I've just discovered that the Labour candidate who defeated Liz Truss did so with the lowest winning vote share ever for a victorious Labour MP - 26.7% (previous lowest was 31.1%)
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
Yet her mantra of economic growth has been forced on to the agenda and is often touted as a Labour priority, despite them having no clue how to make it happen.
But neither did she. Just saying "growth" all the time doesn't generate growth.
Hmm. My seat, Leeds South West and Morley, had something like a notional 10.5k majority for Andrea Jenkyns. Lab got 17.6k votes, she got 9.2k, Reform got 8.1k.
Back when UKIP racked up a lot of votes, in 2015, they got around 6-7k here (different constituency boundaries, mind). If the Conservatives don't make up some ground next time, this might be the sort of seat Reform focus on.
Priti is done. We have left Hendon, Poole, Bham Perry Barr and S. Basildon &c in England. Dumfriesshire &C, D&G, Angus&Glens and Inverness &C in Scotland and East Derry in NI
You? Of all people? Wowzers. I had you down of those there SKS Fans. If he’s lost you he’s doomed.
I just won £1,400 on the back of my analysis.
You?
Can't fault you logic - the Labour vote has been incredibly efficient but there aren't massive majorities anywhere.
Reform are currently spoilers - I need to get the data but there are a large number of seats where Reform scored more votes than the margin of victory and in a lot of those seats were Reform not to have been involved the Tories would have won.
Jeremy Vine just mentioned "Extinction-Level Event". I think he's just outed himself as a PB reader.
He does follow me on Twitter - amongst 16,000 others, and during the election campaign I have taken to posting a few witty snippets from the comments (with a link).
Very interesting percentages with only a few left to declare: Labour 34%, Tory 23.6%m Reform 14.3 % Lib Dem 12.2% Green 6.8%
The Labour vote is really low, certainly compared to the polling over the last month. But, as Maggie showed in the 1980s, if your opponent vote is split you can win very big.
Maggie always got over 40% with all her wins?
Yes, but her majorities were flattered by the split between the Alliance and Labour. The split between the Tories and Reform has made the Labour vote extremely efficient.
Labour's majority is flattered by the split between Tories and Reform.
Hmm. My seat, Leeds South West and Morley, had something like a notional 10.5k majority for Andrea Jenkyns. Lab got 17.6k votes, she got 9.2k, Reform got 8.1k.
Back when UKIP racked up a lot of votes, in 2015, they got around 6-7k here (different constituency boundaries, mind). If the Conservatives don't make up some ground next time, this might be the sort of seat Reform focus on.
Just woke up to a slightly odd looking picture compared to when I turned in around 2am. A bit of head scratching for Sir John perhaps? Not used to "exit poll a bit wrong shocker ", I guess Labour and SNP pretty bob on but Tory and Reform and LD not so. To be fair he did seem sceptical himself about it right at the start.
I turned in thinking we'd have a centre right bloc of near 160 (Tory/Ref/Ulster) but that's just not come off.
And yet from briefest dip into some results near me it's agonising to see good decent Tories I liked coming so close to hanging on and certain to have won without Farage stinking the election out.
Surely would have been a hung parliament if he'd not returned?
Gutted but at least the worst didn't befall the Tories, just not as "less bad" as it appeared at 10pm.
410+ seats on 35pc though and already net unpopularity before you enter No 10. No basis for a strong Starmer premiership I think. 2029 is still game on even if the headline stats don't imply that.
You are foolishly assuming RedWall Reform voters would have stuck with the Tories. They hate the Tories. They would have voted Labour or stayed at home.
Sunak's last minute "supermajority" voter suppression tactics to keep Labour voters at home has also bolstered Farage.
You? Of all people? Wowzers. I had you down of those there SKS Fans. If he’s lost you he’s doomed.
I just won £1,400 on the back of my analysis.
You?
Better than that but, with due respect, I’m more successful (not to mention better looking and better endowed) than you so my stakes are higher. A good night for me overall but I’m not going to embarrass you with figures. Life’s tough enough for you as it is.
LDs currently have a corridor running from Henley to North Devon, a few further results their way and they could extend that into Cornwall and all the way into Wimbledon (though they'd need to win Maidenhead or 3 other seats to go around it).
It's the Orange strip separating the South from the Midlands.
