Conservatives, but their failure to actually deliver. Their manifesto had a lot for older and right wing voters, but nobody trusted them to deliver it.
Fair point. All elections are about whether its time for change or not to risk change, and when people don't trust you to deliver it's easy to go for the former.
The LDs did not make any effort there I suspect, as they did not in SW Wiltshire, where Labour also came second. They focused on South Cotswolds, Melksham and Devizes, and Chippenham, and won them all.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Sorry but it was completely false, they wouldn't have won even if they'd have saved more they'd have simply lost less badly.
But to win you need a big tent and Farage and his Putinist scum have a tiny tent. The Tories have done much worse than Labour but mammothly better than the Putinist rabble.
If the Tories follow on this defeat by chasing after Farage, then they deserve to lose even worse next time.
I think chasing Farage will lose them more next time, but if Reform had been blunted without going full Putin they could have salvaged more this time.
If they could step into the fire without being burnt ...
Politics is about choices, chase the extremes and you deserve an extreme (and thus poor) result.
Labour lost the Hamas vote this time, and won a massive landslide majority.
The Tories do not need the Putinists, they need a big tent.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
Labour lost big in previously safe Labour seats to the pro-Gazan protest vote, including Greens..
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
Don't forget also how Johnson transformed proportional voting systems to FPTP for his own benefit. See the London mayoralty.
The whole thing has been one massive by-election. Low turnout, protests against those in power (ex Wales), single issue winners, Lib Dems winning everywhere.
This is an almost perfect result based on the polling we had, from my pov. Tory / Ref vote share could have been slightly less efficient, but I’ll take this. Labour has won a majority, but they already look bloodied by the left.
The story will be about Refs vote share and the Tory collapse, but lots of Labour MPs and voters might be muttering that if Labour had been just a bit more considerate about their base, this majority could be bigger. Labour could not have done anything to convince the RefUK or Tory voters to vote for them - there was a lot they could have done to convince Green and Indy voters to vote for them.
No, if Starmer had given an inch to the pro-Hamas mob, it would have cost him dozens of gains.
I disagree with this. Starmer only had to acknowledge some inevitability on how the Gaza situation would play out and he would have avoided a lot of grief. Shutting down a position that he would later have to take wasn't a smart move.
The whole thing has been one massive by-election. Low turnout, protests against those in power (ex Wales), single issue winners, Lib Dems winning everywhere.
Except it was a General Election….
Which sort of makes it exciting, in the sense that there’s been a lot of local democracy in action.
Just woke up to a slightly odd looking picture compared to when I turned in around 2am. A bit of head scratching for Sir John perhaps? Not used to "exit poll a bit wrong shocker ", I guess Labour and SNP pretty bob on but Tory and Reform and LD not so. To be fair he did seem sceptical himself about it right at the start.
I turned in thinking we'd have a centre right bloc of near 160 (Tory/Ref/Ulster) but that's just not come off.
And yet from briefest dip into some results near me it's agonising to see good decent Tories I liked coming so close to hanging on and certain to have won without Farage stinking the election out.
Surely would have been a hung parliament if he'd not returned?
Gutted but at least the worst didn't befall the Tories, just not as "less bad" as it appeared at 10pm.
410+ seats on 35pc though and already net unpopularity before you enter No 10. No basis for a strong Starmer premiership I think. 2029 is still game on even if the headline stats don't imply that.
I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
Labour lost big in previously safe Labour seats to the pro-Gazan protest vote, including Greens..
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
No one crying, but some of us are just pointing out this is a very, very odd result and it's highly unlikely Labour will be able to repeat this result or anything close to it in 2029.
That said, of course it's a moment of celebration for Labour and SKS, so well done and enjoy!
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Sorry but it was completely false, they wouldn't have won even if they'd have saved more they'd have simply lost less badly.
But to win you need a big tent and Farage and his Putinist scum have a tiny tent. The Tories have done much worse than Labour but mammothly better than the Putinist rabble.
If the Tories follow on this defeat by chasing after Farage, then they deserve to lose even worse next time.
I think chasing Farage will lose them more next time, but if Reform had been blunted without going full Putin they could have salvaged more this time.
If they could step into the fire without being burnt ...
Politics is about choices, chase the extremes and you deserve an extreme (and thus poor) result.
