The Labour lead over Con is only 10%. How many polls came anywhere close to that?
The fact that the polls predicted a landslide and we got a landslide will mask some of this. But it was an absolute disaster for the pollsters. That can’t be stressed enough.
If the votes had fallen differently across the seats then this could easily have been a very slim Labour majority or even a HP. They’ve got lucky.
Just like 1997. The polling miss which got ignored.
Stayed the course, did a lot of hard work to help bring the party back from the brink.
Loses to a Gaza candidate as labour come back to power.
And what about Streeting? He only won by 500.
Does he stay put? Risk of him losing his seat could impact his chances of being next leader.
Hadn’t spotted that. Labour have an issue potentially in future. Holding on in the cities where the Gaza vote hit them but also holding on in the red wall and the new red seats in the shires. A coalition as potentially fragile as the Tory one in 2019.
By next time, hopefully, the Gaza loons will be neutered as it won’t be an issue.
Israel has been inept in Gaza trying to defeat Hamas but it won’t take them another five years.
I wonder if this will affect votes for 16-17 year olds.
We can be sure it will be something else by then. There’s always trouble in MENA. And there are other issues, like sharia, or criticism of Islam, to rile them.
I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
Labour lost big in previously safe Labour seats to the pro-Gazan protest vote, including Greens..
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
No one crying, but some of us are just pointing out this is a very, very odd result and it's highly unlikely Labour will be able to repeat this result or anything close to it in 2029.
That said, of course it's a moment of celebration for Labour and SKS, so well done and enjoy!
It doesn't feel like 1997. The spectre of Farage is worrysome.
Farage has 4 million votes, these are the people who have been ignored for most of this century.
They are just lucky the system is rigged to be either Tory or Labour
How long until we can expect Rishi's resignation as leader of the Conservatives?
How long before we can expect Rishi's resignation as MP for Richmond?
By Sunday, if I was him, I'd be relaxing by the pool at my OC mansion enjoying diet Coke and sandwiches with my incredibly beautiful and wealthy wife.
As it's a seat even the tories couldn't contrive to lose in a by-election the competition for it will be fierce among the recently ejected. Maybe Truss? She claims to be from Yorkshire occasionally.
The Labour lead over Con is only 10%. How many polls came anywhere close to that?
The fact that the polls predicted a landslide and we got a landslide will mask some of this. But it was an absolute disaster for the pollsters. That can’t be stressed enough.
If the votes had fallen differently across the seats then this could easily have been a very slim Labour majority or even a HP. They’ve got lucky.
It must have been very close. They should lose that and East Antrim next time.
Given the vote shares in the Assembly elections should imply a fairly comfortable unionist win, I’m guessing that a lot of DUP voters must have switched to TUV, and a lot of SDLP votes to SF.
I think Alliance are gaining is most areas.
UUP and Alliance generated more votes than SDLP but returned less MPs. Where do you stand on that system?
Chris Skidmore has identified the big reason the Tories lost.
“ When Rishi Sunak personally decided to row back on net zero and climate action, promoting new oil and gas and opening a new coalmine, I stated that this would become the greatest mistake of his premiership. It turns out it was also his greatest political error, as the party tonight lost not only in the “red wall” but across swathes of seats in the southern “blue wall”. Seats where voters believed the Conservatives cared about conserving our environment turned against Sunak’s hardline rhetoric.”
I’m sure they speak of little else in Rother Valley.
We are going to have between 2 and 5 years of terrible Tory self-analysis. To start with it'll mostly be of the "the voters were wrong/just sending a message/need a good hard listening to" variety, I should imagine.
Stayed the course, did a lot of hard work to help bring the party back from the brink.
Loses to a Gaza candidate as labour come back to power.
And what about Streeting? He only won by 500.
Does he stay put? Risk of him losing his seat could impact his chances of being next leader.
Hadn’t spotted that. Labour have an issue potentially in future. Holding on in the cities where the Gaza vote hit them but also holding on in the red wall and the new red seats in the shires. A coalition as potentially fragile as the Tory one in 2019.
By next time, hopefully, the Gaza loons will be neutered as it won’t be an issue.
Israel has been inept in Gaza trying to defeat Hamas but it won’t take them another five years.
I wonder if this will affect votes for 16-17 year olds.
We can be sure it will be something else by then. There’s always trouble in MENA. And there are other issues, like sharia, or criticism of Islam, to rile them.
The country will also be a percent or three more muslim by the next election as well.
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
You beat what's in front of you. It may be fair to point out Labour's voteshare is not super impressive, and even to suggest this could mean problems for them down the line. But 'has not won' is just stupid phrasing to get attention.
I think it's a good take. It means Labour have won by default - due to exhaustion of the existing administration- but haven't really won over anyone to their programme. Under 35% is derisory for a new administration looking to take over, and barely ahead of 2019GE in England.
1997 this is not.
Your second sentence doesn't seem to relate to the first. The second may indeed be a good take, but 'won by default' is a very very different take to 'Labour has not won' as quoted, which is just silly for the sake of being silly, and did not restrict to whether they had won people to their 'programme'.
It's won but mathematically so.
Remember what @MarqueeMark said at the start of the campaign about a Tory vote of 32% being in sight.
This could so easily have been a hung parliament. Which I bet is (as we'll no doubt find out through the full course of time) why Rishi called it.
So, was the failure to neuter Farage was the largest error of the Tory campaign? Would it have been possible & would it have made a significant difference?
In retrospect it might have been the strongest argument for waiting till later in the year when Farage might have been forced to choose between his burgeoning US progress in grifting republican voters vs his an (apparently) fading UK one. Or perhaps Farage could have been bought off earlier with a peerage? (Services to Brexit, etc etc.)
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
You beat what's in front of you. It may be fair to point out Labour's voteshare is not super impressive, and even to suggest this could mean problems for them down the line. But 'has not won' is just stupid phrasing to get attention.
I think it's a good take. It means Labour have won by default - due to exhaustion of the existing administration- but haven't really won over anyone to their programme. Under 35% is derisory for a new administration looking to take over, and barely ahead of 2019GE in England.
