Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

It’s looking like ajockalypse now for the SNP in the early results – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 5 in General
It’s looking like ajockalypse now for the SNP in the early results – politicalbetting.com

Paisley and Renfrewshire South:Labour: 19583 (47.4%, +21.6)SNP: 13056 (31.6%, -18.1)Reform UK: 2956 (7.2%, +7.2)Conservative: 2219 (5.4%, -12.8)Green: 1724 (4.2%, new)Lib Dem: 1315 (3.2%, -3)Independent: 317 (0.8%)Freedom Alliance: 113 (0.3%,)Labour GAIN from SNP pic.twitter.com/AsAt95hmk2

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462
    First like Labour
  • Options
    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 627
    Con Gain Leicester east!
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Grant Shapps looks like he's about to cry
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131
    Is Leicester E the first Labour loss?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326
    Bristol Central, where are yooooo!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    Con gain in Leicester East!
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    Just to expand on the header - 4th, 11th, and 16th safest SNP seats all swept away by thousands (5k, 6k, 6.5k Lab majorities (not respectively)).
  • Options
    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 627

    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.

    Harrow East must be a Tory hold
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Con hold Wyre Forest by just 812!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Pro_Rata said:

    Is Leicester E the first Labour loss?

    Yes.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Leicester East -> Con gain

    Con 14,526
    Lab 10,100
    LD 6,329
    Ind Webbe 5,532
    Ind Vaz 3,681
    Ref 2,611
    Grn 2,143
    Ind 974
    Ind 703
    Ind 115

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001326
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    IDS winning is more Starmer's fault than Shaheen - basically a statistical tie between her and the Labour candidate and it was the party that decided to chuck her for no reason
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    edited July 5
    As well as the Lab/Con/Ref story, this election is kind of a reversal of 2015.

    Lib-Dem 2015 wipeout, reversed. SNP tsunami, reversed.

    In politics, nothing is forever...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Nunu5 said:

    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.

    Harrow East must be a Tory hold
    IDS won because Shaheen was as popular as the official Labour candidate, that’s all. Doesn’t say anything about Harrow
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Sorry, am still reeling from Hexham going Labour. Even Tony B didn't manage that.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    SNP hold Aberdeen North.

    BOO
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Schnapps blaming internal Tory divisions and infighting
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Sorry, am still reeling from Hexham going Labour. Even Tony B didn't manage that.

    Ya joker from Hexham. Indeed quite the result.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Con hold Sleaford
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    How on earth did Claudia Webbe get five and a half thousand votes?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    MikeL said:

    Con hold Wyre Forest by just 812!

    That was always likely to be close.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    Nunu5 said:

    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.

    Harrow East must be a Tory hold
    DYOR, but there were two former Labour MPs standing against Labour, and I'd reflect on whether Harrow East has already had this phenomenon baked in during the 2010s.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    rcs1000 said:

    SNP hold Aberdeen North.

    BOO

    That's Aberdeen City North. Not Aberdeenshire North & Moray East. I think.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    viewcode said:

    Bristol Central, where are yooooo!

    We kept being told earlier it was an easy Green win but maybe it's much closer.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Ghedebrav said:

    Sorry, am still reeling from Hexham going Labour. Even Tony B didn't manage that.

    Ya joker from Hexham. Indeed quite the result.
    Doesn't bode well for AMT in North Northumberland next door.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    viewcode said:

    Bristol Central, where are yooooo!

    Green win for sure
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Andy_JS said:

    MikeL said:

    Con hold Wyre Forest by just 812!

    That was always likely to be close.
    Indeed, down to the [STOP IT!]
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    JC - So far, the Conservatives have been losing every seat where their lead over Labour was less than 30%. Similarly, the party has also lost every seat it has been defending against the Liberal Democrats where the majority was less than 30%.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    rcs1000 said:

    SNP hold Aberdeen North.

    BOO

    That's Aberdeen City North. Not Aberdeenshire North & Moray East. I think.
    YAY!
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    South Cambs LD
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    Which PBer(s) said it was a boring election???
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    edited July 5
    MikeL said:

    Con hold Wyre Forest by just 812!

    Exit poll had 71% chance of Labour gain. Labour having a rocky run here - initially looked to be outperforming exit poll, but doesn't look that way now. Although Scotland looks strong.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Very tight still in ANME.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    148grss said:

    IDS winning is more Starmer's fault than Shaheen - basically a statistical tie between her and the Labour candidate and it was the party that decided to chuck her for no reason

    Indeed, though IDS was also a good constituency MP and can now try and reintroduce his death by dangerous cycling bill as a private members' bill
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261

    Oxfordshire looking exceptionally good for the LibDems.

    I'm relying on Henley to make my night, so fingers crossed.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Is that Andrea Jenkyns gone?
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    Farage looking very unhappy at his count (pictures now on ITV)
  • Options
    GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Why do they keep showing endless speeches from candidates which are always identical and bland when they could be showing results?
  • Options
    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 503

    Sorry, am still reeling from Hexham going Labour. Even Tony B didn't manage that.

    It was like that in most of the MRPs (iirc) so am pretty relaxed. I'm going to blame the sugar tax. Not because it's true but because I hate it. The most important product produced in Hexham is Fentimans, most of which's drinks are now undrinkable since they changed the formulation to use steviol rather than sugar.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @PaulGoodmanCH

    Leicester East is a terrible warning of British politics dividing on communal lines - with the Conservatives becoming the party of India and Israel, and Labour that of Pakistan and Palestine. No good can come of it.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Labour gains

    Bracknell
    Hexham
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited July 5
    Blair McDougall took East Renfrewshire off the SNP on a 24.7% swing.