Labour lost the Hamas vote this time, and won a massive landslide majority.
The Tories do not need the Putinists, they need a big tent.
Well, yes.
You and I would both prefer to vote for a competent right wing party that (a) did not prioritize the interests of pensioners, (b) remembered that lots of people need housing, (c) was not obsessed with culture war issues, and (d) is aware that a democratic European nation was invaded.
Sadly, the Conservatives fail a, b and probably c. While Reform fails c and d.
I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
Labour lost big in previously safe Labour seats to the pro-Gazan protest vote, including Greens..
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
We have FPTP. It is our system of democracy. This is not news to anyone.
Labour and the Lib Dems have played it well. The Tories have fallen victim. They have won majorities under the same system, and one day probably will again.
Point of Order. In the parliamentary arithmetic Reform have one more than Green as the TUV (Jim McCallister) will almost certainly take the Reform whip.
It is worth remembering that less than four years ago we were all talking about how Starmer and Davey would fare badly in an election because all they offered was boring competence.
Maybe Sunak should have tried some of that rather than pandering to London-centric nutcases with small brains and massive egos.
On the other hand, what really smashed him was the more exciting brand of incompetence offered by Farage and his crew.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
Yet her mantra of economic growth has been forced on to the agenda and is often touted as a Labour priority, despite them having no clue how to make it happen.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
The Conservatives drove the center off under Johnson, and then drove the right off under Sunak. It was the worst of all worlds for them.
That is exactly right. And where do they go from here. Who's left to make the call.
Congrats to Labour fans. I hope for the country Starmer does well, I hope from my bitter bitter heart he doesn’t.
I hope the Tories have some sense (haha) and take their time over the leadership showdown to come. There isn’t a hurry so keep Sunak in place as LotO and do it properly, a serious debate about where to go and who to lead backed by sensible people analysing the electorate and looking at where the country could be in four years rather than fighting the same war they’ve just lost.
On more important matters I would love to know the mechanics of them moving out and moving into Downing Street in one day. Do they have a company that provides temporary furniture for over the weekend whilst the Starmer’s decide what to move into their new abode?
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
The problem as I see it is not the ideological position of the Conservatives, but their failure to actually deliver. Their manifesto had a lot for older and right wing voters, but nobody trusted them to deliver it.
I'm a right wing voter, and I was actively repulsed by their manifesto.
I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
Labour lost big in previously safe Labour seats to the pro-Gazan protest vote, including Greens..
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
No one crying, but some of us are just pointing out this is a very, very odd result and it's highly unlikely Labour will be able to repeat this result or anything close to it in 2029.
That said, of course it's a moment of celebration for Labour and SKS, so well done and enjoy!
It doesn't feel like 1997. The spectre of Farage is worrysome.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
Yet her mantra of economic growth has been forced on to the agenda and is often touted as a Labour priority, despite them having no clue how to make it happen.
FFS. Every government since the year dot has had *growth* as a priority.
all this talk about low vote share on sky. Labour beat Lettuce Liz but only got 26.5% of the vote. How many more seats were won with less than 30% of the vote?
What's also striking is the number of seats with turnout in the mid 70%s or in the mid 40%s. Sometimes quite close to each other.
I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
Labour lost big in previously safe Labour seats to the pro-Gazan protest vote, including Greens..
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
No one crying, but some of us are just pointing out this is a very, very odd result and it's highly unlikely Labour will be able to repeat this result or anything close to it in 2029.
That said, of course it's a moment of celebration for Labour and SKS, so well done and enjoy!
It doesn't feel like 1997. The spectre of Farage is worrysome.
Farage has 4 million votes, these are the people who have been ignored for most of this century.
It's not "Where the hell is Matt?", but "Where the hell is Lettuce Liz?"
Matt has just cracked open his wine to toast the political death of Mark Harper.
And I will keep a half glass for Liz Truss.
I'm actually a bit sad about that. I knew him quite well at one time and although he was a dud minister he is a decent enough person and a hardworking MP.
I can't be that magnanimous.
As a Transport Minister he publicly based his policy on claims which were conspiracy theories (about LTNs and 20-Minute Cities), later included in the "Conspiracy Theories" document published by the Leader of the House.
