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Is this going to be this year’s Portillo moment as Jeremy Hunt holds on. – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 5 in General
Is this going to be this year’s Portillo moment as Jeremy Hunt holds on. – politicalbetting.com

Itv saying looks like Liz Truss will lose, happy Christmas everyone

Read the full story here

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    HasToBeHunt
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    edited July 5
    Second like Lib Dems in Godalming.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 5
    JC - Labour are continuing to progress towards their expected landslide victory, winning previously safe Tory seats across the country.

    Their gains are largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.

    Labour's own vote is expected to be up by just under four points across the country, entirely as a result of a 20 point increase in support in Scotland.

    In Wales, the party's vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party's vote is largely unchanged from 2019.

    ---

    So JC is saying 36% Labour, 24% Tory.

    I did say golden rule used to be, take lowest Labour polling, highest Tory and you won't be far off.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Rishi re-elected!
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    A lot of ‘a source close to’ and ‘I’m hearing’ has been bollocks so will believe the Truss stuff when I see it.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Labour would have performed better if they’d stuck to left wing policies. This is gonna be a very unpopular huge majority government…
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Labour hit 300 seats
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    edited July 5
    How the hell did the Tories hold Worthing East?
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    JC - Labour are continuing to progress towards their expected landslide victory, winning previously safe Tory seats across the country.

    Their gains are largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.

    Labour's own vote is expected to be up by just under four points across the country, entirely as a result of a 20 point increase in support in Scotland.

    In Wales, the party's vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party's vote is largely unchanged from 2019.

    ---

    So JC is saying 36% Labour, 24% Tory.

    I did say golden rule used to be, take lowest Labour polling, highest Tory and you won't be far off.

    So what on Earth has happened in Scotland? I never got the sense Labour were that popular up there now.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Hunt hangs on, annoyingly.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    Truss is the last hope for a major scalp.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Another BBC forecast update:

    Labour: 405 seats
    Conservative: 154 seats
    Liberal Democrat: 56 seats
    Scottish National Party: 6 seats
    Reform UK: 4 seats
    Other 25
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Rishi Sunak concedes the election, having called Keir Starmer.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Hunt holds.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291

    JC - Labour are continuing to progress towards their expected landslide victory, winning previously safe Tory seats across the country.

    Their gains are largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.

    Labour's own vote is expected to be up by just under four points across the country, entirely as a result of a 20 point increase in support in Scotland.

    In Wales, the party's vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party's vote is largely unchanged from 2019.

    ---

    So JC is saying 36% Labour, 24% Tory.

    I did say golden rule used to be, take lowest Labour polling, highest Tory and you won't be far off.

    So what on Earth has happened in Scotland? I never got the sense Labour were that popular up there now.
    The SNP detonated themselves.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    JC - Labour are continuing to progress towards their expected landslide victory, winning previously safe Tory seats across the country.

    Their gains are largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.

    Labour's own vote is expected to be up by just under four points across the country, entirely as a result of a 20 point increase in support in Scotland.

    In Wales, the party's vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party's vote is largely unchanged from 2019.

    ---

    So JC is saying 36% Labour, 24% Tory.

    I did say golden rule used to be, take lowest Labour polling, highest Tory and you won't be far off.

    So what on Earth has happened in Scotland? I never got the sense Labour were that popular up there now.
    The parcel of rogues that is the SNP.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    So much for the MRP polls showing Rishi losing his seat...
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    I did tell you Truss would lose :smiley:
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    How the hell did the Tories hold Worthing East?

    I would guess they got more votes than the other candidates.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Hunt - Sunak team hang on. They could keep the leadership over the summer and let the party spend a long time deciding on next leader
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Andy_JS said:

    How the hell did the Tories hold Worthing East?

    Have they?!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited July 5
    Rishi giving a statesman like speech and has conceded the election to Starmer but has at least held his seat which Liz may not do
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Rishi continuing as MP for years to come
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    Another BBC forecast update:

    Labour: 405 seats
    Conservative: 154 seats
    Liberal Democrat: 56 seats
    Scottish National Party: 6 seats
    Reform UK: 4 seats
    Other 25

    Lol back down to 405 again
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    Godalming is more or less the first LibDem target I’ve seen them lose.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Lab hold Slough, changes are as follows:

    Lab -24.9%
    Ind +25.5%
    Con -12.3%
    Ref +4.9%
    LD -2.0%
    Grn +2.2%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001477
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @lewis_goodall

    Unionism is hardening. Jim Allister of the TUV has beaten Ian Paisley in North Antrim.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    GIN1138 said:

    So much for the MRP polls showing Rishi losing his seat...

