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Is this going to be this year’s Portillo moment as Jeremy Hunt holds on. – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Bromley and Biggin Hill and Brigg and Melton and Syston

    Con can hold Bromley but not Orpington. Mental.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    Ghedebrav said:

    English politics starting to feel split more on an east-west axis than north-south.

    As discussed a few weeks ago:

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/06/03/a-tale-of-two-seats-maidstone-and-macclesfield/
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lab gain Ayr, Dartford, Glasgow SW, Edinburgh SW and Worthing West

    Father of the House Peter Bottomley defeated by 3,949 votes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001599
    That doesn’t make Corbz FotH now, does it?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    Andy_JS said:

    Ian Liddell-Grainger has lost in Tiverton & Honiton.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001548

    You're telling me the man they call Iain Idle-Stranger didn't have the personal vote to see him through?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,546

    Derbyshire: "Rishi looked broken."

    Don't think so. Looked pretty good to me for a busy man up at 4am.

    I cant stand Victoria Derbyshire. She's not a nice piece of work, and a poor presenter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So much for the MRP polls showing Rishi losing his seat...

    If people still do MRPs after this that’s a sign they can’t be trusted on any other form of polling they do.

    They’ve had them for three elections and been wrong every time.
    The swing possibly hasn’t been as proportional as the models assume?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservatives hold SW Herts and Old Bexley and Sidcup

    Good. I back the Tories and Lib Dems in SW Herts:

    Con - 34%
    LD - 25%
    Lab - 20%

    Lib Dems were 50-1 - had one of those come in, so content with Labour not winning this one.
    Indeed, I also am pleased Gagan got back, I know him a bit from when he was a councillor in Chigwell on EFDC
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    AlsoLei said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lewis_goodall

    Unionism is hardening. Jim Allister of the TUV has beaten Ian Paisley in North Antrim.

    One in the eye for Farage who personally endorsed Paisley, despite Refuk's alliance with TUV
    He’s just won his first seat in the Commons. I think Nigel will cope
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Bromley and Biggin Hill and Brigg and Melton and Syston

    Con can hold Bromley but not Orpington. Mental.
    ? They've held both
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    BBC have taken down their predictor from front page now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    @BBCPhilipSim
    Edinburgh South West is another Labour GAIN, so that's Joanna Cherry out too. Labour come from third with a 23.5% swing - their share was up 26.5 points, SNP share was down 20.4 points
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,810
    SKY News declare Labour winners (326 seats already)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited July 5
    Labour gain Dover and Deal, Chatham, S Norfolk, Peterborough and E Worthing and N Northumberland
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    SMukesh said:

    Lab voteshare down to 36%. THey might end up on 32%.

    I think it'll end up Lab 35% Con 25% with a turnout around 60%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    biggles said:

    It’s a cliche but the Tories lost this. Labour didn’t win it. Anyone talking about clever targeting or tactical voting is deluding themselves. What a strange landslide.

    That may be true of Lab, but LD and Greens have targeted well, and so have Gaza independents.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,756
    I think someone predicted independent win in Dewsbury.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    @KentRising Tories held Orpington.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited July 5
    Cons hold Kenilworth and Southam, Bognor Regis, NW Hampshire and New Forest W
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Jess Phillips holds on by 700 votes. This is quite a weird one. I think this Labour government will end up more left wing than I thought - but out of fear of the electorate. Unless Reform and Cons merge, that split is going to continue - if a moderate wins the Con leadership it may even widen. Where Lab will really have to worry is if a new left party emerges or if this coalition of Indies and Greens merge.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806

    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Bromley and Biggin Hill and Brigg and Melton and Syston

    Con can hold Bromley but not Orpington. Mental.
    No, they won Orpington too
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Bromley and Biggin Hill and Brigg and Melton and Syston

    Con can hold Bromley but not Orpington. Mental.
    ? They've held both
    FFS, I thought it was declared earlier in the night as a Labour gain??
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,655
    Peter Bottomley loses meaning Jeremy Corbyn is the father of the House.

