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It’s looking like ajockalypse now for the SNP in the early results – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ashworth !!

    Who is Shockat Adam?
    Pro-Gaza candidate
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,452
    EPG said:

    Farage gracious, not.

    How was that ungracious? He praised the other candidates and was quite sober and strategic in his comments about the new Labour government.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    edited July 5
    Jon Ashworth has lost his seat! Not sure who to though. Leicester South.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited July 5
    Badenoch holds.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,637
    I wonder what Farage means by coming for Labour votes. I mean, the Reform manifesto 2024 was Trussonomics + anti-immigration, surely there's a ceiling on how many labour voters will find that attractive. So what will Reform 2029 policies look like?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    Has Penny Mordaunt definitely lost Portsmouth North?

    Can’t see the results?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001431
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    ITV put Labour up, BBC have put them down, curious.

    Tony Blair's record may yet be in tact

    I think with the results we had in the last 30 mins all the models are shitting the bed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,078
    williamglenn said:

    EPG said:

    Farage gracious, not.

    How was that ungracious? He praised the other candidates and was quite sober and strategic in his comments about the new Labour government.
    He was decent, and lucid. But unexciting.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701
    HUGE win for BIG NIGE
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,876
    Kemi wins - Next Con leader?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,310
    williamglenn said:

    EPG said:

    Farage gracious, not.

    How was that ungracious? He praised the other candidates and was quite sober and strategic in his comments about the new Labour government.
    No mention of Russia, strangely.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,594
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    ITV put Labour up, BBC have put them down, curious.

    Tony Blair's record may yet be in tact

    BBC presumably means Curtis.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    This is so clearly an anti-Tory election rather than a pro-Starmer's Labour party election. Where the Tories have been less likely to win, Labour have underperformed by a lot...
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    LD gain St Neots and South Cambs. With Chelmsford a decent presence in the East.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,992
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    If that happens, I will have won almost every single bet :smile:
    It's the 1997 poll.
    Well, that's confusing.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    Con hold Nadine`s seat
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,323
    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    Interesting. ITV have Con 130 Lab 414 LD 60 Ref 10 SNP 11
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    DUP have conceded Lagan Valley - that'll be an APNI gain
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,927
    SPIN still has Con 115-121, if anybody wants to dive in
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    Com 163?! Eh? Really?

    How do they get that?
    Don’t know but I make more money if they get over 150 :smiley:
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    Kemi - 2,610 maj
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 947
    The seat by seats results are insane. So many different results
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Leicester South -> Ind gain from Lab

    Ind 14,739
    Lab 13,760
    Con 4,820
    Grn 3,826
    Ref 2,470
    LD 1,425
    Ind 339
    Comm 279
    Loony 189

    https://x.com/BalancePowerUK/status/1809052160589713900/photo/1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    Monksfield said:

    LD gain St Neots and South Cambs. With Chelmsford a decent presence in the East.

    Mid cambs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    edited July 5
    GIN1138 said:

    Kemi wins - Next Con leader?

    Tory MPs I still think will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,622
    Aberdeen South. Proper 3 way
    Flynn 15,313 lab 11,455 refuk 3199 con 11300. So not close
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    Benpointer said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    Interesting. ITV have Con 130 Lab 414 LD 60 Ref 10 SNP 11
    That's the 97 poll. Note "referendum".
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 387
    edited July 5
    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    Not logged into betfair, so odds might be delayed on my screen, but from what I can see, con seat band 150-199 available at 13/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,376
    MikeL said:

    Kemi - 2,610 maj

    Cripes. Small majority for that seat.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,078
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    EPG said:

    Farage gracious, not.

    How was that ungracious? He praised the other candidates and was quite sober and strategic in his comments about the new Labour government.
    He was decent, and lucid. But unexciting.
    Albeit it's 330am, so I'll give him a break.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    @Sean_F making a joke that spooked everyone
  • TimSTimS Posts: 11,967
    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    So real results are better for the Tories than the exit poll. Same as 2015 and 1992.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 12,830
    Far left seem to be doing better than the far right.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    Casino_Royale said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    If that happens, I will have won almost every single bet :smile:
    It's the 1997 poll.
    Well, that's confusing.
    Why would the BBC put the 1997 poll up like that?