They have Maidenhead.
One hopes their pavement politics can sort out the anti-wheelchair chicane barriers installed on the Summerleaze Footbridge, on I think the Thames Path, in 2022.
I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
Labour lost big in previously safe Labour seats to the pro-Gazan protest vote, including Greens..
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
No one crying, but some of us are just pointing out this is a very, very odd result and it's highly unlikely Labour will be able to repeat this result or anything close to it in 2029.
That said, of course it's a moment of celebration for Labour and SKS, so well done and enjoy!
It doesn't feel like 1997. The spectre of Farage is worrysome.
Blair got 44.4%, Starmer has polled 34%
I don't know why you are fixated on the percentage. The system doesn't work like that. Perhaps it should, but the voting patterns again would have been different. An unfair system was fairly gamed.
Congratulations by the way for your sterling work overnight keeping us informed of the comings and goings as they happened. Well done!
it feels a bit churlish but I’m kinda glad that SKS missed the Blair 1997 total (though only just). I think it will be better for history that that record stands.
South Basildon - Reform 120 votes ahead, going to full recount ar 2pm!
So looks like Reform will get 5 (6 including TUV (North Antrim - they applied to stand on a joint TUV/Reform ticket in NI but rejected by electoral commission).
I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
Labour lost big in previously safe Labour seats to the pro-Gazan protest vote, including Greens..
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
No one crying, but some of us are just pointing out this is a very, very odd result and it's highly unlikely Labour will be able to repeat this result or anything close to it in 2029.
That said, of course it's a moment of celebration for Labour and SKS, so well done and enjoy!
It doesn't feel like 1997. The spectre of Farage is worrysome.
Blair got 44.4%, Starmer has polled 34%
I don't know why you are fixated on the percentage. The system doesn't work like that. Perhaps it should, but the voting patterns again would have been different. An unfair system was fairly gamed.
Congratulations by the way for your sterling work overnight keeping us informed of the comings and goings as they happened. Well done!
PB is an awesome resource on days like today.
I think it's reasonable to use it as an indicator of relative favourability.
Sir John Curtice - This was an election that the Conservatives lost, rather than, with the exception of Scotland one which Labour won. Being in government is difficult and that was a problem for the SNP as well as the Conservatives.
LDs currently have a corridor running from Henley to North Devon, a few further results their way and they could extend that into Cornwall and all the way into Wimbledon (though they'd need to win Maidenhead or 3 other seats to go around it).
It's the Orange strip separating the South from the Midlands.
I quite fancy plotting out a LibDem Cycle Route following this corridor. The party does tend to win the prettiest parts of the country.
It would not take much of a future shift in votes, either for the Conservatives to vanish, or for Labour to lose 200-250 seats. Especially given how volatile the electorate is.
Both parties are like a snail on the edge of a knife.
And, in general, governments don’t get rewarded for getting things right. They get punished for getting things wrong.
It would not take much of a future shift in votes, either for the Conservatives to vanish, or for Labour to lose 200-250 seats. Especially given how volatile the electorate is.
Both parties are like a snail on the edge of a knife.
And, in general, governments don’t get rewarded for getting things right. They get punished for getting things wrong.
Yes. Neither of them can afford complacency in the next parliament.
Remaining seats should go as follows Angus - SNP Inverness- SNP or LD (LD think they have it, recount) 2 x borders - Con Poole, Hendon - Lab on recounts?? Or Con?? Perry Barr - Indy Bas and Thurr - Reform
You? Of all people? Wowzers. I had you down of those there SKS Fans. If he’s lost you he’s doomed.
I just won £1,400 on the back of my analysis.
You?
Can't fault you logic - the Labour vote has been incredibly efficient but there aren't massive majorities anywhere.
Reform are currently spoilers - I need to get the data but there are a large number of seats where Reform scored more votes than the margin of victory and in a lot of those seats were Reform not to have been involved the Tories would have won.
I don't believe that extrapolation is a given this election. The Tories were so despised for a number of reasons. Without Reform the protest vote would have gone elsewhere or stayed at home.
I've just discovered that the Labour candidate who defeated Liz Truss did so with the lowest winning vote share ever for a victorious Labour MP - 26.7% (previous lowest was 31.1%)
The rise of Reform UK has seen the winning share in lots of seats being low, often 30-something percent; sometimes, as here, lower.