    As seat forecasting exercises, they should be put in the same dusty folder as Ashcroft polls.

    To bed. Good morning all and thanks to the team for keeping PB going.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 5
    Hunt for leader? He could do the I will be the boring equivalent of Starmer routine. But would the members go for it?
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Labour gain Montgomeryshire - interesting one.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261

    JC - Labour are continuing to progress towards their expected landslide victory, winning previously safe Tory seats across the country.

    Their gains are largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.

    Labour's own vote is expected to be up by just under four points across the country, entirely as a result of a 20 point increase in support in Scotland.

    In Wales, the party's vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party's vote is largely unchanged from 2019.

    ---

    So JC is saying 36% Labour, 24% Tory.

    I did say golden rule used to be, take lowest Labour polling, highest Tory and you won't be far off.

    So what on Earth has happened in Scotland? I never got the sense Labour were that popular up there now.
    Well basically their most popular politicians are close acquaintances with jails, they've been caught using expenses in a very duck pond moat way, are flat broke and they're all round rubbish. Same story as south of the border.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    GIN1138 said:

    So much for the MRP polls showing Rishi losing his seat...

    If people still do MRPs after this that’s a sign they can’t be trusted on any other form of polling they do.

    They’ve had them for three elections and been wrong every time.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034
    Sunak saying he will continue to serve as an MP
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    Godalming is more or less the first LibDem target I’ve seen them lose.

    Certainly not what i was expectng
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    MikeL said:

    Rishi continuing as MP for years to come

    That's what he says now but there'll be a by-election in Richmond before the year is out.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498

    Hunt for leader? He could do the I will be the boring equivalent of Starmer routine. But would the members go for it?

    In a word, no
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    edited July 5
    Craig Williams loses in Montgomeryshire, coming 3rd.

    Lab 12709
    Ref 8894
    Con 7775
    LD 6470
    PC 5667
    Grn 1744

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/W07000102
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Hunt for leader? He could do the I will be the boring equivalent of Starmer routine. But would the members go for it?

    Anyone but Braverman. Her speech was very creepy.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Scott_xP said:

    @lewis_goodall

    Unionism is hardening. Jim Allister of the TUV has beaten Ian Paisley in North Antrim.

    Unionists lost Lagan Valley, however...
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Mogg…
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Scott_xP said:

    @lewis_goodall

    Unionism is hardening. Jim Allister of the TUV has beaten Ian Paisley in North Antrim.

    Moderate Robinson held on in Belfast E though
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    Labour gain Montgomeryshire - interesting one.

    That is the first time Labour have ever won Montgomery, and means they have now held every seat in Wales at one time or another.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    Andy_JS said:

    Craig Williams loses in Montgomeryshire.

    Wonder if it he had a bet on it?
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Andy_JS said:

    Craig Williams loses in Montgomeryshire.

    Hope he got good odds on that.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Hunt for leader? He could do the I will be the boring equivalent of Starmer routine. But would the members go for it?

    No. ffs
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Most importantly, LAFC is beating LA Galaxy 2-0 at half time.

    That's the real story of the night.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    South Devon! Lib Dem clean up through Newton Abbot, Torbay and South Devon.

    Now Melksham too….
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lewis_goodall

    Unionism is hardening. Jim Allister of the TUV has beaten Ian Paisley in North Antrim.

    Moderate Robinson held on in Belfast E though
    It’s probably due more to Paisley Jnr being a rotten MP.
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    Jesus Labour really are going to be around 36% of the vote.

    I have to say @bigjohnowls called it, I hold my hands up.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Sunak gave a gracious speech
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    How the hell did the Tories hold Worthing East?

    I would guess they got more votes than the other candidates.
    Huge if true.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    Labour fast approaching majority. Sky reporting 307 elected for Labour out of 650 total not factoring SF no-shows.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,767
    Ghedebrav said:

    JC - Labour are continuing to progress towards their expected landslide victory, winning previously safe Tory seats across the country.

    Their gains are largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.

    Labour's own vote is expected to be up by just under four points across the country, entirely as a result of a 20 point increase in support in Scotland.

    In Wales, the party's vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party's vote is largely unchanged from 2019.

    ---

    So JC is saying 36% Labour, 24% Tory.

    I did say golden rule used to be, take lowest Labour polling, highest Tory and you won't be far off.