    SNP getting squished is another big story of the night.


    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1809049434358984919
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Bad news for Grant Shapps, but Michael Green, Sebastian Fox and Corinne Stockheath all still have a chance.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261

    JC - So far, the Conservatives have been losing every seat where their lead over Labour was less than 30%. Similarly, the party has also lost every seat it has been defending against the Liberal Democrats where the majority was less than 30%.

    Going to be hilarious the arguments over whether the SNP or Tories lost worst this election.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,234
    Scot Lab are going to outpoll rUK Labour aren't they? :lol:
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562

    MikeL said:

    Con hold Wyre Forest by just 812!

    Exit poll had 71% chance of Labour gain. Labour having a rocky run here - initially looked to be outperforming exit poll, but doesn't look that way now. Although Scotland looks strong.
    As noted above, it’s the Shires (to use shorthand). The bits that aren’t overly LibDem or Reform.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    Andrea Jenkyns out :)
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Pulpstar said:

    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...

    Be v surprised if he hasn’t, but would be top bantz.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    Ynys Mon goes Plaid.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758

    ANOTHER TORY GAIN.

    Andrea Jenkyns has lost.

    George Osborne just broke that news to Ed Balls.

    Ed Balls: "You had her introduce your conference speech in 2015. You weren't such a fan of hers afterwards..."
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    Zahawi out !
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    Pulpstar said:

    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...

    Could just be a dodgy pint?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.

    Hmm. I backed IDS but backed Vaz twice in Leicester East when I meant to back Vaz plus the winner. Ah well, I've had worse days.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Scott_xP said:

    Andrea Jenkyns out :)

    Awesome! :D
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    tlg86 said:

    ANOTHER TORY GAIN.

    Andrea Jenkyns has lost.

    George Osborne just broke that news to Ed Balls.

    Ed Balls: "You had her introduce your conference speech in 2015. You weren't such a fan of hers afterwards..."
    I helped her win in 2015.

    I will never forgive myself for that.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 5
    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi out !

    Huh...he wasn't standing.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Tories take Leicester East on just 31.1% of the vote. That's FPTP with the vote being split all over the place.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    IDS winning is more Starmer's fault than Shaheen - basically a statistical tie between her and the Labour candidate and it was the party that decided to chuck her for no reason

    Indeed, though IDS was also a good constituency MP and can now try and reintroduce his death by dangerous cycling bill as a private members' bill
    Or do something useful with the extra term as an MP the Labour infighting in the constituency has gifted him.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    ...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi out !

    Not standing
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,441
    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi out !

    Stood down
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    Aberdeen North has gone SNP by 1.7k votes. Their second safest seat with a majority of 14.2k pre-election. All evidence pointing towards low single digits for the SNP.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi out !

    He wasn't standing?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    This election is bonkers.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    Pulpstar said:

    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...

    Better than any other possible Portillo moment, if so...
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Sky demonstrating that uniform swing is bollocks. Of course.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 5
    I am still a bit confused how Starmer seat was down over 30% on turn out compared to usual.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    Rugby gone.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @hannahbechITV

    The @LibDems have made history by unseating the @Conservatives
    in #stratforduponavon for the first time since 1950.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    Penny Out
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    LD gain Stratford.

    Shakespeare would have been a Lib Dem
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    EPG said:

    Ynys Mon goes Plaid.

    Tories lose it but only by 637 votes, closer than expected.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/W07000112
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...

    Be v surprised if he hasn’t, but would be top bantz.
    I'd be staggered if Farage didn't win.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,360
    Pulpstar said:

    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...

    I had a crafty £2 on Lab to come through the middle here.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    South Holland held.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited July 5
    Breaking - Newton Abbot now has a LibDem MP

    An apology from @Heathener for accusing me of dishonesty and ramping would be nice
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Labour gain Hexham and Bracknell and lose Leicester East.

    It's mad out there.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    Newton Abbot LibDem gain! @Heathener we tried.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    LD gain -> Newton Abbot

    LD 15201
    Con 12955
    Lab 8494

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001381
  • Options
    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 627
    IanB2 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.

    Harrow East must be a Tory hold
    IDS won because Shaheen was as popular as the official Labour candidate, that’s all. Doesn’t say anything about Harrow
    I'm talking about Leicester east. Tories must be holding on to a chunk of the Hindu vote and labour losing Muslims
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Con hold South Holland & Deepings
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238

    Newton Abbott LD gain

    BRING IT
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    Oh god. Corbyn rant incoming.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    It seems the Midlands is the really big Labour story this election. The big economic winner in the mid 2010s, probably the biggest loser of all the regions since Brexit and Covid.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited July 5

    Newton Abbott LD gain

    Well done @IanB2 and @ClippP

    Reform 8,500. No wonder Farage held a rally there.

    Anyway, really glad Anne Morris has been booted out.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited July 5
    Islington S - Corby wins with 24,000, Labour 16,800
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Sounds like Corbyn has won.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    Corbyn has pissed it. Was obvious.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758

    I am still a bit confused how Starmer seat was down over 30% on turn out compared to usual.

    The seat is smaller now.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    AlsoLei said:

    Farage looking very unhappy at his count (pictures now on ITV)

    Imagine if Lee is the Lee-der of his Party in Parliament....
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Corbyn looking good…
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Jezza!!!! :D
  • Options
    PJHPJH Posts: 609
    IDS candidate for smallest majority successfully defended?
This discussion has been closed.