Is 26.7% the lowest winning vote share in the whole country?
Who got the highest? The Speaker got 74.3% of their seat, but apart from that?
Remaining seats should go as follows Angus - SNP Inverness- SNP or LD (LD think they have it, recount) 2 x borders - Con Poole, Hendon - Lab on recounts?? Or Con?? Perry Barr - Indy Bas and Thurr - Reform
Worst bet I won? Tories to win over 100 seats, 1/4, placed at the start of the campaign. Best bet I lost? Reform to win 12-14% of the vote, 6/1, placed on eve of poll.
You? Of all people? Wowzers. I had you down of those there SKS Fans. If he’s lost you he’s doomed.
I just won £1,400 on the back of my analysis.
You?
Can't fault you logic - the Labour vote has been incredibly efficient but there aren't massive majorities anywhere.
Reform are currently spoilers - I need to get the data but there are a large number of seats where Reform scored more votes than the margin of victory and in a lot of those seats were Reform not to have been involved the Tories would have won.
Even if you transfer all Reform votes to Con (which is a stretch - IIRC the pollsters suggest that at least a third of Reform votes are ex-Labour?) do Labour come out with a workable majority? I suspect they do, this time, but haven’t run the numbers.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
Yet her mantra of economic growth has been forced on to the agenda and is often touted as a Labour priority, despite them having no clue how to make it happen.
Reeves appears to understand that growth comes from capital investments - housing, infrastructure, fixing planning so companies can expand & better jobs lead to growing national wealth.
Truss’ solution was to cut taxes & trigger a funding crisis for the UK government.
Identifying growth as the problem is trivial. How you go about getting it is what matters.
(Good morning to all btw & congrats to Labour on their historic victory.)
I rarely agree with you, or Labour, on economics but yes this is 100% right and this is why I lent Labour my vote.
Fix planning and we can have growth.
We see anti-growth arguments behind planning in our debates all the time. A common retort when I say I oppose NIMBYism is how I would feel if a factory was built near me?
The idea we should oppose factories being created represents everything wrong with the mentality in this country.
NB @BartholomewRoberts did you watch Tim Harford’s Channel4 documentary on the state of Britain this week (”Skint: The Truth About Britain’s Broken Economy”) ? I think you’d agree with a lot of it.
Stayed the course, did a lot of hard work to help bring the party back from the brink.
Loses to a Gaza candidate as labour come back to power.
And what about Streeting? He only won by 500.
Does he stay put? Risk of him losing his seat could impact his chances of being next leader.
Move if he has any sense. What Starmer and Reeves will have to do to win next time will cause howls of outrage in places like Ilford from the workshy, and the Gaza vote won't be back any time soon.
My prediction of 30 for Galloway wasnt as daft as it sounded (albeit that most of the votes went to Gallowayite independents)
You? Of all people? Wowzers. I had you down of those there SKS Fans. If he’s lost you he’s doomed.
I just won £1,400 on the back of my analysis.
You?
Better than that but, with due respect, I’m more successful (not to mention better looking and better endowed) than you so my stakes are higher. A good night for me overall but I’m not going to embarrass you with figures. Life’s tough enough for you as it is.
Honestly @DougSeal that reply makes you sounds like a complete knob. Which I don’t think you are
It must have been very close. They should lose that and East Antrim next time.
Given the vote shares in the Assembly elections should imply a fairly comfortable unionist win, I’m guessing that a lot of DUP voters must have switched to TUV, and a lot of SDLP votes to SF.
You? Of all people? Wowzers. I had you down of those there SKS Fans. If he’s lost you he’s doomed.
I just won £1,400 on the back of my analysis.
You?
Better than that but, with due respect, I’m more successful (not to mention better looking and better endowed) than you so my stakes are higher. A good night for me overall but I’m not going to embarrass you with figures. Life’s tough enough for you as it is.
Good morning all. So my forecasts. I said Labour 380 to 410. Lib Dems 60. The Tories 130 to 150. I did not do bad! Reform I said 10%of the vote. A bit out there! 63 or 65%, I said would vote. Out there as well. I did not do bad though! At least we did not need to suffer from polling for a bit.
Very different vibes on this site from the hubris manifest on 13th December 2019.
