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Is this going to be this year’s Portillo moment as Jeremy Hunt holds on. – politicalbetting.com

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  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,840
    El_Capitano said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP gain Aberdeenshire N

    @RochdalePioneers we always believed in you
    Last behind the disowned Laborite. Reform actually came third, which is novel. Outfits like that haven't gained much traction in Scotland before, but Reform seems to be picking up decent hauls of votes all over the place.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Douglas Ross loses ANME.

    How did @RochdalePioneers do?
    7.3% = 2,782 votes.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    First Oxfordshire LibDem gain - Henley & Thame. Expecting the other Oxon seats to declare soon
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Despite all of the noise, Reform have quite badly under-performed no? At least compared to the Lib Dems and Greens.

    Reform have got the biggest voteshare increase of any party, including Labour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Labour gain Somerset N, Liam Fox defeated
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Despite all of the noise, Reform have quite badly under-performed no? At least compared to the Lib Dems and Greens.

    Reform have got the biggest voteshare increase of any party, including Labour
    But they were projected 13 seats at the start of the night and have got four.

    In 2029 they may well be what the Lib Dems are today and this is all a sign. But it's hardly a break-through.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 888
    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Despite all of the noise, Reform have quite badly under-performed no? At least compared to the Lib Dems and Greens.

    Reform have got the biggest voteshare increase of any party, including Labour
    Am I being stupid or is that only because they didn't contest the previous election and, therefore, any %vote is an increase?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Despite all of the noise, Reform have quite badly under-performed no? At least compared to the Lib Dems and Greens.

    Reform have got the biggest voteshare increase of any party, including Labour
    But that hasn’t resulted in seats. The argument against Corbyn was always that it didn’t matter if he did well in vote share terms, it was seats that mattered :wink:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Despite all of the noise, Reform have quite badly under-performed no? At least compared to the Lib Dems and Greens.

    Reform have got the biggest voteshare increase of any party, including Labour
    But they were projected 13 seats at the start of the night and have got four.

    In 2029 they may well be what the Lib Dems are today and this is all a sign. But it's hardly a break-through.
    On votes at least Reform have already got more than the LDs, even if the LDs got more seats than Reform
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Despite all of the noise, Reform have quite badly under-performed no? At least compared to the Lib Dems and Greens.

    Reform have got the biggest voteshare increase of any party, including Labour
    But they were projected 13 seats at the start of the night and have got four.

    In 2029 they may well be what the Lib Dems are today and this is all a sign. But it's hardly a break-through.
    I doubt Farage himself thought they would get 14.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Douglas Ross loses ANME.

    How did @RochdalePioneers do?
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East:

    SNP: 13455 (35.2%, -7.9)
    Conservative: 12513 (32.8%, -15.6)
    Reform UK: 5562 (14.6%, new)
    Labour: 3876 (10.1%, +6)
    Lib Dem: 2782 (7.3%, +2.9)

    SNP GAIN from Conservative
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Despite all of the noise, Reform have quite badly under-performed no? At least compared to the Lib Dems and Greens.

    Reform have got the biggest voteshare increase of any party, including Labour
    But they were projected 13 seats at the start of the night and have got four.

    In 2029 they may well be what the Lib Dems are today and this is all a sign. But it's hardly a break-through.
    On votes at least Reform have already got more than the LDs, even if the LDs got more seats than Reform
    So do you support PR now? What matters is seats, the Lib Dems have won lots, Reform bugger all.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    I can't find the Birmingham Yardley result anywhere, even though someone said Jess Phillips had held on by 700 votes.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    Unpopular said:

    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Despite all of the noise, Reform have quite badly under-performed no? At least compared to the Lib Dems and Greens.

    Reform have got the biggest voteshare increase of any party, including Labour
    Am I being stupid or is that only because they didn't contest the previous election and, therefore, any %vote is an increase?
    Technically their increase is infinite.
  • JamesFJamesF Posts: 42
    pigeon said:

    Greens gain Waveney Valley. Their strategy has worked.

    The strategy was good, the execution remarkable.

    In Bristol Central we spoke face to face to 25,000 voters - if the voter didn't want to speak to us, they didn't count towards that total. That's 25k actual conversations.

    23 pieces of literature were hand delivered to every house. The first of which went out within 6 hours of the election being announced, the last delivered between 6 and 8 am today to get out the vote.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Shailesh Vara loses Tory fortress North West Cambridgeshire to Labour by 39 votes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001401
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,124
    Liam Fox out
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    Liam fox loses
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    148grss said:

    Still time for Star Trek to be proved right and Irish Unification to happen in 2024 - SF looking to be the largest party in NI

    9 Nationalist MPs
    1 Alliance
    8 Unionists
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    I think the blue the Jeremy Vine map uses for the Tories is too Reform turquoise, it gets confusing to distinguish Tory blue, Reform blue, Green green and Plaid Cymru green.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy_JS said:

    Aberdeenshire North & Moray East -> SNP gain

    SNP 13455
    Con (Douglas Ross) 12513
    Ref 5562
    Lab 3876
    LD (Ian Bailey) 2782 = 7.3%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/S14000062

    Would appear that Ross pissed away a likely CON hold, by elbowing the incumbent out of way?

