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Labour wins a majority but it is a bit complicated – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,622
edited July 2024 in General
Labour wins a majority but it is a bit complicated – politicalbetting.com

Superb chart here from @vin_viz that illustrates one of the key shifts that has brought us this election result:Reform is now the party for people who voted Leave.The Conservatives are the party for … ? pic.twitter.com/ClZca4wjf2

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Comments

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Witney falls to the Liberal Democrats
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    FT data bod called it right with his charts the other day.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    pigeon said:

    Witney falls to the Liberal Democrats

    They used the weigh David Cameron's votes there.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    pigeon said:

    Witney falls to the Liberal Democrats

    And Guildford
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,984
    Reform at 15%!

    I can afford that bike.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,101
    Reform is now the party for people who voted Leave.

    The Conservatives are the party for ... ?

    Shotgun owners ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,261
    Lots of subplots in this election.

    Biggest subplot is the Lib Dems. A stunning result for them.

    Subplots also for Reform, Greens and Gaza affiliated candidates. And the SNP, in a bad way for them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,847
    BBC don't have the result in North Herefordshire, not B'ham Yardley.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001395
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001100
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Another safe Labour seat that came very close to flipping Indy


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,499
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I want to be up for Liz Truss losing but I am knackered, off to bed, see you all in a bit.

    Same here, good "night" everyone, hope your bets paid off!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,847
    Gordon & Buchan -> Tory hold

    Con 14418
    SNP 13540
    LD 7307
    Lab 4686
    Ref 3897

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/S14000091
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 439
    @edconwaysky

    The Conservatives have just set an all-time record in the number of deposits lost at this election. They’re up to 30 and counting, beating their record of 28, from the Oct 1974 election…
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,291
    Poor Reform, 4 seats is some sort of bridge head but devastating when the exit poll said 13.

    Well done those who predicted single figures.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    @OldBasing Baso has gone Labour.

    I tipped this many moons ago.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,688
    Witney!!!!!

    This is absolutely incredible. Delighted about Tewkesbury too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    edited July 2024
    Conservatives under Sunak were the party for softer Leavers, Reform the party for those favouring harder Leave it seems
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    In 2019 some people chided Tories for being too triumphant on the night. As was said then, and bears repeating now, the night of a landslide victory is a fair time to indulge in a bit of gloating and triumphalism. A come down will follow in time.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,992
    Laura Kuenssberg looking like she's about to burst into tears.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC don't have the result in North Herefordshire, not B'ham Yardley.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001395
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001100

    Yardley now updated, Phillips defeats the Workers Party of Britain by about 700 votes. Wes Streeting also held on against an independent in Ilford North by about 500 votes. Some exotic results happening.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 104
    Result of the day for the Conservatives is Keighley and Ilkley. Robbie Moore holds on. Knew he was rated, but that is an incredible result.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Theresa Villiers gone! Yay!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,847
    Tewkesbury = big LD win

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001542
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    Tim_in_Ruislip said:

    @edconwaysky

    The Conservatives have just set an all-time record in the number of deposits lost at this election. They’re up to 30 and counting, beating their record of 28, from the Oct 1974 election…

    That's *their* record, not an overall record.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 917
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I want to be up for Liz Truss losing but I am knackered, off to bed, see you all in a bit.

    I'm staying up for the palace
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    edited July 2024
    Right off to bed, will catch up on the Truss result later and then our first change of party in government for 14 years
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    Is Banbury in the south-east ?!

    I suppose so, you need the line somewhere.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,847
    Lab hold Bethnal Green by 1,689 votes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001086
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Poor Reform, 4 seats is some sort of bridge head but devastating when the exit poll said 13.

    Well done those who predicted single figures.

    Double figures is so tough to make, but after some stunning predictions it will be a bit rough for them, even though it is a great result for a party that barely existed a few years ago (albeit with the pedigree of UKIP as was).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Poor Reform, 4 seats is some sort of bridge head but devastating when the exit poll said 13.

    Well done those who predicted single figures.

    All Reform have achieved is to gift a landslide to Labour on 35% of the vote. But nevermind, Nigel has had his ego stroked...
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    HYUFD said:

    Conservatives under Sunak were the party for softer Leavers, Reform the party for those favouring harder Leave it seems

    I'm sure there's more going on than old divisions over Brexit at this stage. Working out exactly what that is may take some time...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,984
    Why has no one commented on the St Ives result?

