Voting done. It was the most brisk I've ever seen it in any election I've ever voted in, but then again it was about 5:30pm.
For the first time in twenty years voted red instead of blue.
As well as a negative vote against Sunak and the incompetence of the Tories in recent years, that's a positive vote for Starmer and Reeves promising planning reform and more housing.
I fully expect to be disappointed, but if we get planning reform, its exactly what this country needs - and policies over party, I'm willing to lend my vote to Labour if they're going to do the right thing.
You, Bart, are my bellwether. I don't need opinion polls.
I've been telling everybody I know: Barty Bobs is voting Labour. Extraordinary. It's in the bag. Kudos to you.
Barty and Gin voted Labour. Wish I'd had a bet on that double three years ago!
Post work surge to vote is reminiscent of the Brexit referendum vote.
Matches what I observed when I voted, never seen it that brisk at any polling station I've voted in before (though in 2016 I was on paternity leave and voted quite early not after work).
Though of course this is the first General Election since I moved here so it could be normal, but it felt brisk.
Didn't ask the teller, normally do but it was that busy I didn't want to mess anyone around.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
TV. BBC for the theme tune. Mobile on PB.
Probably switch the volume off on the TV unless something worth watching.
Or switch it off. During the referendum I switched off TV and got all my reports from PB as I got irritated by the windbags on the panel. You don't really need anything else.
Don't you want to see the drama written on all those faces?
I LOVED the anguish of the Remainers, I drank their tears. It was cold cold lovely revenge after all their cheating and lying for decades
They will get their own revenge now, but I don't give a fuck. We Brexited, and we will never return
Firstly, of course we will return although it’s true that you may be dead before it happens, old man.
Secondly, you were a Remainer until 20 metres from the polling station.
Nothing you post is believable and everything is about you. You’re a sad old man embittered because the world no longer wants to read your tawdry tales of male sexual predation.
We've been through this, petal. I earn more than the PM (by salary!). I just had lunch with my agent at the Groucho, today, where we discussed the likely screen adaptation of my flint knapping memoirs, and the worldwide sales of my new flint knapping guide, already bought by several territories (Poland, Finland, Germany, etc). Sorry
She also gave me brilliant gossip about Starmer, which might unsettle your feminist perspective on the Great Leader manque
Petal???? Even for a seedy old roue like yourself that´s unneccessarily patronising..
The Groucho´s Bernard Manning, Ladies and Gentlemen... slightly less dead, but he´s here all week.
So, she's allowed to call me any name under the sun - "sad, embittered old man, a male sexual predator" etc etc (which is all fine, I don't mind a bit of argy bargy- but note: she started it). But if I dare to call her "petal" in response, somehow I'm the bad guy? Petal???
Knocked off work now and watching The Death Of Stalin. Seems appropes.
Is that live?
Netflix
Just a brilliant film Zhukov steals the show.
Everyone says that but to my mind Simon Russell Beale as Beria is the most brilliant. He perfects "dickhead".
He is very good too. A perfect depiction of evil. He cheerfully saying how enthusiastic the women were trying to save their husbands lives utterly futilely was shocking.
No itv is generally better and faster though i will watch the exit poll on the bbc.
I’m somewhat off-put by the the 3 panellists they have selected:
George Osborne
Ed Balls
Nicola Sturgeon
Could be worse. Channel 4 have mad Nads.
I might switch over for a laugh, but no way for extended viewing.
Radio 4 is the best combination of relaxing and comprehensive. Not the fastest, but is compatible with going to bed, which these days is a substantial factor for me.
Might switch occasionally to Times Radio to see what it's like.
Post work surge to vote is reminiscent of the Brexit referendum vote.
Matches what I observed when I voted, never seen it that brisk at any polling station I've voted in before (though in 2016 I was on paternity leave and voted quite early not after work).
Though of course this is the first General Election since I moved here so it could be normal, but it felt brisk.
Didn't ask the teller, normally do but it was that busy I didn't want to mess anyone around.
I wonder who it benefits. It could be people voting who never vote.
There's the usual mix of village halls, churches, etc. But I notice Carlton has 'Caravan' as the place. A bit far for me to go and see what that means...
Knocked off work now and watching The Death Of Stalin. Seems appropes.
Is that live?
Netflix
Just a brilliant film Zhukov steals the show.
Everyone says that but to my mind Simon Russell Beale as Beria is the most brilliant. He perfects "dickhead".
He is very good too. A perfect depiction of evil. He cheerfully saying how enthusiastic the women were trying to save their husbands lives utterly futilely was shocking.
Michael Palin is brilliant too. What a fine straight actor he is. See also GBH, Brazil. Pity he didn't do more of it.
But also well odds on (1.61) to get over 60 seats.
Obviously both are entirely possible but would seem extraordinarily efficient.
The sick thing is, that "efficiency" is still low. 9.5% of the seats on 11% of the vote. Shows how unbalanced our system really is that this is an achievement (and it really is).