    Argh!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    edited July 5
    Mid Beds Con hold and Orpington Con hold and Romsey Con hold
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,323
    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    So real results are better for the Tories than the exit poll. Same as 2015 and 1992.
    Fake news I believe.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    edited July 5
    .
    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    So real results are better for the Tories than the exit poll. Same as 2015 and 1992.
    For the upteenth time, Sean's post was the 1997 exit poll.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,594
    Was Ashworth Shadow Cabinet? That gets Alexander in.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,716
    It’s not the 1997 exit poll. Now Lab 405, con 154, LD 56.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    edited July 5
    Rugby Lab gain, Gravesham Lab gain, Redditch Lab gain
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    Midlothian

    Labour: 21480 (48.6%, +18.9)
    SNP: 13313 (30.1%, -11.4)
    Reform UK: 3276 (7.4%, new)
    Conservative: 3248 (7.4%, -14.4)
    Lib Dem: 2589 (5.9%, -1.2)
    Libertarian: 259 (0.6%)

    Labour GAIN from SNP
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    163 seats for Con would be better than they did 1997, just?
    165 in 1997!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    Oh Referendum, how weird.

    As you were.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    Con hold Romsey
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Cookie said:

    Far left seem to be doing better than the far right.

    It’s on a very specific issue though.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    Con are clearly going to be 150-200 bracket
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Aberdeen South. Proper 3 way
    Flynn 15,313 lab 11,455 refuk 3199 con 11300. So not close

    Lab and Con were always going to cancel each other out there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    GIN1138 said:

    Kemi wins - Next Con leader?

    Lay the favourite.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    Sean_F said:

    It’s not the 1997 exit poll. Now Lab 405, con 154, LD 56.

    But you listed "Referendum" on 4. Last time I checked they weren't standing...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Orpington Con hold
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    So real results are better for the Tories than the exit poll. Same as 2015 and 1992.
    No that’s not the case. At least not really. See the ITV update.

    But it’s a very complicated picture.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Those disturbances in Leicester were a harbinger. Two Labour seats lost tonight.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701
    Scott_xP said:

    @PaulGoodmanCH

    Leicester East is a terrible warning of British politics dividing on communal lines - with the Conservatives becoming the party of India and Israel, and Labour that of Pakistan and Palestine. No good can come of it.

    WHAT DID YOU FECKING EXPECT
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,574
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    londonpubman said:

    Jonathan Ashworth out in Leicester South!!!

    Shockat Adam Independent wins Leicester South from Jon Ashworth.
    He has had a lot of posters up, and had the team out opposite the Masjid this morning that I mentioned at lunchtime.

    a local optometrist.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    edited July 5
    Jeremy Vine with new projection:

    Lab 405 (-5 compared to earlier)
    Con 154 (+23)
    LD 56 (-5)
    SNP 6 (-4)
    PC 4
    Ref 4
    Grn 2
    Oth 19
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    I am now the confused lady with the maths gif
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,876
    Poor Jezza. :(
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    I’m not disappointed that Corbyn won. Parliament needs a range of voices.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    148grss said:

    This is so clearly an anti-Tory election rather than a pro-Starmer's Labour party election. Where the Tories have been less likely to win, Labour have underperformed by a lot...

    They are losing vote share, and obviously votes, across the board. How much was tactical unwind of Greens for Corbyn, Islamic interest votes, and just sheer low stakes of an expected big nationwide majority, is hard to say.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,927
    Heathener said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    If that happens, I will have won almost every single bet :smile:
    It's the 1997 poll.
    Well, that's confusing.
    Why would the BBC put the 1997 poll up like that?

    Argh!!
    @Sean_F may have been a little bit fibby. And I'm sure that given it's 3:30 in the morning and we're all tired, we all appreciate his little japes. Ho. Ho. Ho.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    REF GAIN Great Yarmouth!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,716
    It’s the BBC projection, NOTHING to do with 1997.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    Falkirk is a Labour GAIN - 25.7% swing from the SNP. Labour vote is up 31 points, SNP down 20.4, Tories down 17.5. Toni Guigliano once again falls short.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Andy_JS said:

    Manuela Perteghella elected as LD MP for Stratford-on-Avon by around 7,000 votes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001526

    Chris Clarkson was a Tory MP from the North, they should have picked a local Tory
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    edited July 5
    Heathener said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    Com 163?! Eh? Really?

    How do they get that?
    Don’t know but I make more money if they get over 150 :smiley:
    154 is the BBC revised exit prediction

    Reform cut to 4, and LDs to 56. So far, my initial reaction to the exit poll is reflected by the BBC adjustment,
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    BBC NEW FORECAST:

    Lab 405
    Con 154
    LD 56
    SNP 6
    PC 4
    Ref 4
    Grn 2
    Oth 19
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    edited July 5
    BBC now projects 405 Labour, 154 Tories, LDs 56, PC 4, Ref 4, Greens 2. Labour majority of 160
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    BBC now have Reform projection on 4. That's more like it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,323
    (Real) new BBC forecast: Lab 405, Con 154, LD 56, SNP 6, PC 4, Ref 4, Green 2
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    REFORM WINS GREAT YARMOUTH IN NORFOLK FROM CONSERVATIVES - Brandon Lewis's old seat
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    Reform with 4 seems more realistic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,574
    biggles said:

    Was Ashworth Shadow Cabinet? That gets Alexander in.

