History suggests lawyer Starmer was always going to win this election – politicalbetting.com

System · July 4

History suggests lawyer Starmer was always going to win this election – politicalbetting.com

Writing a piece about why lawyers are awesome is a piece of epic tautology but it does have important betting related implications both today and in the future.

Read the full story here

kle4 · July 4

There's always a place for lawyers.

BatteryCorrectHorse · July 4

Oh great more tripe.

Tweedledee · July 4

PRIMA inter pares

Dopermean · July 4

I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.

Pulpstar · July 4

With zis tripe you are really trolling us, Mr Eagles.

TheScreamingEagles · July 4

Tweedledee said:
PRIMA inter pares

Blooming autocorrect

BartholomewRoberts · July 4

Ever since Germany surrendered in World War II every time at a UK general election when Labour or the Tories have been led by a lawyer facing a non lawyer as their opponent the lawyer has always won except when both parties were led by lawyers.

This was clearly written by a lawyer and not a logistician.

How many times has a lawyer faced a non lawyer while both parties were led by lawyers?

Tweedledee · July 4

It's one of the most enduring principles in our great unwritten constitution that the Cambridge educated are no longer allowed to be prime minister.

TheScreamingEagles · July 4

Pulpstar said:
With zis tripe you are really trolling us, Mr Eagles.

Hey, since when is using facts trolling.

Tell me where I am wrong with this header?

williamglenn · July 4

Tweedledee said:
It's one of the most enduring principles in our great unwritten constitution that the Cambridge educated are no longer allowed to be prime minister.

The word Cambridge is redundant in that sentence.

MarqueeMark · July 4

Yay, only six more hours of this padding before we can get serious....

wooliedyed · July 4

Dart beats Boulter

Selebian · July 4

kle4 said:
There's always a place for lawyers.

One of Dante's nine circles?

kle4 · July 4

Selebian said:

kle4 said:
There's always a place for lawyers.
One of Dante's nine circles?

So many options. That's why I only put in the set up.

wooliedyed · July 4

MarqueeMark said:
Yay, only six more hours of this padding before we can get serious....

I've got to go out just after 7, hoping to be back for the exit poll

OldKingCole · July 4

Harold Wilson wasn't a lawyer, and was one of the best, and most successful, leaders Labour have ever had.

Andy_JS · July 4

FPT

Flatlander said:
Been to vote in Flatland Central. Pointless really - the Red Team will accumulate > 50%. I have still not seen a single election poster in the constituency and voting was anything but brisk.

Our soon to be new MP was previously a prison officer but it seems to be a union connection that got her the job which is not particularly encouraging.

I don't really want to be responsible for what comes next so I voted Con because their candidate isn't terrible and the Lib Dems are absent.

Reform are likely to be competing for second with the Tories in any case and with the longer term in mind I'd rather they were beaten into third (this is probably a forlorn hope).

If it was a marginal seat I'd have had a much more difficult choice.

If Starmer surprises on the upside I'll be as pleased as anyone but I can't say I want him to have a 250 seat majority on 38% of the vote.

I'm not aware of a former prisoner officer being an MP before, so maybe this will be a first in that way.

Found this.

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/labour-choose-prison-officer-sally-24386004

tlg86 · July 4

I'll go for:

Lab - 385
Con - 148
Lib Dem - 60
SNP - 30
PC - 3
Reform - 3
Greens - 2
NI - 18
Speaker - 1

kyf_100 · July 4

kle4 said:
There's always a place for lawyers.

Can you imagine a world without lawyers?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uG3uea-Hvy4

Taz · July 4

wooliedyed said:
Dart beats Boulter

By ‘180’ votes…..

wooliedyed · July 4

OldKingCole said:
Harold Wilson wasn't a lawyer, and was one of the best, and most successful, leaders Labour have ever had.

By a distance

wooliedyed · July 4

Taz said:

wooliedyed said:
Dart beats Boulter
By ‘180’ votes…..