That still strikes me as unlikely in terms of vote efficiency for the Lib Dems. Their high water mark was 62 seats in 2005, but that was on 22%. Conservatives are much lower now with the RefUK fissure, and Labour have been helpful in terms of tacit support for tactical voting and avoiding more than a couple of red on gold scraps. But it would be VERY efficient and there is value in below 60.
The most insanely efficient was SNP in 2015. 56 seats on 4.7% of the vote.
Sure, but there's an obvious reason for that in that the nature of the SNP means they have *zero* wasted votes in places they can't win (i.e. nearly 600 seats in the rest of the UK). Inevitably, quite a bit of the Lib Dem vote will be in the 500+ seats where they are standing aren't in serious contention - it'll be 5% here and 10% there, but it adds up to a lot. There are only about 100 where the votes could conceivably elect a Lib Dem MP.
I'd also note the SNP weren't the most insanely efficient. The recently departed Dr Richard Taylor and his Kidderminster Health Concern secured an impressive 0.15% of MPs in 2005, on merely 0.04% of the national vote. Massively more efficient.
While we're all rightly obsessed with domestic politics today, I did notice two things on BF Exchange -
1. Harris is approaching crossover with Biden for being the Dem nominee, 2.5 for Biden vs 2.8 for Harris. 2. Harris is already shorter odds (7) to be Presidential Winner 2024 than Biden (8.6) - Trump trading at 1.69.
But also well odds on (1.61) to get over 60 seats.
Obviously both are entirely possible but would seem extraordinarily efficient.
The sick thing is, that "efficiency" is still low. 9.5% of the seats on 11% of the vote. Shows how unbalanced our system really is that this is an achievement (and it really is).
That still strikes me as unlikely in terms of vote efficiency for the Lib Dems. Their high water mark was 62 seats in 2005, but that was on 22%. Conservatives are much lower now with the RefUK fissure, and Labour have been helpful in terms of tacit support for tactical voting and avoiding more than a couple of red on gold scraps. But it would be VERY efficient and there is value in below 60.
Yes, I think the value on the lower ranges for the LDs is right.
I would say 45-49. We're not going to get all our targets.
Knocked off work now and watching The Death Of Stalin. Seems appropes.
Is that live?
Netflix
Just a brilliant film Zhukov steals the show.
Everyone says that but to my mind Simon Russell Beale as Beria is the most brilliant. He perfects "dickhead".
He is very good too. A perfect depiction of evil. He cheerfully saying how enthusiastic the women were trying to save their husbands lives utterly futilely was shocking.
It's a wildly popular film with the Central/Eastern European folk I know. I hadn't given it any particular thought until I was recommending some old UK satire to them and they recognised Armando's name and then it was "OMG THAT FILM WAS THE BEST!". (With quite a bit more swearing about the Soviets that I'll refrain from posting...)
While we're all rightly obsessed with domestic politics today, I did notice two things on BF Exchange -
1. Harris is approaching crossover with Biden for being the Dem nominee, 2.5 for Biden vs 2.8 for Harris. 2. Harris is already shorter odds (7) to be Presidential Winner 2024 than Biden (8.6) - Trump trading at 1.69.
Harris was clear favourite for nomination at one point yesterday - around 2.2 for a fair while.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I don't have live TV anymore so will probably stream Sky News via YouTube on the TV.
Laptop on PB.com
At 10pm I'll probably stop refreshing PB for a minute or so as expect the stream to be delayed a few seconds and don't want to see it on here before I see the result. Be like getting a goal alert on the phone before seeing it while streaming.
Sky will have the exit poll won't they? Normally past years watched the exit poll on the Beeb but don't have BBC/licence fee anymore.
While we're all rightly obsessed with domestic politics today, I did notice two things on BF Exchange -
1. Harris is approaching crossover with Biden for being the Dem nominee, 2.5 for Biden vs 2.8 for Harris. 2. Harris is already shorter odds (7) to be Presidential Winner 2024 than Biden (8.6) - Trump trading at 1.69.
Does anyone think a high turnout could be anything other than bad for the Tories?
Not normally, but a lot of people were suggesting many disgruntled Tories - who are the former Tory-voting Don’t Knows in the polls - might sit this one out. A high turnout means they aren’t - and therefore those polls that have weighted the DKs back toward their previous voting behaviour will be closer than those who have just left them out. Maybe the supermajority line is working out?
While we're all rightly obsessed with domestic politics today, I did notice two things on BF Exchange -
1. Harris is approaching crossover with Biden for being the Dem nominee, 2.5 for Biden vs 2.8 for Harris. 2. Harris is already shorter odds (7) to be Presidential Winner 2024 than Biden (8.6) - Trump trading at 1.69.
Post work surge to vote is reminiscent of the Brexit referendum vote.
