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Labour wins a majority but it is a bit complicated – politicalbetting.com

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  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    LT is one of the greatest political enigmas of our age. Hopefully her defeat will let her unwind from the mental tangle she got herself into. Either that or she ends up as a sad sideshow on GB News.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    edited July 5

    Which seat did the Conservatives gain?

    Leicester East.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001326
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,022

    Which seat did the Conservatives gain?

    Leicester East.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Turnout expected to just beat 2001, for what it is worth.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,452
    Bad form for Turss to walk off without a concession speech. Though I can understand the emotion.

    I'd love a candidate to stand up there and rant at the electorate, telling them they're wrong. They'd be wrong to do so but it would be funny.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,612
    Pulpstar said:

    St Ives to come which must be a LD cert.

    Has already been declared: Andrew George with more than 50%.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Chickened out of a speech. Graceless to the end.

    And she killed the queen.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    You can now drive from Ilfracombe to Eastbourne within Libdem constituencies throughout.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:

    Mr. grss, by that line of reasoning:
    What's the difference between 16 year old and 15 year olds voting?
    And 15 and 14?
    And 14 and 13?

    I agree. I don’t think there should be an age threshold to vote - as long as you can and wish to vote, you should be allowed to. I don’t know what the rules are for those who are incapacitated due to age and proxy voting, but similar rules should be used for the young. One of my great grandparents was a non verbal Alzheimer’s patient for 10+ years - I don’t know if she had a proxy or not, but that doesn’t seem that different to a 3-4 year old to me.
    A simple solution would be to allow anyone who passes the GCSE citizenship to vote. No age restrictions. Make the exam optional & free to sit.
    No - there shouldn’t be a test for voting. You’d disenfranchise those with learning difficulties, those who may have physical disabilities that make it hard to do exams (blindness), and, of course, you could change the difficulty of the test to just make it a proxy for class.

    Intellect and knowledge are not and should not be the basis for why people have a right to vote because that can quickly become a method of disenfranchisement based on income or class - and therefore any age limit is arbitrary. The only test should be desire and willingness to vote. And children and young people can do that just as well as the old.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,946

    Bad form for Turss to walk off without a concession speech. Though I can understand the emotion.

    I'd love a candidate to stand up there and rant at the electorate, telling them they're wrong. They'd be wrong to do so but it would be funny.

    No need - they spent the whole campaign doing that
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    It's not "Where the hell is Matt?", but "Where the hell is Lettuce Liz?"

    Matt has just cracked open his wine to toast the political death of Mark Harper.

    And I will keep a half glass for Liz Truss.

    And she's run away ...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,890
    edited July 5
    ydoethur said:

    It is worth remembering that less than four years ago we were all talking about how Starmer and Davey would fare badly in an election because all they offered was boring competence.

    Maybe Sunak should have tried some of that rather than pandering to London-centric nutcases with small brains and massive egos.

    The Conservative performance has been so woeful that even their eleventh hour "supermajority" nonsense would appear to have bolstered Farage with no net benefit to themselves.

    The clamour for Ref-Con alliance is inevitable. The Conservative Party under Johnson, Truss and Sunak have fed the monster that is Farage and he is about to consume them. Last night Zahawi was on about what barstewards Labour were whilst stroking the Reform cat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited July 5
    Taz said:

    Which seat did the Conservatives gain?

    Leicester East.
    Make the winner Leader!

    Granted local circumstances cannot be repeated elsewhere.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    Dadge said:

    LT is one of the greatest political enigmas of our age. Hopefully her defeat will let her unwind from the mental tangle she got herself into. Either that or she ends up as a sad sideshow on GB News.

    Trump Aid?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,239
    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cicero said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    Lab vote share now 34.2% - and still falling.

    Gracious! No opinion poll has them that low?
    A landslide on a bare third of the vote. FPTP must go.
    Well Labour won't be opening up that can of worms in the next five years but who knows what happens in 2029.
    They would be mad not to.
    This result is one that could fall away very easily, especially if they make all the mistakes they've been promising in their manifesto.

    But - electoral reform would make that collapse quicker and more certain as it would rob them of tactical votes.
    True on your first point although it also gives Labour votes it can squeeze the next time, just as the Tories can squeeze Reform.

    Conservatives also fragile. They got more seats than expected. But given how well the Lib Dems have done, the Tories are only a couple of percentage points away from being the third party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Where are the 20 seats left ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Steve Baker loses Wycombe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Chickened out of a speech. Graceless to the end.

    And she killed the queen.

    Many returning officers only permit the winner to make a speech, maybe it was not her choice?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Pulpstar said:

    Where are the 20 seats left ?

