LT is one of the greatest political enigmas of our age. Hopefully her defeat will let her unwind from the mental tangle she got herself into. Either that or she ends up as a sad sideshow on GB News.
Mr. grss, by that line of reasoning: What's the difference between 16 year old and 15 year olds voting? And 15 and 14? And 14 and 13?
I agree. I don’t think there should be an age threshold to vote - as long as you can and wish to vote, you should be allowed to. I don’t know what the rules are for those who are incapacitated due to age and proxy voting, but similar rules should be used for the young. One of my great grandparents was a non verbal Alzheimer’s patient for 10+ years - I don’t know if she had a proxy or not, but that doesn’t seem that different to a 3-4 year old to me.
A simple solution would be to allow anyone who passes the GCSE citizenship to vote. No age restrictions. Make the exam optional & free to sit.
No - there shouldn’t be a test for voting. You’d disenfranchise those with learning difficulties, those who may have physical disabilities that make it hard to do exams (blindness), and, of course, you could change the difficulty of the test to just make it a proxy for class.
Intellect and knowledge are not and should not be the basis for why people have a right to vote because that can quickly become a method of disenfranchisement based on income or class - and therefore any age limit is arbitrary. The only test should be desire and willingness to vote. And children and young people can do that just as well as the old.
It is worth remembering that less than four years ago we were all talking about how Starmer and Davey would fare badly in an election because all they offered was boring competence.
Maybe Sunak should have tried some of that rather than pandering to London-centric nutcases with small brains and massive egos.
The Conservative performance has been so woeful that even their eleventh hour "supermajority" nonsense would appear to have bolstered Farage with no net benefit to themselves.
The clamour for Ref-Con alliance is inevitable. The Conservative Party under Johnson, Truss and Sunak have fed the monster that is Farage and he is about to consume them. Last night Zahawi was on about what barstewards Labour were whilst stroking the Reform cat.
LT is one of the greatest political enigmas of our age. Hopefully her defeat will let her unwind from the mental tangle she got herself into. Either that or she ends up as a sad sideshow on GB News.
A landslide on a bare third of the vote. FPTP must go.
Well Labour won't be opening up that can of worms in the next five years but who knows what happens in 2029.
They would be mad not to.
This result is one that could fall away very easily, especially if they make all the mistakes they've been promising in their manifesto.
But - electoral reform would make that collapse quicker and more certain as it would rob them of tactical votes.
True on your first point although it also gives Labour votes it can squeeze the next time, just as the Tories can squeeze Reform.
Conservatives also fragile. They got more seats than expected. But given how well the Lib Dems have done, the Tories are only a couple of percentage points away from being the third party.
Truss’ expression when the results were read out was one I have never seen before on a human being. It was like some sort of early approximation of emotion in a prototype android built by an apprentice.
Four Con Prime Ministers' seats just fell in exactly one hour:
5.52 - David Cameron's former seat of Witney falls to Lib Dems 6.36 - Theresa May's former seat of Maidenhead falls to Lib Dems 6.47 - Liz Truss loses her seat of South West Norfolk 6.52 - Boris Johnson's former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip falls to Labour
Not sure which one still to come they are expected to win.
Can't work it out either. Basildon and thurrock seems the likely shout, as exit poll win predictor had it as a 33% con hold / 33% lab gain. By implication that's 33% RFM through the middle. I'm on RFM 3-4 seats.
It's not "Where the hell is Matt?", but "Where the hell is Lettuce Liz?"
Matt has just cracked open his wine to toast the political death of Mark Harper.
And I will keep a half glass for Liz Truss.
I'm actually a bit sad about that. I knew him quite well at one time and although he was a dud minister he is a decent enough person and a hardworking MP.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
This is an almost perfect result based on the polling we had, from my pov. Tory / Ref vote share could have been slightly less efficient, but I’ll take this. Labour has won a majority, but they already look bloodied by the left.
The story will be about Refs vote share and the Tory collapse, but lots of Labour MPs and voters might be muttering that if Labour had been just a bit more considerate about their base, this majority could be bigger. Labour could not have done anything to convince the RefUK or Tory voters to vote for them - there was a lot they could have done to convince Green and Indy voters to vote for them.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
This is an almost perfect result based on the polling we had, from my pov. Tory / Ref vote share could have been slightly less efficient, but I’ll take this. Labour has won a majority, but they already look bloodied by the left.
The story will be about Refs vote share and the Tory collapse, but lots of Labour MPs and voters might be muttering that if Labour had been just a bit more considerate about their base, this majority could be bigger. Labour could not have done anything to convince the RefUK or Tory voters to vote for them - there was a lot they could have done to convince Green and Indy voters to vote for them.
No, if Starmer had given an inch to the pro-Hamas mob, it would have cost him dozens of gains.
You know what, I'll take that as the LDs at double digits having been a value bet. Tories very lucky with how the vote split.
Labour very unlucky in Devon really - missed Central Devon by even less, and weren't that far off in SW Devon. Gained Mercer's seat but basically restricted to Plymouth and Exeter city bases.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
The talk is of Reform pulling the Tories right but there will be smaller but not insignificant tug on the Labour Party by the Greens. Ah well. What do I know?