Monster raving Murrays in third

BartholomewRoberts · July 4

Farooq said:

BartholomewRoberts said:
Ever since Germany surrendered in World War II every time at a UK general election when Labour or the Tories have been led by a lawyer facing a non lawyer as their opponent the lawyer has always won except when both parties were led by lawyers.

This was clearly written by a lawyer and not a logistician.

How many times has a lawyer faced a non lawyer while both parties were led by lawyers?
is a "logistician" half logician, half magician?

A logistician is someone who works in the field of logistics, but yes that's a silly autocorrect error I meant logician.

Gardenwalker · July 4

Does anyone know if the voting is brisk?

Leon · July 4

Woman teacher goes to jail for “grooming” two 15 year old schoolboys when she was 30

Awkwardly, teacher Mme Macron was more like 40 when she allegedly “groomed” the then 15 year old schoolboy Emanuel Macron (some claim he was 16, others actually 14)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jul/04/manchester-teacher-who-groomed-two-boys-jailed

Christopher · July 4

tlg86 said:
I'll go for:

Lab - 385
Con - 148
Lib Dem - 60
SNP - 30
PC - 3
Reform - 3
Greens - 2
NI - 18
Speaker - 1

looking at the present odds the yougov mrp could be pretty bang on with the conservatives around 100 seats.

Gardenwalker · July 4

On the banks of the Arno, the hotel doormen and gelateria pistachio-packers speak of nothing else but Keir “toolmaker” Starmer.

TheScreamingEagles · July 4

MarqueeMark said:
Yay, only six more hours of this padding before we can get serious....

Yes, I've got a thread on AV scheduled for 9.59pm today.

Christopher · July 4

This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
10.7K
Views

https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

Andy_JS · July 4

Tories are sending this message to supporters.

"We’re getting reports from our teams on the ground. And the more reports we get, the more it looks like turnout is higher than expected. That means we could have a MUCH better chance than polls have suggested So if you haven’t voted yet, now’s the time to get out > Don't forget to bring Photo ID. You can see which forms of ID are acceptable (here).

Yours,
CCHQ Data Team"

SandyRentool · July 4

MarqueeMark said:
Yay, only six more hours of this padding before we can get serious....

So two days then?

SirNorfolkPassmore · July 4

Dopermean said:
I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.

I wasn't on PB for that thread but the election petition stuff strikes me as complete twaddle. Election petitions (outside the area of misconduct by the winning candidate) have succeeded due to obvious counting/transcription errors and for wrongful exclusion or inclusion of votes where, quantifiably, the impact on the result is clear. An error in sending out postal votes simply wouldn't fall into that.

Returning officers can run elections more or less well... unless it's obvious how it would have affected the result, the courts are incredibly reluctant to intervene and just aren't going to uphold the petition. In this case, even less so as evidence tends to suggest postal votes tend to favour the Tories.

The only way this could affect Badenoch, realistically, is if she narrowly lost on the night when a few more postal votes might have helped her - which is possible at the very worst end of some MRPs, but highly unlikely.

EScrymgeour · July 4

Afternoon
.Bromsgrove Lib Dems £2 100/1 Loser

Shropshire South Lib Dems £5 13/5

Maidenhead Lib Dems £5 11/4

Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems £10 7/4

ANME SNP £25 13/8

Selebian · July 4

Christopher said:
This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
10.7K
Views

https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

Checks... Yep, looks like a disinterested source. Must be legit

Could still be true, of course!

Pulpstar · July 4

Andy_JS said:
Tories are sending this message to supporters.

"We’re getting reports from our teams on the ground. And the more reports we get, the more it looks like turnout is higher than expected. That means we could have a MUCH better chance than polls have suggested So if you haven’t voted yet, now’s the time to get out > Don't forget to bring Photo ID. You can see which forms of ID are acceptable (here).

Yours,
CCHQ Data Team"

Odd message to send out, pretty much all psephologists generally agree low turnout is better for the Conservatives as the incumbent party defending their record.

ManOfGwent · July 4

Christopher said:
This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
10.7K
Views

https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

Seems like a reliable source...

