Interestingly, this is the first time that a woman who has rowed singlehanded across the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans has ever beaten a man named after a boring colour at a general election. An historic moment.
Question for Tories here - do we think the current parliamentary party survives? To me it looks roughly 50/50 on those who’d happily merge with Reform and those who would only do it over their dead bodies - meaning that a reshuffle of Tory MPs to Reform would leave a rump Tory party that wouldn’t even manage to be the Official Opposition. Will the Tory party hold together, or will Farage be phoning up a lot of the more nuttier Tories and suggesting they cross the aisle?
I am not a Tory (tm), but here's my view. The death of the Tory party has been predicted many times, and like a revenant (*) it always comes back to haunt us. As the Conservatives will be the official opposition, I think much of their positioning will be defined as being against Labour as much as anything else. The party will eventually coalesce to beat the enemy - which they think is Labour.
(*) A phoenix might be a better analogy, but phoenix's are cool and nice.
One thing that the Tories are going to have to ask themselves, how do we get people funding us again. Reform were raising more money than them some week and none of the reliable donors ponied up. The reason the Tories have always come back in the past is they always still remained well funded even during the dark times.
I wonder how many close races they lost because they couldn't afford any advertising etc.
It'll be interesting to see where Reform's funding has come from.
Mr. grss, by that line of reasoning: What's the difference between 16 year old and 15 year olds voting? And 15 and 14? And 14 and 13?
I agree. I don’t think there should be an age threshold to vote - as long as you can and wish to vote, you should be allowed to. I don’t know what the rules are for those who are incapacitated due to age and proxy voting, but similar rules should be used for the young. One of my great grandparents was a non verbal Alzheimer’s patient for 10+ years - I don’t know if she had a proxy or not, but that doesn’t seem that different to a 3-4 year old to me.
A simple solution would be to allow anyone who passes the GCSE citizenship to vote. No age restrictions. Make the exam optional & free to sit.
LDs currently have a corridor running from Henley to North Devon, a few further results their way and they could extend that into Cornwall and all the way into Wimbledon (though they'd need to win Maidenhead or 3 other seats to go around it).
It's the Orange strip separating the South from the Midlands.
I quite fancy plotting out a LibDem Cycle Route following this corridor. The party does tend to win the prettiest parts of the country.
I have to say hats off to the LDs. That really is a stunning result for them. I doubted it, but they’ve pulled it off.
I never expected their targeting would result in such an efficient vote. It will be hard to replicate, but a massive success. That Ed Davey deserves a knighthood.
With more than 580 seats now declared, the BBC is forecasting that the final vote share across Great Britain will be:
Labour - 35% (+2)
Conservatives - 24% (-21)
Liberal Democrats - 12% (0)
Reform - 15% (+13)
Green - 7% (+4)
Turnout 60%.
This will be by far the worst Conservative performance ever in terms of vote share.
Labour's vote is slightly below that secured by Tony Blair in 2005 and will be the lowest share of the vote won by any single party majority government.
Don't like to brag, but fuck me that was a good tip by me at 14/1.
Netted me over £400. First (and last) time I'll ever punch the air for the yellow peril.
See my earlier post @Casino_Royale. Well done. The odds were good, but having inside info I still thought you would lose, but that is what a 14/1 bet is all about.
Mr. grss, by that line of reasoning: What's the difference between 16 year old and 15 year olds voting? And 15 and 14? And 14 and 13?
I agree. I don’t think there should be an age threshold to vote - as long as you can and wish to vote, you should be allowed to. I don’t know what the rules are for those who are incapacitated due to age and proxy voting, but similar rules should be used for the young. One of my great grandparents was a non verbal Alzheimer’s patient for 10+ years - I don’t know if she had a proxy or not, but that doesn’t seem that different to a 3-4 year old to me.
Votes for three and four year olds? I'd like to see polling on that.
I mean - de jure, but not de facto. Again, I don’t know how proxy voting works for the incapable due to old age - but I don’t see a significant difference. If a non-verbal Alzheimer’s patient can give their vote to a family member who would utilise it on their behalf, why can’t a child? We live in a time where young people have as much access to information as their elders, and as much ability to engage with it and decipher whether it is trustworthy or not (that is not to say they’re good at it - just equally bad as adults). Why shouldn’t they be given the franchise? They have a stake in the future - arguably more of one than anyone over 90!