Matches what I observed when I voted, never seen it that brisk at any polling station I've voted in before (though in 2016 I was on paternity leave and voted quite early not after work).
Though of course this is the first General Election since I moved here so it could be normal, but it felt brisk.
Didn't ask the teller, normally do but it was that busy I didn't want to mess anyone around.
I wonder who it benefits. It could be people voting who never vote.
After work voting?
Labour/Lib Dems will be the beneficiaries IMHO.
Reform/Tories will be mainly daytime/postal pensioner voting this year.
While we're all rightly obsessed with domestic politics today, I did notice two things on BF Exchange -
1. Harris is approaching crossover with Biden for being the Dem nominee, 2.5 for Biden vs 2.8 for Harris. 2. Harris is already shorter odds (7) to be Presidential Winner 2024 than Biden (8.6) - Trump trading at 1.69.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
TV. BBC for the theme tune. Mobile on PB.
Probably switch the volume off on the TV unless something worth watching.
Or switch it off. During the referendum I switched off TV and got all my reports from PB as I got irritated by the windbags on the panel. You don't really need anything else.
Don't you want to see the drama written on all those faces?
I LOVED the anguish of the Remainers, I drank their tears. It was cold cold lovely revenge after all their cheating and lying for decades
They will get their own revenge now, but I don't give a fuck. We Brexited, and we will never return
Firstly, of course we will return although it’s true that you may be dead before it happens, old man.
Secondly, you were a Remainer until 20 metres from the polling station.
Nothing you post is believable and everything is about you. You’re a sad old man embittered because the world no longer wants to read your tawdry tales of male sexual predation.
We've been through this, petal. I earn more than the PM (by salary!). I just had lunch with my agent at the Groucho, today, where we discussed the likely screen adaptation of my flint knapping memoirs, and the worldwide sales of my new flint knapping guide, already bought by several territories (Poland, Finland, Germany, etc). Sorry
She also gave me brilliant gossip about Starmer, which might unsettle your feminist perspective on the Great Leader manque
Petal???? Even for a seedy old roue like yourself that´s unneccessarily patronising..
The Groucho´s Bernard Manning, Ladies and Gentlemen... slightly less dead, but he´s here all week.
So, she's allowed to call me any name under the sun - "sad, embittered old man, a male sexual predator" etc etc (which is all fine, I don't mind a bit of argy bargy- but note: she started it). But if I dare to call her "petal" in response, somehow I'm the bad guy? Petal???
Do fuck off, you wanking little gnome
You really "lunched well" didn´t you?
But, please don´t project onto other people what we already know is well known to be true about yourself. Its a bit too classic Trumpian.
So back from work, I’ve just had some salad for tea and off to cast my vote, which will be for former MP Matthew Green in South Shropshire. I’ll wash that down with a pint of Wye Valley HPA in the pub opposite our polling station.
Seeing as it’s a thing….
1987 - Harrogate - SDP 1992 - Tayside North - SNP (for John Swinney (!) who took it in 97) 1997 - North Norfolk - Lib Dem (for Norman Lamb who took it in 01) 2001 - Ludlow - Lib Dem 2005 - Ludlow - Lib Dem (my only winning vote, for Matthew Green) 2010 - Ludlow - Lib Dem 2015 - Ludlow - Lib Dem 2017 - Ludlow - Labour (for Julia Buckley, who will take Shrewsbury for Labour tonight, NB this was for a Labour version of Brexit, not for Jezza) 2019 - Ludlow - Lib Dem 2024 - South Shropshire - Lib Dem (will Matthew stage a reprise?)
Post work surge to vote is reminiscent of the Brexit referendum vote.
Matches what I observed when I voted, never seen it that brisk at any polling station I've voted in before (though in 2016 I was on paternity leave and voted quite early not after work).
Though of course this is the first General Election since I moved here so it could be normal, but it felt brisk.
Didn't ask the teller, normally do but it was that busy I didn't want to mess anyone around.
I wonder who it benefits. It could be people voting who never vote.
Edinburgh South West, 6PM - unless postal voting is 40%+, turnout looks pretty low. A trickle of homeward bound commuters and shoppers beginning to come in.
Knocked off work now and watching The Death Of Stalin. Seems appropes.
Is that live?
Netflix
Just a brilliant film Zhukov steals the show.
Everyone says that but to my mind Simon Russell Beale as Beria is the most brilliant. He perfects "dickhead".
He is very good too. A perfect depiction of evil. He cheerfully saying how enthusiastic the women were trying to save their husbands lives utterly futilely was shocking.
Michael Palin is brilliant too. What a fine straight actor he is. See also GBH, Brazil. Pity he didn't do more of it.
GBH was fabulous. But he was also fantastic in A Fish Called Wanda.
Does anyone think a high turnout could be anything other than bad for the Tories?