I think, underneath the stonking majority, Labour insiders will be slightly disquieted this morning.
Very poor % of the vote, on low turnout. Challenges from the Gaza Left and the Greens, and from Reform on the Right. Loss of Debbonaire and Ashworth from the front bench.
One hopes this does not encourage Keir’s natural timidity, because “doing nothing” is one sure way to lose in 2029.
Good morning all. So my forecasts. I said Labour 380 to 410. Lib Dems 60. The Tories 130 to 150. I did not do bad! Reform I said 10%of the vote. A bit out there! 63 or 65%, I said would vote. Out there as well. I did not do bad though! At least we did not need to suffer from polling for a bit.
Results are much worse than I thought. No.late swing back to the Tories. EVEN Horsham has gone LD. Wow!
Agreed. Lib Dems do better than I believed. In Horsham now The Dems are in will they drop the price of a cup of Tea at the Market?
The Labour lead over Con is only 10%. How many polls came anywhere close to that?
The fact that the polls predicted a landslide and we got a landslide will mask some of this. But it was an absolute disaster for the pollsters. That can’t be stressed enough.
If the votes had fallen differently across the seats then this could easily have been a very slim Labour majority or even a HP. They’ve got lucky.
A host of SNP big names have become victims of a remarkable cull of Nationalist politicians across Scotland in the General Election. Swathes of Nat MPs have lost their seats already with the party on course to be reduced to a rump of just eight seats, according to pollsters.
While the likes of Stephen Flynn and Pete Wishart hung on, Joanna Cherry and Alyn Smith were among those to lose out in Edinburgh South West and Stirling and Strathallan respectively. John Nicolson's defeat in Alloa and Grangemouth has been greeted with joy on social media where he emerged as the Nat MP people most wanted to lose their seat.
I think YouGov’s changed methodology just about gets away with it but the rest were way out.
I have to say I am as surprised as anyone to see Labour so low. But what I am more surprised about is how well Labour has done considering. So either McSweeney knew all along and so did the setup based on that assumption or there is something weird going on.
The Labour lead over Con is only 10%. How many polls came anywhere close to that?
The fact that the polls predicted a landslide and we got a landslide will mask some of this. But it was an absolute disaster for the pollsters. That can’t be stressed enough.
If the votes had fallen differently across the seats then this could easily have been a very slim Labour majority or even a HP. They’ve got lucky.
Reform and Labour both seem to have been overstated by a bit and a lot respectively. Cons understated.
Turnout effect maybe? I dunno. A weird time of year for an election too.
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
You beat what's in front of you. It may be fair to point out Labour's voteshare is not super impressive, and even to suggest this could mean problems for them down the line. But 'has not won' is just stupid phrasing to get attention.
I think it's a good take. It means Labour have won by default - due to exhaustion of the existing administration- but haven't really won over anyone to their programme. Under 35% is derisory for a new administration looking to take over, and barely ahead of 2019GE in England.
1997 this is not.
Your second sentence doesn't seem to relate to the first. The second may indeed be a good take, but 'won by default' is a very very different take to 'Labour has not won' as quoted, which is just silly for the sake of being silly, and did not restrict to whether they had won people to their 'programme'.
It's won but mathematically so.
Remember what @MarqueeMark said at the start of the campaign about a Tory vote of 32% being in sight.
This could so easily have been a hung parliament. Which I bet is (as we'll no doubt find out through the full course of time) why Rishi called it.
The Conservatives won 32%, across England and Wales, in the Mayoral and PCC elections. Such a vote share was achievable, given a competent campaign.
I think enough left wing voters would have opted for Labour for them to win, but the Tories could have saved a lot of seats.
I think, underneath the stonking majority, Labour insiders will be slightly disquieted this morning.
Very poor % of the vote, on low turnout. Challenges from the Gaza Left and the Greens, and from Reform on the Right. Loss of Debbonaire and Ashworth from the front bench.
One hopes this does not encourage Keir’s natural timidity, because “doing nothing” is one sure way to lose in 2029.
I would imagine the hope is that Gaza will sort itself out one way or another during the next year or so & will then fade as a live subject in voter’s minds. Reform / Green issues are not going to go away though.
An, of course, Gaza could just as easily get worse, not better.
A host of SNP big names have become victims of a remarkable cull of Nationalist politicians across Scotland in the General Election. Swathes of Nat MPs have lost their seats already with the party on course to be reduced to a rump of just eight seats, according to pollsters.
While the likes of Stephen Flynn and Pete Wishart hung on, Joanna Cherry and Alyn Smith were among those to lose out in Edinburgh South West and Stirling and Strathallan respectively. John Nicolson's defeat in Alloa and Grangemouth has been greeted with joy on social media where he emerged as the Nat MP people most wanted to lose their seat.
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
You beat what's in front of you. It may be fair to point out Labour's voteshare is not super impressive, and even to suggest this could mean problems for them down the line. But 'has not won' is just stupid phrasing to get attention.
I think it's a good take. It means Labour have won by default - due to exhaustion of the existing administration- but haven't really won over anyone to their programme. Under 35% is derisory for a new administration looking to take over, and barely ahead of 2019GE in England.
1997 this is not.
Your second sentence doesn't seem to relate to the first. The second may indeed be a good take, but 'won by default' is a very very different take to 'Labour has not won' as quoted, which is just silly for the sake of being silly, and did not restrict to whether they had won people to their 'programme'.
It's won but mathematically so.
Remember what @MarqueeMark said at the start of the campaign about a Tory vote of 32% being in sight.
This could so easily have been a hung parliament. Which I bet is (as we'll no doubt find out through the full course of time) why Rishi called it.
So, was the failure to neuter Farage was the largest error of the Tory campaign? Would it even have been possible?
The tories need to train their cracked carronades on the Fukkers if they are ever going to come back. They certainly can't do that with Kevin the Minion in charge. They need a clubbable old white bloke whose voice and demeanour hint at a longstanding acquaintance with the N-Word, P-Word and products of Philip Morris and InBev.