    Shadow Paymaster
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    Corbyn talking about running a positive campaign - utter rubbish. It was firmly focussed on knocking the baby-eating NHS-privatising Labour candidate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    MikeL said:

    BBC NEW FORECAST:

    Lab 405
    Con 154
    LD 56
    SNP 6
    PC 4
    Ref 4
    Grn 2
    Oth 19

    Kerching.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,716
    viewcode said:

    Heathener said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    If that happens, I will have won almost every single bet :smile:
    It's the 1997 poll.
    Well, that's confusing.
    Why would the BBC put the 1997 poll up like that?

    Argh!!
    @Sean_F may have been a little bit fibby. And I'm sure that given it's 3:30 in the morning and we're all tired, we all appreciate his little japes. Ho. Ho. Ho.
    Where has the notion come from that I posted 1997 numbers?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Ashworth, lmao there's your Portillo moment
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    MikeL said:

    BBC NEW FORECAST:

    Lab 405
    Con 154
    LD 56
    SNP 6
    PC 4
    Ref 4
    Grn 2
    Oth 19

    SKY still showing the 10pm Exit Poll.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    edited July 5
    Ashworth loses to an Indy in Leicester S. LABOUR LOSS
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,310
    Reform prediction down to 4 seats
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 947
    Ashworths shouldn't have made those anti Bangladeshi comments given his seats dynamics
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    "Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt

    Brutal few minutes. IDS and Dowden keep their seats. Farage secures his. Ashworth loses his. All utterly terrible results."

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809053875673907518
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,452
    HYUFD said:

    BBC now projects 405 Labour, 154 Tories, LDs 56, PC 4, Ref 4, Greens 2. Labour majority of 160

    Starmer's honeymoon didn't even last until the end of the count.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 387
    Fabricant lost to lab
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    Sean_F said:

    It’s the BBC projection, NOTHING to do with 1997.

    Sorry, you shouldn't have put "referendum"...!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,528
    Can we now at least put to bed the idea of the LibDems as the official Opposition?

    Twas always twaddle.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,980
    Reform actually gaining seats. Great Yarmouth.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    edited July 5
    Tim_in_Ruislip said:

    Fabricant lost to lab

    Didn't expect The Wig to lose. Was it close?
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 125
    Gurning Gullis gone
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 874
    AugustusCarp2 said:

    Does anyone have a view on the Inverness seat, in view of the AJockalypse?

    The sun is rising rapidly. Had four friends over, young professional types. We all voted Lib Dem, including an independence supporter, but we think Hendry has hung on, though we have no real proof.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    Andy_JS said:

    "Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt

    Brutal few minutes. IDS and Dowden keep their seats. Farage secures his. Ashworth loses his. All utterly terrible results."

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809053875673907518

    Wow he managed a tweet without a swear word....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Edmonton Lab hold, Coventry S Lab hold, Edmonton Lab hold
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,992
    Sean_F said:

    It’s not the 1997 exit poll. Now Lab 405, con 154, LD 56.

    Can you please confirm that's the BBC's revised forecast
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 669
    Jonathan Gullis has lost his seat.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC now projects 405 Labour, 154 Tories, LDs 56, PC 4, Ref 4, Greens 2. Labour majority of 160

    Starmer's honeymoon didn't even last until the end of the count.
    Good news, he will have five years of this 400+ seat misery.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,594
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC now projects 405 Labour, 154 Tories, LDs 56, PC 4, Ref 4, Greens 2. Labour majority of 160

    Starmer's honeymoon didn't even last until the end of the count.
    If he keeps losing seats at the rate the majority will have done by mid-July.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,716
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    It’s the BBC projection, NOTHING to do with 1997.

    Sorry, you shouldn't have put "referendum"...!
    Damn predictive text!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    If Tories sneak over 150 seats I will eat my hat, then buy a much nicer one with my winnings from it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,501
    HYUFD said:

    Mid Beds Con hold and Orpington Con hold and Romsey Con hold

    I was hoping we would win Romsey, but still she will probably defect to us anyway. She is a LD in all but name.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,876
    edited July 5
    Have to say Sir John did an outstanding job with the exit poll in what is a VERY difficult and complicated election.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,257
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Heathener said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    If that happens, I will have won almost every single bet :smile:
    It's the 1997 poll.
    Well, that's confusing.
    Why would the BBC put the 1997 poll up like that?

    Argh!!
    @Sean_F may have been a little bit fibby. And I'm sure that given it's 3:30 in the morning and we're all tired, we all appreciate his little japes. Ho. Ho. Ho.
    Where has the notion come from that I posted 1997 numbers?
    Not far off the current BBC forecast though!
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics
This discussion has been closed.