Not normally, but a lot of people were suggesting many disgruntled Tories - who are the former Tory-voting Don’t Knows in the polls - might sit this one out. A high turnout means they aren’t - and therefore those polls that have weighted the DKs back toward their previous voting behaviour will be closer than those who have just left them out. Maybe the supermajority line is working out?
Or just as easily it could be folk turning out in greater than anticipated numbers to make sure that the Tories get the boot. We haven't a clue, have we?
There's the usual mix of village halls, churches, etc. But I notice Carlton has 'Caravan' as the place. A bit far for me to go and see what that means...
We used to have a mini portacabin that was lifted into the pub car park for polling day, as there was nowhere else available in that polling district and you can’t use pubs. It was so small that there was only room for one voter to go on at a time, which was a shame when the rain was heavy. Maybe the caravan is similar?
Post work surge to vote is reminiscent of the Brexit referendum vote.
Matches what I observed when I voted, never seen it that brisk at any polling station I've voted in before (though in 2016 I was on paternity leave and voted quite early not after work).
Though of course this is the first General Election since I moved here so it could be normal, but it felt brisk.
Didn't ask the teller, normally do but it was that busy I didn't want to mess anyone around.
I wonder who it benefits. It could be people voting who never vote.
Last bet review. This is where I am, hoping for smallish but reliable-ish winnings. Not unhappy I think. I've avoided too many late constituency bets.
Hoped to be the bankers for between a stake saver and £200-300 each:
Labour fewer votes than 2017: 9 Reform voteshare - various covering 0% to 14%. Good odds up to 39, stake savers either end. Tory Seats - various covering 50 to 300 seats. Again, good in the middle, stake savers each end.
Easter Eggs and Fun Money - going to charity.
About 5 constituency bets. Rishi Sunk still to be Con leader in 2025 @ 40
And a couple of "Rishis" ie already sunk.
£5 on Angela Rayner not to be Lab leader at the next Election, which I though meant 2028-9. Reform zero seats some time ago.
Decisions:
Do I need to strength up any of my "end of ranges"? Any opportunities that come up. Suggestions are welcome. Timing of pheasant consumption.
What's the oddest polling station people here have voted at? I once voted in a polling station that was literally someone's front room.
On my bike ride at 11.00 this morning I passed a local village pub (The White Swan, Conington), which is also the polling station. A couple of people were sitting on a bench outside drinking something. And on a drive through rural Bedfordshire, there were polling station signs outside a church and another outside a village hall.
My own polling station is a cricket pavilion. In fact, both the village's cricket pavilions are polling station today, as is what passes for the village hall.
My polling station used to be a local pub; now it is a set of dancing studios / suites, where they do large monthly Northern Soul events.
“Really quiet, was quite busy before 10am but dribs and drabs since then”
Interesting. This is Starmer’s constituency - so not much enthusiasm for the PM himself. But then this is Primrose Hill so maybe everyone’s eating lobster Thermidor before they vote at 9.45pm
Post work surge to vote is reminiscent of the Brexit referendum vote.
Matches what I observed when I voted, never seen it that brisk at any polling station I've voted in before (though in 2016 I was on paternity leave and voted quite early not after work).
Though of course this is the first General Election since I moved here so it could be normal, but it felt brisk.
Didn't ask the teller, normally do but it was that busy I didn't want to mess anyone around.
I wonder who it benefits. It could be people voting who never vote.
After work voting?
Labour/Lib Dems will be the beneficiaries IMHO.
Reform/Tories will be mainly daytime/postal pensioner voting this year.
Maybe. But they would vote after work in 2017, and 2019. Question is what's changed compared to those elections
Post work surge to vote is reminiscent of the Brexit referendum vote.
Matches what I observed when I voted, never seen it that brisk at any polling station I've voted in before (though in 2016 I was on paternity leave and voted quite early not after work).
Though of course this is the first General Election since I moved here so it could be normal, but it felt brisk.
Didn't ask the teller, normally do but it was that busy I didn't want to mess anyone around.
I wonder who it benefits. It could be people voting who never vote.
After work voting?
Labour/Lib Dems will be the beneficiaries IMHO.
Reform/Tories will be mainly daytime/postal pensioner voting this year.
Maybe. But they would vote after work in 2017, and 2019. Question is what's changed compared to those elections
Corbyn's gone and a desire to kick the Tories out?
Does anyone think a high turnout could be anything other than bad for the Tories?
Not normally, but a lot of people were suggesting many disgruntled Tories - who are the former Tory-voting Don’t Knows in the polls - might sit this one out. A high turnout means they aren’t - and therefore those polls that have weighted the DKs back toward their previous voting behaviour will be closer than those who have just left them out. Maybe the supermajority line is working out?
However. A high proportion of working people turning out after work does not suggest good news for the Tories. That simply isn't their demographic. A surge in postal votes would. But we don't have that information. We'll know soon enough anyways.
