Well done Andy and congratulations on getting it right. You can tell your new MP he has a large number of constituent who will be contacting him about the campaign I am involved in. I won't bore you with details, but might give you a one sentence explanation.
I have to say I never expected Sunak to be quite as terrible at campaigning as he was. But every day he somehow got worse.
Everything was weird. We saw him in the leadership election and he wasn't good. So the strategy, make him the centrepiece of everything, it will just be Sunak, Sunak, Sunak all day....and he doesn't look like somebody who actually wants or likes being the centre of attention. He is uncomfortable, awkward and gives weird answers to soft ball questions.
DRoss? I couldn’t communicate the result as we headed to the stage. But I did manage a subtle gesture so that my wife and a few of our activists were watching eating bags of popcorn…
The Tories simply fell apart. The typical Labour gain in England seems to have entailed Conservative votes bleeding away to Reform at two or three times the rate that they went to Labour.
Husband informs me that the Liberal Democrats have surpassed Charles Kennedy's seat total from 2005, with 53 seats still to declare.
Lib Dems now exceeded the exit poll. What a night for them.
Sir Ed Davey may not have seen a mass rise in the vote, but perhaps taking an extended extreme sports holiday in the public eye impressed those in the target seats disproportionately.
Mr. Horse, why does it make sense to have schoolchildren voting?
Why wouldn’t it? The voting age is arbitrary, we don’t and shouldn’t have any actual test for votes, so what is the significant difference between 18 year olds (some if whom are also school children) and 17 year olds voting? More than ever young people have the opportunity to be high information voters, and their needs are as significant, if not more so, than the needs of older voters - they will live with the consequences of their vote for much longer!
I think this is right. It's not just the number of seats that the Conservatives are losing it's where they are losing them. Lab and LD are carving up the previously impregnable Tory stronghold in the South of England.
Mr. Horse, why does it make sense to have schoolchildren voting?
Why wouldn’t it? The voting age is arbitrary, we don’t and shouldn’t have any actual test for votes, so what is the significant difference between 18 year olds (some if whom are also school children) and 17 year olds voting? More than ever young people have the opportunity to be high information voters, and their needs are as significant, if not more so, than the needs of older voters - they will live with the consequences of their vote for much longer!
It's not arbitrary, it's based on the legal age of majority, 18.
Mr. Horse, why does it make sense to have schoolchildren voting?
Why wouldn’t it? The voting age is arbitrary, we don’t and shouldn’t have any actual test for votes, so what is the significant difference between 18 year olds (some if whom are also school children) and 17 year olds voting? More than ever young people have the opportunity to be high information voters, and their needs are as significant, if not more so, than the needs of older voters - they will live with the consequences of their vote for much longer!
Why not 14? Why not 5? Why not give the vote to the unborn (so the mother gets two votes)?
If there is to be an age limit, why 16?
(I think 18 is a good compromise between age, experience and knowledge.)
Other EU leaders have expressed concern over media reports that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban may be meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday.
Mr Orban - whose country now holds the EU rotating presidency - is the bloc's only head of national government to have kept close ties to the Kremlin following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Gonna go to sleep too, even though I've no idea still if gonna win on the 3-4 Reform seats bet (doesn't look like it but also doesn't look like market particularly "knows")
I repeat again that if you can get a fill on Sunak exit date in 2025 (which is actually a bet on when there is a permanent Tory leader, not Sunak's leader exit date) at 40 then you should (depending on what he has to say later). There's an order at 36 there atm in your way and I wouldn't take the 15 that's available. But a "take stock" period of purgatory before a leadership contest is a perfectly sane possibility and shouldn't be such long odds. It would have won you money in 2005.
Looks like after a brief hope earlier of getting around 150 things are edging downwards for the Tories?
Closer to 100 than 150 would be the cut off point from really really bad to cataclysmically bad perhaps.
Looks to me like they’ll wind up pretty close to the exit poll. Maybe a shade down. They’re at 104. I think realistically there’s another 20 or so at least for them looking at what’s remaining, but DYOR.
Question for Tories here - do we think the current parliamentary party survives? To me it looks roughly 50/50 on those who’d happily merge with Reform and those who would only do it over their dead bodies - meaning that a reshuffle of Tory MPs to Reform would leave a rump Tory party that wouldn’t even manage to be the Official Opposition. Will the Tory party hold together, or will Farage be phoning up a lot of the more nuttier Tories and suggesting they cross the aisle?
Question for Tories here - do we think the current parliamentary party survives? To me it looks roughly 50/50 on those who’d happily merge with Reform and those who would only do it over their dead bodies - meaning that a reshuffle of Tory MPs to Reform would leave a rump Tory party that wouldn’t even manage to be the Official Opposition. Will the Tory party hold together, or will Farage be phoning up a lot of the more nuttier Tories and suggesting they cross the aisle?
They won't give up being the official opposition to join a protest movement that has weak long-term prospects.
It would be the equivalent of Long-Bailey deciding to join the Greens in a fit of sulkiness.
Braverman might do it if offered the leadership, but that won't happen.
Mr. grss, by that line of reasoning: What's the difference between 16 year old and 15 year olds voting? And 15 and 14? And 14 and 13?
I agree. I don’t think there should be an age threshold to vote - as long as you can and wish to vote, you should be allowed to. I don’t know what the rules are for those who are incapacitated due to age and proxy voting, but similar rules should be used for the young. One of my great grandparents was a non verbal Alzheimer’s patient for 10+ years - I don’t know if she had a proxy or not, but that doesn’t seem that different to a 3-4 year old to me.
Mr. grss, by that line of reasoning: What's the difference between 16 year old and 15 year olds voting? And 15 and 14? And 14 and 13?