Irreconcilable Leavers gone Reform. Still a market of morons and fantasists, the malign and the leaden, for Farage’s magic beans. If Cameron had any shame he’d lie awake every night wailing at what he’s done to the Tory Party and this country. I’m sick of hearing about Farage. Our media, desperate for clicks, will spend the next five years circle jerking over his every spiteful utterance.
No doubt it’s going to be difficult for Starmer, but he seems to get that.
Stayed the course, did a lot of hard work to help bring the party back from the brink.
Loses to a Gaza candidate as labour come back to power.
And what about Streeting? He only won by 500.
Does he stay put? Risk of him losing his seat could impact his chances of being next leader.
Hadn’t spotted that. Labour have an issue potentially in future. Holding on in the cities where the Gaza vote hit them but also holding on in the red wall and the new red seats in the shires. A coalition as potentially fragile as the Tory one in 2019.
By next time, hopefully, the Gaza loons will be neutered as it won’t be an issue.
Israel has been inept in Gaza trying to defeat Hamas but it won’t take them another five years.
I wonder if this will affect votes for 16-17 year olds.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
Yet her mantra of economic growth has been forced on to the agenda and is often touted as a Labour priority, despite them having no clue how to make it happen.
...her mantra of economic growth
Quite right LuckyGuy. If only someone had thought of that mantra in, I don't know, 1850, imagine where we would be now.
And if only a few PMs had had that mantra in between, we could have had an empire on which the sun never sets.
What missed opportunities. If only we'd known more of the unique mantra that was Trussism.
You? Of all people? Wowzers. I had you down of those there SKS Fans. If he’s lost you he’s doomed.
I just won £1,400 on the back of my analysis.
You?
Can't fault you logic - the Labour vote has been incredibly efficient but there aren't massive majorities anywhere.
Reform are currently spoilers - I need to get the data but there are a large number of seats where Reform scored more votes than the margin of victory and in a lot of those seats were Reform not to have been involved the Tories would have won.
Even if you transfer all Reform votes to Con (which is a stretch - IIRC the pollsters suggest that at least a third of Reform votes are ex-Labour?) do Labour come out with a workable majority? I suspect they do, this time, but haven’t run the numbers.
I was going to operate a split of 2/3 tory / 1/3 Labour just to see what the impact was.
And my logic isn't that it would impact this election, it's the next one where Labour are going to have to work to create reasons for people to vote for them in 2028/9. Continue the current Government policies and Labour will be looking at 25% of the vote max at the next election...
The fact that elections have been cancelled and martial law imposed in Ukraine must have escaped his murine regard.
Presumably the fact that similar measures were implemented in the UK in the Second World War mean that actually we were the baddies.
I would not put it past him to make that case.
It used only to be neo-Nazis who argued there was little to distinguish the Allies from the Axis, but it’s a growing viewpoint on the extreme left. The horseshoe effect.
Good morning all. So my forecasts. I said Labour 380 to 410. Lib Dems 60. The Tories 130 to 150. I did not do bad! Reform I said 10%of the vote. A bit out there! 63 or 65%, I said would vote. Out there as well. I did not do bad though! At least we did not need to suffer from polling for a bit.
Results are much worse than I thought. No.late swing back to the Tories. EVEN Horsham has gone LD. Wow!
It would not take much of a future shift in votes, either for the Conservatives to vanish, or for Labour to lose 200-250 seats. Especially given how volatile the electorate is.
Both parties are like a snail on the edge of a knife.
And, in general, governments don’t get rewarded for getting things right. They get punished for getting things wrong.
Yes. Neither of them can afford complacency in the next parliament.
Very different vibes on this site from the hubris manifest on 13th December 2019.
Irreconcilable Leavers gone Reform. Still a market of morons and fantasists, the malign and the leaden, for Farage’s magic beans. If Cameron had any shame he’d lie awake every night wailing at what he’s done to the Tory Party and this country. I’m sick of hearing about Farage. Our media, desperate for clicks, will spend the next five years circle jerking over his every spiteful utterance.
No doubt it’s going to be difficult for Starmer, but he seems to get that.
Why would he lie awake at night because he respected a democratic imperative. The country voted to leave the EU.
Your ire should rather be directed at SKS who despite being on course for a humongous majority didn't have the strength of character not to rule out rejoining.