Gardenwalker · July 4

Apart from Labour winning but a decent margin, this election is impossible to call.

And yet, I think I’ve had too much politics. Struggling to care.

Christopher said:
This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
10.7K
Views

https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

Sounds like total bollocks, to be honest.

wooliedyed · July 4

Christopher said:
This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
10.7K
Views

https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

Lol a random Reform account 'hearing reports'

Pulpstar · July 4

Gardenwalker said:
Apart from Labour winning but a decent margin, this election is impossible to call.

And yet, I think I’ve had too much politics.
Christopher said:
This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
10.7K
Views

https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648
Sounds like total bollocks, to be honest.

Almost as believable as the CCHQ messaging.

SandyRentool · July 4

Andy_JS said:
FPT

Flatlander said:
Been to vote in Flatland Central. Pointless really - the Red Team will accumulate > 50%. I have still not seen a single election poster in the constituency and voting was anything but brisk.

Our soon to be new MP was previously a prison officer but it seems to be a union connection that got her the job which is not particularly encouraging.

I don't really want to be responsible for what comes next so I voted Con because their candidate isn't terrible and the Lib Dems are absent.

Reform are likely to be competing for second with the Tories in any case and with the longer term in mind I'd rather they were beaten into third (this is probably a forlorn hope).

If it was a marginal seat I'd have had a much more difficult choice.

If Starmer surprises on the upside I'll be as pleased as anyone but I can't say I want him to have a 250 seat majority on 38% of the vote.
I'm not aware of a former prisoner officer being an MP before, so maybe this will be a first in that way.

Found this.

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/labour-choose-prison-officer-sally-24386004

Parliament first, then prison, is the more typical route.

BartholomewRoberts · July 4

Gardenwalker said:
Apart from Labour winning but a decent margin, this election is impossible to call.

And yet, I think I’ve had too much politics. Struggling to care.

Christopher said:
This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
10.7K
Views

https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648
Sounds like total bollocks, to be honest.

And that's being polite!

Heathener · July 4

Massive lolz @TSE

Thread of the campaign

Richard_Tyndall · July 4

OldKingCole said:
Harold Wilson wasn't a lawyer, and was one of the best, and most successful, leaders Labour have ever had.

But that doesn't affect the basis of TSE's thesis as none of his opponents were lawyers either.

Andy_JS · July 4

If we had the French voting system the Tories would possibly be in danger of being reduced to 25 to 50 seats.

wooliedyed · July 4

Pulpstar said:

Andy_JS said:
Tories are sending this message to supporters.

"We’re getting reports from our teams on the ground. And the more reports we get, the more it looks like turnout is higher than expected. That means we could have a MUCH better chance than polls have suggested So if you haven’t voted yet, now’s the time to get out > Don't forget to bring Photo ID. You can see which forms of ID are acceptable (here).

Yours,
CCHQ Data Team"
Odd message to send out, pretty much all psephologists generally agree low turnout is better for the Conservatives as the incumbent party defending their record.

Bog standard GOTV messaging

Chris · July 4

Pulpstar said:

Andy_JS said:
Tories are sending this message to supporters.

"We’re getting reports from our teams on the ground. And the more reports we get, the more it looks like turnout is higher than expected. That means we could have a MUCH better chance than polls have suggested So if you haven’t voted yet, now’s the time to get out > Don't forget to bring Photo ID. You can see which forms of ID are acceptable (here).

Yours,
CCHQ Data Team"
Odd message to send out, pretty much all psephologists generally agree low turnout is better for the Conservatives as the incumbent party defending their record.

Given that the Tory campaign has been essentially a negative one, I do find it difficult to believe that high turnout is a good sign for them.

kle4 · July 4

Gardenwalker said:
Apart from Labour winning but a decent margin, this election is impossible to call.

And yet, I think I’ve had too much politics. Struggling to care.

Christopher said:
This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
10.7K
Views

https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648
Sounds like total bollocks, to be honest.

Which bit? I can believe Tory HQ are in meltdown and Ministers blaming each other, but I think everyone was resigned to that already and so I don't believe senior staff have gone to ground or the PM refusing calls.