He cynically created wedge issues, and policies such as seeking to close hundreds of ticket offices, whilst not consulting disabled people's groups whose lives would be impacted, whist dishonestly trying to pass that off as an initiative of the rail conpanies, is unforgiveable. It took 750k submission from the public to overcome that - which time we could all have spent on something worthwhile.
Overall, his policies ignored the research and policy work done by his department, all for politics and butt-saving.
I won't even get onto the "Plan for Drivers", and the potential damage he did road safety by undermining measures which improved it.
And as for declaring e-mopeds to be pedal cycles and wanting to allow them on shared pavements legally - FFS !!
Shapps was as bad. We have had a *very* lucky escape.
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
Yet her mantra of economic growth has been forced on to the agenda and is often touted as a Labour priority, despite them having no clue how to make it happen.
Reeves appears to understand that growth comes from capital investments - housing, infrastructure, fixing planning so companies can expand & better jobs lead to growing national wealth.
Truss’ solution was to cut taxes & trigger a funding crisis for the UK government.
Identifying growth as the problem is trivial. How you go about getting it is what matters.
(Good morning to all btw & congrats to Labour on their historic victory.)
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
The problem as I see it is not the ideological position of the Conservatives, but their failure to actually deliver. Their manifesto had a lot for older and right wing voters, but nobody trusted them to deliver it.
I'm a right wing voter, and I was actively repulsed by their manifesto.
You're not a voter that a political party wanting to win big should court. For different reasons I'm not either.
The first rule of politics is learn to count. We don't help the numbers.
I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
Labour lost big in previously safe Labour seats to the pro-Gazan protest vote, including Greens..
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
No one crying, but some of us are just pointing out this is a very, very odd result and it's highly unlikely Labour will be able to repeat this result or anything close to it in 2029.
That said, of course it's a moment of celebration for Labour and SKS, so well done and enjoy!
It doesn't feel like 1997. The spectre of Farage is worrysome.
It feels more like a strange and somewhat dangerous version of 1983.
Very interesting percentages with only a few left to declare: Labour 34%, Tory 23.6%m Reform 14.3 % Lib Dem 12.2% Green 6.8%
The Labour vote is really low, certainly compared to the polling over the last month. But, as Maggie showed in the 1980s, if your opponent vote is split you can win very big.
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
You beat what's in front of you. It may be fair to point out Labour's voteshare is not super impressive, and even to suggest this could mean problems for them down the line. But 'has not won' is just stupid phrasing to get attention.
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
I agree - tactical voting has seen the Labour vote go up in marginal seats just as it has dropped in safe Labour seats as those Labour voters stayed home because the outcome was inevitable.
So long as we stick with FPTP, turnout is just reading the tealeaves.
Very interesting percentages with only a few left to declare: Labour 34%, Tory 23.6%m Reform 14.3 % Lib Dem 12.2% Green 6.8%
The Labour vote is really low, certainly compared to the polling over the last month. But, as Maggie showed in the 1980s, if your opponent vote is split you can win very big.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
Yet her mantra of economic growth has been forced on to the agenda and is often touted as a Labour priority, despite them having no clue how to make it happen.
FFS. Every government since the year dot has had *growth* as a priority.
She didn't just fucking discover it.
Sorry but that's just not true, too many people are very actively opposed to growth, as well as opposing investment in infrastructure lest it "induce demand" (create growth).
- The exit poll seems to have declared results quite well on the big numbers.
- I seem to be several hundred £££ up. I may have missed out on Reform vote - I am only covered to 16%.
- So excited about waking up to the news that I lost my spectacles, and a middle-aged man without his spectacles is less use than a Pobble without his toes.
- Where's my Aunt Jobiska with her feast of eggs and butterflies fried with fish?
- Amazing Lib Dem result, with a lot of majorities over 12k.
- Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire have done what I predicted back in April. Total Tory wipeout except Jenrick and the Leeanderthal Man.
- Greens better than I expected at 4.
- I am not sure whether Tories or SNP have suffered the greater meltdown.
- Scottish Independence off the agenda for a generation. Which, judging by the words of Swinney, was about 90 minutes.
- Turnover looks squeaky for those betting around the 60% number.
- Things will start moving VERY fast now.
Among smalls and sectarians.
- The Gallowazzock is gone until next time he resurfaces. Good.
- Disappointed that Corbyn made it.