I agree. I don’t think there should be an age threshold to vote - as long as you can and wish to vote, you should be allowed to. I don’t know what the rules are for those who are incapacitated due to age and proxy voting, but similar rules should be used for the young. One of my great grandparents was a non verbal Alzheimer’s patient for 10+ years - I don’t know if she had a proxy or not, but that doesn’t seem that different to a 3-4 year old to me.
Votes for three and four year olds? I'd like to see polling on that.
If Labour were on 34% in the campaign the narrative might have been a bit different.
It seems like the Tory message of stop the super majority only half got through...the bit about not voting Labour got through, just the bit about you have to vote and vote for us, didn't quite cut through ;-)
Question for Tories here - do we think the current parliamentary party survives? To me it looks roughly 50/50 on those who’d happily merge with Reform and those who would only do it over their dead bodies - meaning that a reshuffle of Tory MPs to Reform would leave a rump Tory party that wouldn’t even manage to be the Official Opposition. Will the Tory party hold together, or will Farage be phoning up a lot of the more nuttier Tories and suggesting they cross the aisle?
I am not a Tory (tm), but here's my view. The death of the Tory party has been predicted many times, and like a revenant (*) it always comes back to haunt us. As the Conservatives will be the official opposition, I think much of their positioning will be defined as being against Labour as much as anything else. The party will eventually coalesce to beat the enemy - which they think is Labour.
(*) A phoenix might be a better analogy, but phoenix's are cool and nice.
I think this is right. It's not just the number of seats that the Conservatives are losing it's where they are losing them. Lab and LD are carving up the previously impregnable Tory stronghold in the South of England.
Until they win it back. See Labours reinstated strunghold in Glasgow etc.
Question for Tories here - do we think the current parliamentary party survives? To me it looks roughly 50/50 on those who’d happily merge with Reform and those who would only do it over their dead bodies - meaning that a reshuffle of Tory MPs to Reform would leave a rump Tory party that wouldn’t even manage to be the Official Opposition. Will the Tory party hold together, or will Farage be phoning up a lot of the more nuttier Tories and suggesting they cross the aisle?
I am not a Tory (tm), but here's my view. The death of the Tory party has been predicted many times, and like a revenant (*) it always comes back to haunt us. As the Conservatives will be the official opposition, I think much of their positioning will be defined as being against Labour as much as anything else. The party will eventually coalesce to beat the enemy - which they think is Labour.
(*) A phoenix might be a better analogy, but phoenix's are cool and nice.
One thing that the Tories are going to have to ask themselves, how do we get people funding us again. Reform were raising more money than them some week and none of the reliable donors ponied up. The reason the Tories have always come back in the past is they always still remained well funded even during the dark times.
I wonder how many close races they lost because they couldn't afford any advertising etc.
LDs currently have a corridor running from Henley to North Devon, a few further results their way and they could extend that into Cornwall and all the way into Wimbledon (though they'd need to win Maidenhead or 3 other seats to go around it).
It's the Orange strip separating the South from the Midlands.
Comments
Lib Dem share of vote only up 0.5%.
Very interesting result.
In both cases, it should be noted the party that did win couldn't hold their majority at the next election.
(1) Very efficient LibDem-Lab tactical voting
(2) The Conservative vote being split
(3) A raft of special interest parties getting representation
LD 20832
Con 16493
Ref 6307
Lab 4773
Grn 1661
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001591
Again, a sign of volatility and not in a good way.
Due to her being a loony (5G and all that), or just resources focused elsewhere?
Husband informs me that the Liberal Democrats have surpassed Charles Kennedy's seat total from 2005, with 53 seats still to declare.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001146
No helicopter...Times are tough.
Don't like to brag, but fuck me that was a good tip by me at 14/1.
Netted me over £400. First (and last) time I'll ever punch the air for the yellow peril.
Sadly, I expect him to hang around in the media - and on TV - like a stinking, decayed grouse that was left on the moors after the Glorious Twelfth.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall
I think this is right. It's not just the number of seats that the Conservatives are losing it's where they are losing them. Lab and LD are carving up the previously impregnable Tory stronghold in the South of England.
What's the difference between 16 year old and 15 year olds voting?
And 15 and 14?
And 14 and 13?
Closer to 100 than 150 would be the cut off point from really really bad to cataclysmically bad perhaps.
If there is to be an age limit, why 16?
(I think 18 is a good compromise between age, experience and knowledge.)
Mr Orban - whose country now holds the EU rotating presidency - is the bloc's only head of national government to have kept close ties to the Kremlin following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cml29r8d2zxo
I repeat again that if you can get a fill on Sunak exit date in 2025 (which is actually a bet on when there is a permanent Tory leader, not Sunak's leader exit date) at 40 then you should (depending on what he has to say later). There's an order at 36 there atm in your way and I wouldn't take the 15 that's available. But a "take stock" period of purgatory before a leadership contest is a perfectly sane possibility and shouldn't be such long odds. It would have won you money in 2005.
Toodles
Con 16095
Ref 8194
East Derry down to the wire, Gregory Campbell (DUP) slightly ahead.
Alex Easton (Ind U) takes North Down from Alliance.
Robin Swann (UUP) takes South Antrim from DUP.
Jim Allister [TUV] causes the biggest upset in North Antrim.
And the most historic, Sorcha Eastwood [Alliance] wins Lagan Valley.
It would be the equivalent of Long-Bailey deciding to join the Greens in a fit of sulkiness.
Braverman might do it if offered the leadership, but that won't happen.
I am up twenty seven quid for a night's work so far
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001386
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001169
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001482
(*) A phoenix might be a better analogy, but phoenix's are cool and nice.
I wonder how many close races they lost because they couldn't afford any advertising etc.
It's the Orange strip separating the South from the Midlands.
Nasty, misogynistic populist.