    How often is it that someone with two first names (Andrew George) beats someone with two first names (Derek Thomas)?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    I don't check in on Owen Jones twitter feed very often...my god it is proper unhinged stuff these days.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 142
    Ton up for Tories.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,688
    Andy_JS said:

    Gordon & Buchan -> Tory hold

    Con 14418
    SNP 13540
    LD 7307
    Lab 4686
    Ref 3897

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/S14000091

    Another squeeze vote in Gordon. Lib Dems back in the fight.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    HYUFD said:

    Right off to bed, will catch up on the Truss result later and then our first change of party in government for 14 years

    Yep, me too. Been an interesting night, a mix of good and bad for all persuasions.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    rcs1000 said:

    Why has no one commented on the St Ives result?

    How often is it that someone with two first names (Andrew George) beats someone with two first names (Derek Thomas)?

    Happens all the time in America.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,847
    Labour's share is currently 34.8%.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Con reach 100 seats
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,031
    @hyufd re previous thread - Yes Guildford shouldn't have been a surprise but after Godalming and Ash and then a recount in Guildford which turned out to be technical one I was getting seriously worried, especially after all the work I have put in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Did Alba get anything anywhere so far?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,847
    Pulpstar said:

    Is Banbury in the south-east ?!

    I suppose so, you need the line somewhere.

    Officially, but culturally it's in the West Midlands (southern quadrant).
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,300
    Bowie holds, DROSS paid the price
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's share is currently 34.8%.

    Hilariously low!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,291
    GIN1138 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Poor Reform, 4 seats is some sort of bridge head but devastating when the exit poll said 13.

    Well done those who predicted single figures.

    All Reform have achieved is to gift a landslide to Labour on 35% of the vote. But nevermind, Nigel has had his ego stroked...
    Your annoyance is comforting, thank you.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    If Farage hadn't entered the race the Tories might have been able to drag it back to HP lol
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Seems as though it turned out to be an interesting night for everyone, despite the expected result there were enough twists.

    And as terrible as the results still are for the Tories, apart from the SNP pretty much all major parties would have taken this result perhaps a few weeks ago?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    Bah, Tories win Maidstone and Malling. Ended the night down £8. Could have been worse.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,261
    Philip Davies has won!

    [his bet that he would lose in Shipley]
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,159
    edited July 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    Why has no one commented on the St Ives result?

    How often is it that someone with two first names (Andrew George) beats someone with two first names (Derek Thomas)?

    I can't remember the runners-up , but my constituency MSPs since the creation of the Scottish Parliament have been Wendy Alexander, Hugh Henry and Tom Arthur.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    Pulpstar said:

    If Farage hadn't entered the race the Tories might have been able to drag it back to HP lol

    I don't think they would have done that. Sunak is just too poor at campaigning, he doesn't inspire anybody. But it wouldn't have been a super majority that's for sure. And of course Farage only entered the race, because Sunak spent the first week of the campaign being extra useless.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,787
    Andy_JS said:

    Tewkesbury = big LD win

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001542

    It was 88 in their target list, but the LDs did well in the locals and have been advancing in the Cotswolds generally.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,405
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's share is currently 34.8%.

    Missed all my long shot constituency bets so far but 5/1 on Labour under 38% means I'm in profit already.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Lib Dems at 60 seats so the original exit poll looks almost spot on for them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    Woking not even close:

    LD: 50%
    Con: 27%
    Reform: 10%
    Lab: 9%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Andy_JS said:

    Keir Starmer deserves credit for solving the Alternative Schleswig-Holstein Question — which is how to win a 160 seat majority with 34% of the vote.

    They're just maintaining the direct link with the local voter.

    Tory Manifesto
    We remain committed to the First Past the Post system for elections, maintaining the direct link with the local voter.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,984
    OK.

    So I've won big on turnout and on Reform share, and lost small on LibDem seats. I've won just over half my constituency bets, sadly not including @RochdalePioneers seat, but given none of them were below evens, it's a healthy set of results.