The one I always remember was Indyref. Pretty much everyone had voted by lunchtime. The numbers we were monitoring at various polling stations just didn’t really move from about 12 to 10pm. It was weird. We had a big GOTV organisation set up but we were struggling for targets. It was the most important and stressful vote of my lifetime.
Does anyone think a high turnout could be anything other than bad for the Tories?
Not normally, but a lot of people were suggesting many disgruntled Tories - who are the former Tory-voting Don’t Knows in the polls - might sit this one out. A high turnout means they aren’t - and therefore those polls that have weighted the DKs back toward their previous voting behaviour will be closer than those who have just left them out. Maybe the supermajority line is working out?
Or just as easily it could be folk turning out in greater than anticipated numbers to make sure that the Tories get the boot. We haven't a clue, have we?
We haven’t, although what pollsters are assuming for the dont knows is a critical piece of data. We know from the data that something like two thirds of them voted Tory in 2019.
There’s a potential explanation for an upset right there.
Of course we don’t know that they will break heavily for the Tories, despite most of them voting Tory last time. We don’t know anything else about them, since they’ve been telling the pollsters they don’t know. It just looks possible that a good number of them have voted.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
TV. BBC for the theme tune. Mobile on PB.
Probably switch the volume off on the TV unless something worth watching.
Or switch it off. During the referendum I switched off TV and got all my reports from PB as I got irritated by the windbags on the panel. You don't really need anything else.
Don't you want to see the drama written on all those faces?
I LOVED the anguish of the Remainers, I drank their tears. It was cold cold lovely revenge after all their cheating and lying for decades
They will get their own revenge now, but I don't give a fuck. We Brexited, and we will never return
Firstly, of course we will return although it’s true that you may be dead before it happens, old man.
Secondly, you were a Remainer until 20 metres from the polling station.
Nothing you post is believable and everything is about you. You’re a sad old man embittered because the world no longer wants to read your tawdry tales of male sexual predation.
We've been through this, petal. I earn more than the PM (by salary!). I just had lunch with my agent at the Groucho, today, where we discussed the likely screen adaptation of my flint knapping memoirs, and the worldwide sales of my new flint knapping guide, already bought by several territories (Poland, Finland, Germany, etc). Sorry
She also gave me brilliant gossip about Starmer, which might unsettle your feminist perspective on the Great Leader manque
Petal???? Even for a seedy old roue like yourself that´s unneccessarily patronising..
The Groucho´s Bernard Manning, Ladies and Gentlemen... slightly less dead, but he´s here all week.
So, she's allowed to call me any name under the sun - "sad, embittered old man, a male sexual predator" etc etc (which is all fine, I don't mind a bit of argy bargy- but note: she started it). But if I dare to call her "petal" in response, somehow I'm the bad guy? Petal???
Do fuck off, you wanking little gnome
You really "lunched well" didn´t you?
But, please don´t project onto other people what we already know is well known to be true about yourself. Its a bit too classic Trumpian.
My least favourite kind of pb commenter is the kind that likes to dish out abuse but then cries and sobs if it is returned. It is utterly effete and pathetic so I’m not surprised an inadequate bore such as yourself is cheering it on
Grow a testicle. I’d say grow a pair but that’s surely beyond you
Does anyone think a high turnout could be anything other than bad for the Tories?
Not normally, but a lot of people were suggesting many disgruntled Tories - who are the former Tory-voting Don’t Knows in the polls - might sit this one out. A high turnout means they aren’t - and therefore those polls that have weighted the DKs back toward their previous voting behaviour will be closer than those who have just left them out. Maybe the supermajority line is working out?
Or just as easily it could be folk turning out in greater than anticipated numbers to make sure that the Tories get the boot. We haven't a clue, have we?
I suppose we had better wait and see. I never feel it makes much sense to go by gut feeling rather than polling, but my gut is starting to feel it will be bad for the Tories.
PB ALERT - in honor of US Independence Day AND the UK general election, am sporting a Hawai'ian shirt featuring both the Stars and Stripes AND the Union Jack, the latter in the canton of the royal, territorial and state flag of Hawai'i.
Does anyone have a list of the 15 Reform seats forecast by the latest Survation MRP? I looked on their map but could only find about 3. Maybe the map wasn't updated or something.
PB ALERT - in honor of US Independence Day AND the UK general election, am sporting a Hawai'ian shirt featuring both the Stars and Stripes AND the Union Jack, the latter in the canton of the royal, territorial and state flag of Hawai'i.
Last bet review. This is where I am, hoping for smallish but reliable-ish winnings. Not unhappy I think. I've avoided too many late constituency bets.
Hoped to be the bankers for between a stake saver and £200-300 each:
Labour fewer votes than 2017: 9 Reform voteshare - various covering 0% to 14%. Good odds up to 39, stake savers either end. Tory Seats - various covering 50 to 300 seats. Again, good in the middle, stake savers each end.
Easter Eggs and Fun Money - going to charity.