Why is North Herefordshire so Green? Looks like a typical leafy shire kind of place.
If that sort of area is now ripe for Tory collapse the future recovery nationwide could be harder than they think.
Shit in the Wye & Lugg, bluntly. (Phosphates as well as shit, to be fair.)
A lot of the LibDem advance in Oxfordshire has been helped by the shit in the Thames. Thames Water and their compatriots did as much to lose this election for the Tories as Reform did.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
The Conservatives drove the center off under Johnson, and then drove the right off under Sunak. It was the worst of all worlds for them.
This is an almost perfect result based on the polling we had, from my pov. Tory / Ref vote share could have been slightly less efficient, but I’ll take this. Labour has won a majority, but they already look bloodied by the left.
The story will be about Refs vote share and the Tory collapse, but lots of Labour MPs and voters might be muttering that if Labour had been just a bit more considerate about their base, this majority could be bigger. Labour could not have done anything to convince the RefUK or Tory voters to vote for them - there was a lot they could have done to convince Green and Indy voters to vote for them.
No, if Starmer had given an inch to the pro-Hamas mob, it would have cost him dozens of gains.
No it wouldn’t have - these Independents wouldn’t have won, for starters, and they may have held Bristol Central. All he had to do was be somewhat more reasonable - go the line of 10/7 was horrific but what Israel is doing in response is unacceptable and the UN should be listened to. That’s hardly radical - and instead he went the other way and said Israel had the right to turn off the water and power to civilians! More people are sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians than you think - and it’s clear from this election.
- The exit poll seems to have declared results quite well on the big numbers.
- I seem to be several hundred £££ up. I may have missed out on Reform vote - I am only covered to 16%.
- So excited about waking up to the news that I lost my spectacles, and a middle-aged man without his spectacles is less use than a Pobble without his toes.
- Where's my Aunt Jobiska with her feast of eggs and butterflies fried with fish?
- Amazing Lib Dem result, with a lot of majorities over 12k. We need a header about Ed Davey's future - what a change from 6 months ago when he was a boring old fart who needed to stand down. I'd say they now need the experience, and when he does go it will be to be partly a constituency fortification mentor.
- Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire have done what I predicted back in April. Total Tory wipeout except Jenrick and the Leeanderthal Man. Not happy with my new MP.
- Greens better than I expected at 4.
- I am not sure whether Tories or SNP have suffered the greater meltdown.
- Scottish Independence off the agenda for a generation. Which, judging by the words of Swinney, was about 90 minutes.
- Turnover looks squeaky for those betting around the 60% number.
- Expelled Tories are a Sunk cost for the rest of us; not a group to have time wasted on them. There's too much to do looking ahead.
- Things will start moving VERY fast now.
Among smalls and sectarians.
- The Gallowazzock is gone until next time he resurfaces. Good.
- Disappointed that Corbyn made it.
- Delighted that Jody Mcintyre did not make it and Jess Philips did, even if it was close. Fifteen years ago he was thrown off the Christian Aid magazine as a columnist for antiosemitic content.
- Sir K has a new Gaza-talking essentially racist caucus to manage, I suspect. Tricky line to walk.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Sorry but it was completely false, they wouldn't have won even if they'd have saved more they'd have simply lost less badly.
But to win you need a big tent and Farage and his Putinist scum have a tiny tent. The Tories have done much worse than Labour but mammothly better than the Putinist rabble.
If the Tories follow on this defeat by chasing after Farage, then they deserve to lose even worse next time.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
The problem as I see it is not the ideological position of the Conservatives, but their failure to actually deliver. Their manifesto had a lot for older and right wing voters, but nobody trusted them to deliver it.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
The Tories will most likely take your reading from the election.
I wouldn't say the Tories were obsessed with the centre ground. They abandoned it by 2019, if not before.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Sorry but it was completely false, they wouldn't have won even if they'd have saved more they'd have simply lost less badly.
But to win you need a big tent and Farage and his Putinist scum have a tiny tent. The Tories have done much worse than Labour but mammothly better than the Putinist rabble.
If the Tories follow on this defeat by chasing after Farage, then they deserve to lose even worse next time.
I think chasing Farage will lose them more next time, but if Reform had been blunted without going full Putin they could have salvaged more this time.
- The exit poll seems to have declared results quite well on the big numbers.
- I seem to be several hundred £££ up. I may have missed out on Reform vote - I am only covered to 16%.
- So excited about waking up to the news that I lost my spectacles, and a middle-aged man without his spectacles is less use than a Pobble without his toes.
- Where's my Aunt Jobiska with her feast of eggs and butterflies fried with fish?
- Amazing Lib Dem result, with a lot of majorities over 12k.
- Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire have done what I predicted back in April. Total Tory wipeout except Jenrick and the Leeanderthal Man.
- Greens better than I expected at 4.
- I am not sure whether Tories or SNP have suffered the greater meltdown.
- Scottish Independence off the agenda for a generation. Which, judging by the words of Swinney, was about 90 minutes.
