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It’s looking like ajockalypse now for the SNP in the early results – politicalbetting.com

24

Comments

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,930
    Andy_JS said:

    LD gain -> Newton Abbot

    LD 15201
    Con 12955
    Lab 8494

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001381

    Well I think we all knew which way that was going, didn’t we?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited July 5
    TimS said:

    It seems the Midlands is the really big Labour story this election. The big economic winner in the mid 2010s, probably the biggest loser of all the regions since Brexit and Covid.

    The midlands is nearly always the bellweather, very sensitive to price changes would be how I would sum the region up. It will be mortgages again, its much more affordable than the SE, so I guess many more people own homes, but interests rates, energy prices, etc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    MORE VOTES THAN STARMER :D
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,483
    edited July 5
    Islington North -> Ind gain

    Corbyn 24,120
    Lab 16,873
    Grn 2,660
    Con 1,950
    Ref 1,710
    LD 1,661
    Ind 32
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    MarqueeMark said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Farage looking very unhappy at his count (pictures now on ITV)

    Imagine if Lee is the Lee-der of his Party in Parliament....
    Would be hilarious.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    Called it.

    Corbyn wins.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Mid Norfolk Con Hold as tipped by yours truly
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,920
    edited July 5
    Cicero said:

    Penny Out

    Shame
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,676
    edited July 5
    Islington N

    Corbyn 24120
    Cons 1950
    Greens 2660
    LDs 1661
    Lab 16873
    Ref 1710

    Corbyn HOLDs Islington N
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,699
    Con hold Gosport
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Streets* are saying Jonathan Ashworth out in Leicester South?


    *Twitter
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    Yep, glad I traded out my earlier lay of Corbyn!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,930
    Andy_JS said:

    Islington North

    Corbyn 24,120
    Lab 16,873
    Grn 2,660
    Con 1,950
    LD 1,661
    Ref
    Ind 32

    If we have to have a Jew hating blowhard in the commons I’d rather Corbyn than Galloway.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037
    Ha! I know Vikas Aggarwal. Didn't know he was the losing LD candidate in Islington North. :-)
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,944
    MikeL said:

    Con hold South Holland & Deepings

    I believe Labour also held Bootle.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,142
    Cautious, Lib Dems seem to be outperforming the exit poll here. Newton Abbot and Stratford-on-Avon were both a reasonable chance in the exit poll, but Tories favoured.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Corbyn elected as an independent.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,750
    edited July 5
    deleted
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,640
    Pulpstar said:

    MORE VOTES THAN STARMER :D

    Oh God, BJO will never let us hear the end of it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,258
    Gaza having a big impact. Will be interesting to see if Starmer can recover ground with Muslim voters, particularly if he choses to recognise Palestine as a state. I suppose we will follow what the US does.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    Oh, Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,483
    edited July 5
    Clacton -> Ref gain

    Ref 21,225
    Con 12,820
    Lab 7,448
    LD 2,016
    Grn 1,935
    Ind 317
    UKIP 116
    Climate 48
    Heritage 33
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,640
    Jezza looks likes he's been on the beer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,676
    Mandy sounding peeved at that result on BBC
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    Clacton up.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,930
    LD now passed the 2019 seat count.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 434
    London lefties seriously out of whack with the rest of their country.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    edited July 5
    biggles said:

    Oh god. Corbyn rant incoming.

    Saved by Clacton count!

    Might mean Farage rant incoming :open_mouth:
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Jezza!!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,845
    Andy_JS said:

    LD gain -> Newton Abbot

    LD 15201
    Con 12955
    Lab 8494

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001381

    This was the seat where Heathener was adamant that Labour was the tactical vote
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 792
    While it's been obvious from market for a few hours Corbyn has won, that much of a difference is pretty astounding
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    Pulpstar said:

    MORE VOTES THAN STARMER :D

    SKS fans will have to explain this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Ashworth !!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    Farage wins easily.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    It's less sweeping into power and more stumbling.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Jonathan Ashworth out in Leicester South!!!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967
    Resounding win in Islington N for Corbyn, 49.2%. Most winners are only getting votes in the 30s.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,761
    Corbyn Ka-Boom!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    East Kilbride and Strathaven