About 5 constituency bets. Rishi Sunk still to be Con leader in 2025 @ 40
And a couple of "Rishis" ie already sunk.
£5 on Angela Rayner not to be Lab leader at the next Election, which I though meant 2028-9. Reform zero seats some time ago.
Decisions:
Do I need to strength up any of my "end of ranges"? Any opportunities that come up. Suggestions are welcome. Timing of pheasant consumption.
What's the oddest polling station people here have voted at? I once voted in a polling station that was literally someone's front room.
On my bike ride at 11.00 this morning I passed a local village pub (The White Swan, Conington), which is also the polling station. A couple of people were sitting on a bench outside drinking something. And on a drive through rural Bedfordshire, there were polling station signs outside a church and another outside a village hall.
My own polling station is a cricket pavilion. In fact, both the village's cricket pavilions are polling station today, as is what passes for the village hall.
My polling station used to be a local pub; now it is a set of dancing studios / suites, where they do large monthly Northern Soul events.
Typo: Angela Rayner still to be Labour Deputy Leader. At some high odds, but academic.
And I need to get my head around the SS with anything to do at 10:00:01pm or later.
There's the usual mix of village halls, churches, etc. But I notice Carlton has 'Caravan' as the place. A bit far for me to go and see what that means...
We used to have a mini portacabin that was lifted into the pub car park for polling day, as there was nowhere else available in that polling district and you can’t use pubs. It was so small that there was only room for one voter to go on at a time, which was a shame when the rain was heavy. Maybe the caravan is similar?
That's my guess. I'm really tempted to go over and look, but it's half an hour's drive away.
The BBC should do an election-day slot on weird polling stations.
The one I always remember was Indyref. Pretty much everyone had voted by lunchtime. The numbers we were monitoring at various polling stations just didn’t really move from about 12 to 10pm. It was weird. We had a big GOTV organisation set up but we were struggling for targets. It was the most important and stressful vote of my lifetime.
Don’t indyref have an astonishingly high turnout? So they all showed up before noon…
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
TV. BBC for the theme tune. Mobile on PB.
Probably switch the volume off on the TV unless something worth watching.
Or switch it off. During the referendum I switched off TV and got all my reports from PB as I got irritated by the windbags on the panel. You don't really need anything else.
Don't you want to see the drama written on all those faces?
I LOVED the anguish of the Remainers, I drank their tears. It was cold cold lovely revenge after all their cheating and lying for decades
They will get their own revenge now, but I don't give a fuck. We Brexited, and we will never return
Firstly, of course we will return although it’s true that you may be dead before it happens, old man.
Secondly, you were a Remainer until 20 metres from the polling station.
Nothing you post is believable and everything is about you. You’re a sad old man embittered because the world no longer wants to read your tawdry tales of male sexual predation.
We've been through this, petal. I earn more than the PM (by salary!). I just had lunch with my agent at the Groucho, today, where we discussed the likely screen adaptation of my flint knapping memoirs, and the worldwide sales of my new flint knapping guide, already bought by several territories (Poland, Finland, Germany, etc). Sorry
She also gave me brilliant gossip about Starmer, which might unsettle your feminist perspective on the Great Leader manque
Petal???? Even for a seedy old roue like yourself that´s unneccessarily patronising..
The Groucho´s Bernard Manning, Ladies and Gentlemen... slightly less dead, but he´s here all week.
So, she's allowed to call me any name under the sun - "sad, embittered old man, a male sexual predator" etc etc (which is all fine, I don't mind a bit of argy bargy- but note: she started it). But if I dare to call her "petal" in response, somehow I'm the bad guy? Petal???
Do fuck off, you wanking little gnome
You really "lunched well" didn´t you?
But, please don´t project onto other people what we already know is well known to be true about yourself. Its a bit too classic Trumpian.
My least favourite kind of pb commenter is the kind that likes to dish out abuse but then cries and sobs if it is returned. It is utterly effete and pathetic so I’m not surprised an inadequate bore such as yourself is cheering it on
Grow a testicle. I’d say grow a pair but that’s surely beyond you
Oh dear... how many lines this time? Your decadence manque is the meanderings of the classic pub bore.
Does anyone think a high turnout could be anything other than bad for the Tories?
Not normally, but a lot of people were suggesting many disgruntled Tories - who are the former Tory-voting Don’t Knows in the polls - might sit this one out. A high turnout means they aren’t - and therefore those polls that have weighted the DKs back toward their previous voting behaviour will be closer than those who have just left them out. Maybe the supermajority line is working out?
However. A high proportion of working people turning out after work does not suggest good news for the Tories. That simply isn't their demographic. A surge in postal votes would. But we don't have that information. We'll know soon enough anyways.
If they are popping in to vote with a minor route variation but on their way to their post work local drink places, and shaking a bit, then Reform could be in the zone. Tell Putin.
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Not the first day, the Tories had no seats in Scotland in 1997.