SirNorfolkPassmore · July 4

Gardenwalker said:
Does anyone know if the voting is brisk?

It was in my case - I've been writing the letter "X" since I was a little boy, and am damned good at it. So I was in and out of there in seconds.

Gardenwalker · July 4

EScrymgeour said:
Afternoon
.Bromsgrove Lib Dems £2 100/1 Loser

Shropshire South Lib Dems £5 13/5

Maidenhead Lib Dems £5 11/4

Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems £10 7/4

ANME SNP £25 13/8

If the Lib Dems can’t take Frome, why do they even bother.

Richard_Tyndall · July 4

Tweedledee said:
It's one of the most enduring principles in our great unwritten constitution that the Cambridge educated are no longer allowed to be prime minister.

And rightly so.

Taz · July 4

Christopher said:
This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
10.7K
Views

https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

I’d trust that twitter feed as soon as I’d trust a lunatic with my John Thomas and a pair of rusty shears.

twistedfirestopper3 · July 4

I hope Farage gets voted in as an MP, as that is going to blow the minds of the Reform voting conspiracy loons that have been giving me jip all day about pencils in polling booths and how a vote for STARNAK is a vote for Ukrainian domination and the WEF.
Ol' Nige becoming part of the gravy train just won't compute.

Daveyboy1961 · July 4

Taz said:

Christopher said:
This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
10.7K
Views

https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648
I’d trust that twitter feed as soon as I’d trust a lunatic with my John Thomas and a pair of rusty shears.

...love the turn of phrase there...

mwadams · July 4

Gardenwalker said:
Does anyone know if the voting is brisk?

It started out "brisk", passed "lively" and is heading towards "coquettish".

Andy_JS · July 4

Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.

Pulpstar · July 4

Andy_JS said:
If we had the French voting system the Tories would possibly be in danger of being reduced to 25 to 50 seats.

Les RepublicaTories.

FF43 · July 4

OldKingCole said:
Harold Wilson wasn't a lawyer, and was one of the best, and most successful, leaders Labour have ever had.

Non lawyer Harold Wilson won elections against two other non lawyers ( and lost one to the same non-lawyer)

@TheScreamingEagles analysis still (just about) holds.

Leon · July 4

Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….

Gardenwalker · July 4

Has anyone considered what a Reform “Shadow Cabinet” looks like?

Anne Widdecome surely overdue a position in the Lords as Shadow Minister for Being Fucking Batshit.

Though I fancy she’d face stiff competition among her fellow Refukkers for that role.

kle4 · July 4

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Dopermean said:
I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.
I wasn't on PB for that thread but the election petition stuff strikes me as complete twaddle. Election petitions (outside the area of misconduct by the winning candidate) have succeeded due to obvious counting/transcription errors and for wrongful exclusion or inclusion of votes where, quantifiably, the impact on the result is clear. An error in sending out postal votes simply wouldn't fall into that.

Returning officers can run elections more or less well... unless it's obvious how it would have affected the result, the courts are incredibly reluctant to intervene and just aren't going to uphold the petition. In this case, even less so as evidence tends to suggest postal votes tend to favour the Tories.

The only way this could affect Badenoch, realistically, is if she narrowly lost on the night when a few more postal votes might have helped her - which is possible at the very worst end of some MRPs, but highly unlikely.

I think its some weird transplanting of second hand ideas of american elections to the British context, where everything can be challenged (and even then it's not as though any potential error would mean voiding a result). I don't think even most political people have any idea how an election is actually challeneged, and that it seems very improbable entire elections get thrown out due to minor errors which don't meaningfully affect things.

See also any pseudo Jan 6th scenario - albeit much more a fringe idea - even though our election will be done and dusted by this time tomorrow, making any kind of 'stop the steal' kind of movement much harder to organise.

CatMan · July 4

kle4 said:
There's always a place for lawyers.

Can you imagine a world without lawyers?

Edit: Beaten to it by kyf_100, but I'm leaving the picture up!