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
You beat what's in front of you. It may be fair to point out Labour's voteshare is not super impressive, and even to suggest this could mean problems for them down the line. But 'has not won' is just stupid phrasing to get attention.
I think it's a good take. It means Labour have won by default - due to exhaustion of the existing administration- but haven't really won over anyone to their programme. Under 35% is derisory for a new administration looking to take over, and barely ahead of 2019GE in England.
1997 this is not.
In so many ways. In 1997 Major and Clarke delivered a golden economic legacy which gave the capacity to increase public spending strongly. Starmer and Reeves have a much more difficult job. It is very difficult to see where the money their supporters want to see spent will come from.
The Labour lead over Con is only 10%. How many polls came anywhere close to that?
The fact that the polls predicted a landslide and we got a landslide will mask some of this. But it was an absolute disaster for the pollsters. That can’t be stressed enough.
If the votes had fallen differently across the seats then this could easily have been a very slim Labour majority or even a HP. They’ve got lucky.
Just like 1997. The polling miss which got ignored.
How do pollsters cope with such heavy tactical voting?
The Labour lead over Con is only 10%. How many polls came anywhere close to that?
The fact that the polls predicted a landslide and we got a landslide will mask some of this. But it was an absolute disaster for the pollsters. That can’t be stressed enough.
If the votes had fallen differently across the seats then this could easily have been a very slim Labour majority or even a HP. They’ve got lucky.
Reform and Labour both seem to have been overstated by a bit and a lot respectively. Cons understated.
Turnout effect maybe? I dunno. A weird time of year for an election too.
A May election would have worked better for the Tories.
It will be interesting to learn whether the postal vote fiasco and voter ID requirements suppressed the vote. Particularly for the Tories.
I don't know why PB Tories are bellyaching. Labour ( and the LDs) gamed a stupid electoral system. The Tories had 14 years to change it.
Labour's awfully low vote share can't all be put down to tactical voting though?
Labour lost big in previously safe Labour seats to the pro-Gazan protest vote, including Greens..
I too think it a disgrace that we have a landslide on a third of the vote. But crying foul on your own preferred voting system smacks of a poor loser. Conservatives are channelling Hillary 2016.
No one crying, but some of us are just pointing out this is a very, very odd result and it's highly unlikely Labour will be able to repeat this result or anything close to it in 2029.
That said, of course it's a moment of celebration for Labour and SKS, so well done and enjoy!
It doesn't feel like 1997. The spectre of Farage is worrysome.
Farage has 4 million votes, these are the people who have been ignored for most of this century.
Is there data showing this? I'd have thought they'd mostly be former Conservative voters who have got the government they wanted for the last 14 years, the referendum they wanted, and the referendum result they wanted.
It must have been very close. They should lose that and East Antrim next time.
Given the vote shares in the Assembly elections should imply a fairly comfortable unionist win, I’m guessing that a lot of DUP voters must have switched to TUV, and a lot of SDLP votes to SF.
I think Alliance are gaining is most areas.
UUP and Alliance generated more votes than SDLP but returned less MPs. Where do you stand on that system?
Very different vibes on this site from the hubris manifest on 13th December 2019.
Irreconcilable Leavers gone Reform. Still a market of morons and fantasists, the malign and the leaden, for Farage’s magic beans. If Cameron had any shame he’d lie awake every night wailing at what he’s done to the Tory Party and this country. I’m sick of hearing about Farage. Our media, desperate for clicks, will spend the next five years circle jerking over his every spiteful utterance.
No doubt it’s going to be difficult for Starmer, but he seems to get that.
I said somewhere last night that this was the Third and Final Act of Brexit. Whilst I could see that coming I didn’t quite see the side dish of Gaza that came with it.
A host of SNP big names have become victims of a remarkable cull of Nationalist politicians across Scotland in the General Election. Swathes of Nat MPs have lost their seats already with the party on course to be reduced to a rump of just eight seats, according to pollsters.
While the likes of Stephen Flynn and Pete Wishart hung on, Joanna Cherry and Alyn Smith were among those to lose out in Edinburgh South West and Stirling and Strathallan respectively. John Nicolson's defeat in Alloa and Grangemouth has been greeted with joy on social media where he emerged as the Nat MP people most wanted to lose their seat.
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
You beat what's in front of you. It may be fair to point out Labour's voteshare is not super impressive, and even to suggest this could mean problems for them down the line. But 'has not won' is just stupid phrasing to get attention.
I think it's a good take. It means Labour have won by default - due to exhaustion of the existing administration- but haven't really won over anyone to their programme. Under 35% is derisory for a new administration looking to take over, and barely ahead of 2019GE in England.
1997 this is not.
Your second sentence doesn't seem to relate to the first. The second may indeed be a good take, but 'won by default' is a very very different take to 'Labour has not won' as quoted, which is just silly for the sake of being silly, and did not restrict to whether they had won people to their 'programme'.
It's won but mathematically so.
Remember what @MarqueeMark said at the start of the campaign about a Tory vote of 32% being in sight.
This could so easily have been a hung parliament. Which I bet is (as we'll no doubt find out through the full course of time) why Rishi called it.
So, was the failure to neuter Farage was the largest error of the Tory campaign? Would it even have been possible?
The tories need to train their cracked carronades on the Fukkers if they are ever going to come back. They certainly can't do that with Kevin the Minion in charge. They need a clubbable old white bloke whose voice and demeanour hint at a longstanding acquaintance with the N-Word, P-Word and products of Philip Morris and InBev.
You’re saying that Kenneth Clarke’s time has finally come?
(Too old now of course, but seriously: Clarke was the PM that should have been - Euroskepticism tore the Tory company apart & led inevitably to their worst electoral decisions. Not Brexit per se, but almost everything around it & how it was implemented was driven by the nutter faction. Turning away from Clarke was emblematic of that shift away from the centre that has eventually led to this electoral wipe-out.)
The idea that GE2029 is sewn up now is for the birds though when you see the vote shares and the volatility.
The next GE is all to play for. Who the players will be and what their offering is: that will be fascinating.