Give it a decade and they'll start to come back. The country needs an Opposition and a party of the right as well as one of the left, but the Tories need to find a One Nation Cameron style figure who will bring the party back to appealing to the whole country.
Does anyone think a high turnout could be anything other than bad for the Tories?
Not normally, but a lot of people were suggesting many disgruntled Tories - who are the former Tory-voting Don’t Knows in the polls - might sit this one out. A high turnout means they aren’t - and therefore those polls that have weighted the DKs back toward their previous voting behaviour will be closer than those who have just left them out. Maybe the supermajority line is working out?
Or just as easily it could be folk turning out in greater than anticipated numbers to make sure that the Tories get the boot. We haven't a clue, have we?
I suppose we had better wait and see. I never feel it makes much sense to go by gut feeling rather than polling, but my gut is starting to feel it will be bad for the Tories.
Also Lib Dems 60 seats or more 1.33 Lib Dems 59 seats or less 2.68
Certainly anything that suggests money going on a strong Lib Dem performance is potentially terrible news for the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are starting from so far adrift in so many of these seats - that many wins would imply mammoth swings, presumably incorporating significant tactical voting.
Con reduced to sub-100 would be richly deserved. It feels a bit too good to be true, but maybe the more outrageous predictions will turn out to be right?
Higher than expected turn out is ringing very big 1992 bells to me.
This is going to be a long and tense night.
Or 2016 bells?
My local polling station had a 10 min wait which I’ve never seen. Though my general sense is still that people are determined to vote tactically to get the Tories out..
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
And as much as the Tory Party and the ineptitude within it frustrates me, it's still the only realistic option for a centre right moderate like me. I'm not a socialist so cannot vote Labour or Lib Dem, nor am I some deranged Faragist loon.
Without a mainstream winnable centre right option then I'm disenfranchised and democracy dies for me.
That's why I'm praying for 150 and Farage sinking in the sea in Clacton but that looks fanciful and I really fear total wipeout.
Does anyone think a high turnout could be anything other than bad for the Tories?
It would be consistent with the "normally vote tory but sitting on my hands this time" contingent being smaller than expected, which if you were an optimistic tory could be good for them...
I am not saying this though. I haven't a clue. Think I can write off my zero reform seats bet though!
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Not the first day, the Tories had no seats in Scotland in 1997.
Give it a decade and they'll start to come back. The country needs an Opposition and a party of the right as well as one of the left, but the Tories need to find a One Nation Cameron style figure who will bring the party back to appealing to the whole country.
Comments
If we believe him.
Though of course this is the first General Election since I moved here so it could be normal, but it felt brisk.
Didn't ask the teller, normally do but it was that busy I didn't want to mess anyone around.
Do fuck off, you wanking little gnome
Might switch occasionally to Times Radio to see what it's like.
https://www.scambs.gov.uk/media/19569/polling-station-address-list.pdf
There's the usual mix of village halls, churches, etc. But I notice Carlton has 'Caravan' as the place. A bit far for me to go and see what that means...
Pity he didn't do more of it.
I'd also note the SNP weren't the most insanely efficient. The recently departed Dr Richard Taylor and his Kidderminster Health Concern secured an impressive 0.15% of MPs in 2005, on merely 0.04% of the national vote. Massively more efficient.
1. Harris is approaching crossover with Biden for being the Dem nominee, 2.5 for Biden vs 2.8 for Harris.
2. Harris is already shorter odds (7) to be Presidential Winner 2024 than Biden (8.6) - Trump trading at 1.69.
I would say 45-49. We're not going to get all our targets.
If you'd like to track the results yourself, we're bringing back our retro yet popular Slide-o-meter sheets.
Simply print off the sheets, grab some highlighters and mark each seat with the colour of the winning party as the results roll in:
https://x.com/ElectCalculus/status/1808915750444269983
Laptop on PB.com
At 10pm I'll probably stop refreshing PB for a minute or so as expect the stream to be delayed a few seconds and don't want to see it on here before I see the result. Be like getting a goal alert on the phone before seeing it while streaming.
Sky will have the exit poll won't they? Normally past years watched the exit poll on the Beeb but don't have BBC/licence fee anymore.
Good for democracy though.
Labour/Lib Dems will be the beneficiaries IMHO.
Reform/Tories will be mainly daytime/postal pensioner voting this year.
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1808898595216671003
If the Conservative party loses the election, which of their prime ministers since 2010 do you think will be MOST responsible?
All Britons
Boris Johnson: 28%
Rishi Sunak: 20%
Liz Truss: 18%
David Cameron: 7%
Theresa May: 3%
2019 Con voters
Liz Truss: 27%
Rishi Sunak: 22%
Boris Johnson: 20%
David Cameron: 6%
Theresa May: 6%
2019 Lab voters
Boris Johnson: 40%
Rishi Sunak: 19%
Liz Truss: 15%
David Cameron: 9%
Theresa May: 2%
Back in 1997 approx 2 million Tories sat it out compared to 1992.
