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It’s looking like ajockalypse now for the SNP in the early results – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,115
edited July 5 in General
It’s looking like ajockalypse now for the SNP in the early results – politicalbetting.com

Paisley and Renfrewshire South:Labour: 19583 (47.4%, +21.6)SNP: 13056 (31.6%, -18.1)Reform UK: 2956 (7.2%, +7.2)Conservative: 2219 (5.4%, -12.8)Green: 1724 (4.2%, new)Lib Dem: 1315 (3.2%, -3)Independent: 317 (0.8%)Freedom Alliance: 113 (0.3%,)Labour GAIN from SNP pic.twitter.com/AsAt95hmk2

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Comments

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,664
    First like Labour
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 960
    Con Gain Leicester east!
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Grant Shapps looks like he's about to cry
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,874
    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239
    Is Leicester E the first Labour loss?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,652
    Bristol Central, where are yooooo!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,183
    Con gain in Leicester East!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Just to expand on the header - 4th, 11th, and 16th safest SNP seats all swept away by thousands (5k, 6k, 6.5k Lab majorities (not respectively)).
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 960
    Casino_Royale said:

    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.

    Harrow East must be a Tory hold
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Con hold Wyre Forest by just 812!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,191
    Pro_Rata said:

    Is Leicester E the first Labour loss?

    Yes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    Leicester East -> Con gain

    Con 14,526
    Lab 10,100
    LD 6,329
    Ind Webbe 5,532
    Ind Vaz 3,681
    Ref 2,611
    Grn 2,143
    Ind 974
    Ind 703
    Ind 115

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001326
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    IDS winning is more Starmer's fault than Shaheen - basically a statistical tie between her and the Labour candidate and it was the party that decided to chuck her for no reason
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    edited July 5
    As well as the Lab/Con/Ref story, this election is kind of a reversal of 2015.

    Lib-Dem 2015 wipeout, reversed. SNP tsunami, reversed.

    In politics, nothing is forever...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,727
    Nunu5 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.

    Harrow East must be a Tory hold
    IDS won because Shaheen was as popular as the official Labour candidate, that’s all. Doesn’t say anything about Harrow
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Sorry, am still reeling from Hexham going Labour. Even Tony B didn't manage that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,697
    SNP hold Aberdeen North.

    BOO
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,727
    Schnapps blaming internal Tory divisions and infighting
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sorry, am still reeling from Hexham going Labour. Even Tony B didn't manage that.

    Ya joker from Hexham. Indeed quite the result.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Con hold Sleaford
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    How on earth did Claudia Webbe get five and a half thousand votes?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    MikeL said:

    Con hold Wyre Forest by just 812!

    That was always likely to be close.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639
    Nunu5 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.

    Harrow East must be a Tory hold
    DYOR, but there were two former Labour MPs standing against Labour, and I'd reflect on whether Harrow East has already had this phenomenon baked in during the 2010s.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    rcs1000 said:

    SNP hold Aberdeen North.

    BOO

    That's Aberdeen City North. Not Aberdeenshire North & Moray East. I think.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    viewcode said:

    Bristol Central, where are yooooo!

    We kept being told earlier it was an easy Green win but maybe it's much closer.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Ghedebrav said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sorry, am still reeling from Hexham going Labour. Even Tony B didn't manage that.

    Ya joker from Hexham. Indeed quite the result.
    Doesn't bode well for AMT in North Northumberland next door.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,727
    viewcode said:

    Bristol Central, where are yooooo!

    Green win for sure
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Andy_JS said:

    MikeL said:

    Con hold Wyre Forest by just 812!

    That was always likely to be close.
    Indeed, down to the [STOP IT!]
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    JC - So far, the Conservatives have been losing every seat where their lead over Labour was less than 30%. Similarly, the party has also lost every seat it has been defending against the Liberal Democrats where the majority was less than 30%.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,697
    El_Capitano said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SNP hold Aberdeen North.