    So what on Earth has happened in Scotland? I never got the sense Labour were that popular up there now.
    The parcel of rogues that is the SNP.
    Swinney bored on about bloody independence once too often. This is the result. Tonight has been a verdict on two clapped out Governments, not just the one.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Conservatives hold SW Herts and Old Bexley and Sidcup
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    rkrkrk said:

    Sunak saying he will continue to serve as an MP

    For how long? Surely he doesn't want to sit there at the back of the room for 5 years?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    edited July 5
    Jenrick holds in Newark — (not sure when it happened, may have been ages ago)

    Con 20968
    Lab 17396
    Ref 8280
    LD 3026
    Grn 2345

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001375
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Chateau Musar 2001 smoky but lovely
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lewis_goodall

    Unionism is hardening. Jim Allister of the TUV has beaten Ian Paisley in North Antrim.

    Moderate Robinson held on in Belfast E though
    And the UUP have probably gained South Antrim.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291

    We talk about our democracy being poor, but I feel quite proud of the way this election has been held, and the way the loser has simply conceded to the winner.

    None of that January 6th nonsense here, thank God.

    I am not sure it will be so polite and peaceful in French if Le Pen wins in a few days.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Ian Liddell-Grainger has lost in Tiverton & Honiton.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001548
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854

    JC - Labour are continuing to progress towards their expected landslide victory, winning previously safe Tory seats across the country.

    Their gains are largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.

    Labour's own vote is expected to be up by just under four points across the country, entirely as a result of a 20 point increase in support in Scotland.

    In Wales, the party's vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party's vote is largely unchanged from 2019.

    ---

    So JC is saying 36% Labour, 24% Tory.

    I did say golden rule used to be, take lowest Labour polling, highest Tory and you won't be far off.

    So what on Earth has happened in Scotland? I never got the sense Labour were that popular up there now.
    The SNP detonated themselves.
    Spectacular implosion - should never have got into bed with the Greens, then told their supporters to piss off. Which they then did.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Workers almost took Hodge Hill from Byrne!
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    Scott_xP said:

    @lewis_goodall

    Unionism is hardening. Jim Allister of the TUV has beaten Ian Paisley in North Antrim.

    One in the eye for Farage who personally endorsed Paisley, despite Refuk's alliance with TUV
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238

    Perhaps the biggest winner of the night are the Lib Dems; yet they seem to be forgotten on the BBC coverage.

    Davey's done a blooming good job.

    He really has. Orange LD GAINs flashing up repeatedly on the ticker in a whole bunch of stretch targets (Melksham the latest one).

    And hopefully the new generation of LibDem MPs will be something for the party to build on - one of the consequences of the 2015 Cleggastrophe is that they've only ever had a handful of people who sound remotely convincing on TV/radio (Davey, Layla Moran, Tim Farron, Daisy Cooper).
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    Really good speech by Hunt. I’m glad he clung on.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    pigeon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    JC - Labour are continuing to progress towards their expected landslide victory, winning previously safe Tory seats across the country.

    Their gains are largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.

    Labour's own vote is expected to be up by just under four points across the country, entirely as a result of a 20 point increase in support in Scotland.

    In Wales, the party's vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party's vote is largely unchanged from 2019.

    ---

    So JC is saying 36% Labour, 24% Tory.

    I did say golden rule used to be, take lowest Labour polling, highest Tory and you won't be far off.

    So what on Earth has happened in Scotland? I never got the sense Labour were that popular up there now.
    The parcel of rogues that is the SNP.
    Swinney bored on about bloody independence once too often. This is the result. Tonight has been a verdict on two clapped out Governments, not just the one.
    This was a proxy ref on Indy, wasn’t it?

    Or did he change his mind on that?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Leon said:

    Sunak gave a gracious speech

    Yes he is a decent man as is Hunt and they have at least got inflation down from the level they inherited and which Labour will now benefit from in government
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Andy_JS said:

    Jenrick holds in Newark — (not sure when it happened, may have been ages ago)

    Con 20968
    Lab 17396
    Ref 8280
    LD 3026
    Grn 2345

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001375

    v disappointing
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    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138

    Godalming is more or less the first LibDem target I’ve seen them lose.

    Certainly not what i was expectng
    Same here. There was an issue of a libellous post by a nutter on Nextdoor that could have done harm but it was removed by moderators quickly so I don't believe it could have made that much difference. I don't know how widely it is read.

    Recount in Guildford, which should also be an easy win.
    .
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Doncaster E Lab gain
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,441
    Correction - Lab gain Worthing East & Shoreham
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Very good speech from Hunt
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited July 5
    Cons hold Bromley and Biggin Hill and Brigg and Melton and Syston
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Sturgeon says that the SNP have suffered to some extent from Tory unpopularity. :)
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    HYUFD said:

    Conservatives hold SW Herts and Old Bexley and Sidcup

    Good. I back the Tories and Lib Dems in SW Herts:

    Con - 34%
    LD - 25%
    Lab - 20%

    Lib Dems were 50-1 - had one of those come in, so content with Labour not winning this one.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930

    South Devon! Lib Dem clean up through Newton Abbot, Torbay and South Devon.