    Labour: 22682 (48.6%, +27)
    SNP: 13625 (29.2%, -17.9)
    Conservative: 3547 (7.6%, -13.8)
    Reform UK: 3377 (7.2%, new)
    Green: 1811 (3.9%, +1.8)
    Lib Dem: 1074 (2.3%, -4.6)
    Family: 505 (1.1%,)
    UKIP: 86 (0.2%)

    Labour GAIN from SNP
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Leicester South sounds like a shit show.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am still a bit confused how Starmer seat was down over 30% on turn out compared to usual.

    The seat is smaller now.
    I presumed it had to be that.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Dumbosaurus said:

    While it's been obvious from market for a few hours Corbyn has won, that much of a difference is pretty astounding

    Yeah I’m surprised too.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,383
    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Islington North

    Corbyn 24,120
    Lab 16,873
    Grn 2,660
    Con 1,950
    LD 1,661
    Ref
    Ind 32

    If we have to have a Jew hating blowhard in the commons I’d rather Corbyn than Galloway.
    Oh, FFS, do you really think that Jeremy Corbyn hates Jews?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,845
    edited July 5
    Clacton declaring, Farage wins, 21,200, Con 12,800 Lab 7,400

    So much for suggestions that Labour could come through the middle
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,676
    Clacton result

    Farage 21225
    LDs 2016
    Green 1935
    Lab 7448
    Cons 12820

    Farage WINS Clacton
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Farage elected.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    Farage wins.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963
    Labour is doing absolutely awful in the urban seats (relatively speaking)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,761
    Farage finally elected at the 8th attempt :lol:
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Farage is in the House.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Cautious, Lib Dems seem to be outperforming the exit poll here. Newton Abbot and Stratford-on-Avon were both a reasonable chance in the exit poll, but Tories favoured.

    Yes, looks like LibDems may potentially have won Bicester & Woodstock and Witney, both of which the exit poll called for the Conservatives.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    With Shapps and Penny gone, IDS for leader isn't looking so crazy ;-)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    Farage finally wins.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    londonpubman said:

    Jonathan Ashworth out in Leicester South!!!

    I'm going to assume that it's another garden variety anti-semite?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,803
    Ah well, a Reform contingent of Tice, Farage and 30p should be fun to watch.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Nigel!!!!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited July 5
    Does anyone have the detailed results for Portsmouth North? Not up on the BBC constituency list yet.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Farage and Corbyn will both be opposition MPs.

    I trust everyone in the Commons will make them sit next to each other.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Fuck off, THE TORRREEEZZZZ
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,920
    Monksfield said:

    Ah well, a Reform contingent of Tice, Farage and 30p should be fun to watch.

    I wonder if they'll actually do anything in Parliament.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,845
    Heathener said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Newton Abbott LD gain

    Well done @IanB2 and @ClippP

    Reform 8,500. No wonder Farage held a rally there.

    Anyway, really glad Anne Morris has been booted out.
    Maybe you should have a think about why you were so wrong, and so nasty about it,
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,241
    :(
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,650
    Farage the fifth candidate to get ITV televised speech? Two out of the five being Reform.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,559
    Nunu5 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.

    Harrow East must be a Tory hold
    IDS won because Shaheen was as popular as the official Labour candidate, that’s all. Doesn’t say anything about Harrow
    I'm talking about Leicester east. Tories must be holding on to a chunk of the Hindu vote and labour losing Muslims
    Thats part of it, but Vaz also took off Labour, and Labour also had a Hindu candidate.

    The Labour party in Leicester has been in a real mess in recent years, with the imposition of Webbe and attempted defenestration of Mayor Soulsby. Its all rather opaque.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963
    londonpubman said:

    Jonathan Ashworth out in Leicester South!!!