Christopher · July 4

Conservatives 100 to 149 seat band has just moved out in price only marginally but still. Sub 100 seats now gone to most likely.

Heathener · July 4

Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.

Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.

Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.

Richard_Tyndall · July 4

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Dopermean said:
I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.
I wasn't on PB for that thread but the election petition stuff strikes me as complete twaddle. Election petitions (outside the area of misconduct by the winning candidate) have succeeded due to obvious counting/transcription errors and for wrongful exclusion or inclusion of votes where, quantifiably, the impact on the result is clear. An error in sending out postal votes simply wouldn't fall into that.

Returning officers can run elections more or less well... unless it's obvious how it would have affected the result, the courts are incredibly reluctant to intervene and just aren't going to uphold the petition. In this case, even less so as evidence tends to suggest postal votes tend to favour the Tories.

The only way this could affect Badenoch, realistically, is if she narrowly lost on the night when a few more postal votes might have helped her - which is possible at the very worst end of some MRPs, but highly unlikely.

Is it not possible taht she wins by a few hundred votes and her opponent makes the protest and forces the petition?

kle4 · July 4

Christopher said:
Conservatives 100 to 149 seat band has just moved out in price only marginally but still. Sub 100 seats now gone to most likely.

Makes sense to me - polling could be wrong, but a lot of it would suggest under 100 but people struggle to believe it.

Gardenwalker · July 4

Leon said:
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….

I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback.
I don’t know if it’s any good though.

Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.

Taz · July 4

mwadams said:

Gardenwalker said:
Does anyone know if the voting is brisk?
It started out "brisk", passed "lively" and is heading towards "coquettish".

Dunny-on-the-wold ?

rcs1000 · July 4

Leon said:
Woman teacher goes to jail for “grooming” two 15 year old schoolboys when she was 30

Awkwardly, teacher Mme Macron was more like 40 when she allegedly “groomed” the then 15 year old schoolboy Emanuel Macron (some claim he was 16, others actually 14)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jul/04/manchester-teacher-who-groomed-two-boys-jailed

Aren't the rules different in France?

rcs1000 · July 4

People:

Use your cross wisely. Crucify a politician.

sarissa · July 4

EScrymgeour said:
Afternoon
.Bromsgrove Lib Dems £2 100/1 Loser

Shropshire South Lib Dems £5 13/5

Maidenhead Lib Dems £5 11/4

Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems £10 7/4

ANME SNP £25 13/8

With you on ANME, also keeping an eye on thye tasty Alloa & Grangemouth Lab £28 15/8. I am convinced that the ultra-woke John Nicholson will lose votes to Alba's Kenny MacAskill (on a chicken run) and ex-Alba (!) Eva Comrie, the womens' rights champion.

carnforth · July 4

277th ranked Jacob Fearnley going toe-to-toe with Djokovic at the end of set four.

kle4 · July 4

Andy_JS said:
Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.

I guarantee if they are the only two they will not be in the same party in 5 years time. Anderson has gone from party to party in the last 7 years, Farage doesn't like to share the spotlight, and Reform even compared to other parties is not cohesive politically.

Taz · July 4

Daveyboy1961 said:

Taz said:

Christopher said:
This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
10.7K
Views

https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648
I’d trust that twitter feed as soon as I’d trust a lunatic with my John Thomas and a pair of rusty shears.
...love the turn of phrase there...

Shamelessly nicked from Blackadder III? As I’m sure viewcode would know.

Mexicanpete · July 4

Andy_JS said:
Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.

Anderson will have defected to the Workers Party by Christmas.

SandyRentool · July 4

Heathener said:
Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.

Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.

Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.

The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.

After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.

Gardenwalker · July 4

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:
Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.
Anderson will have defected to the Workers Party by Christmas.

Or defecated.

One or t’other.

Pulpstar · July 4

Andy_JS said:
Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.

I think Anderson will win. BCS is, contrary to my earlier thoughts in the month, going to outperform here (Still doubt he wins mind) picking up Reform voters as he's the incumbent and quite Reformy - Anderson will surely pick up all the Reform votes (He is Reform after all) and the Tory vote rather than the official Tory candidate as he's the incumbent.