SKS is going to have to deliver a good government to solidify the Labour vote in time for the next GE. It isn’t inconceivable that 5 years of relative calm without Tory psychodrama might help him improve his vote share next time round. But it is not a given.
I think YouGov’s changed methodology just about gets away with it but the rest were way out.
I have to say I am as surprised as anyone to see Labour so low. But what I am more surprised about is how well Labour has done considering. So either McSweeney knew all along and so did the setup based on that assumption or there is something weird going on.
I do wonder if we're in the world of social media electoral micro-climates.
I mean, logically, of course Truss was going to lose. It's only psephology and UNS and precedent that made us think it was unthinkable.
Perhaps in Truss's case, the precedent was Clegg/Sheffield Hallam.
How long until we can expect Rishi's resignation as leader of the Conservatives?
How long before we can expect Rishi's resignation as MP for Richmond?
By Sunday, if I was him, I'd be relaxing by the pool at my OC mansion enjoying diet Coke and sandwiches with my incredibly beautiful and wealthy wife.
Listening to his speech at the count conceding to Starmer on the national level - which I thought was classy to be fair - he did specifically indicate he'd be staying, for a while at least. He didn't really need to say anything, so I do think he'll stay a year or two at least.
Also, whilst I'd be by the pool myself, ideally with the fragrant Mrs Sunak (though I may not be her type), it isn't really his style. He's a driven man, and it just isn't him. An opportunity will come along outside Westminster at some point and he'll probably take it, but I think he will studiously try to do some ship-steadying first, offer support to old allies and new MPs etc. He isn't a Johnson or a Truss - he's a crap politician, but he's conscientious and not wholly selfish.
I think, underneath the stonking majority, Labour insiders will be slightly disquieted this morning.
Very poor % of the vote, on low turnout. Challenges from the Gaza Left and the Greens, and from Reform on the Right. Loss of Debbonaire and Ashworth from the front bench.
One hopes this does not encourage Keir’s natural timidity, because “doing nothing” is one sure way to lose in 2029.
I would imagine the hope is that Gaza will sort itself out one way or another during the next year or so & will then fade as a live subject in voter’s minds. Reform / Green issues are not going to go away though.
An, of course, Gaza could just as easily get worse, not better.
The morons will be able to move on to whining about Lebanon next
It must have been very close. They should lose that and East Antrim next time.
Given the vote shares in the Assembly elections should imply a fairly comfortable unionist win, I’m guessing that a lot of DUP voters must have switched to TUV, and a lot of SDLP votes to SF.
Yes.
For me 2 takeaways in NI:
1 - Persistence of Sinn Fein. 2 - Unionist shift, which I have not got my head around.
Areas of implications:
1 - Funding of NI. 2 - More than half of NI MPs not sitting in the Commons.
Whilst the general election results were coming in Biden had another terrible performance yesterday with his comments on 4th of July in a speech and radio interviews. Biden has reached the point where any public appearance is simply aiding the Trump campaign. Either the Democrats replace Biden with a viable candidate or Trump is going to win.
I think YouGov’s changed methodology just about gets away with it but the rest were way out.
I have to say I am as surprised as anyone to see Labour so low. But what I am more surprised about is how well Labour has done considering. So either McSweeney knew all along and so did the setup based on that assumption or there is something weird going on.
I do wonder if we're in the world of social media electoral micro-climates.
I mean, logically, of course Truss was going to lose. It's only psephology and UNS and precedent that made us think it was unthinkable.
"This is telling. Labour has not won. The Tories lost and the SNP have lost, whilst Reform and the Greens have won, and the LibDems have been exceedingly organised. But Labour has not won hearts and minds. Not in the slightest."
It's true the country hasn't been swept by Kier-mania but I feel like this is kind of a stupid take. Reform didn't run last time so they didn't get any votes. Their predecessors often got double-digits in elections, some of the voters like them. More of those voters would otherwise go Con but quite a few would otherwise go Lab. They ran this time so obviously everybody else started from a lower base.
You beat what's in front of you. It may be fair to point out Labour's voteshare is not super impressive, and even to suggest this could mean problems for them down the line. But 'has not won' is just stupid phrasing to get attention.
I think it's a good take. It means Labour have won by default - due to exhaustion of the existing administration- but haven't really won over anyone to their programme. Under 35% is derisory for a new administration looking to take over, and barely ahead of 2019GE in England.
1997 this is not.
Your second sentence doesn't seem to relate to the first. The second may indeed be a good take, but 'won by default' is a very very different take to 'Labour has not won' as quoted, which is just silly for the sake of being silly, and did not restrict to whether they had won people to their 'programme'.
It's won but mathematically so.
Remember what @MarqueeMark said at the start of the campaign about a Tory vote of 32% being in sight.
This could so easily have been a hung parliament. Which I bet is (as we'll no doubt find out through the full course of time) why Rishi called it.
So, was the failure to neuter Farage was the largest error of the Tory campaign? Would it even have been possible?
The tories need to train their cracked carronades on the Fukkers if they are ever going to come back. They certainly can't do that with Kevin the Minion in charge. They need a clubbable old white bloke whose voice and demeanour hint at a longstanding acquaintance with the N-Word, P-Word and products of Philip Morris and InBev.
Are you advocating a reverse takeover of the Conservatives by Mr Farage ( rhymes with garage).
I suspect Suella and Farage are in secret talks as we speak.
Pulled an all-nighter and have just had 3 hours sleep.
What a great night with some fascinating results. The worst election for the Conservatives in their history.
The Liz Truss moment is pretty astonishing.
Great to see some of the other Nasty Party booted out by the electorate including Jacob Rees-Mogg, Therese Coffey, Penny Mordaunt, Johnny Mercer.
I’m quite pleased for Jeremy Hunt. He’s a decent person and gave the loveliest and most gracious speech. I hope he takes the helm of the tory party for a while.
The polls seem to have got the majority right based on that sort of gap producing this kind of majority when in reality what’s happened is that Labour has won this sort of majority from a low turnout and its vote being hyper, hyper efficient.