    4-5 in Scotland, 1 in NI, a couple in Cornwall and a couple in Devon, among others.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,815

    The Tories could do worse than Cleverly. A lot worse …

    ..and sadly, I am confident they will.
    I'm not sure how.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    I'm up £1,322.27 on initial calcs.

    It may be higher if I remembered to put on Harrow East and West Dorset. Hills website still down so I can't check.

    Most of my bets came in, which is pleasing.

    Well done !
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 100
    Labours vote share is below what it was in 1992
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    You can now drive from Ilfracombe to Eastbourne within Libdem constituencies throughout.

    It's the golden arch.

  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Chickened out of a speech. Graceless to the end.

    And she killed the queen.

    Nothing quite loses a girl the mandate of heaven like slaughtering a beloved monarch
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890

    The Tories could do worse than Cleverly. A lot worse …

    ..and sadly, I am confident they will.
    I'm not sure how.
    Jenrick for Leader !!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,691

    I'm up £1,322.27 on initial calcs.

    It may be higher if I remembered to put on Harrow East and West Dorset. Hills website still down so I can't check.

    Most of my bets came in, which is pleasing.

    Oh great, I did on Harrow East so it's £1,362.27. Cool.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Ref still favourite to get 5-6 seats.

    Not sure which one still to come they are expected to win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Lib Dems hit 70.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Why is North Herefordshire so Green? Looks like a typical leafy shire kind of place.

    If that sort of area is now ripe for Tory collapse the future recovery nationwide could be harder than they think.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,124
    still nothing from Wycombe, Chesham and Amersham or Beaconsfield.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Congrats to Starmer a massive win.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    kle4 said:

    Why is North Herefordshire so Green? Looks like a typical leafy shire kind of place.

    If that sort of area is now ripe for Tory collapse the future recovery nationwide could be harder than they think.

    Leaves are green.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Mel Stride wins Central Devon by 61 votes!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Just spotted an unexpected Tory hold — Stockton West.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001519
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    MikeL said:

    Ref still favourite to get 5-6 seats.

    Not sure which one still to come they are expected to win.

    South Basildpn and Thurrock?
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,022
    Tory wipeout on Cornwall.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Where's Reform getting the extra seat from ?
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited July 5
    @robfordmancs

    Four Con Prime Ministers' seats just fell in exactly one hour:

    5.52 - David Cameron's former seat of Witney falls to Lib Dems
    6.36 - Theresa May's former seat of Maidenhead falls to Lib Dems
    6.47 - Liz Truss loses her seat of South West Norfolk
    6.52 - Boris Johnson's former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip falls to Labour
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    Con will be short of 130
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    MikeL said:

    Truss walks off without a speech.

    I remember a lot of defeated Tories doing that in 1997, although not of course Portillo.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,124
    Pulpstar said:

    St Ives to come which must be a LD cert.

    Farnham possibly too
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,022
    Blimey, Holden won by 20 votes.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    I almost didn't get round to putting any bets on, but I did bet £100 on Labour 400-449 seats at 2.2 so that's something for the holiday fund.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Can't we swap Sue-Ellen for Penny?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    MikeL said:

    Ref still favourite to get 5-6 seats.

    Not sure which one still to come they are expected to win.

    Can't work it out either. Basildon and thurrock seems the likely shout, as exit poll win predictor had it as a 33% con hold / 33% lab gain. By implication that's 33% RFM through the middle. I'm on RFM 3-4 seats.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,721
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    It's not "Where the hell is Matt?", but "Where the hell is Lettuce Liz?"

    Matt has just cracked open his wine to toast the political death of Mark Harper.

    And I will keep a half glass for Liz Truss.

    I'm actually a bit sad about that. I knew him quite well at one time and although he was a dud minister he is a decent enough person and a hardworking MP.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    For Tories plotting recovery just aim to do better than the increase in 2001, and go from there.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,592
    edited July 5
    Cicero said:

    Pulpstar said:

    St Ives to come which must be a LD cert.

    Farnham possibly too
    And Chesham & Amersham.
    Recount in Inverness, Skye etc. !

    St Ives came in a while ago.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    You know what, I'll take that as the LDs at double digits having been a value bet. Tories very lucky with how the vote split.


  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con hold Farnham & Bordon
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    This is an almost perfect result based on the polling we had, from my pov. Tory / Ref vote share could have been slightly less efficient, but I’ll take this. Labour has won a majority, but they already look bloodied by the left.