- Delighted that Jody Mcintyre did not make it and Jess Philips did, even if it was close. Fifteen years ago he was thrown off the Christian Aid magazine as a columnist for antiosemitic content.
- Sir K has a new Gaza-talking essentially racist caucus to manage, I suspect. Tricky line to walk.
Congrats on the wins, Matt.
Just remembered I punted on Reform 7+ seats at 10:01pm.
A mildy-costly lesson to remember.
Seems to be a good habit for me to resolve not to try rapid tactical bets, and instead rely on a cautious strategy.
I can't predict the electoral geography of 2029 with much confidence, but I'd put his odds of remaining PM after the next election at ~evens, right now.
Perhaps slightly odds-on.
The political and media landscape is about to change considerably.
I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
Labour lost big in previously safe Labour seats to the pro-Gazan protest vote, including Greens..
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
No one crying, but some of us are just pointing out this is a very, very odd result and it's highly unlikely Labour will be able to repeat this result or anything close to it in 2029.
That said, of course it's a moment of celebration for Labour and SKS, so well done and enjoy!
It doesn't feel like 1997. The spectre of Farage is worrysome.
Very interesting percentages with only a few left to declare: Labour 34%, Tory 23.6%m Reform 14.3 % Lib Dem 12.2% Green 6.8%
The Labour vote is really low, certainly compared to the polling over the last month. But, as Maggie showed in the 1980s, if your opponent vote is split you can win very big.
Maggie always got over 40% with all her wins?
Yes, but her majorities were flattered by the split between the Alliance and Labour. The split between the Tories and Reform has made the Labour vote extremely efficient.
Just woke up to a slightly odd looking picture compared to when I turned in around 2am. A bit of head scratching for Sir John perhaps? Not used to "exit poll a bit wrong shocker ", I guess Labour and SNP pretty bob on but Tory and Reform and LD not so. To be fair he did seem sceptical himself about it right at the start.
I turned in thinking we'd have a centre right bloc of near 160 (Tory/Ref/Ulster) but that's just not come off.
And yet from briefest dip into some results near me it's agonising to see good decent Tories I liked coming so close to hanging on and certain to have won without Farage stinking the election out.
Surely would have been a hung parliament if he'd not returned?
Gutted but at least the worst didn't befall the Tories, just not as "less bad" as it appeared at 10pm.
410+ seats on 35pc though and already net unpopularity before you enter No 10. No basis for a strong Starmer premiership I think. 2029 is still game on even if the headline stats don't imply that.
You are foolishly assuming RedWall Reform voters would have stuck with the Tories. They hate the Tories. They would have voted Labour or stayed at home.
Sunak's last minute "supermajority" voter suppression tactics to keep Labour voters at home has also bolstered Farage.
If Starmer succeeds, then he will win comfortably in 2029.
However, there is an awful lot on his in tray and labours traditional solutions will make things worse.
Without being hyperbolic, Labours future rests principally on Rachel Reeves shoulders and Starmers willingness to let her do things that will have the left of the party and the Libdems, and even some "one nation" conservatives up in arms.
His large majority with losses of inner city seats and gains of places like Hitchin will help.
However, if Starmer bottles it like Blair did with Frank Field and neuters or removes her, then Farage will be hovering like a vulture in 2029.
The results show a pretty clear message, to me - where Tories are used to winning the electorate decided to kick them out. Where the choice wasn’t about the Tories - voters told Labour they weren’t particularly happy with them, either. The next government will be very interesting…
Very interesting percentages with only a few left to declare: Labour 34%, Tory 23.6%m Reform 14.3 % Lib Dem 12.2% Green 6.8%
The Labour vote is really low, certainly compared to the polling over the last month. But, as Maggie showed in the 1980s, if your opponent vote is split you can win very big.
Maggie always got over 40% with all her wins?
But in 1987 the next two parties had 27.6% and 25.4% - well over 50% of the vote between them, as opposed to about 38% now.
It's just that the fragmentation is more developed now.
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
You beat what's in front of you. It may be fair to point out Labour's voteshare is not super impressive, and even to suggest this could mean problems for them down the line. But 'has not won' is just stupid phrasing to get attention.
I think it's a good take. It means Labour have won by default - due to exhaustion of the existing administration- but haven't really won over anyone to their programme. Under 35% is derisory for a new administration looking to take over, and barely ahead of 2019GE in England.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
Yet her mantra of economic growth has been forced on to the agenda and is often touted as a Labour priority, despite them having no clue how to make it happen.