I really think the polling companies are in big trouble.
I think, underneath the stonking majority, Labour insiders will be slightly disquieted this morning.
Very poor % of the vote, on low turnout. Challenges from the Gaza Left and the Greens, and from Reform on the Right. Loss of Debbonaire and Ashworth from the front bench.
One hopes this does not encourage Keir’s natural timidity, because “doing nothing” is one sure way to lose in 2029.
Labour are in a position where normally we'd say it will require everything to go their way in order to win the next general election. I kind of hope they do it, because I'd rather live in the world where things are plain sailing, but I sure as hell do not expect that.
Stayed the course, did a lot of hard work to help bring the party back from the brink.
Loses to a Gaza candidate as labour come back to power.
And what about Streeting? He only won by 500.
Does he stay put? Risk of him losing his seat could impact his chances of being next leader.
Hadn’t spotted that. Labour have an issue potentially in future. Holding on in the cities where the Gaza vote hit them but also holding on in the red wall and the new red seats in the shires. A coalition as potentially fragile as the Tory one in 2019.
By next time, hopefully, the Gaza loons will be neutered as it won’t be an issue.
Israel has been inept in Gaza trying to defeat Hamas but it won’t take them another five years.
I wonder if this will affect votes for 16-17 year olds.
We can be sure it will be something else by then. There’s always trouble in MENA. And there are other issues, like sharia, or criticism of Islam, to rile them.
Yes, sadly I think this may be the emergence of a voting bloc focused on religion and community grievance.
It must have been very close. They should lose that and East Antrim next time.
Given the vote shares in the Assembly elections should imply a fairly comfortable unionist win, I’m guessing that a lot of DUP voters must have switched to TUV, and a lot of SDLP votes to SF.
Yes.
For me 2 takeaways in NI:
1 - Persistence of Sinn Fein. 2 - Unionist shift, which I have not got my head around.
Areas of implications:
1 - Funding of NI. 2 - More than half of NI MPs not sitting in the Commons.
I also noticed Brexit is still very much an issue there. Partial explanation of the unionist shifts in at least one case, IIRC - too sleepy to remember the details, but one conceding DUP MP did ascribe his loss to TUV to it (I think|).
A host of SNP big names have become victims of a remarkable cull of Nationalist politicians across Scotland in the General Election. Swathes of Nat MPs have lost their seats already with the party on course to be reduced to a rump of just eight seats, according to pollsters.
While the likes of Stephen Flynn and Pete Wishart hung on, Joanna Cherry and Alyn Smith were among those to lose out in Edinburgh South West and Stirling and Strathallan respectively. John Nicolson's defeat in Alloa and Grangemouth has been greeted with joy on social media where he emerged as the Nat MP people most wanted to lose their seat.
Strategically I suspect the SNP has suffered a bigger defeat than the Conservatives - their money problems have just got a lot worse with a significant reduction in short money, which has been their main source of income for a while.
The Labour lead over Con is only 10%. How many polls came anywhere close to that?
The fact that the polls predicted a landslide and we got a landslide will mask some of this. But it was an absolute disaster for the pollsters. That can’t be stressed enough.
If the votes had fallen differently across the seats then this could easily have been a very slim Labour majority or even a HP. They’ve got lucky.
Reform and Labour both seem to have been overstated by a bit and a lot respectively. Cons understated.
Turnout effect maybe? I dunno. A weird time of year for an election too.
A May election would have worked better for the Tories.
It will be interesting to learn whether the postal vote fiasco and voter ID requirements suppressed the vote. Particularly for the Tories.
It will also be interesting to gauge the impact of misleading or outright fake social media as well, particularly in the seats where Gaza independents challenged Labour.
It’s possibly not dissimilar to the PSHE primary school protests that happened a few years back, based on the spreading of false info on closed social media like WhatsApp (“schools are teaching children to be gay” etc.). Back when I was a governor our school had to deal with this, and it was all coming from shit stirrers outside of the school community spreading lies. Thankfully the head (aided by a very helpful local councillor) addressed it head on with parents and tellingly it calmed down when anyone who didn’t actually have children at the school was barred from the engagement meetings.
MRPs I think are dead. I suppose they called a landslide right but they were all still way off?
YouGov and MIC did ok-ish. It hasn’t really changed my view that the YouGov ones are the ones I’ll look mostly at though.
Survation deserve a massive LOL.
“I will wait for Survation” has finally died.
YouGov’s final poll was I think Labour 39%, so still way out.
They must be asking the wrong people or people that are too politically engaged. Indeed SKS’s ratings went up throughout the campaign with every pollster but that looks different with far fewer people.
A host of SNP big names have become victims of a remarkable cull of Nationalist politicians across Scotland in the General Election. Swathes of Nat MPs have lost their seats already with the party on course to be reduced to a rump of just eight seats, according to pollsters.
While the likes of Stephen Flynn and Pete Wishart hung on, Joanna Cherry and Alyn Smith were among those to lose out in Edinburgh South West and Stirling and Strathallan respectively. John Nicolson's defeat in Alloa and Grangemouth has been greeted with joy on social media where he emerged as the Nat MP people most wanted to lose their seat.
WTF, how did that arsehole Wishart manage to get another 5 years troughing. 20+ years and has never ever done anything.
Because the increase in the Unionist vote went to Labour instead of the Conservatives. Another MRP failure. It is why I remained pretty sanguine about Tory prospects in Scotland. I think they will hold on in the border seats but that will be that.
A host of SNP big names have become victims of a remarkable cull of Nationalist politicians across Scotland in the General Election. Swathes of Nat MPs have lost their seats already with the party on course to be reduced to a rump of just eight seats, according to pollsters.
While the likes of Stephen Flynn and Pete Wishart hung on, Joanna Cherry and Alyn Smith were among those to lose out in Edinburgh South West and Stirling and Strathallan respectively. John Nicolson's defeat in Alloa and Grangemouth has been greeted with joy on social media where he emerged as the Nat MP people most wanted to lose their seat.
