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It’s looking like ajockalypse now for the SNP in the early results – politicalbetting.com

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,927
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Heathener said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    If that happens, I will have won almost every single bet :smile:
    It's the 1997 poll.
    Well, that's confusing.
    Why would the BBC put the 1997 poll up like that?

    Argh!!
    @Sean_F may have been a little bit fibby. And I'm sure that given it's 3:30 in the morning and we're all tired, we all appreciate his little japes. Ho. Ho. Ho.
    Where has the notion come from that I posted 1997 numbers?
    The Referendum Party bit
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    Was huge Betfair opportunity on Con seats over 150 - now in to 3.3!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Great Yarmouth -> Reform gain.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,078
    MikeL said:

    BBC NEW FORECAST:

    Lab 405
    Con 154
    LD 56
    SNP 6
    PC 4
    Ref 4
    Grn 2
    Oth 19

    Looks like I'm a rich man.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    Tim_in_Ruislip said:

    Fabricant lost to lab

    Keep your hair on, everybody!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Aldridge Brownhills Con hold
  • CookieCookie Posts: 12,830
    KentRising said:

    BBC now have Reform projection on 4. That's more like it.

    Clacton, Ashfield, Great Yarmouth ... where else?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    MikeL said:

    Was huge Betfair opportunity on Con seats over 150 - now in to 3.3!

    Backed at 38 and sold at 17

    Hmmm

    2/10 must try harder
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    It’s not the 1997 exit poll. Now Lab 405, con 154, LD 56.

    Can you please confirm that's the BBC's revised forecast
    Its on the front page of the bbc news website.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    Cookie said:

    KentRising said:

    BBC now have Reform projection on 4. That's more like it.

    Clacton, Ashfield, Great Yarmouth ... where else?

    Boston?
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 947
    Cookie said:

    KentRising said:

    BBC now have Reform projection on 4. That's more like it.

    Clacton, Ashfield, Great Yarmouth ... where else?
    Boston?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    10m
    Lib Dems win Stratford-upon-Avon on a 24.5% swing. Huge.
  • RealAleDrinkerRealAleDrinker Posts: 31
    is that a wedding cake on her head?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,016
    Cookie said:

    KentRising said:

    BBC now have Reform projection on 4. That's more like it.

    Clacton, Ashfield, Great Yarmouth ... where else?
    Depends on whether Tice can win in Skegness
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,992
    Andy_JS said:

    Jeremy Vine with new projection:

    Lab 405 (-5 compared to earlier)
    Con 154 (+23)
    LD 56 (-5)
    SNP 6 (-4)
    PC 4
    Ref 4
    Grn 2
    Oth 19

    If that's true then this is much more like a 1997GE result overall. Hence the confusion.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    Cookie said:

    KentRising said:

    BBC now have Reform projection on 4. That's more like it.

    Clacton, Ashfield, Great Yarmouth ... where else?
    Basildon? Boston?

    That's about it though
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    North West Essex

    Con 19360
    Lab 16750
    Ref 7668
    LD 6055
    Grn 2846

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001402
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    GIN1138 said:

    Have to say Sir John did an outstanding job with the exit poll in what is a VERY difficult and complicated election.

    And we were all fooled - thinking 131 was too high!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    BBC projection looking like my final prediction. I got the SNP wrong though.

    Labour: 392
    Con: 155
    LD 53
    SNP: 23
    Ref: 4
    Green: 2
    Independent: 1
    Speaker: 1
    NI: 18
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC NEW FORECAST:

    Lab 405
    Con 154
    LD 56
    SNP 6
    PC 4
    Ref 4
    Grn 2
    Oth 19

    Looks like I'm a rich man.
    ITVs forecast significantly different to this, with Labour doing better than exit poll. Which one has a better record at this kind of thing?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5
    Its a very confusing picture other than obviously Labour big majority. But all sorts of strangeness.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,057
    Interesting RefUK are down badly in new projection. Slightly surprised about Lib Dems also being down a bit - maybe I've missed some key results, but they seemed to be surprising on the upside a bit.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    Have the BBC adjusted their results too much based on a lot of very specific seats with weird local circumstances (Chingford, St Pancras, the Leicesters etc) ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,992
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Heathener said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    If that happens, I will have won almost every single bet :smile:
    It's the 1997 poll.
    Well, that's confusing.
    Why would the BBC put the 1997 poll up like that?

    Argh!!
    @Sean_F may have been a little bit fibby. And I'm sure that given it's 3:30 in the morning and we're all tired, we all appreciate his little japes. Ho. Ho. Ho.
    Where has the notion come from that I posted 1997 numbers?
    You said Referendum, I think.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,876
    MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Have to say Sir John did an outstanding job with the exit poll in what is a VERY difficult and complicated election.

    And we were all fooled - thinking 131 was too high!
    Not me. I always thought the exit poll was holding up well.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Interesting RefUK are down badly in new projection. Slightly surprised about Lib Dems also being down a bit - maybe I've missed some key results, but they seemed to be surprising on the upside a bit.