    Now, about that new bike.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,847
    One of the big stories of the night is the sudden success of the Workers Party of Britain. Usually they struggle to get more than 100 votes but they've been getting tens of thousands in some places.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,125
    Are there any more legit RFM targets besides Truss? RFM 3-4 seats is still 5 on betfair
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    With the bulk of the seats declared, Reform plus Green = 21% of the popular vote, 1% of the seats in the Commons.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,261
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's share is currently 34.8%.

    Hilariously low!
    Indeed. Conservatives are laughing uproariously at the low Labour vote share.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Lib Dems at 60 seats so the original exit poll looks almost spot on for them.

    The variation the LDs can achieve on minimal changes of the vote is remarkable.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 439
    edited July 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    Keir Starmer deserves credit for solving the Alternative Schleswig-Holstein Question — which is how to win a 160 seat majority with 34% of the vote.

    It's posts like this wot keep me coming back to this website.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    Andy_JS said:

    One of the big stories of the night is the sudden success of the Workers Party of Britain. Usually they struggle to get more than 100 votes but they've been getting tens of thousands in some places.

    But the terrible terrible news that their leader got voted out.....
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,766
    It is not good for our country that the incoming government has won a huge majority on 34% of the vote.

    Will we see the end of FPTP?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Farage hadn't entered the race the Tories might have been able to drag it back to HP lol

    I don't think they would have done that. Sunak is just too poor at campaigning, he doesn't inspire anybody. But it wouldn't have been a super majority that's for sure. And of course Farage only entered the race, because Sunak spent the first week of the campaign being extra useless.
    No he didn't.

    He entered it because he's an egotistical prick who can't bear to be out of the limelight.

    It's going to be very interesting to see how long it will take before he and Tice have a major falling out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    edited July 2024
    ydoethur said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Farage hadn't entered the race the Tories might have been able to drag it back to HP lol

    I don't think they would have done that. Sunak is just too poor at campaigning, he doesn't inspire anybody. But it wouldn't have been a super majority that's for sure. And of course Farage only entered the race, because Sunak spent the first week of the campaign being extra useless.
    No he didn't.

    He entered it because he's an egotistical prick who can't bear to be out of the limelight.

    It's going to be very interesting to see how long it will take before he and Tice have a major falling out.
    I bet if Sunak had come out the blocks strong, he would have stuck on GB News getting his nice pay packet moaning from the sidelines.

    But Sunak literally spent the week going ok, how can we f##k up today....the Telegraph are on the phone, they want a policy, quick, wooden toys, no, National Service, yeah go with that...do we have any details of how it will work...no...but nobody will ask anyway.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    edited July 2024
    numbertwelve said:

    It is not good for our country that the incoming government has won a huge majority on 34% of the vote.

    Will we see the end of FPTP?

    I actually completely agree with this.

    It also makes sense to get 16 and 17 year olds voting, at least the low percentages might be a bit more representative.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    kle4 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Lib Dems at 60 seats so the original exit poll looks almost spot on for them.

    The variation the LDs can achieve on minimal changes of the vote is remarkable.
    The LDs are still short of the number they would get under true PR.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    rcs1000 said:

    OK.

    So I've won big on turnout and on Reform share, and lost small on LibDem seats. I've won just over half my constituency bets, sadly not including @RochdalePioneers seat, but given none of them were below evens, it's a healthy set of results.

    Now, about that new bike.

    Lot of ex-MPs this morning could do with borrowing one, a la Norman Tebbit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Really annoyed Douglas Ross being a shit may have given the SNP another MP.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,405
    ydoethur said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Farage hadn't entered the race the Tories might have been able to drag it back to HP lol

    I don't think they would have done that. Sunak is just too poor at campaigning, he doesn't inspire anybody. But it wouldn't have been a super majority that's for sure. And of course Farage only entered the race, because Sunak spent the first week of the campaign being extra useless.
    No he didn't.

    He entered it because he's an egotistical prick who can't bear to be out of the limelight.

    It's going to be very interesting to see how long it will take before he and Tice have a major falling out.
    It's not like Lee Anderson or Rupert Lowe are shrinking violets either.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    numbertwelve said:

    It is not good for our country that the incoming government has won a huge majority on 34% of the vote.

    Will we see the end of FPTP?

    No.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,688
    Woking, Surrey Heath, Guildford... A fantastic result. Not even close.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,402
    tlg86 said:

    Woking not even close:

    LD: 50%
    Con: 27%
    Reform: 10%
    Lab: 9%

    Well done to the forgiving 27% who refused to allow the Tory Council lumbering them with a couple of billion quid in debt to disuade them from staying blue. Turning the other cheek - good people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Cornwall going red was not really on my radar.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Lib Dems at 60 seats so the original exit poll looks almost spot on for them.