    If Diane Abbott wins she is mother of the House too.

    Incredibly profitable GE for me boosted by Jezza winning at Evs
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So much for the MRP polls showing Rishi losing his seat...

    If people still do MRPs after this that’s a sign they can’t be trusted on any other form of polling they do.

    They’ve had them for three elections and been wrong every time.
    The swing possibly hasn’t been as proportional as the models assume?
    I think the reason is irrelevant.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Bromley and Biggin Hill and Brigg and Melton and Syston

    Con can hold Bromley but not Orpington. Mental.
    Bromley extremely close
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    That's it LAB confirmed overall majority

    Well done LAB. Most astonishing election of all time!

    Goodnight er good morning all!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5

    Derbyshire: "Rishi looked broken."

    Don't think so. Looked pretty good to me for a busy man up at 4am.

    I cant stand Victoria Derbyshire. She's not a nice piece of work, and a poor presenter.
    See ruined Fi Glovers career by having an affair with Fi's husband. At the time they followed one another on R5 and Glover was the super rising star of BBC radio. She refused to continue to work that slot after the affair and really set her career back for a long time.

    Other than lovely lady.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,810
    edited July 5

    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Bromley and Biggin Hill and Brigg and Melton and Syston

    Con can hold Bromley but not Orpington. Mental.
    ? They've held both
    FFS, I thought it was declared earlier in the night as a Labour gain??
    Nope, that was the Exit Poll!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,162
    Labour majority just as they lose Dewsbury lol
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Andy_JS said:

    Ian Liddell-Grainger has lost in Tiverton & Honiton.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001548

    That’s the old seat?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    @Samfr

    Jess Phillips has held on by 700 votes in Birmingham Yardley.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Labour gain the old Berwick seat!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Bromley and Biggin Hill and Brigg and Melton and Syston

    Con can hold Bromley but not Orpington. Mental.
    ? They've held both
    FFS, I thought it was declared earlier in the night as a Labour gain??
    Nope, that was the Exit Poll!
    Turning out to be a solid night for the Tories after all!

    (Joke.)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr

    Jess Phillips has held on by 700 votes in Birmingham Yardley.

    That's a shame.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited July 5
    LDs hold Oxford W and Abingdon and gain Taunton
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,810
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour majority just as they lose Dewsbury lol

    Indy got 41%
    Lab only 23%!
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited July 5
    Indy win Dewsbury & Batley

    (Gaza?)

    Big majority, too.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    SNP leader Stephen Flynn: wasn't expected this scale of defeat.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited July 5

    Indy win Batley

    (Gaza?)

    really? goodness.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    Chameleon said:

    Well I for one am excited to see how the formation of a nascent radical Islamic block in the HoC changes our politics.

    It’s great, isn’t it? The enrichment of diversity
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846

    Hunt for leader? He could do the I will be the boring equivalent of Starmer routine. But would the members go for it?

    Hunt has previously ruled out yet another run for the leadership. At single-figure prices, I'd take him at his word.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837

    Sturgeon says that the SNP have suffered to some extent from Tory unpopularity. :)

    Eh?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,281
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour majority just as they lose Dewsbury lol

    The poster war convinced me it was going that way.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    biggles said:

    It’s a cliche but the Tories lost this. Labour didn’t win it. Anyone talking about clever targeting or tactical voting is deluding themselves. What a strange landslide.

    The right wing vote split in half, and if they wish to win again, they need to find a way to reunite.

    That's not about "centrism" or anything else; it's about finding common themes that unite the right.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    AMT loses North Northumberland. Tories have lost virtually everything in the north east?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5

    Hunt for leader? He could do the I will be the boring equivalent of Starmer routine. But would the members go for it?