Chris Skidmore has identified the big reason the Tories lost.
“ When Rishi Sunak personally decided to row back on net zero and climate action, promoting new oil and gas and opening a new coalmine, I stated that this would become the greatest mistake of his premiership. It turns out it was also his greatest political error, as the party tonight lost not only in the “red wall” but across swathes of seats in the southern “blue wall”. Seats where voters believed the Conservatives cared about conserving our environment turned against Sunak’s hardline rhetoric.”
Good morning all. So my forecasts. I said Labour 380 to 410. Lib Dems 60. The Tories 130 to 150. I did not do bad! Reform I said 10%of the vote. A bit out there! 63 or 65%, I said would vote. Out there as well. I did not do bad though! At least we did not need to suffer from polling for a bit.
Results are much worse than I thought. No.late swing back to the Tories. EVEN Horsham has gone LD. Wow!
There's been an awful lot of swingback to the Tories - given they are on 25% and few pollsters had them at that level..
And I don't think any pollster did even vaguely well - who had Labour on 36% and Tories 25%?
Worst bet I won? Tories to win over 100 seats, 1/4, placed at the start of the campaign. Best bet I lost? Reform to win 12-14% of the vote, 6/1, placed on eve of poll.
Anyone else want to play?
Worst bet I won? Conservatives in IoW East placed early at near evens on on the basis the demographics were different, and it was thus value. Lucky to get away with it.
Best best I lost? Reform to win under 14% of the vote at 8/1
You? Of all people? Wowzers. I had you down of those there SKS Fans. If he’s lost you he’s doomed.
I just won £1,400 on the back of my analysis.
You?
Better than that but, with due respect, I’m more successful (not to mention better looking and better endowed) than you so my stakes are higher. A good night for me overall but I’m not going to embarrass you with figures. Life’s tough enough for you as it is.
Lol. Hilarious.
£1400 will be handy for half a term's VAT on the school fees mind.
I did fall asleep after the exit poll but within a couple of hours I logged on and may I begin by congratulating Keir Starmer on his landslide win and may he use it wisely over the next 5 years
I would also congratulate the Lib Dems for their spectacular success, and hope they will prove an effective opposition alongside the conservatives to labour
I am delighted the voters summarily exercised their democratic mandate by sending Truss, JRM, and others to political irrelevance
And as for the SNP their party is well and truely over
I hope the conservatives learn the lesson and do not move to accommodate Farage though I do expect some merging of policies
Farage has said this morning he is coming after Labour and if his actions in the EU are anything go by, he is likely to be a thorn in their side not least as the media seem to think he is their poster boy giving him far too much coverage
And finally PB was at its finest last night providing far more detailed and relevant information than any of the broadcaster, so a huge thank you to all those responsible for this unique political forum
You? Of all people? Wowzers. I had you down of those there SKS Fans. If he’s lost you he’s doomed.
I just won £1,400 on the back of my analysis.
You?
Can't fault you logic - the Labour vote has been incredibly efficient but there aren't massive majorities anywhere.
Reform are currently spoilers - I need to get the data but there are a large number of seats where Reform scored more votes than the margin of victory and in a lot of those seats were Reform not to have been involved the Tories would have won.
Even if you transfer all Reform votes to Con (which is a stretch - IIRC the pollsters suggest that at least a third of Reform votes are ex-Labour?) do Labour come out with a workable majority? I suspect they do, this time, but haven’t run the numbers.
I was going to operate a split of 2/3 tory / 1/3 Labour just to see what the impact was.
And my logic isn't that it would impact this election, it's the next one where Labour are going to have to work to create reasons for people to vote for them in 2028/9. Continue the current Government policies and Labour will be looking at 25% of the vote max at the next election...
Yes but next time Labour will have votes they can try to squeeze just as the Conservatives can hope to squeeze Reform. Worst case they can go into coalition with the Lib Dems. Unlikely a Conservative Party chasing the Reform vote could do that. The Labour vote is fragile but their options are at least as good as the Conservatives, as far as we can tell today.
Chris Skidmore has identified the big reason the Tories lost.
“ When Rishi Sunak personally decided to row back on net zero and climate action, promoting new oil and gas and opening a new coalmine, I stated that this would become the greatest mistake of his premiership. It turns out it was also his greatest political error, as the party tonight lost not only in the “red wall” but across swathes of seats in the southern “blue wall”. Seats where voters believed the Conservatives cared about conserving our environment turned against Sunak’s hardline rhetoric.”