    BOO

    That's Aberdeen City North. Not Aberdeenshire North & Moray East. I think.
    YAY!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,727
    South Cambs LD
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Which PBer(s) said it was a boring election???
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,120
    edited July 5
    MikeL said:

    Con hold Wyre Forest by just 812!

    Exit poll had 71% chance of Labour gain. Labour having a rocky run here - initially looked to be outperforming exit poll, but doesn't look that way now. Although Scotland looks strong.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,758
    Very tight still in ANME.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,976
    148grss said:

    IDS winning is more Starmer's fault than Shaheen - basically a statistical tie between her and the Labour candidate and it was the party that decided to chuck her for no reason

    Indeed, though IDS was also a good constituency MP and can now try and reintroduce his death by dangerous cycling bill as a private members' bill
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    El_Capitano said:

    Oxfordshire looking exceptionally good for the LibDems.

    I'm relying on Henley to make my night, so fingers crossed.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Is that Andrea Jenkyns gone?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    Farage looking very unhappy at his count (pictures now on ITV)
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Why do they keep showing endless speeches from candidates which are always identical and bland when they could be showing results?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 742
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sorry, am still reeling from Hexham going Labour. Even Tony B didn't manage that.

    It was like that in most of the MRPs (iirc) so am pretty relaxed. I'm going to blame the sugar tax. Not because it's true but because I hate it. The most important product produced in Hexham is Fentimans, most of which's drinks are now undrinkable since they changed the formulation to use steviol rather than sugar.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,677
    @PaulGoodmanCH

    Leicester East is a terrible warning of British politics dividing on communal lines - with the Conservatives becoming the party of India and Israel, and Labour that of Pakistan and Palestine. No good can come of it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    Labour gains

    Bracknell
    Hexham
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,191
    edited July 5
    Blair McDougall took East Renfrewshire off the SNP on a 24.7% swing.

    SNP getting squished is another big story of the night.

    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1809049434358984919
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Bad news for Grant Shapps, but Michael Green, Sebastian Fox and Corinne Stockheath all still have a chance.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    JC - So far, the Conservatives have been losing every seat where their lead over Labour was less than 30%. Similarly, the party has also lost every seat it has been defending against the Liberal Democrats where the majority was less than 30%.

    Going to be hilarious the arguments over whether the SNP or Tories lost worst this election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,770
    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,279
    Scot Lab are going to outpoll rUK Labour aren't they? :lol:
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,843
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    MikeL said:

    Con hold Wyre Forest by just 812!

    Exit poll had 71% chance of Labour gain. Labour having a rocky run here - initially looked to be outperforming exit poll, but doesn't look that way now. Although Scotland looks strong.
    As noted above, it’s the Shires (to use shorthand). The bits that aren’t overly LibDem or Reform.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    Makerfield

    Lab 18,202
    Ref 12,803

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001350
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,677
    Andrea Jenkyns out :)
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Pulpstar said:

    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...

    Be v surprised if he hasn’t, but would be top bantz.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639
    Ynys Mon goes Plaid.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ANOTHER TORY GAIN.

    Andrea Jenkyns has lost.

    George Osborne just broke that news to Ed Balls.

    Ed Balls: "You had her introduce your conference speech in 2015. You weren't such a fan of hers afterwards..."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,770
    Zahawi out !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Pulpstar said:

    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...

    Could just be a dodgy pint?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,478
    Casino_Royale said:

    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.

    Hmm. I backed IDS but backed Vaz twice in Leicester East when I meant to back Vaz plus the winner. Ah well, I've had worse days.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    Scott_xP said:

    Andrea Jenkyns out :)

    Awesome! :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,191
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ANOTHER TORY GAIN.

    Andrea Jenkyns has lost.

    George Osborne just broke that news to Ed Balls.

    Ed Balls: "You had her introduce your conference speech in 2015. You weren't such a fan of hers afterwards..."
    I helped her win in 2015.