    Now Melksham too….

    Yes, surprisingly strong bounce-back in SW really. I thought Brexit would screw the Lib Dems in that area for a long time, but not so.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited July 5
    Lab gain Ayr, Dartford, Glasgow SW, Edinburgh SW and Worthing West
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690

    JC - Labour are continuing to progress towards their expected landslide victory, winning previously safe Tory seats across the country.

    Their gains are largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.

    Labour's own vote is expected to be up by just under four points across the country, entirely as a result of a 20 point increase in support in Scotland.

    In Wales, the party's vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party's vote is largely unchanged from 2019.

    ---

    So JC is saying 36% Labour, 24% Tory.

    I did say golden rule used to be, take lowest Labour polling, highest Tory and you won't be far off.

    So what on Earth has happened in Scotland? I never got the sense Labour were that popular up there now.
    The SNP detonated themselves.
    Do we opportunity of acquiring that SNP caravan as our very own PB By-Election Bottle Bus and Traveling Theatre of the Absurd?

    Or perhaps a superfluous Boris bus for a song from some well-connected used bus salesman?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457

    Sturgeon says that the SNP have suffered to some extent from Tory unpopularity. :)

    Those bloody Tories again.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited July 5
    LDs gain Lewes and hold St Albans
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Perhaps the biggest winner of the night are the Lib Dems; yet they seem to be forgotten on the BBC coverage.

    Davey's done a blooming good job.

    He really has. Orange LD GAINs flashing up repeatedly on the ticker in a whole bunch of stretch targets (Melksham the latest one).

    And hopefully the new generation of LibDem MPs will be something for the party to build on - one of the consequences of the 2015 Cleggastrophe is that they've only ever had a handful of people who sound remotely convincing on TV/radio (Davey, Layla Moran, Tim Farron, Daisy Cooper).
    39 and counting.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    And so, finally, to bed.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Labour have won their 326th seat and thus a majority.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    We talk about our democracy being poor, but I feel quite proud of the way this election has been held, and the way the loser has simply conceded to the winner.

    None of that January 6th nonsense here, thank God.

    Well said
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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,714
    Lab voteshare down to 36%. THey might end up on 32%.
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    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 745
    Andy_JS said:

    How the hell did the Tories hold Worthing East?

    They didn't
    Lost by 10k
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Derbyshire: "Rishi looked broken."

    Don't think so. Looked pretty good to me for a busy man up at 4am.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034

    Andy_JS said:

    How the hell did the Tories hold Worthing East?

    They didn't
    Lost by 10k
    Is that confirmed?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Lab on 309 according to BBC.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701

    Correction - Lab gain Worthing East & Shoreham

    That was really odd! Just about the most nailed on gain in the south.
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    JamesFJamesF Posts: 42
    Greens come strong second in...

    Bristol South
    Bristol East
    Bristol North East
    Bristol North West

    With all activists and volunteers diverted to Central.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 5

    South Devon! Lib Dem clean up through Newton Abbot, Torbay and South Devon.

    Now Melksham too….

    Yes, surprisingly strong bounce-back in SW really. I thought Brexit would screw the Lib Dems in that area for a long time, but not so.
    I wonder. How many oldies from places like London have moved down there to retire in the past 4-5 years?
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    English politics starting to feel split more on an east-west axis than north-south.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    @Edinburgh_CC

    The #EdinGE2024 results for Edinburgh South West is our 4th constituency declaration. Scott Arthur wins with 18,663 votes. Turnout was 62.09%

    Full results:
    Scottish Labour Party – Arthur, Scott – 18,663
    Scottish National Party (SNP) – Cherry, Joanna – 12,446
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    It’s a cliche but the Tories lost this. Labour didn’t win it. Anyone talking about clever targeting or tactical voting is deluding themselves. What a strange landslide.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @MichaelLCrick

    🔴 WORTHING WEST: Labour defeat Father of the House Sir Peter Bottomley - 49 years an MP, and win in Worthing for first time in history.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    Sky News - LABOUR HAVE WON, SUNAK CONCEDES
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    HYUFD said:

    Lab gain Ayr, Dartford, Glasgow SW, Edinburgh SW and Worthing West

    Father of the House Peter Bottomley defeated by 3,949 votes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001599
This discussion has been closed.