I did fall asleep after the exit poll but within a couple of hours I logged on and may I begin by congratulating Keir Starmer on his landslide win and may he use it wisely over the next 5 years
I would also congratulate the Lib Dems for their spectacular success, and hope they will prove an effective opposition alongside the conservatives to labour
I am delighted the voters summarily exercised their democratic mandate by sending Truss, JRM, and others to political irrelevance
And as for the SNP their party is well and truely over
I hope the conservatives learn the lesson and do not move to accommodate Farage though I do expect some merging of policies
Farage has said this morning he is coming after Labour and if his actions in the EU are anything go by, he is likely to be a thorn in their side not least as the media seem to think he is their poster boy giving him far too much coverage
And finally PB was at its finest last night providing far more detailed and relevant information than any of the broadcaster, so a huge thank you to all those responsible for this unique political forum
Hats off particularly to TSE and AndyJS. Loads better than that ******' moron Kuenssberg!
A host of SNP big names have become victims of a remarkable cull of Nationalist politicians across Scotland in the General Election. Swathes of Nat MPs have lost their seats already with the party on course to be reduced to a rump of just eight seats, according to pollsters.
While the likes of Stephen Flynn and Pete Wishart hung on, Joanna Cherry and Alyn Smith were among those to lose out in Edinburgh South West and Stirling and Strathallan respectively. John Nicolson's defeat in Alloa and Grangemouth has been greeted with joy on social media where he emerged as the Nat MP people most wanted to lose their seat.
Worst bet I won? Tories to win over 100 seats, 1/4, placed at the start of the campaign. Best bet I lost? Reform to win 12-14% of the vote, 6/1, placed on eve of poll.
Anyone else want to play?
Worst bet I won? Conservatives in IoW East placed early at near evens on on the basis the demographics were different, and it was thus value. Lucky to get away with it.
Best best I lost? Reform to win under 14% of the vote at 8/1
Lucky to get away with that.
I only made one tenth what you did, but I risked much less.
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
You beat what's in front of you. It may be fair to point out Labour's voteshare is not super impressive, and even to suggest this could mean problems for them down the line. But 'has not won' is just stupid phrasing to get attention.
I think it's a good take. It means Labour have won by default - due to exhaustion of the existing administration- but haven't really won over anyone to their programme. Under 35% is derisory for a new administration looking to take over, and barely ahead of 2019GE in England.
1997 this is not.
Your second sentence doesn't seem to relate to the first. The second may indeed be a good take, but 'won by default' is a very very different take to 'Labour has not won' as quoted, which is just silly for the sake of being silly, and did not restrict to whether they had won people to their 'programme'.
It's won but mathematically so.
Remember what @MarqueeMark said at the start of the campaign about a Tory vote of 32% being in sight.
This could so easily have been a hung parliament. Which I bet is (as we'll no doubt find out through the full course of time) why Rishi called it.
Superb result for the Lib Dems. Delighted the SNP have been crushed (although the SNP could have done even worse if the Unionist vote had not been split by the Labour surge). Pleased Reform have significantly under performed in terms of seats. But Labour, just wow. They have completely dominated the centre ground and the Tories need to try and find their work back there.
Given the vote shares and seats, this is a fairly astonishing reading of events. If the Tories had been slightly less obsessed with 'the centre ground' Farage wouldn't have come back and they might have won!
Potentially true. If the centre was lost but the right recoverable (without driving off more of the centre) then it could have saved a lot.
Liz Truss had all the right ideas but none of the political nous. Sadly, unlike Mrs. T, she had no Willy. Sunak had none of the right ideas and none of the political nous either.
She had terrible ideas, and was found out *very* quickly.
Yet her mantra of economic growth has been forced on to the agenda and is often touted as a Labour priority, despite them having no clue how to make it happen.
Reeves appears to understand that growth comes from capital investments - housing, infrastructure, fixing planning so companies can expand & better jobs lead to growing national wealth.
Truss’ solution was to cut taxes & trigger a funding crisis for the UK government.
Identifying growth as the problem is trivial. How you go about getting it is what matters.
