Blackburn. Massive Gaza problem for Labour. Has cost half a dozen seats.
It's a problem at the moment, but five years of these MPs talking about nothing other than Gaza will wear pretty thin by the time the next election rolls around, particularly if things calm down there
Question for constitutional bods, if the three independents get together into a parliamentary group do they get Short Money?
No - I think you need to have secured the seats for a registered political party at the previous General Election - you can't just subsequently form a party and claim (e.g. ChangeUK were elected as Labour and Tory MPs so didn't qualify in their short existence).
The amount of Short Money you'd be getting for a couple of MPs and a few thousand votes is also pretty minor. You might be able to get employ a junior member of staff. Greens will get a decent amount as, although they've only got a couple of MPs, they have a lot of votes across the UK too, and that goes into the calculation.
Blimey, LD took Surrey Heath but not Hunt’s seat. Says alot about Hunt’s personal vote.
Danger of targeting too much. Reminded me of the Lib Dems' decapitation strategy in 2005. If Maidenhead didn't know that the Tories were in trouble then May might have been gone but she was threatened with a loss and her constituents valued her enough as their local MP to save her.
BREAKING: The FOURTH pro-Gaza independent has beat Labour, this time in Blackburn
I'm pleased Starmer has won such a huge majority without being beholden to the various far left and Hamas-sympathising independents who believe that Gaza is the most important issue facing the UK.
Blimey, LD took Surrey Heath but not Hunt’s seat. Says alot about Hunt’s personal vote.
Hunt is not only a good operator and tough fighter but he is the sort of quite traditional fiscal conservative that the party needs in their tent. That's the challenge - how do they keep people like Hunt on board (not saying he'd flounce out personally - I mean the sort of voters who are like him) while winning back RefUK types? It's very difficult.
Well he did only get Blair's 2005 voteshare not his 1997 voteshare to be fair to him, he never had Blair's charisma or oratory.
What Starmer does have is utter ruthlessness though in shifting Labour to the centre and ruthlessly targeting Conservative and SNP seats to reverse the 2019 GE result and get a Labour landslide
The scale of the defeat is probably too much for the tories to swing a majority in one term, but I could see a hung parliament next election, with only 36% of the vote for Labour.
If we don’t change our electoral system we may just end up being more like Canada, with a multi party system forcing its way into FPTP.
BREAKING: The FOURTH pro-Gaza independent has beat Labour, this time in Blackburn
I'm pleased Starmer has won such a huge majority without being beholden to the various far left and Hamas-sympathising independents who believe that Gaza is the most important issue facing the UK.
Indeed, because if he had been beholden to them, he wouldn't have won such a huge majority.
The scale of the defeat is probably too much for the tories to swing a majority in one term, but I could see a hung parliament next election, with only 36% of the vote for Labour.
If we don’t change our electoral system we may just end up being more like Canada, with a multi party system forcing its way into FPTP.
We all thought that in 2019. Indeed, as late as Hartlepool.
We were wrong.
The story of the last ten years is the volatility of the electorate. Maybe that will continue.
The scale of the defeat is probably too much for the tories to swing a majority in one term, but I could see a hung parliament next election, with only 36% of the vote for Labour.
If we don’t change our electoral system we may just end up being more like Canada, with a multi party system forcing its way into FPTP.
This strikes me as a high water mark for Reform though.
Yes small parties can succeed in Westminster but it’s a hard grind and I don’t think they have the focus. Farage will also be 65 at the next election and not sure I see anyone else capable of succeeding him
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001123
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001543
The amount of Short Money you'd be getting for a couple of MPs and a few thousand votes is also pretty minor. You might be able to get employ a junior member of staff. Greens will get a decent amount as, although they've only got a couple of MPs, they have a lot of votes across the UK too, and that goes into the calculation.
https://shockatadam.org/
Almost at "This is not a time for soundbites, but I feel the hand of history on our shoulders" levels of nonsense
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/07/04/will-david-cameron-have-a-better-vote-share-than-keir-starmer/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001069
Oh no, that was Nick Clegg.
Or, rather, we don’t.
Try answering that without sounding like a massive racist
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001443
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/N05000013
That probably leaves Sorcha Eastwood in Lagan Valley as the only APNI MP this time round (though Belfast East hasn't yet officially declared)
What Starmer does have is utter ruthlessness though in shifting Labour to the centre and ruthlessly targeting Conservative and SNP seats to reverse the 2019 GE result and get a Labour landslide
Lab (Streeting) 15647
Ind Mohamad 15119
Con 9619
Ref 3621
Grn 1794
LD 1088
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001300
If we don’t change our electoral system we may just end up being more like Canada, with a multi party system forcing its way into FPTP.
Con (Mitchell) 18502
Lab 15959
Ref 8213
LD 2587
Grn 2419
WPB 653
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001535
We were wrong.
The story of the last ten years is the volatility of the electorate. Maybe that will continue.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/07/02/chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold-thin-gruel/
A small consolation prize.
Con (Tugendhat) 20,517
Lab 9,351
Grn 7,596
Ref 7,548
LD 4,234
SDP 156
Ind Alliance Kent 926
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001366
Mid Sussex:
LD - 49%
Lab - 22%
Reform - 14%
Con - 10%
Supporting a blockade of food and water to Gaza for example.
Con 18208
LD 16619
Ref 7894
Lab 4370
Grn 2082
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001388
Labour thinks it’s Reform v Labour with Truss in third
Very narrow win indeed. For that to be a marginal is extraordinary.
Yes small parties can succeed in Westminster but it’s a hard grind and I don’t think they have the focus. Farage will also be 65 at the next election and not sure I see anyone else capable of succeeding him