Blimey, just woken up. If I'm reading it right Reform have the same number of MPs as the pro-Gaza single issue MPs group. That's something of a deflated balloon for Farage isn't it?
North East Herts has gone Labour, by about 2,000 votes. The Reform effect at work again - this seat survived the Blair landslides with room to spare.
The boundaries have changed over time, of course, but the last time my town had a Labour MP it was Shirley Williams representing the old Hitchin constituency in the 1970 Parliament. It's quite something.
The best thing about British democracy is when the actual head of government has to stand in a leisure centre at 5 am beside a guy with a bin on his head to find out if he still has a job.
Blimey, just woken up. If I'm reading it right Reform have the same number of MPs as the pro-Gaza single issue MPs group. That's something of a deflated balloon for Farage isn't it?
To be fair, Adam in Leicester South campaigned on quite a few issues, not just Gaza.
Interesting to see that Liz Kendall did much better in Leicester West than Lab did in South or East
I am surprisingly optimistic. This Labour majority is built on sand, and I think it will be easier to bully them from the left than for them to appeal to right wing voters. If Labour had kept the popular stuff (renationalisation of water and rail, for example - that even most Tory voters like the idea of) they would have likely done much better. This result is a clear dismissal of the Tory party, but not a grand endorsement of Starmer’s cynical politics of thin gruel.
Blimey, just woken up. If I'm reading it right Reform have the same number of MPs as the pro-Gaza single issue MPs group. That's something of a deflated balloon for Farage isn't it?
4. And all senior key personnel not nutters who dudnt expect to win before 10pm last night Suspect farage is actually quite relieved.
The best thing about British democracy is when the actual head of government has to stand in a leisure centre at 5 am beside a guy with a bin on his head to find out if he still has a job.
The best thing about British democracy is when the actual head of government has to stand in a leisure centre at 5 am beside a guy with a bin on his head to find out if he still has a job.
I like the fact that they pre-order the furniture removal van and have it waiting outside Downing Street from 8am on the day after the election.
Very symbolic
I think it's a bit of a bloody imposition. In the US, they have the common decency to give the incumbent a good couple of months to foment a violent uprising and pack as many top secret documents into their suitcase as possible before getting them to leave. Much more civilised.
If this is Sir John's swansong, he's signing off on a great prediction from a very difficult and unusual election.
I do agree but I think his call (a few minutes ago) that Reform swung the election is misguided. That's only true if you assume everyone who voted Reform would have voted Conservative otherwise. I don't believe that for a minute. Many would not have voted and plenty would have voted Labour.
Labour would still have won even if Farage was still palling around with Trump in the US.
JC - So far, the Conservatives have lost 173 seats. In 124 of these, the Reform vote was greater than the margin of the Conservatives' defeat. Of these seats, 99 were won by Labour, 19 by the Lib Dems, two by nationalists, and four by Reform themselves. Of course, not everybody who voted Reform would have otherwise voted Conservative, but they most certainly voted Conservative in 2019.
JC - One feature of tonight's results is how the advances that the Conservatives secured in Leave-voting areas after the EU referendum, most notably in 2019, have been entirely lost. Compared with 2019, support for the Conservatives is down by 12 points in seats where less than 45% voted Leave.
In contrast, support for the party is down by 27 points in seats where more than 65% voted Leave. However, the pattern of losses in Conservative support since 2015 - before the EU referendum - is more or less the same everywhere.
Support for the party is down by 12 points, compared with 2015, in seats where less than 45% voted Leave, while it is down by nine points where more than 65% voted Leave.
If this is Sir John's swansong, he's signing off on a great prediction from a very difficult and unusual election.
I do agree but I think his call (a few minutes ago) that Reform swung the election is misguided. That's only true if you assume everyone who voted Reform would have voted Conservative otherwise. I don't believe that for a minute. Many would not have voted and plenty would have voted Labour.
Labour would still have won even if Farage was still palling around with Trump in the US.
Reform got Labour a landslide, Starmer would probably only have scraped home to a UK wide majority otherwise helped by Labour gains in Scotland
Blimey, just woken up. If I'm reading it right Reform have the same number of MPs as the pro-Gaza single issue MPs group. That's something of a deflated balloon for Farage isn't it?
4. And all senior key personnel not nutters who dudnt expect to win before 10pm last night Suspect farage is actually quite relieved.
Comments
LD 40
Con 27
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001292
In the end, it wasn't even close.
Tories back to 136 again
Lab 408
Lab 136
LD 66
SNP 8
PC 4
My forecast was Lab 407, Con 127, LD 70
The boundaries have changed over time, of course, but the last time my town had a Labour MP it was Shirley Williams representing the old Hitchin constituency in the 1970 Parliament. It's quite something.
https://bsky.app/profile/iaincoleman.bsky.social/post/3kwizht3xnh2k
I feel like they could have just left it alone.
They have Con Mid Sussex candidate mis-stated by 10,000
BBC says 4,474
Correct figure is 14,474
How long till they fix it?
Interesting to see that Liz Kendall did much better in Leicester West than Lab did in South or East
For her.
Not for the rest of us.
But on a night like to night, it's hard to apply that rule.
Estimated seat change = +58
They should change their symbol from a bird to a paddleboard
John Curtice.
Very symbolic
Scottish voters: no thank you
Brighton Pavilion Green hold
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001425
Labour would still have won even if Farage was still palling around with Trump in the US.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001102
In contrast, support for the party is down by 27 points in seats where more than 65% voted Leave. However, the pattern of losses in Conservative support since 2015 - before the EU referendum - is more or less the same everywhere.
Support for the party is down by 12 points, compared with 2015, in seats where less than 45% voted Leave, while it is down by nine points where more than 65% voted Leave.
Still waiting for North Herefordshire?
https://x.com/jonwillchambers/status/1809082946281746722
Lab 17,893
Green 7,997
Con 8,230
LD 3,949
Ind 1,833
SDP 784
I called correctly as a Green second place, but thought it would be in the teens:
Lab 37.6 (-13.8)
Green 26.3 (+22.5)
Con 16.3 (-20.5)
RefUK 15.4 (+12)
LD 4.3 (-0.7)
No Ind, so Green got a strong student plus Gaza vote.