Conservatives under Sunak were the party for softer Leavers, Reform the party for those favouring harder Leave it seems
So you advocate moving hard right, OK.
That is the lesson they might learn, unfortunately, because they will look at the RefUK share and think it will all come running home to the Tories if they just promise a bit more nonsense on immigration.
I think this is right. It's not just the number of seats that the Conservatives are losing it's where they are losing them. Lab and LD are carving up the previously impregnable Tory stronghold in the South of England.
Until they win it back. See Labours reinstated strunghold in Glasgow etc.
The Conservatives will win back some of the seats they have lost. But C+R is less than L+L+G in about half the seats lost. The new winners will have votes they can squeeze next time.
What a fantastic night for the Lib Dems, exit poll undersold them a bit.
Absolutely incredible. I am really emotional. for so long, we have struggled. This was spectacular. Mark Pack really has done brilliantly. Ed has been fantastic. I am almost speechless. Way way beyond my wildest hopes.
With more than 580 seats now declared, the BBC is forecasting that the final vote share across Great Britain will be:
Labour - 35% (+2)
Conservatives - 24% (-21)
Liberal Democrats - 12% (0)
Reform - 15% (+13)
Green - 7% (+4)
Turnout 60%.
This will be by far the worst Conservative performance ever in terms of vote share.
Labour's vote is slightly below that secured by Tony Blair in 2005 and will be the lowest share of the vote won by any single party majority government.
Pretty much as I predicted at 10pm. Interesting how the shares and seats matched up correctly.
It is worth remembering that less than four years ago we were all talking about how Starmer and Davey would fare badly in an election because all they offered was boring competence.
Maybe Sunak should have tried some of that rather than pandering to London-centric nutcases with small brains and massive egos.
What a fantastic night for the Lib Dems, exit poll undersold them a bit.
Absolutely incredible. I am really emotional. for so long, we have struggled. This was spectacular. Mark Pack really has done brilliantly. Ed has been fantastic. I am almost speechless. Way way beyond my wildest hopes.
Well done to you, a good clean fight and some excellent ground campaigns clearly.
Looking forward to the traditional conclusion of the election - the helicopter shots of the Jaguars crawling towards the palace, the King, the walk up to Number 10.
What's the upper expectation for Tories now? Seems like they've lost a lot in the South they thought they would hold on to. Is above 130 still in play?
What's the upper expectation for Tories now? Seems like they've lost a lot in the South they thought they would hold on to. Is above 130 still in play?
They’re gonna come in around the mid 120s-ish I think. Could scrape 130 but it’s squeaky.
What's the upper expectation for Tories now? Seems like they've lost a lot in the South they thought they would hold on to. Is above 130 still in play?
Comments
We don't need any more Nazis in the commons.
David Sheperd hop and skip
Labour - 35% (+2)
Conservatives - 24% (-21)
Liberal Democrats - 12% (0)
Reform - 15% (+13)
Green - 7% (+4)
Turnout 60%.
This will be by far the worst Conservative performance ever in terms of vote share.
Labour's vote is slightly below that secured by Tony Blair in 2005 and will be the lowest share of the vote won by any single party majority government.
But - electoral reform would make that collapse quicker and more certain as it would rob them of tactical votes.
Possible Portillo moment.
She won nearly 70% last time (taking boundary changes into account).
There will be a recount within East Derry. Extra Sinn Fein votes have been discovered but unclear how many.
Maybe Sunak should have tried some of that rather than pandering to London-centric nutcases with small brains and massive egos.
Poor form that she's not even attending the declaration.
Thing One: Labour has traded votes in its traditional heartlands for a more efficient distribution. This is something that Starmer has achieved.
Thing Two: The Tories have collapsed. This is a mixture of Boris, Truss and Sunak.
None of those are likely to help Labour's vote share remain at its current level.
It's to cling on like a limpet until the tide turns in their favour.
It probably will not, though.
That may be in 2029 but it will not be now.
Lab 11,847 (26.7%)
Con 11,217 (25.3%)
Ref 9,958 (22.5%)
Ind Bagge 6,282 (14.2%)
LD 2,618
Grn 1,838
Loony 338
Heritage 160
Comm 77
Lab maj 630
It's not "Where the hell is Matt?", but "Where the hell is Lettuce Liz?"
Matt has just cracked open his wine to toast the political death of Mark Harper.
And I will keep a half glass for Liz Truss.
EDIT: no, I think it can’t be done