    The story will be about Refs vote share and the Tory collapse, but lots of Labour MPs and voters might be muttering that if Labour had been just a bit more considerate about their base, this majority could be bigger. Labour could not have done anything to convince the RefUK or Tory voters to vote for them - there was a lot they could have done to convince Green and Indy voters to vote for them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Exmouth & Exeter East stays Tory by 121 votes over Labour.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001232
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Stride hangs on by 61 votes
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945

    Con will be short of 130

    127 was my forecast.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Salisbury

    Con 17110
    Lab 13303
    LD 11825
    Ref 5235
    Grn 2115

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001460
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    hope none of you got on my con north cornwall tip - Scott Mann just took a HELL of a beating
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    Con will be short of 130

    127 was my forecast.
    Won't be far off. My SNP 31 prediction is making me look like a complete chump.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,815
    DavidL said:

    Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.

    Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,592
    148grss said:

    This is an almost perfect result based on the polling we had, from my pov. Tory / Ref vote share could have been slightly less efficient, but I’ll take this. Labour has won a majority, but they already look bloodied by the left.

    The story will be about Refs vote share and the Tory collapse, but lots of Labour MPs and voters might be muttering that if Labour had been just a bit more considerate about their base, this majority could be bigger. Labour could not have done anything to convince the RefUK or Tory voters to vote for them - there was a lot they could have done to convince Green and Indy voters to vote for them.

    No, if Starmer had given an inch to the pro-Hamas mob, it would have cost him dozens of gains.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    15 left.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,168
    Quincel said:

    You know what, I'll take that as the LDs at double digits having been a value bet. Tories very lucky with how the vote split.


    Labour very unlucky in Devon really - missed Central Devon by even less, and weren't that far off in SW Devon. Gained Mercer's seat but basically restricted to Plymouth and Exeter city bases.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,691
    Andy_JS said:

    Con will be short of 130

    127 was my forecast.
    Great work.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited July 5
    Lab now 33.9% UK share.

    Broadcasters saying 35% but that's GB.

    The Betfair band 32% to 33.99% is now hot favourite!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    DavidL said:

    Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.

    Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
    Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Sittingbourne and Sheppey

    Lab 11,919
    Con 11,564
    Ref 10,512
    Swale Ind 3,238
    Grn 1,692
    LD 1,321

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001474
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Pulpstar said:

    15 left.

    Alright, which loser will be last? St Ives and the outlying islands are all in, so no excuses.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    There's a small chance the lead in vote share may be less than 10%. I wanted to bet on that but couldn't find any markets.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    The talk is of Reform pulling the Tories right but there will be smaller but not insignificant tug on the Labour Party by the Greens. Ah well. What do I know?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,612

    DavidL said:

    Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.

    Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
    The Conservatives drove the center off under Johnson, and then drove the right off under Sunak. It was the worst of all worlds for them.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376

    ..

    bobbob said:

    Labours vote share is below what it was in 1992

    I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
    Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,919
    So the maximum number of government ministers is 109.

    That means that you could in theory need most of the Tory Parliamentary Party to shadow.

    Going to be some job sharing going on…
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,124
    Very interesting percentages with only a few left to declare: Labour 34%, Tory 23.6%m Reform 14.3 % Lib Dem 12.2% Green 6.8%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    In a changing world some things remain the same. Steve Baker is an arse.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:

    This is an almost perfect result based on the polling we had, from my pov. Tory / Ref vote share could have been slightly less efficient, but I’ll take this. Labour has won a majority, but they already look bloodied by the left.

    The story will be about Refs vote share and the Tory collapse, but lots of Labour MPs and voters might be muttering that if Labour had been just a bit more considerate about their base, this majority could be bigger. Labour could not have done anything to convince the RefUK or Tory voters to vote for them - there was a lot they could have done to convince Green and Indy voters to vote for them.

    No, if Starmer had given an inch to the pro-Hamas mob, it would have cost him dozens of gains.
    No it wouldn’t have - these Independents wouldn’t have won, for starters, and they may have held Bristol Central. All he had to do was be somewhat more reasonable - go the line of 10/7 was horrific but what Israel is doing in response is unacceptable and the UN should be listened to. That’s hardly radical - and instead he went the other way and said Israel had the right to turn off the water and power to civilians! More people are sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians than you think - and it’s clear from this election.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,942
    edited July 5
    Over 24 hours later, still up, still wide awake and partying.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Oxfordshire is Tory-free.

    I can't believe we picked up all four of our targets: Didcot & Wantage, Henley & Thame, Bicester & Woodstock, and even Witney!

    Incredible. The house that Brexit built.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    edited July 5
    My initial notes (transport later):

    - The exit poll seems to have declared results quite well on the big numbers.

    - I seem to be several hundred £££ up. I may have missed out on Reform vote - I am only covered to 16%.

    - So excited about waking up to the news that I lost my spectacles, and a middle-aged man without his spectacles is less use than a Pobble without his toes.

    - Where's my Aunt Jobiska with her feast of eggs and butterflies fried with fish?