Reeves appears to understand that growth comes from capital investments - housing, infrastructure, fixing planning so companies can expand & better jobs lead to growing national wealth.
Truss’ solution was to cut taxes & trigger a funding crisis for the UK government.
Identifying growth as the problem is trivial. How you go about getting it is what matters.
(Good morning to all btw & congrats to Labour on their historic victory.)
I rarely agree with you, or Labour, on economics but yes this is 100% right and this is why I lent Labour my vote.
Fix planning and we can have growth.
We see anti-growth arguments behind planning in our debates all the time. A common retort when I say I oppose NIMBYism is how I would feel if a factory was built near me?
The idea we should oppose factories being created represents everything wrong with the mentality in this country.
Indeed. He is the Prime Minister of a once great nation whose country is filled full of potholes, effluent in the rivers, crumbling infrastructure, an overburdened welfare bill, house repossessions going through the roof, the highest tax rates ever seen and an underfunded defence budget against the threat from Putin. Call an election, get rid!
Of course (different circumstances agreed) that's what you all said of Blair in 1997. If you are right, the net beneficiaries might not be the Tories. Nigel has broken the surface tension and is swimming in the Conservative's soup.
Just rolled out of my wanking chariot to see Captain Mordaunt RNR, JRM, Ada Shufflebottom, Shappsie and the infant coypu that he carries around on top of his head have all been cashiered. Not quite the scene of widespread slaughter I'd hoped for but a dead tory is still a dead tory. 👍
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
You beat what's in front of you. It may be fair to point out Labour's voteshare is not super impressive, and even to suggest this could mean problems for them down the line. But 'has not won' is just stupid phrasing to get attention.
I think it's a good take. It means Labour have won by default - due to exhaustion of the existing administration- but haven't really won over anyone to their programme. Under 35% is derisory for a new administration looking to take over, and barely ahead of 2019GE in England.
1997 this is not.
Your second sentence doesn't seem to relate to the first. The second may indeed be a good take, but 'won by default' is a very very different take to 'Labour has not won' as quoted, which is just silly for the sake of being silly, and did not restrict to whether they had won people to their 'programme'.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
Yet her mantra of economic growth has been forced on to the agenda and is often touted as a Labour priority, despite them having no clue how to make it happen.
That wasn't really her mantra though, was it? 'Economic growth' is an objective, and one few politicians would disagree with. It's how you get there - and that's where she failed.
Comments
Con (Kruger) 16849
Lab 12133
LD 8204
Ref 7885
Grn 1844
True & Fair 278
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001217
I thought the LDs would be second here.
BBC: Lab 410, Con 116
Sky: Lab 409, Con 117
Someone has screwed up.
I suspect Sky is wrong - they had an extra Con seat compared to their map from the start.
Politics is about choices, chase the extremes and you deserve an extreme (and thus poor) result.
Labour lost the Hamas vote this time, and won a massive landslide majority.
The Tories do not need the Putinists, they need a big tent.
It's pretty well the same dynamic, albeit with somewhat different politics.
It fuelled the argument for PR back then; it should do so again, now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/N05000012
WHAT FUCKING PLANET ARE YOU ON LUCKYGUY????!!!!
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
Don't forget also how Johnson transformed proportional voting systems to FPTP for his own benefit. See the London mayoralty.
Except it was a General Election….
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001558
But it does make FPTP look a bit bonkers.
I turned in thinking we'd have a centre right bloc of near 160 (Tory/Ref/Ulster) but that's just not come off.
And yet from briefest dip into some results near me it's agonising to see good decent Tories I liked coming so close to hanging on and certain to have won without Farage stinking the election out.
Surely would have been a hung parliament if he'd not returned?
Gutted but at least the worst didn't befall the Tories, just not as "less bad" as it appeared at 10pm.
410+ seats on 35pc though and already net unpopularity before you enter No 10. No basis for a strong Starmer premiership I think. 2029 is still game on even if the headline stats don't imply that.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001120
That said, of course it's a moment of celebration for Labour and SKS, so well done and enjoy!