(Good morning to all btw & congrats to Labour on their historic victory.)
I rarely agree with you, or Labour, on economics but yes this is 100% right and this is why I lent Labour my vote.
Fix planning and we can have growth.
We see anti-growth arguments behind planning in our debates all the time. A common retort when I say I oppose NIMBYism is how I would feel if a factory was built near me?
The idea we should oppose factories being created represents everything wrong with the mentality in this country.
NB @BartholomewRoberts did you watch Tim Harford’s Channel4 documentary on the state of Britain this week (”Skint: The Truth About Britain’s Broken Economy”) ? I think you’d agree with a lot of it.
No I didn't, but reading about it, I think I'd agree with a lot of it, yes.
Everyone claims to want growth in the abstract, but too many people nowadays have a vested interest against growth when it is proposed. Whether that be opposing construction, or opposing induced demand.
How long until we can expect Rishi's resignation as leader of the Conservatives?
How long before we can expect Rishi's resignation as MP for Richmond?
By Sunday, if I was him, I'd be relaxing by the pool at my OC mansion enjoying diet Coke and sandwiches with my incredibly beautiful and wealthy wife.
As it's a seat even the tories couldn't contrive to lose in a by-election the competition for it will be fierce among the recently ejected. Maybe Truss? She claims to be from Yorkshire occasionally.
The Labour lead over Con is only 10%. How many polls came anywhere close to that?
The fact that the polls predicted a landslide and we got a landslide will mask some of this. But it was an absolute disaster for the pollsters. That can’t be stressed enough.
If the votes had fallen differently across the seats then this could easily have been a very slim Labour majority or even a HP. They’ve got lucky.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001281
@robfordmancs
I've just discovered that the Labour candidate who defeated Liz Truss did so with the lowest winning vote share ever for a victorious Labour MP - 26.7% (previous lowest was 31.1%)
Back when UKIP racked up a lot of votes, in 2015, they got around 6-7k here (different constituency boundaries, mind). If the Conservatives don't make up some ground next time, this might be the sort of seat Reform focus on.
Reform are currently spoilers - I need to get the data but there are a large number of seats where Reform scored more votes than the margin of victory and in a lot of those seats were Reform not to have been involved the Tories would have won.
Not that I'm claiming any credit, mind.
And it got 33.9%. Soft as baby food.
One hopes their pavement politics can sort out the anti-wheelchair chicane barriers installed on the Summerleaze Footbridge, on I think the Thames Path, in 2022.
Congratulations by the way for your sterling work overnight keeping us informed of the comings and goings as they happened. Well done!
PB is an awesome resource on days like today.
And importantly no fruitcakes elected.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001399
Both parties are like a snail on the edge of a knife.
And, in general, governments don’t get rewarded for getting things right. They get punished for getting things wrong.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001472
Angus - SNP
Inverness- SNP or LD (LD think they have it, recount)
2 x borders - Con
Poole, Hendon - Lab on recounts?? Or Con??
Perry Barr - Indy
Bas and Thurr - Reform
Stayed the course, did a lot of hard work to help bring the party back from the brink.
Loses to a Gaza candidate as labour come back to power.
Is 26.7% the lowest winning vote share in the whole country?
Who got the highest? The Speaker got 74.3% of their seat, but apart from that?
The Tories didn’t lose this election because they were too right wing on some issues or too left wing on others.
They lost because voters of all stripes judged them to be incompetent and dishonest.
https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1809103281009926147
Best bet I lost? Reform to win 12-14% of the vote, 6/1, placed on eve of poll.
Anyone else want to play?
It’s July, FFS!
Does he stay put? Risk of him losing his seat could impact his chances of being next leader.
LD 24422
Con 18971
Ref 5310
Lab 3502
Grn 1673
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001162
Sometimes things are paused during an existential fight. That doesn’t make you less democratic
Yet you never criticise Russia's so-called 'democracy'.
You are a fuckwit Walt.
Martial law imposed because they are literally at war, just as we did during WWII.
Ukrainians are fighting for the right to be a free democracy once more, that's exactly what he said.
My prediction of 30 for Galloway wasnt as daft as it sounded (albeit that most of the votes went to Gallowayite independents)
Irreconcilable Leavers gone Reform. Still a market of morons and fantasists, the malign and the leaden, for Farage’s magic beans. If Cameron had any shame he’d lie awake every night wailing at what he’s done to the Tory Party and this country. I’m sick of hearing about Farage. Our media, desperate for clicks, will spend the next five years circle jerking over his every spiteful utterance.