    - Amazing Lib Dem result, with a lot of majorities over 12k. We need a header about Ed Davey's future - what a change from 6 months ago when he was a boring old fart who needed to stand down. I'd say they now need the experience, and when he does go it will be to be partly a constituency fortification mentor.

    - Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire have done what I predicted back in April. Total Tory wipeout except Jenrick and the Leeanderthal Man. Not happy with my new MP.

    - Greens better than I expected at 4.

    - I am not sure whether Tories or SNP have suffered the greater meltdown.

    - Scottish Independence off the agenda for a generation. Which, judging by the words of Swinney, was about 90 minutes.

    - Turnover looks squeaky for those betting around the 60% number.

    - Expelled Tories are a Sunk cost for the rest of us; not a group to have time wasted on them. There's too much to do looking ahead.

    - Things will start moving VERY fast now.

    Among smalls and sectarians.

    - The Gallowazzock is gone until next time he resurfaces. Good.

    - Disappointed that Corbyn made it.

    - Delighted that Jody Mcintyre did not make it and Jess Philips did, even if it was close. Fifteen years ago he was thrown off the Christian Aid magazine as a columnist for antiosemitic content.

    - Sir K has a new Gaza-talking essentially racist caucus to manage, I suspect. Tricky line to walk.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,815
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.

    Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
    Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
    Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,360
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.

    Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
    Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
    Sorry but it was completely false, they wouldn't have won even if they'd have saved more they'd have simply lost less badly.

    But to win you need a big tent and Farage and his Putinist scum have a tiny tent. The Tories have done much worse than Labour but mammothly better than the Putinist rabble.

    If the Tories follow on this defeat by chasing after Farage, then they deserve to lose even worse next time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,592
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    15 left.

    Alright, which loser will be last? St Ives and the outlying islands are all in, so no excuses.
    Well, Inverness Skye etc. is even bigger and it's gone to a recount!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376

    Truss so busy saving the West she forgot to save her seat.

    LOL! 😂
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,022
    Steve Baker absolutely hitting nail on head on ITV bout housing.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Theme song for the next three years in the Conservative Party:

    Things Can Only Get Bitter
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,452

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.

    Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
    Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
    Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
    She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Is outer London the best Tory area ?
  • CosmicCosmic Posts: 34
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.

    Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
    Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
    The problem as I see it is not the ideological position of the Conservatives, but their failure to actually deliver. Their manifesto had a lot for older and right wing voters, but nobody trusted them to deliver it.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Cicero said:

    Very interesting percentages with only a few left to declare: Labour 34%, Tory 23.6%m Reform 14.3 % Lib Dem 12.2% Green 6.8%

    Lab / LD / Green at 50%+ and Tory/Ref at 38%? That would look good to me under PR.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,239

    DavidL said:

    Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.

    Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
    The Tories will most likely take your reading from the election.

    I wouldn't say the Tories were obsessed with the centre ground. They abandoned it by 2019, if not before.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited July 5

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.

    Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
    Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
    Sorry but it was completely false, they wouldn't have won even if they'd have saved more they'd have simply lost less badly.

    But to win you need a big tent and Farage and his Putinist scum have a tiny tent. The Tories have done much worse than Labour but mammothly better than the Putinist rabble.

    If the Tories follow on this defeat by chasing after Farage, then they deserve to lose even worse next time.
    I think chasing Farage will lose them more next time, but if Reform had been blunted without going full Putin they could have salvaged more this time.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    MattW said:

    My initial notes (transport later):

    - The exit poll seems to have declared results quite well on the big numbers.

    - I seem to be several hundred £££ up. I may have missed out on Reform vote - I am only covered to 16%.

    - So excited about waking up to the news that I lost my spectacles, and a middle-aged man without his spectacles is less use than a Pobble without his toes.

    - Where's my Aunt Jobiska with her feast of eggs and butterflies fried with fish?

    - Amazing Lib Dem result, with a lot of majorities over 12k.

    - Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire have done what I predicted back in April. Total Tory wipeout except Jenrick and the Leeanderthal Man.

    - Greens better than I expected at 4.

    - I am not sure whether Tories or SNP have suffered the greater meltdown.

    - Scottish Independence off the agenda for a generation. Which, judging by the words of Swinney, was about 90 minutes.

    - Turnover looks squeaky for those betting around the 60% number.

    - Things will start moving VERY fast now.

    Among smalls and sectarians.

    - The Gallowazzock is gone until next time he resurfaces. Good.

    - Disappointed that Corbyn made it.

    - Delighted that Jody Mcintyre did not make it and Jess Philips did, even if it was close. Fifteen years ago he was thrown off the Christian Aid magazine as a columnist for antiosemitic content.

    - Sir K has a new Gaza-talking essentially racist caucus to manage, I suspect. Tricky line to walk.

    Congrats on the wins, Matt.
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