    Hunt has previously ruled out yet another run for the leadership. At single-figure prices, I'd take him at his word.
    But I mean, if the ball came out the back of the scrum.....and he felt for the good of the party he had been asked to do a job....

    One thought I would have is he has clearly worked really really hard to retain his seat. He has been in parliament a long time, he has done lots of the cabinet jobs, he is independently wealthy, why would you sit in opposition if not for the top job?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour majority just as they lose Dewsbury lol

    I predicted that, and the Jezza win. Didn’t see the Leicester mayhem though.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited July 5
    Mogg's seat -> Lab gain

    Lab 20739
    Con 15342
    Ref 7424
    LD
    Green 3222
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited July 5
    JRM declaration, looks like he’s not back

    Labour gain at 0500 exactly - were you up for Mogg? At the very minute the BBC declares the majority.

    Just Truss to wait for, now
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350

    Peter Bottomley loses meaning Jeremy Corbyn is the father of the House.

    If Diane Abbott wins she is mother of the House too.

    Incredibly profitable GE for me boosted by Jezza winning at Evs

    Edward Leigh has held on, so he will be Father of the House, not Corbyn.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,810
    Rees-Mogg loses Somerset NE!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    Chameleon said:

    Well I for one am excited to see how the formation of a nascent radical Islamic block in the HoC changes our politics.

    They can sit next to REFUK on the opposition benches.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited July 5

    South Devon! Lib Dem clean up through Newton Abbot, Torbay and South Devon.

    Now Melksham too….

    Yes, surprisingly strong bounce-back in SW really. I thought Brexit would screw the Lib Dems in that area for a long time, but not so.
    I wonder. How many oldies from places like London have moved down there to retire in the past 4-5 years?
    Nowhere near enough to shift the demographic. Places like South Devon have always had that element, but nobody sells their townhouse in Richmond to move to Tiverton - it's not a unpleasant place but it's, er, agricultural. People from London think of the "posh bits" but huge parts of the SW just aren't like that in any way, and that's where the numbers are.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr

    Jess Phillips has held on by 700 votes in Birmingham Yardley.

    So that's Birmingham Ladywood gone. Would be good if one way or another Gaza got resolved asap.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    YES!!!!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Brilliant! Get out Jakey!
  • SkiddertonSkidderton Posts: 15
    Yes !! I was up for Rees-Mogg
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Chameleon said:

    Well I for one am excited to see how the formation of a nascent radical Islamic block in the HoC changes our politics.

    They aren’t radical islamic candidates - they’re pro - Palestine and anti genocide.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    North Somerset and E Hainham

    Jacob Rees Mogg defeated
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    Rees-Mogg loses Somerset NE!!

    And the BBC missed the count!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,937

    Rees-Mogg loses Somerset NE!!

    Sky news calling it the Portillo moment, but surely pretty expected, especially due to boundary changes.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882
    Starmer needs to sort this Israel/Palestine thing to stop independent candidates (and help save Wes in 2029).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    A new dawn has broken...
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Ha. Mogg gives Labour its majority!
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    REES MOGG HAS GONE
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037
    Blackburn? This is quite worrying.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,281
    JRM will do.

    Truss would be a bonus.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350

    Rees-Mogg loses Somerset NE!!

    And the BBC missed the count!
    I will not miss the cu…
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    JRM gone!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    Has there been another Gaza eruption in Blackburn?
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    Jess Philips wins by 700 votes.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Three Gaza independents, plus Corbyn?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    148grss said:

    Chameleon said:

    Well I for one am excited to see how the formation of a nascent radical Islamic block in the HoC changes our politics.

    They aren’t radical islamic candidates - they’re pro - Palestine and anti genocide.
    If I'm pro genocide (in general, not of Palestinians in particular), who should I vote for?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,162
    Not sure Reform has lost a single deposit yet.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    Lab just fell under 36% - now 35.9%
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Blackburn. Massive Gaza problem for Labour. Has cost half a dozen seats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Starmer speaking in central London to Labour supporters and giving his victory speech
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited July 5
    Surely Akhmed Yaqoub will oust Shabana Mahmoud in Ladywood.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,810
    rcs1000 said:

    148grss said:

    Chameleon said:

    Well I for one am excited to see how the formation of a nascent radical Islamic block in the HoC changes our politics.