Stayed the course, did a lot of hard work to help bring the party back from the brink.
Loses to a Gaza candidate as labour come back to power.
And what about Streeting? He only won by 500.
Does he stay put? Risk of him losing his seat could impact his chances of being next leader.
Hadn’t spotted that. Labour have an issue potentially in future. Holding on in the cities where the Gaza vote hit them but also holding on in the red wall and the new red seats in the shires. A coalition as potentially fragile as the Tory one in 2019.
By next time, hopefully, the Gaza loons will be neutered as it won’t be an issue.
Israel has been inept in Gaza trying to defeat Hamas but it won’t take them another five years.
I wonder if this will affect votes for 16-17 year olds.
We can be sure it will be something else by then. There’s always trouble in MENA. And there are other issues, like sharia, or criticism of Islam, to rile them.
Yes, sadly I think this may be the emergence of a voting bloc focused on religion and community grievance.
Going to be a disaster in future with these halfwits voting for their barmy religions, UK will end up just like the Middle East.
It must have been very close. They should lose that and East Antrim next time.
Given the vote shares in the Assembly elections should imply a fairly comfortable unionist win, I’m guessing that a lot of DUP voters must have switched to TUV, and a lot of SDLP votes to SF.
Yes.
For me 2 takeaways in NI:
1 - Persistence of Sinn Fein. 2 - Unionist shift, which I have not got my head around.
Areas of implications:
1 - Funding of NI. 2 - More than half of NI MPs not sitting in the Commons.
Which, frankly, is the position Nicola should have adopted when all bar 3 Scottish MPs were SNP. If they don’t turn up now we would barely notice.
Also, I don’t know why the BBC decided to mess around with the exit poll post release. They just seem to have made their predictions worse.
Yes. They have often done that as the night’s gone on but usually it gets more accurate not less! It might just be a byproduct of the slightly nutty results in some places though.
The Labour lead over Con is only 10%. How many polls came anywhere close to that?
The fact that the polls predicted a landslide and we got a landslide will mask some of this. But it was an absolute disaster for the pollsters. That can’t be stressed enough.
If the votes had fallen differently across the seats then this could easily have been a very slim Labour majority or even a HP. They’ve got lucky.
I think circumstances made predicting this election very hard. It's a big change from the status quo, which makes it more difficult to predict; there were a lot of complicated and conflicting factors at play as the header points out; there were a lot of very close seat results where MoE shifts in vote share could lead to wide variations in seats won.
1. Labour to slightly stem the polling tide and land a (GB) vote share of above 40%, UK above 39%
Why: quite simply how few votes they need to actually gain to get there. A significant proportion of the work from a GB 32.9% last time out can be done by deaths, new voters, Tory abstentionism and the like, only 3-4% net need actually come from gaining switchers from other parties, and the people to do that are there imho.
2. That said Labour will lose votes to the left and will fail in at least half a dozen nominal defences:
Why: Hat tip to the poster who pointed me to the YouGov ethnic minority voter poll which had, iirc, Lab 43, Grn 26, Oth 10 for Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. That sounds tolerable for Labour, but still gives scope the quarter of those voters who live in the 23 constituencies where they account for 30%+ of the population and where the highest profile others are standing to account for a lot of that "Other" vote, and even then selectively. I think locally to me, Dewsbury & Batley will be amongst these and I think the winners will be low profile names - I don't necessarily think Galloway and Corbyn will figure, though Reform might.
3. Tory vote share will be under 25% (UK)
Why: They are too far below 25% in polling. This reverses an earlier prediction of mine saying they would be above it, though I retain my broad brush, Labour to win by 8-16%, which today's predictions just about allow.
4. We will be close to a situation where the identity of HM Opposition could be unclear for some time and may rely on alliance making, whether that is LD/APNI/Green or Con/DUP or even that Reform getting a look in down the line. There may be parliamentary shenanigans, and we may have different blocs providing LOTO during the course of the next parliament. It could be messy.
Why: Simply because I'm in this territory with predictions 1-3.
Morning. Does anyone have a link to full results in a tabular form? Pulpstar's spreadsheets don't seem to have it. I'm looking at sheet 3 and the results are not visible at all. Is there another source anyone knows of?
It must have been very close. They should lose that and East Antrim next time.
Given the vote shares in the Assembly elections should imply a fairly comfortable unionist win, I’m guessing that a lot of DUP voters must have switched to TUV, and a lot of SDLP votes to SF.
Yes.
For me 2 takeaways in NI:
1 - Persistence of Sinn Fein. 2 - Unionist shift, which I have not got my head around.
Areas of implications:
1 - Funding of NI. 2 - More than half of NI MPs not sitting in the Commons.
A host of SNP big names have become victims of a remarkable cull of Nationalist politicians across Scotland in the General Election. Swathes of Nat MPs have lost their seats already with the party on course to be reduced to a rump of just eight seats, according to pollsters.
While the likes of Stephen Flynn and Pete Wishart hung on, Joanna Cherry and Alyn Smith were among those to lose out in Edinburgh South West and Stirling and Strathallan respectively. John Nicolson's defeat in Alloa and Grangemouth has been greeted with joy on social media where he emerged as the Nat MP people most wanted to lose their seat.
Strategically I suspect the SNP has suffered a bigger defeat than the Conservatives - their money problems have just got a lot worse with a significant reduction in short money, which has been their main source of income for a while.
Well I don't think we need trouble ourselves with a Scottish Independence Referendum for at least five years either.
Pulled an all-nighter and have just had 3 hours sleep.
What a great night with some fascinating results. The worst election for the Conservatives in their history.
The Liz Truss moment is pretty astonishing.
Great to see some of the other Nasty Party booted out by the electorate including Jacob Rees-Mogg, Therese Coffey, Penny Mordaunt, Johnny Mercer.
I’m quite pleased for Jeremy Hunt. He’s a decent person and gave the loveliest and most gracious speech. I hope he takes the helm of the tory party for a while.
Thrilled to see George Galloway given the boot.
And the Reform surge didn’t particularly happen.