    I still think the LDs could get between 60 and 70.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    Andy_JS said:

    Jeremy Vine with new projection:

    Lab 405 (-5 compared to earlier)
    Con 154 (+23)
    LD 56 (-5)
    SNP 6 (-4)
    PC 4
    Ref 4
    Grn 2
    Oth 19

    I’m happy with that. Makes me more money. It’s quite close to 1997.

    Solid and smart Labour landslide but with some notable blemishes and warnings ahead.

    LibDems have done very well.

    All this talk of Conservative extinction was nonsense.

    Reform have flopped.

    And with that I’m going to bed.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    Slightly baffled Labour have been revised down based on Reform's current performance
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,992
    Have all the returning officers got on a WhatsApp and promised to wear the Edwardian hats?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,157
    Some of the Labour red wall gains are by less than expected.

    Rother Valley by 998 and Scunthorpe by 3,542.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Interesting RefUK are down badly in new projection. Slightly surprised about Lib Dems also being down a bit - maybe I've missed some key results, but they seemed to be surprising on the upside a bit.

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Interesting RefUK are down badly in new projection. Slightly surprised about Lib Dems also being down a bit - maybe I've missed some key results, but they seemed to be surprising on the upside a bit.

    RefUK will get five I think.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Tim_in_Ruislip said:

    Fabricant lost to lab

    Pity, his hair will be missed and his quips
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,716
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Heathener said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    If that happens, I will have won almost every single bet :smile:
    It's the 1997 poll.
    Well, that's confusing.
    Why would the BBC put the 1997 poll up like that?

    Argh!!
    @Sean_F may have been a little bit fibby. And I'm sure that given it's 3:30 in the morning and we're all tired, we all appreciate his little japes. Ho. Ho. Ho.
    Where has the notion come from that I posted 1997 numbers?
    The Referendum Party bit
    Sorry, predictive text.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 125
    2 PC gains tonight
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,594
    Paristonda said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC NEW FORECAST:

    Lab 405
    Con 154
    LD 56
    SNP 6
    PC 4
    Ref 4
    Grn 2
    Oth 19

    Looks like I'm a rich man.
    ITVs forecast significantly different to this, with Labour doing better than exit poll. Which one has a better record at this kind of thing?
    The BBc has John Curtis. Never bet against him.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Not sure what the basis for dropping LD seats is. I haven’t seen many targets missed yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Labour gain Southend E and Rochford
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Plaid GAIN Caerfyrddin from Con
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Am hearing this is the lowest election turn out in history? Roughly 57% turnout? That does not feel good...
  • FffsFffs Posts: 64
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    It’s not the 1997 exit poll. Now Lab 405, con 154, LD 56.

    But you listed "Referendum" on 4. Last time I checked they weren't standing...
    They weren't forecast four seats in 1997, though
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,622
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Interesting RefUK are down badly in new projection. Slightly surprised about Lib Dems also being down a bit - maybe I've missed some key results, but they seemed to be surprising on the upside a bit.

    We’re here scratching our heads at this. We’re gaining unexpected seats with big swings. That doesn’t suggest we fail in others
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Fabricant gone
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,527
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    EPG said:

    Farage gracious, not.

    How was that ungracious? He praised the other candidates and was quite sober and strategic in his comments about the new Labour government.
    He was decent, and lucid. But unexciting.
    Typically self-centred I thought - "I will put Clacton on the map" (thanks Nige but Clacton was already on the map, bit of an insight into how you think of the place). "Reform has come so far in a few weeks" (since he became leader, because clearly before then it was going nowhere). Watching his ego crash into the reality of being an MP in a small opposition party with a load of other egotists to deal with will be fun.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,716
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Heathener said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC now project Lab 401, Con 163, Lib Dem 50, SNP 8, Referendum 4.

    If that happens, I will have won almost every single bet :smile:
    It's the 1997 poll.
    Well, that's confusing.
    Why would the BBC put the 1997 poll up like that?

    Argh!!
    @Sean_F may have been a little bit fibby. And I'm sure that given it's 3:30 in the morning and we're all tired, we all appreciate his little japes. Ho. Ho. Ho.
    Where has the notion come from that I posted 1997 numbers?
    You said Referendum, I think.
    Sorry, predictive text
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Have to say Sir John did an outstanding job with the exit poll in what is a VERY difficult and complicated election.

    And we were all fooled - thinking 131 was too high!
    Ahem, I wasn’t, I said the LD and Reform figures were too high and Labour’s about right
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    LDs GAIN Hants NE
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    edited July 5
    Lichfield -> Lab gain

    Lab 17,232
    Con 16,422
    Ref 9,734
    LD 3,572
    Grn 1,724

    Lab maj 810

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001335

    First time they've won the seat since 1974.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,966
    Monksfield said:

    Not sure what the basis for dropping LD seats is. I haven’t seen many targets missed yet.