You and I would both prefer to vote for a competent right wing party that (a) did not prioritize the interests of pensioners, (b) remembered that lots of people need housing, (c) was not obsessed with culture war issues, and (d) is aware that a democratic European nation was invaded.
Sadly, the Conservatives fail a, b and probably c. While Reform fails c and d.
Labour and the Lib Dems have played it well. The Tories have fallen victim. They have won majorities under the same system, and one day probably will again.
Con 16831
Lab 16770
LD 8232
Ref 7784
Grn 3338
Ind 477
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001155
I hope the Tories have some sense (haha) and take their time over the leadership showdown to come. There isn’t a hurry so keep Sunak in place as LotO and do it properly, a serious debate about where to go and who to lead backed by sensible people analysing the electorate and looking at where the country could be in four years rather than fighting the same war they’ve just lost.
On more important matters I would love to know the mechanics of them moving out and moving into Downing Street in one day. Do they have a company that provides temporary furniture for over the weekend whilst the Starmer’s decide what to move into their new abode?
LD 21178
Con 20544
Ref 6673
Lab 5057
Grn 1425
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001392
She didn't just fucking discover it.
Sometimes quite close to each other.
As a Transport Minister he publicly based his policy on claims which were conspiracy theories (about LTNs and 20-Minute Cities), later included in the "Conspiracy Theories" document published by the Leader of the House.
He cynically created wedge issues, and policies such as seeking to close hundreds of ticket offices, whilst not consulting disabled people's groups whose lives would be impacted, whist dishonestly trying to pass that off as an initiative of the rail conpanies, is unforgiveable. It took 750k submission from the public to overcome that - which time we could all have spent on something worthwhile.
Overall, his policies ignored the research and policy work done by his department, all for politics and butt-saving.
I won't even get onto the "Plan for Drivers", and the potential damage he did road safety by undermining measures which improved it.
And as for declaring e-mopeds to be pedal cycles and wanting to allow them on shared pavements legally - FFS !!
Shapps was as bad. We have had a *very* lucky escape.
For me, damn good riddance to both.
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
Truss’ solution was to cut taxes & trigger a funding crisis for the UK government.
Identifying growth as the problem is trivial. How you go about getting it is what matters.
(Good morning to all btw & congrats to Labour on their historic victory.)
The first rule of politics is learn to count. We don't help the numbers.
So long as we stick with FPTP, turnout is just reading the tealeaves.
(I think whatshername former Scottish Tory Leader has been a very good commentator.
Did she ask any Ministers "Are you OK, Hun?" on Sky.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001451
A mildy-costly lesson to remember.
Seems to be a good habit for me to resolve not to try rapid tactical bets, and instead rely on a cautious strategy.
Perhaps slightly odds-on.
The political and media landscape is about to change considerably.
Good.
Too often previously the results stop now with then many counts starting soon.
Sunak's last minute "supermajority" voter suppression tactics to keep Labour voters at home has also bolstered Farage.
However, there is an awful lot on his in tray and labours traditional solutions will make things worse.
Without being hyperbolic, Labours future rests principally on Rachel Reeves shoulders and Starmers willingness to let her do things that will have the left of the party and the Libdems, and even some "one nation" conservatives up in arms.
His large majority with losses of inner city seats and gains of places like Hitchin will help.
However, if Starmer bottles it like Blair did with Frank Field and neuters or removes her, then Farage will be hovering like a vulture in 2029.
Edit: notably, he did try. Which is more than can be said for many candidates.
It's just that the fragmentation is more developed now.
Poole - 6 votes
1997 this is not.
So that's a tiny win of £17, which could have been £300 with a lower number - but at least reduces the cost of my 10:01pm 7+ seats instapunt.
Fix planning and we can have growth.
We see anti-growth arguments behind planning in our debates all the time. A common retort when I say I oppose NIMBYism is how I would feel if a factory was built near me?
The idea we should oppose factories being created represents everything wrong with the mentality in this country.
Of course (different circumstances agreed) that's what you all said of Blair in 1997. If you are right, the net beneficiaries might not be the Tories. Nigel has broken the surface tension and is swimming in the Conservative's soup.
CON: 123
LAB: 414
LD: 63
REF: 2
GREEN: 3
SNP: 22
PC: 3
OTH: 20.
Pretty damn chuffed with the CON/LAB totals!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001308
You?
But a clear win for GOTV which Reform just didn't have.