Christopher · July 4

kle4 said:

Christopher said:
Conservatives 100 to 149 seat band has just moved out in price only marginally but still. Sub 100 seats now gone to most likely.
Makes sense to me - polling could be wrong, but a lot of it would suggest under 100 but people struggle to believe it.

Yeah i think the yougov mrp could be pretty much dead on. That leaves the question of how well reform will do though.

kle4 · July 4

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:
Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.
Anderson will have defected to the Workers Party by Christmas.

Nah, he'll form his own party.

OldKingCole · July 4

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Gardenwalker said:
Does anyone know if the voting is brisk?
It was in my case - I've been writing the letter "X" since I was a little boy, and am damned good at it. So I was in and out of there in seconds.

Even I, with my damaged hand-and -finger control can manage an X. Might not manage a repeatable signature though!

Cicero · July 4

Gardenwalker said:

Leon said:
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback.
I don’t know if it’s any good though.

Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.

Jonathan Meades On France is a superb dissection of the country.

Nigelb · July 4

Andy_JS said:
Tories are sending this message to supporters.

"We’re getting reports from our teams on the ground. And the more reports we get, the more it looks like turnout is higher than expected. That means we could have a MUCH better chance than polls have suggested So if you haven’t voted yet, now’s the time to get out > Don't forget to bring Photo ID. You can see which forms of ID are acceptable (here).

Yours,
CCHQ Data Team"

"Seems like a reliable source"...

EScrymgeour · July 4

Farage and Anderson means 5 more years of Steve Bray. Careful what you wish for.

SandyRentool · July 4

carnforth said:
277th ranked Jacob Fearnley going toe-to-toe with Djokovic at the end of set four.

Toe to toe? Nice to see two players coming to the net.

Nigelb · July 4

Farooq said:
21:59. London. Sir Keir Starmer is speaking.

"During this campaign, I've talked often about the fact my father was a toolmaker."
[amused glances between various journalists]

"Well, I thought I'd bring a couple of his old tools along with me this evening..."
[assistant walks onto the stage bearing a large black duffel bag; puzzled smiles from the journalists]

"...so you can see what my Labour government..."
[Starmer reaches into the bag with both hands. The clock ticks over to 10pm]

"...will do"
[He holds aloft a hammer and a sickle]

For one horrible moment I thought it was going to be product placement for a couple of Leon's creations.

Gardenwalker · July 4

kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:
Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.
I guarantee if they are the only two they will not be in the same party in 5 years time. Anderson has gone from party to party in the last 7 years, Farage doesn't like to share the spotlight, and Reform even compared to other parties is not cohesive politically.

But it is Nigel who keeps creating parties, each successively designed to grant him more control.

I’m expecting him to run for the “Nigel Farage’s True Reform, Featuring Nigel Farage, Performed and And Written by Nigel Farage…Party.” in the 2030s.

Leon · July 4

Gardenwalker said:

Leon said:
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback.
I don’t know if it’s any good though.

Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.

I was just considering that Petain book! Thanks - I’ll check the politics one

If you need a biography of Napoleon I thoroughly recommend Zamoyski. Smart and evocative and full of juicy stories

Richard_Tyndall · July 4

SandyRentool said:

Heathener said:
Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.

Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.

Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.
The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.

After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.

After 36 years of shift working and 24/7 on call I can sleep anywhere, anytime. Helicopters are great - an hour or two's enforced napping in a rubber suit. Trains, although the fear of missing my stop causes some sleep issues. Cars as my wife normally drives and I doze.

Though oddly I never sleep more than about 5 hours in any 24. my normal non-travelling sleep pattern is 2am to 6 or 7 am.

Pulpstar · July 4

Christopher said:

kle4 said:

Christopher said:
Conservatives 100 to 149 seat band has just moved out in price only marginally but still. Sub 100 seats now gone to most likely.
Makes sense to me - polling could be wrong, but a lot of it would suggest under 100 but people struggle to believe it.
Yeah i think the yougov mrp could be pretty much dead on. That leaves the question of how well reform will do though.