    I will never forgive myself for that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited July 5
    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi out !

    Huh...he wasn't standing.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,982
    Tories take Leicester East on just 31.1% of the vote. That's FPTP with the vote being split all over the place.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,584
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    IDS winning is more Starmer's fault than Shaheen - basically a statistical tie between her and the Labour candidate and it was the party that decided to chuck her for no reason

    Indeed, though IDS was also a good constituency MP and can now try and reintroduce his death by dangerous cycling bill as a private members' bill
    Or do something useful with the extra term as an MP the Labour infighting in the constituency has gifted him.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,677
    ...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,727
    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi out !

    Not standing
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi out !

    Stood down
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Aberdeen North has gone SNP by 1.7k votes. Their second safest seat with a majority of 14.2k pre-election. All evidence pointing towards low single digits for the SNP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,191
    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi out !

    He wasn't standing?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,982
    This election is bonkers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    Big swing from LD to Green in Cambridge.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001149
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    Pulpstar said:

    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...

    Better than any other possible Portillo moment, if so...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Sky demonstrating that uniform swing is bollocks. Of course.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited July 5
    I am still a bit confused how Starmer seat was down over 30% on turn out compared to usual.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,770
    Rugby gone.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,677
    @hannahbechITV

    The @LibDems have made history by unseating the @Conservatives
    in #stratforduponavon for the first time since 1950.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,052
    Penny Out
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660
    LD gain Stratford.

    Shakespeare would have been a Lib Dem
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    EPG said:

    Ynys Mon goes Plaid.

    Tories lose it but only by 637 votes, closer than expected.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/W07000112
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,697
    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...

    Be v surprised if he hasn’t, but would be top bantz.
    I'd be staggered if Farage didn't win.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,507
    Pulpstar said:

    Not 100% sure Farage has won here, body language looks a bit...

    I had a crafty £2 on Lab to come through the middle here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,770
    South Holland held.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,727
    edited July 5
    Breaking - Newton Abbot now has a LibDem MP

    An apology from @Heathener for accusing me of dishonesty and ramping would be nice
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,982
    Labour gain Hexham and Bracknell and lose Leicester East.

    It's mad out there.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    Newton Abbot LibDem gain! @Heathener we tried.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    LD gain -> Newton Abbot

    LD 15201
    Con 12955
    Lab 8494

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001381
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 960
    IanB2 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    On both a Con Gain in Leicester East and an IDS hold.

    They were great tips.

    Harrow East must be a Tory hold
    IDS won because Shaheen was as popular as the official Labour candidate, that’s all. Doesn’t say anything about Harrow
    I'm talking about Leicester east. Tories must be holding on to a chunk of the Hindu vote and labour losing Muslims
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Con hold South Holland & Deepings
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    wooliedyed said:

    Newton Abbott LD gain

    BRING IT
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,843
    Oh god. Corbyn rant incoming.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660
    It seems the Midlands is the really big Labour story this election. The big economic winner in the mid 2010s, probably the biggest loser of all the regions since Brexit and Covid.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited July 5
    wooliedyed said:

    Newton Abbott LD gain

    Well done @IanB2 and @ClippP

    Reform 8,500. No wonder Farage held a rally there.

    Anyway, really glad Anne Morris has been booted out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,727
    edited July 5
    Islington S - Corby wins with 24,000, Labour 16,800
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    Sounds like Corbyn has won.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    Corbyn has pissed it. Was obvious.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am still a bit confused how Starmer seat was down over 30% on turn out compared to usual.

    The seat is smaller now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,208
    AlsoLei said:

    Farage looking very unhappy at his count (pictures now on ITV)

    Imagine if Lee is the Lee-der of his Party in Parliament....
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Corbyn looking good…
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    Jezza!!!! :D
  • PJHPJH Posts: 636
    IDS candidate for smallest majority successfully defended?
This discussion has been closed.