15% of the vote? Almost exactly as predicted. Lots of people on here (including you?) were saying it would be far below that. For better or worse the surge happened.
It must have been very close. They should lose that and East Antrim next time.
Given the vote shares in the Assembly elections should imply a fairly comfortable unionist win, I’m guessing that a lot of DUP voters must have switched to TUV, and a lot of SDLP votes to SF.
Yes.
For me 2 takeaways in NI:
1 - Persistence of Sinn Fein. 2 - Unionist shift, which I have not got my head around.
Areas of implications:
1 - Funding of NI. 2 - More than half of NI MPs not sitting in the Commons.
I also noticed Brexit is still very much an issue there. Partial explanation of the unionist shifts in at least one case, IIRC - too sleepy to remember the details, but one conceding DUP MP did ascribe his loss to TUV to it (I think|).
Chris Skidmore has identified the big reason the Tories lost.
“ When Rishi Sunak personally decided to row back on net zero and climate action, promoting new oil and gas and opening a new coalmine, I stated that this would become the greatest mistake of his premiership. It turns out it was also his greatest political error, as the party tonight lost not only in the “red wall” but across swathes of seats in the southern “blue wall”. Seats where voters believed the Conservatives cared about conserving our environment turned against Sunak’s hardline rhetoric.”
How long until we can expect Rishi's resignation as leader of the Conservatives?
How long before we can expect Rishi's resignation as MP for Richmond?
By Sunday, if I was him, I'd be relaxing by the pool at my OC mansion enjoying diet Coke and sandwiches with my incredibly beautiful and wealthy wife.
Listening to his speech at the count conceding to Starmer on the national level - which I thought was classy to be fair - he did specifically indicate he'd be staying, for a while at least. He didn't really need to say anything, so I do think he'll stay a year or two at least.
Also, whilst I'd be by the pool myself, ideally with the fragrant Mrs Sunak (though I may not be her type), it isn't really his style. He's a driven man, and it just isn't him. An opportunity will come along outside Westminster at some point and he'll probably take it, but I think he will studiously try to do some ship-steadying first, offer support to old allies and new MPs etc. He isn't a Johnson or a Truss - he's a crap politician, but he's conscientious and not wholly selfish.
He’s a decent and capable man but a really bad politician. Osborne was spot on overnight. He got dealt a really tough hand but he needed to draw a line between him, Boris’s lies and Truss’s incompetence. Instead he focused on trying to keep a disparate party together and ended up with a completely incoherent platform as a result.
The Labour lead over Con is only 10%. How many polls came anywhere close to that?
The fact that the polls predicted a landslide and we got a landslide will mask some of this. But it was an absolute disaster for the pollsters. That can’t be stressed enough.
If the votes had fallen differently across the seats then this could easily have been a very slim Labour majority or even a HP. They’ve got lucky.
I think circumstances made predicting this election very hard. It's a big change from the status quo, which makes it more difficult to predict; there were a lot of complicated and conflicting factors at play as the header points out; there were a lot of very close seat results where MoE shifts in vote share could lead to wide variations in seats won.
Because of that it was an interesting election.
I suppose it was hard to pickup the independents.
Opinium though after all that attention around adjusting their methodology many moons ago, was still very wrong.
Morning. Does anyone have a link to full results in a tabular form? Pulpstar's spreadsheets don't seem to have it. I'm looking at sheet 3 and the results are not visible at all. Is there another source anyone knows of?
Democracy club spreadsheets need updating then it's just a bit of cleaning up in my spreadsheet will do later x
How the heck did the Lib Dems get 70+ seats on that vote share? Must be some Reform knobbling of the Tories in some of those seats.
The Cons have a big problem. Chasing Reform will lose the reluctant loyalists in the centre, but it will look appealing when they start mentally adding their vote shares in lost seats. They need to win back some Lab and LD switchers and also some Reform switchers, but the only way to do that is not to go left or right but actually fins solutions for the people who have rightly given up on them. That won't be easy, so we're more likely to see a Reform chasing populist leader for now I guess.
The make up of the surviving Con MPs, given the leadership voting rules, is going to be critical here.
ETA: That said, re Lib Dems, their haul is actually pretty proportional to vote, isn't it?
Comments
of Islam, to rile them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001204
UUP and Alliance generated more votes than SDLP but returned less MPs. Where do you stand on that system?
Oh and wtf was disgraced former MP Keith Vaz thinking? Labour, on the other hand in Chingford deserve a good slap.
In retrospect it might have been the strongest argument for waiting till later in the year when Farage might have been forced to choose between his burgeoning US progress in grifting republican voters vs his an (apparently) fading UK one. Or perhaps Farage could have been bought off earlier with a peerage? (Services to Brexit, etc etc.)
Very poor % of the vote, on low turnout.
Challenges from the Gaza Left and the Greens, and from Reform on the Right.
Loss of Debbonaire and Ashworth from the front bench.
One hopes this does not encourage Keir’s natural timidity, because “doing nothing” is one sure way to lose in 2029.
Centre/left ~62%
We're getting a broadly centre/left government.
And the right will only again become competitive when it captures the centre.
As the right argued back during the AV referendum, FPTP just kinda works.
Unless the right want to relitigate all of Cameron's referendums?
Many of the seats were pretty accurate as well, albeit with a few rather off.
Of all of them, I think that one stood up best.
I have to say I am as surprised as anyone to see Labour so low. But what I am more surprised about is how well Labour has done considering. So either McSweeney knew all along and so did the setup based on that assumption or there is something weird going on.
Turnout effect maybe? I dunno. A weird time of year for an election too.
I think enough left wing voters would have opted for Labour for them to win, but the Tories could have saved a lot of seats.
An, of course, Gaza could just as easily get worse, not better.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/N05000006
It will be interesting to learn whether the postal vote fiasco and voter ID requirements suppressed the vote. Particularly for the Tories.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001443
Firstly, many thanks to Nigel Farage for making a Labour landslide possible.
Secondly, my hunch on Keighley staying Tory was correct. The closed tip in Ilkley and all that.