No doubt it’s going to be difficult for Starmer, but he seems to get that.
By next time, hopefully, the Gaza loons will be neutered as it won’t be an issue.
Israel has been inept in Gaza trying to defeat Hamas but it won’t take them another five years.
I wonder if this will affect votes for 16-17 year olds.
Quite right LuckyGuy. If only someone had thought of that mantra in, I don't know, 1850, imagine where we would be now.
And if only a few PMs had had that mantra in between, we could have had an empire on which the sun never sets.
What missed opportunities. If only we'd known more of the unique mantra that was Trussism.
And my logic isn't that it would impact this election, it's the next one where Labour are going to have to work to create reasons for people to vote for them in 2028/9. Continue the current Government policies and Labour will be looking at 25% of the vote max at the next election...
It used only to be neo-Nazis who argued there was little to distinguish the Allies from the Axis, but it’s a growing viewpoint on the extreme left. The horseshoe effect.
The Labour lead over Con is only 10%. How many polls came anywhere close to that?
Your ire should rather be directed at SKS who despite being on course for a humongous majority didn't have the strength of character not to rule out rejoining.
“ When Rishi Sunak personally decided to row back on net zero and climate action, promoting new oil and gas and opening a new coalmine, I stated that this would become the greatest mistake of his premiership. It turns out it was also his greatest political error, as the party tonight lost not only in the “red wall” but across swathes of seats in the southern “blue wall”. Seats where voters believed the Conservatives cared about conserving our environment turned against Sunak’s hardline rhetoric.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/05/labour-britain-conservatives-our-panels-verdict-parties-election-result-starmer-sunak
It’s a view I suppose.
Got to imagine this will cause a lot of people to demand change. Labour won’t deliver it, but still…
And I don't think any pollster did even vaguely well - who had Labour on 36% and Tories 25%?
Best best I lost? Reform to win under 14% of the vote at 8/1
Lucky to get away with that.
By Sunday, if I was him, I'd be relaxing by the pool at my OC mansion enjoying diet Coke and sandwiches with my incredibly beautiful and wealthy wife.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001195
And the Lib Dem gains from the Conservatives are enough to kybosh the Conservative majority 2019 by themselves.
I did fall asleep after the exit poll but within a couple of hours I logged on and may I begin by congratulating Keir Starmer on his landslide win and may he use it wisely over the next 5 years
I would also congratulate the Lib Dems for their spectacular success, and hope they will prove an effective opposition alongside the conservatives to labour
I am delighted the voters summarily exercised their democratic mandate by sending Truss, JRM, and others to political irrelevance
And as for the SNP their party is well and truely over
I hope the conservatives learn the lesson and do not move to accommodate Farage though I do expect some merging of policies
Farage has said this morning he is coming after Labour and if his actions in the EU are anything go by, he is likely to be a thorn in their side not least as the media seem to think he is their poster boy giving him far too much coverage
And finally PB was at its finest last night providing far more detailed and relevant information than any of the broadcaster, so a huge thank you to all those responsible for this unique political forum
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001191
Lab 18,556
Con 18,404
LD 3,611
Ref 3,144
Grn 2,798
WPB 538
Heritage 65
Lab maj 152
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001160
While the likes of Stephen Flynn and Pete Wishart hung on, Joanna Cherry and Alyn Smith were among those to lose out in Edinburgh South West and Stirling and Strathallan respectively. John Nicolson's defeat in Alloa and Grangemouth has been greeted with joy on social media where he emerged as the Nat MP people most wanted to lose their seat.
https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/joanna-cherry-john-nicolson-alyn-33174065
Remember what @MarqueeMark said at the start of the campaign about a Tory vote of 32% being in sight.
This could so easily have been a hung parliament. Which I bet is (as we'll no doubt find out through the full course of time) why Rishi called it.
Everyone claims to want growth in the abstract, but too many people nowadays have a vested interest against growth when it is proposed. Whether that be opposing construction, or opposing induced demand.
If the votes had fallen differently across the seats then this could easily have been a very slim Labour majority or even a HP. They’ve got lucky.