    The variation the LDs can achieve on minimal changes of the vote is remarkable.
    The LDs are still short of the number they would get under true PR.
    Indeed, but a lot closer to it than they usually manage!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Harper loses by 300 with Reform getting 8,000
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,847
    edited July 2024
    I've set myself the task of quickly glancing at every result by 8am...
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Green hold in Brighton Pavilion. They've achieved their four seat target.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,291
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Farage hadn't entered the race the Tories might have been able to drag it back to HP lol

    I don't think they would have done that. Sunak is just too poor at campaigning, he doesn't inspire anybody. But it wouldn't have been a super majority that's for sure. And of course Farage only entered the race, because Sunak spent the first week of the campaign being extra useless.
    No he didn't.

    He entered it because he's an egotistical prick who can't bear to be out of the limelight.

    It's going to be very interesting to see how long it will take before he and Tice have a major falling out.
    I bet if Sunak had come out the blocks strong, he would have stuck on GB News getting his nice pay packet moaning from the sidelines.
    There was never anything there for Sunak to campaign on. Getting a few flights off and a corresponding fall in boats, even for a while, was really his last hope. Election timing was catastrophic.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,847
    edited July 2024
    No result so far in Priti Patel's seat. Could she be in trouble?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001592
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Mark Harper gone
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,261
    edited July 2024
    Pulpstar said:

    If Farage hadn't entered the race the Tories might have been able to drag it back to HP lol

    I think any talk of Conservatives moving to centre ground has gone now. They will be after the Reform vote on this exact analysis.

    Which is probably bad for them strategically.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    kle4 said:

    Cornwall going red was not really on my radar.

    Partly red, and it's not unprecedented. Labour has held seats there before.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    numbertwelve said:

    It is not good for our country that the incoming government has won a huge majority on 34% of the vote.

    Will we see the end of FPTP?

    That would be a positive outcome of this weird election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,049
    Tim Montgomerie delighted IDS won
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 439
    Apparently Khaled Mahmoud has lost to a Gaza indy in Perry Barr
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Where will be the safest seat for each party?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    tlg86 said:

    Woking not even close:

    LD: 50%
    Con: 27%
    Reform: 10%
    Lab: 9%

    Well done to the forgiving 27% who refused to allow the Tory Council lumbering them with a couple of billion quid in debt to disuade them from staying blue. Turning the other cheek - good people.
    The Lib Dem councillors voted for the twin towers...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,755
    edited July 2024
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Farage hadn't entered the race the Tories might have been able to drag it back to HP lol

    I don't think they would have done that. Sunak is just too poor at campaigning, he doesn't inspire anybody. But it wouldn't have been a super majority that's for sure. And of course Farage only entered the race, because Sunak spent the first week of the campaign being extra useless.
    No he didn't.

    He entered it because he's an egotistical prick who can't bear to be out of the limelight.

    It's going to be very interesting to see how long it will take before he and Tice have a major falling out.
    I bet if Sunak had come out the blocks strong, he would have stuck on GB News getting his nice pay packet moaning from the sidelines.
    There was never anything there for Sunak to campaign on. Getting a few flights off and a corresponding fall in boats, even for a while, was really his last hope. Election timing was catastrophic.
    It was a very difficult hand, but I think a boring sterotypical Tory pro-business would have worked a lot better than National Service, Triple Lock++++, cut uni courses, it was proper trolleying all over the place.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 142
    kle4 said:

    Really annoyed Douglas Ross being a shit may have given the SNP another MP.

    He's always been one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Tim_in_Ruislip said:

    Apparently Khaled Mahmoud has lost to a Gaza indy in Perry Barr

    I will confess the success of the Gaza indys, though impressive, is another area where I thought the dog would not bark.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Vine has now embarked on the obligatory review of dreadful historic election defeats.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,847
    Tories hold West Aberdeenshire

    Con 17428
    SNP 13987
    Lab 6397
    LD 6342
    Ref 3497
    Grn 1032

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/S14000058
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Christ, Christchurch held by Cons - Christopher Chope still in HoC?
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