Thirdly, congratulations to Sir Philip on winning his bet. Good riddance.
Fourthly, The Truss - Ha, Ha, Ha.
(Too old now of course, but seriously: Clarke was the PM that should have been - Euroskepticism tore the Tory company apart & led inevitably to their worst electoral decisions. Not Brexit per se, but almost everything around it & how it was implemented was driven by the nutter faction. Turning away from Clarke was emblematic of that shift away from the centre that has eventually led to this electoral wipe-out.)
The next GE is all to play for. Who the players will be and what their offering is: that will be fascinating.
SKS is going to have to deliver a good government to solidify the Labour vote in time for the next GE. It isn’t inconceivable that 5 years of relative calm without Tory psychodrama might help him improve his vote share next time round. But it is not a given.
We are in for a fascinating Parliament everyone.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001586
I mean, logically, of course Truss was going to lose. It's only psephology and UNS and precedent that made us think it was unthinkable.
Perhaps in Truss's case, the precedent was Clegg/Sheffield Hallam.
But the results are so slender.....
Also, whilst I'd be by the pool myself, ideally with the fragrant Mrs Sunak (though I may not be her type), it isn't really his style. He's a driven man, and it just isn't him. An opportunity will come along outside Westminster at some point and he'll probably take it, but I think he will studiously try to do some ship-steadying first, offer support to old allies and new MPs etc. He isn't a Johnson or a Truss - he's a crap politician, but he's conscientious and not wholly selfish.
For me 2 takeaways in NI:
1 - Persistence of Sinn Fein.
2 - Unionist shift, which I have not got my head around.
Areas of implications:
1 - Funding of NI.
2 - More than half of NI MPs not sitting in the Commons.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001071
I note Paul Waugh in Rochdale.
I suspect Suella and Farage are in secret talks as we speak.
Pulled an all-nighter and have just had 3 hours sleep.
What a great night with some fascinating results. The worst election for the Conservatives in their history.
The Liz Truss moment is pretty astonishing.
Great to see some of the other Nasty Party booted out by the electorate including Jacob Rees-Mogg, Therese Coffey, Penny Mordaunt, Johnny Mercer.
I’m quite pleased for Jeremy Hunt. He’s a decent person and gave the loveliest and most gracious speech. I hope he takes the helm of the tory party for a while.
Thrilled to see George Galloway given the boot.
And the Reform surge didn’t particularly happen.
I really think the polling companies are in big trouble.
Survation deserve a massive LOL.
Although, being Lib Dems I guess it will be more akin to a Quaker prayer session than a rave.
I wonder if there are any stars in there, allowing Ed to refresh his front bench a bit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001098
It’s possibly not dissimilar to the PSHE primary school protests that happened a few years back, based on the spreading of false info on closed social media like WhatsApp (“schools are teaching children to be gay” etc.). Back when I was a governor our school had to deal with this, and it was all coming from shit stirrers outside of the school community spreading lies. Thankfully the head (aided by a very helpful local councillor) addressed it head on with parents and tellingly it calmed down when anyone who didn’t actually have children at the school was barred from the engagement meetings.
YouGov’s final poll was I think Labour 39%, so still way out.
They must be asking the wrong people or people that are too politically engaged. Indeed SKS’s ratings went up throughout the campaign with every pollster but that looks different with far fewer people.
I never believed the wild MRPs and thought they were way out. The normal pollsters were closer.
Happy and now it’s time for Labour to get on with it and govern Britain competently.
They have a blank canvas on which they can now start painting the outline of their next voter coalition.
Because of that it was an interesting election.
Saturday morning?
More female MPs elected than ever before
1. Labour to slightly stem the polling tide and land a (GB) vote share of above 40%, UK above 39%
Why: quite simply how few votes they need to actually gain to get there. A significant proportion of the work from a GB 32.9% last time out can be done by deaths, new voters, Tory abstentionism and the like, only 3-4% net need actually come from gaining switchers from other parties, and the people to do that are there imho.
2. That said Labour will lose votes to the left and will fail in at least half a dozen nominal defences:
Why: Hat tip to the poster who pointed me to the YouGov ethnic minority voter poll which had, iirc, Lab 43, Grn 26, Oth 10 for Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. That sounds tolerable for Labour, but still gives scope the quarter of those voters who live in the 23 constituencies where they account for 30%+ of the population and where the highest profile others are standing to account for a lot of that "Other" vote, and even then selectively. I think locally to me, Dewsbury & Batley will be amongst these and I think the winners will be low profile names - I don't necessarily think Galloway and Corbyn will figure, though Reform might.
3. Tory vote share will be under 25% (UK)
Why: They are too far below 25% in polling. This reverses an earlier prediction of mine saying they would be above it, though I retain my broad brush, Labour to win by 8-16%, which today's predictions just about allow.
4. We will be close to a situation where the identity of HM Opposition could be unclear for some time and may rely on alliance making, whether that is LD/APNI/Green or Con/DUP or even that Reform getting a look in down the line. There may be parliamentary shenanigans, and we may have different blocs providing LOTO during the course of the next parliament. It could be messy.
Why: Simply because I'm in this territory with predictions 1-3.
Will reply to this and review.
This will be a hard working government I think looking to try and win back a bit of confidence in politics in general.
Seems doubtful.
Opinium though after all that attention around adjusting their methodology many moons ago, was still very wrong.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/dissolution-peerages-2024
How the heck did the Lib Dems get 70+ seats on that vote share? Must be some Reform knobbling of the Tories in some of those seats.
The Cons have a big problem. Chasing Reform will lose the reluctant loyalists in the centre, but it will look appealing when they start mentally adding their vote shares in lost seats. They need to win back some Lab and LD switchers and also some Reform switchers, but the only way to do that is not to go left or right but actually fins solutions for the people who have rightly given up on them. That won't be easy, so we're more likely to see a Reform chasing populist leader for now I guess.
The make up of the surviving Con MPs, given the leadership voting rules, is going to be critical here.
ETA: That said, re Lib Dems, their haul is actually pretty proportional to vote, isn't it?