- Turnover looks squeaky for those betting around the 60% number.
- Things will start moving VERY fast now.
Among smalls and sectarians.
- The Gallowazzock is gone until next time he resurfaces. Good.
- Disappointed that Corbyn made it.
- Delighted that Jody Mcintyre did not make it and Jess Philips did, even if it was close. Fifteen years ago he was thrown off the Christian Aid magazine as a columnist for antiosemitic content.
- Sir K has a new Gaza-talking essentially racist caucus to manage, I suspect. Tricky line to walk.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001326
I'd love a candidate to stand up there and rant at the electorate, telling them they're wrong. They'd be wrong to do so but it would be funny.
And she killed the queen.
Intellect and knowledge are not and should not be the basis for why people have a right to vote because that can quickly become a method of disenfranchisement based on income or class - and therefore any age limit is arbitrary. The only test should be desire and willingness to vote. And children and young people can do that just as well as the old.
The clamour for Ref-Con alliance is inevitable. The Conservative Party under Johnson, Truss and Sunak have fed the monster that is Farage and he is about to consume them. Last night Zahawi was on about what barstewards Labour were whilst stroking the Reform cat.
Granted local circumstances cannot be repeated elsewhere.
Conservatives also fragile. They got more seats than expected. But given how well the Lib Dems have done, the Tories are only a couple of percentage points away from being the third party.
It may be higher if I remembered to put on Harrow East and West Dorset. Hills website still down so I can't check.
Most of my bets came in, which is pleasing.
I can't believe we picked up all four of our targets: Didcot & Wantage, Henley & Thame, Bicester & Woodstock, and even Witney!
Not sure which one still to come they are expected to win.
If that sort of area is now ripe for Tory collapse the future recovery nationwide could be harder than they think.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001519
Four Con Prime Ministers' seats just fell in exactly one hour:
5.52 - David Cameron's former seat of Witney falls to Lib Dems
6.36 - Theresa May's former seat of Maidenhead falls to Lib Dems
6.47 - Liz Truss loses her seat of South West Norfolk
6.52 - Boris Johnson's former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip falls to Labour
Recount in Inverness, Skye etc. !
St Ives came in a while ago.
The story will be about Refs vote share and the Tory collapse, but lots of Labour MPs and voters might be muttering that if Labour had been just a bit more considerate about their base, this majority could be bigger. Labour could not have done anything to convince the RefUK or Tory voters to vote for them - there was a lot they could have done to convince Green and Indy voters to vote for them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001232
Con 17110
Lab 13303
LD 11825
Ref 5235
Grn 2115
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001460
Broadcasters saying 35% but that's GB.
The Betfair band 32% to 33.99% is now hot favourite!
Lab 11,919
Con 11,564
Ref 10,512
Swale Ind 3,238
Grn 1,692
LD 1,321
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001474
We have recalled Agent Truss from the field, her work is complete.
A lot of the LibDem advance in Oxfordshire has been helped by the shit in the Thames. Thames Water and their compatriots did as much to lose this election for the Tories as Reform did.
That means that you could in theory need most of the Tory Parliamentary Party to shadow.
Going to be some job sharing going on…
- The exit poll seems to have declared results quite well on the big numbers.
- I seem to be several hundred £££ up. I may have missed out on Reform vote - I am only covered to 16%.
- So excited about waking up to the news that I lost my spectacles, and a middle-aged man without his spectacles is less use than a Pobble without his toes.
- Where's my Aunt Jobiska with her feast of eggs and butterflies fried with fish?
- Amazing Lib Dem result, with a lot of majorities over 12k. We need a header about Ed Davey's future - what a change from 6 months ago when he was a boring old fart who needed to stand down. I'd say they now need the experience, and when he does go it will be to be partly a constituency fortification mentor.
- Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire have done what I predicted back in April. Total Tory wipeout except Jenrick and the Leeanderthal Man. Not happy with my new MP.
- Greens better than I expected at 4.
- I am not sure whether Tories or SNP have suffered the greater meltdown.
- Scottish Independence off the agenda for a generation. Which, judging by the words of Swinney, was about 90 minutes.
- Turnover looks squeaky for those betting around the 60% number.
- Expelled Tories are a Sunk cost for the rest of us; not a group to have time wasted on them. There's too much to do looking ahead.
- Things will start moving VERY fast now.
Among smalls and sectarians.
- The Gallowazzock is gone until next time he resurfaces. Good.
- Disappointed that Corbyn made it.
- Delighted that Jody Mcintyre did not make it and Jess Philips did, even if it was close. Fifteen years ago he was thrown off the Christian Aid magazine as a columnist for antiosemitic content.
- Sir K has a new Gaza-talking essentially racist caucus to manage, I suspect. Tricky line to walk.
But to win you need a big tent and Farage and his Putinist scum have a tiny tent. The Tories have done much worse than Labour but mammothly better than the Putinist rabble.
If the Tories follow on this defeat by chasing after Farage, then they deserve to lose even worse next time.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001523
Things Can Only Get Bitter
I wouldn't say the Tories were obsessed with the centre ground. They abandoned it by 2019, if not before.