    Condolences to PBer RP but you clearly fought the good fight AND enjoyed doing it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited July 5
    JamesF said:

    pigeon said:

    Greens gain Waveney Valley. Their strategy has worked.

    The strategy was good, the execution remarkable.

    In Bristol Central we spoke face to face to 25,000 voters - if the voter didn't want to speak to us, they didn't count towards that total. That's 25k actual conversations.

    23 pieces of literature were hand delivered to every house. The first of which went out within 6 hours of the election being announced, the last delivered between 6 and 8 am today to get out the vote.
    But won't somebody think of the planet....
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    Economist still reckons Tories 131.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,942
    LD win Guildford
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Unpopular said:

    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Despite all of the noise, Reform have quite badly under-performed no? At least compared to the Lib Dems and Greens.

    Reform have got the biggest voteshare increase of any party, including Labour
    Am I being stupid or is that only because they didn't contest the previous election and, therefore, any %vote is an increase?
    Relative to the BXP their predecessor
  • JamesFJamesF Posts: 42
    Andy_JS said:

    pigeon said:

    Greens gain Waveney Valley. Their strategy has worked.

    Pleased that prediction came off.

    Still waiting for North Herefordshire?
    No, it's announced. Green win.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Alliance have lost North Down to an Indy.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/N05000013
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Cicero said:

    Liam Fox out

    I forgot he was even still an MP.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    Andy_JS said:

    I can't find the Birmingham Yardley result anywhere, even though someone said Jess Phillips had held on by 700 votes.

    same here.

    I read the 700 number in a tweet by, iirc Samfr
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,382
    It is now mathematically impossible for the Conservatives to exceed 200 seats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Northampton S Labour gain
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Rod Liddle narrowly loses his deposit with 4.8% as Labour gain the seat by just 214 votes in Middlesbrough South.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001368
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    kjh said:

    LD win Guildford

    I have been saying this for months.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    Jess Phillips just hangs on, like Streeting!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Andy_JS said:

    Alliance have lost North Down to an Indy.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/N05000013

    An Indy Unionist effectively
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    Tim_in_Ruislip said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can't find the Birmingham Yardley result anywhere, even though someone said Jess Phillips had held on by 700 votes.

    same here.

    I read the 700 number in a tweet by, iirc Samfr
    confirmed - just read out on times radio.
  • JamesFJamesF Posts: 42
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    JamesF said:

    pigeon said:

    Greens gain Waveney Valley. Their strategy has worked.

    The strategy was good, the execution remarkable.

    In Bristol Central we spoke face to face to 25,000 voters - if the voter didn't want to speak to us, they didn't count towards that total. That's 25k actual conversations.

    23 pieces of literature were hand delivered to every house. The first of which went out within 6 hours of the election being announced, the last delivered between 6 and 8 am today to get out the vote.
    But won't somebody think of the planet....
    Lol
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Andy_JS said:

    Rod Liddle narrowly loses his deposit with 4.8% as Labour gain the seat by just 214 votes in Middlesbrough South.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001368

    They don't like the Green's in smoggy land.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    edited July 5
    kjh said:

    LD win Guildford

    No surprise there but pleasing for LDs, St Ives and Witney also LD gains
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,239
    edited July 5
    Lots of subplots in this election.

    Biggest subplot is the Lib Dems. A stunning result for them.

    Subplots also for Reform, Greens and Gaza affiliated candidates. And the SNP, in a bad way for them.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,382
    Where is Birmingham Ladywood
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    HYUFD said:

    Unpopular said:

    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Despite all of the noise, Reform have quite badly under-performed no? At least compared to the Lib Dems and Greens.

    Reform have got the biggest voteshare increase of any party, including Labour
    Am I being stupid or is that only because they didn't contest the previous election and, therefore, any %vote is an increase?
    Relative to the BXP their predecessor
    But BXP didn't contest a lot of seats in 2019.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,840
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Aberdeenshire North & Moray East -> SNP gain

    SNP 13455
    Con (Douglas Ross) 12513
    Ref 5562
    Lab 3876
    LD (Ian Bailey) 2782 = 7.3%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/S14000062

    Would appear that Ross pissed away a likely CON hold, by elbowing the incumbent out of way?

    Condolences to PBer RP but you clearly fought the good fight AND enjoyed doing it.
    And increased the vote share, and rescued his deposit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Aberdeenshire North & Moray East -> SNP gain

    SNP 13455
    Con (Douglas Ross) 12513
    Ref 5562
    Lab 3876
    LD (Ian Bailey) 2782 = 7.3%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/S14000062

    Would appear that Ross pissed away a likely CON hold, by elbowing the incumbent out of way?

    Condolences to PBer RP but you clearly fought the good fight AND enjoyed doing it.
    Looking forward to the story he’s promised us as a header.
    But hereafter he should be known as @Rossbane.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited July 5
    viewcode said:

    Where is Birmingham Ladywood

    In Birmingham.

    Duh,.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Andrew Stephenson loses Pendle to Labour by 902 votes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001422
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    UUP have GAINED Antrim South from the DUP
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    NEW THREAD

This discussion has been closed.