    Yeah... actually ahead on my target list. Maybe Surrey not doing too well?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    Plaid win Caerfyrddin, Greens Bristol C. Extending the not-government run of each - in the case of the Carmarthen seat, since 2001.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,601
    Hampshire NE??????!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Yay, Sorcha Eastwood has won!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    Fffs said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    It’s not the 1997 exit poll. Now Lab 405, con 154, LD 56.

    But you listed "Referendum" on 4. Last time I checked they weren't standing...
    They weren't forecast four seats in 1997, though
    Sorry, but I don't have the 1997 exit poll etched into my memory. I do remember what parties were standing though.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    How many senior shadow minister should you be losing on a landslide where you sweep into power?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    The media will be all about Farage this weekend when actually the real story is Starmer/Reeves/Mattinson/McSweeney delivering an unbelievable turn around in one parliament from 2019.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    Con hold Meriden
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Labour gain Thanet E and Milton Keynes North
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    Wokingham LD
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,376
    LD Gain Hampshire NE o_O !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Reform gain Great Yarmouth
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,376
    Lab Gain Isle of Wight W !
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    East Hants has to be close.

    Did anyone pop a punt on as I said?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    Chameleon said:

    How many senior shadow minister should you be losing on a landslide where you sweep into power?

    Good thing there's no rules.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Monksfield said:

    Not sure what the basis for dropping LD seats is. I haven’t seen many targets missed yet.

    Consequence of tactical voting and lower shares where they aren’t really competing?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    edited July 5
    Chichester -> LD gain

    LD 25,214
    Con 13,368
    Ref 7,859
    Lab 3,175
    Grn 1,815
    Ind 190
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    If Lib Dems gain Hampshire NE then the Blue Wall is gone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Labour gain Clwyd N
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,218
    Tim_in_Ruislip said:

    Fabricant lost to lab

    Hair today. Gone tomorrow.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    edited July 5
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Interesting RefUK are down badly in new projection. Slightly surprised about Lib Dems also being down a bit - maybe I've missed some key results, but they seemed to be surprising on the upside a bit.

    There were some foolish predicted gains from Labour in the Exit Poll - like Cambridge, where they missed by miles, which have dropped out of the prediction. So far the only surprise on the upside is Skipton.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Wiggy! Out!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    edited July 5
    Cons hold Bridgwater
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,938
    Big win for Alliance in Lagan Valley!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    Yarmouth - Reform
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,995
    Pulpstar said:

    LD Gain Hampshire NE o_O !

    £3 @ 33-1

    That has saved my night, I think.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 11,967
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Slightly baffled Labour have been revised down based on Reform's current performance

    The worse Reform do, the better Con do.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,452
    When the dust settles there will be huge recriminations if it looks like the election was winnable for the Tories if they had a decent leader and better campaign and strategy.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    Lab gain Bury St Edmunds - tight one
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Hearing Carla has won Bristol Central and Greens a very strong second in Bristol South
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 150
    Mike F gone.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 617
    Andy_JS said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Interesting RefUK are down badly in new projection. Slightly surprised about Lib Dems also being down a bit - maybe I've missed some key results, but they seemed to be surprising on the upside a bit.

    I still think the LDs could get between 60 and 70.
    Only missed Romsey so far on the target list. And Newton Abbot wasn't on mine,
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,310
    edited July 5
    Yay! Lichfield!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 11,967
    bondegezou said:

    Big win for Alliance in Lagan Valley!

    Add that to the LD total.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 947
    148grss said:

    Am hearing this is the lowest election turn out in history? Roughly 57% turnout? That does not feel good...

    10% down on last time. That is not a great mandate
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    williamglenn said:

    When the dust settles there will be huge recriminations if it looks like the election was winnable for the Tories if they had a decent leader and better campaign and strategy.

    And could squeeze Reform
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277

    NEW THREAD

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    LD gain Devon North
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Gillian Keegan loses Chichester to LDs!
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,251
    Terrified that shithead Yaqoob is going to win Ladywood in light of that Leicester result.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,323
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    If Lib Dems gain Hampshire NE then the Blue Wall is gone.

    None of the prediction models had that one as a LD gain.
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 150
    I genuine thought that Fabricant was a character made up by sketch writers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,078
    Andy_JS said:

    Chichester -> LD gain

    LD 25,214
    Con 13,368
    Ref 7,859
    Lab 3,175
    Grn 1,815
    Ind 190

    That's quite a margin.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,520
    Cometh the hour, goeth the man.

    Farewell, Michael Fabricant.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    rottenborough said:

    The media will be all about Farage this weekend when actually the real story is Starmer/Reeves/Mattinson/McSweeney delivering an unbelievable turn around in one parliament from 2019.

    The media adore Farage and his activities. Whether this is due to his appeal to both fans and critics, or vice versa, it's too late to care.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    LDs GAIN Hants NE

    One of their longer shots
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    Con hold Bridgwater - maj 1,349
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Suella holds on in Fareham!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    I did say I'd never seen so many Lib Dem posters, albeit in East Hants.
This discussion has been closed.