    That two labour losses in that city. Crazy results tonight
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Could end up being very close between CON and LD. Not sure CON will get 100 now
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    That's a real shame about Jonathan Ashworth. He comes across as a really nice guy and it's a shame he won't be in government.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,582
    RobD said:

    Monksfield said:

    Ah well, a Reform contingent of Tice, Farage and 30p should be fun to watch.

    I wonder if they'll actually do anything in Parliament.
    Outside of the bar?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,007
    I'm tired. Bristol Central, hurry up
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,699
    Con hold Mid Beds - another tight one - just 1,321 maj
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    IanB2 said:

    Clacton declaring, Farage wins, 21,200, Con 12,800 Lab 7,400

    So much for suggestions that Labour could come through the middle

    They stopped campaigning though?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,761
    Pulpstar said:

    Ashworth !!

    Who is Shockat Adam?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037
    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    If that happens, I will have won almost every single bet :smile:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,750
    londonpubman said:

    Jonathan Ashworth out in Leicester South!!!

    Shockat Adam Independent wins Leicester South from Jon Ashworth.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited July 5
    Some proper crazy results. The incoming government with a mega majority losing seats and one with a well known candidate.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 225
    Selebian said:

    biggles said:

    Oh god. Corbyn rant incoming.

    Saved by Clacton count!

    Might mean Farage rant incoming :open_mouth:
    You were right!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,920
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    If that happens, I will have won almost every single bet :smile:
    It's the 1997 poll.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    Kerching.

    Some more GE bets placed today.

    66/1 on the Greens to win Brighton Kemptown & Peacehaven and the Tories to win 150-199 seats at 7/1.

    https://x.com/TSEofPB/status/1807354937757581487
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,560
    ITV put Labour up, BBC have put them down, curious.

    Tony Blair's record may yet be in tact
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Newton Abbott LD gain

    Well done @IanB2 and @ClippP

    Reform 8,500. No wonder Farage held a rally there.

    Anyway, really glad Anne Morris has been booted out.
    Maybe you should have a think about why you were so wrong, and so nasty about it,
    I said you could make a case for all 4 but you were pedalling party politics. And your nastiness to poor Big G showed through again I’m afraid.

    Anyway, as I said I’m pleased for the LibDems down there so don’t be curmudgeonly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,483
    edited July 5
    Manuela Perteghella elected as LD MP for Stratford-on-Avon by around 7,000 votes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001526
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,650
    Farage gracious, not.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,142
    Nigel says he's keen to fill our gaps.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Cons holding 50/50s against Lab and losing them against LDs.

    Shoudl end up close to the 131
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Benpointer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MORE VOTES THAN STARMER :D

    Oh God, BJO will never let us hear the end of it.
    His Messiah lives!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    tlg86 said:

    That's a real shame about Jonathan Ashworth. He comes across as a really nice guy and it's a shame he won't be in government.

    Labour top team not exactly overflowing with talent, and he was far from the worst of them.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 225
    Does anyone have a view on the Inverness seat, in view of the AJockalypse?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    Really???? More chance of me winning Wimbledon the tennis not the constituency than CON getting 150+
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    Farage saying he will be in it to win it for 2029
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    ITV put Labour up, BBC have put them down, curious.

    Tony Blair's record may yet be in tact

    Yes I’m baffled!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    londonpubman said:

    Jonathan Ashworth out in Leicester South!!!

    Shockat Adam Independent wins Leicester South from Jon Ashworth.
    That’s Lord Ashworth, thanks
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,920
    londonpubman said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    Really???? More chance of me winning Wimbledon the tennis not the constituency than CON getting 150+
    It's the 1997 exit poll.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,803
    Lab gain Penrith!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,241
    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    163 seats for Con would be better than they did 1997, just?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    Com 163?! Eh? Really?

    How do they get that?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,699
    Con 151 to 199 is 21 on Betfair!!!!!!!!!
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    Jon Ashworth LOST Leicester South to an independent candidate
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967
    Farage in his speech talking about how much Reform UK has done in such a short space of time. What short space of time? The party was founded nearly 6 years ago!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,920
    @Sean_F - very naughty.
This discussion has been closed.