We'll know fairly early on I think, Basildon and Billericay was projected reform by an earlier MRP of theirs (Not sure if the current one does) and they're projected 18% in Blyth and Ashington - though that might be up in their latest MRP now.

SteveS · July 4

No lawyer has ever lost to a non-lawyer, until: https://xkcd.com/1122/

Leon · July 4

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
Woman teacher goes to jail for “grooming” two 15 year old schoolboys when she was 30

Awkwardly, teacher Mme Macron was more like 40 when she allegedly “groomed” the then 15 year old schoolboy Emanuel Macron (some claim he was 16, others actually 14)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jul/04/manchester-teacher-who-groomed-two-boys-jailed
Aren't the rules different in France?

The rumours surrounding the couple are wild. And I am hearing them direct from French people with knowledge

I won’t trouble your legal dept but if half of them are true…

Richard_Tyndall · July 4

Leon said:

Gardenwalker said:

Leon said:
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback.
I don’t know if it’s any good though.

Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.
I was just considering that Petain book! Thanks - I’ll check the politics one

If you need a biography of Napoleon I thoroughly recommend Zamoyski. Smart and evocative and full of juicy stories

My go to book for travelling in France is "The Wines and Winelands of France - Geological Journeys". Wine and rocks. What more can you ask for

kle4 · July 4

Leon said:

Gardenwalker said:

Leon said:
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback.
I don’t know if it’s any good though.

Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.
I was just considering that Petain book! Thanks - I’ll check the politics one

If you need a biography of Napoleon I thoroughly recommend Zamoyski. Smart and evocative and full of juicy stories

I've read that one. A good read, and it felt very even handed about his complex character.

kle4 · July 4

So, will the far right break through in the election?

In France?

Sean_F · July 4

A Lawyer with his briefcase can steal as much as a hundred men with guns.

Pulpstar · July 4

🔴 Trump 49% (+11)
🔵 Harris 38%

🔴 Trump 43% (+6)
🔵 Biden 37%

This will probably shorten Gavin Gruesome to evens or some such in the presidential market. In reality polls like this strengthen Biden, he only has to outperform Harris !

Alphabet_Soup · July 4

While we're waiting:

Markets nervous as we wait the exit poll

https://web.archive.org/web/20061022231659/http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/05/05/markets-nervous-as-we-wait-the-exit-poll/

(Comment 300 is a classic of the genre.)

Malmesbury · July 4

Farooq said:
21:59. London. Sir Keir Starmer is speaking.

"During this campaign, I've talked often about the fact my father was a toolmaker."
[amused glances between various journalists]

"Well, I thought I'd bring a couple of his old tools along with me this evening..."
[assistant walks onto the stage bearing a large black duffel bag; puzzled smiles from the journalists]

"...so you can see what my Labour government..."
[Starmer reaches into the bag with both hands. The clock ticks over to 10pm]

"...will do"
[He holds aloft a hammer and a sickle]

You mean this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOV32P59-yI

northern_monkey · July 4

Richard_Tyndall said:

SandyRentool said:

Heathener said:
Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.

Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.

Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.
The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.

After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
After 36 years of shift working and 24/7 on call I can sleep anywhere, anytime. Helicopters are great - an hour or two's enforced napping in a rubber suit. Trains, although the fear of missing my stop causes some sleep issues. Cars as my wife normally drives and I doze.

Though oddly I never sleep more than about 5 hours in any 24. my normal non-travelling sleep pattern is 2am to 6 or 7 am.

I pay good money for an enforced hour in a rubber suit

Northern_Al · July 4

With over four hours to go, anybody who thinks they have a clue about turnout is probably talking nonsense.

Having said that: I'd expect voting between 6pm and 10pm to be significantly higher than it was in 2019. Much easier to be motivated to wander down to the polling station on a summer evening than in mid-December. The parties' late knocker-uppers may also be more successful in persuading recalcitrant voters to get off their backsides.

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