But, please don´t project onto other people what we already know is well known to be true about yourself. Its a bit too classic Trumpian.
Seeing as it’s a thing….
1987 - Harrogate - SDP
1992 - Tayside North - SNP (for John Swinney (!) who took it in 97)
1997 - North Norfolk - Lib Dem (for Norman Lamb who took it in 01)
2001 - Ludlow - Lib Dem
2005 - Ludlow - Lib Dem (my only winning vote, for Matthew Green)
2010 - Ludlow - Lib Dem
2015 - Ludlow - Lib Dem
2017 - Ludlow - Labour (for Julia Buckley, who will take Shrewsbury for Labour tonight, NB this was for a Labour version of Brexit, not for Jezza)
2019 - Ludlow - Lib Dem
2024 - South Shropshire - Lib Dem (will Matthew stage a reprise?)
You’d think that Day 1 training for Russian bot farms shilling for Reform would be to learn the word ‘pub’:
fantastic in A Fish Called Wanda.
And then everyone cheered.
Hoped to be the bankers for between a stake saver and £200-300 each:
Labour fewer votes than 2017: 9
Reform voteshare - various covering 0% to 14%. Good odds up to 39, stake savers either end.
Tory Seats - various covering 50 to 300 seats. Again, good in the middle, stake savers each end.
Easter Eggs and Fun Money - going to charity.
About 5 constituency bets.
Rishi Sunk still to be Con leader in 2025 @ 40
And a couple of "Rishis" ie already sunk.
£5 on Angela Rayner not to be Lab leader at the next Election, which I though meant 2028-9.
Reform zero seats some time ago.
Decisions:
Do I need to strength up any of my "end of ranges"?
Any opportunities that come up. Suggestions are welcome.
Timing of pheasant consumption. My polling station used to be a local pub; now it is a set of dancing studios / suites, where they do large monthly Northern Soul events.
“Really quiet, was quite busy before 10am but dribs and drabs since then”
Interesting. This is Starmer’s constituency - so not much enthusiasm for the PM himself. But then this is Primrose Hill so maybe everyone’s eating lobster Thermidor before they vote at 9.45pm
Was 7.6 last night
Now 4.1 on BF Exchange
A high proportion of working people turning out after work does not suggest good news for the Tories.
That simply isn't their demographic.
A surge in postal votes would. But we don't have that information.
We'll know soon enough anyways.
We had a big GOTV organisation set up but we were struggling for targets. It was the most important and stressful vote of my lifetime.
There’s a potential explanation for an upset right there.
Of course we don’t know that they will break heavily for the Tories, despite most of them voting Tory last time. We don’t know anything else about them, since they’ve been telling the pollsters they don’t know. It just looks possible that a good number of them have voted.
Grow a testicle. I’d say grow a pair but that’s surely beyond you
Lib Dems 59 seats or less 2.68
After much consideration, looking at trends in the seat and speaking to other local people who've already voted Labour; I can safely say:
CON gain Bootle.
I thank you......
How many seats will the Conservatives win?
0-49 - 10/1
50-99 - 11/10
100-149 - 11/8
150-199 - 5/1
200-249 - 25/1
250-299 - 50/1
300-349 - 150/1
250-399 - 200/1
400+ - 200/1
Under 99.5 - 4/5
Over 99.5 - 10/11
https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/1808916466231632047
Bearish on LDs and Reform, Bullish on Tory and Lab seats and turnout.
I made a few too many too early. I really did expect some swingback that never materialised. Indeed there was swingaway against the government.
Happy to lose though if the Tories go sub 100.
And I need to get my head around the SS with anything to do at 10:00:01pm or later.
Now time to put the pheasant in the air fryer.
This is going to be a long and tense night.
I'd love it if that vile Putinist becomes an eighth time loser.
The BBC should do an election-day slot on weird polling stations.
I am going to flounce now and won't be back until Monday.
Now, if thye have come out to prevent a MegaGinormousStonkingStarmerMajority, could be very good news for the Tories.
*Very good news being a relative term. More ABH than GBH. Chinese burn without the kick in the bollocks.
I plan for the worst but hope for the best.
Which isn't ideal when you're trying to bet on this election.
They're shit.
Give it a decade and they'll start to come back. The country needs an Opposition and a party of the right as well as one of the left, but the Tories need to find a One Nation Cameron style figure who will bring the party back to appealing to the whole country.
Con reduced to sub-100 would be richly deserved. It feels a bit too good to be true, but maybe the more outrageous predictions will turn out to be right?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c134014e5djo
Without a mainstream winnable centre right option then I'm disenfranchised and democracy dies for me.
That's why I'm praying for 150 and Farage sinking in the sea in Clacton but that looks fanciful and I really fear total wipeout.
I am not saying this though. I haven't a clue. Think I can write off my zero reform seats bet though!