    They aren’t radical islamic candidates - they’re pro - Palestine and anti genocide.
    If I'm pro genocide (in general, not of Palestinians in particular), who should I vote for?
    Likud?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,343
    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    It’s a cliche but the Tories lost this. Labour didn’t win it. Anyone talking about clever targeting or tactical voting is deluding themselves. What a strange landslide.

    The right wing vote split in half, and if they wish to win again, they need to find a way to reunite.

    That's not about "centrism" or anything else; it's about finding common themes that unite the right.
    If Reform continue, right wing voters will soon work out which of the two is best placed to defeat Labour.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    148grss said:

    Chameleon said:

    Well I for one am excited to see how the formation of a nascent radical Islamic block in the HoC changes our politics.

    They aren’t radical islamic candidates - they’re pro - Palestine and anti genocide.
    They weren't very anti-genocide on 10/7. Scratch someone obsessed enough to run on Gaza and a nazi bleeds.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Sherwood Forest Lab gain
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037
    edited July 5
    rcs1000 said:

    148grss said:

    Chameleon said:

    Well I for one am excited to see how the formation of a nascent radical Islamic block in the HoC changes our politics.

    They aren’t radical islamic candidates - they’re pro - Palestine and anti genocide.
    If I'm pro genocide (in general, not of Palestinians in particular), who should I vote for?
    I keep being told it’s Sir Keir Starmer… Those who say that won’t shut up about it.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    JRM is toast. Not even worth an E.J. Thribb valedictory verse.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    stjohn said:

    Were you up for MOGG? 😀

    These are all underwhelming Portillo-moment candidates given they were expected to be in trouble.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964

    Indy win Dewsbury & Batley

    (Gaza?)

    Big majority, too.

    Labour have taken their Muslim vote for granted
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    @ginadavidsonlbc

    Last time John Swinney led the SNP the party had 5 MPs. As things stand right now they have 4.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    rcs1000 said:

    148grss said:

    Chameleon said:

    Well I for one am excited to see how the formation of a nascent radical Islamic block in the HoC changes our politics.

    They aren’t radical islamic candidates - they’re pro - Palestine and anti genocide.
    If I'm pro genocide (in general, not of Palestinians in particular), who should I vote for?
    Reform
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,810
    MikeL said:

    Lab just fell under 36% - now 35.9%

    Tories on 22.5%
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    RobD said:

    stjohn said:

    Were you up for MOGG? 😀

    These are all underwhelming Portillo-moment candidates given they were expected to be in trouble.
    Truss would be the one.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Hearing that Greens have won in North Herefordshire
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Question for constitutional bods, if the three independents get together into a parliamentary group do they get Short Money?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Blackburn goes indy
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 100
    Starmer is more than a bit soggy cardboard
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    Nice to have a grammar school kid in Downing Street again.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    BREAKING: The FOURTH pro-Gaza independent has beat Labour, this time in Blackburn
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    It’s a cliche but the Tories lost this. Labour didn’t win it. Anyone talking about clever targeting or tactical voting is deluding themselves. What a strange landslide.

    The right wing vote split in half, and if they wish to win again, they need to find a way to reunite.

    That's not about "centrism" or anything else; it's about finding common themes that unite the right.
    If Reform continue, right wing voters will soon work out which of the two is best placed to defeat Labour.
    It took 14 years (1983 to 1997) for the Left to work it out. Now, I get the Right is not quite as stupid as the Left, but it is optimistic to assume it will happen in a single electoral cycle.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited July 5
    The by-election gain of Shropshire N held by the LDs
This discussion has been closed.